A Realistic View at 2020: Part I

[moonslav59]

The season is not even over, but for some, like myself, looking forward to next year (and beyond) offers more to think and talk about than the remainder of the 2019 season. There is a lot of unknowns about next year.

Who will be the GM?
Will we reset the luxury tax and begin some sort of rebuild?
Will we re-sign any of our free agents to be or try to extend Betts?
Will JBJ, Leon and others still under team control be back?
How good can we be under each spending plan we choose?
If we choose to rebuild, how long might it take to become a top contender again and will anyone on the team now be here to see it?

Here's a look at the specifics of our current roster and how it relates to next season:

Free Agents:
Brock Holt (perhaps the only one who may be back)
Rick Porcello (the innings eater departs)
Mitch Moreland (the oft-injured one departs)
Steve Pearce (We hardly knew ya!)
Andrew Cashner (Just didn't work out here)

Likely Deadwood:
Dustin Pedroia (Chances are just too slight for hopes.)
Rusney Castillo (Not on 40 man- last year of contract)

Possible Trade Fillers, Non Tenders or DFA Candidates:
Jackie Bradley Jr. (Will hate to see him go.)
Steven Wright (How much more can we take?)
Sandy Leon (Is being Sale's caddy enough?)
Ryan Brasier (pre-arb)
Brian Johnson (No options left)
Hector Velazquez (pre-arb)
Mike Shawaryn (pre-arb)
Colten Brewer (pre-arb)
Sam Travis (pre-arb- may keep around)
Tzu-Wei Lin (pre-arb- may keep around)
Ryan Weber (pre-arb)
Travis Lakins (pre-arb)
Bobby Poyner (pre-arb)
Trevor Kelley (pre-arb)
Joey Curletta (pre-arb)
Chris Owings (pre-arb)
1-2 Arbs left (Trade if Rebuilding or Keep if Not?)
Mookie Betts (1 arb left)
Brandon Workman (1 arb)
Eduardo Rodriguez (2 arbs)
Matt Barnes (2 arbs)
Heath Hembree (2 arbs)

Certain Keepers (Hard to trade due to Contract Cost):
Chris Sale
David Price
JD Martinez
Nathan Eovaldi

Certain Keepers (Build Around the Core/Promising pre-arb Players))
Raphel Devers (pre-arb)
Xander Bogaerts
Andrew Benintendi (3 arbs)
Christian Vazquez
Michael Chavis (pre-arb- could be traded or be handed 1B or 2B)
Marcus Walden (pre-arb)
Josh Taylor (pre-arb)
Marco Hernandez (pre-arb)

Rule 5 Candidates:
Christopher Acosta
Fabian Andrade
Yoan Aybar
Roldani Baldwin
Eduard Bazardo
Gary Calvo
Marino Campana
Pedro Castellanos
Rusney Castillo
CJ Chatham
Jake Cosart
Ricardo Cubillan
Bobby Dalbec
Enmanuel De Jesus
Chad De La Guerra
Jhonathan Diaz
Jerry Downs
Devon Fisher
Matthew Gorst
Kyle Hart
Trenton Kemp
Matt Kent
Adam Lau
Nick Lovullo
Everlouis Lozada
Tate Matheny
Samuel Miranda
Oddanier Mosqueda
Josh Ockimey
Angel Padron
Yorvin Pantoja
Keibert Petit
Roniel Raudes
Austin Rei
Hildemaro Requena
Jeremy Rivera
Kleiber Rodriguez
Jake Romanski
Jagger Rusconi
Alberto Schmidt
Andrew Schwaab
Nick Sciortino
Kevin Steen
Cole Sturgeon
Kervin Suarez
Luke Tendler
Josh Tobias
Marcus Wilson

It might be a hard winter to debate, until we know what the spending choice will be. I'm leaning towards re-setting this winter, but going for one more ring in 2020 and re-setting after 2020 might be more likely. Then again, maybe we never re-set.

Let's keep it real, and keep personal attacks on other threads.

I'll do a budget analysis, soon.

[S5Dewey]

I may be in the minority but I still see JBJ as being a part of the team in 2020 on a one year contract. DD likes his defense, and JBJ is good insurance against Mookie's departure - regardless of how it happens.

I also don't see any kind of a reset until 2021. IMO that may be the year when Mookie leaves and when that happens I see some of our higher priced players with options leaving too.

BTW, you have JDM as being a Certain Keeper. Doesn't he have an option after this season? Or are you assuming he won't exercise it? (I expect him to stay even if he has an option but I wouldn't list him as Certain.)

[moonslav59]

I may be in the minority but I still see JBJ as being a part of the team in 2020 on a one year contract. DD likes his defense, and JBJ is good insurance against Mookie's departure - regardless of how it happens.

I also don't see any kind of a reset until 2021. IMO that may be the year when Mookie leaves and when that happens I see some of our higher priced players with options leaving too.

BTW, you have JDM as being a Certain Keeper. Doesn't he have an option after this season? Or are you assuming he won't exercise it? (I expect him to stay even if he has an option but I wouldn't list him as Certain.)

I love JBJ, but I would not pay the likely $10M arb. If we can non tender him and then re-sign him for cheaper, fine. Even if we don't reset, $10M is too much.

I think we can find a great defensive CF'er for a fraction of the cost.

I'm not sure how he is "insurance" for Betts, since they both are FAs after next season. Maybe you meant, if we trade Betts this winter, but what kind of insurance would that be?

I put JD in Keepers, because we cannot really trade him. I assume he does not opt out this winter. A good bet.

I should have said he had an option to make it more accurate, but I still see him as certainly being here next year.

[notin]

JBJ is good insurance against Mookie's departure - regardless of how it happens.

I like JBJ but in no way is he any type of insurance on Mookie’s departure. Mookie is an MVP. Bradley is a one time All Star with good defense and remarkably inconsistent offense who is set to make $10-12mill.

Obviously we don’t know for certain if a reset is in the plans, but it makes more sense to do it after 2019 than 2020. Resetting after 2019 allows the Sox to spend HEAVILY on Betts at minimal penalty. Resetting after 2020 would mean Betts is definitely not coming back.


BTW, you have JDM as being a Certain Keeper. Doesn't he have an option after this season? Or are you assuming he won't exercise it? (I expect him to stay even if he has an option but I wouldn't list him as Certain.)

I expect JD to stay, but obviously the only man he’ll be talking to is Scott Boras. But JD makes $23mill in 2020 and then his salary drops to $19.8mill for 2021 and 2022. As he can also opt out after 2020, I expect he might opt out after 2020 and try to get a 3-4 year deal at a lower AAV...

[Nick]

I love JBJ, but I would not pay the likely $10M arb. If we can non tender him and then re-sign him for cheaper, fine. Even if we don't reset, $10M is too much.

I think we can find a great defensive CF'er for a fraction of the cost.

I'm not sure how he is "insurance" for Betts, since they both are FAs after next season. Maybe you meant, if we trade Betts this winter, but what kind of insurance would that be?

I put JD in Keepers, because we cannot really trade him. I assume he does not opt out this winter. A good bet.

I should have said he had an option to make it more accurate, but I still see him as certainly being here next year.




You are what your offensive stats say you are.....and JBJ is not a very good hitter despite positive streaks that surfaces from time to time. I agree that good defensive center fielders are not hard to find. $10M can go long ways in finding a back end starter or couple of relievers.

[Bellhorn04]

I think we can find a great defensive CF'er for a fraction of the cost.


Names?

[notin]

Names?

The free agent market will have:
Juan Lagares
Cameron Maybin
Billy Hamilton
Jarrod Dyson

Via trade, some possibilities include:
Ender Inciarte
Michael Taylor
Travis Jankowski
Kevin Pillar

Inciarte is a great fit and Atlanta is ready to move on...

[Bellhorn04]

E-Rod is certainly making a case to be part of the team's future.

[notin]

E-Rod is certainly making a case to be part of the team's future.

For 2020, it’s a safe bet we know who 4 of the starters are.

The questions surround:
the fifth starter
1b/2b/Chavis
bullpen
center field

[Bellhorn04]

We can't forget that Chris Sale's status for 2020 is still up in the air. He's to be re-evaluated by Dr. Andrews in 5+ weeks.

[notin]

We can't forget that Chris Sale's status for 2020 is still up in the air. He's to be re-evaluated by Dr. Andrews in 5+ weeks.

Very true.

If it turns out Sale can’t go for 2020, the Sox might as unload Betts and maybe a couple others capable of getting a good return...

[S5Dewey]

I love JBJ, but I would not pay the likely $10M arb. If we can non tender him and then re-sign him for cheaper, fine. Even if we don't reset, $10M is too much.

I think we can find a great defensive CF'er for a fraction of the cost.

I'm not sure how he is "insurance" for Betts, since they both are FAs after next season. Maybe you meant, if we trade Betts this winter, but what kind of insurance would that be?



I feel the same way about signing Mookie that I do about the Sox chances of getting a WC berth this year. Possible, but highly unlikely.
Fenway needs two outstanding outfielders in order to be successful and Beni doesn't fill the bill. So what we're talking about if we lose both of them is finding two outstanding fielders, one of CF and the other for RF, before the 2021 season. Good luck with that.

IMO we'll do well to find one outfielder to come close to replacing Mookie's offense and being average defensively - which is a definite downgrade. Consequently we're going to need someone out there to cover some of the ground that Mookie had covered in the past few years.
So-and-so and his two brothers and six cousins may be available but that doesn't mean they're going to be signed with the Red Sox. Is that a gamble we want to take....to have three outfielders with Benni's defensive skills patrolling the outfield in Fenway, even if it saves...say... $5MM?

OTOH JBJ's status is guaranteed if the FO wants him. One in the hand being worth two in the bush DD may (should) find it more palatable to overpay for him until/unless the situation with Mookie is resolved.

If they can sign Mookie in the off season then JBJ could be made available. If they can't sign Mookie they need to prepare for life without him, and having JBJ in CF is a good start.

Everyone wants to rail on about JBJ but a GG CF'er who's batting .224/.728 and hitting 9th isn't the reason this team probably isn't going to the playoffs.

[notin]

I feel the same way about signing Mookie that I do about the Sox chances of getting a WC berth this year. Possible, but highly unlikely.
Fenway needs two outstanding outfielders in order to be successful and Beni doesn't fill the bill. So what we're talking about if we lose both of them is finding two outstanding fielders, one of CF and the other for RF, before the 2021 season. Good luck with that.

IMO we'll do well to find one outfielder to come close to replacing Mookie's offense and being average defensively - which is a definite downgrade. Consequently we're going to need someone out there to cover some of the ground that Mookie had covered in the past few years.
So-and-so and his two brothers and six cousins may be available but that doesn't mean they're going to be signed with the Red Sox. Is that a gamble we want to take....to have three outfielders with Benni's defensive skills patrolling the outfield in Fenway, even if it saves...say... $5MM?

OTOH JBJ's status is guaranteed if the FO wants him. One in the hand being worth two in the bush DD may (should) find it more palatable to overpay for him until/unless the situation with Mookie is resolved.

If they can sign Mookie in the off season then JBJ could be made available. If they can't sign Mookie they need to prepare for life without him, and having JBJ in CF is a good start.

Everyone wants to rail on about JBJ but a GG CF'er who's batting .224/.728 and hitting 9th isn't the reason this team probably isn't going to the playoffs.

I wouldn’t say the Sox chances of re-signing Mookie are highly unlikely. The chances of extending him before free agency? Sure.

If theSix reset the limit in 2020, they will be able to spend again with minimal penalties. They already have an advantage over 3/4 of MLB in that they can afford the type of contract Mookie wants.

It’s not really fair to say “Well, where do you think he’ll go?” But his options will be limited just because of his asking price. And Boston van position themselves to afford his demands better by resetting this coming year.

If changes of him re-signing are truly highly unlikely, might as well trade him...

[S5Dewey]

I wouldn’t say the Sox chances of re-signing Mookie are highly unlikely. The chances of extending him before free agency? Sure.

If theSix reset the limit in 2020, they will be able to spend again with minimal penalties. They already have an advantage over 3/4 of MLB in that they can afford the type of contract Mookie wants.

It’s not really fair to say “Well, where do you think he’ll go?” But his options will be limited just because of his asking price. And Boston van position themselves to afford his demands better by resetting this coming year.

If changes of him re-signing are truly highly unlikely, might as well trade him...

So to capsulize this... and please correct me if you meant something else... you're an advocate of something short of a Fire Sale for 2020, & holding onto Mookie in hopes that he can be resigned in 2021?

Moon could probably answer this question but I have to wonder exactly how many (contributing) players we'd have to unload to get a reset large enough to allow us to sign Mookie given that most of our money is tied up in non-contributing pitchers. I'm looking at YOU, David Price & Chris Sale.

The good news in that plan.. if this can be considered good news... is that we still don't know the situation with Sale. TJ surgery still hasn't been ruled out for him. If he has to miss 2020 to come back in 2021 the timing may be right for his comeback - but the salary is still there.

[notin]

So to capsulize this... and please correct me if you meant something else... you're an advocate of something short of a Fire Sale for 2020, & holding onto Mookie in hopes that he can be resigned in 2021?

Moon could probably answer this question but I have to wonder exactly how many (contributing) players we'd have to unload to get a reset large enough to allow us to sign Mookie given that most of our money is tied up in non-contributing pitchers. I'm looking at YOU, David Price & Chris Sale.

The good news in that plan.. if this can be considered good news... is that we still don't know the situation with Sale. TJ surgery still hasn't been ruled out for him. If he has to miss 2020 to come back in 2021 the timing may be right for his comeback - but the salary is still there.

From previous conversations with moon, the Sox could get under the limit and keep Mookie, which surprised me given we really don’t know what Mookie’s salary is.

And I wouldn’t consider non-tendering JBJ a fire sale or even close to it. He’s the the ninth spot hitter and isn’t really all that involved defensively. He’s also not worth $10-12mill, and can and probably will be replaced for less. The Sox might even bring Bradley back for less, a move you seem to doubt happens but teams re-sign their own non-tenders all the time. (The Sox did it last year with Sandy Leon.)

I also think the Sox should consider trading Barnes and Dalbec, but that also doesn’t make it a fire sale. Especially if they target major leaguers in return...

[moonslav59]

Names?

I've named quite a few several times but can only remember Billy Hamilton and Ligares. I think Dyson might be available, too. All will cost way less than JBJ's arb.

[S5Dewey]

From previous conversations with moon, the Sox could get under the limit and keep Mookie, which surprised me given we really don’t know what Mookie’s salary is.

And I wouldn’t consider non-tendering JBJ a fire sale or even close to it. He’s the the ninth spot hitter and isn’t really all that involved defensively. He’s also not worth $10-12mill, and can and probably will be replaced for less. The Sox might even bring Bradley back for less, a move you seem to doubt happens but teams re-sign their own non-tenders all the time. (The Sox did it last year with Sandy Leon.)

I also think the Sox should consider trading Barnes and Dalbec, but that also doesn’t make it a fire sale. Especially if they target major leaguers in return...
Of course that's all precipitated on the idea that we can resign Mookie, which is far from being a done deal.

So are you talking about releasing only JBJ, or are you also talking about parting with other players too? Which LT limit are you thinking about getting under? Because when I hear "reset" I'm hearing a total reset, to down below the first limit, and IMO that's going to involve losing more than just JBJ.

But again, I wouldn't reset this year. I'd wait another year. By then the outfield picture will be clearer. There is a core group of players who bring excellence to their positions. Devers, Bogaerts, Vazquez & JBJ. Those are the folks I'd build around. And of course Mookie if he gets resigned. If Mookie gets into the fold then and only then would I even consider parting with JBJ. I'd be making one more run at it with those five + a few additions in the off season.

[moonslav59]

I feel the same way about signing Mookie that I do about the Sox chances of getting a WC berth this year. Possible, but highly unlikely.
Fenway needs two outstanding outfielders in order to be successful and Beni doesn't fill the bill. So what we're talking about if we lose both of them is finding two outstanding fielders, one of CF and the other for RF, before the 2021 season. Good luck with that.

IMO we'll do well to find one outfielder to come close to replacing Mookie's offense and being average defensively - which is a definite downgrade. Consequently we're going to need someone out there to cover some of the ground that Mookie had covered in the past few years.
So-and-so and his two brothers and six cousins may be available but that doesn't mean they're going to be signed with the Red Sox. Is that a gamble we want to take....to have three outfielders with Benni's defensive skills patrolling the outfield in Fenway, even if it saves...say... $5MM?

OTOH JBJ's status is guaranteed if the FO wants him. One in the hand being worth two in the bush DD may (should) find it more palatable to overpay for him until/unless the situation with Mookie is resolved.

If they can sign Mookie in the off season then JBJ could be made available. If they can't sign Mookie they need to prepare for life without him, and having JBJ in CF is a good start.

Everyone wants to rail on about JBJ but a GG CF'er who's batting .224/.728 and hitting 9th isn't the reason this team probably isn't going to the playoffs.

You mean signing JBJ long term or for just 2020?

It's not so certain Betts will be traded, if he doesn't extend or seems contractually out of reach beyond 2020.

One main reason I am for resetting after 2019 and NOT 2020, is that we'd have a better chance at keeping Betts. The side issue would be to find a much cheaper but near equally great defensive CF'er.

Both are FAs after 2020, so I just don't see the insurance argument like you do, but we both want and demand great D up the middle.

[Bellhorn04]

Billy Hamilton's bat would make the game threaders pine for JBJ.

[moonslav59]

Of course that's all precipitated on the idea that we can resign Mookie, which is far from being a done deal.

So are you talking about releasing only JBJ, or are you also talking about parting with other players too? Which LT limit are you thinking about getting under? Because when I hear "reset" I'm hearing a total reset, to down below the first limit, and IMO that's going to involve losing more than just JBJ.

But again, I wouldn't reset this year. I'd wait another year. By then the outfield picture will be clearer. There is a core group of players who bring excellence to their positions. Devers, Bogaerts, Vazquez & JBJ. Those are the folks I'd build around. And of course Mookie if he gets resigned. If Mookie gets into the fold then and only then would I even consider parting with JBJ. I'd be making one more run at it with those five + a few additions in the off season.

It all depends on the reset or not, but if we reset after 2019, I think we'd only have to lose JBJ and not replace Porcello, Moreland, Pearce or Cashner with any costly FA.

We'd have to go with some sort of mix of Chavis/Dalbec/Ockimey/Marco/Chatham/Lin at 1B-2B (back up DH/SS/3B) and cobble together the rest of the pitching staff for just one year, then, perhaps we spend large on Betts and pitchers or someone else and pitchers' if Betts wants more than we are willing to pay.

