A Realistic View at 2017 Part I

[moonslav59]

We can't look that far ahead, but we do know that not having all these promising prospects and adding a few more players that will require expensive contracts to keep around once their contracts expire is going to make staying a good to great team beyond 3-4 years is going to be very difficult or very expensive for Henry.

Let's try to look at the next few years, in terms of who we'll need to replace and how much money will be coming off the books:

2018 $197M Limit: We lose Buch $13.5M, Young $6.5M, Moreland $5.5M $ Abad ~$2.0M (Total: $27.5M)
-- We may be able to fill next year's needs from within (Moreland>Travis, Young>Swihart and Buch> Owens or Johnson), but we could also just sign one year contracts to fill the gaps and carry over the $27M savings to the next year. We will also have arb raises to account for.
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2019 $206M Limitassuming we keep Sale & HanRam on options) We lose Kimbrel ($13M), Pomeranz, Kelly, Ross (CK + all arbs: estimate $25M)

-- Replacing Kimbrel could be costly. Maybe Thornburg, Smith or Kelly will be capable and ready to be a closer. We'll still have 5 starters on the books, so maybe we can get by without replacing Pom in kind. Again, arb raises will eat up some of the available money. One year contracts can hold us over for next year's must year for extending Bogey and replacing Porcello and others. I'm not sure any farm products will help this year.
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2020 $208M Limit: We lose Porcello ($20.6M), Ramirez ($22M), Sale ($13.5M), Sandoval option ($17M or $5M option), Bogaerts (last arb), Thornburg, Holt, Rutledge, Workman (Total: estimate $105M-$5M buyout=$65M)

-- This when the reckoning really begins. It's hard to project this far out, but I think we can keep Bogey and Porcello or replace them with high cost FAs and still be under the limit, assuming we haven't signed any big FAs from the previous 1-2 years. Maybe Groome will be ready by this time, but expecting him to replace Porcello is a lot to ask.

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2021 $210M Limit: We lose Betts, JBJ, Wright, Smith, Vazquez &Leon (Total estimate: $55-70M)

-- Too far away to project, but here is when having top prospects ready for the bigs would have helped out.

[moonslav59]

You seem to be right that the players didn't get much. I wonder how the owners pulled that off? Maybe they produced some numbers showing that revenues were going to level off or something.

The players could have gotten a 26 man roster at least.

[Fan_since_Boggs]

Moonslav, based on the projected budget for future years, do you think the Red Sox will have the resources to sign someone like Manny Machado after the 2018 season?

I'm selecting Machado because there is a good chance (now that Moncada is gone) that the Red Sox will need a 3b in a few years. Devers could always play 1b and it is still a little early to know what he might become. I don't want the Yankees to sign Harper AND Machado; I would like to see the Red Sox go hard after one of them.

[moonslav59]

Moonslav, based on the projected budget for future years, do you think the Red Sox will have the resources to sign someone like Manny Machado after the 2018 season?

I'm selecting Machado because there is a good chance (now that Moncada is gone) that the Red Sox will need a 3b in a few years. Devers could always play 1b and it is still a little early to know what he might become. I don't want the Yankees to sign Harper AND Machado; I would like to see the Red Sox go hard after one of them.

Yes, I think we can, if we don't sign anyone else to a significant contract and for more than one year. The problem might be that his contract could keep us from extending Bogey, Betts or JBJ or replacing Kimbrel, HanRam or Porcello in kind, when their time comes up.

I think we'll know more about Devers by next winter and choose accordingly.

Machado would be a great addition, and Devers could move to 1B.

[Nick]

We can't look that far ahead, but we do know that not having all these promising prospects and adding a few more players that will require expensive contracts to keep around once their contracts expire is going to make staying a good to great team beyond 3-4 years is going to be very difficult or very expensive for Henry.

Let's try to look at the next few years, in terms of who we'll need to replace and how much money will be coming off the books:

2018 $197M Limit: We lose Buch $13.5M, Young $6.5M, Moreland $5.5M $ Abad ~$2.0M (Total: $27.5M)
-- We may be able to fill next year's needs from within (Moreland>Travis, Young>Swihart and Buch> Owens or Johnson), but we could also just sign one year contracts to fill the gaps and carry over the $27M savings to the next year. We will also have arb raises to account for.
______________________________________________

2019 $206M Limitassuming we keep Sale & HanRam on options) We lose Kimbrel ($13M), Pomeranz, Kelly, Ross (CK + all arbs: estimate $25M)

-- Replacing Kimbrel could be costly. Maybe Thornburg, Smith or Kelly will be capable and ready to be a closer. We'll still have 5 starters on the books, so maybe we can get by without replacing Pom in kind. Again, arb raises will eat up some of the available money. One year contracts can hold us over for next year's must year for extending Bogey and replacing Porcello and others. I'm not sure any farm products will help this year.
_________________________________________

2020 $208M Limit: We lose Porcello ($20.6M), Sandoval option ($17M or $5M option), Bogaerts (last arb), Thornburg, Holt, Rutledge, Workman (Total: estimate $70M-$5M buyout=$65M)

-- This when the reckoning really begins. It's hard to project this far out, but I think we can keep Bogey and Porcello or replace them with high cost FAs and still be under the limit, assuming we haven't signed any big FAs from the previous 1-2 years. Maybe Groome will be ready by this time, but expecting him to replace Porcello is a lot to ask.

