You don't think he'd listen on a healthy 6 year offer - one that would make him wealthy for life AND give him a shot at another big payday while still in his prime?Originally Posted by moonslav59
You don't think he'd listen on a healthy 6 year offer - one that would make him wealthy for life AND give him a shot at another big payday while still in his prime?
Wouldn't I love it if Yaz could be in tomorrow.Freudian slip?
He OPS'd .767 the last year he played. He was a negative defensive WAR player that year, so we'd have to either put him at 1B or DH.
Meh. All we have are our opinions. We think we're pretty smart, especially when we agree on something. But even moonslav, who relishes going after Farrell, says John knows more about baseball than we do.
About Vazquez. Let's not forget that our strength this year has been the pitching staff, and in my judgment Leon is a better catcher if not hitter--and that's despite his recent trials throwing guys out at 2b. I think the pitchers think that too. Maybe it's psychological, but,whatever it is, a good manager must be very attentive to those dynamics and is far more likely than we to know who is best. And that includes--just as you say--sometimes using Vazquez precisely because he has the hot bat. Plus he does have good catcher skills. DH'ing him is a terrible idea. Almost as bad, pinch-hitting for anyone other than Leon. Come September (days away), however, Farrell should be able to use Vaz any which way he wants to.
Also, happy birthday to Ted Williams' frozen head. You are 99 today! Congrats!
Solid thinking, good evidence. Like moonslav, I think his best slot is probably 3d or 4th. But I'm not so sure about right now, which is when we need him contributing in the late stages of a very competitive pennant race with a lot at stake. Agree completely the stats have a very small sample size, but that's all we've got. So far dropping him down has worked. But absolutely nothing will prevent Farrell from moving him right back up, even higher than 5th, when he thinks it will work. To me the point is to find the right slot to make him effective. And, oh, by the way, I kind of like good hitting spread throughout the lineup. moonslav has made a big issue of the simple fact that over time this season all of the OPS's are kind of coalescing around .750. Even if Farrell were to move Devers up and he hits, I'm not so sure that we would be a whole better than hitting 6th or 7th given the dynamics of this lineup.
I can't argue that Yaz was not the hitter he had been at the end of his career.
But I have absolutely no confidence in some yo-yo somehow deducing that he was a poor defender.
That is complete foolishness and anyone here that watched him and has an once of integrity would agree.
Fuck dWAR and especially assigning value to a player who stopped playing decades ago.
"Hating the Yankees like it's a religion since 94'" RIP Mike.
"It's also a simple and indisputable fact that WAR isn't the be-all end-all in valuations, especially in real life. Wanna know why? Because an ace in run-prevention for 120 innings means more often than not, a sub-standard pitcher covering for the rest of the IP that pitcher fails to provide. You can't see value in a vacuum when a player does not provide full-time production."
He might, but I want Betts from ages 31-34. I want 10 years. Yes, it's riskier, but there's upside to 10 over 6.
After 78, he played more DH than at 1B or LF. If he was still a good defender after 78, he probably would have been in the field more.
I think his best slot is probably 3d or 4th. But I'm not so sure about right now, which is when we need him contributing in the late stages of a very competitive pennant race with a lot at stake. Agree completely the stats have a very small sample size, but that's all we've got.
It's not "all we got", and what we have should not be considered the only evidence we are forced to use. I seriouslu doubt any player does better or worse because they are dropped from 5th to 7th, 6th to 7th or 8th, etc... I'm totally against the idea of comfort slots, but even if you believe it matters, Devers has no comfort in the lower slots- he's barely played there. He's batted 3-5 almost his whol professional career and done well.
I do agree that batting 3rd or 4th might put added pressure on a player, but IMO, Devers can handle it. Look what he did against the Yanks. This kid seems impervious to pressure.
So far dropping him down has worked.
So many factors go into small sample size data.
Strength or pitcher facing.
Pitchers adjusting to Devers.
Lefty-righty/home-away.
Fastball-breaking ball.
The teenie weenie sample sizes Devers has had in the 7, 8 and 9 slots are almost certainly independent of the fact that he was in those slots vs others.
7th-- 16 PAs (1.313)
8th-- 8 PAs (1.125)
9th-- 16 PAs (1.109)
Even all combined, 40 PAs is near meaningless in terms of making determinations of line-up placement.
One could just as easily argue that his 62 PAs and .669 OPS in the 5 slot is because we did not bat him 3rd or 4th--where he was most comfortable in the minors.
You're entitled to your opinions, but I'll never believe line-up slots make a significant difference, especially when we're not talking about the lead-off slot or the 3-4 slots that hold certain higher expectations. 5 vs 6 is nothing.
Respectfully, I just can't disagree more.
I much prefer that players not be moved all over the lineup at the will or impulses of the manager--or even because of all the DEEP stats.
But the problem is we have a lot of 2 and 3 type hitters, and many 7-8 type hitters. What we lack is a prime lead off guy who has an obp of better than .375 and can run. We also lack classic 4-6 hitters. Hanley when hitting better makes a good 6, but that leaves us with no true 4 and 5 hitters. Betts to me is the classic 3 guy, not a 4 or 5. So, power shortage, and Nelson Fox shortage need to be considered and addressed, if possible.
There's probably three of those players in the entire league.
You make some good points, but one I question is whether taking a 750 OPS for an entire season and applying it for a stretch of time toward the end of the season is a valid approach. If you look at Bogey for instance, his OPS in the second half has gone down in every year but one during the second half and perhaps even more than normal this year. He has suffered and injury, but his plate apprach has not been good in the second half either. He takes good strikes early and swings at balls out of the zone later. He only makes solid contact once in a while. Betts swing doesn't seem as flawed, but he takes a lot of first pitch strikes and swings at a lot of sliders down and away. That means to me he isn't seeing the ball very well, but I don't really understand why.
I do prefer to group the hitters who are making hard contact on a fairly regular basis in order to maximize run scoring. No one does it all of the time. Guys like Bogey isn't one of tthe hard contact hitters currently and neither is Betts regularly. Because of his speed and versatility I would still bat Betts 1st and then the group of hitters who are currently making solid contact sequentially after. I would go Beni, Nunez, Moreland , Devers, Vaz, Hanley, Davis and Bogey. Hanley seems to be responding to being moved down so I would keep him there for now.
The situation will change when JBJ gets back or when we face a lefty, but I would avoid using Holt and Young in the lineup unless forced to, preferring a bad L on L matchup to helplessness. Two days to go before things change for the better. More subs and a deeper bench.
A question: if your don't believe line-up slots make a significant difference, what the heck are we arguing about?
I enjoy arguing, for one thing. But, believe me, I am normally happy with almost any lineup, especially right now thanks to your "everybody is gravitating toward the OPS mean of .750" theory. In that context, almost any lineup should work.
I like talking about the idea of any given lineup mostly because it's pre-game stuff. I like that "comfortable slot" idea, but am not wedded to it. Your numbers and reminders about Devers minor league slots are good points. Plus, as I said, I'm happy if Farrell moves him right back up to the 5th or higher slot.
In the heat of the moment, I will admit, I was grasping at straws when the great Devers was looking a little too human--thus the comfort zone thesis. When my prediction--moving him back down--seemed to go right, I crowed about it. But I cannot emphasize too strongly the kid has great potential, has already delivered on much of it way sooner than we expected, and can bat anywhere. You are right about that.
@redsoxstats
Chris Young is hitting .193/.302/.277 against lefties this year. Bryce Brentz is hitting .300/.411/.611 against them for Pawtucket.
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