The Red Sox 2008-2009-2010-2011

[cam780]

It's easy to look at the Red Sox after each season, World Series trophy or not, and praise or criticize them based solely on how the team is set up to compete the following year; however, if you take a step back, it is amazing the job that Theo and the ownership group has done at building the foundation for a perennial competitor.

Consider this - after the 2004 season, the Red Sox had to immediately make decisions on four key contributors to the title run. In the next four offseasons (including this current offseason), they will have key decisions to make on 9, which may seem like a lot but the fact that is the exact number of different players the Sox have had playing at short and 2nd alone in the same time span from 04-07, gives that number more perspective. Also, consider that 3 of the 9 decisions pertain to team options and I'm not including Ramirez's options after 08/09 or Beckett's 09 option because the team will have to make a decision on them after 2010. Add to it that there are only two decisions that will need to be made on players in their prime, which has to give leverage to the Sox and you have what looks like the makings of a Yankee's-like dynasty.

Everyone basically knows what the 2008 Red Sox will look like and their only two free agents of note are Ramirez and Varitek. In light of Torii Hunter's deal with LAA, Manny's 20 looks like a steal and I'd put money on the Sox exercising it. The only other power option on the market would be Adam Dunn and he would require a commitment that limits their options in the future. I see Boston resigning Tek for 2 years and around 28 million. I also think they get Santana for Lester, Crisp, Masterson, Oscar Tejeda and Aaron Bates.

The following are my projections for what the Red Sox will be looking at in 2009, 2010 and 2011, taking into consideration prospects, age of free agents, and the way the market will probably shape up. I have used soxprospects.com and Baseball America for my information on the prospects and MLB4U.com for the information on the contracts/markets.

Red Sox in 2009

Batting Order:
Ellsbury - Pedroia - Ortiz - Ramirez - Drew - Youkilis - Lowell - Varitek - Jed Lowrie

Rotation:
Santana - Beckett - Matsuzaka - Buchholz - Michael Bowden

Bullpen:
Papelbon - Okajima - Delcarmen - Snyder - Juan Rincon - Lopez

Offseason:
The Red Sox don't resign Manny to another deal for the twilight of his career.
Kyle Snyder is a free agent that walks.
Josh Beckett's option is exercised and/or he is signed to an extension

Red Sox in 2010

Batting Order:
Ellsbury - Pedroia - Matt Holiday - Ortiz - Drew - Youkilis - Lowrie - Lowell - Varitek

Rotation:
Same as '09

Bullpen:
Same as '09, except for the subtraction of Snyder, he will be replaced Daniel Bard.

Offseason:
David Ortiz' option is exercised.
Beckett and Youkilis are signed to long term deals
Javy Lopez walks.
Mike Lowell walks
Jason Varitek retires

Red Sox in 2011

Batting Order:
Ellsbury - Pedroia - Holiday - Ortiz - Victor Martinez - Drew - Youkilis - Will Middlebrooks - Lowrie

Rotation:
Same as '10

Bullpen:
Same as '10 except for the subtraction of Lopez, he will be replaced by Nick Hagadone.

Okay so why spend this much time and take up this much space to fast forward to 2011? Because I think it helps in the appreciation of what Theo has been doing and if you look at the big picture and see what's out there for the Sox its impressive.

Consider that in the three seasons I outlined there are were only three free agent signings and one trade. In any given year, I only see one possibly two weak spots in the order. And if I were a betting man I'd place that payroll in 2011 around 160 million which is relatively the same amount of growth that the team has had since 2004 for a lineup that could feature all nine hitters batting around .300 and four out of the five pitchers in the rotation with 20 win Cy Young potential AND that my projection didn't factor in Josh Reddick, Ryan Kalish, or Lars Anderson three Sox prospects with high ceilings. With that being said, you have to believe that so long as the kids live up to their potential (and yes that's a big if) we'll have something special here for quite awhile.

[BoSox21]

its great that you put so much thought into something like this but the reality is, there are far too many variables from year to year to even try and predict what the Sox roster would look like even a year from now, let alone four.

the value of prospects fluctuates from year to year as do team's needs and spending ability (five years ago, Toronto couldn't spend shit). The market constantly fluctuates putting a premium on certain positions every year and then after all that, you gotta look at how unforseen circumstances change the course of action to make the Sox better. If, god forbid, Jason Varitek suffers a major injury next year and is relegated to backup duty, if that, for the rest of his career, prospects all of a sudden become trade chips in trying to fill that gap.

[jacksonianmarch]

Holliday is about to sign a 6 yr deal in COL. Juan Rincon regressed and cannot stay healthy. Victor Martinez is a possibility, but he will most likely be a 1b by then. Hell, they want to get him out of the catchers position now. And as nice as it is to have a few good prospects, a HS kid like Middlebrooks is very tough to project. He could lock in early and shoot up the ranks, or he could fizzle from day 1.