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Thread: A Realistic View at 2019: Part I

  1. #6421
    Deity moonslav59's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by devildavid View Post
    Batting average tells accurately what percentage you hit the ball safely in all your at bats which you hit the ball either for a hit or an out. That is what at bats are considered in baseball and everyone is aware of that fact. Hitting is so difficult that slight variations in average indicate wide variation in the ability to hit safely.

    SLG is flawed and OPS more flawed. And it appears that not everyone is aware of that.
    OPS is flawed, but to me, OPS tells me way more than BA.

    The biggest flaw of OPS is that OBP should be weighted more highly than SLG. Although SLG% is flawed as well, it does help distinguish between a .300 hitter with 15 XBHs and a .300 hitter with 65 XBHs. One is clearly much better than the other, and BA, flawed as well, doesn't tell you about. BA also counts walks as zero. That's a major flaw.

    Since OPS actually counts BA twice, I'd think you like it.
    When you say it's gonna happen now
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  2. #6422
    OPS is a good measure of offensive productivity. However , it is not a true stat . It is a concoction. Someone had the idea to add two stats together and create a new one . Now , it is pretty much accepted. I don't like the fact that it ignores stolen bases .

  3. #6423
    Deity moonslav59's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Maxbialystock View Post
    You misunderstand. Three catchers isn’t about catching or the bullpen. It’s about getting Vazquez’s .881 OPS in the lineup more often by letting him DH sometimes.
    Do you really expect Vaz to continue hitting .880+?

    Do you really want to play JD in the OF more?

    Do you really want to add a catcher, when we already are facing a roster crunch when Holt and Pedey return? (I'm fine with DFA'ing Nunez, if Pedey proves his health, but to keep Holt, Pedey and Chavis around, we'd have to DFA or trade Pearce to make room for a 3rd catcher.) I seriously doubt we dump Pearce and bench JBJ, so Vaz can DH more.

    If we want to DH Vaz, we can do it without a 3rd catcher. The only risk is losing the DH, if Leon gets hurt or PH for.
    When you say it's gonna happen now
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  4. #6424
    Deity Bellhorn04's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by dgalehouse View Post
    OPS is a good measure of offensive productivity. However , it is not a true stat . It is a concoction. Someone had the idea to add two stats together and create a new one . Now , it is pretty much accepted. I don't like the fact that it ignores stolen bases .
    If you want a stat that tries to incorporate all offensive production including baserunning, it's offensive WAR.
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  5. #6425
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    I like simple, BA tells me the basic thing, can a Batter hit a ball in play that nobody can catch, consistently. Or more like better consistency, since you fail 7 out of 10 times, and are a very good hitter. Their is no difference in a 2 run single and a 2 run HR, to me. The 2 Runs scored is the important thing.
    Fans forget the word Runs is the most important thing, in baseball.
    Every game is so different, that's why its great. You can get No-hit and win, crazy.
    Last edited by OH FOY!; 05-18-2019 at 04:02 PM.

  6. #6426
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    Quote Originally Posted by OH FOY! View Post
    I like simple, BA tells me the basic thing, can a Batter hit a ball in play that nobody can catch, consistently. Or more like better consistency, since you fail 7 out of 10 times, and are a very good hitter. Their is no difference in a 2 run single and a 2 run HR, to me. The 2 Runs scored is the important thing.
    Fans forget the word Runs is the most important thing, in baseball.
    Every game is so different, that's why its great. You can get No-hit and win, crazy.
    I'd rather have a guy who gets 2 hits and 2 walks every 10 PAs (.250 BA) than someone who gets 3 hits and no walks every 10 PAs (.300 BA), unless he hits for much more power, but then again, BA does not "capture" HRs and XBHs either.
    When you say it's gonna happen now
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  7. #6427
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    Quote Originally Posted by dgalehouse View Post
    OPS is a good measure of offensive productivity. However , it is not a true stat . It is a concoction. Someone had the idea to add two stats together and create a new one . Now , it is pretty much accepted. I don't like the fact that it ignores stolen bases .

    Not many offensive stats do include stolen bases. There was a stat called “total average” that included SB, CS, and just about everything else from a box score. But it was abandoned for being too cumbersome. Of course, this was in the days before computers. Not sure why it never resurfaced...

