A Realistic View at 2017 Part I

[moonslav59]

Don't forget Kimbrel has $13M club option after 2017 season. My feeling is that he's a DD guy and his option will be picked up, UNLESS SMITH, THORNBURG AND KELLY goes nuts in 2017.

At today's relief pitcher prices, Kimbrel's $13M option should be a "no brainer", unless he really sucks this year or get hurt badly.

Kimbrel's luxury tax raise will not be as significant as Sale's.

Kimbrel's lux# goes from $11.5M to $13M.

Sale's lux# goes from $6.5M to $12.5M in 2018 and $13.5M in 2019.

Together, it's $8M more in 2018.

Add the arb raises, and we'll see all of the $14M money saved by losing Young $6.5M, Moreland $5.5M & Abad $2M eaten up pretty quickly--and then some!

Hence the strong need to reset the tax rate this winter.

Trading HanRam and/or Pablo next winter may become an option.

[notin]

At today's relief pitcher prices, Kimbrel's $13M option should be a "no brainer", unless he really sucks this year or get hurt badly.

Kimbrel's luxury tax raise will not be as significant as Sale's.

Kimbrel's lux# goes from $11.5M to $13M.

Sale's lux# goes from $6.5M to $12.5M in 2018 and $13.5M in 2019.

Together, it's $8M more in 2018.

Add the arb raises, and we'll see all of the $14M money saved by losing Young $6.5M, Moreland $5.5M & Abad $2M eaten up pretty quickly--and then some!

Hence the strong need to reset the tax rate this winter.

Trading HanRam and/or Pablo next winter may become an option.

Not only is Kimbrel a no-brainer at that price, barring injury, but I'm not as quick to anoint Smith as any sort of heir apparent. He's coming off an injury and didn't have a lengthy record of success prior. Hembree is just as likely to impress next season...

[a700hitter]

It shows how much the market changed in a year that people are now referring to Kimbrel's contract as a bargain.

[moonslav59]

Not only is Kimbrel a no-brainer at that price, barring injury, but I'm not as quick to anoint Smith as any sort of heir apparent. He's coming off an injury and didn't have a lengthy record of success prior. Hembree is just as likely to impress next season...

I've always been very high on Hembree- maybe undeservedly so.

I agree on C Smith. He's no sure bet, even if he gets himself 100% healthy.

[Nick]

Trading HanRam and/or Pablo next winter may become an option.


Exactly...I'm just pointing out that someone MAY EMERGE during 2017. And THAT may allow Sox to trade off a piece or two to position themselves to sign current players as they become FA. It will become a cluster fuck eventually. Possibly winning a world championship along the way will keep us all fully engaged.

I also suspect that couple of players will receive ridiculous offers that Sox won't be able to match in three years. Winning in 2017/18 becomes critical.

[harmony]

Not only is Kimbrel a no-brainer at that price, barring injury, but I'm not as quick to anoint Smith as any sort of heir apparent. He's coming off an injury and didn't have a lengthy record of success prior. Hembree is just as likely to impress next season...

Last offseason the Red Sox and the Seattle Mariners acquired closers in Craig Kimbrel and Steve Cishek (the latter was a free agent who did not cost the Mariners a prospect package). Kimbrel retains his closer's role while Cishek lost his gig to rookie Edwin Diaz in August.

Kimbrel and Cishek posted these 2016 lines:

CK 57 G, 53 IP, 3.40 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 5.1 BB/9, 14.1 K/9, 135 ERA+, 0.9 bWAR, 1.2 fWAR
SC 62 G, 64 IP, 2.81 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 3.0 BB/9, 10.7 K/9, 144 ERA+, 1.6 bWAR, 0.9 fWAR

FanGraphs Depth Charts and Steamer project Kimbrel with 2017 WAR of 1.6 and 1.0, respectively, while projecting Cishek with 2017 WAR of 0.9 and 0.6. Diaz gets 2017 WAR projections of 1.8 and 1.2.

Kimbrel has a 2017 salary of $13 million with a $13 million team option, or $1 million buyout, for 2018. Cishek is owed $6 million in the final year of his contract with performance bonuses that start with 25 games finished. Diaz will earn the league minimum and has six years of team control.

