Predict the 2024 AL East standings

[notin]

The Red Sox finished 12 games under .500 in the woeful 2020 summer -- that's 75-87 over an entire season... though Boston's .400 winning percentage equates more to 65 wins.

A range between 65 and 75 victories seems reasonable. Predicting playoffs is unreasonable -- and even CBO Breslow admits that. Remember, no member of the projected starting rotation has ever had one entire good season as a starting pitcher.

But the AL East will not be the mighty division many expect it to be. There will not be three playoff teams in the East, maybe only one. Baltimore won't win 100, especially with Kimbrel trying to close. Not every young talent is an instant star, and all are subject to growing pains. Toronto has the best rotation. New York's veteran starters are all injury-prone now, and will regret trading pitching prospects the past year. Tampa is depleted and due for a season of mediocre openers.

Jays 95-67
O's 92-70
Rays 81-81
Spanks 79-83
Sox 74-88

Have you seen the other divisions?

The Central is mediocrity defined. The West? Houston and Seattle. And those teams are not without flaws as well. Defending champion Texas will start the season with more question marks in their rotation than Boston.

It wouldn’t surprise me if the East sent 3 teams again. And if they don’t , they definitely send two and the third one doesn’t miss by much. (I still like Baltimore and Tampa ahead of the overrated Blue Jays.)

[moonslav59]

The Red Sox finished 12 games under .500 in the woeful 2020 summer -- that's 75-87 over an entire season... though Boston's .400 winning percentage equates more to 65 wins.

A range between 65 and 75 victories seems reasonable. Predicting playoffs is unreasonable -- and even CBO Breslow admits that. Remember, no member of the projected starting rotation has ever had one entire good season as a starting pitcher.

But the AL East will not be the mighty division many expect it to be. There will not be three playoff teams in the East, maybe only one. Baltimore won't win 100, especially with Kimbrel trying to close. Not every young talent is an instant star, and all are subject to growing pains. Toronto has the best rotation. New York's veteran starters are all injury-prone now, and will regret trading pitching prospects the past year. Tampa is depleted and due for a season of mediocre openers.

Jays 95-67
O's 92-70
Rays 81-81
Spanks 79-83
Sox 74-88

Here, I thought you were one of the more optimistic ones.

[Bellhorn04]

With ST winding down it is pretty much time to predict the final AL East standings even though I know many are still holding out hope that John Henry lets some of the moths out of his wallet and signs Jordan Montgomery { unlikely in my view}. I will start with my predictions.

1} Baltimore 99-63
2} NYY 94-68
3} Tampa Bay 92-70
4} Toronto 87-75
5} Boston 81-81

Those are pretty solid.

[A Red Sox fan named Hugh]

1. Yankees 95 wins
2. Orioles 94 wins
3. Jays 86 wins
4. Rays 84 wins
5. Red Sox 79 wins

Orioles are loaded, but have some growing pains, Yankees are primed to climb back to the top, Jays and Rays are still good but their windows are closing and they take a step back this year leaving room for the Sox to finish as high as 3rd place if everything breaks right, which rarely happens.

[mvp 78]

Tor 96 - 66
bal 95 - 67
tbr 89 - 73
nyy 88 - 74
bos 75 - 87

[Bellhorn04]

Because I have a numbers fetish I have an awful hunch they're going to pull off a three-peat of 78's.

[5GoldGloves:OF,75]

Here, I thought you were one of the more optimistic ones.

I am. Definitely looking forward to a new season: watching young outfielders progress, seeing if corner infielders can become studs, hoping for Bailey to help Bello and at least one of the other starters become solid all year, intrigued by the potential of new relievers, even anticipating that some prospect makes a splash in the second half... and the debut of Mondesi -- I mean Grissom.

I think the AL East is vulnerable; the Yankees are vastly overrated, and the highlight of their season may be calling up Spencer Jones when Judge and Stanton get hurt again. The O's and Rays won't be as good as last year, and I just picked the Jays because they're due. But if all goes right for the Sox, they could make some noise.

Realistically, though, with a totally unproven starting rotation?

[mvp 78]

The Sox could be fun to watch and still be a last place team. It could be a better team than '22 and '23, but with a worse record.

