Bello and Rafaela Extensions

[mvp 78]

Wanted to see what the board thought about these extensions at the moment.

[Elktonnick]

I do not think Rafaela is major league ready. They brought him up too soon. IMO. Bello likewise it is too early to say.

[notin]

Wanted to see what the board thought about these extensions at the moment.

I like the idea of wrapping up young players early. Rafaela looks a bit worse because he’s a glove-first player playing out of position most of the time. But it’s good to see the Sox doing this for once. And it helps that neither of these deals are so crazy that the player cannot be dealt.

Next they need to extend Crawford and Houck…

[moonslav59]

I like the idea of wrapping up young players early. Rafaela looks a bit worse because he’s a glove-first player playing out of position most of the time. But it’s good to see the Sox doing this for once. And it helps that neither of these deals are so crazy that the player cannot be dealt.

Next they need to extend Crawford and Houck…

Agree on Houck and Crawford. I'd kick the tires hard with Casas, too.

I like the gamble on Rafaela.

Bello seems like a decent bet.

[redsoxrules]

It's obviously still early but Rafaela has been awful and currently a negative .3 WAR

[Bellhorn04]

I voted good for the sake of optimism, but if there was an "I have no freaking idea" option I probably would have chosen that.

[Hugh2]

I’m optimistic that they have started to extend young guys, but it feels like an overpay out of desperation at the same time.

I said all offseason and spring training that Rafaela needed more seasoning, mostly in dead ears. People just can’t seem to figure out spring training stats are largely useless.

I still really like Rafaela, I think him and Bello will be worth the money, but you sign guys this early you expect to get steep discounts.

[notin]

It's obviously still early but Rafaela has been awful and currently a negative .3 WAR

Never judge an 8 year extension by the first 6 weeks…

[Randy Red Sox]

i think in general both are good. it is obviously the strategy now to try and lock up our younger players on team friendly deals.

[Bellhorn04]

Never judge an 8 year extension by the first 6 weeks…

But this is a poll started on May 18/24 and that's all the data there is.

[notin]

But this is a poll started on May 18/24 and that's all the data there is.

When we have limited data, the debate is about the logic of these two extensions and not the results.

I can see an argument that Rafaela was probably not the right candidate. Big extensions for players based on defense are rare, and the only other one that leaps to mind (Seattle’s Evan White) was a massive flop at a much lower cost.

Bello’s $9mill AAV is high leverage reliever/backend starter money. So it’s not a big deal if that’s actually the role he settles into IMO.

And now lock up Houck and Crawford. Casas is being difficult so let him wait and think about how much value injury-prone first basemen with limited defense really have. Even the ones who can hit in April…

[Bellhorn04]

And now lock up Houck and Crawford. Casas is being difficult so let him wait and think about how much value injury-prone first basemen with limited defense really have. Even the ones who can hit in April…

Hit in April? Not sure why you added that. Casas started slow with the bat last year but got much better.

[notin]

Hit in April? Not sure why you added that. Casas started slow with the bat last year but got much better.

He struggled in April last year and this year. Granted, limited data points.

Clearly the Sox are going to struggle to extend Casas because they differ widely on how much he is worth. If that’s going to be the case, I’d prefer the Sox move on for now. There’s actually much more of a rush to extend Houck than Casas…

[Bellhorn04]

He struggled in April last year and this year. Granted, limited data points.

Clearly the Sox are going to struggle to extend Casas because they differ widely on how much he is worth. If that’s going to be the case, I’d prefer the Sox move on for now. There’s actually much more of a rush to extend Houck than Casas…

Casas had an OPS+ of 137 in March-April/24.

[Bellhorn04]

Casas's comments on his extension negotiations didn't bother me. He said what they offered wasn't anything "enticing". He then went on to acknowledge that he needed to become a better all-around player and so on, kind of explaining why the offer wasn't that high. He seems like a pretty open and honest type to me.

[Randy Red Sox]

Casas's comments on his extension negotiations didn't bother me. He said what they offered wasn't anything "enticing". He then went on to acknowledge that he needed to become a better all-around player and so on, kind of explaining why the offer wasn't that high. He seems like a pretty open and honest type to me.

or more likely he wasn't prepared to accept the team's "club friendly" offer

[notin]

Casas had an OPS+ of 137 in March-April/24.

I can dial back on his April struggles, but I still think Houck is a more urgent extension candidate…

[notin]

I can dial back on his April struggles, but I still think Houck is a more urgent extension candidate…

I want to say Crawford is as well. My wanting to extend him in March now might be too late, and a wait-and-see approach, rather than a massive deal based on 9 starts.

Not sure who is a higher extension priority - Casas or Crawford?

[mvp 78]

But this is a poll started on May 18/24 and that's all the data there is.

This was meant to be a decision with the info we have today.

[mvp 78]

When we have limited data, the debate is about the logic of these two extensions and not the results.

I can see an argument that Rafaela was probably not the right candidate. Big extensions for players based on defense are rare, and the only other one that leaps to mind (Seattle’s Evan White) was a massive flop at a much lower cost.

Bello’s $9mill AAV is high leverage reliever/backend starter money. So it’s not a big deal if that’s actually the role he settles into IMO.

And now lock up Houck and Crawford. Casas is being difficult so let him wait and think about how much value injury-prone first basemen with limited defense really have. Even the ones who can hit in April…
PreARB 9M is vastly different than a guy hitting FA earning 9M.

[notin]

This was meant to be a decision with the info we have today.

I like the new philosophy more than these individual extensions…

[notin]

PreARB 9M is vastly different than a guy hitting FA earning 9M.

Yes. That kind of money for a free agent is often spent on a much older player whose best seasons are in the rear view mirror…

[cp176]

I haven't posted for awhile quite simply because there is very little about this team that excites me at all. I would say that anytime you have young pitching that is even adequate in this day and age maybe you should explore a longer term contract signing. Houck should have been locked up for some time now. Bello being locked up before a workhorse like Houck was silly in my estimation. I'd take a shot at Crawford as well. As for the extension to Rafaela, why? An excellent fielder for sure but what else really? Maybe some day just not to day.Oh yes and for the record, I would never have traded Sale for Grissom. Must be easier these days to find good pitching as opposed to second baseman (sarcasm). I should end this little rant by saying that if they try to lock up any of their young players now, maybe we should be happy that they are at least trying to do something as opposed to nothing.

