Theo - Best GM in Baseball?

[TheKilo]

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news?slug=jp-theo112707&prov=yhoo&type=lgns


What, you think the Red Sox are here because of money? Oh, no. They can afford Manny Ramirez at $20 million a season and make mistakes like J.D. Drew at $15 million a pop because of their incredible revenue streams, but this group – the Jonathan Papelbon-Dustin Pedroia-Kevin Youkilis-Jon Lester-Jacoby Ellsbury-Clay Buchholz core – does not materialize like rabbit from hat.

"You start planning for a season three or four years in advance," Epstein said. "That was the case this time. The decisions you make over the course of a long period effect the upcoming season. We're always thinking about this one."


However much the thought of a Santana-Josh Beckett-Daisuke Matsuzaka-Schilling-Buchholz/Lester rotation appeals to him – the best rotation since Palmer-Cuellar-McNally-Dobson? – Epstein won't sacrifice Boston's organizational principles.

That said, he's not a hard-liner like Yankees GM Brian Cashman appears to be with his Joba Chamberlain-Phil Hughes-Ian Kennedy troika, either.

"There are no untouchables," Epstein said. "If there's an opportunity to get better, we'll do it. We believe in those guys. Their value to us is legitimate. We're not eager to get rid of them."


With their success, the Red Sox could fall into the same trap the Yankees did, placing so much emphasis on the present that the future, even a year or two away, will be a problem solved with money. It doesn't work, a fact that sobered up the Yankees' way of doing business.

"Never prioritize one year over the future," Epstein said, a phrase of which he's rather fond. Boston has built not just a great team but a powerhouse franchise on planning and patience, the same vital characteristics that now embody Epstein, too, and prove that he really is all grown up.

[Ray10]

Yes Theo is the best GM in baseball he has guided the Sox too 2 World Series in the last 3 years. I'll say hes the best GM there is.

[BoSox21]

No one drafts better than him but his free agent acquisitions haven't been great

[das11209]

IMO he is the best if you consider the results. I don't think he will be this good if he has to operate under a budget. I would certainly rank Beane and Shapiro above him in terms of skills.

[Mr Crunchy]

anyone who gave jd drew 70M,julio lugo 36M and traded a 15 game winner for wmp should be examined by a doctor at spaulding rehab for head injuries.

that said
the drafting and development of our young arms has been a model for the rest of the league
then he brought in ellsbury and pedroia,worked them into the lineup and had nothing but success.
the young pitchers,the young position players and the way this team has been built for october is a great accomplishment but lets understand 1 more thing.
we have the 2nd highest payroll in the league and that alone guarantees us a competetive lineup every april.
theo has done lucky larry luchinos bidding for him but sometimes he gets distracted by shiny things...
based on wins and losses he gets an A but i wonder how other men may do with the same resources.

[DUSTINMOHR4LIFE]

I think that right now, Beane, Theo and Shapiro are 1A, 1B and 1C. Theo is a very, very good GM, but, as others have pointed out already in this thread, he has made some questionable moves in the free agent market over the past couple of years and he also operates under a huge budget. But, as Crunchy said, he made the farm system an asset which is probably the reason why we won the WS last year and he brought in Papi. It would be interesting to see what Theo could do in Beane's or Shapiro's position, and vice versa.

[rician blast]

based on wins and losses he gets an A but i wonder how other men may do with the same resources.

My thoughts exactly.

[example1]

based on wins and losses he gets an A but i wonder how other men may do with the same resources.


It depends, how many do you think would have hired Bill James and followed through with sabermetric analysis all the way, including hiring a manager based on it, acquiring and losing players based on it, etc.,

The thing Theo brings is a willingness to stick to an unorthodox philosophy that--James argues--should have been orthodox for decades at this point. Beane is of the same bent, and there are a few others, but I think Theo's best strength is sticking with that philosophy when 'conventional' wisdom would force others to do otherwise.

That, and he has a shitload of money to work with.

[rician blast]

It depends, how many do you think would have hired Bill James and followed through with sabermetric analysis all the way, including hiring a manager based on it, acquiring and losing players based on it, etc.,



Many teams would have, and have, hired Bill James or a reasonable facsimile thereof.

