A Realistic View at 2019: Part I

[Kimmi]

Let's not forget that before these 4 straight losses, we had gone 18-8, including losing 2 out of 3 to the Astros while outscoring them, losing an 11 inning game to Colorado 5-4, and losing 6 of those 8 games by just 1-2 runs.

If we go 18-8 again, starting now, how will this board react?

You are never as bad as you look when you're team is losing, and never as good as you look when you're winning. We've had some bad games. We've also run into some bad luck and some bad timing as far as when we've played certain teams.

We can't expect to make up 5 games in a week. One game at a time.

[Kimmi]

That's when he starts lecturing us about the respective states of our franchises.

LOL Truth.

[moonslav59]

You are never as bad as you look when you're team is losing, and never as good as you look when you're winning. We've had some bad games. We've also run into some bad luck and some bad timing as far as when we've played certain teams.

We can't expect to make up 5 games in a week. One game at a time.

My point was we came pretty close to a 24-2 or 22-4 run, which rivals last year's best run.

IMO, I think this team still has a big run in them. We can also win back games slowly.

[oldtimer]

My point was we came pretty close to a 24-2 or 22-4 run, which rivals last year's best run.

IMO, I think this team still has a big run in them. We can also win back games slowly.

We'll see if your optimistic thinking is justified. At what point would you believe the Sox are out of it in 2019, should we continue to play lackluster ball? Ten games back in the loss column with 3 teams ahead in the wild card race? I am not saying it will happen just would be interested in how long your optimism would hold up?

[moonslav59]

We'll see if your optimistic thinking is justified. At what point would you believe the Sox are out of it in 2019, should we continue to play lackluster ball? Ten games back in the loss column with 3 teams ahead in the wild card race? I am not saying it will happen just would be interested in how long your optimism would hold up?

3 games back in the wildcard with 5 teams ahead of us is nothing,let alone 2 or 3.

1) What makes you think we'll continue playing lackluster ball for the next 100 games? (Especially when all we have to do is just play like we did in May every month goign forward to make the WC,

2) How come so many posters can so quickly dismiss last year as being overly lucky, but can't entertain the idea that maybe this year has been bad luck, and that will change?

3) Our SP'er look way different over the past 6-7 weeks than the first 2-3 weeks, and maybe Eovaldi can give us a big boost. Is our offense and SP'ing that bad?

4) Can a mediocre pen really be enough to keep us from the WC? (Will we not trade for a solid pen arm or two this summer?)

[moonslav59]

We'll see if your optimistic thinking is justified. At what point would you believe the Sox are out of it in 2019, should we continue to play lackluster ball? Ten games back in the loss column with 3 teams ahead in the wild card race? I am not saying it will happen just would be interested in how long your optimism would hold up?

I'm usually the last to give up, but I know I'm not even close, at this point. This team is too damn good to stay near .500 in a league full of many very bad teams.

[cp176]

We will be in a battle for the second wildcard and should get it. We saw a very much improving young Tampa Bay team have a very good season last year. They are good and have picked up right where they left off. New York was good and got better during the off season. it is looking likely that almost holding a pat hand and going with what got us there last year minus a couple of key role players isn't going to be enough to beat the Yanks and the Rays over the long course of the season. it wouldn't be a bet I'd take that we will catch either of them. I think that we will get that second wc and anything obviously can happen form there. Reality sucks but there you go.

[oldtimer]

3 games back in the wildcard with 5 teams ahead of us is nothing,let alone 2 or 3.

1) What makes you think we'll continue playing lackluster ball for the next 100 games? (Especially when all we have to do is just play like we did in May every month goign forward to make the WC,

2) How come so many posters can so quickly dismiss last year as being overly lucky, but can't entertain the idea that maybe this year has been bad luck, and that will change?

3) Our SP'er look way different over the past 6-7 weeks than the first 2-3 weeks, and maybe Eovaldi can give us a big boost. Is our offense and SP'ing that bad?

4) Can a mediocre pen really be enough to keep us from the WC? (Will we not trade for a solid pen arm or two this summer?)

What makes me think the lackluster performance could continue is the first two months performance. To dismiss it out of hand in my opinion is overly optimistic. Our BP is shaky and our hitters are more average this year. Could they perform better? Certainly they could but also they could continue as they have for the last couple of months which would mean trouble.

[Maxbialystock]

I'm fairly pessimistic right now because I think this version of the Sox lacks confidence.

But I could not be more pleased with the optimistic drumbeat from kimmi and from moonslav.

I did not object to DD's decision not to invest heavily in the bullpen, and think they would have been fine were it not for the horrible start by the rotation which, combined with very few off days, put a heavy load on the bullpen. But right now, while I feel no compulsion to get Kimbrel back, I am envious of the Yankees bullpen. I think it is their biggest strength and gives the rest of the team confidence. Thus they are winning lots of games despite many injuries to the lineup.

I do think the Sox have the hitting and the rotation to gain ground as long as the bullpen doesn't repeat what happened vs. the Indians in games 2 and 3.

[Slasher9]

I'm usually the last to give up, but I know I'm not even close, at this point. This team is too damn good to stay near .500 in a league full of many very bad teams.

i never give up. not even when the germans bombed pearl harbor.
until Math eliminates us i dont hear a peep from the fat lady....

[mvp 78]

i never give up. not even when the germans bombed pearl harbor.
until Math eliminates us i dont hear a peep from the fat lady....

The Germans didn't bomb Pearl Harbor, it was an inside job.

[Maxbialystock]

I looked up bullpen salaries with an expectation of proving you can get a pretty darn good one for $30M/year.

Wrong. The Yankees have four very good relievers--Brittan, Kahnle, Ottavino, and Chapman--who make a combined $40.4M. Chapman gets $17M, Britton $13M, and Ottavino $9M.

And guess what the Sox pay their so-so bullpen? $5.5M total for Barnes, Hembree, Workman, Walden, Brasier, and Weber. Barnes is top dollar at $1.6M and Weber is low with $400K.

Obviously, the Yankees can afford to pay more for their bullpen because they are paying less for their lineup and rotation.

[OH FOY!]

The thing is the Yanks have Cap space if they want to improve. According to Sportstrac they have 31+million they could still spend before they hit the Luxury Tax threshold.
https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/tax/

[moonslav59]

The thing is the Yanks have Cap space if they want to improve. According to Sportstrac they have 31+million they could still spend before they hit the Luxury Tax threshold.

They could acquire Scherzer.

[OH FOY!]

They could acquire Scherzer.

They have kids who are playing every day, who they can Trade now. German, Frazier, Urshela, Byrd, not counting their Minor Leaguers. Tons of Options.
Scherzer Luxury Tax hit is $28,689,376, now probably less.