I'm not saying our future is rosy, but I'm trying to think of ways to minimize the down years while keeping our essential young and prime core players onboard. The damn budget just does not allow for spending $10+M on a .730 GG CF'er who is starting to decline.

[moonslav59]

Billy Hamilton's bat would make the game threaders pine for JBJ.

No doubt, but there would not be the flashes of brilliance that drive us crazy. My thought is many here would rather have a steady .650 guy than one who hits .500 for 3 months, .650 for 2 months and 1.100 for one. (Not me)

[S5Dewey]

You mean signing JBJ long term or for just 2020?

It's not so certain Betts will be traded, if he doesn't extend or seems contractually out of reach beyond 2020.

One main reason I am for resetting after 2019 and NOT 2020, is that we'd have a better chance at keeping Betts. The side issue would be to find a much cheaper but near equally great defensive CF'er.

Both are FAs after 2020, so I just don't see the insurance argument like you do, but we both want and demand great D up the middle.

One year for JBJ. Let him go to arb if necessary but keep him around until the Mookie issue gets settled one way or the other.

My "insurance" argument is that we should make every effort to keep at least one of those guys in the outfield into 2021.

During 2020 one of two things will happen. Either 1) JBJ will become the hitter we want him to be, or 2) He'll be the hitter we've always seen. At that point we'll have a good idea of his value to the team. That value will be higher to the team if Mookie is no longer with us, because of JBJ's defensive ability and it'll be lower if Mookie is still with the team. If he becomes the hitter we want him to be his value will be higher and we can either keep him or move him with a lot higher trade value. If it's lower he can then be non-tendered if necessary.

I say bite the bullet for 2020 and make another run at it, then reorganize for 2021. We shouldn't lose sight of the fact that the ONLY reason this team isn't looking at 100+ wins this year is because of the pitching staff. Changing the defense of the team solves a problem that doesn't exist.

[S5Dewey]

And I wouldn’t consider non-tendering JBJ a fire sale or even close to it. He’s the the ninth spot hitter and isn’t really all that involved defensively. He’s also not worth $10-12mill, and can and probably will be replaced for less. The Sox might even bring Bradley back for less, a move you seem to doubt happens but teams re-sign their own non-tenders all the time. (The Sox did it last year with Sandy Leon.)


Are you really comparing JBJ to Sandy Leon?? Wasn't Leon put on waivers last year and nobody wanted him?? Throw JBJ on the waiver wire and see how many teams want him.

[OH FOY!]

Here's where we stand right now, for Payroll, in 2020.
https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/boston-red-sox/payroll/2020/

Says we have 56,666,667 in Cap Space. Tough to keep it under Luxury Tax. Just Betts alone will be over 20 million.
Just want to point out Rusney is not on the Luxury Tax Cap.

[OH FOY!]

Looks like 5 guys take up 115 Million Dollars, not counting Pedroia.

[notin]

Are you really comparing JBJ to Sandy Leon?? Wasn't Leon put on waivers last year and nobody wanted him?? Throw JBJ on the waiver wire and see how many teams want him.

Irrelevant.

Bradley makes $8.8mill and will get somewhere in the $10-12 mill range in arbitration. Dombrowski isn’t going to pay that much for a glove only CF. No team is

So when Bradley reaches free agency, the Sox will approach him with an offer. If it’s the best offer, he comes back. And it might be the best offer.

If you don’t like the Leon comp (for irrelevant reasons, Oakland did the same with Mike Fiers

[OH FOY!]

This is 2021.
Says we have Only 58+milion in Cap Space.
https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/boston-red-sox/payroll/2021/

[OH FOY!]

I see no Major Free Agents for 2 years at least, unless Henry wants to keep paying, Luxury Tax. Sox have to get rid of Salary, I would guess. But, Sox will have to Pay some to move them.
Like Price, Sale, Eovaldi.

[OH FOY!]

Sox should go for it next year. Then Betts is gone, JBJ might be gone. Keep both this Off-Season. Let Betts go and get what? Too valuable, JBJ salary not going to break the Bank. When your paying Eovaldi 17 million.

[OH FOY!]

Yanks next Off Season will have only 41.300 in Cap space, but most of the Salaries, are Pre-Arbitration, or Arbitration1. Not expensive.
Then in 2021 it jumps up to 99,800, in Cap space.
Dodgers next year will have over 91+,illion in Cap space.
2021 it goes to 121+ million in Cap Space.
Astros will have 104+million in Cap Space in 2020, and 144+,illion in Cap Space in 2021. Plenty to sign some of there kids.
This why you build a Farm.

[moonslav59]

One year for JBJ. Let him go to arb if necessary but keep him around until the Mookie issue gets settled one way or the other.

My "insurance" argument is that we should make every effort to keep at least one of those guys in the outfield into 2021.

During 2020 one of two things will happen. Either 1) JBJ will become the hitter we want him to be, or 2) He'll be the hitter we've always seen. At that point we'll have a good idea of his value to the team. That value will be higher to the team if Mookie is no longer with us, because of JBJ's defensive ability and it'll be lower if Mookie is still with the team. If he becomes the hitter we want him to be his value will be higher and we can either keep him or move him with a lot higher trade value. If it's lower he can then be non-tendered if necessary.

I say bite the bullet for 2020 and make another run at it, then reorganize for 2021. We shouldn't lose sight of the fact that the ONLY reason this team isn't looking at 100+ wins this year is because of the pitching staff. Changing the defense of the team solves a problem that doesn't exist.

Even if JBJ hit .800 in 2020, there's no way I feel secure that is the JBJ for 2021 and beyond. There's no "non tender" after 2020. He'll be a FA just like Betts. He won't get a QO like Betts. He's not worth $10M. He's not the only top defensive CF'er available this winter.

Even if we bite the bullet and go for one more shot at a ring, I doubt we go over the max line. I still think it makes sense to not pay JBJ $10+M. We'll still be up against the max line without JBJ and will need money to build up the pen and 1B or 2B. I say just get a cheaper but still great defensive CF'er and build up the pen & 5th starter slot.

Also, we can always sign JBJ as a FA (after we trade him this winter) for 2021, if we lose Betts. Or, sign some other defensive CF'er.

I'm a huge JBJ fan, but he's not the only great defensive CF'er in MLB. He's also getting older and seems to be on the down swing curve.

[OH FOY!]

The way I look at it is this, if you want to sign High Priced FA's, fine, but Owner has to go all in, and not cry later, he will pay Luxury Tax.
You invest, sometimes you have to invest more, for the results needed.

[OH FOY!]

Even if JBJ hit .800 in 2020, there's no way I feel secure that is the JBJ for 2021 and beyond. There's no "non tender" after 2020. He'll be a FA just like Betts. He won't get a QO like Betts. He's not worth $10M. He's not the only top defensive CF'er available this winter.

Even if we bite the bullet and go for one more shot at a ring, I doubt we go over the max line. I still think it makes sense to not pay JBJ $10+M. We'll still be up against the max line without JBJ and will need money to build up the pen and 1B or 2B. I say just get a cheaper but still great defensive CF'er and build up the pen & 5th starter slot.

Also, we can always sign JBJ as a FA (after we trade him this winter) for 2021, if we lose Betts. Or, sign some other defensive CF'er.

I'm a huge JBJ fan, but he's not the only great defensive CF'er in MLB. He's also getting older and seems to be on the down swing curve.

Little money. 10 million is squat, when your paying Price 31 million. That's how I see it.

[moonslav59]

Here's where we stand right now, for Payroll, in 2020.
https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/boston-red-sox/payroll/2020/

Says we have 56,666,667 in Cap Space. Tough to keep it under Luxury Tax. Just Betts alone will be over 20 million.
Just want to point out Rusney is not on the Luxury Tax Cap.

We can reset by trading JBJ and not signing any FA to more than $2M a year. Keep just about all the arb players, including Betts.

We can easily reset by trading Betts & JBJ. We could even sign a couple FAs that could be part of the future plan, and stay under the first tax line. Reset and go larger in 2021.

I want to keep Betts, but I trust the Sox to know his true value and offer him that or a little more. It's the one area the Sox have always been very good at.

[Fan_since_Boggs]

Little money. 10 million is squat, when your paying Price 31 million. That's how I see it.

True but 10m goes a long way when you are trying to improve your bullpen. For example, 10m, plus a little more (most likely), will secure a closer like W.Smith. Would we rather have Bradley Jr. or a quality closer? I'll take the closer.

I also think Duran is ready to be a ninth hitter next year at the major league level. I've heard all of the arguments against Duran, but my immediate expectations are low--I see Duran as a ninth hitter. The Red Sox should get quality defense from Duran in CF and small ball tendencies--a singles hitter who can steal bases with his blazing speed. And Duran should continue to get better over the next few years in terms of line drive production (doubles rather than singles) and patience at the plate. The Red Sox offense can carry a ninth hitter as Duran continues to develop.

[moonslav59]

Little money. 10 million is squat, when your paying Price 31 million. That's how I see it.

$10M would have gotten us Ottavino.

It's not squat.

"Going all out" likely means still staying under the max line. That means the budget is limited and we have to pick and choose where to spend.

Do you really think a year older JBJ is worth $10M?

Spending large is one of the reasons we won a ring, yes, but it's also part of the reason we are at or near the breaking point.

[moonslav59]

True but 10m goes a long way when you are trying to improve your bullpen. For example, 10m, plus a little more (most likely), will secure a closer like W.Smith. Would we rather have Bradley Jr. or a quality closer? I'll take the closer.

I also think Duran is ready to be a ninth hitter next year at the major league level. I've heard all of the arguments against Duran, but my immediate expectations are low--I see Duran as a ninth hitter. The Red Sox should get quality defense from Duran in CF and small ball tendencies--a singles hitter who can steal bases with his blazing speed. And Duran should continue to get better over the next few years in terms of line drive production (doubles rather than singles) and patience at the plate. The Red Sox offense can carry a ninth hitter as Duran continues to develop.

I'm not sold on Duran being ready by next year (or ever), so I'd rather spend $1-3M on a known great defensive CF'er. That would save $7-10M by trading or non tendering JBJ.

I like the chances of our system depth at 1B and 2B over the OF.

1B: Chavis, Travis, Dalbec, Ockimey (JD?)
2B: Chavis, Marco, Lin, Chatham
OF: Duran and nobody

I like all of the guys listed at 1B and 2B over Duran, in terms of 2020 only.

[S5Dewey]

OK, maybe I'm wrong about this. Maybe those players who are ALMOST as good as a GG'r and can outhit JBJ are everywhere, and they'll sign for $3-4M/year. So lets look at the ones mentioned earlier in the thread. All stats are for 2019.

JBJ - .224/.728, $8.5M

Billy Hamilton - .250/.500, $7.5M
Juan Legares - .215/581, $9.0M
Jarren Duran - .312/.795 (in AA) (haha), but he'll play for the ML Minimum!
Jarrod Dyson - .254/.686, 3.75M, but he's 34 years old!

The only one worth considering is Cameron Maybin .289/.879, and he's playing for the ML Minimum after playing for 10 teams in 12 years and being released by Cleveland. Can you spell "Crapshoot"?

It looks like we could sign any of these guys and save <$4M. Sometimes you get what you pay for.

[S5Dewey]

Irrelevant.

Bradley makes $8.8mill and will get somewhere in the $10-12 mill range in arbitration. Dombrowski isn’t going to pay that much for a glove only CF. No team is

So when Bradley reaches free agency, the Sox will approach him with an offer. If it’s the best offer, he comes back. And it might be the best offer.

If you don’t like the Leon comp (for irrelevant reasons, Oakland did the same with Mike Fiers

...and C'mon. You can't use someone as a comp and then say it's irrelevant! If you didn't think it was relevant you wouldn't have used him as a comp!

[notin]

...and C'mon. You can't use someone as a comp and then say it's irrelevant! If you didn't think it was relevant you wouldn't have used him as a comp!

The comparison was the process.

How much do you think JBJ should be paid?

[notin]

OK, maybe I'm wrong about this. Maybe those players who are ALMOST as good as a GG'r and can outhit JBJ are everywhere, and they'll sign for $3-4M/year. So lets look at the ones mentioned earlier in the thread. All stats are for 2019.

JBJ - .224/.728, $8.5M

Billy Hamilton - .250/.500, $7.5M
Juan Legares - .215/581, $9.0M
Jarren Duran - .312/.795 (in AA) (haha), but he'll play for the ML Minimum!
Jarrod Dyson - .254/.686, 3.75M, but he's 34 years old!

The only one worth considering is Cameron Maybin .289/.879, and he's playing for the ML Minimum after playing for 10 teams in 12 years and being released by Cleveland. Can you spell "Crapshoot"?

It looks like we could sign any of these guys and save <$4M. Sometimes you get what you pay for.

You’re going full tilt straw man here.

I said the Sox likely go defense in center but never set a price.

But I did notice everyone you listed was cheaper than $10-12mill, and by a lot. Including Legares, since it’s the AAV of the contract that matters and Legares’ contract is for 5 years $23mill, which means an AAV of $4.7mill, not $9mill.

My choice would be Inciarte, whose having a rough year but Atlanta appears ready to move on from a “written to be traded” deal.

Of course the Sox could also move on a RF and put Betts in CF. Or sign/trade for someone and move Benintendi to CF. They have a ton of options here...

[moonslav59]

OK, maybe I'm wrong about this. Maybe those players who are ALMOST as good as a GG'r and can outhit JBJ are everywhere, and they'll sign for $3-4M/year. So lets look at the ones mentioned earlier in the thread. All stats are for 2019.

JBJ - .224/.728, $8.5M

Billy Hamilton - .250/.500, $7.5M
Juan Legares - .215/581, $9.0M
Jarren Duran - .312/.795 (in AA) (haha), but he'll play for the ML Minimum!
Jarrod Dyson - .254/.686, 3.75M, but he's 34 years old!

The only one worth considering is Cameron Maybin .289/.879, and he's playing for the ML Minimum after playing for 10 teams in 12 years and being released by Cleveland. Can you spell "Crapshoot"?

It looks like we could sign any of these guys and save <$4M. Sometimes you get what you pay for.

So, we get a .550-.700 hitter who plays near GG defense.

That could easily be JBJ next year at 2X , 3X or 4X the cost.

Hamilton & Dyson may get $2M.

There's probably a great defensive CF'er on some team that hits .600 to.700 that we could get by trading Johnson of Velazquez for.

Hamilton has a UZR/150 of 10.0 over the last 3 years.

Dyson is at 9.3.

Lagares is at 9.2.

I'm not high on Maybin. Others who might be available for cheap could be...

7.0 Jon Jay (was traded this year for not too much)
6.0 Keon Broxton (traded this year)
5.9 Leonys Martin (traded this year)
4.5 Inciarte
4.4 Kevin Pillar (traded this year)
Maybe...
4.9 Manuel Margot (who was demoted at one point this year)

I know UZR/150 is not perfect, but all of the above had a better number than JBJ's 4.1 over the past 3 seasons.

I doubt any loss on defense would be noticable or significant. It could even be better than the 2020 JBJ defense.

If it comes down to offense, then the whole argument we have been using to defend JBJ all the years Meant little.

Look, I love JBJ, but there is just no need to pay $10M for him next year. If we could non tender him and re-sign him for $4-5M, I'm all in.

We need every dollar to upgrade other positions or to try and re-set the tax.

[notin]

Yeah I’d give Brockton a legit chance over Maybin myself. But I doubt Dombrowski mucks about with either one. He might even get a corner OF and shift either Betts or Benintendi to CF...

[Bellhorn04]

4.5 Inciarte
4.4 Kevin Pillar (traded this year)


Inciarte is under contract for 2 more years at about 6 mill per.
Pillar is in final arb year and will probably get about 8 mill.

Plus you have to give up something for them.

All in all not a big saving.

[moonslav59]

Inciarte is under contract for 2 more years at about 6 mill per.
Pillar is in final arb year and will probably get about 8 mill.

Plus you have to give up something for them.

All in all not a big saving.

Okay, cross those two off the list, although Inciarte's $6.1M tax hit is still $4M less than JBJ's.

I'm not an expert on other team's players, but I'm pretty sure all glove CF'ers are out there for the taking.

[S5Dewey]

The comparison was the process.

How much do you think JBJ should be paid?

How much do I think he SHOULD be paid? I think they're all overpaid. As I've said before, if some researcher found a way to cure cancer he would only make a small fraction of money in his life as Mike Trout will make for playing a kid's game. That's ridiculous.

But.. that avoids the intent of your question:
IMO JBJ is slightly overpaid at $8.55M. I also believe that this business of a guaranteed raise each year for players in their arbitration years is plain wrong. Since the system is what it is I see no reason to grant JBJ a raise for 2020 since his contribution wasn't greater in 2019 than it was in 2018.
The two comps who come to mind immediately are Kevin Pillar (.259/.758, $5.8M) and Kevin Keirmaier (.253/.730, $8.2M). It's worth mentioning that Pillar is in the last year of his contract and will probably get a nice raise in his next contract, probably to ~$8M. It's also worth mentioning that Keirmaier will make $10.2M in 2020 and it ramps up to $13M in 2023. Those compare to JBJ's .224/.728, $8.55. For JBJ I'd continue at $8.55M but as I've been told as a member of my town's Budged Committee, I'm a cheap bastard. :)

[Bellhorn04]

Value is all approximate. JBJ's value based on WAR is clearly in the ballpark of 10 mill.

[oldtimer]

How much do I think he SHOULD be paid? I think they're all overpaid. As I've said before, if some researcher found a way to cure cancer he would only make a small fraction of money in his life as Mike Trout will make for playing a kid's game. That's ridiculous.

But.. that avoids the intent of your question:
IMO JBJ is slightly overpaid at $8.55M. I also believe that this business of a guaranteed raise each year for players in their arbitration years is plain wrong. Since the system is what it is I see no reason to grant JBJ a raise for 2020 since his contribution wasn't greater in 2019 than it was in 2018.
The two comps who come to mind immediately are Kevin Pillar (.259/.758, $5.8M) and Kevin Keirmaier (.253/.730, $8.2M). It's worth mentioning that Pillar is in the last year of his contract and will probably get a nice raise in his next contract, probably to ~$8M. It's also worth mentioning that Keirmaier will make $10.2M in 2020 and it ramps up to $13M in 2023. Those compare to JBJ's .224/.728, $8.55. For JBJ I'd continue at $8.55M but as I've been told as a member of my town's Budged Committee, I'm a cheap bastard. :)

A lot of what is paid needs to be based on the objectives of the team and its ability to pay based on meeting those objectives. It appears to me that an object of the team is to improve our farm which means we shouldn't keep spending about the limits. How we do that with existing contracts is the question. We may have to trade some of our players and replace them with younger and lower cost players since some of our ill advised and expensive contracts don't give us much leeway. JBJ is one of those players who may be traded.