Easy on giving Theo the credit for Bill James. Lucchino used a similar consultant as far back as 1988 when he was Pres of the Orioles and both he and Henry were big Bill James fans since the early '80s. From what I recall it was Henry/Lucchino that hired James, and I think Theo was just the assistant GM at that time.

[TheKilo]

I'd like to interpret the article in the manner that the Sox have the best FO in all of baseball, as opposed to "Member X" being the best "Position Y" in all of baseball.

[cam780]

I'd like to interpret the article in the manner that the Sox have the best FO in all of baseball, as opposed to "Member X" being the best "Position Y" in all of baseball.

It would be nice if that was the case but I think he was in fact talking only about Theo. I agree with the sentiment to me its the most difficult "position" to grade because alot of that grade has to take into account scouting and ownership.

Theo drafts well because the people who are scouting these kids do their job very well. He's able to sign these kids for out of slot money and get premium free agents because the ownership group is willing to spend the money.

Personally, I do think that Theo is the best GM in baseball for two reasons. The first is the one thing you clearly are able to give the majority of credit to a GM for is the philosophy of a club and his dedication to the farm system is in fact why we are where we are with this club it is also why we were able to sit at the table with the Marlins to talk about Beckett. It is also why we are able to sit at the table with the Twins and to talk about Santana.

Secondly, he is a man with enormous financial backing but his decisions have been for the most part fiscally intelligent. Yes some of the players he has targeted haven't worked out and while no one seemingly wanted JD Drew it was because he was made of glass for the part and he quietly made 140 games this year. He let Pedro and Damon go a year too. The Yankees meanwhile just spent $400 million dollars on three players that in the last year of their respective deals will be making something just shy of $60 million dollars and all of them will be 40 or older. If you take Theo out of the Sox, will the team look the same? Probably not

[example1]

Many teams would have, and have, hired Bill James or a reasonable facsimile thereof.

Easy on giving Theo the credit for Bill James. Lucchino used a similar consultant as far back as 1988 when he was Pres of the Orioles and both he and Henry were big Bill James fans since the early '80s. From what I recall it was Henry/Lucchino that hired James, and I think Theo was just the assistant GM at that time.

I'm not going to go easy on giving credit to Theor for Bill James, because what I was saying is not just hiring bill james, but taking the sabermetric approach and running with it.

Show me another team that has done it as well. Oakland is the closest that I can think of, but nobody has done it through-and through (with the purchasing power that the Sox have).

[TheKilo]

It would be nice if that was the case but I think he was in fact talking only about Theo. I agree with the sentiment to me its the most difficult "position" to grade because alot of that grade has to take into account scouting and ownership.

Theo drafts well because the people who are scouting these kids do their job very well. He's able to sign these kids for out of slot money and get premium free agents because the ownership group is willing to spend the money.

Taken from the article:


How the Red Sox reached this point is the ultimate testament to Epstein and his lieutenants, a front office that includes a pair of contemporaries from elite schools (Jed Hoyer from Wesleyan and Ben Cherington from Amherst), two been-there-done-that scouts (Allard Baird and Craig Shipley) and the father of statistical analysis (Bill James), which gives Boston unparalleled ability to balance all sides of player development.


Personally, I do think that Theo is the best GM in baseball for two reasons. The first is the one thing you clearly are able to give the majority of credit to a GM for is the philosophy of a club and his dedication to the farm system is in fact why we are where we are with this club it is also why we were able to sit at the table with the Marlins to talk about Beckett. It is also why we are able to sit at the table with the Twins and to talk about Santana.

Secondly, he is a man with enormous financial backing but his decisions have been for the most part fiscally intelligent. Yes some of the players he has targeted haven't worked out and while no one seemingly wanted JD Drew it was because he was made of glass for the part and he quietly made 140 games this year. He let Pedro and Damon go a year too. The Yankees meanwhile just spent $400 million dollars on three players that in the last year of their respective deals will be making something just shy of $60 million dollars and all of them will be 40 or older. If you take Theo out of the Sox, will the team look the same? Probably not

I tend to agree with these points though.

