It's impossible for them to pitch the way they did just two years ago? It's not like they've had 5 straight seasons of suckitude.Originally Posted by Elktonnick
It's impossible for them to pitch the way they did just two years ago? It's not like they've had 5 straight seasons of suckitude.
Lester has gone downhill steadily in my view. I believe it is due to the Red Sox's pitching philosophy. I don't care for the over use of the cutter. I suscribe to the view that the cutter over time accelerates arm weakness. Beckett inculcated this rotation with the cutter. They were throwing it too much. I don't believe the decline was just due to Valentine but rather the underlying pitching philosophy.
We'll see if Lester bounces back. I hope he does. but I am not holding my breath.
There's absolutely zero proof to back this up. Not only are there a number of successful starting pitchers who use the cutter as their main out pitch (Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee among them) but there's zero indication that Lester's velocity or stuff is declining. His 92.6 MPH fastball velocity from last year is right around his career average.
Made-up baloney.
We miss you Mike.
Lester is down 1.5mph off his best seasons. He was 92.0mph last yr per fangraphs and his average in 09-10 was 93.5. Not a big drop, but it is more than just a little drop. His problem isnt stuff, though, it's location
Hal sucks
I think that was obvious when Sanchez name was mentioned as a possible 100M pitcher. I think it makes it even more likely they avoid the main part of the secondary pitching market and look at guys like Harden, Braden, Hernadez, and maybe even a Blanton that maybe settle for one year deals to rebuild value and have some measurement of upside.Some general managers believe the secondary starting pitching options are incredibly overpriced, Olney reports
It's the same issues he had when he first came up. It's why I'm hopeful Farrell can get him back on track.
His first really good season was 2008, where he averaged just a tick over 92 MPH, and less than his AFV last year or 2011. You said it yourself, velocity is not the problem, and there's no identifiable trend in the ways of velocity loss.
We miss you Mike.
I agree that this has been a 2 year decline. People don't remember that after 2011, Lester and others were talking about him having a bounce back season in 2012. He was not pleased with his 2011. This is why 2012's debacle is so concerning. This is two years in a row where we are talking about a Lester bounce back. 2011's numbers look fine without context and we would kill for him to get back to that level, but it doesn't change the fact that his stuff and game has been slipping for 2 seasons. Last year was more than a slip. It was a cliff.
The King of TalkSox has Spoken.
Lester's 2011 numbers: 3.47 ERA,191.2 IP 1.26 WHIP, 182 K. He had a bad month, but his overall numbers were very, very good.
Reading through some of these posts makes me wanna hit my head against the wall repeatedly.
We miss you Mike.
Lester did not take the reins as the number 1 rotation guy and run with it. He simply never was the stopper that you would expect a 1 to be. He did not have really solid (I am doing what a 1 does) performances especially when the Sox really needed them. However he did everything else and I would argue that if Beckett had been a solid 1 again, you would have taken Lester warts and all in 2011 as the 2. Unfortunately for Lester, he was the guy everybody expected to step up in 2011 and it didn't happen.
As for 2012, his problem has been deteriorating mechanics. Unfortunately the Sox seemed to allow them to deteriorate to a point where you could no longer even see from the typical behind the pitcher view that the ball had any chance of even getting close to the plate. For a few games right in the middle of the worst of it, walks went nuts, he would finally be stuck where most pitchers get when that happens, eventually grooving the ball and having some rocket come back the other way.
He gathered himself to some extent but you could tell just watching him that he was expending tremendous amounts of concentration to get it done. Is it any wonder that he was less distracted by ump calls during the later stretch of the season. IMO it took everything he had to pitch even just as well as he did later in the season.
I don't know if they are going to have to rebuild his motion from scratch....hope not. I for one continue to believe he worked his ass off just to pitch as well as he did down the stretch. However I think the chances of going through a whole season like that are slim and none. Guy was probably exhausted after every start.
I've heard this before, and it really bothers me. They needed him EVERY game. The only games where he pitched poorly were games that the Red Sox were well ahead of the playoff race.
The 2011 Red Sox got to an awful start, and were far below .500? Jon Lester had a 2.52 ERA in April.
When the team was pulling its self together, he struggled a bit, but managed to pull a 4-1 record in May
And what about when the team needed to pick up ground on its AL East foes? 2.31, 1.56, 2.78 ERAs in June, July, August.
And what about the very last game of his season when a must-win game against Baltimore? 6 innings, 2 runs. Can you really complain about that?
I figure Lester and Buccholz will come back this year, with Farrell back. If they don't, the Sox won't have a prayer to make the playoffs. But they will need a replacement for Beckett, and that has to be Lackey, right now. They are safer with Lackey as the 5th starter his 1st year back from surgery, following Doubront, and sign a #3 starter from the likes of Haren, Jackson, etc. I'd also like to see Morales in the picture as a starter, since he showed more than any of them last year before his arm gave out.
Lester pitched 180 innings in 2011...far short of the expectations for a 1. Theo often rescued both Lester and Beckett in 2011 by pulling them out of games early enough to save their stats. I am sure Tito did it cause he thought that was the best way to win games and manage his pitchers but he had had a low tolerance for problem innings. About one problem inning is all you got from Tito. Funny that people want to make a case for Lester AND Beckett's 2011 when their manager (the same guy the team eventually gutted) saved both of their asses. So we can all look back now and glory in their gaudy stats built over short innings in both cases. At least Beckett went 193 innings, closer to what you would expect but still short for a rotation 1.
What is the absolute distinction everybody and I mean everybody points to that distinguishes a rotation 1....innings pitched. Neither guy did the job in 2011 but at the end of the day, nobody but nobody thought Lester filled the bill better than Beckett in 2011 even though we all expected that he would. Lester barely crawled into enough innings for a 2 but was not even close for a 1.
You don't have your facts straight.
Your right...he pitched 191...same argument...different number
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