[A Red Sox fan named Hugh]

Man, I like all those guys, but Crawfords delivery really scares me. He won't be a free agent until his age 33 season, I'm good with riding out his team control years.

[mvp 78]

I like the new philosophy more than these individual extensions…

I agree that I like the idea of extensions, but the merit of these two extensions are certainly up for debate.

[mvp 78]

Yes. That kind of money for a free agent is often spent on a much older player whose best seasons are in the rear view mirror…

Whereas allocating 9M on a preARB guy doesn't make a lot of sense if the guy isn't dominating because he should be pulling in 8M less. Where is the cost savings on these two contracts? Bello and Rafaela will have to turn it on considerably to outpace what they would have received in ARB and the first year or two in FA IMO.

[mvp 78]

I haven't posted for awhile quite simply because there is very little about this team that excites me at all. I would say that anytime you have young pitching that is even adequate in this day and age maybe you should explore a longer term contract signing. Houck should have been locked up for some time now. Bello being locked up before a workhorse like Houck was silly in my estimation. I'd take a shot at Crawford as well. As for the extension to Rafaela, why? An excellent fielder for sure but what else really? Maybe some day just not to day.Oh yes and for the record, I would never have traded Sale for Grissom. Must be easier these days to find good pitching as opposed to second baseman (sarcasm). I should end this little rant by saying that if they try to lock up any of their young players now, maybe we should be happy that they are at least trying to do something as opposed to nothing.

At SS: -3 DRS, -5 OAA

They are doing a disservice to him right now IMO. However, I was told that he was going to be able to figure out MLB pitching at some point because that's how it's been for him at every level. I just don't see it right now.

[mvp 78]

Man, I like all those guys, but Crawfords delivery really scares me. He won't be a free agent until his age 33 season, I'm good with riding out his team control years.

Considering all of the pitching injuries, unless the deal is below market or the guy is an absolute stud, I probably go year to year with pitchers too.

[mvp 78]

@SoxNotes
Ceddanne Rafaela leads the Red Sox with 25 RBI, most among MLB rookies.

With a runner on 3rd and less than 2 outs, he has driven in at least 1 run in 11 of 15 opportunities.

.417 AVG
1.083 SLG
16 RBI

2 home runs
2 doubles
1 single
3 sac flies
3 RBI groundouts/FC

[notin]

I agree that I like the idea of extensions, but the merit of these two extensions are certainly up for debate.

Bello - good.

Rafaela - probably a bit too early. Even if he takes over CF, there is a good chance he is Darren Lewis 2.0, but now he is one with a rather hefty contract...

[notin]

Man, I like all those guys, but Crawfords delivery really scares me. He won't be a free agent until his age 33 season, I'm good with riding out his team control years.


That was always the primary criticism of Sale, as well...

[Dipre]

That was always the primary criticism of Sale, as well...

With good reason ultimately.

[Bellhorn04]

That was always the primary criticism of Sale, as well...


With good reason ultimately.

Yeah, the critics in the armchairs always know what's what. :rolleyes: :cool:

What if there was no other way for Sale to pitch and be successful?

Plus even with all the injuries, he's 9th among active pitchers in career innings.

[Dipre]

Yeah, the critics in the armchairs always know what's what. :rolleyes: :cool:

What if there was no other way for Sale to pitch and be successful?

Plus even with all the injuries, he's 9th among active pitchers in career innings.

That's not the point. We're making a factual statement here. Sale is an inverted W pitcher, as presented by some pitching "gurus" way back when he was a prospect. Inverted W mechanics are usually the precursor of eventual TJS surgery. If anything, Sale stayed healthy way longer than what the "experts" predicted.

[Bellhorn04]

That's not the point. We're making a factual statement here. Sale is an inverted W pitcher, as presented by some pitching "gurus" way back when he was a prospect. Inverted W mechanics are usually the precursor of eventual TJS surgery. If anything, Sale stayed healthy way longer than what the "experts" predicted.

So what, though?

Pitching is a high risk profession, period.

Would Sale have had a better career with different mechanics? Can anyone honestly say?

[Dipre]

So what, though?

Pitching is a high risk profession, period.

Would Sale have had a better career with different mechanics? Can anyone honestly say?

No, but that wasn't the point anyone was trying to make. Just a reminder of something to watch out for. I mean, it's a valid discussion IMO.

[A Red Sox fan named Hugh]

That was always the primary criticism of Sale, as well...

And we saw what happened there. We have him for 4 more years through his age 32 season, I'm comfortable riding those out.

[Bellhorn04]

No, but that wasn't the point anyone was trying to make. Just a reminder of something to watch out for. I mean, it's a valid discussion IMO.

OK. It's just that we're kind of through the looking glass now when it comes to pitching injuries. They pretty much all get injured now at some point.

[notin]

OK. It's just that we're kind of through the looking glass now when it comes to pitching injuries. They pretty much all get injured now at some point.

Fine, but a run like Sale had with injuries is far from typical. I mean, who breaks a rib throwing a pitch?

[mvp 78]

Bernardino 1.4 bWAR
Bello 0.5 bWAR

[5GoldGloves:OF,75]

Fine, but a run like Sale had with injuries is far from typical. I mean, who breaks a rib throwing a pitch?

... or swinging a bat, Tris (maybe not bone, but at least tissue)!

[Maxbialystock]

It's obviously still early but Rafaela has been awful and currently a negative .3 WAR

He leads the Sox in rbi's with 28--batting 9th. He gets excellent reads in the outfield and has terrific speed--and he's a pretty fair SS. He's an everyday player, which is a rarity on the 2024 Sox. The Sox are ranked 10th in MLB in SB's with 45, and 25 of those are by Duran (11), Rafaela (7), and Abreu (7), the Sox outfield.

His OPS, .602, is tepid, and he leads the Sox in errors with 8, but I believe he is an asset in the lineup and in the field.

[5GoldGloves:OF,75]

Bernardino 1.4 bWAR
Bello 0.5 bWAR

That 1.4 is a very high WAR for any reliever after one-third of the games. Entire seasons for bullpen guys rarely reach 3 WAR (good starting pitchers often double that or more, because of the proportion of batters faced and innings pitched).

Clase, who leads the AL in saves, has a 1.8 bWAR. Suarez, who just struck out 13 straight in SD, is 1.7...

