A Realistic View at 2017 Part I

[moonslav59]

As arb costs rise and extension talks begin with our core young players, it would really help if we could add some minimum cost players to replace our free agents - to- be:

after 2017:

Moreland >> Shaw (maybe Devers with Pablo moving to 1B/DH)

Young >> Swihart

Abad >> Scott, Owens, Johnson, Ysla, others

That's about $14M to cover option year recalculated luxury tax increases:

C Sale $6.5M to $11.5M
Kimbrel $10.5M to $12.0M
Total: $6.5M

Arb Raises:

Betts arb 1 of 3
Bogey $4.5M> arb 2 of 3
Pomeranz $4.45M > arb 3 of 3
Bradley $3.6M > arb 2 of 4
J Kelly $2.8M > arb 3 of 3
Thornburg $2.02M > arb 2 of 3
B Holt $1.95M > arb 2 of 3
Rob Ross $1.825M > arb 3 of 3
S Leon $1.3M < arb 2 of 3
C Smith > 1st of 3 arbs
ERod & Swihart> 1st of 4 arbs
Wright and Vazquez > 1st of 3 arbs

My guess is, we go over the luxury limit, even if we sign no new free agents.

After 2018 might be too hard to speculate, but we do know this:

Kimbrel ($12M), Pom (3rd arb), Kelly (3rd arb) and Ross (3rd arb) reach free agency. This might total close to $23M, which might pay for more arb raises and Sale's raise in option from $12.5M to $13.5M. There might be a little left over for a mid level free agent or go towards part of an extension, but I think either way, we'll be over the limit for a second year in a row.

After 2019, things become wild and crazy. We lose may lose these players to free agency:

$22.0M HanRam (Travis/Devers/Dalbec?)
$20.6M Porcello (Groome?)
$19.0M Sandoval (Devers/Dalbec/Hernandez?)
$13.5M C Sale
3rd arb Bogaerts
3rd arb Thornburg

WOW! Betts & JBJ on their final arb year too.

[cp176]

As arb costs rise and extension talks begin with our core young players, it would really help if we could add some minimum cost players to replace our free agents - to- be:

after 2017:

Moreland >> Shaw (maybe Devers with Pablo moving to 1B/DH)

Young >> Swihart

Abad >> Scott, Owens, Johnson, Ysla, others

That's about $14M to cover option year recalculated luxury tax increases:

C Sale $6.5M to $11.5M
Kimbrel $10.5M to $12.0M
Total: $6.5M

Arb Raises:

Betts arb 1 of 3
Bogey $4.5M> arb 2 of 3
Pomeranz $4.45M > arb 3 of 3
Bradley $3.6M > arb 2 of 4
J Kelly $2.8M > arb 3 of 3
Thornburg $2.02M > arb 2 of 3
B Holt $1.95M > arb 2 of 3
Rob Ross $1.825M > arb 3 of 3
S Leon $1.3M < arb 2 of 3
C Smith > 1st of 3 arbs
ERod & Swihart> 1st of 4 arbs
Wright and Vazquez > 1st of 3 arbs

My guess is, we go over the luxury limit, even if we sign no new free agents.

After 2018 might be too hard to speculate, but we do know this:

Kimbrel ($12M), Pom (3rd arb), Kelly (3rd arb) and Ross (3rd arb) reach free agency. This might total close to $23M, which might pay for more arb raises and Sale's raise in option from $12.5M to $13.5M. There might be a little left over for a mid level free agent or go towards part of an extension, but I think either way, we'll be over the limit for a second year in a row.

After 2019, things become wild and crazy. We lose may lose these players to free agency:

$22.0M HanRam (Travis/Devers/Dalbec?)
$20.6M Porcello (Groome?)
$19.0M Sandoval (Devers/Dalbec/Hernandez?)
$13.5M C Sale
3rd arb Bogaerts
3rd arb Thornburg

WOW! Betts & JBJ on their final arb year too.

I get what you are doing here and it is great information. The one thing missing is how many billions John Henry is worth. You might be worth a billion or so too, I don't know. If John Henry continues to really want to own this franchise, personally I won't worry at all about the size of our payroll. Before I start getting the stuff about the Red Sox budget (which no one here really knows much about)and what the ramifications are of going over the luxury tax, consider how much a multi billionaire can afford - if in fact that is what he is worth. He doesn't have to worry too much about paying his cable bill if you get my drift.

[Bellhorn04]

I have to agree with moonslav here. If you want an idea of what the team's budget is, you can be pretty sure it's very close to the tax threshold. If they had no concerns about the tax threshold they wouldn't have traded Buchholz away for nothing and they probably would have signed Encarnacion.

[Nick]

I get what you are doing here and it is great information. The one thing missing is how many billions John Henry is worth. You might be worth a billion or so too, I don't know. If John Henry continues to really want to own this franchise, personally I won't worry at all about the size of our payroll. Before I start getting the stuff about the Red Sox budget (which no one here really knows much about)and what the ramifications are of going over the luxury tax, consider how much a multi billionaire can afford - if in fact that is what he is worth. He doesn't have to worry too much about paying his cable bill if you get my drift.

