Home runs are nice, and they do, obviously, correlate positively to runs scored. However, OBP still has a higher correlation with scoring runs than hitting home runs does.
The Sox have the 5th best OBP in baseball. They are 26th in runs scored. It's an enigma, or bad luck, or randomness if you prefer, that the Sox haven't scored more runs.
The runs will come.
I hope that you are right. We will see.Originally Posted by Kimmi
I don't mean to be impolite, but "the runs will come" covers such a wide range of possibilities as to be almost meaningless.
So let's talk turkey. Last year the sox lead the american league in runs by 100. will the sox even lead the american league in runs this year, let alone by 100?
and please don't fall back on "well don't forget our pitching is better" because guess what? the yankees and orioles pitching is as good as or better than ours.
this team will be mediocre if it doesn't hit well and, more importantly, score runs, preferably as many as any other team in the american league.
I am not predicting the demise of the boston red sox, but am saying that the evidence is growing that the hitting is suspect when a lot of us and certainly yours truly were confident the hitting and scoring would be fine even without Ortiz this year. surprise, surprise, Moreland has been better than expected at 1b and benintendi has been about what we hoped for in LF with that sweet left side swing of his. it's stalwarts like ramirez and pedroia and even betts and bogaerts and bradley who have not stepped up. sandoval who lost 40 lbs and looked good in ST so far can't hit or field.
the baserunning if anything is worse than last year and you can forget small ball of any kind--this team lacks the skills to bunt, hit and run, steal, you name it. fielding right now also looks worse, to say nothing of the fact that too often our pitchers simply forget to cover 1b on grounders hit to the right side. i do think we have a swift and skilled outfield with one great arm, betts's, one erratic arm, JBJ's, and one decent arm in benintendi. JBJ has a very strong arm, but is accurate with maybe 1 of 3 throws, especially to home plate.
i am not saying the sox won't score runs, but am saying they have been a big disappointment so far and that they must score a whole lot more to stay up with the yankees and orioles.
Last edited by Maxbialystock; 04-30-2017 at 07:54 AM.
A very bleak picture you paint here Max. There were a few of us that really did think that this team's run production would take a step backward without someone with consistent power to replace Papi. We have lots of guys who can hit it is just a matter of how many hits will it take us to produce runs. When you say that this team lacks the skills to essentially do anything baseball related, sounds like you think we must suck. Although outside of watching Sale pitch, I don't see too much that excites me, i still think there will be some competent baseball played. Is the picture really as bleak as what you think it is? I sure hope not.
the runs will come??? how many is the question. last year the sox led the american league in runs by over 100. will they even lead the american league this year?
I ask because right now the yankees and orioles both have solid pitching and better hitting than the sox. plus let's not forget that this team does not have the baserunning, bunting, hit and run, or other skills needed to manufacture runs. pedroia trying to stretch that single into a double yesterday was a public spectacle, borderline clownish. the sox don't need to lead the league in dingers to score a lot, but they can't afford to be dead last as they are now. major power outage.
we also ain't going to win games on defense. heck, right now john henry needs to go public with $1000 bonuses for each time a pitcher successfully covers first base on a grounder hit to the right side because they sure as heck are not going to do it on their own. or he can fire farrell and get a manager who will get their attention on fundamentals.
In other words, this team, despite much better than expected pitching, badly needs to hit and especially score runs to win. given our--mine, anyway--offseason expectations, they are a real disappointment so far.
This team may have been severely overrated, I'm afraid.
It looks that way right now but it is very early. I was sure that the postseason was a shoo-in with our starting pitchers. I still feel that when Price returns we will be in front of the AL East pack. The hitting woes surprise me less. Ortiz was not replaced. I thought they wouldve made a run at Encarnacion. He was def affordable. The other worrisome development is the defense. The left side field is average at best where you need it the most. The best fielder, Pedey, is getting older. At least the pen looks decent and that allows for less Farrell forced pitching change errors to occur. The real issue just might be how improved the Yanks are in an already tough division. That's why I'm worried about just getting into the playoffs now.
