Red Sox To Sign J.D. Martinez

[fxkatt]

One thing we needn't concern ourselves with this season is JD's embitterment at being low-balled. He's got the best to two worlds: 25 mill for two years here, and then a chance for even more. The only loser, if any, could be the Sox and that's only if somehow he loses it in his second year and for the rest of his playing years, and decided to stay and collect 20 mill per. But the latter is very unlikely since he'll be playing for keeps in that 2nd year.

[Hitch]

I really feel DD has played this off-season to perfection. He's brought in Moreland to keep down Hanley's at bats. Brought back a lightening rod of a player for us last year, for next to nothing. And brought in the power we needed for a much lower price than expected.

All this while not losing a single prospect or needing to trade one of our starters.

And in an atmosphere of people losing those minds over perceived inaction.

Great off season so far.

[vjcsmoke]

The Red Sox finally got their man! I'm ok with the opt out clause. After 2 years, the market will be different, new players will become available, and even farm prospects might become legit big league options.
All in all, not too shabby 5 years 110 for an aav of 22m. And JD gets paid more richly up front. Win-Win for both sides.

I'm satisfied with the look of the Red Sox offense for 2018.

Now what do we do about our relief situation?

[moonslav59]

I don’t see Pedroia playing more than 5 games a week, so Nunez, Bradley, Beny, and Devers sit once or twice a week. The crunch is made worse by the fact that we need to find playing time for 11 full time players. I don’t think that either Moreland or Hanley will take well to a strict platoon.

The worst part about the 11 in need of playing time is that 2 basically play only 1B/DH (Moreland & HRam) and JD should only DH to maximize his PAs and minimize his injury chances. HRam & Moreland might be the two guys I'd rather have Nunez, Beni and JBJ play instead of.

Of course, Vaz is likely the worst bat of the 11, but who is 10th?

It's probably best to look at the splits and think about platoons or pseudo platoons.

Career numbers by Sox players (2015-2017 in parenthesis):

vs RHPs

.838 Beni
.838 (.767) HRam
.836 (.920) JDM
.833 (.836) Betts
.792 (.787) Pedroia
.779 (.782) Moreland
.747 (.790) Nunez
.743 Devers (only 183 PAs)
.736 (.808) JBJ
.726 (.754) Bogey

1) Devers should not be platooned, and his 2017 reverse splits were probably a fluke.

2) Bogey should be moved down in the order vs RHPs and rest only vs RHPs.

3) HRam has been worse than Moreland vs RHPs since 2015, but it's close, so we could see HRam vs LH'd starters and some RH'd starters- enough to be close to a 50-50 split with Moreland, but since HRam can DH when JDM plays the OF, they should both get over 400 PAs.

vs LHPs:
1.074 Devers(57 PAs)
.921 (1.021) JDM
.897 (.843) HRam
.859 (.862) Betts
.850 (.847) Pedroia
.826 (.853) Bogey
.723 (.754) JBJ
.710 (.732) Nunez
.625 (.716) Moreland
.583 Beni(needs to be watched closely)

1) I do not want Beni to platoon. He's too young to not give a chance with LHPs, but we need to watch closely and act accordingly, if necessary.

2) Moreland should never start vs LHPs.

3) Nunez should siut vs LHPs.

4) JBJ should only rest vs LHP and maybe could sit more than just when needing rest.

So, vs RHPs, I'd rest players this often:

(Assuming we face 5 RH'd starters and 2 LH'd starters per week)
HRam 2 of 7 days (vs RHPs)
Nunez 2 of 7 (v L or R)
Bogey 1 of 7 (v R)
Moreland 2 of 7 (v L)

[moonslav59]

I really feel DD has played this off-season to perfection. He's brought in Moreland to keep down Hanley's at bats. Brought back a lightening rod of a player for us last year, for next to nothing. And brought in the power we needed for a much lower price than expected.

All this while not losing a single prospect or needing to trade one of our starters.

And in an atmosphere of people losing those minds over perceived inaction.

Great off season so far.

Just a week ago, DD was getting roasted.

Now look.

[Nick]

You were right on Middlebrooks

Crazy: No homegrown Sox starter (except Clay and Jon) has logged more than 450 career innings since 2006.

That's pretty unbelievable. Epitome of development failure.

[bosoxmal]

It was probably a lock all along.

All the rest was just rigmarole.

And conversation.

[cp176]

The worst part about the 11 in need of playing time is that 2 basically play only 1B/DH (Moreland & HRam) and JD should only DH to maximize his PAs and minimize his injury chances. HRam & Moreland might be the two guys I'd rather have Nunez, Beni and JBJ play instead of.

Of course, Vaz is likely the worst bat of the 11, but who is 10th?

It's probably best to look at the splits and think about platoons or pseudo platoons.

Career numbers by Sox players (2015-2017 in parenthesis):

vs RHPs

.838 Beni
.838 (.767) HRam
.836 (.920) JDM
.833 (.836) Betts
.792 (.787) Pedroia
.779 (.782) Moreland
.747 (.790) Nunez
.743 Devers (only 183 PAs)
.736 (.808) JBJ
.726 (.754) Bogey

1) Devers should not be platooned, and his 2017 reverse splits were probably a fluke.

2) Bogey should be moved down in the order vs RHPs and rest only vs RHPs.

3) HRam has been worse than Moreland vs RHPs since 2015, but it's close, so we could see HRam vs LH'd starters and some RH'd starters- enough to be close to a 50-50 split with Moreland, but since HRam can DH when JDM plays the OF, they should both get over 400 PAs.

vs LHPs:
1.074 Devers(57 PAs)
.921 (1.021) JDM
.897 (.843) HRam
.859 (.862) Betts
.850 (.847) Pedroia
.826 (.853) Bogey
.723 (.754) JBJ
.710 (.732) Nunez
.625 (.716) Moreland
.583 Beni(needs to be watched closely)

1) I do not want Beni to platoon. He's too young to not give a chance with LHPs, but we need to watch closely and act accordingly, if necessary.

