Snell - wildly inconsistentOriginally Posted by Bellhorn04
Montgomery - average pitcher until '23 and wants close to max deal
Bellinger - superstar prospect who fell to earth and disappeared for a few years, had a near MVP season but as a completely different hitter (Punch and Judy!)
Chapman - glove first 3B
It's not THAT suprising that teams aren't jumping at these guys.
Don't forget JD Martinez. Six years ago Boras said he was worth $200M -- with cost of living increases, what does Scott want for his All-Star DH now?
I guess we can argue about what average is, but from 2021-2022, there were 150 SP'ers with 130+ IP. Here is where Monty placed:
27th in IP at 336 (top 20% tier)
36th in fWAR at 5.9 (2nd tier and 0.1 away from top tier)
39th in xFIP at 3.66 (0.13 away from top tier)
54th in ERA at 3.66 (2nd tier and 0.43 from 30th)
55th in ERA- at 90
He looked like a very solid #2 tier pitcher in those 2 years- maybe even a borderline 1/2 tier.
If you combine his last 3 years, he tilts to top tier (top 30,) to me.
Above average, at least.
When you say it's gonna happen now
When exactly do you mean?
Well above average.
Championships since purchase by John Henry group: Red Sox 4 Yankees 1
The Red Sox are 8-1 in their last 9 postseason games against the Yankees.
Not prior to 2023.
moon's numbers for 2021-22 say otherwise and appear to be 100% accurate. He was good in the abbreviated 2020 as well.
Championships since purchase by John Henry group: Red Sox 4 Yankees 1
The Red Sox are 8-1 in their last 9 postseason games against the Yankees.
If you combine every year, before 2023, he was average.
My point was from 2021-2022, even in xFIP, MVP's go to stat, he was top 40%. (He was top 26% in xFIP.)
When you say it's gonna happen now
When exactly do you mean?
If you take his whole career you've got 755 innings and a 14.2 fWAR.
That's about 3.3 fWAR per 175 IP.
Average is about 2 fWAR per 175 IP.
Championships since purchase by John Henry group: Red Sox 4 Yankees 1
The Red Sox are 8-1 in their last 9 postseason games against the Yankees.
Going by what MVP said, you'd have to subtract 2023. He said, "before 2023, he was average."
That's 9.9 fWAR /6 years or 1.6 per season.
When you say it's gonna happen now
When exactly do you mean?
Has to be done by IP if we're evaluating the guy's actual ability.
Championships since purchase by John Henry group: Red Sox 4 Yankees 1
The Red Sox are 8-1 in their last 9 postseason games against the Yankees.
I think we were talking about production levels before 2023, but yes, counting those 3 seasons where he totalled 71 IP end up making his avg fWAR lower than his true skill level.
9.9/5 is 2.0 AVG
9.9/4 is 2.5 AVG to AVG+
9.9/3 is 3.3 AVG+
When you say it's gonna happen now
When exactly do you mean?
If we insist on using the crazy numbering thing, he's a solid #2.
What's interesting is that the Rangers won the 2023 World Series on the backs of #2's in Eovaldi and Monty, while their supposed #1s, deGrom and Scherzer, were of little use.
Championships since purchase by John Henry group: Red Sox 4 Yankees 1
The Red Sox are 8-1 in their last 9 postseason games against the Yankees.
I disagree with the multiple year "well he's listed as the top 50 if you cut off innings at this point..." He was average prior to 2023.
Being 40-60% is average. C'mon man. That's like saying if you're 49th percentile you're above average.
He's a #2 now, sure. Does that earn him the deal he's looking for? IDK. I can see why some teams shy away from giving him more than Nola since he doesn't have that track record.
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