Mason Miller, the A's rookie who rules the world, has a 1.2 bWAR.... Yankee closer Holmes is 0.8.

[mvp 78]

He leads the Sox in rbi's with 28--batting 9th. He gets excellent reads in the outfield and has terrific speed--and he's a pretty fair SS. He's an everyday player, which is a rarity on the 2024 Sox. The Sox are ranked 10th in MLB in SB's with 45, and 25 of those are by Duran (11), Rafaela (7), and Abreu (7), the Sox outfield.

His OPS, .602, is tepid, and he leads the Sox in errors with 8, but I believe he is an asset in the lineup and in the field.

RBI isn't a sustainable stat.

[5GoldGloves:OF,75]

RBI isn't a sustainable stat.

Lou Gehrig was able to sustain driving in 100 or more runs in 13 straight years before a deadly illness ended his repeated annual production.

He must have some kind of consistent RBI ability, since the guy who batted right in front of him also had 100 or more ribbies 13 times, and wasn't always on base in front of Lou after knocking himself in with the most home runs in history for about half a century.

[mvp 78]

Lou Gehrig was able to sustain driving in 100 or more runs in 13 straight years before a deadly illness ended his repeated annual production.

He must have some kind of consistent RBI ability, since the guy who batted right in front of him also had 100 or more ribbies 13 times, and wasn't always on base in front of Lou after knocking himself in with the most home runs in history for about half a century.

What he had was great players around him constantly on base (400 OBPs) when he put the bat on the ball like Earle Combs, George Selkirk and Babe Ruth. He was a great player that averaged 33 HR's in that time period with guys constantly on base in front of him.

[5GoldGloves:OF,75]

What he had was great players around him constantly on base (400 OBPs) when he put the bat on the ball like Earle Combs, George Selkirk and Babe Ruth. He was a great player that averaged 33 HR's in that time period with guys constantly on base in front of him.

And Combs, Selkirk and Ruth had Gehrig constantly driving them all in.

Lou averaged 89 extra-base hits over 162 games in 17 seasons.

Ruth averaged 88 XBH in 22 seasons.

Devers and Papi have had more than 88 XBH once each. Mookie, Manny, Yaz, Rice never.

I know, level of competition has always been a factor pre- and post-integration. MLB is now recognizing Josh Gibson for the highest career batting average... that's great; but he didn't have to face Hubbell, Grove or Feller on a regular basis, either.

[notin]

That 1.4 is a very high WAR for any reliever after one-third of the games. Entire seasons for bullpen guys rarely reach 3 WAR (good starting pitchers often double that or more, because of the proportion of batters faced and innings pitched).

Clase, who leads the AL in saves, has a 1.8 bWAR. Suarez, who just struck out 13 straight in SD, is 1.7...

Mason Miller, the A's rookie who rules the world, has a 1.2 bWAR.... Yankee closer Holmes is 0.8.

When I read this, my first thought was “Bernardino probably has more IP than those guys.” Wins Above Replacement trends towards being a cumulative stat.

Nope. Fewer IP than all of them…

[Maxbialystock]

When I read this, my first thought was “Bernardino probably has more IP than those guys.” Wins Above Replacement trends towards being a cumulative stat.

Nope. Fewer IP than all of them…

It's both cumulative and qualitative.

[dgalehouse]

I was going to sit down with a pencil and paper and figure out how one guy's bWAR would be higher than another guy's. But it might be different on fWAR. Then I realized that I have no idea how it is derived. And I don't really care.

[Old Red]

I was going to sit down with a pencil and paper and figure out how one guy's bWAR would be higher than another guy's. But it might be different on fWAR. Then I realized that I have no idea how it is derived. And I don't really care.

👍 Not a care in the world.

[mvp 78]

Rafaela:

1st - errors
1st - double plays as OFer
2nd - errors as CFer
3rd - sac flies
3rd - sac hits
5th - caught stealing

[moonslav59]

Rafaela:

1st - errors
1st - double plays as OFer
2nd - errors as CFer
3rd - sac flies
3rd - sac hits
5th - caught stealing

On Sox...
1st RBIs (9 ahead of 3rd place Duran)
2nd in games and PAs
3rd SBs
4th in XBHs (18)
4th TBs (6 behind Abreu and 2 ahead of O'Neill)
4th in Runs (1 behind O'Neill)

[mvp 78]

On Sox...
1st RBIs (9 ahead of 3rd place Duran)
2nd in games and PAs
3rd SBs
4th in XBHs (18)
4th TBs (6 behind Abreu and 2 ahead of O'Neill)
4th in Runs (1 behind O'Neill)




Sox are 17th in hitter fWAR and have a 99 wRC+. His place in Sox standings doesn't get me excited.

[moonslav59]

Sox are 17th in hitter fWAR and have a 99 wRC+. His place in Sox standings doesn't get me excited.

Me neither. Is placements says more about others in the line-up than him, but as bad as he has been, he's not the worst. Not even in OPS, unless you set the sample size above 113 PAs. (which is not a whole hell of a lot, but it is 7th most for this season on the Sox.):

.367 Grissom 87 PAs
.385 Dalbec 63
.443 Cooper 68
.451 Reyes 64

.576 Valdez 113
.597 Rafaela 222
.610 McGuire 109
.632 Smith 106

.736 Yoshida 89
.743 DHam 109
.773 Duran 280

.829 Abreu 189
.832 Wong 167
.847 O'Neill 176
.857 Casas 90

.919 Refsnyder 111
.956 Devers 221

[mvp 78]

Me neither. Is placements says more about others in the line-up than him, but as bad as he has been, he's not the worst. Not even in OPS, unless you set the sample size above 113 PAs. (which is not a whole hell of a lot, but it is 7th most for this season on the Sox.):

.367 Grissom 87 PAs
.385 Dalbec 63
.443 Cooper 68
.451 Reyes 64

.576 Valdez 113
.597 Rafaela 222
.610 McGuire 109
.632 Smith 106

.736 Yoshida 89
.743 DHam 109
.773 Duran 280

.829 Abreu 189
.832 Wong 167
.847 O'Neill 176
.857 Casas 90

.919 Refsnyder 111
.956 Devers 221



Grissom is being paid the minimum. Dalbec is DFA/waiver candidate. Cooper is DFA/waiver candidate. Reyes was sent to AAA then traded. Valdez is a AAA guy and did not receive an extension. That's who you're comparing Rafaela's production with?

