I think this thread might be the worst in 10 years. It's early January. They have a bunch of pitchers who (admit it) you don't know well but who are well-respected by many in the game (not as #1s but as good young arms). We don't know if they are done. Not a single pitch has been thrown.
This strikes me as another thread intended to just vent rather than provide anything substantive that can't be provided in one of the other gazillion threads on this board. But that's just me...
but going into the season Lester, Beckett and Buchholz were legitimately considered to be a 1,2,3.Originally Posted by Palodios
The King of TalkSox has Spoken.
I don't want to speak for iortiz, but I thought the purpose of this thread was to compare this year's rotation to the rotations of past seasons at the beginning of those seasons, not to compare the results. There hasn't been a staff that I can remember in recent years that didn't have a # 1 and 2 going into the season. Some years the staff blew up, but they looked better on paper going into the start of the season.
Last edited by a700hitter; 01-03-2015 at 10:35 PM.
The King of TalkSox has Spoken.
Who was the #1 going into 2013?
Lester? He had a 4.82 ERA in 2012. Buchholz? 4.52. Lackey was coming off an injury, and you're certainly not going to say Doubront.
If we are looking to base #1-ness off of last year's performances then I'm going to go with Porcello (3.43 with 200+ IP) and say they have a better #1 than the 2013 Sox did.
True. The 2013 staff looked atrocious going into the season which is why they were picked by many to finish 4 the that year. But you would have to take Lester even at that juncture over anyone currently on the roster.
The King of TalkSox has Spoken.
So when people mention the 2011 debacle, you dismiss that by saying it was a collapse, then when the 2012 rotation is brought your rebuttal is "yeah but they had no expectations". And you have no answer at all for the 2006 rotation even thought that falls within the 10 year time span you set in the OP.
Why do you keep moving the goalposts? Are you really that hellbent on demonizing Cherington and the rest of this team's management? Still?
Demonize? Yes, they are all godless jackals! They must be stopped! I will start looking for wooden spikes etc. On eBay.
Last edited by a700hitter; 01-03-2015 at 11:16 PM.
The King of TalkSox has Spoken.
I actually didn't think the 2013 rotation looked atrocious. I think the problem is that some people feel the need to have just the right combination of elements before they have any faith in the team or in the front office's ability to judge it's own talent. Those elements tend to be something like:
1) players produced last year;
2) players have a history of producing;
3) players are widely regarded as 'elite' talents (high draft pick, previous all-star, etc.,)
4) players are known to fans.
It is pretty rare when all of those things line up and is even more rare when all line up and the season plays out accordingly. I read people acting as if Rick Porcello and Wade Miley are complete unknown entities who've never faced major league batters before. Licking their chops? I don't think so--these are legitimate MLB pitchers who tend to get a majority of their opponents out. They aren't hall of famers but I wouldn't be shocked if either had a really good year.
I understand iortiz's point, I just think it is boring conversation that happens when you've run out of things to say. Yes, it's not the best rotation on paper that the Sox have had the last 10 years. Beyond that statement is there much point in evaluating where this rotation ranks on paper? Hell, it would be more compelling to look at their projections (those exist and are cited frequently on other boards) and previous numbers. That would be a good discussion. It would be great if iortiz would pull out some common set of projections for each of the previous 10 years and make a compelling case that this is the worst rotation by that measure. Without that grounding in actual performance it strikes me as a beauty contest that favors ineffective free agent signings of known entities (see #s 2 and 4 above) over attempts to get guys who might be less known but ascending.
Last edited by example1; 01-03-2015 at 11:33 PM.
I guess that it is just a slow news day, and there isn't much to discuss.
The King of TalkSox has Spoken.
Prior to 2013, you definitely had the makings of a bad rotation. That being said, you still had players in their prime coming off bad seasons. Lester was an ace right up until a bad 2012. Buccholz was great when he pitched, until a bad 2012. Lackey was hurt. And the fact that three underachieving guys all out in ridiculous performances makes the likelihood that it happens again really low. Let's take a quick look at how things differ...
1. Your 1 is Porcello, a kid on the rise. He's not an ace, mostly because he relies on contact pretty regularly, but with your offense, he's probably a lock to win 15 games. So even though he's not a prototypical shutdown ace, he's not a bad headliner.
2. This is where it gets messy. Your 2 is probably Wade Miley. Miley is a guy who gives up a lot of home runs. He's durable, but last yr, pitched like a 4-5. His rookie year was excellent, but he's slowly dropped off since then. He will give you innings, but his upside is pretty limited.
3. Masterson- he's had two solid seasons, a few seasons of mediocrity and the worst season of any pitcher in the AL last year. He's has injuries all over his body and his stuff declined. It's harder to return from a bad stretch when your stuff suffers (Ask CC).
4. Buccholz- see Masterson
5. Kelly- couldn't stay healthy in STL, not likely to stay healthy in Boston. Stuff is there, strikeouts are Dow, walks are up. He has the best shot to take the next step because he has such good stuff, but his mix of poor health and poor control makes me think he's ticketed to the pen in the future
So let's just say that your #1 is a contact pitcher. And how many people were saying Chien Ming Wang was an ace for us a few years back? Your number two is a durable flyball pitcher coming to Fenway. Your numbers 3 and 4 have seen injuries derail a promising career AND most importantly, their stuff has fallen back significantly. And your #5 is an injury prone wild pitcher who still has good stuff. This rotation has the upside to be okay and the downside of being the worst in the AL
Now by the end of the season, you're gonna have another addition, though. My guess is Henry Owens comes up in June and pitches well.
I think this rotation is built for additions. The rotation was built with the guise of contention. Should they all rediscover lost years, then they roll with it. Should they shit the bed, it can be dismantled quickly without big commitments. Should the sox hit the bottom of the division comes June/July, there are no current starters off limits. Porcello is a prime trade candidate since he isn't signing prior to FA. Miley is still cheap. Buccholz and Masterson are on short term deals.
Last edited by jacksonianmarch; 01-04-2015 at 07:54 AM.
Miley gave up so many homeruns because he was pitching in AZ. His road numbers were fine. Fenway is a doubles park. He'll be good.
Also, Miley was 5th in the MLB in ground ball % in 2013. Pretty good for a "fly ball" pitcher.
Miley had one of the higher GB/FB ratios in the Majors last year and had a huge 51.1% groundball rate. Can you please do SOME research before posting Jacko? It's hard to take anything you say seriously.
We miss you Mike.
Also, you were the chief proponent of the "Lester isn't an ace" camp, but now he was an ace up to 2012? Which is it? Be consistent.
We miss you Mike.
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