Revenue $380M...40 man payroll $200M....I agree with you that money paid in penalty won't hurt Henry, but losing ability to draft players? That's why this all matters.

[cp176]

Revenue $380M...40 man payroll $200M....I agree with you that money paid in penalty won't hurt Henry, but losing ability to draft players? That's why this all matters.

I do agree with you with respect to the leverage to draft future players. That makes sense. The loss of revenue through the payment of salaries to a multi billionaire means 0. If this team has budget constraints it would seem that it could have something to do with not losing future drafting power. Being fiscally responsible with respect to salaries paid? Nope - not buying that one for one second.

[cp176]

I have to agree with moonslav here. If you want an idea of what the team's budget is, you can be pretty sure it's very close to the tax threshold. If they had no concerns about the tax threshold they wouldn't have traded Buchholz away for nothing and they probably would have signed Encarnacion.

I think that there might have been a few other concerns that were more important to the franchise when considering the resigning of Buchholz and potentially signing EE. Maybe they just didn't fit in well with the direction ownership wanted this team to go.

[moonslav59]

I get what you are doing here and it is great information. The one thing missing is how many billions John Henry is worth. You might be worth a billion or so too, I don't know. If John Henry continues to really want to own this franchise, personally I won't worry at all about the size of our payroll. Before I start getting the stuff about the Red Sox budget (which no one here really knows much about)and what the ramifications are of going over the luxury tax, consider how much a multi billionaire can afford - if in fact that is what he is worth. He doesn't have to worry too much about paying his cable bill if you get my drift.

I totally get that argument, and I don't disagree with it. If I was that rich, I wouldn't care about tax penalties on my toys (baseball team).

However, I think he views this as a business too, and he didn't get where he is today by spending frivolously. I can see wanting to rest the luxury tax from time to time to try and keep added expenses down, but I get the feeling this might be the last year we're under for a while.

I do think they avoid going $20M over, so they don't start losing picks and reducing slot money.

[Bellhorn04]

I think that there might have been a few other concerns that were more important to the franchise when considering the resigning of Buchholz and potentially signing EE. Maybe they just didn't fit in well with the direction ownership wanted this team to go.

Pretty hard to see how EE wouldn't fit.

[moonslav59]

I really think Sox management viewed HanRam and/or Pablo as the eventual replacement(s) for Papi when they signed them..

The signing of Moreland to at least play 1B vs RHPs somewhat supports that idea. Signing EE would pretty much force HanRam and Pablo to be our corner IF'ers until their or EE's time was up. Also, when we play in NL parks, HanRam or EE would have to sit.

Of course, with an unlimited budget, none of these factors would or should have prevented an EE signing instead of Moreland, but signing EE to multiple years would put us in danger of hitting the $20M over the threshold line or possible prevent us from extending one of our players for fear of hitting that penalty line next season.

[mvp 78]

Pretty hard to see how EE wouldn't fit.

They wanted a left handed bat damnit!

[cp176]

Pretty hard to see how EE wouldn't fit.

I have been playing a lot of golf with some guys from the Toronto area and they were not displeased to see him go. Words like lazy and selfish came up. If there is truth to it, then I get it. That isn't the type of player the Red Sox wanted to take a chance on. For clarification - not me saying it- just repeating what I was told by some Canadian fans.

[moonslav59]

They wanted a left handed bat damnit!

His L-R splits have been very close, so I'm not sure that was a major factor.

I think they did not want to spend large at DH. They may have thought 3-4 years was too long and would keep then from being able to extend someone.

I also think they like the idea of HanRam and maybe eventually Pablo at DH their last or last couple contract years.

[cp176]

I totally get that argument, and I don't disagree with it. If I was that rich, I wouldn't care about tax penalties on my toys (baseball team).

However, I think he views this as a business too, and he didn't get where he is today by spending frivolously. I can see wanting to rest the luxury tax from time to time to try and keep added expenses down, but I get the feeling this might be the last year we're under for a while.

I do think they avoid going $20M over, so they don't start losing picks and reducing slot money.

I get the concept of not going over the luxury tax limit because you don't want to lose potential draft picks. I will never understand how paying any of these guys the kind of money the free market seems to demand can conceivably be considered anything but frivolous. Only in America.

[Eddy Ballgame]

I have been playing a lot of golf with some guys from the Toronto area and they were not displeased to see him go. Words like lazy and selfish came up. If there is truth to it, then I get it. That isn't the type of player the Red Sox wanted to take a chance on. For clarification - not me saying it- just repeating what I was told by some Canadian fans.

I think Moreland's defense definitely played a huge factor, as well as that he supposedly has the right makeup to be someone who could thrive in Boston.

[cp176]

I think Moreland's defense definitely played a huge factor, as well as that he supposedly has the right makeup to be someone who could thrive in Boston.

I agree. When I use the expression "unlimited budget", I do understand that in most cases there is in fact a budget. Usually I use the expression to just get a little rise out of the folks who want to think that the owners of major franchises - the billionaires amongst us- have to play by normal rules. They don't. I think that they want to win and own successful franchises and it is obvious that most of them are willing to pay out hundreds of millions of dollars to get what they want.