[moonslav59]

Grissom is being paid the minimum. Dalbec is DFA/waiver candidate. Cooper is DFA/waiver candidate. Reyes was sent to AAA then traded. Valdez is a AAA guy and did not receive an extension. That's who you're comparing Rafaela's production with?

I know.

I said, it says more about who else is in the line-up.

EValdez is 7th in team PAs. It is fair to compare Rafaela to other top 9 Sox players in PAs.

It's not a feather if Rafaela's cap, but the fact is, he is not "the worst," for what that is worth.

We have a lot of really bad OPS on this team.

We have over 220 PAs in 4 guys below .451. Add Valdez and we are near 340 PAs with a combined OPS around .460.

[mvp 78]

Bello a 5th starter?

[Bellhorn04]

Neither looking great. :p

[notin]

Bello a 5th starter?

He’s also only 25.

If the Sox gave Houck that extension last year, it would have been questioned all year, but it would look genius this season…

[Bellhorn04]

He’s also only 25.

If the Sox gave Houck that extension last year, it would have been questioned all year, but it would look genius this season…

Ifs buts candy nuts.

Not much we're doing looking like genius.

[Tedballgame]

Red Sox top pitching prospect Luis Perales left yesterday’s game at Portland with an arm injury

[Tedballgame]

Perales was averaging 15 strikeouts per 9 innings

[5GoldGloves:OF,75]

Bello and Rafaela are inexperienced and not big league stars, but aren't really part of the overall problem.

They both have above-average talent, and are young enough to improve and become part of a core that someday wins in Boston.

Their contracts don't equate to superstar pay and may even look like bargains in the future, especially compared to salaries the Sox keep dishing out to broken-down guys in their 30s on rehab.

[moonslav59]

Bello and Rafaela are inexperienced and not big league stars, but aren't really part of the overall problem.

They both have above-average talent, and are young enough to improve and become part of a core that someday wins in Boston.

Their contracts don't equate to superstar pay and may even look like bargains in the future, especially compared to salaries the Sox keep dishing out to broken-down guys in their 30s on rehab.

I'm more than fine with extensions like these. In hindsight, I wish we had extended Houck, but yes, we need to start hitting on some of our FA signings.

13/10 Devers (results pending but off to a good start)
145/5 Sale (bust)
140/6 Story (bust with a chance to change to just a bad signing)
90/5 Yoshida (see Story)
68/4 Nate (meh)
60/3 Bogey (good but opted out)
39/2 Giolito (bust)

Had we hit on 3 or 4 of these 7, we likely would not have had so many last place finishes. (3 of the top 4 have been failures)

[Randy Red Sox]

red sox top pitching prospect luis perales left yesterday’s game at portland with an arm injury

ffs

[Randy Red Sox]

I'm more than fine with extensions like these. In hindsight, I wish we had extended Houck, but yes, we need to start hitting on some of our FA signings.

13/10 Devers (results pending but off to a good start)
145/5 Sale (bust)
140/6 Story (bust with a chance to change to just a bad signing)
90/5 Yoshida (see Story)
68/4 Nate (meh)
60/3 Bogey (good but opted out)
39/2 Giolito (bust)

Had we hit on 3 or 4 of these 7, we likely would not have had so many last place finishes. (3 of the top 4 have been failures)

Giolito is actually 39 for ONE {if we are lucky}. the real scary thought is that since we have THREE pitchers signed for next year who won't throw a pitch in 2024 we probably won't be spending on P again this offseason

[moonslav59]

Giolito is actually 39 for ONE {if we are lucky}. the real scary thought is that since we have THREE pitchers signed for next year who won't throw a pitch in 2024 we probably won't be spending on P again this offseason

We are losing 3, too, so who knows:
Pivetta
Jansen
Martin

I think we may skimp on the pen (Hendricks>Jansen and Whitlock/Fulmer> Martin,) but we should add a SP'er.

I'd add 2 solid or even 3.

[Randy Red Sox]

We are losing 3, too, so who knows:
Pivetta
Jansen
Martin

I think we may skimp on the pen (Hendricks>Jansen and Whitlock/Fulmer> Martin,) but we should add a SP'er.

I'd add 2 solid or even 3.

they'll add NONE probably other than a Kluber type or 2 for "depth". I actually expect them to bring back Pivetta because he is fairly durable and will be cheap.

[notin]

Ifs buts candy nuts.

Not much we're doing looking like genius.

Especially our early judgments ;)

You can’t (re:shouldn’t) just a 5 year contract after 2 months…

[Bellhorn04]

Especially our early judgments ;)

You can’t (re:shouldn’t) just a 5 year contract after 2 months…

True, it's just something to jabber about.

[moonslav59]

they'll add NONE probably other than a Kluber type or 2 for "depth". I actually expect them to bring back Pivetta because he is fairly durable and will be cheap.

I have mentioned extending Pivetta, even before his resurgence last year and this year.

It might be more costly, now, but I could see it happening. His stint on the IL is concerning, and I don't trust Sox docs to judge the likelihood of further injury, but every pitcher, these days, is a dice roll on injury.

I'm not expecting a major rotation addition, but losing Jansen ($16M), Pivetta ($7.5M and Martin ($7.5M) does allow us to add a SP'er and still cut spending, again for 2025.

Replacing O'Neill's $5.9M with another equally costly RHB DH/OF-1B type should not be too hard.

We don't have big arb raises pending.

Arb 3: McGuire & Joely
Arb 2: none
Arb 1: Houck, Crawford, Duran will get significant raises, but first arb years are not usually all that big. (also, Dalbec, Reyes & Heinemena are ARB 1s)

IMO, we can spend the exact same as this year and use the $38M on departing FAs to pay for arb raises and a decent SP'er in the $14-20M range. If we look at this year's success or semi-success stories (so far), it could be someone like:

Lugo $15M x 4
Imanaga $13.3M x 5
Stroman $18.5M x 2
Wacah $16M x 2
Manaea $14M x 2
R Lopez $10M x 3
Flaherty $14M x 1

Next year's crop has some that will be out of JH's price range, but here is one list I found:

Burnes
Fried
Flaherty
Pivetta
Lorenzen
Scherzer
Beiber
Corbin
Morton
Stripling
Heaney
Kikuchi

[Tedballgame]

We are losing 3, too, so who knows:
Pivetta
Jansen
Martin

I think we may skimp on the pen (Hendricks>Jansen and Whitlock/Fulmer> Martin,) but we should add a SP'er.

