Since Breslow named the big three as guys he's counting on soon, Mayer looks like a keeper. Hearing him in interviews at Fenway's prospect party this week, Mayer's poise already makes him a team leader type... it's evident the way he comports himself that he's been talking the talk and backing it up for a long time in his short life.
I know much of the Sox prospect talk has focused on the lack of clear good pitchers, but it's hard not to be optimistic about the future projected farm infusion.
Of course, some will not pan out as hoped, and some might become just role players or barely above replacement level back-ups, but I have to say, I'm impressed by the quality and quantity of prospects that have a decent chance at making a contribution.
We just graduated:
2023: Casas, EValdez, Murphy, Bernardino & kelly
2022: Bello, Crawford, Duran & Wink
2021" Whitlock & Houck
Estimated graduation years:
2024: Rafaela, Abreu, Slaten, Mata, Yorke, Fitts, Guerrero
(Walter, DHam, Rosier, Sogard, Lugo, Liu)
2025: Anthony, Mayer, Teel, Perales, Wikelman, Meidroth, Monegro, Hickey
(Jordan, Dobbins, E R-C, Bastardo, Hoppe, Troye, Gambrell, I Coffey, S Scott, Hagenman)
2026: Bleis, Castro, Song
(Paulino, Romero, Brannon, C Coffey, Penrod, Ravelo, K Campbell, Benitez, Olivares, Soto, Early, Mullins)
2027: Cespedes, Zanetello, Jo Garcia, A Anderson
(Alcantara, Arias, Yuten, Sena, Reimer, Paez, Cepeda, Judice, Encarnacion)
When you say it's gonna happen now
When exactly do you mean?
Walter, Hamilton, Rosier, Sogard, Lugo and Liu don't have a shot of making it this year. Lugo could have been Rule 5 picked the past two seasons and nobody is concerned with taking him even in the minor league phase.
Mata will probably be DFA'd or traded before the season starts. He just doesn't have the control to perform in MLB if they are going to keep Slaten.
Guerrero began to really struggle with his bb rate towards the end of last season. I don't think he gets called up at all this season without fixing that.
Fitts may be in line for an emergency call up, but none of us have seen him and he really is only a two pitch pitcher.
Yorke has been uninspiring the past 2 seasons. Without a 850-900 OPS and an injury on the MLB roster, there isn't a place for him unless he finds a new position.
The guys I think have a good chance of impacting the roster:
2024- Rafaela, Abreu, Slaten
2025 - Anthony, Mayer, Teel, Wikelman
2026 - Perales, Dobbins, Early
2027 - Bleis, Cespedes, Zanetello
I listed some longshots and possible role players and depth.
There is a chance some of the players you did not list improve and make an impact. It might be a long shot.
Add the chances of Mata, Fitts and Guerrero, and I'd say there is a significant chance something good could happen in '24 or '25. (Maybe not over 50%, but maybe 33% to 50.
When you say it's gonna happen now
When exactly do you mean?
I think it was more other people moving in front of Mayer than him falling off. When you're talking about the top 25-50 guys, if you lose a season due to injury someone somewhere is going to show something that has to put them in front of you. If Mayer comes roaring back this year he could easily be in everyones top 10 again.
They've ranked prospects higher with less games played, so maybe it is the position doubts.
If he hits like that to start 2024 and gets promoted to AAA, I'm thinking the mid season rankings will jump him higher.
Several rankings have Anthony higher and Rafaela lower.
I know every team has recent grads, too, but I'm really liking our young 7:
Casas
Bello
Anthony
Mayer
Teels
Rafaela
Bleis
(I'm also higher on Abreu than others seem to be.)
We have a bunch of other exciting ot promising players in the 24-28 range:
Devers
Crawford
Houck
Wink
Whitlock
Duran
Wong
EValdez
That's a pretty nice 14-15 group of young players and prospects.
We just need a couple aces to carry them to glory.
When you say it's gonna happen now
When exactly do you mean?