A Realistic View at 2020: Part I

[Jack Flap]

So the trade simulator accepted a trade of Betts and Chavis to SD for Myers and Tatis (the Padres actually come out on top by 2.2 there)...that's how much of a negative Myers' contract is.

The Padres' reported desire to unload most or all of Myers' money on us is understandable...their desire not to give up their best prospects for one year of Betts is also understandable...but expecting to do both is ludicrous.

Guys like Campusano and Lucchesi ought to be in play for us without involving Myers at all. If we're taking Myers, I'd want Gore as a starting point, plus other significant pieces...otherwise SD can pound sand.

[notin]

Betts for Myers, Gore and Grisham. No money changes hands...

[Bellhorn04]

Myers deal is back loaded, $21M remaining each of the last 3 year. Who the hell would want that? Padres wouldn't be able to get back a bag of balls for him.

The only good thing is that the AAV for tax purposes is a lot less than that.

[moonslav59]

The Padres are the better match.

The Dodgers have shown they own the NL West for the past 7 seasons. They’ve lost 2 of the last 3 World Series to teams currently embroiled in sign-stealing scandals. They did all this without Betts.

The Padres, on the other hand, have given out a few mega contracts and spent money, but gotten nowhere. Their upper management has basically demanded Oreller improve the team or find another organization. While he will probably have another job within minutes, he still has some motivation to not get fired. He’s under actual pressure to improve a team, not maintain the status quo or “get over the hump.” Having a stacked farm also helps.

The Dodgers need to get over the hump and finally win it all. This looks like the year with the best chance as the Sox and Astros have declined.

The Padres are not at a "win now" place. They need more than Betts for that.

[moonslav59]

The only good thing is that the AAV for tax purposes is a lot less than that.

Yes, it's $13.833 x 3 years. That's what makes trading for him enticing. The Padres save some money, and we avoid taxes.

We also need a 1Bman and 4th OF'er.

The rest of the package is the issue.

[mvp 78]

Prospective trade:

Grisham
Trent Grisham also displayed an elite skill in the minors: plate discipline. He too was subject to some swing and approach changes during his time as a prospect, and he struggled. At times he could be described as passive rather than selective, but things seemed to click in 2019 as he retained that feel for the strike zone while also finally hitting for some power. Kiley and I 50 FV’d Grisham last summer, and we think he’s a solid, everyday player. He has less ceiling than Urías, but more certainty now that his swing is dialed in.
Croneworth (just came out of the Rays system)
Cronenworth, the second part of the Padres’ return, bears more explanation. He’s a 25-year old shortstop with enough glove to stick there, with the arm and fielding motions to handle any position across the infield in at least a utility role. His real appeal is with the bat, where he took a huge step forward in 2019. The International League notably switched to major league baseballs last year, and Cronenworth took advantage. He hit .334/.429/.520, walking 12% of the time while only striking out 15.3%, on the way to arguably his best offensive season at the highest level of competition he’s ever faced. His 10 home runs more than doubled his previous single-season total, and his exit velocity numbers would look at home in the majors; an 89 mph average, with 39% of his contact 95 mph or higher. If this newfound power is going to stick, it will likely come with a lower BABIP and more fly balls — his 1.72 GB/FB ratio limits the amount of damage he can do in the air. Even if he doesn’t hold all of his power gains, the bat control and plate approach give him a nice floor, and he fields and runs enough to make the total package work.
Campusano
Automatically becomes Sox best C prospect, has a little pop. No fangraphs write up.
one of either Quantrill, Luchessi or Michael Baez
I'd take Luchessi because he has a higher floor than Quantril or Baez. I do like Quantril though. If they offered Quantril and Luchessi, I'd eat more of Myers' salary as long as they can still get under the tax cap.

[mvp 78]

Betts for Myers, Gore and Grisham. No money changes hands...

Gore is untouchable.

[mvp 78]

At the end of the day, Mookie for Myers, Grisham, Croneworth and Luchessi is far better than just losing Mookie to FA. I'd still like to get another prospect thrown in there.

[mvp 78]

So the trade simulator accepted a trade of Betts and Chavis to SD for Myers and Tatis (the Padres actually come out on top by 2.2 there)...that's how much of a negative Myers' contract is.

The Padres' reported desire to unload most or all of Myers' money on us is understandable...their desire not to give up their best prospects for one year of Betts is also understandable...but expecting to do both is ludicrous.

Guys like Campusano and Lucchesi ought to be in play for us without involving Myers at all. If we're taking Myers, I'd want Gore as a starting point, plus other significant pieces...otherwise SD can pound sand.

They aren't trading Tatis.

[a700hitter]

They aren't trading Tatis.Not for 1 year of Betts. No one is going to give us their top building blocks for Betts.

[Jack Flap]

They aren't trading Tatis.

I know that...the point was to show just how much negative value Myers' contract carries with it.

[moonslav59]

Gore is untouchable.

The real question is about Patino.

[mvp 78]

The real question is about Patino.

Seems like a good makeup guy.

Not long ago, Patiño was an undersized Colombian shortstop who would pitch once in a while. The Padres liked his athleticism enough to sign him and move him to the mound full-time. He’s added a full 10 ticks to his fastball over the last two and a half years, and now is not only one of the best on-mound athletes in the minors, but a hard worker and team leader with infectious charisma. Patiño’s velocity came as he got in the weight room and added about 25 pounds. He was so dominant during his first few pro starts in the DSL that the Padres quickly pushed him stateside for the remainder of 2017, then to the Midwest League at age 18 the following year.