[Nick]

Last offseason the Red Sox and the Seattle Mariners acquired closers in Craig Kimbrel and Steve Cishek (the latter was a free agent who did not cost the Mariners a prospect package). Kimbrel retains his closer's role while Cishek lost his gig to rookie Edwin Diaz in August.

Kimbrel and Cishek posted these 2016 lines:

CK 57 G, 53 IP, 3.40 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 5.1 BB/9, 14.1 K/9, 135 ERA+, 0.9 bWAR, 1.2 fWAR
SC 62 G, 64 IP, 2.81 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 3.0 BB/9, 10.7 K/9, 144 ERA+, 1.6 bWAR, 0.9 fWAR

FanGraphs Depth Charts and Steamer project Kimbrel with 2017 WAR of 1.6 and 1.0, respectively, while projecting Cishek with 2017 WAR of 0.9 and 0.6. Diaz gets 2017 WAR projections of 1.8 and 1.2.

Kimbrel has a 2017 salary of $13 million with a $13 million team option, or $1 million buyout, for 2018. Cishek is owed $6 million in the final year of his contract with performance bonuses that start with 25 games finished. Diaz will earn the league minimum and has six years of team control.

Thanks for the input......amazing how fans are closed mind to 'possibilities'.

[moonslav59]

Thanks for the input......amazing how fans are closed mind to 'possibilities'.

There were a lot of options the winter we traded 4 prospects for a RP'er making close to FA market money.

[notin]

There were a lot of options the winter we traded 4 prospects for a RP'er making close to FA market money.

Kimbrel was a Nike sneaker. No different than a dozen off-brands, but at multiple times the cost...

[jacksonianmarch]

Craig's 11mil does count as does Rusney's contract. You don't get out from under those contractual lux tax implications by outrighting someone.

[harmony]

Craig's 11mil does count as does Rusney's contract. You don't get out from under those contractual lux tax implications by outrighting someone.

Those salaries do not count against the luxury tax threshold because each player was outrighted off the 40-man roster after clearing waivers:

http://www.overthemonster.com/2016/6...s-trade-budget

[harmony]

A FanRag columnist predicts the Red Sox will sign third baseman Trevor Plouffe to a two-year, $14 million contract:

http://www.fanragsports.com/mlb/find...g-free-agents/

That would take up much of the space between the current payroll and the luxury tax threshold.

[moonslav59]

Craig's 11mil does count as does Rusney's contract. You don't get out from under those contractual lux tax implications by outrighting someone.

Only players on the 40 man roster count, unless you trade someone and pay part of their salary.

[moonslav59]

A FanRag columnist predicts the Red Sox will sign third baseman Trevor Plouffe to a two-year, $14 million contract:

http://www.fanragsports.com/mlb/find...g-free-agents/

That would take up much of the space between the current payroll and the luxury tax threshold.

I doubt we eat up that much flex spending room for Plouffe.

[moonslav59]

Kimbrel was a Nike sneaker. No different than a dozen off-brands, but at multiple times the cost...

They got the "best" available closer on paper at the time, but my argument was that we paid a hefty price twice: one in too many good prospects and two in "near FA market cost". The cost has gone up dramatically since then, but there a lot of options that winter.

Free agent signings (not all did so well, but neither did CK):
D O'Day $31M/4
R Madson $22M/3
T Clippard $12.25M/2
S Cishek $10M/2
T Cahill $4.25M/1
N Feliz $3.9M/1
J Broxton $7.5M/2
F Rodney $2M/1

Trades:
J Benoit for Enyrl de los Santos & Nelson Ward
K Rod for Javier Betancourt & Manny Pena
Pomeranz & Jose Torres for Yonder Alonso, M Rzepczynski & Jabari Blash
D storen for Ben Revere
K Giles for V Velasquez, B Oberholtzer, M Appel, H Arauz, T Eshelman
A Chapman fotr Rookie Davis, Eric Jagielo, Caleb Cotham & Tony Renda