__________________________________________________ __

2021 $210M Limit: We lose Betts, JBJ, Wright, Smith, Vazquez &Leon (Total estimate: $55-70M)

-- Too far away to project, but here is when having top prospects ready for the bigs would have helped out.

I think you are missing two big FA after 2019.....along with Porcello, Sale and Hanley will be gone. It will cost us $5M to say good bye to Pablo. That means $40M in savings (Hanley/Pablo) to replace Porcello/Sale/Xander. ($70M if Price opted out year earlier).

Starters
Price 17 18 19 20 21 22 (unless he opts out after 2018, we should be hoping for this?)
Sale 17 18 19
Porcello 17 18 19
E Rod 17 18 19 20 21
Wright 17 18 19 20
Pom 17 18

Hanley 17 18 19
Xander 17 18 19
Betts 17 18 19 20
Bradley 17 18 19 20
Beni 17 18 19 20 21 22
Pedy 17 18 19 20 21
Swihart 17 18 19 20 21
Vazquez 17 18 19 20
Leon 17 18 19 20

say

Travis 1B 18 19 20 21 22 23
Devers 3B 19 20 21 22 23 24

It would be nice if both Devers and Travis would be ready for 2018 season. Jason Groome perhaps can help the Sox by 2020 season when Porcello/Sale reach free agency. Can Dalbec and Chatam arrive by 2020 (if Xander goes elsewhere)?

We just don't have much coming off the books. Anyone still wanting to trade E Rod? You're fucking nuts. I would also prioritize Porcello and Sale before Xander. I rather have pitching than a SS wanting to make $30M. I also rather keep my OF in tact.

More I think about it, there's no reason to get rid of any of our catchers. Swihart can learn to play multiple positions, C, LF, 1B, 3B DH.

Just having a chance to get to the playoffs and doing some damage once we're in it, FOR NEXT 3 YEARS, we have to give credit to DD.
I can see us being competitive for 2020 if couple of kids come through.

[Nick]

Yes, I think we can, if we don't sign anyone else to a significant contract and for more than one year. The problem might be that his contract could keep us from extending Bogey, Betts or JBJ or replacing Kimbrel, HanRam or Porcello in kind, when their time comes up.

I think we'll know more about Devers by next winter and choose accordingly.

Machado would be a great addition, and Devers could move to 1B.

If Price opts out then money maybe there. Otherwise, I just don't see it. Why would we spend that much money with pending FA looming at SS, CF, RF and starting pitching?

Best we can hope for maybe for Travis/Devers to come through and give us 6 years of control each at corner infield positions. This is why we also need to get rid of Clay B before his entire value gets destroyed by injury or bad start in 2017. Take the money off the table and put it in your pocket. It may not be full $13.5M, but do it.

Price, Porcello and Sale have shown if nothing else to be durable pitchers;

[moonslav59]

I think you are missing two big FA after 2019.....along with Porcello, Sale and Hanley will be gone. It will cost us $5M to say good bye to Pablo.

Thanks. I went back and corrected. We could have savings from earlier years to cover part or keeping or replacing them, if we don't get locked into any long deals.

[moonslav59]

Word is the CWS offered to trade Quintana to the Astros for...
Joe Musgrove #86 before the season
Frances Martes #26
Kyle Tucker #50

Wonder if we could have gotten him for the offer we gave up for Sale.

[moonslav59]

On the Sale trade:

Big Three Sports:

I had Moncada firmly at the top of the list, and even his less-than-stellar 20 major league plate appearances with the Red Sox wasn’t going to change that. His swing is one of the most polished I’ve ever seen in a 21 year old. If it was just Moncada and a few wild cards (Basabe and Diaz), I think I would’ve had a tougher time picking the winner in my next heading. I can’t get past the fact that either, but likely both of these prospects will have a major impact on the White Sox organization. That is different than seeing this as an all out bet on Moncada – which I would also be in favor of. Two strong lottery tickets is always better than one. I’m a firm believer that the future value of Moncada alone will far exceed the next three years of Chris Sale. The rest is gravy.

[cp176]

Hey - I'm already past the potential effect of this trade. I'm pretty excited by the fact that we got Sale but I do want to watch to see if Moncada develops the way most scouts think that he might. I'll never regret the fact that the trade was made regardless but I can't help but think that this kid has the potential to be a future great. A lot of negative comments were made here after seeing this kid swing and miss curve balls over the course of 20 at bats. Comparing his progress to that of Benintendi's was also a bit unfair. I'll say once more that as much as I like Benintendi, guessing at what he might do in the future compared to Moncada is unfair. Potentially!!! A player with Moncada's abilities comes along once in a generation - see Mike Trout. Before I take a beatdown, let me say again, great trade for us - no hindsight from me. Espinoza who?