[moonslav59]

For argument's sake, let's say all the Sox scouts agree that Billy Hamilton is a better defender than JBJ.

Let's also say he will sign for $2.5M next year with us and JBJ would win a $10.5M arb this winter, if given the chance.

Would you pay JBJ $8M more for the probable .100 better OPS? Does a .100 better OPS cancel out the better D by Hamilton,let alone the $8M that could help us obtain a decent pitcher or two? (Note: Ottavino went for $9M x 3 years.)

OPS Comp:

JBJ:
.728 in 2019 and .723 the last 3 years.
Hamilton:
.543 in 2019 and .613 the last 3 years.

Jarrod Dyson
.686 in 2019 and .647 the last 3 years.

Leonys Martin
.619 in 2019 and .659 the last 3 years.

Juan Lagares
.581 in 2019 and .641 the last 3 years.

My guess is there are more- maybe some unknown defensive whiz in AAA that is currently blocked.

[moonslav59]

A lot of what is paid needs to be based on the objectives of the team and its ability to pay based on meeting those objectives. It appears to me that an object of the team is to improve our farm which means we shouldn't keep spending about the limits. How we do that with existing contracts is the question. We may have to trade some of our players and replace them with younger and lower cost players since some of our ill advised and expensive contracts don't give us much leeway. JBJ is one of those players who may be traded.

Reset or not, I think Sox management will decide not to pay $10+M for JBJ's services, next year.

I'm not sure if we will be trade him or non tender him, but I doubt we keep him, unless it's by non tendering him and then signing him for less than the arb would have been.

[Bellhorn04]

For argument's sake, let's say all the Sox scouts agree that Billy Hamilton is a better defender than JBJ.

Let's also say he will sign for $2.5M next year with us and JBJ would win a $10.5M arb this winter, if given the chance.

Would you pay JBJ $8M more for the probable .100 better OPS? Does a .100 better OPS cancel out the better D by Hamilton,let alone the $8M that could help us obtain a decent pitcher or two?

This is exactly why WAR is a useful tool.

[moonslav59]

This is exactly why WAR is a useful tool.

True, but WAR is also a product or playing a lot. Here are some 2019 WAR numbers with their PAs listed:

2.6 Buxton 295
1.7 Margot 343
1.3 Dyson 370
0.9 JBJ 461
0.3 Hamilton 309
-0.6 Martin 264 (fangraphs had his value at $19.6M in 2018.)
-0.6 Broxton 216 (fangraphs: $27.9M previous 3 yrs)

[S5Dewey]

This is exactly why WAR is a useful tool.

Here's exactly why WAR is not a useful tool, at least in this situation:
1) IIRC we've already discussed and agreed (?) that JBJ's WAR is reduced because he has Mookie beside him and Mookie keeps JBJ from getting to balls he would otherwise get to thereby deflating JBJ's WAR.

2)
BR:
JBJ's WAR = 1.6, Hamilton's WAR = 0.0

Fangraphs:
JBJ: oWAR = -2.6, dWAR = 0.1, WAR = 0.9
BH: oWAR = -17.2, dWAR = 9.7, WAR = 0.3

Two comments: Doesn't the disparity in these two methods strike anyone else as being odd? I mean, -17.2 vs. -2.6? 9.7 vs. 0.1?

Further, assuming that a player's WAR should be a total of his offense and defense...
In what world does -2.6 + 0.1 = 0.9?
In what world does -17.2 + 9.7 = 0.3?
Is that this "new math" we've been hearing about? Or is it just something that's beyond the comprehension of us mere mortals?

And you wonder why i question WAR. :( :confused:

[S5Dewey]

True, but WAR is also a product or playing a lot. Here are some 2019 WAR numbers with their PAs listed:

2.6 Buxton 295
1.7 Margot 343
1.3 Dyson 370
0.9 JBJ 461
0.3 Hamilton 309
-0.6 Martin 264 (fangraphs had his value at $19.6M in 2018.)
-0.6 Broxton 216 (fangraphs: $27.9M previous 3 yrs)




That's all fine and good but when a fan who's NOT a geek looks at the WAR of two players does that fan then think, "Yes' but Player A has played in 35 more games than Player B. Therefore it's not a fair comparison.

In fact, does anyone here do that, or do we just accept that a player with a better WAR is the better player?
Think about it.

[Bellhorn04]

That's all fine and good but when a fan who's NOT a geek looks at the WAR of two players does that fan then think, "Yes' but Player A has played in 35 more games than Player B. Therefore it's not a fair comparison.

In fact, does anyone here do that, or do we just accept that a player with a better WAR is the better player?
Think about it.

WAR requires some digging into. It's just a starting point. If you use it with any regularity you know that it's a 'counting number' so games played is a big factor.

[notin]

Fangraphs:
JBJ: oWAR = -2.6, dWAR = 0.1, WAR = 0.9
BH: oWAR = -17.2, dWAR = 9.7, WAR = 0.3

Two comments: Doesn't the disparity in these two methods strike anyone else as being odd? I mean, -17.2 vs. -2.6? 9.7 vs. 0.1?

Further, assuming that a player's WAR should be a total of his offense and defense...
In what world does -2.6 + 0.1 = 0.9?
In what world does -17.2 + 9.7 = 0.3?
Is that this "new math" we've been hearing about? Or is it just something that's beyond the comprehension of us mere mortals?

And you wonder why i question WAR. :( :confused:

Would it help if you knew those numbers were NOT oWAR and dWAR? The Offense component is batting and baserunning runs above average. And the Defense number is defense runs above average with a positional adjustment...

[notin]

That's all fine and good but when a fan who's NOT a geek looks at the WAR of two players does that fan then think, "Yes' but Player A has played in 35 more games than Player B. Therefore it's not a fair comparison.

In fact, does anyone here do that, or do we just accept that a player with a better WAR is the better player?
Think about it.

Don’t people do that with batting average? Or ERA? This is not new stuff here...

[notin]

True, but WAR is also a product or playing a lot. Here are some 2019 WAR numbers with their PAs listed:

2.6 Buxton 295
1.7 Margot 343
1.3 Dyson 370
0.9 JBJ 461
0.3 Hamilton 309
-0.6 Martin 264 (fangraphs had his value at $19.6M in 2018.)
-0.6 Broxton 216 (fangraphs: $27.9M previous 3 yrs)




Personally I would love for the Sox to get Keon Broxton. Offense is inconsistent. Glove is excellent. Not enough “O”’s in “Smoooooth” to describe him out there...

[harmony]

Personally I would love for the Sox to get Keon Broxton. Offense is inconsistent. Glove is excellent. Not enough “O”’s in “Smoooooth” to describe him out there...
Whom could the Red Sox trade to Seattle for Keon Broxton, who should have three years of team control after this season?

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/broxtke01.shtml

[S5Dewey]

Don’t people do that with batting average? Or ERA? This is not new stuff here...

Of course the difference is that WAR is cumulative whereas BA & ERA are averages (hence the "A" :))

[S5Dewey]

Would it help if you knew those numbers were NOT oWAR and dWAR? The Offense component is batting and baserunning runs above average. And the Defense number is defense runs above average with a positional adjustment...

I can plainly see that WAR is not Rocket Science. It's more complicated than that.

[harmony]

I can plainly see that WAR is not Rocket Science. It's more complicated than that.
https://library.fangraphs.com/misc/war/

https://www.baseball-reference.com/about/war_explained.shtml

[Slasher9]

That's all fine and good but when a fan who's NOT a geek looks at the WAR of two players does that fan then think, "Yes' but Player A has played in 35 more games than Player B. Therefore it's not a fair comparison.

In fact, does anyone here do that, or do we just accept that a player with a better WAR is the better player?
Think about it.

Great point! People throw war out there all the time comparing players and NEVER point out who has played in more or less games. Another reason War is a joke.

[jacksonianmarch]

What about using WAR per game?

[moonslav59]

Great point! People throw war out there all the time comparing players and NEVER point out who has played in more or less games. Another reason War is a joke.

Playing more has value and if you know one player has played way more you can figure out that a player might be better when he plays vs someone with a higher WAR. Not knowing what WAR is measuring is a problem for those who dislike it.

[Slasher9]

Playing more has value and if you know one player has played way more you can figure out that a player might be better when he plays vs someone with a higher WAR. Not knowing what WAR is measuring is a problem for those who dislike it.

Give me a break. Moon, you very damn well know that NOBODY lists games played or AB’s when throwing out war numbers for 2 players. But yeah I just don’t understand war because I called it a joke. Actually you war folk should use WAA which at least shows some actual value and maybe I wouldn’t bitch so much.
War on its own is a joke. Is that better for you?

[moonslav59]

Give me a break. Moon, you very damn well know that NOBODY lists games played or AB’s when throwing out war numbers for 2 players. But yeah I just don’t understand war because I called it a joke. Actually you war folk should use WAA which at least shows some actual value and maybe I wouldn’t bitch so much.
War on its own is a joke. Is that better for you?

I rarely use WAR, but it has value in a way OPS does not. I don't always list ABs when I give Marco's OPS, but maybe I should. His lack of ABs makes his OPS mean much less, and people know it without me pointing out the low ABS. Why not expect people to think the same way with WAR?

[S5Dewey]

Would it help if you knew those numbers were NOT oWAR and dWAR? The Offense component is batting and baserunning runs above average. And the Defense number is defense runs above average with a positional adjustment...

Baseball is comprised of two elements for position players, offense and defense and WAR evaluates players on those two criteria. Regardless of how they're calculated and how they're named at the end of the day they're either offensive stats or defensive stats.

It's not unrealistic to believe that offensive stats + defensive stats = total stats.

[notin]

Great point! People throw war out there all the time comparing players and NEVER point out who has played in more or less games. Another reason War is a joke.

Seriously?

[notin]

Of course the difference is that WAR is cumulative whereas BA & ERA are averages (hence the "A" :))

Wow. Ok.

If Player A has 120 hits in 500 AB and Player B has 100 hits in 300 AB, do you think “Wow. Player A is a much better hitter.”

Are you seriously saying you’ve never looked at time played for any cumulative stat?

[notin]

Baseball is comprised of two elements for position players, offense and defense and WAR evaluates players on those two criteria. Regardless of how they're calculated and how they're named at the end of the day they're either offensive stats or defensive stats.

It's not unrealistic to believe that offensive stats + defensive stats = total stats.

No it’s not. But it’s also unrealistic to add up runs and expect them to equal wins...

[notin]

Great point! People throw war out there all the time comparing players and NEVER point out who has played in more or less games. Another reason War is a joke.

Actually people mention games played all the time

[S5Dewey]

Let's compare two players who used to play in the outfield for the Red Sox, Jackie Jensen and Jimmy Piersall.

Jensen has a career WAR of 27.9. Piersall had a career WAR of 29.4. Pretty much the same player, right? Piersall was maybe a little bit better.

Then when one looks it up they find that they weren't the same player at all. Piersall got his 29.4 WAR over 16 seasons and Jensen got his 27.9 over just 11 seasons. Jensen was by far the better player but WAR would lead the casual fans to believe that Piersall was better because his career WAR was higher.

[S5Dewey]

Actually people mention games played all the time

When talking about WAR? Posters essentially NEVER mention games played when discussing WAR.

[harmony]

When talking about WAR? Posters essentially NEVER mention games played when discussing WAR.
Check post #182 in this thread:

https://www.talksox.com/forum/threads/19439-Countdown-to-Playoffs-2019-edition?p=1278065#post1278065

[moonslav59]

Here's exactly why WAR is not a useful tool, at least in this situation:
1) IIRC we've already discussed and agreed (?) that JBJ's WAR is reduced because he has Mookie beside him and Mookie keeps JBJ from getting to balls he would otherwise get to thereby deflating JBJ's WAR.

2)
BR:
JBJ's WAR = 1.6, Hamilton's WAR = 0.0

Fangraphs:
JBJ: oWAR = -2.6, dWAR = 0.1, WAR = 0.9
BH: oWAR = -17.2, dWAR = 9.7, WAR = 0.3

Two comments: Doesn't the disparity in these two methods strike anyone else as being odd? I mean, -17.2 vs. -2.6? 9.7 vs. 0.1?

Further, assuming that a player's WAR should be a total of his offense and defense...
In what world does -2.6 + 0.1 = 0.9?
In what world does -17.2 + 9.7 = 0.3?
Is that this "new math" we've been hearing about? Or is it just something that's beyond the comprehension of us mere mortals?

And you wonder why i question WAR. :( :confused:

Nothing odd here to me.

[moonslav59]

That's all fine and good but when a fan who's NOT a geek looks at the WAR of two players does that fan then think, "Yes' but Player A has played in 35 more games than Player B. Therefore it's not a fair comparison.

In fact, does anyone here do that, or do we just accept that a player with a better WAR is the better player?
Think about it.

WAR is not necessarily intended to mean who is the better player.

Take Porcello, for an example, I know he is not as good as other pitchers, but his WAR is higher because he gives innings- way more than some. Giving innings has value, especially when you give them year after year. WAR does not say Porcello is better per inning or game.

Not understanding what WAR is or what its uses are is what the problem is.

If I told you Marco was a better offensive player than Beni this year, because he has a higher OPS, you'd immediately bring up the PA disparity, and rightly so.

Beni is worth more, because he plays more. .817 over 528 PAs is worth way more than .820 over 85 PAs. WAR works in a similar way. More games and innings have value as long as you are plus. That doesn't necessarily mean you are better. Maybe had Marco his .820 over 520 PAs, we could say he was better. What about 500? 450? We always have to look at more than one stat of metric to get the true value. WAR tries to measure the total value a player produced over a set time. Yes, it's affected by who plays next to him on defense. It's not perfect. Yes, it's affected by innings pitched or PAs disparities, but it is measuring total value not who is better per AB or PA or IP or batter faced. It's not meant for measuring that, but it seems like some think that is what it is trying to determine.

[moonslav59]

Let's compare two players who used to play in the outfield for the Red Sox, Jackie Jensen and Jimmy Piersall.

Jensen has a career WAR of 27.9. Piersall had a career WAR of 29.4. Pretty much the same player, right? Piersall was maybe a little bit better.

Then when one looks it up they find that they weren't the same player at all. Piersall got his 29.4 WAR over 16 seasons and Jensen got his 27.9 over just 11 seasons. Jensen was by far the better player but WAR would lead the casual fans to believe that Piersall was better because his career WAR was higher.

The casual fan should not be using WAR, if they don't know what it means.

Both Piersall and Jensen gave the same total value to their team, but over way different lengths of time.

I'll ask you if you think this was fair:

When Hank Aaron broke Babe Ruth's HT record, did the casual fan know or care about the fact that he had over 3,300 more PAs than the Babe? What a rip off that HR stat is! Only brainiacs can figure it all out!

Red Sox fans know how great Ted Williams was, and some of us have gone back and looked over his numbers and wondered where he'd be on the all time charts had he not enetered the service twice in his glorious career. We can figure he was a lot better than his cumulative numbers placed him.

We do it all the time. Maybe the casual fan does not, and there's nothing wrong with that, but maybe it's easier to look at HRs and OPS and PAs and try to figure it all out. We can look at career HR/PA, and stats like OPS are in some ways PA independent when sample sizes are large enough or somewhat similar when comparing a players full career vs another, but when there is a significant difference, one should weigh that value accordingly and depending on what sort of value yo want to determine.

A casual fan might look at Moreland's OPS this year and say he's having a great year. Most Sox fans know he killed us by being out so long, and that he mostly just a platoon player. His numbers vs LHPs and his proneness to injury was a major reason we signed Pearce instead of a RP'er, but I digress.

All stats and metrics are flawed.Nobody has said otherwise. WAR is for measuring something different from OPS or HRs or wRC+ of UZR/150. It tries to add a bunch of stuff together and say how mush value a player gave his team. Some of that value is from playing more than others or most players. Some is from doing great, sometimes in much fewer PAs or IP'd. It's not perfect, but neither is any other single stat or metric or something like OPS.

[S5Dewey]

Nothing odd here to me.

That's sarcasm, right?

Wouldn't you find it "odd" if two entities, say, BR & fangraphs, were calculating the same player's OPS and one of them calculated it to be .600 and the other as .900, both defended their calculations, and everyone assumed that they were both right and used them interchangeably?

Nope, nothing odd about that! :rolleyes:

[notin]

Inciarte is under contract for 2 more years at about 6 mill per.
Pillar is in final arb year and will probably get about 8 mill.

Plus you have to give up something for them.

All in all not a big saving.

Inciarte’s AAV could be half of what Bradley gets in arbitration. It actually would be a big deal...

[notin]

That's sarcasm, right?

Wouldn't you find it "odd" if two entities, say, BR & fangraphs, were calculating the same player's OPS and one of them calculated it to be .600 and the other as .900, both defended their calculations, and everyone assumed that they were both right and used them interchangeably?

Nope, nothing odd about that! :rolleyes:


By that logic, eye tests data are useless, too. It’s certainly possible for multiple people to watch the same thing and get different results...

[notin]

That's all fine and good but when a fan who's NOT a geek looks at the WAR of two players does that fan then think, "Yes' but Player A has played in 35 more games than Player B. Therefore it's not a fair comparison.

In fact, does anyone here do that, or do we just accept that a player with a better WAR is the better player?
Think about it.

Is the pitcher with the better ERA the better pitcher? Know how many people think that’s true?

Really this is a flaw with batting average as well. Tons of people think higher BA = better PLAYER (not hitter, player)..

Even though that’s not what WAR measures, it’s closer to true with WAR than other stats with that sand flaw...

[Bellhorn04]

Let's compare two players who used to play in the outfield for the Red Sox, Jackie Jensen and Jimmy Piersall.

Jensen has a career WAR of 27.9. Piersall had a career WAR of 29.4. Pretty much the same player, right? Piersall was maybe a little bit better.

Then when one looks it up they find that they weren't the same player at all. Piersall got his 29.4 WAR over 16 seasons and Jensen got his 27.9 over just 11 seasons. Jensen was by far the better player but WAR would lead the casual fans to believe that Piersall was better because his career WAR was higher.

Casual fans can EASILY find all this stuff on Baseball-Reference. And even the casual fan understands that games played is a crucial number.

[Bellhorn04]

Inciarte’s AAV could be half of what Bradley gets in arbitration. It actually would be a big deal...

But we also have to trade something of value for Inciarte.

[S5Dewey]

Casual fans can EASILY find all this stuff on Baseball-Reference. And even the casual fan understands that games played is a crucial number.

You greatly overestimate the casual fan. I know people who consider themselves to be more than casual fans who barely know BR exists.

