Predict the 2024 AL East standings

[Randy Red Sox]

With ST winding down it is pretty much time to predict the final AL East standings even though I know many are still holding out hope that John Henry lets some of the moths out of his wallet and signs Jordan Montgomery { unlikely in my view}. I will start with my predictions.

1} Baltimore 99-63
2} NYY 94-68
3} Tampa Bay 92-70
4} Toronto 87-75
5} Boston 81-81

[moonslav59]

bal 97-65
tbr 93-69
nyy 85-77
tor 84-78
bos 82-80

[notin]

With ST winding down it is pretty much time to predict the final AL East standings even though I know many are still holding out hope that John Henry lets some of the moths out of his wallet and signs Jordan Montgomery { unlikely in my view}. I will start with my predictions.

1} Baltimore 99-63
2} NYY 94-68
3} Tampa Bay 92-70
4} Toronto 87-75
5} Boston 81-81

81-81 is not as horrible as one would think from the board traffic. It’s only 3 fewer wins than the reigning NL champions had last year.

I think this season comes down to ONE FACTOR. Just one, despite the numerous lists of things some people think need to go right for this team to compete. There’s just one.

Health/durability of the rotation. If the Sox reported starting five - Bello, Crawford, Houck, Pivetta, Whitlock - can make 140 or more starts and pitch 700-800 innings, this team will do well enough to make the postseason. Even if they miss the postseason, it won’t be by much.

But this whole season will collapse if the Sox need to dig too deep into their questionable SP depth…

[moonslav59]

81-81 is not as horrible as one would think from the board traffic. It’s only 3 fewer wins than the reigning NL champions had last year.

I think this season comes down to ONE FACTOR. Just one, despite the numerous lists of things some people think need to go right for this team to compete. There’s just one.

Health/durability of the rotation. If the Sox reported starting five - Bello, Crawford, Houck, Pivetta, Whitlock - can make 140 or more starts and pitch 700-800 innings, this team will do well enough to make the postseason. Even if they miss the postseason, it won’t be by much.

But this whole season will collapse if the Sox need to dig too deep into their questionable SP depth…

I agree, but that seems like a big ask.

140 GS is 28 by all 5.

750 IP is 150 by all 5. (Yes, one may get 180 and 3 others 140, but it's a big ask.)

I don't think our 6th and 7th SP'ers are worse than the league average, so those other 22 GS'd might not burn us. If we need 40-50 from our 6 & 7, we might not suffer much.

I like our O. (top 10-12)

I like our pen (top 10, if not taxed- top 12-14, otherwise)

Our D is improved but likely still not up to #15th.

The rotation needs to be near 15th to have any chance.

[notin]

I agree, but that seems like a big ask.

140 GS is 28 by all 5.

750 IP is 150 by all 5. (Yes, one may get 180 and 3 others 140, but it's a big ask.)

I don't think our 6th and 7th SP'ers are worse than the league average, so those other 22 GS'd might not burn us. If we need 40-50 from our 6 & 7, we might not suffer much.

I like our O. (top 10-12)

I like our pen (top 10, if not taxed- top 12-14, otherwise)

Our D is improved but likely still not up to #15th.

The rotation needs to be near 15th to have any chance.

It’s a huge ask.

My bold prediction is actually not all that bold at all. Could they all stay healthy and pitch that much? Sure. It’s possible. Will they? Not bloody likely…

[moonslav59]

It’s a huge ask.

My bold prediction is actually not all that bold at all. Could they all stay healthy and pitch that much? Sure. It’s possible. Will they? Not bloody likely…

This is one way adding 32GS and 180 IP by Monty would make a big impact.

We'd need 108 GS (27 GS not 28) from the other 4. The IP per SP'er's 2-5 would also drop from about 150 IP to about 140.

More importantly, our current #5 SP'er would be a long man in the pen, which would lessen the load for the other 7 RP'ers on the 26, at any given moment. Our current #6 and #7 would now be #7 and #8. I know you don't like numbering SP'ers, but it would allow us to fill in starts, here and there, with much better pitchers and allow for more missed starts by adding depth to our sp'er core.

[Randy Red Sox]

This is one way adding 32GS and 180 IP by Monty would make a big impact.

We'd need 108 GS (27 GS not 28) from the other 4. The IP per SP'er's 2-5 would also drop from about 150 IP to about 140.

More importantly, our current #5 SP'er would be a long man in the pen, which would lessen the load for the other 7 RP'ers on the 26, at any given moment. Our current #6 and #7 would now be #7 and #8. I know you don't like numbering SP'ers, but it would allow us to fill in starts, here and there, with much better pitchers and allow for more missed starts by adding depth to our sp'er core.

it is doubtful Montgomery would be ready by opening day even if he were to sign today

[moonslav59]

it is doubtful Montgomery would be ready by opening day even if he were to sign today

True, so maybe 29 GS and 165 IP, if signed real soon.

[Larry Cook]

1} Baltimore 104-58
2} Tampa Bay 95-67
3} Toronto 92-70
4} New York 82-80
5} Boston 70- 92

[Elktonnick]

1} Baltimore 104-58
2} Tampa Bay 95-67
3} Toronto 92-70
4} New York 82-80
5} Boston 70- 92

I am with you. The Sox lose more than they win.

[moonslav59]

I am with you. The Sox lose more than they win.

Are you with the 22 game differential, too, or are you closer to a 80-82 projection?

[****THEYANKEES]

With ST winding down it is pretty much time to predict the final AL East standings even though I know many are still holding out hope that John Henry lets some of the moths out of his wallet and signs Jordan Montgomery { unlikely in my view}. I will start with my predictions.

1} Baltimore 99-63
2} NYY 94-68
3} Tampa Bay 92-70
4} Toronto 87-75
5} Boston 81-81

i think this is pretty close but i'd have the Sox at 73-89. i just don't think they have enough pitching.

[Elktonnick]

1} Baltimore 104-58
2} Tampa Bay 95-67
3} Toronto 92-70
4} New York 82-80
5} Boston 70- 92

Are you with the 22 game differential, too, or are you closer to a 80-82 projection?

75-87 without any major injuries. With injuries they could win less the 70

[moonslav59]

75-87 without any major injuries. With injuries they could win less the 70

Certainly a reasonable projection.

[5GoldGloves:OF,75]

The Red Sox finished 12 games under .500 in the woeful 2020 summer -- that's 75-87 over an entire season... though Boston's .400 winning percentage equates more to 65 wins.

A range between 65 and 75 victories seems reasonable. Predicting playoffs is unreasonable -- and even CBO Breslow admits that. Remember, no member of the projected starting rotation has ever had one entire good season as a starting pitcher.

But the AL East will not be the mighty division many expect it to be. There will not be three playoff teams in the East, maybe only one. Baltimore won't win 100, especially with Kimbrel trying to close. Not every young talent is an instant star, and all are subject to growing pains. Toronto has the best rotation. New York's veteran starters are all injury-prone now, and will regret trading pitching prospects the past year. Tampa is depleted and due for a season of mediocre openers.

Jays 95-67
O's 92-70
Rays 81-81
Spanks 79-83
Sox 74-88