The Yankees & Rays games before July 31 should push the needle one way or the other.
The Yankees & Rays games before July 31 should push the needle one way or the other.
Championships since purchase by John Henry group: Red Sox 4 Yankees 1
The Red Sox are 8-1 in their last 9 postseason games against the Yankees.
At this point? No.Originally Posted by notin
The Sox are in a very difficult situation, in paper they should be better, they should be fighting with the Yankees for the division instead they are just trying to stay alive in the WC race. A lot of season still left and a lot of things can change.
As somebody explained before, the difference between the 2016 Yanks and the 2019 Sox is that the Yankees were loaded in the upper & mid levels of the minors (Sanchez, Judge, Severino, Bird?!, Montomery, Andujar, etc.) and they were able to take advantage of an unusual trade deadline urgency for the type of players (Chapman, Miller, Beltran, McCann, etc) the Yankees wanted to trade, in the first two they got a ton of good prospects, some keepers and others pieces for different trades.
The Sox upper levels of the minors don't have much, so the issue here is: blow the thing open and sell every useful player they have to retool the farm and contend in 2 or 3 years, or simply keep selling what is left in the farm and plug holes with money, as the Yankees did for so many years.
BTW, I don't understand the hate for Benintendi, he's an above average ballplayer he was a force last year and is young enough to get better, he's just not the superstar some people thought he was, if the Sox trade him they will regret it; also with Betts, the guy is an all-star, not in Trout level (nobody is), he probably won't be worth the money he will demand, but those are homegrown players, which should get the benefit of the doubt. I hope this doesn't happen with Devers.
I absolutely do not think the Sox should give up the ship and become sellers . This team has too much talent and we have too much invested in it to do that . It is disappointing to be shooting for a wild card instead of the division, but it is what it is . Go for it . As stated elsewhere , using Eovaldi as closer could be the catalyst needed to spark this club .
For what it's worth, Rafael Devers and Xander Bogaerts came in No. 14 and No. 19 on FanGraphs' annual midseason trade value list:
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2019-trade-value-11-to-20/
I don't judge player value based on just their previous 90 game sample size. We have our weak areas, but so do those teams.
Think long and hard about what I am about to say:
Suppose you were a fan of team A or B and were 1-2 games up on the last WC slot and had these holes, would you still like our chances better than the defending champs 1-2 games behind you?
Team A (Oakland)
#4 in PAs .680 OPS (Profar at 2B)
#5 in PAs .696 OPS (Piscotty in RF and now on IL)
#6 in PAs .718 OPS (K Davis at DH)
#7 in PAs .752 (Grossman in LF)
Closer: 4.54 ERA/1.563 WHIP (worse than our closers)
3 key set-up men (all with over 42 IP): Soria (4.67), Trivino (4.29) and Brooks (5.01)Others with 22+ IP: Wendelkin 4.56, Estrada 6.85 & Anderson 6.04.
Their rotation is doing very well, but can you honestly say you think these starters are better than ours?
Mike Fiers, Brett Anderson, Frankie Montas, Chris Bassit & Daniel Mengden
Team B (CLE)
Last year's MVP candidate, Jose Ramirez, is second in PAs on the team and has a .684 OPS.
#4 in PAs .707 J Bauers
#5 in PAs .666 J Kipnis
#5 in PAs .619 L Martin
Kluber, Carrasco and JRodrigues are on the IL. Yes, Bauer, Bieber and Clevinger are doing very well, but I still like our top 3 in the playoffs over theirs. Other SP'ers: Plesac 3.56 & Plutko 5.40
Their pen was not supposed to be all that good, but they have over-performed,to date. Brad Hand 25 svs (2.29) and the rest are almost all under 4.00.
I can imagine this board would be crying about us having no chance of winning with 2 black holes in the line-up. These teams have 3-4 black holes.
What sucks about our team, on paper, is our budget, our budget future and our empty farm.
This is that same team that won 118 games minus a Joe Kelly most felt should not have even been on the playoff rosters and the ticking time bomb Kimbrel. On paper, this team was better than those ahead of us now, when the year started. I still think we are better, as lomng as a few players start playing to their skill level, and SOON!
When you say it's gonna happen now
When exactly do you mean?
Many of the best pitchers in MLB struggled at some point between 29-31 years old and then regained much of what they lost. Here's a post from earlier...