[notin]

But we also have to trade something of value for Inciarte.

Not sure how valuable it has to be.

Baseballtradevalues.com, for example, gives him a very low surplus value. He’s in the higher-paid years of his contract. And having a down year.

What if Atlanta would take Brian Johnson or Travis Lakins for him?

[notin]

You greatly overestimate the casual fan. I know people who consider themselves to be more than casual fans who barely know BR exists.

And yet your argument hinges on these people looking up WAR values?

[Bellhorn04]

You greatly overestimate the casual fan. I know people who consider themselves to be more than casual fans who barely know BR exists.

Well, I guess there are degrees of casual.

I think most Red Sox fans know that Ted Williams's career numbers were lower than they could have been because of his years of military service, for example.

[S5Dewey]

And yet your argument hinges on these people looking up WAR values?

Did I say that?

[notin]

Casual fans can EASILY find all this stuff on Baseball-Reference. And even the casual fan understands that games played is a crucial number.

I really don’t see the tragedy in fans “misinterpreting” WAR values. It’s not like there is a ironclad right or wrong answer in a lot of cases. Certain people value certain aspects of the game differently, and that can lead to a multitude of responses.

Heck some fans think a player’s abilities should be solely measured by rings. Trying to say “WAR is flawed because it allows fans to disagree with me” doesn’t really sound like a critical flaw in that case....

[Bellhorn04]

One thing I don't get is the big difference between JBJ's bWAR and his fWAR.

[notin]

One thing I don't get is the big difference between JBJ's bWAR and his fWAR.

Not sure.

But I do know this. All year long I defended Bradley’s weak offense by saying People shouldn’t be so critical of the offense from the ninth spot hitter.

But the flip side is, in a time of a potential budget crunch with multiple needs on the roster, you really can’t expect to pay that same ninth spot hitter with questionable offense $10-12 mill...

[oldtimer]

I believe the team needs to clarify it's thinkiing going forward by starting with a mission statement. These tend to be Captain Obvious, but actions flow from them. My view of a simple mission staqtemnt is:

"Field a team that is competitive in 2020 and every year going forward and that has the ability to compete for championships"

From that statement of goals, actions can be determined by first looking at where we will be at the 2019 seasons conclusion.

From that dose of reality, the decision of to reset or not to reset flows. If we consider not just 2020 but the longer term that decision seems to be clarified based on where we are.

It also identifies what kind of leadership we need going forward. If we want to reset and rebuilld the farm, it may take a different type of leadership.

I tend to be wordy and have written my more detailed thoughts but doubt if people would want to read them so broke it down to the bare bones, from which decisions on JBJ, Betts, Holt, Leon, DD and others could be made rationally. If others think the mission statement should be changed, then it might flow into a different set of decisions.

[Bellhorn04]

Not sure.

But I do know this. All year long I defended Bradley’s weak offense by saying People shouldn’t be so critical of the offense from the ninth spot hitter.

But the flip side is, in a time of a potential budget crunch with multiple needs on the roster, you really can’t expect to pay that same ninth spot hitter with questionable offense $10-12 mill...

I think a lot depends on what we hear about Sale, and how optimistic the pale fellow feels about 2020.

It should be a more interesting offseason than last one.

[Bellhorn04]

I believe the team needs to clarify it's thinkiing going forward by starting with a mission statement. These tend to be Captain Obvious, but actions flow from them. My view of a simple mission staqtemnt is:

"Field a team that is competitive in 2020 and every year going forward and that has the ability to compete for championships"

Isn't that a little unrealistically rosy?

[notin]

I think a lot depends on what we hear about Sale, and how optimistic the pale fellow feels about 2020.

It should be a more interesting offseason than last one.

Not sure.

If they do stay under limits, reportedly they have about $56mill to spend.

Out of that they have to pay Betts, Benintendi, ERod, Workman, Bradley, and all the other arb cases. And then fill out the roster.

Now if they blow past limits in 2019, maybe. But then Mookie is definitely gone forever. Resetting this season keeps them in the very limited Mookie market...

[Bellhorn04]

Not sure.

If they do stay under limits, reportedly they have about $56mill to spend.

Out of that they have to pay Betts, Benintendi, ERod, Workman, Bradley, and all the other arb cases. And then fill out the roster.

Now if they blow past limits in 2019, maybe. But then Mookie is definitely gone forever. Resetting this season keeps them in the very limited Mookie market...

John Henry is not an easy guy to predict. I don't think anyone could have foreseen him paying as much tax as he has for 2018 and 2019.

And this past offseason, where it seemed like the team didn't do much, he nonetheless authorized 145 mill for Sale, 120 mill for Xander, and 68 mill for Eovaldi. That's 333 million in new contracts.

But then after Eovaldi and Pearce he closed the wallet.

[notin]

I think a lot depends on what we hear about Sale, and how optimistic the pale fellow feels about 2020.

It should be a more interesting offseason than last one.

If it’s as uninteresting as last off-season, I plan on complaining even more....

[notin]

John Henry is not an easy guy to predict. I don't think anyone could have foreseen him paying as much tax as he has for 2018 and 2019.

And this past offseason, where it seemed like the team didn't do much, he nonetheless authorized 145 mill for Sale, 120 mill for Xander, and 68 mill for Eovaldi. That's 333 million in new contracts.

But then after Eovaldi and Pearce he closed the wallet.

The safe assumption is the reset.

That way an additional spending is a pleasant surprise...

[S5Dewey]

One thing I don't get is the big difference between JBJ's bWAR and his fWAR.

Then doesn't that raise a flag with you that there may be something inherently wrong with either (or both!) methods of calculation and we only noticed it because JBJ is a bit closer to our hearts than Kevin Pillar?

Further, is the flaw restricted to centerfielders, or does it pertain to all outfielders, or even to all position players? I'm not saying it does... but it's a question worth asking when one sees such a dramatic difference between one player's WAR when calculated by two different entities. Or is the real problem in how the "Replacement Player's" WAR is determined, because if that's the baseline and it's skewed than every comparison to it is also skewed.

That's why... forgive me... but IMO WAR creates as many questions as it answers. Ya. It's a nice number to have but it's not anything one should be hanging their hats on any more than the eye test is. One is as fallible as the other, and yet some posters want to continually denigrate the eye test while championing WAR.

[Bellhorn04]

That's why... forgive me... but IMO WAR creates as many questions as it answers. Ya. It's a nice number to have but it's not anything one should be hanging their hats on any more than the eye test is. One is as fallible as the other, and yet some posters want to continually denigrate the eye test while championing WAR.

I don't denigrate the eye test as much as some do. I just don't watch many games start to finish any more, so I need the numbers.

With JBJ I like that WAR tries to answer the question of whether his defense more than makes up for his subpar bat. And the fact is that WAR has been very good to JBJ.

I don't disagree that the variances can be confusing. But someone who has the know-how and patience can dig deep into the details and figure out what's going on.

[notin]

Then doesn't that raise a flag with you that there may be something inherently wrong with either (or both!) methods of calculation and we only noticed it because JBJ is a bit closer to our hearts than Kevin Pillar?

Further, is the flaw restricted to centerfielders, or does it pertain to all outfielders, or even to all position players? I'm not saying it does... but it's a question worth asking when one sees such a dramatic difference between one player's WAR when calculated by two different entities. Or is the real problem in how the "Replacement Player's" WAR is determined, because if that's the baseline and it's skewed than every comparison to it is also skewed.

That's why... forgive me... but IMO WAR creates as many questions as it answers. Ya. It's a nice number to have but it's not anything one should be hanging their hats on any more than the eye test is. One is as fallible as the other, and yet some posters want to continually denigrate the eye test while championing WAR.

Most people don’t know how to use the eye test.

1) It’s not even for the same criteria as WAR.
2) It doesn’t work for televised baseball.
3) It primarily involves massive imbalances in sample size. So saying “Bradley is a good CF” with the eye test is one thing. But saying “Bradley is a the best defensive CF” or “Bradley is a better defensive CF than Pillar and Kiermeier” with eye test criteria is another.
4) And to be honest, for most people the eye test boils down to “ I saw that guy make an error once.” You can’t denigrate WAR because people might not understand it, but still champion the eye test with that flaw...

[S5Dewey]

4) And to be honest, for most people the eye test boils down to “ I saw that guy make an error once.” You can’t denigrate WAR because people might not understand it, but still champion the eye test with that flaw...

Straw man alert!

I don't denigrate WAR because some people don't understand it. I denigrate WAR because there are obvious flaws in it that show up both in real time play and in comparing one entities WAR with another entities WAR.

You can't denigrate the eye test because you believe there are flaws in it but champion WAR in spite of the flaws.

[notin]

Straw man alert!

I don't denigrate WAR because some people don't understand it. I denigrate WAR because there are obvious flaws in it that show up both in real time play and in comparing one entities WAR with another entities WAR.

You can't denigrate the eye test because you believe there are flaws in it but champion WAR in spite of the flaws.

You did it twice on this thread. In the Jensen/Piersall post, and a later post about some baseball experts who don’t know about baseball-reference.com. (The app doesn’t show post numbers. Apologies.)

And the big difference between WAR and the eye test is that WAR has a baseline. The eye test is 100% subjectivity...

[OH FOY!]

1 thing only the eye test, shows you outs in a game, that are productive, to win it.

[S5Dewey]

You did it twice on this thread. In the Jensen/Piersall post, and a later post about some baseball experts who don’t know about baseball-reference.com. (The app doesn’t show post numbers. Apologies.)

And the big difference between WAR and the eye test is that WAR has a baseline. The eye test is 100% subjectivity...

The implication there is that WAR is perfect and that the only people who don't believe in it wholeheartedly are those who don't understand it. Condescending much?

The "eye test" and its subjectivity has served baseball well for generations. Through the subjective eye test scouts have recognized different levels of talent and abilities, even without all the advanced metrics. Amazing, huh?

And BTW, having a baseline for WAR is meaningless if the data being compared to it is flawed.

[Slasher9]

Check post #182 in this thread:

https://www.talksox.com/forum/threads/19439-Countdown-to-Playoffs-2019-edition?p=1278065#post1278065

Actually Harmony when I made my post I was going to add that harmony is the only one to usually add that. But most don’t. Would you agree with that?

[Slasher9]

And yet your argument hinges on these people looking up WAR values?

They don’t need to. At the Mets v braves game Friday night the big screen showed bWar for every batter that came up. I had to explain what it meant to every person around me including my 87 year old father who has watched a billion baseball games in his life. I would bet there were 30k people in that stadium that had zero clue what bWar meant. But when they saw a player with a higher number they instantly assumed he was the better player. Try some real life examples instead of pontificating on what you think is reality. Because you are wrong.

[notin]

The implication there is that WAR is perfect and that the only people who don't believe in it wholeheartedly are those who don't understand it. Condescending much?

The "eye test" and its subjectivity has served baseball well for generations. Through the subjective eye test scouts have recognized different levels of talent and abilities, even without all the advanced metrics. Amazing, huh?

And BTW, having a baseline for WAR is meaningless if the data being compared to it is flawed.

No one has EVER said WAR is perfect. No one has even implied it. That you infer WAR being perfect is not the fault of the stat.


And we’re not talking about scouts doing eye test. We’re talking about fans. Potentially rabid fans, but fans nonetheless.

However, the argument “it worked for years” doesn’t fly. Horses served the transportation market for centuries. But I bet you still own a car...

[notin]

They don’t need to. At the Mets v braves game Friday night the big screen showed bWar for every batter that came up. I had to explain what it meant to every person around me including my 87 year old father who has watched a billion baseball games in his life. I would bet there were 30k people in that stadium that had zero clue what bWar meant. But when they saw a player with a higher number they instantly assumed he was the better player. Try some real life examples instead of pontificating on what you think is reality. Because you are wrong.

So... you’re worried about the perception of a stat that you had to explain to people?

Let’s just say casual fans assume “higher equals better” and take it as gospel. What’s the big deal? People make massive assumptions about ERA and BA and have for over a century.

[notin]

Actually Harmony when I made my post I was going to add that harmony is the only one to usually add that. But most don’t. Would you agree with that?

The app doesn’t show post numbers. C&P please?

[notin]

Most of your criticisms of WAR can be applied to any stat. Not perfect. Easily misinterpreted.

Stats are a historical record. All of them,including WAR, RBIs, K/BB. They’re all stuff that happened, whether they’re easy to understand or not. Or interpreted different ways. But no stat judges talent. Not one.

Citing the equality in WAR between Jensen and Piersall as a flaw ignores different ways of looking at it. Anyone who values longevity for example.

All stats have that issue. I know people who think a hitter is measured by home runs. So do you. There are a lot of them. If you use home runs as a yardstick, Jim Thome was better than Ted Williams. Does that mean home runs are flawed?

Hell if you want to see an overvaluedflawed stat, go see who is second on the Sox in Wins this year. And you absolutely know people who think wins are a measure of pitching ability. Only recently did the BBWAA come to the realization they may not be.

Or maybe Porcello is the second most talented pitcher on the Sox.

The counter argument is a lot of stats have issues. Focusing on WAR like it’s the only one is ignorant of this...

[notin]

Putting aside WAR arguments (stop bringing them up, Bellhorn!!;) ), this is a thread about 2020. Obviously s lot hinges on Sale.

OH FOY (I believe) cited the sportrac.com number that the Sox available budget for 2020 is $56mill. If the arbitration cases for Betts (say, $25mill), ERod ($8mill-ish) and Benintendi ($6mill) come out with these wild guesses which could be collectively close, that leaves about $17mill for remaining arbitration cases (Barnes, Workman, Hembree, and a couple others) finishing the 25 man roster, and leaving a little headway to improve or replace an injured player mid season. Tight budget.

This is if a reset is in order. If the Sox go all in for 2020, it does mean 2021 and beyond are very likely going to be struggles...

[notin]

One thing I don't get is the big difference between JBJ's bWAR and his fWAR.

I think it comes down to each source measuring differently what it takes to contribute to a win. Doesn’t mean either one is wrong, but they are measuring different aspects of the same thing

It’s like if you asked two fisherman which one caught the bigger fish. If the first one said “mine was 30 inches” and the second one said “mine was 12 pounds”, who caught the bigger fish, using that data only? And is either one “wrong”?

[moonslav59]

That's sarcasm, right?

Wouldn't you find it "odd" if two entities, say, BR & fangraphs, were calculating the same player's OPS and one of them calculated it to be .600 and the other as .900, both defended their calculations, and everyone assumed that they were both right and used them interchangeably?

Nope, nothing odd about that! :rolleyes:

It was not sarcasm. I find absolutely nothing odd.

What I find odd is the statement that "everyone assumed they are both right." I'm not sure where you get that from.

Everyone, I know, that sees the (limited) value of WAR says it is imperfect and knows both sights uses different methodologies to come up with their final numbers.

[moonslav59]

I believe the team needs to clarify it's thinkiing going forward by starting with a mission statement. These tend to be Captain Obvious, but actions flow from them. My view of a simple mission staqtemnt is:

"Field a team that is competitive in 2020 and every year going forward and that has the ability to compete for championships"

From that statement of goals, actions can be determined by first looking at where we will be at the 2019 seasons conclusion.

From that dose of reality, the decision of to reset or not to reset flows. If we consider not just 2020 but the longer term that decision seems to be clarified based on where we are.

It also identifies what kind of leadership we need going forward. If we want to reset and rebuilld the farm, it may take a different type of leadership.

I tend to be wordy and have written my more detailed thoughts but doubt if people would want to read them so broke it down to the bare bones, from which decisions on JBJ, Betts, Holt, Leon, DD and others could be made rationally. If others think the mission statement should be changed, then it might flow into a different set of decisions.

Does competitive mean finishing 88-74 or 86-76?

IMO, expecting us to be competitive for a playoff spot every year with our farm the way it is, means we'll have to keep spending large year after year with no reset in sight.

[moonslav59]

Not sure.

If they do stay under limits, reportedly they have about $56mill to spend.

Out of that they have to pay Betts, Benintendi, ERod, Workman, Bradley, and all the other arb cases. And then fill out the roster.

Now if they blow past limits in 2019, maybe. But then Mookie is definitely gone forever. Resetting this season keeps them in the very limited Mookie market...

That's what I've been saying for months.

With Sale's health being in question, and a reset possible by just trading JBJ, we can keep Betts next year and maybe trade him at the deadline, if re-signing him looks like a long shot.Trading him actually does him a favor, as it would lift the QO penalty on a team signing him next year.

I think we could at least attempt to keep the rebuild to 1 year: 2020.

We'll also be getting a better draft pick this year and maybe an even better one for 2021. This might help us to slightly improve the farm for the longer term outlook, while spending larger for 2021 might get us back into the race quicker than I thought we could. Of course, it will take flawless FA signings for 2021, savvy draft picks these next 2 year and some tough choices on who we need to let go and keep.

I do not think DD is the man for that job, but that's just me.

[notin]

Does competitive mean finishing 88-74 or 86-76?

IMO, expecting us to be competitive for a playoff spot every year with our farm the way it is, means we'll have to keep spending large year after year with no reset in sight.

The fact that we still have optimistic fans and an outside chance does mean the team is competitive. Ask harmony if he thinks the Mariners are this year...

[moonslav59]

Then doesn't that raise a flag with you that there may be something inherently wrong with either (or both!) methods of calculation and we only noticed it because JBJ is a bit closer to our hearts than Kevin Pillar?

Further, is the flaw restricted to centerfielders, or does it pertain to all outfielders, or even to all position players? I'm not saying it does... but it's a question worth asking when one sees such a dramatic difference between one player's WAR when calculated by two different entities. Or is the real problem in how the "Replacement Player's" WAR is determined, because if that's the baseline and it's skewed than every comparison to it is also skewed.

That's why... forgive me... but IMO WAR creates as many questions as it answers. Ya. It's a nice number to have but it's not anything one should be hanging their hats on any more than the eye test is. One is as fallible as the other, and yet some posters want to continually denigrate the eye test while championing WAR.

The only reason I value WAR more highly than the eye test, and I do not think WAR is perfect or even close, is that I never watch any games other than the Sox.

My assigned value for Pillar would be a stab in the dark and woefully inadequate.

I trust WAR more than eyes that only see a player play 0-17 games a year. That's all it it is to me.

I am in no way 100% or even 80% sure that WAR is telling me player A had more value this year than player B. I know WAR is not meant to show who is better when they play. It is a cumulative metric, so I see some misusing it to claim player A is better than B based on a WAR number.

I'm probably only 50% sure that player A is better than player B by looking at just BA, Fld%, HRs, SBs and RBIs and trying to juggle the weighted values of each in my head. Then, I need to look at PAs and sample size length. Is 2 months enough? Just the this season? Last 2-3 seasons? Career?