[example1]

Another factor, in addition to the good ones I've seen above, is mentioned in the article and quoted by TheKilo. The General Manager position requires a "general" view (i.e., all the references to 'macro' and 'philosophy', the tendency to see things from a long-term or global perspective, etc.,) as well as the ability to "manage". Theo has been a leader by showing nothing but the utmost respect in nearly ALL of his media appearances, quotes and public actions (remember the respect he showed Dice-K, Schilling, parting-ways with Damon, resigning Mike Lowell, etc.,), but he has also surrounded himself with the best LIKE-MINDED group of sub-managers, coaches, scouts, etc., available and has refused to settle for anything less.

Talk about undervalued talent!!

He was able to use the mystique of the Red Sox, coupled with an early WS title, to turn Boston one of a small-number of baseball magnet. He isn't responsible for every move over the past few years, and he isn't responsible for a lot of the financial success of the Sox, but he puts the product on the field, handles difficult negotiations at a world-class level, and regularly conveys calmness in the face of a very passionate fan base. Add to that the fact that he's young and ridiculously articulate about baseball--and the nuances of baseball management--and you have the recipe for someone who is easily one of the best in the world at what they do.

Obviously every GM is different, and coming up with a 'best' is impossible.

However, I think the influence of Epstein is akin to the influence of Bill Belichick. Epstein spends comparably more time behind the scenes; you can learn what he does by reading into sabermetrics and the cutting edge analysis. Belichick spends more time in front of the camera, pacing the sidelines; so you can learn about what he does by analyzing game film and watching the games. They both have a particular type of "guy", they both have benefited from having some of the best players of this generation on their team.

My point is that Theo can be called the "best" GM in the same sense that Belichick can be called the "best" coach. Neither is objectively true, but for people who watch and pay attention to these things it sure feels that way.

Lengthy post summarized: who else would you want?

[rician blast]

Brief article from 2002 regarding Bill James being hired.

http://espn.go.com/mlb/s/2002/1105/1456563.html

I do not dispute Epstein's ability to utilize the analysis prepared by James, clearly the sox FO has done so with much success.

However I do think it is important to note that (1) Lucchino and Henry admired and coveted James and were responsible for that hiring (particularly since James' hiring preceeded Theo's start as GM), (2) Lucchino was one of the first MLB execs to utilize sabermetrics and (3) throughout Theo's tenure we've learned/read/or it has been inferred that he does not operate autonomously and that Lucchino has a great deal of clout when it comes to acquisitions, departures and the $ that are spent.

All this being said, I am of the mind that Epstein being hired as Sox GM was largely due to his being a believer in sabermetrics as opposed to the idea that he was the primary driving force behind the Sox use of such statistical analysis.

Bottom line? Sox have great resources and an excellent FO, scouting system, etc, and have parlayed these attributes into success on the field. Could another GM have succeeded as Theo has. Perhaps, I don't know. But Esptein, IMO, is just one part of the puzzle. Best? Who knows...and does it matter?

[Cityofchampions33]

While I think he is a tad overrated what with the "In Theo We Trust" business, etc. I do think he is a very good GM. I would say Scherholz but he's stepped down to advisor with the Braves. I love Shapiro, that Colon trade was phenomonal, Beane is great at getting a lot out of a little, though as stated by crunchy who knows what those two could do with the same resources.

[Mr Crunchy]

francona has come a long long way in my eyes over the last 2 seasons as well.
he is the manager,he got these guys peaking at the right time and we win the world series because of it
josh beckett was the difference
however
schilling was solid as was the bullpen,paplebon was unhittable and the offense was consistant from soup to nuts...1-9 all contributed in 1 capacity or another.
it truly was a team effort
francona gets an A for not panicking and getting the men peaking at the right time.

anyone want to discuss how well eric gagne contributed to this falls success?
its ok to trust in theo
i tend to trust 97mph fastballs and splitters that fall off the table a bit more

[Jayhawk Bill]

While I think he is a tad overrated what with the "In Theo We Trust" business, etc. I do think he is a very good GM. I would say Scherholz but he's stepped down to advisor with the Braves. I love Shapiro, that Colon trade was phenomonal, Beane is great at getting a lot out of a little, though as stated by crunchy who knows what those two could do with the same resources.

IIRC, Theo Epstein has made the playoffs every season where he was the GM the previous winter, and he's done it despite being outspent by tens of millions by another team in his division every year he's been the GM.

While Epstein hasn't yet assembled the career stats of some other GMs, right now his rate stats are the best in MLB, even considering payroll, especially considering the minor league system inherited and thence developed.