I'd add 2 solid or even 3.

I don't think Whitlock will contribute much in 2025.

[moonslav59]

I don't think Whitlock will contribute much in 2025.

True. Maybe after July from the pen, but I doubt much.

I don't think Henriks and Fulmer = Jansen and Martin, so I do think we add a pitcher of two.

To me, 2 SPers would be min.

2 SP'ers and a SP/RP would be better.

[mvp 78]

Especially our early judgments ;)

You can’t (re:shouldn’t) just a 5 year contract after 2 months…

They shouldn't have given him this much money as it's clearly an overpayment if he has to earn it with production that we are projecting on him years from now. Why give a player an extension if it's not a deal for the team? They gave him #2 extension money. He's not that right now.

[mvp 78]

Bello and Rafaela are inexperienced and not big league stars, but aren't really part of the overall problem.

They both have above-average talent, and are young enough to improve and become part of a core that someday wins in Boston.

Their contracts don't equate to superstar pay and may even look like bargains in the future, especially compared to salaries the Sox keep dishing out to broken-down guys in their 30s on rehab.

They are players that aren't performing NOW and are overpaid NOW which will limit the amount of spending this team can do NOW. It's one thing to give a player a raise if they are actually productive on the field. They are not being paid what they would earn on the open market. Bello blows up once a game and acts like a brat.

[mvp 78]

Red Sox top pitching prospect Luis Perales left yesterday’s game at Portland with an arm injury

That's what happens with pitching prospects these days.

[mvp 78]

Giolito is actually 39 for ONE {if we are lucky}. the real scary thought is that since we have THREE pitchers signed for next year who won't throw a pitch in 2024 we probably won't be spending on P again this offseason

Giolito, Hendriks and Murphy? Not sure how you include Murphy with the other two.

[mvp 78]

I don't think Whitlock will contribute much in 2025.

He got the brace procedure and will be throwing in ST. I think it should be managed bullpen innings going forward like 2021.

[notin]

He got the brace procedure and will be throwing in ST. I think it should be managed bullpen innings going forward like 2021.

It should be. But they’ll probably at still stick him in there until his arm completely separates from his shoulder…

[Old Red]

They are players that aren't performing NOW and are overpaid NOW which will limit the amount of spending this team can do NOW. It's one thing to give a player a raise if they are actually productive on the field. They are not being paid what they would earn on the open market. Bello blows up once a game and acts like a brat.

A BIG BABY brat at that.

[mvp 78]

It should be. But they’ll probably at still stick him in there until his arm completely separates from his shoulder…

I don't think that sounds good at all.

[moonslav59]

Giolito, Hendriks and Murphy? Not sure how you include Murphy with the other two.

Hendriks is supposed to pitch in August 2024. Maybe he meant Fulmer, who does fit with Murphy.

[notin]

Giolito, Hendriks and Murphy? Not sure how you include Murphy with the other two.

Murphy will carry their bags. Those other guys had arm surgery, after all…

[moonslav59]

Red Sox top pitching prospect Luis Perales left yesterday’s game at Portland with an arm injury

Double-A Portland placed Perales on its 7-day injured list Sunday with right elbow inflammation Sunday, Alex Speier of The Boston Globe reports.

[mvp 78]

Hendriks is supposed to pitch in August 2024. Maybe he meant Fulmer, who does fit with Murphy.

Fulmer is on a minor league deal. Not sure how he even compares with the first two? Sign me up for 5 guys like Fulmer every year on minor league deals.

[mvp 78]

Murphy will carry their bags. Those other guys had arm surgery, after all…

Murphy had UCL surgery. I wouldn't want him carrying anyone's bags for a long time.

[mvp 78]

Double-A Portland placed Perales on its 7-day injured list Sunday with right elbow inflammation Sunday, Alex Speier of The Boston Globe reports.

I hope they can just rest him and go easy on him this year. He's never thrown over 90 innings in a season and has a long injury history.

[moonslav59]

Murphy had UCL surgery. I wouldn't want him carrying anyone's bags for a long time.

Maybe a carry on in his right hand, only.

[mvp 78]

Maybe a carry on in his right hand, only.

If you never balance the weight you are carrying, you're liable to wrench your back or spine. Very important to maintain proper load when carrying in the groceries, fellas.

[notin]

Murphy had UCL surgery. I wouldn't want him carrying anyone's bags for a long time.

Tell him to man up…

[moonslav59]

We really cannot go into 2025 wishing upon the injury free star.

We cannot go into 2025 needing 90% of our "what ifs" to come up positive.

Again, I'm expecting nothing more than more O'Neills and Criswells, at best, but I really feel like we are just 3 major additions from being a very strong contender.

I know, I know, three major players is a lot, and perhaps most current, non-contending teams could say the same. Perhaps 2 would be enough, but adding 3 would be ideal.

SP1 Houck
SP2_____
SP3_____
SP4 Giolito
SP5 Bello
SP6/Long RP Crawford

Closer Hendriks
RP2 Slaten
RP3 Whitlock
RP4 Bernardino
RP5 Weissert
RP6 Fulmer
RP7 Wink/Criswell/Fitts/Kelly/Campbell/Guerrero

C Wong/McGuire (Teel)
1B Casas
2B Grissom/DHam (Story)
SS Story/Romy (Mayer)
3B Devers
LF Duran/Ref
CF Rafaela (Anthony)
RF Abreu/Ref (Anthony)
DH__ RHB__/ Yoshida

DHs are not expensive. We lose the salaries of Sale, Jansen, Martin, Pivetta and O'Neill. cots has us $106M under the tax line for '25. I could be wrong, but I think we could spend this much and still be under the tax line:

$25M SP2
$25M SP3
$15M Closer
$10M RHB DH (1B?)
$10M SS (depth)

Asking for 3 is not all that hard.

(I'm not expecting even 1 of these.)