Nothing- not one stat of metric will ever definitively end the debate. They all are flawed and nobody I know ever has said anything is even close to perfect.

"Championing WAR" over the eye test is not the same as saying it is perfect. Both have serious flaws, but IMO, WAR's flaws have to be less than the ye test, unless I'm talking to someone who watched 50-60% or more of every player's games with an unbiased eye. That's my opinion.

[moonslav59]

The fact that we still have optimistic fans and an outside chance does mean the team is competitive. Ask harmony if he thinks the Mariners are this year...

That's what I was getting at. I think 88-74 is close to being competitive but is not.

I think we have to think about not being even 86-76 for a year or two before we can get truly competitive again.

I'd rather win a ring every 5-6 years than be 88-74 all 5 years and never get close to a ring, but that's juts me.

I'm not saying we have to suck the other 4 years. The Ben example was 3 last place finishes to one ring, and that sucked, but what made those years fine with me was the bright hopes I had for the future, because our farm was one of the best. Winning once out of 4 years with 3 first place finishes was great, but with a bottom 3 farm, I'm not sure I'd like that plan more than Ben's. They both won a ring, but Ben left a future- a future, I might add, that DD used and exploited to win his ring.

I'm glad DD got us a ring. His plan worked. But I felt better going into the winter after Ben than going into this winter.

[notin]

When talking about WAR? Posters essentially NEVER mention games played when discussing WAR.

Harmony does it daily...

[moonslav59]

Harmony does it daily...

When people cite BA, OPS, HRs, etc... do they always include games played or PAs?

It's kind of understood that when there are great variances in games played of PAs when comparing two players, we factor in the sample sizes.

We may think player A is better than B based on better numbers per game (or 162 game prorations), but player B is more valuable because he plays way more games.

Why we wouldn't expect people to think the same way with WAR highlights the fact that many don't understand what WAR measures.

Here's a great comp that Sox fans can be in tune with. Let's compare Porcello and Price with the Sox since 2016.

We'd all say Price is the better pitcher and has been the better pitcher over those years, when he pitches. I would not disagree. We all know Price has been fragile, pitches less IP per start and has less starts than Porcello. We all probably agree that IP and GS'd are valuable, too. So, when we think of total value, we have to do sort of mental evaluation on how to weigh effectiveness vs longevity and durability. It's not easy to do in our heads. We each probably value one more than the other in differing degrees.

ERA:
3.85 Price (85 ERA-)
4.28 Porcello (94 ERA-)

xFIP
3.76 Price
4.32 Porcello

WHIP
1.20 Price
1.23 Porcello

K/BB
3.95 Porcello
3.92 Price

W-L
46-24 Price
61-38 Porcello

WAR (a cumulative metric)
10.7 Porcello
10.5 Price

Why? Because of this....

GS
125 Porcello
97 Price

IP
762 Porcello
586 Price

The difference here is 28 starts and 176 IP. That's 28 more starts of 6.1 IP each over 4 years. That's about a full season more of pitching over 4 years. Surely that has major value. How much value is up for debate, and WAR has their formula for counting that. Maybe it is flawed. Maybe our own mental gymnastics are, too.

[notin]

I think taking health and games played into an account is an asset. Let’s see batting average do that...

[moonslav59]

I think taking health and games played into an account is an asset. Let’s see batting average do that...

Exactamundo!

Even my favorite stat to use, OPS, does not do that.

(And I often cite PAs when listing our team's OPS numbers.)

[S5Dewey]

Harmony does it daily...

I guess I missed that since I don't waste my time on troll's posts.

[oldtimer]

Isn't that a little unrealistically rosy?

It isn't a prediction of how we will do in any one year. It is the setting of goals to direct our thinking going forward. If it is clear the best way to make 2020 competitive is to compromise 2021 forward, then it becomes a tradeoff. We need a front office who can make those tradeoffs so that improving the farm, keeping people in the seats and having a progressively stronger team without totally dismissing 2020 are weighed. I personally would set a pay scale guidelines covering all the positions on the team and try to stick to those guidelines in agreeing to contracts. Right now the contracts tend to be out of balance and we may need to wait some of those out to return to full competitiveness.

[notin]

I guess I missed that since I don't waste my time on troll's posts.

Sometimes if he is comparing two players, he also incorporates their ages or compares them at the same ages. He’s been doing it since BDC. Remember his unpopular Will Middlebrooks/Mark Reynolds comparisons?

[S5Dewey]

Sometimes if he is comparing two players, he also incorporates their ages or compares them at the same ages. He’s been doing it since BDC. Remember his unpopular Will Middlebrooks/Mark Reynolds comparisons?

I don't, but it's ok. I do remember that he was posting as Hill back then. Ironic that a troll would choose the name Harmony though. Hmmm... subliminal messaging, maybe? :)

[harmony]

A harmonious poster respectfully offers substance free of personal attacks, name-calling, profanity and unfounded allegations.

[moonslav59]

Here are the Sox WAR/Gm numbers:

.045 Bogey
.042 Devers
.037 Betts
.029 Vaz
.025 JD
.023 Beni
.019 Holt (just 62 games)
.013 Marco (just 38 games)
.007 Chavis
.007 JBJ
.006 Moreland (just 66 games)

WAR per IP
.028 Workman (58 IP)
.024 Sale
.024 Taylor (38 IP)
.022 Price
.021 DHern (23 IP)
.014 ERod
.008 Porcello
.007 Lakins
(All others are at 0 or below)

[moonslav59]

Here are the Sox WAR/Gm numbers:

.045 Bogey
.042 Devers
.037 Betts
.029 Vaz
.025 JD
.023 Beni
.019 Holt (just 62 games)
.013 Marco (just 38 games)
.007 Chavis
.007 JBJ
.006 Moreland (just 66 games)

WAR per IP
.028 Workman (58 IP)
.024 Sale
.024 Taylor (38 IP)
.022 Price
.021 DHern (23 IP)
.014 ERod
.008 Porcello
.007 Lakins
(All others are at 0 or below)



Going by my "eye test," the only rankings I might take issue with (beyond those with tiny sample sizes) would be Vaz over JD and Chavis slightly ahead of JBJ. ERod looks a little low, but this is per inning not a cumulative value list.

[notin]

Whom could the Red Sox trade to Seattle for Keon Broxton, who should have three years of team control after this season?

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/broxtke01.shtml

He's been released twice this year. Do you think he suddenly has trade value?

[moonslav59]

He's been released twice this year. Do you think he suddenly has trade value?

This cracks me up!

[kenmeister]

I'm at the point in the season now where I only care about ERod starts. He has an outside shot of making 20, but even making 18 would be wonderful. Other than that, I'm watching the RBI and batting races, and that's about it.

[harmony]

He's been released twice this year. Do you think he suddenly has trade value?
Why would Seattle give away three years of Keon Broxton when the Mariners need outfielders to bridge the gap to touted prospects Jarred Kelenic, Julio Rodriguez and Kyle Lewis?

At least one poster thinks Keon Broxton has value:


Personally I would love for the Sox to get Keon Broxton. Offense is inconsistent. Glove is excellent. Not enough “O”’s in “Smoooooth” to describe him out there...

[moonslav59]

Why would Seattle give away three years of Keon Broxton when the Mariners need outfielders to bridge the gap to touted prospects Jarred Kelenic, Julio Rodriguez and Kyle Lewis?

At least one poster thinks Keon Broxton has value:

The point was about how much value a guy who has been DFA's twice this year has.

Last year, you wanted JBJ.

How about JBJ for Broxton and a prospect?

[notin]

Why would Seattle give away three years of Keon Broxton when the Mariners need outfielders to bridge the gap to touted prospects Jarred Kelenic, Julio Rodriguez and Kyle Lewis?

At least one poster thinks Keon Broxton has value:

If the Mariners want anything better than Brian Johnson, the Sox can look elsewhere. Broxton was DFA'd by the Mets and Orioles already this year - two organizations that needed temporary outfield hep and decided Broxton was not it.

www.baseballtradevalues gives Broxton a surplus trade value of $0.5mill, which is less than Chris Owings. I think if the Sox offered just about anything, the Mainers would probably accept it. And if they didn't, the Red Sox would probably look elsewhere. They really might not even need to fill CF if they shift Betts or Benintendi to CF...

[Slasher9]

if the Sox shift benintendi to CF the Sox will need to fill CF position......

[Bellhorn04]

www.baseballtradevalues gives Broxton a surplus trade value of $0.5mill, which is less than Chris Owings.

I thought it was peculiar that harmony didn't refer to Broxton's surplus trade value...

[harmony]

If the Mariners want anything better than Brian Johnson, the Sox can look elsewhere. Broxton was DFA'd by the Mets and Orioles already this year - two organizations that needed temporary outfield hep and decided Broxton was not it.

www.baseballtradevalues gives Broxton a surplus trade value of $0.5mill, which is less than Chris Owings. I think if the Sox offered just about anything, the Mainers would probably accept it. And if they didn't, the Red Sox would probably look elsewhere. They really might not even need to fill CF if they shift Betts or Benintendi to CF...
The point was that a poster recommended the Red Sox acquire a player under another team's control for three more seasons. Unless that team releases Keon Broxton (which is a possibility), the Red Sox would need to trade for him.

And the Mariners may need Broxton more than the Sox do. The Red Sox should probably look elsewhere.

[notin]

if the Sox shift benintendi to CF the Sox will need to fill CF position......

I don't exepct him to be JBJ out there. But it's not like every flyball to CF will automatically become a hit, either. With Betts in RF covering a significant amount of territory, Bradley has been somehwta held back defensively anyway, as he simply doesn't have as many opportunities as a lot of other CFs.

But then a lot of that assumes the Sox go for the full reset (per some rumor somewhere), and they need to replace him. I could see them getting another CF or a corner OF and shifting either player over...

[notin]

The point was that a poster recommended the Red Sox acquire a player under another team's control for three more seasons. Unless that team releases Keon Broxton (which is a possibility), the Red Sox would need to trade for him.

And the Mariners may need Broxton more than the Sox do. The Red Sox should probably look elsewhere.

There's actually a decent chance Seattle decides their "gap" to their prospects can be filled by Santana, Smith and Haniger. Broxton's .514 OPS in Seattle isn't screaming "KEEP ME"...

[notin]

I thought it was peculiar that harmony didn't refer to Broxton's surplus trade value...

It was not a point in his favor...

[moonslav59]

if the Sox shift benintendi to CF the Sox will need to fill CF position......

...yes, when they move him back to LF after the failure in center.

[harmony]

There's actually a decent chance Seattle decides their "gap" to their prospects can be filled by Santana, Smith and Haniger. Broxton's .514 OPS in Seattle isn't screaming "KEEP ME"...
Domingo Santana is unlikely to be patrolling the outfield for Seattle in 2020.

"Broxton's .514 OPS in Seattle isn't screaming" the Red Sox "COVET ME.":)

[moonslav59]

Domingo Santana is unlikely to be patrolling the outfield for Seattle in 2020.

"Broxton's .514 OPS in Seattle isn't screaming" the Red Sox "COVET ME.":)

Okay, it's 529 in 2019 over 200 or so PAs.

JBJ's was .520 after 174 PAs this year.

One will make $10.5M next year: the other maybe $600K.

We are just talking about possible options for replacing JBJ in CF without losing anything on defense. It's a way to save $10M.

Yes, we may have to give you Brian Johnson or some other guy we are thinking of DFA'ing, but so what?

[harmony]

Okay, it's 529 in 2019 over 200 or so PAs.

JBJ's was .520 after 174 PAs this year.

One will make $10.5M next year: the other maybe $600K.

We are just talking about possible options for replacing JBJ in CF without losing anything on defense. It's a way to save $10M.

Yes, we may have to give you Brian Johnson or some other guy we are thinking of DFA'ing, but so what?
This poster did not bring Keon Broxton's name into this thread. His inclusion was merely odd because Broxton is under another team's control.

[moonslav59]

This poster did not bring Keon Broxton's name into this thread. His inclusion was merely odd because Broxton is under another team's control.

The discussion was about FA CF'ers AND player felt to be available or could be available at a low return cost.

Clearly a guy who was DFA'd twice may be easy to trade for.

[harmony]

The discussion was about FA CF'ers AND player felt to be available or could be available at a low return cost.

Clearly a guy who was DFA'd twice may be easy to trade for.
The follow-up question was essentially: How easy?

[moonslav59]

The follow-up question was essentially: How easy?

Not really.

He could be DFA'd again.

His return cost in trade should be between very little and extremely little.

If you want to debate whether it might be Brian Johnson vs Hector Velazquez, then I'll stay out of that discussion.

You never answered my question. Last year, you wanted JBJ. Would you trade Broxton for JBJ?

[moonslav59]

Sox Pitching with and eye towards 2020:
(Listed by IP with ERA)

Likely Returning
161 ERod 3.92
147 Sale 4.40
105 Price 4.36
65 Walden 3.31
58 Workman 2.02
50 Barnes 4.32
46 Brasier 4.14
39 Eovaldi 6.64
38 Hembree 4.06
38 Taylor 2.87
23 DHern 3.47

Unknown Status for 2020 (traded?):
48 Brewer 4.32
48 Velaz 5.81
36 Cashn 6.94
31 Weber 4.35
29 Johns 6.83
13 Lakins 4.05
13 Shawa 8.53
6 Wright 8.53
4 Poyner 15.75

Likely Not Returning
144 Porcello 5.49
19 Thornburg 7.71

[moonslav59]

Sox Everyday Players with an Eye Towards 2020:
Listed by PAs with OPS

Likely Returning:
612 Betts .888
573 Bogey .939
569 Devers .956
544 JD M .960
531 Beni .819
424 Vaz .803
382 Chavis .766
196 Holt .848
119 Travis .770
87 Marco .824
22 Lin .573

Unknown Status (maybe traded?):
467 JBJ .718
159 Leon .558
21 Pedey .243

Likely Not Returning:
240 Moreland .832
174 Nunez .548
99 Pearce .503
29 Swihart .695
17 Owings .310

[harmony]

Not really.

He could be DFA'd again.

His return cost in trade should be between very little and extremely little.

If you want to debate whether it might be Brian Johnson vs Hector Velazquez, then I'll stay out of that discussion.

You never answered my question. Last year, you wanted JBJ. Would you trade Broxton for JBJ?
The Mariners are unlikely to do that trade because Jackie Bradley Jr. still does not fit within Seattle's window of contention:


harmony harmony is online now
MVP

Join Date
Apr 2016
Posts
2,867
Quote Originally Posted by notin View Post
If this team keeps playing like this, quite a few players should be gone by August, including Bradley...
Would anyone trade nearly two years of Jackie Bradley Jr. for nearly four years of Seattle center fielder Mallex Smith?

Bradley currently has an OPS+ of 14 and a bWAR of a negative 0.5 while Smith has an OPS+ of 40 and a bWAR of a negative 0.8.

I doubt the Mariners, with their extended window, would do that trade.

https://www.talksox.com/forum/threads/19224-The-annual-Jackie-Bradley-Jr-thread-(2019-Edition)?p=1236332&highlight=harmony#post1236332

[Donnie Sadler was short]

For 2020, it’s a safe bet we know who 4 of the starters are.

The questions surround:
the fifth starter
1b/2b/Chavis
bullpen
center field

We do? I can only count E-Rod & Price..Sale & E-vo are big ? marks IMHO

[moonslav59]

The Mariners are unlikely to do that trade because Jackie Bradley Jr. still does not fit within Seattle's window of contention:


https://www.talksox.com/forum/threads/19224-The-annual-Jackie-Bradley-Jr-thread-(2019-Edition)?p=1236332&highlight=harmony#post1236332

The great defensive JBJ in the spacious Seattle CF would instantly turn you into a contender!

[notin]

The Mariners are unlikely to do that trade because Jackie Bradley Jr. still does not fit within Seattle's window of contention:





The Mariners haven't seen the post-season in 18 years. Who does fit into their window of contention? Edgar Martinez' grandsons?

[harmony]

The great defensive JBJ in the spacious Seattle CF would instantly turn you into a contender!
Or the "great defensive JBJ" could turn the Red Sox into a contender!

[harmony]

The Mariners haven't seen the post-season in 18 years. Who does fit into their window of contention? Edgar Martinez' grandsons?
Seattle players under years of team control:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1IL-Jgr8BwgBDgg03nPtSgsQ1mvAuzHkG6GDlWvSGUzw/pubhtml

... plus top prospects:

https://www.lookoutlanding.com/2019/8/20/20812419/industry-experts-weigh-in-on-mariners-top-prospects

... from a well regarded farm system:

https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2019-in-season-prospect-list/farm-ranking?sort=-1,1&type=100&filter=&pos=&team=

The Mariners were in contention for much of last season, finishing with more wins than the Red Sox are projected to post this year despite baseball's highest payroll:

https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2019-mlb-predictions/

[oldtimer]

Sox Pitching with and eye towards 2020:
(Listed by IP with ERA)

Likely Returning
161 ERod 3.92
147 Sale 4.40
105 Price 4.36
65 Walden 3.31
58 Workman 2.02
50 Barnes 4.32
46 Brasier 4.14
39 Eovaldi 6.64
38 Hembree 4.06
38 Taylor 2.87
23 DHern 3.47

Unknown Status for 2020 (traded?):
48 Brewer 4.32
48 Velaz 5.81
36 Cashn 6.94
31 Weber 4.35
29 Johns 6.83
13 Lakins 4.05
13 Shawa 8.53
6 Wright 8.53
4 Poyner 15.75

Likely Not Returning
144 Porcello 5.49
19 Thornburg 7.71




To reset in 2020 while remaining somewhat competitive we may well need to find low cost pitching since Price, Sale and Eovaldi will probably be with us but are a question maark going forward. Our three farm pitchers who might help are DHern, Houch and Mata. All three should get a look in spring training in the starter role. One or more of them might be better than Johnson for instance.

I am not enamored of Barnes or Hembree. They do throw hard, but both had very inconsistent years. We may need to look elsewhere for BP help.

[oldtimer]

Sox Everyday Players with an Eye Towards 2020:
Listed by PAs with OPS

Likely Returning:
612 Betts .888
573 Bogey .939
569 Devers .956
544 JD M .960
531 Beni .819
424 Vaz .803
382 Chavis .766
196 Holt .848
119 Travis .770
87 Marco .824
22 Lin .573

Unknown Status (maybe traded?):
467 JBJ .718
159 Leon .558
21 Pedey .243

Likely Not Returning:
240 Moreland .832
174 Nunez .548
99 Pearce .503
29 Swihart .695
17 Owings .310


Again, if we want to reset in 2020 (depends on the Sox business plan), we will need to look for lower cost players from the farm. My view is Dalbec has the best chance with Duran nearly ready and we may well need a full time outfield replacement and Chatham who is capable of playing short and second and is a line drive type hitter. Others in the farm aren't ready at this point in my estimation.

