93 or more
87 - 92
81 - 86
76 - 80
67 - 75
66 or less
I think the Sox win 25-30 games.
I am not liking their chances without Sale, Price, Porcello and Betts. That;s an awful lot of talent to lose from a team that was only 3 games over .500 last year. I don't think Martin Perez, Brian Johnson, and Ryan Weber are going to replace Sale, Price and Porcello very adequately.
I do think Collin McHugh is a step up over Weber and Johnson, but will he start over either? And even if he does, cracking 30 wins might be a tall order.
But hey, if they can get on a run and make it exciting, dgalehouse is right. For once, the season is a sprint...
If ERod, Eovaldi and McHugh are healthy all year, they could be fine depending on what they do with the 4th and 5th starters. I think they run out Weber as a Jalen Beeks type. If McHugh isn't ready, maybe Perez slides up to the 3rd spot and they have a bullpen game every 5th turn? It'll be really interesting to see how those last two rotations spots are managed.
I think they underperformed last year and maybe they can get to 35 - 25?
I wouldn't be surprised. With such a small number of games, the difference between .500 (30 wins) and .600 (36 wins) is only 6 wins. In a regular season, .500 almost never makes the playoffs while .600 almost always does. But this year, two really good or bad series could make the difference. It will be interesting, for sure.
I think ERod, Eovaldi and Perez are locks for the rotation. But the last two spots look like some combination of Weber, Johnson and McHugh.
Bullpen management will be very important. Pitching depth will be less important than in years past, but still could be deadly if things break wrong...
IMO, the starting rotation becomes less important in this sprint of a season. That gives the Sox an advantage that they wouldn't have had in a long season.
I think Tampa Bay is going to really benefit from the reduced number of games. Their pitching should be very good. They are my current pick for the AL East.