A Realistic View at 2017 Part I

[Emp9]

I wouldn't expect much of an uptick in Owens velocity, if any. Velocity usually tops out at a young age, before pitchers even ever put it together. I'd more optimistic of his future if he can harness his control.

I agree that I'd be more optimistic if he developed better control and it would be more relevant going forward towards any success he could have. On the velocity though, I mean... 6-7, 24 yrs old, tops out at 94, something tells me he's not taking advantage of his frame and there may be still time/room for improvement. He has yet to put it together. Not saying he'd ever throw 100 mph or even 98, but could hit 96 consistently if he took advantage of his frame. Would you disagree? Maybe he still needs to fill-out more? Eventually he will... a little. Gain more strength in his legs? My man could stand to gain 30-40 lbs and still be "skinny".

[moonslav59]

soxprospects.com...

http://www.soxprospects.com/players/owens-henry.htm

Physical Description: Very tall, lanky with long limbs. Still has room for strength gains in legs and upper body, but will always be on the skinny side.

Mechanics: Works from the first-base side of the rubber. High three-quarters arm slot. Very rhythmic delivery with a high leg kick, but low energy delivery. Starts with his hands set at chest, drops hands and pulls back up before coming forward with solid momentum. Easy release and loose arm. Average arm speed. Very deceptive delivery; the ball comes out from behind his head and jumps on hitters due to the extension from his long limbs. Can struggle to repeat his mechanics from pitch-to pitch, leading to control issues. Reportedly made a slight mechanical adjustment involving a hinge at the waist entering spring training 2015.

Fastball: 88-91 mph. Can reach back for more when loose and hit 92-94 mph. Jumps on hitters. Hitters struggle to square the pitch up, generates a lot of weak contact. Shows late downward action. Average pitch that plays up due to deception. Below-average command, but solid-average control. Command comes and goes within outings.

Changeup: 76-79 mph. Potential plus-plus offering. Has steadily improved since he entered the organization. Great feel for the pitch. Same arm speed and look as his fastball. Shows late arm-side fade and drop. Can turn over with cut at times. Commands the pitch to both sides of the plate, inside and outside the zone. Comfortable throwing against righties and lefties and in any count. True out pitch that will miss bats at the big league level.

Curveball: Velocity varies. Average potential. Long, loose at lower velocities. Flashes deep break and tight rotation at higher velocities. Has thrown both a softer version 68-72 mph and harder version at 74-76 mph. Able to throw for strikes. Has committed to throwing the harder, more powerful version in 2015 spring training, potentially a very positive development.

Slider: 77-79 mph. Work in progress. Threw the pitch some during Hig School, but hadn't thrown it as a professional until 2015. Short, horizontal movement. Lacks tilt, but has potential with continued repetition and refinement. Has shown solid-average potential on occasion.

Career Notes: Originally committed to the University of Miami.

Summation: Profiles as a back end starter with a chance for more if he improves his fastball command and curveball. Development of curveball is key; relies heavily on fastball/changeup combination. Advanced feel for pitching. Will be able to withstand the rigors of starting at the big league level. Although somewhat goofy off the field, is able to flip the switch, and possesses a mature demeanor on mound. Floor of a back-end starter.

[moonslav59]

MLBTR....

The Red Sox continue to see less-than-ideal results from lefty Henry Owens, as Tim Britton of the Providence Journal writes. Once a highly regarded prospect, and still an important part of the organization’s rotation depth, Owens most recently coughed up four free passes in an inning of work. Though the 24-year-old got a head start on throwing over the offseason, in hopes of a smooth launch with his mechanics, he acknowledges that “it hasn’t carried over yet.” Manager John Farrell says it’s a continuation of a long-known issue. “It’s something we talked about before camp,” he said. “The improved command is a primary objective. Today it wasn’t there.”

[Emp9]

Right, his #1 problem is Command and Control from pitch to pitch. His CB & FB (even his Change, but that's OK by me because well, it's a Change) are typically below avg velocity. So I think it's fair to say his #2 problem is his velocity. Problem #3 is throwing a consistent CB. A recent article on SoxProspects said he was 6'-6" 220 lbs, but his Bio says 6'-7" 200 lbs, so I'm not sure what to believe. Brooks baseball covers MLB games only while SoxProspects takes into account all games pitched. If I'm reading things correctly, I think there's a slight uptick in Owen's velocity when pitching in MLB games compared to his MiLB averages. Which could mean he's trying to force things when called up. What MPH he tops out at doesn't concern me as much as his average MPH especially his FB. A starker contrast in velocity on his FB from his other pitches would of course be ideal. Any gains there within the next two years would be awesome. Of course Hugh2 could be right, this may not happen at all. I love the fact that he has a definite 'Out Pitch' regarding his Change-up. Command with an Out-Pitch could go a long way in the majors... so I'm still holding out hope for this kid. Good thing we barely need him right now.

