In 2014, Bradley posted a .531 OPS and 0.2 fWAR. I bet he wasn’t wildly popular. And his offensive output might have helped fuel the team’s interest in Rusney Castillo.Originally Posted by Bellhorn04
I don’t recall anyone defending his contributions based on his positive fWAR…
I know I had not given up on him, at that time, but I do recall many were wanting a change in CF.
When you say it's gonna happen now
When exactly do you mean?
His negative fWARs for 2021, 2022 and 2023, and the fact he's probably done as an MLB player, might be even more pertinent.
To me this is the one of the things that WAR really tells us. Can a guy with a great glove and a terrible bat be a positive contributor? Generally speaking, no. The only value would be as a late inning defensive replacement.
Championships since purchase by John Henry group: Red Sox 4 Yankees 1
The Red Sox are 8-1 in their last 9 postseason games against the Yankees.
Actually those years were not pertinent at all to my question about 2014.
The bottom line is that year Bradley was a clear offensive liability yet didn’t have a negative fWAR. That’s also a possibility with Rafaela next year. If Rafaela has a .530 OPS and a positive fWAR in the 0.1 to 0.5 range, what will be your thoughts of him as a starter?
The SS position offers the best case scenario for a great defender to be a big enough overall plus, despite sucking at the plate.
When you say it's gonna happen now
When exactly do you mean?
Of course he didn't. That's the point. This season mirrors 2012 in that the rotation was a shambled. Bello is the only starter who didn't go on the IL (nor was relegated to the bullpen--Pivetta).
When 2013 rolled around, however, the Sox didn't just have Lackey. They also had Lester and--surprise, surprise--Clay Buchholz, who went completely ape in the first three months with 13 quality starts in 16 total starts. That year Lester had 20 quality starts and Lackey 19. Plus Koji Uehara in the bullpen. The pitching was transformed--and that carried over into the postseason.
I don't see that happening in 2024, but agree with the consensus that job one is to fix the rotation.
Bello with 15 quality starts in his rookie season is a good start.
I think the Sale comeback this year, despite missing over 2 months, was promising. He was fantastic in May (4 starts, 26.2 innings, 3 quality starts, ERA 2.42) and almost decent in September (5 starts, 25 innings, ERA 2.88) when he ratcheted down his fastball to the low 90's. He turns 35 in March, but he basically rested 3 seasons, 2020-22. I think he could go 150 innings next year and just maybe 15 quality starts.
So theoretically the new Sox management only needs to get one quality starter for next year. Two would be better, but the Sox also need to make other fixes. My biggest concern is with righty bats. Story needs to come around, but they also need at least one more .800 OPS righty bat.
Last edited by Maxbialystock; 10-04-2023 at 11:00 AM.
Ozzie Smith had an .589 OPS in 1980 and a 5.1 bWAR.
When you say it's gonna happen now
When exactly do you mean?
Bello started the season on the IL and missed 2 starts due to that.
When you say it's gonna happen now
When exactly do you mean?
JBJ was up and down (between Pawtucket and Boston) like a yo-yo in 2014. But his lousy hitting was in tune with his teammates. Here are OPS's of the 7 Sox with the most innings played: Ortiz .873; Pedey .712; Bogey .660; Napoli .789; Holt .711; Nava .706; JBJ .531.
Thanks for the correction. So I guess that's kind of a clean sweep. Every Sox starter this year spent time on the IL or in the bullpen.
I think this also confirms what a lousy manager Cora was this season. How could he have let that happen?
An fWAR of 0.1 to 0.5 is well below average for a starter. Average is about 2.0. So if Rafaela is 0.1 to 0.5, he will not be a plus player. The mitigating factor being he's young and hopefully improving.
Championships since purchase by John Henry group: Red Sox 4 Yankees 1
The Red Sox are 8-1 in their last 9 postseason games against the Yankees.
This brings to mind Slasher's complaints about WAR. He thought it makes much more sense to use WAA (Wins Above Average). He's probably right.
Championships since purchase by John Henry group: Red Sox 4 Yankees 1
The Red Sox are 8-1 in their last 9 postseason games against the Yankees.
What's the Average? It's easier for me to conceptualize what a AAAA guy is than Average.
An 0.5 WAR (either calculation) does not a regular make.
WAR is good for something.
To each their own.
Championships since purchase by John Henry group: Red Sox 4 Yankees 1
The Red Sox are 8-1 in their last 9 postseason games against the Yankees.
Posting Permissions
Reply With Quote