The reset, if it comes, may require JBJ to be traded, and the utility infield positions are not that strong so that C havis, Travis, Marco and Lin may find themselve competing with Dalbec and Chatham. I like Holt enough to keep him and hope that he can stand the wear and tear of a full season.

[moonslav59]

To reset in 2020 while remaining somewhat competitive we may well need to find low cost pitching since Price, Sale and Eovaldi will probably be with us but are a question maark going forward. Our three farm pitchers who might help are DHern, Houch and Mata. All three should get a look in spring training in the starter role. One or more of them might be better than Johnson for instance.

I am not enamored of Barnes or Hembree. They do throw hard, but both had very inconsistent years. We may need to look elsewhere for BP help.

Barnes was actually on a long stretch of improving every year until 2019.

Hembree was looking as good as ever, until his 2019 injury.

Both should not be traded when their stock is low. Keep them for 2020, and maybe we trade them at the deadline, assuming we are resetting or out of contention.

[moonslav59]

Again, if we want to reset in 2020 (depends on the Sox business plan), we will need to look for lower cost players from the farm. My view is Dalbec has the best chance with Duran nearly ready and we may well need a full time outfield replacement and Chatham who is capable of playing short and second and is a line drive type hitter. Others in the farm aren't ready at this point in my estimation.

The reset, if it comes, may require JBJ to be traded, and the utility infield positions are not that strong so that C havis, Travis, Marco and Lin may find themselve competing with Dalbec and Chatham. I like Holt enough to keep him and hope that he can stand the wear and tear of a full season.

I agree, and although Holt has had injury issues, I'd try to keep him at a low cost.

I'd play Chavis, Marco and Travis just about every game from now on. Bring up Dalbec, Chatham and Lin in September- maybe even Ockimey.

[Bellhorn04]

I have no idea what the team is going to do about Mookie. It's almost hard to believe that we're facing the prospect of him being in another team's uniform for the last 8 or 10 years of a likely HOF career, but it's a very real possibility.

[moonslav59]

I have no idea what the team is going to do about Mookie. It's almost hard to believe that we're facing the prospect of him being in another team's uniform for the last 8 or 10 years of a likely HOF career, but it's a very real possibility.

I'd hate to lose Betts, and I'm on record with suggesting higher offers than just about anyone else is willing to give, but if we lose him, it's not like we won't spend that money elsewhere. We'll end up with something special, but I'd sure hate to see him go.

[notin]

I have no idea what the team is going to do about Mookie. It's almost hard to believe that we're facing the prospect of him being in another team's uniform for the last 8 or 10 years of a likely HOF career, but it's a very real possibility.

The Notin Plan is very simple

1. Reset
2. Extend Mookie after 2020 one way or another.


No idea what the Dombrowski/Romero/Whoever Plan is...

[moonslav59]

The Notin Plan is very simple

1. Reset
2. Extend Mookie after 2020 one way or another.


No idea what the Dombrowski/Romero/Whoever Plan is...

You stole my plan!

(My plan does not include DD as the GM.)

[OH FOY!]

The Notin Plan is very simple

1. Reset
2. Extend Mookie after 2020 one way or another.


No idea what the Dombrowski/Romero/Whoever Plan is...

Start with your steps for Reset. Thanks, and if you say Reset, is that for Payroll? Because the Sox Payroll will be high too for 2021 before you start the season. With a very, very weak Farm in Pitching Prospects.
Pitching cost money.

[OH FOY!]

Price turns 36 during the 2021 season. 32 million, and 1 more year after that. Make sure your factoring Age when resetting.

[mvp 78]

Barnes was actually on a long stretch of improving every year until 2019.

Hembree was looking as good as ever, until his 2019 injury.

Both should not be traded when their stock is low. Keep them for 2020, and maybe we trade them at the deadline, assuming we are resetting or out of contention.

Yup

[OH FOY!]

One last thing what is the contract you think will get a Mookie Betts contract is for 2021?

[Bellhorn04]

One last thing what is the contract you think will get a Mookie Betts contract is for 2021?

Probably something like 8 * 32.5 = 260.

[moonslav59]

Start with your steps for Reset. Thanks, and if you say Reset, is that for Payroll? Because the Sox Payroll will be high too for 2021 before you start the season. With a very, very weak Farm in Pitching Prospects.
Pitching cost money.

Rest for 2020 by getting under the first luxury tax line. It would likely mean trading or non tendering JBJ and signing no free agents this winter, unless we trade more salary or do not offer some arbs.

Then, in theory, we can spend large for 2021 (Betts?) and will have had 2 years of better draft positions and higher International draft pools to help start the farm rebuild.

We can't guess wrong on almost anything between now and 2021 to make this a 1-2 year down time (cliff).

[moonslav59]

Probably something like 8 * 32.5 = 260.

Or $310M/10

[OH FOY!]

Probably something like 8 * 32.5 = 260.

Pretty good guess.

[OH FOY!]

Betts will be 37 years old, going into last season, getting 31 Million.
Where do you think he'll play? RF?
These are the contracts that kills teams. Years its not the money.

[moonslav59]

Betts will be 37 years old, going into last season, getting 31 Million.
Where do you think he'll play? RF?
These are the contracts that kills teams. Years its not the money.

Yup, and the GM is long gone by the 7th year of the deal (or earlier).

[moonslav59]

Possible in-system options for filling some gaps in 2020:

SP:
S Wright
D Hernandez
B Johnson
H Velazquez
T Houck
D Reyes
M Shawaryn

RP:
(See SP'er list)
Feltman
Lakins
Poyner
Kelley
Bazardo
Gorst
Joan Martinez

1B:
Chavis (2B/3B)
Dalbec (3B)
Travis (LF)
Ockimey (DH)

2B:
Chavis (1B/3B)
Marco (SS/3B)
Lin (SS/3B/OF)
Chatham (SS/3B)

CF:
Duran
Lin
Travis LF (Beni>CF)

[moonslav59]

On Pedroia...

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/08/latest-on-dustin-pedroia-2.html?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=facebook

[moonslav59]

The Projected 2020 Roster (Assuming no trades, DFA's or FA Signings)

SP: Sale, Price, ERod, Eovaldi, D Hernandez, Wright, Johnson or Velazquez
RP: Workman, Barnes, Hembree, Taylor, Walden (Wright/Johnson/Velaz.)
C: Vaz & Leon (Centeno?)
1B: Chavis & Travis, Dalbec or Ockimey
2B: Marco & Lin (Chatham?)
SS: Bogey
3B: Devers
LF: Beni (Travis)
CF: JBJ? (Beni/Duran)
RF: Betts
DH: JD

[notin]

Start with your steps for Reset. Thanks, and if you say Reset, is that for Payroll? Because the Sox Payroll will be high too for 2021 before you start the season. With a very, very weak Farm in Pitching Prospects.
Pitching cost money.

My steps for reset?

1. Non-tender JBJ. Possibly bring him back if he takes a lower salary. Otherwise move on.
2. Deal Barnes for pitching or an outfielder.
3. Deal Dalbec for whatever Barnes doesn't get.

Some trades that work out and actually make sense on baseballtradevalues.com include deals like Barnes to the Cubs for Ian Happ (where he is blocked an an OF, but CHC could move him back to 2B), or to Colorado for Raimel Tapia (who is blocked on all fronts). Dalbec to Miami for Jose Urena also works out and actually makes sense for both teams.

I'm sure other deals for Barnes could be found that are even better. Everyone needs cheaper bullpen help...

[moonslav59]

My steps for reset?

1. Non-tender JBJ. Possibly bring him back if he takes a lower salary. Otherwise move on.
2. Deal Barnes for pitching or an outfielder.
3. Deal Dalbec for whatever Barnes doesn't get.

Some trades that work out and actually make sense on baseballtradevalues.com include deals like Barnes to the Cubs for Ian Happ (where he is blocked an an OF, but CHC could move him back to 2B), or to Colorado for Raimel Tapia (who is blocked on all fronts). Dalbec to Miami for Jose Urena also works out and actually makes sense for both teams.

I'm sure other deals for Barnes could be found that are even better. Everyone needs cheaper bullpen help...

I think Barnes is due to bounce back and up his (trade) value for the 2020 deadline.

Assuming a reset, we do need to think about trading any players with just 1-2 years of control left.

Last Arb:
Betts
JBJ
Wright
Workman

2 arbs:
ERod
Barnes
Hembree

Of course, I'd like to keep Betts & ERod by extending them....

[moonslav59]

I'm wondering about our plans for Chavis.

While we need a 1Bman and 2Bman, and Chavis can play both, I'm wondering about trading him while his stock is high. He reminds me too much of Middlebrooks.

People have been ragging on JBJ for his awful slumps, but somehow Chavis has slid under the radar of the same criticism.

.237 12 45 in last 324 PAs (.296 OBP and .688 OPS)

.313 6 13 in his first 58 PAs (.446 OBP and 1.236 OPS)

To me, Dalbec can probably gives about the same as Chavis has since May 4th- maybe better. If not, we have Ockimey and Travis to play 1B. Marco, Lin and Chatham can battle for 2B.

My thought is trading Chavis could bring back more than trading Dalbec, as notin suggested.

Then again, keeping all our prospects may make the most sense.

[S5Dewey]

I've gotta say, and I know I'm not going to make any friends with this, but....

Good God. You want to let a GG CF'er who's (probably) going to hit 20 HR's go either by non-tendering him or by trading him for PROSPECTS?? If either of you guys ever have anything to sell I want to be there early because you're pushovers!

Cue up the obscure GG'ers who've been traded for prospects in the past 50 years, and you know what? I DON'T CARE! If I couldn't get a respectable pitcher for JBJ I'd keep him. Of course, I'd keep him anyway.

[moonslav59]

I've gotta say, and I know I'm not going to make any friends with this, but....

Good God. You want to let a GG CF'er who's (probably) going to hit 20 HR's go either by non-tendering him or by trading him for PROSPECTS?? If either of you guys ever have anything to sell I want to be there early because you're pushovers!

Cue up the obscure GG'ers who've been traded for prospects in the past 50 years, and you know what? I DON'T CARE! If I couldn't get a respectable pitcher for JBJ I'd keep him. Of course, I'd keep him anyway.

My plan would include finding a younger, very low cost CF'er who can filed as good or better than JBJ and is on the up age curve.

[S5Dewey]

My plan would include finding a younger, very low cost CF'er who can filed as good or better than JBJ and is on the up age curve.

I don't see why that won't work. MLB is full of guys who are as good or better than JBJ. I know that because whenever someone 'new' comes to the broadcast booth then NEVER rave about how good JBJ is.

Oh... wait...

[harmony]

I'm wondering about our plans for Chavis.

While we need a 1Bman and 2Bman, and Chavis can play both, I'm wondering about trading him while his stock is high. He reminds me too much of Middlebrooks.

People have been ragging on JBJ for his awful slumps, but somehow Chavis has slid under the radar of the same criticism.

.237 12 45 in last 324 PAs (.296 OBP and .688 OPS)

.313 6 13 in his first 58 PAs (.446 OBP and 1.236 OPS)

To me, Dalbec can probably gives about the same as Chavis has since May 4th- maybe better. If not, we have Ockimey and Travis to play 1B. Marco, Lin and Chatham can battle for 2B.

My thought is trading Chavis could bring back more than trading Dalbec, as notin suggested.

Then again, keeping all our prospects may make the most sense.

According to this website, Michael Chavis carries a surplus value of $12.1 million and Bobby Dalbec a surplus value of $13.2 million:

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trade-simulator/

[oldtimer]

I'm wondering about our plans for Chavis.

While we need a 1Bman and 2Bman, and Chavis can play both, I'm wondering about trading him while his stock is high. He reminds me too much of Middlebrooks.

People have been ragging on JBJ for his awful slumps, but somehow Chavis has slid under the radar of the same criticism.

.237 12 45 in last 324 PAs (.296 OBP and .688 OPS)

.313 6 13 in his first 58 PAs (.446 OBP and 1.236 OPS)

To me, Dalbec can probably gives about the same as Chavis has since May 4th- maybe better. If not, we have Ockimey and Travis to play 1B. Marco, Lin and Chatham can battle for 2B.

My thought is trading Chavis could bring back more than trading Dalbec, as notin suggested.

Then again, keeping all our prospects may make the most sense.


I think they keep Chavis, at least until Spring training of 2020. His known deficiency is hitting the high fastball. It is possible he can learn to hit that better since he is inexperienced enough so there is room to grow. He has a big and long swing and may need to modify it some. If they determine he still can't hit it then, they can try the trade route. Imagine the criticism if the kid works out and hits 35 HRs and has an OPS of 900 for another club.

Dalbec is also worth a hard look as is Chatham, who could handle SS should Bogie sustain an injury during the season. With Travis, Marco and Lin we know what we have. Still think Ockimey is a lesser version of Dalbec and not ready for the big time.

[jacksonianmarch]

JBJ is getting by on past performance. He’s a step slower this year and the metrics bear it out. While he makes incredible plays, most of the younger CFers are making those plays without a dive or a crash into the wall. He’s experiencing the natural progression of being at a speed demon position. So now that his defense is no longer elite, his bat needs to carry and outside of a couple hot weeks, it doesn’t carry. He’s due to make 8 figures next year and you’d expect the defense to either stay similar or drop from this year. Has he been an elite defender? Absolutely. Is he still, no. Hence, he’s gonna get dealt or non tendered. The Sox are not winning a title with him this year, so they can afford to see what they can get for him since they need to reshuffle the financial deck to afford some pitching

[moonslav59]

I don't see why that won't work. MLB is full of guys who are as good or better than JBJ. I know that because whenever someone 'new' comes to the broadcast booth then NEVER rave about how good JBJ is.

Oh... wait...

Saying we can find another great defensive CF'er in no way lessens the greatness of JBJ.

He's not the only fantastic defender in MLB. He is also not likely to get any better going forward, at his age, although some have stayed very good long into their 30's.

[moonslav59]

According to this website, Michael Chavis carries a surplus value of $12.1 million and Bobby Dalbec a surplus value of $13.2 million:

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trade-simulator/

I thought they might be pretty close.

[moonslav59]

I think they keep Chavis, at least until Spring training of 2020. His known deficiency is hitting the high fastball. It is possible he can learn to hit that better since he is inexperienced enough so there is room to grow. He has a big and long swing and may need to modify it some. If they determine he still can't hit it then, they can try the trade route. Imagine the criticism if the kid works out and hits 35 HRs and has an OPS of 900 for another club.

Dalbec is also worth a hard look as is Chatham, who could handle SS should Bogie sustain an injury during the season. With Travis, Marco and Lin we know what we have. Still think Ockimey is a lesser version of Dalbec and not ready for the big time.

By the time they "determine he still can't hit," the rest of the league will have as well.

We waited too long to trade Middy. I'm not saying Chavis will be the next Middy, but I wanted to float the possibility out there.

Chavis is now a more known commodity than Dalbec, so I'm not sure which one, if any, we might or should try to trade.

[moonslav59]

JBJ is getting by on past performance. He’s a step slower this year and the metrics bear it out. While he makes incredible plays, most of the younger CFers are making those plays without a dive or a crash into the wall. He’s experiencing the natural progression of being at a speed demon position. So now that his defense is no longer elite, his bat needs to carry and outside of a couple hot weeks, it doesn’t carry. He’s due to make 8 figures next year and you’d expect the defense to either stay similar or drop from this year. Has he been an elite defender? Absolutely. Is he still, no. Hence, he’s gonna get dealt or non tendered. The Sox are not winning a title with him this year, so they can afford to see what they can get for him since they need to reshuffle the financial deck to afford some pitching

It might depend on what your definition of "elite" means, but he is still pretty damn good, if not great on D. Using metrics for OF'ers involves smaller sample sizes than IF'ers, and who plays next to you factors into the metrics as well.

Here are some sample sizes of the larger variety:

JBJ: UZR/150, DRS, Inning in CF

First 4 seasons: 9.5 (8th in MLB), 27, 2695
Last 4 seasons: 5.8 (10th in MLB), 20, 4725

2015-2016: 7.0 (9th), 14, 1600
2017-2019: 4.8 (9th), 16, 3370

2018-2019: 4.5 (10th) which ranks him higher than DeShields, Trout, Hicks and Pillar.

As you can see, while his UZR/150 and DRS per innings declined, he has stayed ranked 8th to 9th in most 3-4 season sample sizes, which are the sample sizes suggested to be used by the creators of these metrics.

[OH FOY!]

Here's my prediction on Dalbec, 600 AB's -200 K's, in the Majors.
He has 132 K's in 445 AB's for Portland and Pawtucket, wait till he sees Major League Pitching.
Hope he cuts down on swings and misses.

Here's the bigger question. Henry was rated the worst owner over the 5 Major Sports Owners. Even the Revs Kraft is rated higher, in a Poll in New England. (Only NE States, this poll was asked)
Main reason, the 2019 Sox Collapse, and not going all in at the Trade Deadline.
How do you think the NE Fans will handle a Reset, after this year? If the Fans wanted to go all in at the Deadline. Interesting Off-Season for sure.
He has to get rid of Dombrowski. Rated the worst GM in this poll.
What a difference a year makes.
Both were 2nd last year.
I think right now, the Sox have to see the status on Sale 1st. Then make decisions.

[Bellhorn04]

Here's the bigger question. Henry was rated the worst owner over the 5 Major Sports Owners. Even the Revs Kraft is rated higher, in a Poll in New England. (Only NE States, this poll was asked)
Main reason, the 2019 Sox Collapse, and not going all in at the Trade Deadline.
How do you think the NE Fans will handle a Reset, after this year? If the Fans wanted to go all in at the Deadline. Interesting Off-Season for sure.
He has to get rid of Dombrowski. Rated the worst GM in this poll.
What a difference a year makes.
Both were 2nd last year.


Henry worst owner? That is absurd, hilarious and many other similar adjectives.

[OH FOY!]

Henry worst owner? That is absurd, hilarious and many other similar adjectives.

Like I said it was voted here in NE. Where do you live? Celtics was #4, Wick.

[OH FOY!]

Poll went like this.
1) Kraft - Patriots
2) Jacobson- Bruins
3) Kraft- Revolution
4) Wickersham - Celtics
5) Henry - Sox
This was Broadcasted on NBC Sports Boston, yesterday. Henry has rabbit ears too, he listens.

[moonslav59]

Here's my prediction on Dalbec, 600 AB's -200 K's, in the Majors.
He has 132 K's in 445 AB's for Portland and Pawtucket, wait till he sees Major League Pitching.
Hope he cuts down on swings and misses.