[moonslav59]

I am. Definitely looking forward to a new season: watching young outfielders progress, seeing if corner infielders can become studs, hoping for Bailey to help Bello and at least one of the other starters become solid all year, intrigued by the potential of new relievers, even anticipating that some prospect makes a splash in the second half... and the debut of Mondesi -- I mean Grissom.

I think the AL East is vulnerable; the Yankees are vastly overrated, and the highlight of their season may be calling up Spencer Jones when Judge and Stanton get hurt again. The O's and Rays won't be as good as last year, and I just picked the Jays because they're due. But if all goes right for the Sox, they could make some noise.

Realistically, though, with a totally unproven starting rotation?

I share your excitement over various aspects of the 2024 Sox team. I do not think your projection is unreasonable, at all.

The Gio-less rotation is highly suspect: I agree. While many have had stretches of good to great pitching for 16-24 starts, none have had a full season of solid pitching. I suppose one could argue almost all good pitchers have bad parts of every season, but your point is well taken. I will say that Pivetta has had full seasons of looking okay.

2021-2022: 63 GS and a 4.54 ERA (4.35 FIP)- nothing to get excited about, but okay for a 4/5 slot pitcher. The problem is, he's our 2/3 SP'er, now. His best stretches were:

Last 2 GS or 2020: 1.80 ERA plus 15 GS to start 2021: 3.97 ERA
First 16 GS or 2022: 3.23 ERA and was at a 3.98 FIP after 25 GS.

Bello started 28 games, last year, which can be considered a full season, but a 4.24 ERA is not great. The 3.14 ERA after 15 GS and 5.58 the last 13 bolsters your point.

Houck has never started more than 21 games in MLB, and had a 5.01 ERA, when he did.

Whitlock has never gone beyond 79 IP or 10 GS in MLB.

Serious concerns, for sure.

[Bellhorn04]

It sort of feels like this team is set up to replicate 2023. Get off to a good start and ultimately collapse as the rotation breaks down.

[mvp 78]

Bello
Games 1-15: 3.14 ERA, 3.94 xFIP
Games 16-26: 4.50 ERA, 3.83 xFIP
Games 27-28: 13.00 ERA, 6.13 xFIP

Interesting how the xFIPs for Games 1-15 and Games 16-26 are very similar.

Games 1-26: 3.71 ERA, 3.89 xFIP

How luck evens out over a larger sample size.

[mvp 78]

It sort of feels like this team is set up to replicate 2023. Get off to a good start and ultimately collapse as the rotation breaks down.

I think they'll be worse at the beginning.

[notin]

I’m surprised how many think the Sox will come in last with 78 wins or more. That the Sox have accomplished this in the last two years didn’t underscore how rare it is. In MLB history, there have been as many 110 win teams as there have been last place teams with 78 wins…

[notin]

I am. Definitely looking forward to a new season: watching young outfielders progress, seeing if corner infielders can become studs, hoping for Bailey to help Bello and at least one of the other starters become solid all year, intrigued by the potential of new relievers, even anticipating that some prospect makes a splash in the second half... and the debut of Mondesi -- I mean Grissom.

I think the AL East is vulnerable; the Yankees are vastly overrated, and the highlight of their season may be calling up Spencer Jones when Judge and Stanton get hurt again. The O's and Rays won't be as good as last year, and I just picked the Jays because they're due. But if all goes right for the Sox, they could make some noise.

Realistically, though, with a totally unproven starting rotation?

Better starting rotation?

Bello-Pivetta-Crawford-Houck-Whitlock

or

Eovaldi-Gray-Dunning-Heaney-Pérez?

[moonslav59]

Bello
Games 1-15: 3.14 ERA, 3.94 xFIP
Games 16-26: 4.50 ERA, 3.83 xFIP
Games 27-28: 13.00 ERA, 6.13 xFIP

Interesting how the xFIPs for Games 1-15 and Games 16-26 are very similar.

Games 1-26: 3.71 ERA, 3.89 xFIP

How luck evens out over a larger sample size.

Eye-opening numbers. Being pretty good for a 26 game stretch probably qualifies for having a good full season. Most good to great SP'ers have a 2-6 game stretch of bad outings, just about every season.