[mvp 78]

Houck is 34 innings away from matching his professional season high (all levels) for innings. It will be interesting to see how they manage him going forward. I'm not comfortable with him being the #1 until we can see him go 170 innings and not have an issue. He might hit that right before the ASB. :eek:

[moonslav59]

Houck is 34 innings away from matching his professional season high (all levels) for innings. It will be interesting to see how they manage him going forward. I'm not comfortable with him being the #1 until we can see him go 170 innings and not have an issue. He might hit that right before the ASB. :eek:

He's getting 2 days extra rest, next start, but I do think they might want to limit these 7 IP starts, going forward.

All we need is a Houck injury.

[mvp 78]

They are paying Bello 9 AAV PRE ARB!!!! Christopher Sanchez just signed an extension for 4/22.5 (two option years after). They aren't the same pitcher, but that's what a reasonable extension looks. I liked the idea of extending Bello and Rafaela, but it was too much money for a team that is overly mindful of its budget.

[Old Red]

They are paying Bello 9 AAV PRE ARB!!!! Christopher Sanchez just signed an extension for 4/22.5 (two option years after). They aren't the same pitcher, but that's what a reasonable extension looks. I liked the idea of extending Bello and Rafaela, but it was too much money for a team that is overly mindful of its budget.

Well at least he’s only getting $1M this year, so hopefully he grows up, and gets better down the road when the money starts getting higher.

[mvp 78]

Well at least he’s only getting $1M this year, so hopefully he grows up, and gets better down the road when the money starts getting higher.

The cash payments don't mattter. What matters is the AAV that hits the luxury tax threshold (9 AAV).

[Bellhorn04]

They are paying Bello 9 AAV PRE ARB!!!! Christopher Sanchez just signed an extension for 4/22.5 (two option years after). They aren't the same pitcher, but that's what a reasonable extension looks. I liked the idea of extending Bello and Rafaela, but it was too much money for a team that is overly mindful of its budget.

Think there was some P.R. desperation involved in these extensions?

[mvp 78]

Think there was some P.R. desperation involved in these extensions?

Shoe betcha!

[moonslav59]

Well, the Rafaela extension is looking better, now, than it was a month ago.

Bello needs to have a summer like 2023 to bring up the talk on him.

[mvp 78]

Well, the Rafaela extension is looking better, now, than it was a month ago.

Bello needs to have a summer like 2023 to bring up the talk on him.

For a 666 OPS, it's still a massive overpay. Even if you projected him to hit 750, it's an overpay for such an early extension.

[mvp 78]

They shouldn't be large enough to hurt the Sox financially, but Henry seems so overly tight fisted now that you really have to think about EVERYTHING.

[moonslav59]

For a 666 OPS, it's still a massive overpay. Even if you projected him to hit 750, it's an overpay for such an early extension.

.750 with his D, an overpay?

I strongly disagree, especially as we know prices are going up and up.

I'd say .700-.725 is worth it. His ability to play CF and SS well is of great value.

[mvp 78]

.750 with his D, an overpay?

I strongly disagree, especially as we know prices are going up and up.

I'd say .700-.725 is worth it. His ability to play CF and SS well is of great value.

Yes, it's an overpay when you compare it to other extensions signed. For a guy with iffy MiLB offensive track record and NO MLB track record, it was a risk extending him for that amount. His defense is flashy as fuck, but he also had 9 errors.

[moonslav59]

Yes, it's an overpay when you compare it to other extensions signed. For a guy with iffy MiLB offensive track record and NO MLB track record, it was a risk extending him for that amount. His defense is flashy as fuck, but he also had 9 errors.

This isn't about what others have gotten: your point was that if he hits .750, it would be an overpay. It would not, IMO.

While the amount of errors he has made is frightening, the amount of plays he has made that maybe nobody or precious few would even make in their dreams numbers was more than 9.

He's still listed as being a +4 OAA in CF. I tend to think he will get a grip on the errors, over time, and maybe playing less SS would help him improve in CF, but I guess we will have to agree to disagree on CR.

[notin]

The biggest issue with the extension to Bello and Rafaela is it’s a reminder of the lack of extensions for Houck and Duran…

[moonslav59]

The biggest issue with the extension to Bello and Rafaela is it’s a reminder of the lack of extensions for Houck and Duran…

Agreed, but not many of us were clamouring for those a couple years or more ago.

[Bellhorn04]

The biggest issue with the extension to Bello and Rafaela is it’s a reminder of the lack of extensions for Houck and Duran…

Houck and Duran have been late bloomers. Pretty hard to predict they would get this good all of a sudden.

[notin]

Houck and Duran have been late bloomers. Pretty hard to predict they would get this good all of a sudden.

Have Bello and Rafaela really bloomed already?

[notin]

Houck and Duran have been late bloomers. Pretty hard to predict they would get this good all of a sudden.

I will say, Duran has 4 more years of control; no real rush to extend.

But Houck has much less…

[Bellhorn04]

Have Bello and Rafaela really bloomed already?

Nope, they were extended before blooming.

[notin]

Nope, they were extended before blooming.

Exactly. Which maybe could have been done with Houck. And Crawford…

[Bellhorn04]

Exactly. Which maybe could have been done with Houck. And Crawford…

Sure seems simple from here!

[mvp 78]

The biggest issue with the extension to Bello and Rafaela is it’s a reminder of the lack of extensions for Houck and Duran…

Duran's price tag is only increasing, Houck's too. Some guys could have been done on the cheap!!!

[mvp 78]

Houck and Duran have been late bloomers. Pretty hard to predict they would get this good all of a sudden.

Maybe not Duran as there was always a question about his bat, but Houck was at least an MLB caliber arm. They could have figured a reasonable amount for him.

[mvp 78]

Exactly. Which maybe could have been done with Houck. And Crawford…

I'd go year to year with a lot of pitchers, especially Kutter. He doesn't have the juice IMO.

[A Red Sox fan named Hugh]

Duran is turning into one of my favorite players on this team. But isn't he controlled through his age 31 season? No need go the extension route there.

[moonslav59]

Duran is turning into one of my favorite players on this team. But isn't he controlled through his age 31 season? No need go the extension route there.

I think the idea was to have extended him 2-3 years ago, maybe to age 32 or 33, at a less cost than he will get now.

[Bellhorn04]

I think the idea was to have extended him 2-3 years ago, maybe to age 32 or 33, at a less cost than he will get now.

Of course. But nobody knew he was capable of this kind of improvement in 2021-2022. He was written off by many.

There's no possible way to get every extension right, any more than than there is with free agents. It's a hard game to forecast.

