I was dead set vs trading away Moncada and Kopech. We invested $60M on Moncada. Kopech was that kid that had a chance to break the stigma of not developing TORS internally.
Now there's a tremendous pressure on Groome and Devers to come through for the organization. At some point, one of these kids will have to show up as a star in mlb.
The title is most important. The Sox threw Hall of Famers into LF for half a century and brought home zero titles with them....Originally Posted by Kimmi
Why?
Despite our gutted farm, the Sox will have still have minor leaguers. And they were ALWAYS in the position where some top prospects would get promoted, dealt or flop. Now we just know who is on that second list.
Besides if Moncada works out, we can sign him bsck in 7 years or so when Chicago can no longer afford him....
We have over $54M coming off the books in the next two years:
$13.5M Buch '17
$13M Kimbrel (option year '18)
$6.5M Young '17
$5.5M Moreland '17
last arb (estimate):
$8.5M Pomernaz '18
$4M Kelly '18
$3M Ross '18
We can fill some gaps with one or two year deals next winter and just one year deals after 2018, so the books will be cleaned up for after 2019.
Maybe Swihart, Devers and Hernandez can replace Young & Moreland (and eventually HanRam/Pablo).
Maybe Owens, Johnson, Scott, Martin & Ysla and the short term signings can partially replace Buch, Pom, Kimbrel, Kelly & Ross.
The real moment of truth comes after 2019 and 2020, but if we have this $54M freed up plus the small luxury tax increases, we might be close to $60M by the end of 2018. Of course, some hefty arb raises (Betts, JBJ and others) will eat up a big chunk, but a lot should be rolled over.
After 2019, we will have between $80-90M coming off the books, and not all should need to be replaced. Ramirez $22M, Porcello $22.6M, Pablo $19M, Sale $13M, Bogaerts (~$arb), Holt ($arb) and Rutledge ($arb), but we'll need to replace or extend Sale, Porcello & Bogey. Devers and Travis (Hernandez/Chatham/Longhi/Chavis/Ockimey) can replace Ramirez 1B/DH & Pablo 3B/1B. Maybe Groome could make an impact somehow by then, but we should be able to extend Sale, Porcello & Bogey with the $85M plus what's left over after arb raises fro the $60M rolled over from the previous 2 years. A lot of the depends on how we replaced Kimbrel, but we may have enough money left over to squeeze out a decent closer from free agency.
After 2020, too many variables are at stake. (Probably several variables will play intoi 2018 as well.) We'll have Betts and JBJ off their last arb year along with Wright, Leon, Vaz and C Smith. That's the time we'll be wishing we had a strong farm with ML talent available.
The big problem is going to be from after 2020 to that 6th and 7th year, when Moncada and others come available.
What if we did not make the deal for Sale? Is it possible that we won anyway? We got a reliever to go along with Carson Smith returning. Kelly, Barnes, Hembree, Ross are all year older. If healthy, our starting five should have been decent. We also signed a decent 1B for 1 year. Sale's contract is very enticing I'll admit.
Don't get me wrong. I'm pretty excited for 2017. I really wanted our OF to stay in tact and got my wish.
Best scenario for me? win the next two world series and have Price opt out. Resign Sale and Porcello, Devers and Smith break in at corner infield spots and retain the killer B's. And it would be nice if Groome was ready for 2019 September call up.
Last edited by Nick; 12-11-2016 at 02:07 PM.
Assuming Price does not opt out, I don't think we'll be able to sign BOTH Sale and Porcello for 2020. It's difficult to project out that far but I'm hoping Groome in on track to be a top notch starter. (assuming DD hasn't traded him away, lol). E Rod will be in his 5th of 6th year for FA purposes.
Say we sign Sale.... our rotation will be Price, Sale, E Rod, Wright and Groome for 2020. I would like for Drew Pomeranz to be extended through 2020. I think he's on the verge of breaking out. Getting rid of Clay B will make that possible.
It's clear what DD's mo is. He prefers big, badass, starting pitchers. DD likes both E Rod and Pomeranz and in the end, it matters little what YOU (all of us part time GMs) think.
Last edited by Nick; 12-11-2016 at 02:27 PM.
Assuming Price does not opt out, I don't think we'll be able to sign BOTH Sale and Porcello for 2020.
We could probably skimp and save and sign two out of Sale, Porcello and Bogey. Considering they might be making close to $50M combined that last year, we may only have to come up with $30-40M extra per year. As I showed before, if we don't replace all the 2017 and 2018 salaries with long term deals.
Why borrow trouble? Embrace the team we have now and deal with the aftermath when it's gone. It's DD's job to worry about the future, not ours.
If history tells us anything, the path to redeption for any bad baseball team is marked with a deep rotation of durable starters, a world class defense in both infield and outfield, a lineup that can generate runs in more than one way, a bullpen that won't steal defeat from the jaws of victory, and a top end catcher to hold the whole package together. These are the conditions by which victory is achieved, anything that does not accomplish these objectives is a waste of resources.
Exactly. We have a team full of young stars in their primes or approaching their primes. Why are people looking forward with angst to 2020 and beyond. I just can't grasp that mentality.
The King of TalkSox has Spoken.
Of course. It's usually the case that the team that gets the free agent is the one that pays the most.
But you can't really compare what Theo has done with the Cubs to what Dombrowski has done so far with the Red Sox. It's not even close, for several reasons.
I do blame Henry as well. I have said more than once that he tends to panic and overreact. My feeling is that Henry hired Dombrowski with the directive to get this team back to the playoffs. I'm not sure that Henry necessarily created or promoted the shift in philosophy, but he was willing to allow Dombrowski free reign to get the job done.
I have also said more than once that he should have allowed Ben to see his long term plan come to fruition. I am 99% confident that we would have made the playoffs in 2016 with Ben still at the helm.
Harmony, you do seem a little obsessed with Clay.
Not that there's anything wrong with that.
The title is important. Unfortunately, selling the farm does not guarantee anything.
And going exclusively with your farm never results in winning anything.
The King of TalkSox has Spoken.
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