[Nick]

Right, his #1 problem is Command and Control from pitch to pitch. His CB & FB (even his Change, but that's OK by me because well, it's a Change) are typically below avg velocity. So I think it's fair to say his #2 problem is his velocity. Problem #3 is throwing a consistent CB. A recent article on SoxProspects said he was 6'-6" 220 lbs, but his Bio says 6'-7" 200 lbs, so I'm not sure what to believe. Brooks baseball covers MLB games only while SoxProspects takes into account all games pitched. If I'm reading things correctly, I think there's a slight uptick in Owen's velocity when pitching in MLB games compared to his MiLB averages. Which could mean he's trying to force things when called up. What MPH he tops out at doesn't concern me as much as his average MPH especially his FB. A starker contrast in velocity on his FB from his other pitches would of course be ideal. Any gains there within the next two years would be awesome. Of course Hugh2 could be right, this may not happen at all. I love the fact that he has a definite 'Out Pitch' regarding his Change-up. Command with an Out-Pitch could go a long way in the majors... so I'm still holding out hope for this kid. Good thing we barely need him right now.

I read somewhere he has put on some added pounds. Probably not as much noticeable at 6-6.

There's really not much you can do other than to keep him around and hope something 'clicks'. I guess at some point he'll run out of options.

[Nick]

I'm a big fan of E Rod. But it's frustrating to see him throw 50+ pitches to get through 3 innings. He was going deep into many batters.

I never thought about pitch count twenty years ago. Anyone glued to that stat while watching the game? It's annoying but I do it all the time.

[moonslav59]

I'm hoping this is a breakout year for ERod. He's got all the talent in the world.

We could use a big boost from someone outside the big three. I like that we have 3 guys that all can provide a big boost (ERod, Wright & Pom), but my hope and expectations are highest for ERod.

[Emp9]

I never thought about pitch count twenty years ago. Anyone glued to that stat while watching the game? It's annoying but I do it all the time.

I guess I started paying attention to pitch counts back in 2003 or around there and rally increased when Youk got on the scene. Only not so much for our pitchers. Sox were REALLY wearing down opposing SPers during that era. It was a strategy that worked for a long time, over a decade. Still can versus certain teams that don't have a lights out BP.

[Emp9]

I'm hoping this is a breakout year for ERod. He's got all the talent in the world.

We could use a big boost from someone outside the big three. I like that we have 3 guys that all can provide a big boost (ERod, Wright & Pom), but my hope and expectations are highest for ERod.

ERod definetly has the best "stuff" out of the 3. I'm betting on Wright ( if shoulder is healthy) to be the most reliable though.

[Nick]

ERod definetly has the best "stuff" out of the 3. I'm betting on Wright ( if shoulder is healthy) to be the most reliable though.

He's someone you just want to keep around forever... a la Wakefield...

[moonslav59]

ERod definetly has the best "stuff" out of the 3. I'm betting on Wright ( if shoulder is healthy) to be the most reliable though.

I agree.

Assuming all 3 are 100% healthy....

I think Wright has the highest floor of all 3.

ERod has the highest ceiling.

[moonslav59]

Please support a great site: soxprospects.com.

I do!

http://news.soxprospects.com/2017/03...prospects.html



Here's an update...

http://news.soxprospects.com/2017/03...ches-fire.html

[mvp 78]

Please support a great site: soxprospects.com.

I do!

http://news.soxprospects.com/2017/03...prospects.html



Here's an update...

http://news.soxprospects.com/2017/03...ches-fire.html

Thanks for posting this. I'll donate during their June drive.

[moonslav59]

Thanks for posting this. I'll donate during their June drive.

It's amazing what they do with a $20,000 budget!

[harmony]

FanGraphs columnist Jeff Sullivan offers a strength-of-schedule analysis:

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/proje...s-of-schedule/