[moonslav59]

Of course. But nobody knew he was capable of this kind of improvement in 2021-2022. He was written off by many.

There's no possible way to get every extension right, any more than than there is with free agents. It's a hard game to forecast.

Exactly, and hence this debate about Rafaela and Bello, who were both extended before knowing much for sure.

[A Red Sox fan named Hugh]

I think the idea was to have extended him 2-3 years ago, maybe to age 32 or 33, at a less cost than he will get now.

At that time it wasn't looking great, and players usually don't improve like he did on defense. I'm totally ok not taking a chance to get some more years of him in his 30's.

His best skill is still his speed, and that is the first skill to decline.

[moonslav59]

At that time it wasn't looking great, and players usually don't improve like he did on defense. I'm totally ok not taking a chance to get some more years of him in his 30's.

His best skill is still his speed, and that is the first skill to decline.

Agreed. Nobody was for a Duran extension even 2 years ago. Many had doubts 2023 might have been a fluke.

That's why it's risky with extensions before knowing who the player will be.

I hope we guessed right on Rafaela and Bello. The early returns look mixed.

[mvp 78]

Agreed. Nobody was for a Duran extension even 2 years ago. Many had doubts 2023 might have been a fluke.

That's why it's risky with extensions before knowing who the player will be.

I hope we guessed right on Rafaela and Bello. The early returns look mixed.

It's not risky if the extensions are good values unlike the Rafaela and Bello extensions which rely on the players getting better.

[moonslav59]

It's not risky if the extensions are good values unlike the Rafaela and Bello extensions which rely on the players getting better.

When you extend players at their points in development, it is sometimes is about assuming they get better as they near prime.

With Bello, I think they'd have been happy if he just pitched like 2023, for the remainder of the deal. He did have a 3.2 bWAR and 1.6 fWAR in 2023. Fangraphs had a lower WAR and claimed his FA value was $12.8M and is $4M, so far for 2024.

[Dipre]

It's not risky if the extensions are good values unlike the Rafaela and Bello extensions which rely on the players getting better.

Rafaela is a good bet to provide value on defense alone though.

[Bellhorn04]

It's not risky if the extensions are good values unlike the Rafaela and Bello extensions which rely on the players getting better.

It's tricky stuff. If you wait for them to prove themselves the price tag can escalate pretty quickly.

What's the exactly right time to do it?

[Dipre]

It's tricky stuff. If you wait for them to prove themselves the price tag can escalate pretty quickly.

What's the exactly right time to do it?

It's an art, not a science.

[Bellhorn04]

It's an art, not a science.

Or both - like what us accountants and lawyers do. :D

[Dipre]

Or both - like what us accountants and lawyers do. :D

Some aspects of law are science, not art. But litigation is indeed, more art than science. Administrative stuff (setting up SRLs, which is the dominican version of an LLC, mutual consent divorces, and land deed transfers) are very much science, which is why they are generally boring.

[Bellhorn04]

Some aspects of law are science, not art. But litigation is indeed, more art than science. Administrative stuff (setting up SRLs, which is the dominican version of an LLC, mutual consent divorces, and land deed transfers) are very much science, which is why they are generally boring.

Accounting is the same. Following all the rules and regulations and standards can be deadly boring. It's only when you get to be a little creative and play in the margins a bit to the advantage of your client that you feel like you're doing something worthwhile.

[Dipre]

Accounting is the same. Following all the rules and regulations and standards can be deadly boring. It's only when you get to be a little creative and play in the margins a bit to the advantage of your client that you feel like you're doing something worthwhile.

A cousin of mine is the black sheep of the family, and he had the Nobel prize-level idea to break into the business of one of his clients (he installs security cameras, so the irony is not lost on me), to steal car parts for a clunker he decided to buy, as his clients owns a mechanic and parts shop. The guys he was with bolted, as they'd broken in before and the guy was on the lookout. He got caught, dude went at him with a machete, hit him in the head with a cinder block, and left him for dead. Because my cousin is an asshole, and assholes are hard to kill, he's alive an kicking, and I'm left to manage his case and it's an interesting one. The police showed up and took money so the owner of the shop could beat him up, and they also caught him outside the property. This opens many areas of possible defense. This is the artsy part of law.

[mvp 78]

Rafaela is a good bet to provide value on defense alone though.

Provide value sure. However, he's overpaid and they should have just went year to year with him. Defensive guys don't get big ARB deals.

[Bellhorn04]

Provide value sure. However, he's overpaid and they should have just went year to year with him. Defensive guys don't get big ARB deals.

He's been contributing some on offense too, no?

[sk7326]

Provide value sure. However, he's overpaid and they should have just went year to year with him. Defensive guys don't get big ARB deals.

Maybe - but it is hard to see how either of those deals won't end up positive value for the team.

[moonslav59]

Maybe - but it is hard to see how either of those deals won't end up positive value for the team.

Agreed. It’s hard to know what they would have gotten in arbs, but getting the extra years is what we hope will be the kicker!

[notin]

Maybe - but it is hard to see how either of those deals won't end up positive value for the team.

Many have probably forgotten bout the 5 year $25mill extension given to this former Sox player

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/lansimi01.shtml

And that was back in the late 1990's, when that was not exactly utility infielder money...

[mvp 78]

He's been contributing some on offense too, no?

661 OPS is some I guess?

[Bellhorn04]

661 OPS is some I guess?

The OPS has been going up. He has pop and he has speed.

[mvp 78]

The OPS has been going up. He has pop and he has speed.

It's nice that it's going up. Being under 600 was less than ideal!

[notin]

The OPS has been going up. He has pop and he has speed.

He has soda and amphetamines??!?!

[moonslav59]

The OPS has been going up. He has pop and he has speed.

.818 in his last 103 PAs or one month.

While that sample size is still kinda small, it’s a big chunk of 2024.

[moonslav59]

It's nice that it's going up. Being under 600 was less than ideal!

It was .546 over a 148 PA sample size, which is a longer stretch than this recent good stretch, but the recency factor is often used on this site.

[mvp 78]

Rafaela's xWOBA is 259 or bottom 3% in the league. All offensive stats are bottom third or worse (most bottom fifth). He's been lucky in this recent stretch IMO.

818 over the past 103 PA's, but if you break it down:

1040 last 43 PA's
663 previous 60 PA's

He's really just been on a roll since the Phillies series.

