I don't think any prospects graduated except for Houck and they added from a draft that included Marcel Mayer. Doesn't make sense to me.Originally Posted by A Red Sox fan named Hugh
I don't think any prospects graduated except for Houck and they added from a draft that included Marcel Mayer. Doesn't make sense to me.
Four Boston Red Sox prospects made Keith Law’s Top 100 prospect list released Monday on The Athletic.
Shorstop Marcelo Mayer led all Red Sox prospects at No. 18 on the list. Second baseman Nick Yorke, who went unranked in Law’s previous rankings, is listed No. 37.
First baseman Triston Casas jumped 31 spots in the rankings to No. 56.
Right-handed pitcher Bryan Bello, who previously went unranked, is listed at No. 86.
Yorke was out of the top 100. Casas jumped 31 spots. Bello in the top 100. But the Sox are still 20th? Maybe he saw Duran and Downs play poorly and that offset the gains? IDK.
The fact that he has 4 of our prospects in his top 86, makes it seem like he's messing up on one end or the other.
I get the fact that are farm is not super deep, but it's not void of hopefuls beyond #4.
When you say it's gonna happen now
When exactly do you mean?
I suppose other farms may have also improved…
It doesn't make sense.
He says are pitching is the best it's been in a long time. He ranks 4 in his top 100 (2 better than last year), and we did not exactly get weaker in depth beyond the top 100.
IMO, he has more "splainin' to do." What harmony posted does not go far enough.
When you say it's gonna happen now
When exactly do you mean?
It doesn’t appear to make sense, but that’s because we only use comparative methods of evaluating it.
Let’s say the Sox farm had 100 future fWAR in it. And that total was good for the 20th best future fWAR from any farm. Then after the draft and a couple trades (and some player development), the Sox are able to add 15 more fWAR. But then after the draft and the trade deadline last year, so are the 19 teams in front of Boston. So now it’s still 20th. But did the farm improve?
How many other teams went from 2 prospects near 5oth to 4 in the top 90? They can't all gain 2 slots.
Plus, it was his comment about the Sox pitching being better than it has been in ages, and only Bello was in his top 100. That makes it look like he thinks we are deep in at least one area.
I get how rankings involve other teams, who may or may not have improved over last year, but a lot of players graduated, last year, too.
I still think he owes a deeper explanation.
When you say it's gonna happen now
When exactly do you mean?
Some of these guys maybe focus too much on top prospects when evaluating entire systems. Mayer should automatically elevate Boston's status, but it's also not hard to imagine national scribes possibly overlooking overall depth beyond the top 100 or 150 hopefuls...
... it's also not hard to imagine a guy like Blaze Jordan or just one of the two true targets (power or speed) in the Renfroe trade taking big steps up the minor league ladder this year.
We also added Hamilton, Binelas, McDonough, Hickey and others.
I'm sure other teams added more depth, but it's not like we took a step back beyond the top 100-150.
When you say it's gonna happen now
When exactly do you mean?
The Sox farm definitely got deeper, but that doesn’t mean it improved past anyone else’s just yet…
Baseball America's ranking is obviously the correct one.
Keith Law can take a hike.
Championships since purchase by John Henry group: Red Sox 4 Yankees 1
The Red Sox are 8-1 in their last 9 postseason games against the Yankees.
I get your point about other teams likely improving, too, but again, who else gained 2 in the top 100 while holding firm on depth. (Also, if a few teams also added a couple to the top 100, some teams lost a player or two.
Our graduated players were not all that highly ranked, last year.
All I'm saying is that I think Law needs a more in depth explanation for his failure to move us up even 1 slot.
I'm not buying the "drops" by Duran and Downs offset the additions and improving player by enough to keep us at #20.
When you say it's gonna happen now
When exactly do you mean?
Last Year's April 1st top 20 by soxprospects.com:
Casas
Downs
Mata
Groome
Jimenez
Dalbec
Duran
Houck (was not as highly regarded as some remember, at that time)
Song
Chatham
Ward
Wong
Zeferjahn
A Ramirez (traded away)
Lugo
Murphy
Decker
Cannon
Bello
Bonaci
NOV 20, 2021
Casas
Mayer
Yorke
Duran
Downs
Bello
Jordan
Groome
Jimenez
Mata
Seabold
Gonzalez
Winckowski
Murphy
Bleis
Wong
Walter
Song
Ward
McDonough
(We added Binelas who was slotted #18 and Hamilton at #26.)
When you say it's gonna happen now
When exactly do you mean?
An overview of the difference between the February minor leaguers from 2021 to 2022 might be summed up like this:
Our depth beyond the top 10-12 is better, now. Maybe everybody's is due to COVID keeping prospects from playing in 2020.
Lets assume Casas is about the same, although one could argue he's a better prospect, now.
Mayer and Yorke replaced Downs and Mata as our 2-3. That's a huge improvement, IMO.
Duran and Downs were pushed down by those two, and some could argue their stock took a hit- large or small.
Dalbec and Houck we never all that highly regarded, so losing them to graduation should not have offset the rise of Bello, Jordan, Seabold and others.
Groome was #4 last winter. He didn't have a bad 2021, but he has slipped #8. (I actually like his chances more, now, than last winter.)
Mata dropped due to surgery, and that is common (same with Ward.)
I can see how other teams have also seen their farm grow and improve, alongside ours, but I just can't see how Law ranks us the same as last year.
When you say it's gonna happen now
When exactly do you mean?
Did everyone else's farm system improve just as much?
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