Most great pitchers lose some velocity as they age and re-adjust. Most have a period, where they struggle, usually between 30-34. Not all end up regaining some of what they lost by using their experience, improved location and just plain "smarts," but sometimes it takes time.
Yes, Sale is a fierce competitor, so that should help him find a way to get back to respectability. It may take time, and time is not on the Sox side, right now. Our window is closing quickly, and Sale may need months of even years to get back to near where he was before.
Price struggled at age 30, and many here gave up on him and called his contract an albatross.
Here's a look at the best 14 SP'ers by WAR since 2004:
Verlander: was a stud almost every year (peaked at age 28-29), except age 25 (4.84), then at age 31 he slipped to 4.54 (worst WHIP since age 25), but then quickly recovered and has had his best 2 WHIP and K/BB rates the last 2 years (2.52 and 2.98 ERAs) He's been 2.52 to .338 since his meltdown season in 2014.
Kershaw: has been a beast since age 21. From ages 23-29 his ERA was always between 1.77 and 2.53!)His WHIP was below 1.005 straight years from ages 23-29). It's hard to call 2.73 (last year) and 3.09 (this year) a meltdown, but he has show some decline (His last two WHIP'd have been his highest since age 23.) The jury is out on him getting back to peak prime, but he's still doing great.
Scherzer: Max has been a beast since age 28. He was not all that great before then. His worst ERA since age 28 was at age 29 (3.15) and 31 (2.96)- hardly setback years. He breaks the mold. His best ERA seasons?
2.30 at age 34 (2019)
2.51 at age 32
2.53 at age 33
3.79 at age 30
(He's been under 1.000 WHIP his last 5 seasons. He was at 1.175 in that age 29 season or 2014.)
Sabathia: A classic example of a thrower who had to reinvent himself into a pitcher. He was great from ages 25-31 (2.70-3.38 every year), but he struggled for 3 seasons (hopefully Sale doesn't). He was at 4.73 to 5.28 from ages 32-34, but then improved. He never came close to pre age 30 CC, but 3.91, 3.69, 3.65 and 4.03 are not bad (much better than 32-34).
Greinke: Zack has had 2 fantastic seasons (ages 25 and 31) He's been up and down at various ages.
2.16 to 3.69 ages 23-25
3.83 to 4.17 at 26-27
3.43 age 28
1.66 to 2.63 ages 29-31
4.37 at age 32 (meltdown season)
2.73-3.20 ages 33-35 regained form
Felix H: This is the guy we hope Sale does not become. He was fantastic from ages 23-28 with an ERA between 2.14 and 3.47. 5 of 6 seasons he was below 3.06! Age 29 was not bad, but it showed decline (3.53). He has declined ever since:
3.82
4.36
5.55
6.52 (His WHIP has declined in 4 of his last 5 seasons, too.)
Hamels: Cole has been pretty consistent all the way from age 2010 to today, but he did have one season out of the norm at age 33 (4.20) His WHIP spiked a bit from ages 32-34. He was 2.46 to 3.60 every year from 2010 to 2019, except
3.65 age 31
4.20 age 33
3.78 age 34
(He's at 2.98 this year at age 35.)
C Lee: retired after his age 35 season. He was so-so to bad until age 29 spike year (2.54 ERA. He then went to 3.22 at age 30 but got slightly better afterwards
3.18 at age 31
2.40 age 32
3.16b age 33
2.87 age 34
Then, 3.65 in his final season in MLB.
Halladay: HOF'er was very consistent from ages 24-34 (2.35 to 3.71 every year, except at age 27 he went 4.20). His best 4 years were all from ages 31-34, which is encouraging to Sale's case.
2.78
2.79
2.44
2.35
Then melted down quickly
4.49 age 35
6.82 age 36.
Lester: Our man Jon has had 2 "meltdown" seasons:
4.82 age 28 (the memorable 2012 collapse team)
4.33 age 33 with the Cubs
He was 3.21 to 3.47 from ages 25-27 and 3.75 at age 29 (2013)
2.46 age 30 (traded to OAK)
3.34 age 32
2.44 age 33
4.33 age 34 (His WHIP has been over 1.30 the last 3 years ages 33-35, but he has improved his ERA since 2017's 4.33 mark:
3.32
3.74
He seems to have improved after the blip.
C Sale: 1.93 to 3.41 every year until age 30: 4.27 currently. The rest is a huge Q mark.