Our pitching has been fine. But our offense, infield defense and fundamentals have not.
Before I take the time to respond to some of the other posts more specifically, you guys need to RELAX! It's been one month. Good teams have months in which they scuffle all the time.
Last year, the team was 10-16 in the month of June.
In 2013, the team was 15-15 in May.
In 2008 when we won 95 games, the team was 11-13 in July.
In 2007, the team was 13-14 in June.
The fact that it's the first month of the season makes the 'scuffling' seem a little more dire than it is, but all things considered, things are not that bad. If we win today, we'll finish the month at 13-11. If we lose, we finish at an even .500.
I have posted many times that I don't expect our offense to be as good as last year's offense, but I still think they will be one of the top 3 in the AL. They are getting runners on base at a pretty decent clip, so it really is a bit of a puzzle as to why they haven't scored more runs. No, I don't think they will lead the league this year after the slow start, but it wouldn't surprise me if they lead the league in runs scored from this point out.
Also, the improved is directly connected to the 'allowable' drop in offense. It's okay if we don't score as many runs as we did last year, because we shouldn't allow as many runs as we did last year.
While I don't count either the Yankees or the Orioles out, IMO, they are both playing over their heads right now.
I agree that they have been a disappointment so far this year. Or frustrating is probably a better word.
I refuse to panic over or even be concerned about what our team or any other team is doing on April 30th.
Et tu Bell?
Remember the dude (Davenport) who had us projected at 84 wins or something? Maybe he was on to something!
When you are in the top 5 with respect to the number of hits you have and in the bottom 5 with respect to the number of runs that you have scored with respect to both leagues, what would be a logical conclusion? It might tell someone that it looks as though that as good as our players look athletically, we lack run producers.
Since this thread is labeled hitting, I will confine myself to that topic. I have been disappointed by the season to date and had hoped for more with the guys we have. I find it difficult to play the pollyanna for this team as I don't see a clear way forward to be competitive.
True, we have Beni actually performing perhaps better than expected with in excess of a 320 average and on pace for between 15 and 20 HRs. Betts will hit and still has the ultra quick bat. Pedey is still a pro and I expect he will hit but perhaps with reduced power as he ages, Moreland is hitting better than i expected. Good signing by DD. Bogearts will hit but I don't expect a lot of power.
The problem I have is with the rest of the starters. Rameriz tends to be erratic and I postulate he missing Ortiz presence to keep his spirit up. Hope he can produce in the DH role and give us 150 games. JBJsaid he worked on his hitting this off season. What I see so far is he is not seeing the ball and cutting at ptches outisde the strike zone. He still has that long, looping swing designed to hit homers but he has to make contact to do that. His problem is he doesn't put the bat on the ball. Sandoval is a free swinger with some power when he makes contact. Again, he doesn't make enough contact to help the team. Hernandez does have plate discipline and would have a decent average but we wouldn't get the long ball a third baseman should provide. Leon appears to be back to his normal hitting which is not major league quality. Vazquez has been better but you wonder if he could keep it up.
What i see so far is a team that is a middle of the pack American League team in the runs scored area. We need to get JBJ going although I don't hold a lot of hope for him since he has not made improvements year to year. We need to decide on 3rd base. Preferably we need a 3rd baseman that can hit with power. We currently don't have one. our DH needs to produce regularly. Maybe bring Ortiz back in some capacity would help Rameriz. Our catchers need to hit their weight going forward. Even with those areas improved, we still do not have a lot of power bats.
Right now I see at best a team that is average in the RBI race in the American league. I don't think that is good enough to land us in the playoffs.
Kimmi, the way I look it, whether I'm optimistic or pessimistic doesn't really matter. That statement might end up looking stupid, hopefully.Et tu Bell?
Don't worry, I'm not going to end up going all Pumpsie.
I just have a feeling that somewhat unrealistic expectations were placed on this team. You take away David Ortiz and you leave a core of position players that's very young, aside from Pedroia. They may be feeling a lot of pressure.
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