Wild Card GAME

[5GoldGloves:OF,75]

Something to consider while searching ESPN previews for continuous replays of Brock Freakin Holt hitting for the cycle at the Stadium, in the most recent playoffs this century between Boston and NY:

Red Sox who should pitch: Eovaldi starts and goes a strong 5 or 6, and is relieved in some order by the following ('21 BA/OPS and games pitched vs. NY included) -- Braiser .125/.250, 2; Houck .170/.461, 4; Whitlock .154/.404, 6; Robles .083/.298, 4.

Who shouldn't pitch: Ottavino .308/.996, 8.

Yankee bullpen vs. Boston: Loaisiga .400/.919, 5; Green .300/.877 6; Luetge .280/.785 7; Chapman .200/.853 7... Peralta .143/.330 4.

[mvp 78]

I'm not sure I'd pitch Ottavino in any meaningful innings going forward.

[mvp 78]

@GlobeChadFinn
Sox-Yankees wild card game airs on ESPN at 8 p.m. Tuesday, so … A-Rod. There will be an alternate Statcast-driven broadcast on ESPN2 with @jasonbenetti, @PerezEd, and @mike_petriello on the call.

Choose your fighter...

[notin]

I'm not sure I'd pitch Ottavino in any meaningful innings going forward.

As many feel the same about Barnes and Richards, the best be that the Sox play an awful lot of meaningless innings late in games from here on out…

[oldtimer]

Our best hitters have been Schwaber, Devers and Verdugo so the Yankees may be doing us a favor starting a right hander. With all the pitching available, I expect the winner will have to hold down the opponents run production. With luck we will get a couple of runs early and Eovaldi will hold the Yankees to 5 or 6 scoreless innings. The pressure of being behind late on either team will be enormous.

[jacksonianmarch]

Yanks are gonna be on the attack early with their bashers and if Eovaldi weathers the early storm, they’ll start grinding ABs. Eovaldi going 5 is gonna be more like it. My bigger concern for the Yanks is that Cole has been limited since his injury and I don’t want Boone to think Cole is some rock solid ace who cannot be touched. I’d have a guy stretching from the opening pitch and if vintage Cole shows up, bonus

[5GoldGloves:OF,75]

Yanks are gonna be on the attack early with their bashers and if Eovaldi weathers the early storm, they’ll start grinding ABs. Eovaldi going 5 is gonna be more like it. My bigger concern for the Yanks is that Cole has been limited since his injury and I don’t want Boone to think Cole is some rock solid ace who cannot be touched. I’d have a guy stretching from the opening pitch and if vintage Cole shows up, bonus

Geez, this is quite the sober take on the SECOND RANKED STAR in the playoffs, according to MLB.com's objective writers (the ones who predicted New York to win 850 games this season). Of course, Judge was ranked 4th, and even Stanton was rated ahead of Boston's top player, Devers. Eovaldi, the All-Star pitcher who led the AL in Fielding Independent Pitching, was nowhere to be found in the top 50... but Joey Gallo was #37 because "we all want to see those homers."

[jacksonianmarch]

Stanton has been nails in September and when he gets hot, he carries a team. He also murders Fenway for his career. I'd have him higher than anyone on the Yanks for Tuesday's game. For Cole, it really all depends on if he is fully healed. If he is, awesome, roll out there. If he isnt then use the pen to your advantage and get a few innings of high octane cheese out of him. I would tell every pitcher on the team that, if you are given the ball, leave it all out there every pitch. Do not pitch for tomorrow. If you start and only give 3, then give us the best three you can give.

[jacksonianmarch]

Two divergent paths here.

For the Sox, they need to hope the offense gets to Cole early and that Eovaldi lasts late.

For the Yanks, they need to try to tie or lead by the time Eovaldi leaves. No need to try to blow the sox out early, use the pen difference to your advantage. Getting Eovaldi out early will increase the chances of winning

[mvp 78]

Even when you include his last horrible start, Eovaldi has a 81 tOPS+, 1.102 WHIP, 5.91 k/bb vs the Yankees.