Okay, but Chavis already has 144 Ks in just 448 PAs this year in MLB + AAA, so what's the difference?

[Bellhorn04]

Poll went like this.
1) Kraft - Patriots
2) Jacobson- Bruins
3) Kraft- Revolution
4) Wickersham - Celtics
5) Henry - Sox

I'm guessing the results generally have a pretty high correlation to the standings for that year LOL

[OH FOY!]

Okay, but Chavis already has 144 Ks in just 448 PAs this year in MLB + AAA, so what's the difference?

Major Leagues? How many at bats does Dalbec have in the Majors? Your comparing Double AA and Triple AAA, to the Majors?

[OH FOY!]

I'm guessing the results generally have a pretty high correlation to the standings for that year LOL

Of Course, you see how much the NE Fans are disappointed in Ownership after just 1 year, and mostly because Henry didn't go all in this year, how do you think they will feel, if they get cheaper?
Just wondering.

[Slasher9]

JBJ is getting by on past performance. He’s a step slower this year and the metrics bear it out. While he makes incredible plays, most of the younger CFers are making those plays without a dive or a crash into the wall. He’s experiencing the natural progression of being at a speed demon position. So now that his defense is no longer elite, his bat needs to carry and outside of a couple hot weeks, it doesn’t carry. He’s due to make 8 figures next year and you’d expect the defense to either stay similar or drop from this year. Has he been an elite defender? Absolutely. Is he still, no. Hence, he’s gonna get dealt or non tendered. The Sox are not winning a title with him this year, so they can afford to see what they can get for him since they need to reshuffle the financial deck to afford some pitching

amazing. everything you just said is wrong.

[Slasher9]

john henry is the greatest owner in new england sports history and its not even close.

[oldtimer]

john henry is the greatest owner in new england sports history and its not even close.

John Henry did go all in this year and the payroll is approaching the 3rd tier of the competitive balance tax. I for one think he did the right thing by keeping DD from spending still more this year. Resetting next year looks like the right thing to do as does finding a new GM and President of baseball operations. We need a new business plan and someone with the right talent to pull it off. It may hurt for a year or two but it is necessary to become fully competitive again. I give zero blame to the Henry ownership

[jacksonianmarch]

amazing. everything you just said is wrong.

care to refute it with data, because the data is on my side

[S5Dewey]

JBJ is getting by on past performance. He’s a step slower this year and the metrics bear it out.

Ridiculous. We've discussed the metrics regarding JBJ ad nauseum here and have come to the conclusion that having Betts beside him has skewed the metrics regarding JBJ.

While he makes incredible plays, most of the younger CFers are making those plays without a dive or a crash into the wall.

Most? Really? Have you seen "most of the younger CF'ers play? And BTW, he makes those plays without "a dive or a crash into the wall" - unless it's necessary to make those plays that "most" CF'ers don't make.

He’s experiencing the natural progression of being at a speed demon position. So now that his defense is no longer elite, his bat needs to carry and outside of a couple hot weeks, it doesn’t carry.

Basic straw man argument. You say he's no longer "elite" (Which is BS, BTW) and then try to make a case to prove it.


He’s due to make 8 figures next year and you’d expect the defense to either stay similar or drop from this year.

I certainly can live with his elite defense even if it stays similar. Given your success at making predictions I'd take your prediction that he may drop from this year with a grain of salt.


Has he been an elite defender? Absolutely. Is he still, no. Hence, he’s gonna get dealt or non tendered.

See my comment above, Nostradamus.

The Sox are not winning a title with him this year, so they can afford to see what they can get for him since they need to reshuffle the financial deck to afford some pitching.

They could, but DD is smarter than that. He's going to hold onto JBJ for at least one more year until the situation with Mookie gets settled. Possibly then he'll trade him, but Dd loves his up the middle defense and he's not going to give up JBJ for three minor league players.


Maybe JBJ isn't an "elite defender" when viewed through pinstripe glasses but it sure seems like every broadcaster I've seen or heard still salivates at his defense. I tend to take the word of people whose career is in baseball rather than a Yankees fan whose goal is to see the Sox finally become a team the Yankees can beat.

[notin]

I don't see why that won't work. MLB is full of guys who are as good or better than JBJ. I know that because whenever someone 'new' comes to the broadcast booth then NEVER rave about how good JBJ is.

Oh... wait...

They also rave about Kevin Pillar, Kevin Kiermeier, Byron Buxton, Billy Hamilton, Lorenzo Cain, and most of all, Ramon Laureano. In fact, I don't think any CF gets or deserves more raves than Laureano, who is a game changer out there.

I've even heard broadcasters rave about Adam Engel on defense, though I'm not sure why. He looks kind of meh to me. I mean, he's OK out there. But not rave-worthy...

[notin]

I'm wondering about our plans for Chavis.

While we need a 1Bman and 2Bman, and Chavis can play both, I'm wondering about trading him while his stock is high. He reminds me too much of Middlebrooks.

People have been ragging on JBJ for his awful slumps, but somehow Chavis has slid under the radar of the same criticism.

.237 12 45 in last 324 PAs (.296 OBP and .688 OPS)

.313 6 13 in his first 58 PAs (.446 OBP and 1.236 OPS)

To me, Dalbec can probably gives about the same as Chavis has since May 4th- maybe better. If not, we have Ockimey and Travis to play 1B. Marco, Lin and Chatham can battle for 2B.

My thought is trading Chavis could bring back more than trading Dalbec, as notin suggested.

Then again, keeping all our prospects may make the most sense.


Maybe, since he is not a pitcher, Dombrowski will make a move for the recently-released Scooter Gennett. Scooter is having a horrible season after missing the first 3 months, but in 2017-18, he did have an .859OPS with 50 HRs. He is a free agent after 2019, but whoever signs him for the remainder of the season would get an inside track to re-signing him. He might even want a one year value rebuilder...

[Slasher9]

Maybe JBJ isn't an "elite defender" when viewed through pinstripe glasses but it sure seems like every broadcaster I've seen or heard still salivates at his defense. I tend to take the word of people whose career is in baseball rather than a Yankees fan whose goal is to see the Sox finally become a team the Yankees can beat.

boom.

[Slasher9]

They also rave about Kevin Pillar, Kevin Kiermeier, Byron Buxton, Billy Hamilton, Lorenzo Cain, and most of all, Ramon Laureano. In fact, I don't think any CF gets or deserves more raves than Laureano, who is a game changer out there.

I've even heard broadcasters rave about Adam Engel on defense, though I'm not sure why. He looks kind of meh to me. I mean, he's OK out there. But not rave-worthy...

JBj is the greatest defensive CFer on the planet. Laureano would play LF for the Red Sox when Beni needs a blow....

[Elktonnick]

JBj is the greatest defensive CFer on the planet. Laureano would play LF for the Red Sox when Beni needs a blow....

JBJ is an excellent CFer. However he isn't the greatest defensive centerfielder. In fact he isn't even the best defensive centerfielder in the division. Kevin Kiermaier has better defensive metrics.

[notin]

JBj is the greatest defensive CFer on the planet. Laureano would play LF for the Red Sox when Beni needs a blow....

Maybe Laureano comes from another planet. It actually makes sense. Humans can’t throw like that...

[moonslav59]

Major Leagues? How many at bats does Dalbec have in the Majors? Your comparing Double AA and Triple AAA, to the Majors?

Yup, and we know how often Chavis K's in the bigs. It's about the same as you projected Dalbec would get.

(It wasn't me who projected Dalbec's ML K rate.)

[moonslav59]

john henry is the greatest owner in new england sports history and its not even close.

No doubt.

[moonslav59]

Maybe, since he is not a pitcher, Dombrowski will make a move for the recently-released Scooter Gennett. Scooter is having a horrible season after missing the first 3 months, but in 2017-18, he did have an .859OPS with 50 HRs. He is a free agent after 2019, but whoever signs him for the remainder of the season would get an inside track to re-signing him. He might even want a one year value rebuilder...

We won't sign him to enough to put us over the max line.

[notin]

We won't sign him to enough to put us over the max line.

This year he’d cost a pro-rated league minimum. Next year is another matter....

[moonslav59]

This year he’d cost a pro-rated league minimum. Next year is another matter....

So, if anybody who "signs him" pays just the minimum, it's kind of up to him where he goes, among those who want him.

[S5Dewey]

JBJ is an excellent CFer. However he isn't the greatest defensive centerfielder. In fact he isn't even the best defensive centerfielder in the division. Kevin Kiermaier has better defensive metrics.

Oh, well then, if he has better defensive metrics that settles it. :rolleyes:

[S5Dewey]

No doubt.

If I'm starting a Mt. Rushmore of owners Bob Kraft is right there beside John Henry.

[S5Dewey]

They also rave about Kevin Pillar, Kevin Kiermeier, Byron Buxton, Billy Hamilton, Lorenzo Cain, and most of all, Ramon Laureano. In fact, I don't think any CF gets or deserves more raves than Laureano, who is a game changer out there.

I've even heard broadcasters rave about Adam Engel on defense, though I'm not sure why. He looks kind of meh to me. I mean, he's OK out there. But not rave-worthy...

Really? You've seen enough different teams with all those players play on different days with different announcers to know that they all "rave" about all of those guys???

[Elktonnick]

Oh, well then, if he has better defensive metrics that settles it. :rolleyes:

We see JBJ every day so Sox fans tend to over rate JBJ compared to Keirmeier but whenever the Sox play the Rays even the NESN announcers recognize Keirmeier's prowess. Keirmeier has two gold gloves. He didn't play last year due to injury and not the full year in 2017 but that year he came in second place in Defensive Runs Saved at center field with 22, a career low, and short only of the Minnesota Twins' Byron Buxton, whom led with 24 Defensive Runs Saved, even though Kiermaier played in over 300 less innings than Buxton. When healthy he clearly is not only the better defender than JBJ he has the better more accurate arm and is better at the plate.

[Bellhorn04]

Also if you Google 'Kevin Kiermaier catches' or 'Byron Buxton catches' you will find plenty of clips of their best grabs (as you will with JBJ catches).

[Elktonnick]

john henry is the greatest owner in new england sports history and its not even close.

John Henry has his place but we old timers remember Walter A Brown who not only was the original owner of the Boston Celtics and one of the founders of the NBA but saved the Boston Bruins which he bought in 1951. As great Henry is, he can't match Walter Brown's contributions to two great Boston professional franchises nor his contribution to the Boston marathon. Brown is in both the Basketball and Hockey Halls of Fame. The Celtics won 6 world titles in 7 years before his death at a very young 59 in 1964.

[notin]

Really? You've seen enough different teams with all those players play on different days with different announcers to know that they all "rave" about all of those guys???

Yes, especially Buxton, Cain, Hamilton and, for some reason, Engel.

I live in Chicago, so I see plenty of AL and NL Central teams. (FYI some of them also love Harrison Bader.) Last year I saw Kiermeier and Buxton at Comiskey/US Cellular/Guaranteed Rate Field in person.

As for Laureano, go to YouTube and make the call for yourself. Like this one https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=pEqupc0s9DY

And bear in mind that throw had no cutoff man and I don’t think it even bounced. And there are other clips. The dude is amazing.

But the big question is - why are you doubting this? Do you think Bradley is the only CF anyone raves about?

[moonslav59]

If I'm starting a Mt. Rushmore of owners Bob Kraft is right there beside John Henry.

I think the Celtics had 3 different owner groups during their glory years, so I guess none qualify?

[moonslav59]

Yes, especially Buxton, Cain, Hamilton and, for some reason, Engel.

I live in Chicago, so I see plenty of AL and NL Central teams. (FYI some of them also love Harrison Bader.) Last year I saw Kiermeier and Buxton at Comiskey/US Cellular/Guaranteed Rate Field in person.

As for Laureano, go to YouTube and make the call for yourself. Like this one https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=pEqupc0s9DY

And bear in mind that throw had no cutoff man and I don’t think it even bounced. And there are other clips. The dude is amazing.

But the big question is - why are you doubting this? Do you think Bradley is the only CF anyone raves about?

We need a metric that measures the amount and degree of these raves.

[S5Dewey]

We see JBJ every day so Sox fans tend to over rate JBJ compared to Keirmeier but whenever the Sox play the Rays even the NESN announcers recognize Keirmeier's prowess. Keirmeier has two gold gloves. He didn't play last year due to injury and not the full year in 2017 but that year he came in second place in Defensive Runs Saved at center field with 22, a career low, and short only of the Minnesota Twins' Byron Buxton, whom led with 24 Defensive Runs Saved, even though Kiermaier played in over 300 less innings than Buxton. When healthy he clearly is not only the better defender than JBJ he has the better more accurate arm and is better at the plate.

Does a CF'er have to be the unequivocal best CF'er in baseball in order for it to be smart for his team to keep him?

I'm not sure how Keiermeier got dragged into this conversation. I'm not trying to make the case that JBJ is the best CF'er in baseball. I'm just saying that 1) I don't put a lot of faith in a Yankee fan poster who has an agenda of frequently trolling this site, 2) keeping JBJ is smarter than releasing or trading him, and 3) JH knows it.

[moonslav59]

Does a CF'er have to be the unequivocal best CF'er in baseball in order for it to be smart for his team to keep him?

I'm not sure how Keiermeier got dragged into this conversation. I'm not trying to make the case that JBJ is the best CF'er in baseball. I'm just saying that 1) I don't put a lot of faith in a Yankee fan poster who has an agenda of frequently trolling this site, 2) keeping JBJ is smarter than releasing or trading him, and 3) JH knows it.

If we have no budget constraints, I can see the value in keeping JBJ, but it seems pretty clear- reset or not- we will have spending limitations. Spending $10-11M on JBJ, when we can get a similar defensive CF'er for less than half that costs just doesn't make sense to me.

I want to understand your apparent need to have JBJ on the 2020 team. I don't get the Betts protection theory since both are FAs after 2020. If it's about trading Betts this winter or next summer, and you want JBJ for that scenario, trading Betts would mean we are rebuilding in 2020 and wouldn't need JBJ for 2020 and could sign him as a FA afterwards, if we wished.

If the reason is because you are afraid we'd trade or non tender JBJ and end up with a significantly inferior defensive CF'er, I'd share that concern, unless it was just a 1 year temporary bridge to 2021 and a rebuild/reset situation. My plan has been to trade JBJ and bring in an equal, very close or better defensive CF'er at a fraction of the cost, but you seem to not like that idea, or don't trust we can find one, or you don't think there are any as good as JBJ that are easily obtainable. I'm not sure what the fear is.

If I told you we could get Billy Hamilton for $1.5M before we had to decide on JBJ, would you then be okay with trading or non tendering him this winter? Would your answer change, if you found out we were certain to reset next year?

I know there's a lot of questions here, and I'm sincerely interested inn your opinions, because I share a lot of the same philosophies as you do, especially pertaining to defense up the middle. I'm just having trouble understanding why you seem to be clinging to JBJ, so much.

I can understand wanting a .730 GG type CF'er over a .630 GG type CF'er, but if we can save $10M and still have great CF defense, I'm open to the idea.

[moonslav59]

AZ Fall League...

Red Sox (Peoria): Bryan Mata, RHP (No. 3); Jarren Duran, OF (No. 4); Tanner Houck, RHP (No. 5); C.J. Chatham, SS (No. 9); Marcus Wilson, OF (No. 17); Yoan Aybar, LHP (No. 29)

All six of the announced Red Sox farmhands so far are Top 30 Prospects, including several of their best. Mata and Houck are the two best pitchers in their system, while Duran appeared in the SiriusXM All-Star Futures Game in his first full pro season and has batted .307/.373/.411 with 35 extra-base hits and 44 steals while rushing to Double-A. Complete roster »

[oldtimer]

AZ Fall League...

Red Sox (Peoria): Bryan Mata, RHP (No. 3); Jarren Duran, OF (No. 4); Tanner Houck, RHP (No. 5); C.J. Chatham, SS (No. 9); Marcus Wilson, OF (No. 17); Yoan Aybar, LHP (No. 29)

All six of the announced Red Sox farmhands so far are Top 30 Prospects, including several of their best. Mata and Houck are the two best pitchers in their system, while Duran appeared in the SiriusXM All-Star Futures Game in his first full pro season and has batted .307/.373/.411 with 35 extra-base hits and 44 steals while rushing to Double-A. Complete roster »

I do feel the reset will occur in 2020. The Sox will need to offset our bloated budget that will still likely result from having underperformers on salary, with low cost younger players, I would think Mata, Houck, Duran and Chatham are possible replacement players, where we may need them the most (CF, SP and IF). Not all these guys will make the grade next year, but giving them a chance to gain experience and help us starting with Spring Training makes a lot of sense. We do have Travis, Chavis, Lin, MHern and Holt who will compete with some of them, but other than DHern we have no other young SP talent and we need to replace Porcello and one would have to be very optimistic to think all three of Price, Sale and Eovaldi would be contributors going forward.

[moonslav59]

I do feel the reset will occur in 2020. The Sox will need to offset our bloated budget that will still likely result from having underperformers on salary, with low cost younger players, I would think Mata, Houck, Duran and Chatham are possible replacement players, where we may need them the most (CF, SP and IF). Not all these guys will make the grade next year, but giving them a chance to gain experience and help us starting with Spring Training makes a lot of sense. We do have Travis, Chavis, Lin, MHern and Holt who will compete with some of them, but other than DHern we have no other young SP talent and we need to replace Porcello and one would have to be very optimistic to think all three of Price, Sale and Eovaldi would be contributors going forward.

I'd add Dalbec and Ockimey to the mix of players with a chance of making a "reset" roster.

[moonslav59]

JBJ sets a record...

https://www.mlb.com/news/jackie-bradley-jr-478-foot-home-run?game_pk=565476

[Slasher9]

JBJ sets a record...

https://www.mlb.com/news/jackie-bradley-jr-478-foot-home-run?game_pk=565476

Meh. Kiermeier would have hit it 20’ further.....and then sprint out to CF while the ball was in the air and robbed his own homerun....

[notin]

Does a CF'er have to be the unequivocal best CF'er in baseball in order for it to be smart for his team to keep him?

I'm not sure how Keiermeier got dragged into this conversation. I'm not trying to make the case that JBJ is the best CF'er in baseball. I'm just saying that 1) I don't put a lot of faith in a Yankee fan poster who has an agenda of frequently trolling this site, 2) keeping JBJ is smarter than releasing or trading him, and 3) JH knows it.

I don’t think you get to speak for John Henry here. But if you do, at least remember he is a strong metrics guy and was one of the first owners in MLB to add metrics people to the front office. Unless he only hired Bill James to play Santa at the office Christmas party, which would also have been a good idea.

