5/20 Sox @ Padres

[moonslav59]

Excellent overview, as always.

Somewhere on posted on Talksox that, with the emergence of not only Sale, but Paxton and Bello (who needs better command), the Sox have three pretty good starters and are backed up by more so-so starters and a pretty good bullpen. So I think the immediate future of Sox pitching looks pretty good--and with it the immediate future of the team.

We are 8 games from reaching the third of the season mark. It's starting to get to the point where team identities can be better known. I'm liking what I see from this team, and way more than I did about the 2022 team, at this point in May, that was in the midsts of a 6 game winning streak that still would not get them to .500.

This team fights back.
This team shows energy and team unity after nice plays.
Underdogs often pick up the stars that are struggling.
They've overcome several injuries (not more than some clubs, but still our share, if not more.)
The rotation is starting to take form, as 3 guys have seemingly grabbed their slots and Kluber has shown he can do a little better than how he started the season.
The recent return of Whitlock and others might be offset by the loss of Schreiber and others, but we still have some major returns not too far away: Duvall, Mondesi & Story.

I'm sensing some reluctant optimism creeping into some posters who were highly skeptical at the start of the season, and I know that can turn on a dime, as we saw a week ago, but I think this team deserves the optimism.

Maybe it is actually realism.

[Maxbialystock]

We are 8 games from reaching the third of the season mark. It's starting to get to the point where team identities can be better known. I'm liking what I see from this team, and way more than I did about the 2022 team, at this point in May, that was in the midsts of a 6 game winning streak that still would not get them to .500.

This team fights back.
This team shows energy and team unity after nice plays.
Underdogs often pick up the stars that are struggling.
They've overcome several injuries (not more than some clubs, but still our share, if not more.)
The rotation is starting to take form, as 3 guys have seemingly grabbed their slots and Kluber has shown he can do a little better than how he started the season.
The recent return of Whitlock and others might be offset by the loss of Schreiber and others, but we still have some major returns not too far away: Duvall, Mondesi & Story.

I'm sensing some reluctant optimism creeping into some posters who were highly skeptical at the start of the season, and I know that can turn on a dime, as we saw a week ago, but I think this team deserves the optimism.

Maybe it is actually realism.

The "realism" began with the preseason survey when three of you said the Sox would have a winning record and when I joined 9 others agreeing the Sox would be losers. And by realism I mean simply a better overall assessment.

There have definitely been a bunch of surprises already this season--

Sale, Paxton, and Bello;
the bullpen;
Dugo;
Duran;
Casas (maybe);
Duvall for 8 games;
Kike moving to the infield/SS because of the injuries to Story, Mondesi and then Chang;
Yoshida;
both catchers, Wong and McGuire.

[moonslav59]

The "realism" began with the preseason survey when three of you said the Sox would have a winning record and when I joined 9 others agreeing the Sox would be losers. And by realism I mean simply a better overall assessment.

There have definitely been a bunch of surprises already this season--

Sale, Paxton, and Bello;
the bullpen;
Dugo;
Duran;
Casas (maybe);
Duvall for 8 games;
Kike moving to the infield/SS because of the injuries to Story, Mondesi and then Chang;
Yoshida;
both catchers, Wong and McGuire.

I don't think the pen should have been a surprise. We added Jansen, Martin, Joely and Houck was supposed to be in the pen. Yes, Wink and Crawford have been surprises out of the pen, but overall, I'm not surprised.

What I'm most surprised about is just how badly our rotation has done. I knew it was a problem area, but I don't even think the 9 posters who predicted losing records thought we'd have a SP'er ERA of 5.55. Virtually every SP'er has underperformed projections by every projection service. Doesn't that more than the offset the "surprise" 30 games from Duran & 8 games from Duvall?

To me, Casas has done worse than I expected.

We have certainly gotten production from players I never expected, but I don't think posters fully appreciated the depth our roster had. They only looked at the losses at the top of the roster and who we replaced them with and underestimated that replacing the big 3 (Bogey, JD & Nate) with 6+ lesser but still very good players (Yoshida, Turner, Duvall, Jansen, Martin and Kluber- not so good, so far.)

We've had a lot of our better players out with injury, too- more than I expected beyond Story.
I expected Mondesi back, alreay.
Paxton took longer.
Whitlock, Crawford, Martin, Schreiber and others missed some time.
Arroyo & Chang put a strain on middle IF depth.
Duvall was off to a great start, then...

All-in-all, I think the surprises have evened out: good vs bad.

[Maxbialystock]

I don't think the pen should have been a surprise. We added Jansen, Martin, Joely and Houck was supposed to be in the pen. Yes, Wink and Crawford have been surprises out of the pen, but overall, I'm not surprised.

What I'm most surprised about is just how badly our rotation has done. I knew it was a problem area, but I don't even think the 9 posters who predicted losing records thought we'd have a SP'er ERA of 5.55. Virtually every SP'er has underperformed projections by every projection service. Doesn't that more than the offset the "surprise" 30 games from Duran & 8 games from Duvall?

To me, Casas has done worse than I expected.

We have certainly gotten production from players I never expected, but I don't think posters fully appreciated the depth our roster had. They only looked at the losses at the top of the roster and who we replaced them with and underestimated that replacing the big 3 (Bogey, JD & Nate) with 6+ lesser but still very good players (Yoshida, Turner, Duvall, Jansen, Martin and Kluber- not so good, so far.)

We've had a lot of our better players out with injury, too- more than I expected beyond Story.
I expected Mondesi back, alreay.
Paxton took longer.
Whitlock, Crawford, Martin, Schreiber and others missed some time.
Arroyo & Chang put a strain on middle IF depth.
Duvall was off to a great start, then...

All-in-all, I think the surprises have evened out: good vs bad.

A much better assessment than mine.

[moonslav59]

A much better assessment than mine.

I think most of us expected a rotation ERA of between 4.25 and 4.75 not 5.55.

ERAs as SP ONLY:
2.45 Paxton 2GS
4.45 Bello 6
5.01 Sale 9
5.48 Houck 8
6.19 Whit 3
6.30 Pivetta 8
6.41 Kluber 8
8.00 Craw 1

Our 4 SP'ers with 8-9 GS are all between 5.01 and 6.41.