Peavy: Jake has been all over the map, reinventing himself several times:
2.27
2.28
4.09 age 25
2.54
2.85
3.45
4.63 and 4.92 ages 29-30
3.37 age 31
4.17 age 32
Improved to 3.73 and 3.58 at ages 33-34 before finishing his career with a 5.54 ERA at age 35. Again, a pitcher showing you can improve after meltdown seasons.
Price: 2.45 to 3.49 every year after age 23, 3.99 & highest WHIP at age 30, then 3.24-3.58 the next 3 years (his last 2 years under his career WHIP)
Lackey: Injuries messed up his progression.
3.44 to 3.83 ages 26-30
4.40 age 31 w BOS
6.41 age 32 BOS (pitched while hurt, IMO)
Missed year age 33
3.52 age 34 (2013)
3.82 age 34 (traded)
2.77 age 35
3.35 age 36
4.59 age 38 (last season)
Another example of a pitcher regaining form after a meltdown in his early 30's.
Most of the best pitchers showed some late improvements after dipping in the early 30's.
When you say it's gonna happen now
When exactly do you mean?
Pythagorean Records:
52-44 BOS
51-43 CLE
When you say it's gonna happen now
When exactly do you mean?
^This. God, yes, this.^
What's all this talk about a fire sale? This team is good enough offensively and defensively to be WSC contenders. A Fire Sale is tantamount to throwing the baby out with the bath water.
I certainly don't like what's happening in 2019 but I wouldn't be having any "fire sales" prior to 2020.
And as our "cerebral friend" intimated, I CERTAINLY wouldn't be attempting to trade Devers and/or Bogarts. It's right up there with Stupid Idea #1.
It's a mere moment in a man's life between the All-Star game and the Old Timer's game.
-Vin Scully
Terrible job by Cora to have Travis and Leon in this lineup.... .188 and .186.... what a waste of a roster spots!
And this has to do with trades how?
The Yankees could go 0-162 and it wouldn't be enough
Triple fail post, nice job.
Championships since purchase by John Henry group: Red Sox 4 Yankees 1
The Red Sox are 8-1 in their last 9 postseason games against the Yankees.
Is he worth a flyer:
Drew Smyly Elects Free Agency
By Steve Adams | July 18, 2019 at 1:10pm CDT
Veteran left-hander Drew Smyly has opted out of his minor league contract with the Brewers, MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand reports (on Twitter). Smyly had signed a minor league pact with Milwaukee back on July 1 after being cut loose from the Rangers.
Smyly made three starts with Milwaukee’s top affiliate in San Antonio, where he allowed seven runs on 10 hits (two homers) and three walks with 18 strikeouts in 12 2/3 innings of work. It’s a small but slightly more encouraging showing than he had with Texas earlier in the year. Smyly, pitching in the big leagues for the first time since 2017 Tommy John surgery, was tattooed for an 8.42 ERA in 51 1/3 innings as a Ranger. While he averaged better than a strikeout per inning there, Smyly also walked 34 batters (6.0 BB/9) and served up a staggering 19 home runs (3.33 HR/9).
Prior to undergoing surgery, Smyly displayed a knack for missing bats and strong control skills, but home runs have long been an issue for him. He’s always been an extreme fly-ball pitcher, and the league-wide uptick in home runs hasn’t done him any favors in 2019. Smyly’s average fastball velocity is back to its career norm, and he’s avoided any trips to the injured list thus far, so it seems as though he’s back to full strength following that surgery. He’ll head back to the open market in search of a new opportunity with a club that has its eyes on some affordable rotation depth; any team that signs Smyly would only owe him the prorated league minimum for any time spent in the Majors
The King of TalkSox has Spoken.
Well, a “fire sale” typically implies dealing anyone and everyone.
I just think the Sox need to move a few pieces whose value is maximized right now and focus on 2020. Specifically, I think the Sox should move Porcello and, for the right price, Betts.
I’m on the fence about Barnes.
I think they have a solid lineup core in Bogaerts, Devers, and Benintendi and know who 3 of their 5 starting pitchers in 2020 already. Both of these can be enhanced a bit,..
Personally I'd trade Marco and Mitch .Clear Chavis for 1b and Go after Scooter from the Reds .I would look into getting Hunter Henry to play LF .I would then look for a platoon from he and Benny .I would make JD Full time DH and ask one last time to reup if no I'd trade him now .
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