This would be my strategy. If Fabian doesn't sign, the harm is minimal since the Red Sox get the pick back next year.
Also, I don't understand the position: if the Red Sox don't sign Fabien, they could perhaps sign Green. I don't see or understand where the money would come from for Green.
So if the Mets offer Rocker 75% of slot value and he doesn't sign, the Mets get the pick back next year? That's a far cry from signing Rocker for over slot, which was what Rocker was expecting and the Mets were prepared to pay him. If the Mets sign Rocker for 75% of slot, they could use the saved money on other draft picks. On the other hand, perhaps the Mets didn't select any hard-to-sign over slot types later in the draft?
Of course, there is a chance Rocker won't sign for 75% of slot or even full slot value, in which case the Mets lose that money. But if the Mets don't have any hard-to-sign draftees, it doesn't really matter and they would get the pick back next year.
Back to Fabian, if he is some middle class kid, he would be crazy to pass on 2 million or 2.5 million, that is still life changing money and a lot of money for most people. If he is already wealthy--born into a wealthy family--I can understand taking the risk.
Last edited by Fan_since_Boggs; 07-28-2021 at 10:39 AM.
Supposedly Greens price tag is high, really high, like 1st round money high. If Fabian doesn't sign you lose his slot and Hickey is going above slot. The most you could offer Green is if both Hickey and Fabian don't sign and that number is about 800K which is probably 1/2 of what it will take.
Supposedly Hickey is also asking for 1 million. What I find strange is Hickey and Fabian are team mates.
Hickey signs for $1M. That’s the highest payment to anyone rounds 4-10.
The slot was $410K.
Does this mean no chance for Fabian?
When you say it's gonna happen now
When exactly do you mean?
Here's a good article on the players that have not yet signed:
Rocker is the most interesting. I'm wondering if the Mets didn't like the medicals and decided to lower their offer, hoping Rocker goes back to college, allowing the Mets to get next year's 11th pick.Of the 312 players selected in the first 10 rounds, just six have not come to terms. Most or all of them are expected to do so before the Sunday deadline.
https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-draft-s...eline-coverage
As far as Fabian goes, I think it is a settled matter--he is going back to college and the Red Sox will get next year's 41st pick. That could be a good thing and will give the Red Sox more spending flexibility. For example, let's say the Red Sox go big in the first round next year and decide to take a hard-to-sign high school prospect in the late first. They could pull extra resources from the 41st pick if necessary. Alternatively, the Red Sox could go slot with the first round pick and take a hard-to-sign high school prospect with the 41st pick, pulling resources from subsequent picks.
Mayer is clearly the cream here, but Fabian is what made this draft so good, IMO. Subbing him out makes this draft less of a homerun as it looks like they drafted with the idea that they'd have to overpay Fabian and Hickey, so they played it safe thereafter
Hal sucks
Interesting, the Mets could offer Rocker ZERO and they would still recover the pick (according to this source):
It sounds like the Mets saw something in his medicals and decided they would rather have next year's 11th than sign Rocker. They are probably on to something. Boras claims there is nothing wrong with Rocker but Boras is usually full of shit.Typically, a team has to offer a player 40% of his slotted bonus -- the 10th-pick slot is $4.74 million -- to reap a compensation pick for an unsigned player. Because Rocker was selected for the league's pre-draft MRI program and did not participate, however, the rules allow the Mets to forgo an offer and still receive the pick. Players expected to be drafted high often skip the program, which makes a player's medical information available to all 30 teams.
https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/...am-sources-say
No one knows Rocker's plans for the future. The article above could only speculate:
It is unclear whether Rocker will return to Vanderbilt or pursue an alternate path, such as pitching in an independent league before reentering the 2022 draft or signing with an international league.
Last edited by Fan_since_Boggs; 08-01-2021 at 12:31 PM.
Fabian was a preseason top 10 draft pick with some of the best power in the whole draft. He wasn’t your typical 41st selection
Good to hear--I think the Red Sox should load up with prep pitchers in the next draft. The Red Sox have a big wave of infield prospects coming: Casas, Mayer, Yorke, and Jordan. The Red Sox have a wave of pitching prospects coming soon: Bello, Mata, Groome. I guess the OF prospects are a little thin, but Duran will be with the Red Sox for a long time and an organization can always find outfielders.
The Red Sox do need to build another layer of pitching prospects behind the next wave and the 2022 draft could be used to build that layer.
Kinda wish we’d have signed Fabian and let others slide.
When you say it's gonna happen now
When exactly do you mean?
Jay Groome has done nothing to say he is part of a wave of anything. The guy can't throw strikes or go deep in games. He looks like a reliever. Mata just had TJS, and while that doesn't entirely disqualify him, it does push back his timeline likely into 2023. Bello is intriguing and just reached AA. He is likely to be more of a mid season callup next year at best, although I like his stuff
Hal sucks