If you look at all qualified pitchers from '21-'22, he's 55th percentile. AVERAGEOriginally Posted by moonslav59
If you look at all qualified pitchers from '21-'22, he's 55th percentile. AVERAGE
The thing is, the Red Sox' starting rotation is so bad, it could really use a few more starters who are just average. Ya know, just to get through another season.
According to bb-ref, the AL's average Earned Run Average in 2023 -- per 180 IP was 4.28. Of course, no Sox' pitcher came close to 180 IP, but Giolito did it for three other teams combined.
The Red Sox have exactly one starter who was basically average last year: Bello at 4.24. Next is Crawford at 4.51 in 23 starts, followed by Pivetta at 4.66 in 16 starts, then Houck 5.01 in 21 and Whitlock 5.23 in 10.
Sale was average at 4.30 in 20 starts. Paxton was 4.50 in 19. But both are gone...
... replaced by Giolito: 4.88 in 33 starts.
So, you are penalizing him for having too many IP?
I guess there are only 49 SP'ers worthy of comparing him to, because they did not "qualify."
BTW, tied for 21st in your stat, xFIP is top 43% out of 49 pitchers.
While the fact that only 49 pitchers had 300+ IP from '21-'22 highlights just how much more value someone like Monty has for any team, his production level was better than top 43%, when you count 4-5 pitchers per team- you know, the amount every team uses.
He pitches more innings than the other 100 SP'ers and much better per inning, but we can't count them. How good are those other 100?
Even going to 250 IP, the sample size only grow to 81 pitchers. (Monty is tied for 31st or top 39%)
You have to go to 200 IP, a measly 100 per season, to even get to 114 pitchers (105 SP'ers.) That's about 3-4 per team. (33 out of 105 is about top 30%)
When I think average, I think where does some one rank among the top 150 SP'er, (5 SP x 30 teams) but even that could b e viewed as not really comparing him to every SP'er to see what average looks like.
It's like saying, "He's an average top 50 pitcher in MLB."
When you say it's gonna happen now
When exactly do you mean?
Also, Sale + Paxton = 39 GS and nearly 200 IP. I doubt Gio starts even 34 games.
When you say it's gonna happen now
When exactly do you mean?
Ya, it does look like the rotation is a little short. Don't worry, it's still... the month when teams report to Florida.
I hope we add an innings eater, but part of me also thinks maybe it's not a bad idea to find out- once-and for-all, if any of these tweeners can start 27+ games and go 160+ IP.
I just hope we don't ruin any of them in the attempt.
When you say it's gonna happen now
When exactly do you mean?
But he might get 175-180 of those 200 IP….
Okay.
Lower production.
Less IP.
Should I be impressed? Encouraged?
I happen to think Gio will do better than 2023, but Sale & Paxton did better than most of our pitchers, last year, and we sucked in SP'ing, then, too.
When you say it's gonna happen now
When exactly do you mean?
They need another starter at the very least, is the point.
WAR is good for something.
I have a feeling with already have the guy, and his name rhymes with Tanner Houck...
Hanner Touck?
WAR is good for something.
Which also rhymes with Still A Stupid Idea.
Championships since purchase by John Henry group: Red Sox 4 Yankees 1
The Red Sox are 8-1 in their last 9 postseason games against the Yankees.
Exactly, and at best, we just shuffled Paxton and Sale for Gio.
We didn't add squat.
When you say it's gonna happen now
When exactly do you mean?
Houck was the only "tweener" that spent all of his 2023 games in the rotation.
He and Pivetta look like the sure bet starters in 2024, along with Bello & Gio.
The 5th starter will likely be shuffled during the season, unless the first guy does well enough to hold it down.
I'm guessing Crawford has the inside track, but at this point, who knows.
Whit & Wink are "being stretched out," so maybe one of them wins the job in ST'ing.
When you say it's gonna happen now
When exactly do you mean?
I’m not wild about any of Houck, Whitlock or Wink bring in the rotation. But if they are, hopefully Breslow at least gets a reliever to backfill their spot(s) in the bullpen…
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