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Thread: Is this a weird offseason for baseball in general, or will it still turn out normal?

  1. #31
    Deity Bellhorn04's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by mvp 78 View Post
    Being 40-60% is average. C'mon man. That's like saying if you're 49th percentile you're above average.
    fWAR
    2020 0.9
    2021 3.2
    2022 2.7

    All above average.

    He's on a 4 year run of above average.
    Championships since purchase by John Henry group: Red Sox 4 Yankees 1

    The Red Sox are 8-1 in their last 9 postseason games against the Yankees.

  2. #32
    A lot of posts about paying market value for a starting pitcher to lead the rotation.

    Some fans may think any debate for this need is sad when it comes to the Boston Red Sox. To that, I just say...

    ... PGA, baby! (POOR GUY ABSOLVED)

  3. #33
    Deity Bellhorn04's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by mvp 78 View Post
    He's a #2 now, sure. Does that earn him the deal he's looking for? IDK. I can see why some teams shy away from giving him more than Nola since he doesn't have that track record.
    We have no idea what the ask is. I'd go as high as the $125-135 mill range.
    Championships since purchase by John Henry group: Red Sox 4 Yankees 1

    The Red Sox are 8-1 in their last 9 postseason games against the Yankees.

  4. #34
    Deity Bellhorn04's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by 5GoldGloves:OF,75 View Post
    A lot of posts about paying market value for a starting pitcher to lead the rotation.

    Some fans may think any debate for this need is sad when it comes to the Boston Red Sox. To that, I just say...

    ... PGA, baby! (POOR GUY ABSOLVED)
    Get one ready for NBA, because that's coming soon.
    Championships since purchase by John Henry group: Red Sox 4 Yankees 1

    The Red Sox are 8-1 in their last 9 postseason games against the Yankees.

  5. #35
    TalkSox Ascended Master mvp 78's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bellhorn04 View Post
    fWAR
    2020 0.9
    2021 3.2
    2022 2.7

    All above average.

    He's on a 4 year run of above average.
    So above average that the Yankees didn't want him on their post season roster.
    Quote Originally Posted by Old Red View Post
    I get MV Pee.

  6. #36
    TalkSox Ascended Master mvp 78's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bellhorn04 View Post
    Get one ready for NBA, because that's coming soon.
    Can't happen until Lebron retires, I believe. As an investor in FSG, he can't be an active owner of an NBA team as a player.
    Quote Originally Posted by Old Red View Post
    I get MV Pee.

  7. #37
    Quote Originally Posted by Bellhorn04 View Post
    Get one ready for NBA, because that's coming soon.
    No Baseball Anytime!

  8. #38
    TalkSox Ascended Master mvp 78's Avatar
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    When you look at his statcast page, he's never been above 60th percentile for xERA, xBA, xSLG, xISO, K%. He's a fine pitcher who gives you a lot of innings without walking batters. If the Sox were going to put a really good IF defense out there, it'd make sense for them to lock him up. He's a better version of Derek Lowe IMO. Lowe was a pretty good pitcher until his late 30's. If Montgomery avoids injury, he could be decent. He's become a better pitcher as he's thrown his sinker more (up to 42% last year, was in the 20's in 20-21 and 30's in 22).
    Quote Originally Posted by Old Red View Post
    I get MV Pee.

  9. #39
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    Quote Originally Posted by moonslav59 View Post
    Going by what MVP said, you'd have to subtract 2023. He said, "before 2023, he was average."

    That's 9.9 fWAR /6 years or 1.6 per season.
    You changed the scale.

    The original numbers were per 175 IP, not per season. Montgomery had a 3 year stretch where he totaled 75 IP.

    If you use his numbers not counting last year, his 9.9 fWAR per 566 IP converts to 3.1 fWAR per 175 IP.

    That’s barely a noticeable drop over when you include 2023…

  10. #40
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    Quote Originally Posted by mvp 78 View Post
    So above average that the Yankees didn't want him on their post season roster.
    That just makes him more likable in my eyes…

  11. #41
    Deity Bellhorn04's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by notin View Post
    That just makes him more likable in my eyes…
    Exactly. Would be nothing sweeter than Montgomery beating his original team in a Red Sox uniform...with Whitlock getting the save.
    Championships since purchase by John Henry group: Red Sox 4 Yankees 1

    The Red Sox are 8-1 in their last 9 postseason games against the Yankees.

  12. #42
    Deity moonslav59's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by mvp 78 View Post
    Being 40-60% is average. C'mon man. That's like saying if you're 49th percentile you're above average.
    No, he was 20-33% from '21-'22 in most categories: 26th% in xFIP.
    When you say it's gonna happen now
    When exactly do you mean?

  13. #43
    Deity moonslav59's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by mvp 78 View Post
    He's a #2 now, sure. Does that earn him the deal he's looking for? IDK. I can see why some teams shy away from giving him more than Nola since he doesn't have that track record.
    A #2 is NOT average.
    When you say it's gonna happen now
    When exactly do you mean?

  14. #44
    TalkSox Ascended Master mvp 78's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by moonslav59 View Post
    A #2 is NOT average.
    I'm not saying he's average today. I'm not saying he was a #2 prior to 2023.

    He was average prior to 2023. Now, he's a #2 starter because he's throwing his splitter more and it's working out well for him.
    Quote Originally Posted by Old Red View Post
    I get MV Pee.

  15. #45
    Deity moonslav59's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by mvp 78 View Post
    I'm not saying he's average today. I'm not saying he was a #2 prior to 2023.

    He was average prior to 2023. Now, he's a #2 starter because he's throwing his splitter more and it's working out well for him.
    What about from 2021 to 2022, where he was at the 26th percentile in xFIP? (That's not 40-60%.)
    When you say it's gonna happen now
    When exactly do you mean?

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