[moonslav59]

Rafaela's xWOBA is 259 or bottom 3% in the league. All offensive stats are bottom third or worse (most bottom fifth). He's been lucky in this recent stretch IMO.

818 over the past 103 PA's, but if you break it down:

1040 last 43 PA's
663 previous 60 PA's

He's really just been on a roll since the Phillies series.

Good data dig.

With his glove, I think .663 is okay.

I think he will improve as he ages.

I won’t mention rbis because it is not a skill set.

[sk7326]

Good data dig.

With his glove, I think .663 is okay.

I think he will improve as he ages.

I won’t mention rbis because it is not a skill set.

The thing is he has been terrible at SS defensively while as advertised in CF ... and I imagine that has hurt some of his development all around. I don't blame the Sox for doing it - Cora is trying to win games - but it is what it is.

If he stays at CF full time and can put up a .700 OBP with the power he has, that's a solid starter. He is also a guy who HAS shown improvement at each stop up the ladder.

[mvp 78]

Good data dig.

With his glove, I think .663 is okay.

I think he will improve as he ages.

I won’t mention rbis because it is not a skill set.

I agree about RBI and I do hope he figures it out and can be more than a #9 hitter. I believe more in Rafaela than Bello.

[moonslav59]

The thing is he has been terrible at SS defensively while as advertised in CF ... and I imagine that has hurt some of his development all around. I don't blame the Sox for doing it - Cora is trying to win games - but it is what it is.

If he stays at CF full time and can put up a .700 OBP with the power he has, that's a solid starter. He is also a guy who HAS shown improvement at each stop up the ladder.

Well said. Despite his batting approach, he has kept surprising people with decent offensive numbers. They kept saying, wait till AA, wait till…

No doubt, MLB is a tougher cookie to crack, but he seems to find ways.

[moonslav59]

I agree about RBI and I do hope he figures it out and can be more than a #9 hitter. I believe more in Rafaela than Bello.

Bello has done nothing to help his projections.

[mvp 78]

@itsbrianbarrett
Bello

Lasts 8 starts

10.6% walk rate - 75th of 78 qualifiers during that stretch

.311 OBA - 77th

1.79 WHIP - 78th

7.49 ERA - 78th

5.14 FIP - 69th

[Maxbialystock]

@itsbrianbarrett
Bello

Lasts 8 starts

10.6% walk rate - 75th of 78 qualifiers during that stretch

.311 OBA - 77th

1.79 WHIP - 78th

7.49 ERA - 78th

5.14 FIP - 69th

Interesting and probably valid. My only new thought is that historically the Sox minor league system has not been good at developing good young starters, especially during the JH era. Thus the hefty contracts to bring in starters from elsewhere.

So maybe Bello is about par for the course.

Given the new Boston pitching coach, it's worth noting that in his first 5 starts this season Bello went 26.2 innings while giving up 9 ER's for an ERA of 3.04.

Then he went on the IL for 3 weeks. When he returned on May 12, his ERA for May was 5.66 and for June 8.25. He has pitched the 3d most innings on the Sox, 71.1, and has the 3d most starts, 14.

His last 2 starts were both against the Jays. On the earlier start, he went 6 innings, giving up 2 runs--a quality start. Maybe the Jays learned something in the game 1.

[A Red Sox fan named Hugh]

I thought the contract was premature, but I won't freak out.

Bello is the 4th youngest player to play for this team this year out of 43 mlbers. He's having a bad year, a really bad year, hopefully he can learn from it. I wouldn't even mind seeing if he can ramp it up in the bullpen come playoff time if the Team can add a starter at the deadline.

[5GoldGloves:OF,75]

I thought the contract was premature, but I won't freak out.

Bello is the 4th youngest player to play for this team this year out of 43 mlbers. He's having a bad year, a really bad year, hopefully he can learn from it. I wouldn't even mind seeing if he can ramp it up in the bullpen come playoff time if the Team can add a starter at the deadline.

We know they can, but it's really a question of IF they will add a MAJOR LEAGUE starter better than Bello to the rotation.

Can an infield prospect destined to be exposed to next year's Rule V Draft land a starting pitcher whose ERA is better than 5.55, with a WHIP better than 1.472?

We're not talking picking up a 1984 Rick Sutcliffe here... (for those too young to remember, he went 16-1 and won the NL Cy Young after the Cubs traded for him just before the then-JUNE 15th deadline).

[Bellhorn04]

Last night was a good night for these extensions.

[Yaz Fan Since '67]

Last night was a good night for these extensions.

Seeing Bello last night was a relief. We all know what he can be but will he? Rafaela continues to improve and I think that contract was a good gamble.

[Bellhorn04]

Seeing Bello last night was a relief. We all know what he can be but will he? Rafaela continues to improve and I think that contract was a good gamble.

I have a gut feeling that Bello is going to be okay because I think he's in good hands.

[Old Red]

Last night was a good night for these extensions.

After a slow start Raf Man is looking better, and better, but I still far from sold on BIG Baby Bello.

[Bellhorn04]

After a slow start Raf Man is looking better, and better, but I still far from sold on BIG Baby Bello.

Understandable. He has to prove it.

[notin]

I have a gut feeling that Bello is going to be okay because I think he's in good hands.

I like the Bello extension much better. He was good last year but his last few starts really skewed his numbers…

[Old Red]

Understandable. He has to prove it.

The stuff is there, but I think the head part is holding him back.

[Old Red]

I like the Bello extension much better. He was good last year but his last few starts really skewed his numbers…

Bello is the one pitcher the Red Sox have scored tons of runs for when he pitches. 22 ER in about the same amount of innings in June.

[Bellhorn04]

Read somewhere that Bello threw some four-seamers last night for the first time in a number of games. They're working with him on his pitch mix.

[Old Red]

Read somewhere that Bello threw some four-seamers last night for the first time in a number of games. They're working with him on his pitch mix.

The velo was definitely up there.

[Yaz Fan Since '67]

I have a gut feeling that Bello is going to be okay because I think he's in good hands.

I tend to agree, we have seen what a good job the coaches have done with a staff that we were all convinced was really going to suck. Bello is obviously just so frustrating and we saw it all in 6 innings last night. The first inning he was terrible and could have given up far more than 1 run. Then he was a totally different pitcher, the one we were kind of hoping for in April.