How many wins will the 2021 Red Sox get?

[notin]

We know the pen was burnt out early because starters couldn't even make it to 5th. But the blown saves, whenever they came, were a big part preventing '19 from being a 90-win season. As for '20, the bullpen was half the starting rotation, so roles will have to be redefined by AC, beginning next week...

If the division and league aren't as strong, wouldn't a perceptive front office -- hot off the celebration of resetting -- seek to capitalize by recruiting needed talent that's been available all winter and debated here? Imagine Theo Epstein in his Boston days looking at the competition and saying, "No one else looks that good, so we don't have to fortify much"...

That's been my point much of this offseason.

I do think they are not done. Obviously any pending move with Sawamura would indicate as much. And they need to resolve an OF issue one way or another.

But there is no denying Tampa has taken steps back replacing Blake Snell and Charlie Morton with Chris Archer and Michael Wacha. Toronto has improved their pitching, but by how much? The only real newcomers are Kirby Yates and Steve Matz. And the Orioles insist on using a rotation with John Means and a slew of players most people have never heard of. I think they're recruiting pitchers using the same method the court system uses to find jurors. You get a letter in the mail telling you to report to Camden Yards on a certain day, and then you go out there and pitch.

The big problem with the "everyone else is cutting back" logic is it allows teams to also think "Well, i everyone else is cutting costs, I can dial back my own spending and still compete" (which is to goal of every GM - make the best team possible for the least amount of money). Until the Arenado trade, the entire NL Central was operating on this logic...

[mvp 78]

Fangraphs is projecting the Sox to have 87 wins. 50% chance to make WC round. The predict the rotation to be 10th best in MLB.

[moonslav59]

Fangraphs is projecting the Sox to have 87 wins. 50% chance to make WC round. The predict the rotation to be 10th best in MLB.

Our defense sucks, so even with a 10th ranked rotation and a top 5 or 6 offense, we may still struggle to reach 87 wins.

That's one reason I want EHern in CF.

[mvp 78]

dWAR since 2019 for available FA CFers:

Jackie Bradley Jr. 1.0 dWAR
Jarrod Dyson 1.1
Brett Gardner 0.7
Brian Goodwin -0.7
Billy Hamilton -0.4
Jon Jay -0.8
Jake Marisnick 0.6
Kevin Pillar -0.6
Danny Santana -0.3

[mvp 78]

Our defense sucks, so even with a 10th ranked rotation and a top 5 or 6 offense, we may still struggle to reach 87 wins.

That's one reason I want EHern in CF.

Problem is that Mr "Alt 130" is under the assumption that he was going to be the starting 2B and would play there more often than anywhere else. Why does he believe that? Is there another move to come in the OF? If not, it makes little sense to plop him at 2B and run with Renfroe/Verdugo/Beni as the starters for 120+ games. Only makes sense if Renfroe figures out how to hit RHP.

[a700hitter]

75-79 and they will need some breaks to get 79.

[5GoldGloves:OF,75]

75-79 and they will need some breaks to get 79.

81 breaks even. Do you think Cora will tell reporters in ST, "We'll win more than we lose" -- like Dick Williams did in '67?

We've already got a pair of infield stars like Rico and Boomer. Maybe if Verdugo pulls a Yaz... but who will be Lonnie: Pivetta? Richards? If one guy was ever due to harness his stuff for an entire season, it'd be Eovaldi. To talk pennant, our outfield just needs another 65 career WAR guy like Smith, and another on a Cooperstown pace (barring injury) like Tony C.

[a700hitter]

81 breaks even. Do you think Cora will tell reporters in ST, "We'll win more than we lose" -- like Dick Williams did in '67?

We've already got a pair of infield stars like Rico and Boomer. Maybe if Verdugo pulls a Yaz... but who will be Lonnie: Pivetta? Richards? If one guy was ever due to harness his stuff for an entire season, it'd be Eovaldi. To talk pennant, our outfield just needs another 65 career WAR guy like Smith, and another on a Cooperstown pace (barring injury) like Tony C.

That’s not too much to ask.

[moonslav59]

Problem is that Mr "Alt 130" is under the assumption that he was going to be the starting 2B and would play there more often than anywhere else. Why does he believe that? Is there another move to come in the OF? If not, it makes little sense to plop him at 2B and run with Renfroe/Verdugo/Beni as the starters for 120+ games. Only makes sense if Renfroe figures out how to hit RHP.

Well, Renfroe vs RHPs (.717 and .733 in 2019) is better than Beni vs LHPs (.691 but .796 in 2019), but the righty split means many more games.

The real comp is Renfroe and Beni vs Arroyo (or maybe Chavis). On offense, both blow Arroyo away as a platoon, but vs their worst splits- not so much so, but on the defensive side, we'd improve at 4 positions by playing EHern in CF full time or vs LHPs.

Arroyo:
.597 v LHPs (Beni .691)
.678 v RHPs (Renfroe .717)

We could also play Chavis v LHPs and Arroyo v RHPs and use EHern FT in CF. Although Chavis hits RHOs better than LHPs, that could just be a fluke due to small ML sample sizes, but Chavis blows Arroyo away in OPS v LHPs:

Chavis
.699 v L
.740 v R

(This assuming Chavis recovers from his 2020 splits of .650 v R and .611 v L.)

This one reason I wanted us to sign a 2Bman over a CF'er or RF'er.

[moonslav59]

dWAR since 2019 for available FA CFers:

Jackie Bradley Jr. 1.0 dWAR
Jarrod Dyson 1.1
Brett Gardner 0.7
Brian Goodwin -0.7
Billy Hamilton -0.4
Jon Jay -0.8
Jake Marisnick 0.6
Kevin Pillar -0.6
Danny Santana -0.3

Dyson's offense has really tanked sine 2016.
.674 in "17
.539 in '18
.633 in '19
.411 in '20 (just 66 PAs)

And, he's 36.

I'm sticking with Marisnick, but Pillar would be okay- though more costly and worse on D than EHern.

[Thunder]

I honestly have no idea how I feel about this team yet. My gut says under .500. Prove me wrong.

[mvp 78]

I honestly have no idea how I feel about this team yet. My gut says under .500. Prove me wrong.

My gut says just vote in the poll.

[Thunder]

My gut says just vote in the poll.

This isn't a Presidential Election. I don't have to vote if I don't like any of the options

[harmony]

The Red Sox will fall just short of the 84 wins posted by the 2019 club that got 6.8 fWAR from Xander Bogaerts, 6.6 from Mookie Betts, 5.9 from Rafael Devers, 3.7 from Eduardo Rodriguez, 3.6 from Chris Sale, 3.5 from Christian Vazquez, 3.2 from J.D. Martinez, 2.4 from David Price, 2.0 from Andrew Benintendi and 1.4 from Jackie Bradley Jr.

Or not.

[moonslav59]

This isn't a Presidential Election. I don't have to vote if I don't like any of the options

A large amount of people didn't vote for a president, either.