  8. #6428
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    Quote Originally Posted by devildavid View Post
    Batting average tells accurately what percentage you hit the ball safely in all your at bats which you hit the ball either for a hit or an out. That is what at bats are considered in baseball and everyone is aware of that fact. Hitting is so difficult that slight variations in average indicate wide variation in the ability to hit safely.

    SLG is flawed and OPS more flawed. And it appears that not everyone is aware of that.

    Batting average tells you everyone basically hits the same. You draw the conclusions on your own. But the reality the the difference between a .280 hitter and a .240 hitter is not that great. One hit every 25 at bats. Over 6 months, that’s only 20 hits. Batting average tells you the whole league gets hits between 20 and 30 percent of the time. That you interpret this to be a wide range is a greater indication of the actual flaw in the stat. By your own admission, small differences show a wide range of ability. That’s an indication of a problem in any type of measuring system. If you took a class in school and the teacher said “This test is worth 100 points, and if you score 90% you get an A, 87% is a B, 84 % is a C and anything below 80% and you fail and have to repeat the class and the teaching staff will bully you on Instagram,” wouldn’t you wonder why that tight range encompassed such a wide variety of outcomes? Yet you accept it with batting average solely out of familiarity.

    Also you cslll SLG flawed and OPS flawed, but you haven’t yet said what the flaws are...

  9. #6429
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    Quote Originally Posted by OH FOY! View Post
    I like simple, BA tells me the basic thing, can a Batter hit a ball in play that nobody can catch, consistently. Or more like better consistency, since you fail 7 out of 10 times, and are a very good hitter. Their is no difference in a 2 run single and a 2 run HR, to me. The 2 Runs scored is the important thing.
    Fans forget the word Runs is the most important thing, in baseball.
    Every game is so different, that's why its great. You can get No-hit and win, crazy.

    There’s a big difference between a 2 run single and a 2 run home run. You can’t hit a 2 run single with one man on base...

  10. #6430
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    The worst thing about batting average is that it spawned that stupid expression about even the best hitters failing 7 out of 10 times.

    Williams and Ruth both got on base 48% of the time.
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  11. #6431
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bellhorn04 View Post
    The worst thing about batting average is that it spawned that stupid expression about even the best hitters failing 7 out of 10 times.

    Williams and Ruth both got on base 48% of the time.

    OBP > Batting Average

    OBP is essentially the “percentage of times the hitter does not make an out.” And it doesn’t have any of the stupid exceptions batting average has...

  12. #6432
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    Quote Originally Posted by notin View Post
    OBP > Batting Average

    OBP is essentially the “percentage of times the hitter does not make an out.” And it doesn’t have any of the stupid exceptions batting average has...
    ...and SLG% > BA

    OPS> OBP> SLG> BA
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  13. #6433
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    Roster moves to ponder....

    Leon returns: O Hernandez goes down.
    Price returns: Josh A Smith goes down
    DFA Thornburg: Call up Pedey or Holt
    Eovaldi returns: DFA Brewer

    The toughest call is when the last one healthy out of Pedey & Holt are healthy. We'll need to choose from these options (assuming everyone is healthy):

    1) Create a phantom IL stint to prolong the choice (Pearce, Nunez, JBJ).
    2) Trade or DFA Nunez or Pearce.

    When Johnson is healthy, we may have to demote Weber or ______?



    When you say it's gonna happen now
    When exactly do you mean?

  14. #6434
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    Quote Originally Posted by moonslav59 View Post
    Roster moves to ponder....

    Leon returns: O Hernandez goes down.
    Price returns: Josh A Smith goes down
    DFA Thornburg: Call up Pedey or Holt
    Eovaldi returns: DFA Brewer

    The toughest call is when the last one healthy out of Pedey & Holt are healthy. We'll need to choose from these options (assuming everyone is healthy):

    1) Create a phantom IL stint to prolong the choice (Pearce, Nunez, JBJ).
    2) Trade or DFA Nunez or Pearce.

    When Johnson is healthy, we may have to demote Weber or ______?




    The Sox will demote before DFA.

    Brewer, for example, has options left. He isn’t getting DFAd. But he might go to Pawtucket.

  15. #6435
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    Quote Originally Posted by notin View Post
    The Sox will demote before DFA.

    Brewer, for example, has options left. He isn’t getting DFAd. But he might go to Pawtucket.
    True.
    When you say it's gonna happen now
    When exactly do you mean?

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