[Fan_since_Boggs]

On the Sale trade:

Big Three Sports:

I had Moncada firmly at the top of the list, and even his less-than-stellar 20 major league plate appearances with the Red Sox wasn’t going to change that. His swing is one of the most polished I’ve ever seen in a 21 year old. If it was just Moncada and a few wild cards (Basabe and Diaz), I think I would’ve had a tougher time picking the winner in my next heading. I can’t get past the fact that either, but likely both of these prospects will have a major impact on the White Sox organization. That is different than seeing this as an all out bet on Moncada – which I would also be in favor of. Two strong lottery tickets is always better than one. I’m a firm believer that the future value of Moncada alone will far exceed the next three years of Chris Sale. The rest is gravy.

I agree with this analysis. This was pretty much Dave Cameron's point too: the Red Sox gave up too much for Sale--Cameron wouldn't have made the trade.

Dombrowski is making the media rounds going over how the two deals came together as if he has some special talent for such things. What a joke. In both cases, the deals were completed because Dombrowski overpaid. He did the same thing for Kimbrel. Anyone can make deals like this if you want to completely unload and decimate your farm system, which is what Dombrowski has done. If he didn't inherit a top farm system, Sale would still be on the White Sox. We kept hearing that Dombrowski is very shrewd when it comes to making deals, but I haven't seen evidence of it. In each trade, he is either getting fair value back or he is overpaying. What is so shrewd about that?

Trading nothing for A.Chapman was a shrewd deal, the one Cashman made last offseason.

[jacksonianmarch]

if the Sale deal delivers a title to Boston, then it doesn't matter if Moncada becomes a perennial MVP candidate. There is a good chance The CWS package delivers more WAR than Sale will in a six uniform. But if a pennant gets raised on the back of Chris Sale, then nobody will care

[Bellhorn04]

I agree with this analysis. This was pretty much Dave Cameron's point too: the Red Sox gave up too much for Sale--Cameron wouldn't have made the trade.

Dombrowski is making the media rounds going over how the two deals came together as if he has some special talent for such things. What a joke. In both cases, the deals were completed because Dombrowski overpaid. He did the same thing for Kimbrel. Anyone can make deals like this if you want to completely unload and decimate your farm system, which is what Dombrowski has done. If he didn't inherit a top farm system, Sale would still be on the White Sox. We kept hearing that Dombrowski is very shrewd when it comes to making deals, but I haven't seen evidence of it. In each trade, he is either getting fair value back or he is overpaying. What is so shrewd about that?

Trading nothing for A.Chapman was a shrewd deal, the one Cashman made last offseason.

The Chapman trade is not a good comparison point.

Dombrowski's trade of 2 months of Cespedes for Michael Fulmer looks pretty shrewd, doesn't it?

[Hugh2]

People need to get over the fact that the prospect package could return more value to Chicago. Of course it does!!!! That's how trades work.
You would not invest $10 in the stock market to MAYBE get $10 back in the future. There is an element of risk, so potential future value must be higher to make a trade even.


Even if you knew with 100% certainty Sale would give you 20 WAR and Moncada would give 30 WAR (money aside) even then that WAR today is worth more, think of the same concept as TVM.

Still, despite all that, I hated the Pom Pom trade and always will. But the Kimbrel, Sale trades are justifiable and make sense. I think I like the Thornburg trade too.

[Kimmi]

I agree with this analysis. This was pretty much Dave Cameron's point too: the Red Sox gave up too much for Sale--Cameron wouldn't have made the trade.

Dombrowski is making the media rounds going over how the two deals came together as if he has some special talent for such things. What a joke. In both cases, the deals were completed because Dombrowski overpaid. He did the same thing for Kimbrel. Anyone can make deals like this if you want to completely unload and decimate your farm system, which is what Dombrowski has done. If he didn't inherit a top farm system, Sale would still be on the White Sox. We kept hearing that Dombrowski is very shrewd when it comes to making deals, but I haven't seen evidence of it. In each trade, he is either getting fair value back or he is overpaying. What is so shrewd about that?

Trading nothing for A.Chapman was a shrewd deal, the one Cashman made last offseason.

Thank you for this post.

I said the same thing last offseason after we got Price and Kimbrel. Dombrowski overpaid the next higher offer for Price by $30 million. Geez, I can do that.

Dombrowski is a smart baseball guy, and I'm not trying to take that away from him. But as far as him being some awesome GM because he gets the players that he targets, not so much. Honestly, I could do that if I had no regard to cost or to the future of this franchise. As I have said many times, he has only been able to do what he has done because of the farm and the team that Theo and Ben left him.

I'm not nearly as impressed as most.