It’s not whether JBJ is the best or not. It’s whether he’s worth $10-12 mil. It’s easy to say yes when he’s your favorite player and you’re not actually paying the bills, and if no serious decisions have to be made about the finances of this team. Having Bradley back would be great, but he won’t be cheap. He didn’t hire Scott Boras so he could take a paycut.

Now bear in mind, a reset is just a board theory. It makes sense in a lot of ways, it’s not like we’re working with insider info here. But right now, this team is Betts-Bogaerts-Devers as the core. And a reset might be the only way to keep that core...

[notin]

Meh. Kiermeier would have hit it 20’ further.....and then sprint out to CF while the ball was in the air and robbed his own homerun....

Laureano can do all that and throw himself out at the plate. And he does it by throwing it the wrong way so it circles the globe and comes back to him covered with stickers of all the countries it passed through...

[notin]

I do feel the reset will occur in 2020. The Sox will need to offset our bloated budget that will still likely result from having underperformers on salary, with low cost younger players, I would think Mata, Houck, Duran and Chatham are possible replacement players, where we may need them the most (CF, SP and IF). Not all these guys will make the grade next year, but giving them a chance to gain experience and help us starting with Spring Training makes a lot of sense. We do have Travis, Chavis, Lin, MHern and Holt who will compete with some of them, but other than DHern we have no other young SP talent and we need to replace Porcello and one would have to be very optimistic to think all three of Price, Sale and Eovaldi would be contributors going forward.

Mata is 20 and not exactly dominating AA. I hope he doesn’t make the team in 2020, for multiple reasons. Ditto Duran.

I could see Chatham in the 2b mix with Marco. And maybe Houck on the 40 man

The Sox might have to resort to a minor league contract or two to keep payroll down, but that’s no reason to ruin any promise on the farm in the process...

[notin]

I'd add Dalbec and Ockimey to the mix of players with a chance of making a "reset" roster.

Add Dalbec to another roster and get a pitcher (and not a belly-itcher) back...

[S5Dewey]

I want to understand your apparent need to have JBJ on the 2020 team. I don't get the Betts protection theory since both are FAs after 2020. If it's about trading Betts this winter or next summer, and you want JBJ for that scenario, trading Betts would mean we are rebuilding in 2020 and wouldn't need JBJ for 2020 and could sign him as a FA afterwards, if we wished.

If the reason is because you are afraid we'd trade or non tender JBJ and end up with a significantly inferior defensive CF'er, I'd share that concern, unless it was just a 1 year temporary bridge to 2021 and a rebuild/reset situation. My plan has been to trade JBJ and bring in an equal, very close or better defensive CF'er at a fraction of the cost, but you seem to not like that idea, or don't trust we can find one, or you don't think there are any as good as JBJ that are easily obtainable. I'm not sure what the fear is.

I know there's a lot of questions here, and I'm sincerely interested inn your opinions, because I share a lot of the same philosophies as you do, especially pertaining to defense up the middle. I'm just having trouble understanding why you seem to be clinging to JBJ, so much.



I have resigned myself to the idea that Mookie isn't coming through that door in 2021. If you were a championship-type player, someone you build a team around, would you want to come back to a team that's obviously in the start of a rebuild, but with a decimated farm? I sure wouldn't. Trust me. After you've been on a winning team losing becomes not an option if you can control it. I'd be wiling to settle for a few million dollars less over the life of the contract to play for a winner. (And I know that "a few million dollars' is still a lot of money but it's not as much when you have 300 of them piled up anyway). So I don't see him coming back. In fact, IMO he'd be stupid if he does come back.

So then we have JBJ, who can be signed for a whole lot less to anchor that outfield. I don't expect to see anyone throwing $300M, $200M, or even $100M his way unless it's a lifetime contract - and the Sox would be stupid to offer anyone not named Mookie (or maybe Devers) a lifetime contract.

Like DD, I like defense! I believe that defense is as important to winning games as is offense and I believe our pitching staff would tell you the same thing. Like DD, I also believe in the old adage (if 'old adages' haven't been outdated in this time of metrics) of being Solid Up The Middle. Our up-the-middle defense is weak enough as it is with Bogaerts and a PTBNL in the infield. [Sidebar disclaimer: IMO Bogaerts offensive capability outweighs his defensive shortcomings so I'm not advocating moving him but that doesn't make him any better defensively].
Getting back to SUTM now, I've always believed that a winning team should be solid defensively at C, 2b, SS, & CF and accept any offensive shortcomings at those positions to be that way. I've also believed that if a team has to have defensive weaknesses it should be at the corner positions. I don't particularly like having defensive weaknesses anywhere but if a team has an offensive player like XBo in an UTM position they can afford a weakness at a corner position.

In a nutshell, if the Sox are going into a rebuild mode I believe they should take the longer view and keep the best players they can afford to keep in the long run and not be so focused on the next year that they let one (or more) of those players get away. I also believe that one in the hand is worth two in the bush. We KNOW we can sign JBJ to another season and then deal with signing him (or not) for 2021 depending on what the 2021 team looks like. I'd rather do that and accept the salary consequences than risk our outfield defense in 2021 & beyond by losing both JBJ for 2020 & Mookie in 2021 in two years. I DO NOT want to see this team turn into Baltimore or Toronto for the sake of a 'rebuild'.

And BTW, I also haven't given up on the future of the team that takes the field now. Our only weakness is starting pitching and it's entirely possible that we, for some reason, hit The Perfect Storm of bad pitching this year. The thing that concerns me most is the situation with Sale, which, in spite of what I read here, hasn't been resolved yet and won't be until they can do more diagnostic work on his elbow. But even if Sale goes down in 2020 I still keep JBJ and try to sign him for 2021 and beyond.

Phew!

[notin]

I see no reason to walk assume Betts isn’t coming back. The Sox will have the need and the budget space, and while there are certainly other large market teams, many of them either lack the budget room or have their own elite players to worry about.

Certainly there’s still a really good chance Mookie leaves, but this is a situation where the Sox should do everything possible.

This could mean Bradley. While Dombrowski’s commitment to defense isn’t so historically accurate, he also isn’t going to simply leave CF vacant. Possibly a glove-first type, as most of them are cheaper. But maybe the Sox slide a current corner over, which can be great (Betts) for defense fans, or not so great (that non-Betts guy).

The good news for fans of defense is, if the Sox go this budget-conscious way, the cheapest way to fill the outfield is a no-hit/good field CF...

[Bellhorn04]

Interestingly (or not), we have 3 players who are having substantially better offensive seasons than Mookie this year.

[moonslav59]

First, thank you for your thoughtful response.

I have resigned myself to the idea that Mookie isn't coming through that door in 2021. If you were a championship-type player, someone you build a team around, would you want to come back to a team that's obviously in the start of a rebuild, but with a decimated farm? I sure wouldn't. Trust me. After you've been on a winning team losing becomes not an option if you can control it. I'd be wiling to settle for a few million dollars less over the life of the contract to play for a winner. (And I know that "a few million dollars' is still a lot of money but it's not as much when you have 300 of them piled up anyway). So I don't see him coming back. In fact, IMO he'd be stupid if he does come back.

Although I see the Sox as entering a "rebuild mode" very soon, I do not think it will be a long drawn out rebuild- like the Astros. Henry has shown he is willing to spend, and I think once we reset, we will be back to near the top in player budget spending the next year. That is a huge draw to any free agent or player looking to see where he may want to spend the next 7-10 years.

Also, if we end up losing Betts, I don't think Henry will pocket the $30+M and say, "Oh well, that sucked!" He will spend it elsewhere.

So then we have JBJ, who can be signed for a whole lot less to anchor that outfield. I don't expect to see anyone throwing $300M, $200M, or even $100M his way unless it's a lifetime contract - and the Sox would be stupid to offer anyone not named Mookie (or maybe Devers) a lifetime contract.

Okay, so what is preventing us from signing JBJ after trading or non tendering him? Or, what is preventing us from signing someone similar to JBJ or maybe even better on defense going forward to the next 2-5 years?

Like DD, I like defense! I believe that defense is as important to winning games as is offense and I believe our pitching staff would tell you the same thing. Like DD, I also believe in the old adage (if 'old adages' haven't been outdated in this time of metrics) of being Solid Up The Middle. Our up-the-middle defense is weak enough as it is with Bogaerts and a PTBNL in the infield. [Sidebar disclaimer: IMO Bogaerts offensive capability outweighs his defensive shortcomings so I'm not advocating moving him but that doesn't make him any better defensively].

I still don't know why another, much cheaper great defensive CF'er wouldn't make the staff and us happy.


Getting back to SUTM now, I've always believed that a winning team should be solid defensively at C, 2b, SS, & CF and accept any offensive shortcomings at those positions to be that way. I've also believed that if a team has to have defensive weaknesses it should be at the corner positions. I don't particularly like having defensive weaknesses anywhere but if a team has an offensive player like XBo in an UTM position they can afford a weakness at a corner position.

I totally agree.

In a nutshell, if the Sox are going into a rebuild mode I believe they should take the longer view and keep the best players they can afford to keep in the long run and not be so focused on the next year that they let one (or more) of those players get away. I also believe that one in the hand is worth two in the bush. We KNOW we can sign JBJ to another season and then deal with signing him (or not) for 2021 depending on what the 2021 team looks like. I'd rather do that and accept the salary consequences than risk our outfield defense in 2021 & beyond by losing both JBJ for 2020 & Mookie in 2021 in two years. I DO NOT want to see this team turn into Baltimore or Toronto for the sake of a 'rebuild'.

Would you be okay, if we signed or traded for a CF'er who was equal or better to JBJ, or maybe very slightly worse but much younger?

And BTW, I also haven't given up on the future of the team that takes the field now. Our only weakness is starting pitching and it's entirely possible that we, for some reason, hit The Perfect Storm of bad pitching this year. The thing that concerns me most is the situation with Sale, which, in spite of what I read here, hasn't been resolved yet and won't be until they can do more diagnostic work on his elbow. But even if Sale goes down in 2020 I still keep JBJ and try to sign him for 2021 and beyond.

Our pen is a weakness, too. Beyond on the field, our farm and budget are our biggest issues.

I love what Henry has done for the Sox, but I think he is going to want to reset after 2020 or 2021. If we choose 2021, Betts is 99.9% gone. If we choose 2020, he may be 50-50, but only if JBJ is gone and replaced by a more than capable CF'er.

Phew!

Yes, and thanks again for the reply.

Let me know, if there are any current CF'er in MLB you'd be okay with instead of JBJ.

[Elktonnick]

Meh. Kiermeier would have hit it 20’ further.....and then sprint out to CF while the ball was in the air and robbed his own homerun....

The point is that JBJ is NOT the best defensive CF currently playing. His defense although at times spectacular can be replaced at a reasonable cost. So there are options other than JBJ for Boston.

[notin]

The only real disadvantage for the Sox in resetting after 2020 and then re-signing Betts is the free agent market beyond Mookie right now actually looks fairly weak. This has pluses and minuses.

The big minus is that any team looking to drop some serious coin won;t find anything in the way of alternatives. The flip side to that is, those same teams obviously won't have a $20mill player coming off the books, so we won't know who has available budget, and a lot of them have their own internal star players to worry about, such as the Dodgers. (Sign Mookie or extend Bellinger?) That is, unless Giancarlo Stanton opts out of his Yankee contract, which would be a move his agent will be screaming at him not to do. Much like Price, I don't think Stanton is going to find a comparable offer from the non-Yankee teams out there. I doubt anyone else will top the 7 year / $218mill he will still have left on that deal (which could also turn onto an 8 year / $233mill deal if his option gets exercised). The remianing years for Stanton are the higher paid ones on thta contract.

Now I do expect JD Martinez to be more likely to opt out, a his last 2 years are the lower paid ones on his deal. But he might find staying to be the better move, since his last bout with free agency didn't play out the way it was supposed to in the public story (which might have been nothing but a marketing ploy by Boras).

So that leaves only George Springer as a consolation prize, and likely a considerably cheaper one than Betts as Springer is 3 years older and not nearly as good. Or the Sox and the other suitors will have to wait another year for Kris Bryant...

[notin]

The point is that JBJ is NOT the best defensive CF currently playing. His defense although at times spectacular can be replaced at a reasonable cost. So there are options other than JBJ for Boston.

And even if you only get 90% of JBJ out there, is it really so bad? We did win a title with Johnny Damon in CF at one point, and compared to JBJ, it really was like leaving CF vacant for a season. We are talking about a CF who once used the LF as a cutoff man...

[Elktonnick]

I think the Celtics had 3 different owner groups during their glory years, so I guess none qualify?

Brown was the sole owner until his death. Henry's accomplishments although outstanding pale in comparison to what Walter Brown did for Boston Sports which include six world titles, being the original owner of the Celtics, co founding the NBA and literally saving the Boston Bruins. Like I said he is in BOTH the hockey and basketball halls of fame as well as having made the Boston Marathon one of the world's premier sporting events. Henry may be one of the best current owners in professional sports but his accomplishments for New England by any objective analysis don't measure up to Walter Brown's, at least not yet.

[moonslav59]

The only real disadvantage for the Sox in resetting after 2020 and then re-signing Betts is the free agent market beyond Mookie right now actually looks fairly weak. This has pluses and minuses.

The big minus is that any team looking to drop some serious coin won;t find anything in the way of alternatives. The flip side to that is, those same teams obviously won't have a $20mill player coming off the books, so we won't know who has available budget, and a lot of them have their own internal star players to worry about, such as the Dodgers. (Sign Mookie or extend Bellinger?) That is, unless Giancarlo Stanton opts out of his Yankee contract, which would be a move his agent will be screaming at him not to do. Much like Price, I don't think Stanton is going to find a comparable offer from the non-Yankee teams out there. I doubt anyone else will top the 7 year / $218mill he will still have left on that deal (which could also turn onto an 8 year / $233mill deal if his option gets exercised). The remianing years for Stanton are the higher paid ones on thta contract.

Now I do expect JD Martinez to be more likely to opt out, a his last 2 years are the lower paid ones on his deal. But he might find staying to be the better move, since his last bout with free agency didn't play out the way it was supposed to in the public story (which might have been nothing but a marketing ploy by Boras).

So that leaves only George Springer as a consolation prize, and likely a considerably cheaper one than Betts as Springer is 3 years older and not nearly as good. Or the Sox and the other suitors will have to wait another year for Kris Bryant...

I've been pushing for trying to make the rebuild last just one year (reset after this year and be back 2021), but it is likely we will need at least one more year.

As much as I hate to say it, maybe 2022 is the earliest we can reasonably expect to be back near the top- assuming a reset is in the works.

I hope we can keep Betts and be back by 2021 or 2022, but it just may not work out.

[notin]

I've been pushing for trying to make the rebuild last just one year (reset after this year and be back 2021), but it is likely we will need at least one more year.

As much as I hate to say it, maybe 2022 is the earliest we can reasonably expect to be back near the top- assuming a reset is in the works.

I hope we can keep Betts and be back by 2021 or 2022, but it just may not work out.



I am thinking of more of a Reload than a Rebuild. To me, "rebuilding" is a really nice way of telling your fans "we aren't spending any money, so keep those expectations low."

The White Sox have been in a rebuild fo a while, and the expectations have been low, but the White Sox are actually a fairly smart organization. I go to their games plenty of times because, well, you should see how cheap the Sunday ticket prices are. An "expensive" ticket sometimes costs all of $7. That's like the price of a fast food value meal. And for the cheaper, "less interesting" games - $4 per ticket. These are not typos.

This means on some Sundays, I can take my entire family to a White Sox game and spend less on tickets than I would if I were to go by myself to watch the Schaumburg Boomers or the Joliet Slammers. (These are baseball teams.)

But if the Sox rebuild, will they be so generous to their fans? How do you get people to go?

[moonslav59]

I am thinking of more of a Reload than a Rebuild. To me, "rebuilding" is a really nice way of telling your fans "we aren't spending any money, so keep those expectations low."

The White Sox have been in a rebuild fo a while, and the expectations have been low, but the White Sox are actually a fairly smart organization. I go to their games plenty of times because, well, you should see how cheap the Sunday ticket prices are. An "expensive" ticket sometimes costs all of $7. That's like the price of a fast food value meal. And for the cheaper, "less interesting" games - $4 per ticket. These are not typos.

This means on some Sundays, I can take my entire family to a White Sox game and spend less on tickets than I would if I were to go by myself to watch the Schaumburg Boomers or the Joliet Slammers. (These are baseball teams.)

But if the Sox rebuild, will they be so generous to their fans? How do you get people to go?

Call it what you want, but even if resetting, we'll still be near or over $200M and a top 6 or 7 spender, so we should never be the worst team, like The Astros were for a while.

I'm not sure how having the 10th to 20th draft pick and a little more international pool money will help to improve the farm, but any significant step forward there could help our extended future.

If we reset after 2019 and spend up to but below the max line in 2021, we should have a nice team for the fans to watch.

"Highly competitive" might be another issue, especially if we guess wrong on our signings and extension.

[jacksonianmarch]

Being willing to spend typically lessens the blow, but willingness to spend and ALREADY spending big money are two different things. It isn’t like Henry is able to provide a clean slate here. He’s got over $500 million dollars in future commitments when you consider Pedroia, Eovaldi, JD, Bogaerts, Sale, and Price. And the only one that looks like plus value is Bogaerts’ deal. The Astros were down for many years because they refused to spend to speed up the process and what it allowed them was a considerably larger window with the ability to use their finances to secure their players long term or bring in guys with big contracts to stay on top. That will crash down eventually, but they refused to fully raid their farm which allowed them to keep guys like Alvarez, Tucker and Whitley who are their next wave. The Sox are in a pickle. They need to decide if they should spend and give the gang another chance or sell off some pieces and have an aging roster of high priced players on a bad team.

[kenmeister]

Price, Sale, and Eovaldi really do need to provide significant ROI over the next few years for us to compete, I agree.

[Bellhorn04]

Brown was the sole owner until his death. Henry's accomplishments although outstanding pale in comparison to what Walter Brown did for Boston Sports which include six world titles, being the original owner of the Celtics, co founding the NBA and literally saving the Boston Bruins. Like I said he is in BOTH the hockey and basketball halls of fame as well as having made the Boston Marathon one of the world's premier sporting events. Henry may be one of the best current owners in professional sports but his accomplishments for New England by any objective analysis don't measure up to Walter Brown's, at least not yet.

It's an apples and oranges comparison no doubt.

If you're a Red Sox fan it has to be Henry. He took over a team that had not won a title since 1918 - arguably the most famous drought in sports - and not only delivered that long-awaited title but now 4 of them.