[jacksonianmarch]

Even when you include his last horrible start, Eovaldi has a 81 tOPS+, 1.102 WHIP, 5.91 k/bb vs the Yankees.

Like I said, we need to get Eovaldi out early.

[mvp 78]

Eovaldi's starts against NYY this season:

6/04 6 IP, 1 ER, 7k, 0bb
6/26 7.2 IP, 1 ER, 6k, 0bb
7/17 5 IP, 1 ER, 7 k, 1 bb
7/24 7.2 IP, 2 ER, 8 k, 0 bb
8/17 5 IP, 2 ER, 6 k, 1 bb
9/24 2.2 IP, 7 ER, 0 k, 2 bb

I'm not sure I'd have much to complain about if he repeated any of his first 5 starts this year vs the NYY.

[moonslav59]

Eovaldi is the clear cut best starter we could have starting vs the Yanks in an elimination game.

While Cole seems like the clear best for the Yanks, we have gotten to him, this year by more than NYY has gotten to big Nate.

Sox vs Cole in 2021:

5IP 8H 5ER 2BB 6K
6IP 5H 1ER 2BB 11K
5IP 6H 3ER 2BB 8K
6IP 5H 3ER 3BB 6K

Total:
4.91 ERA (6.19 at Fenway)
1.500 WHIP (1.625 at Fenway)
.852 OPS Against (.964 at Fenway)

Eovaldi
3.71 ERA
1.235 WHIP
.744 OPS Against

Of course, past or recent past performance is not always an indicator of what will happen going forward, but I feel good about this match up. It's not going to be a cakewalk, but we have a legit shot at a win.

[mvp 78]

Pete Abraham:

Kicking around some Red Sox roster ideas. They can do without a few relievers for one game. Could use an extra infielder with Iglesias ineligible. Maybe bring Duran back to pinch run? Would they want a third catcher? Martinez’s status is a factor.

The one-game thing is weird. Sale doesn’t need to be on the roster. Maybe you drop Rodriguez because he pitched yesterday and would start Thursday if they win. Lots of ways to get creative. Arroyo hasn’t played 9 innings since 8-26. Given his injury issues, they’ll need an INF.

Don’t be surprised if somebody out of the blue like Arauz ends up active. They really need to keep Hernández in center. Dalbec taking grounders at 2B lately seems more like a “break glass in case of emergency” thing than something they’d want to do. It’ll be interesting.

Roster construction could look pretty interesting. I think Arauz and Duran make sense. Plawecki can swing the bat fairly well as a backup, so I'm not sure you'd need the 3rd catcher. Probably not have Sale/ERod active and load up on bench bats. Now that you have the 3 batter rule, it doesn't make too much sense to have 13 relievers.

[5GoldGloves:OF,75]

Two divergent paths here.

For the Sox, they need to hope the offense gets to Cole early and that Eovaldi lasts late.

For the Yanks, they need to try to tie or lead by the time Eovaldi leaves. No need to try to blow the sox out early, use the pen difference to your advantage. Getting Eovaldi out early will increase the chances of winning

If the Yankees' bullpen is indeed a difference-maker, it just may be because it gives the edge to Boston. Go back and look at the season stats in the first post of this thread. The Sox have gotten to four of NY's five top relievers. Loaisiga has been hot lately, but Chapman has given up either extra base hits or walks to a third of the Sox batters he's faced.

The key of the game could very well be the way the Red Sox use their own pen. Cora can and should stay completely away from combustibles like Richards, Ottavino and Barnes -- who will have the Bombers salivating -- and only throw relievers who've been consistently stingy vs. the Yanks: Whitlock, Braiser, Robles, and hopefully Houck.

But no one should be one bit surprised if Cora brings back Pivetta, ERod, Perez or even Sale in late and close situations.