2) Moreland should never start vs LHPs.

3) Nunez should siut vs LHPs.

4) JBJ should only rest vs LHP and maybe could sit more than just when needing rest.

So, vs RHPs, I'd rest players this often:

(Assuming we face 5 RH'd starters and 2 LH'd starters per week)
HRam 2 of 7 days (vs RHPs)
Nunez 2 of 7 (v L or R)
Bogey 1 of 7 (v R)
Moreland 2 of 7 (v L)

I'm thinking that JD will find some time in left field. I'm not of the opinion that he is as bad an outfielder as statistical evidence seems to make him out to be. Hanley's playing time will absolutely be dictated by his health as well how he produces. If he is healthy and hits, he will play. Moreland will still get his at bats. He can field the position and has a little pop in that bat. This is a great problem for Cora to have. Personally, now it makes no difference to me where Betts bats in our lineup but I would really like to see Martinez, Ramirez, and Devers lined right up. This potential lineup has got to look devastating to any opponent. Particularly when you consider what our pitching staff could also look like. Jacksonian whatever was absolutely right. My dreams for this team have come true and I am all aboard this train. Now that some of the pressure to produce bigly at the plate has been eliminated, some of these guys that some here feel grossly under achieved last year may very well surprise us all.

[Kimmi]

So we are all happy that JD was signed for much less than was being talked about. 5/110 is easier to swallow than 5/25, 6/150 or even worse.

Yeah the front loaded deal with two opt outs seems preferable.

But what happens if he is injured or does not perform to expectations and he does not choose to opt out? Does everyone think the last 3 years at $60. mil will be such a great deal then?

He will be 31 this season. He will be 33 and 34 in the opt out years. If he is not getting it done years 34, 35, and 36 will be more of the same dead money shit we have now with Fatboy and Hanley.

I am not a fan of long term contracts, but as long term contracts go, this one is bearable for me. You are absolutely right that if JD does not hit, we could have more dead money on our hands. There's definitely that risk, which is why long term contracts should not become the norm.

I still prefer the Mitch Moreland type signings, but I'm very happy that we have JD.

[Kimmi]

A Moreland-Ramirez platoon could be one of the most productive 1B positions in the league ... Moreland has never hit lefties. You might give Ramirez more at-bats than a simple L/R platoon.

Now I could see Holt not starting the season to give some flexibility early.

This was the plan initially when Moreland was signed, then Ramirez' injury kept him from being able to play in the field. If Hanley is healthy, I agree that we could see a lot of production from a 1B platoon.

[Kimmi]

I'm taking Cora's word for it ...

Betts RF
Beni LF
Nunez 2B (didn't he have the highest OPS last year?)
JD DH
Devers 3B
Xander SS
Mitch 1B
Vaz C
JBJ CF

I think the line up looks pretty good no matter how you slice it up.

[Kimmi]

One thing we needn't concern ourselves with this season is JD's embitterment at being low-balled. He's got the best to two worlds: 25 mill for two years here, and then a chance for even more. The only loser, if any, could be the Sox and that's only if somehow he loses it in his second year and for the rest of his playing years, and decided to stay and collect 20 mill per. But the latter is very unlikely since he'll be playing for keeps in that 2nd year.

I agree. I think the front load and the 2 opt outs should make JD feel like he got a good deal. He should not feel like he was disrespected in any way regarding his contract.

[Kimmi]

I really feel DD has played this off-season to perfection. He's brought in Moreland to keep down Hanley's at bats. Brought back a lightening rod of a player for us last year, for next to nothing. And brought in the power we needed for a much lower price than expected.

All this while not losing a single prospect or needing to trade one of our starters.

And in an atmosphere of people losing those minds over perceived inaction.

Great off season so far.

I have been a tough critic of Dombrowski, but I have to agree that he did a very nice job this offseason.

[Kimmi]

I'm thinking that JD will find some time in left field. I'm not of the opinion that he is as bad an outfielder as statistical evidence seems to make him out to be. Hanley's playing time will absolutely be dictated by his health as well how he produces. If he is healthy and hits, he will play. Moreland will still get his at bats. He can field the position and has a little pop in that bat. This is a great problem for Cora to have. Personally, now it makes no difference to me where Betts bats in our lineup but I would really like to see Martinez, Ramirez, and Devers lined right up. This potential lineup has got to look devastating to any opponent. Particularly when you consider what our pitching staff could also look like. Jacksonian whatever was absolutely right. My dreams for this team have come true and I am all aboard this train. Now that some of the pressure to produce bigly at the plate has been eliminated, some of these guys that some here feel grossly under achieved last year may very well surprise us all.

I think there are enough at bats to go around and keep everyone well rested. Moreland was not supposed to be an everyday player when he was signed. I think he will be okay with a lesser role than what he had last year. JD will become our 4th outfielder along with being our primary DH.

Cora will figure it out.

[moonslav59]

That's pretty unbelievable. Epitome of development failure.

Makes one wonder, if we are the only MLB team like this.

BTW, great point, but here are other SP'ers from the Sox system that had 450+ IP after 2006 (maybe he meant logged 450+ with the Sox):

Anibal Sanchez 1593 IP after 20016

Derek Lowe (1319 IP)

Jorge de la Rosa (1311 IP)

Justin Masterson (1083)

Carl Pavano (751 IP)

There may be more.