I'd trade 50 less lead off/start clean PA for Betts if it means he sees 25 more PA with actual runners on.
I'd trade 50 less lead off/start clean PA for Betts if it means he sees 25 more PA with actual runners on.
Mr. Bellhorn still has it right. I'm not looking an entire season, but the extra at bat in 1 game, that might be the difference.
This isn't really an arguement I hope. i respect the fact that people have something tangible that they can point to to emphasize their ideas and thoughts. Now that being said - It is also possible that Betts could get fewer at bats and drive in more runs. It can work both ways. If it makes someone happy that they have statistical data to support their idea, good fro them. i believe that you can find statistical data to support most things that you really feel strongly about.
Yes, Betts is guarnteed to be up with no one on base during his first AB when batting first. While our 8 and 9 hitters have gotten on base recently, it is usually the case that our lower OBP guys hit in those holes so Mookie will have a lesser chance of getting up with men on base when batting 1st than 3rd. That cannot be the best approach. The 1st and 2nd hitters in the lineup are usually guys that find ways to get on base at a higher rate than the 8 and 9 hitters.
My takeaway is I would rather have Mookie up with a higher chance of driving runs in, even if it costs a few plate appearances a month. No one would have suggested we put Papi up first last year because he was our best hitter and the same should apply to Mookie.
That's an easy question. Then we change things up!
I often subscribe to the old philosophy of "If it ain't broke, don't fix it!"
I just don't want to mess with this lineup as long as we're scoring runs. When we're not scoring runs anymore is the time to fix the problem. Until then it's not a problem.
It's a mere moment in a man's life between the All-Star game and the Old Timer's game.
-Vin Scully
No, I'm not ignoring how good the batters before Betts are. That is all taken into account. The #1 and #2 guys are your highest OBP guys and 2 of your 3 best hitters, and that still leaves some of Betts' talent being 'wasted' in the 3 spot.
Anyway, it really doesn't make much of a difference.
No matter how good the #1 and #2 hitters are, the #3 guy still comes up the most often with 2 outs and no men on base. That is not the situation where you want your best hitter. I have said many times that I'd put Mookie 4th. But if the choice is between 1st or 3rd, I'm leaving him in the lead off spot.
You also have to keep in mind that it's not just about maximizing Mookie's production, but it's about maximizing the entire line up. Moving Mookie from 1st to 3rd has an effect on several other spots and hitters.
FTR, I was against calling Vazquez back up so quickly after his injury, and I was against calling up Beni and Moncada so early last year. I am a big advocate of a team having patience, both with benching players that are not doing well and with calling up players who are doing well.
I hope that the FO does not go into 'panic mode'. As many have said, I'll have to trust their judgment in knowing whether Devers is ready or not.