Not only does Patiño have premium arm strength, he has natural feel for spin, and is a curious learner who quickly actualizes instruction on the mound. He has already begun to vary the cadence of his delivery to mess with hitters’ timing, and has mapped aspects of MacKenzie Gore’s delivery onto his own, just to see if it works for him. He’s still a little too confident with his breaking ball in the zone, but it’s hard not to expect an athlete with work habits like these (Patiño has already learned and is fluent in English) to get better at everything. You can go nuts projecting on his secondaries and command the same way scouts did with Hunter Greene when he was in high school, and Patiño’s breaking stuff is further along than Greene’s was at the same age. He likely won’t grow into more velo because the frame for that isn’t here, but he’s already got plenty of heat. Conservatively, Patiño has mid-rotation upside, but how the changeup and breaking ball command develop matter because that’s where there’s room for significant growth.

[moonslav59]

What if we threw some prospects into the deal plus Workman (FA after 2020)?

Betts, Eovaldi, Workman, Chavis, Duran

for

Myers, Grisham, Naylor, Patino, Morejon & Weathers

(The simulator accepted this.)

[moonslav59]

No Eovaldi of Price?

I'm not for this, but it was accepted...

Betts, Workman, Chavis & Duran

for

Myers, Lucchesi, Grisham, Patino, Campusano & Marcano

[mvp 78]

What if we threw some prospects into the deal plus Workman (FA after 2020)?

Betts, Eovaldi, Workman, Chavis, Duran

for

Myers, Grisham, Naylor, Patino, Morejon & Weathers

(The simulator accepted this.)

I think that's getting a little too far from what either side is comfortable with. It's not often that you see 10 person trades.

[moonslav59]

I think that's getting a little too far from what either side is comfortable with. It's not often that you see 10 person trades.

Agreed, but if SD is going for a 2020 win, having Workman and Chavis helps. Duran eases fear of what happens after Betts bolts. Eovaldi instead of cash could help them.

[notin]

What if we threw some prospects into the deal plus Workman (FA after 2020)?

Betts, Eovaldi, Workman, Chavis, Duran

for

Myers, Grisham, Naylor, Patino, Morejon & Weathers

(The simulator accepted this.)

Morejon's stock seems to be falling faster than a 90's dot com...

[mvp 78]

Morejon's stock seems to be falling faster than a 90's dot com...

Ask Jeeves is still alive and kicking today. It's just runs very slow on Netscape Navigator.

[notin]

Ask Jeeves is still alive and kicking today. It's just runs very slow on Netscape Navigator.

Use your AOL account

[mvp 78]

Use your AOL account

tofudog666@aol.com has been inactive for 20+ years.

[Bellhorn04]

Well, I'd say this is now officially the offseason from hell.

[moonslav59]

Well, I'd say this is now officially the offseason from hell.

It wasn't a few hours days or weeks ago?

[Bellhorn04]

It wasn't a few hours days or weeks ago?

Now it's reached a peak.

-It started with Henry making the statement about cutting payroll.
-We're all waiting for some big trade to happen, but nothing happens.
-Our new guy has no money to work with and has signed only the Thriller P's.
-The Houston cheating scandal reaches its day of decision and we read in horror that our manager is outed as a key player. He is soon our ex-manager.
-The Boston cheating investigation drags on and on with no resolution. We've heard J D Martinez swear innocence, but there seems to be statistical evidence against us. We might be getting whacked like Houston did.
-We still don't have a new manager.
-The most exciting development is that Mookie Betts might be getting traded.

[moonslav59]

Now it's reached a peak.

-It started with Henry making the statement about cutting payroll.
-We're all waiting for some big trade to happen, but nothing happens.
-Our new guy has no money to work with and has signed only the Thriller P's.
-The Houston cheating scandal reaches its day of decision and we read in horror that our manager is outed as a key player. He is soon our ex-manager.
-The Boston cheating investigation drags on and on with no resolution. We've heard J D Martinez swear innocence, but there seems to be statistical evidence against us. We might be getting whacked like Houston did.
-We still don't have a new manager.
-The most exciting development is that Mookie Betts might be getting traded.

I hear you loud and clear.

Fire sale time. Begin the chant, "Wait until next year!"

[jacksonianmarch]

Now it's reached a peak.

-It started with Henry making the statement about cutting payroll.
-We're all waiting for some big trade to happen, but nothing happens.
-Our new guy has no money to work with and has signed only the Thriller P's.
-The Houston cheating scandal reaches its day of decision and we read in horror that our manager is outed as a key player. He is soon our ex-manager.
-The Boston cheating investigation drags on and on with no resolution. We've heard J D Martinez swear innocence, but there seems to be statistical evidence against us. We might be getting whacked like Houston did.
-We still don't have a new manager.
-The most exciting development is that Mookie Betts might be getting traded.

That is a rough off season. But you had to know coming into 2020 that it would be getting rough. The cliff is upon the sox. They've tumbled down it. The best move the sox made was bringing in Bloom. The guy who makes unpopular deals and somehow ends up being right far more than he is wrong. I've said before, that I really, really hoped the sox held onto Betts for 2020, if only to minimize the sox future beyond 2020. You can get him back for literally nothing but money. As a matter of fact, to keep him beyond 2020, you need only money. So if 2020 is the year the sox get whalloped with penalties, but the year Bloom stays inactive, then it will be a devastating year for the sox. If the sox build their farm and take down their payroll allowing for future signings, then it will be a success. I doubt anyone with a right mind thinks the sox are good enough to win without just a ridiculous amount of luck.

[mvp 78]

Even you Jacko couldn’t have dreamed of a nightmare scenario like this.

[moonslav59]

That is a rough off season. But you had to know coming into 2020 that it would be getting rough. The cliff is upon the sox. They've tumbled down it. The best move the sox made was bringing in Bloom. The guy who makes unpopular deals and somehow ends up being right far more than he is wrong. I've said before, that I really, really hoped the sox held onto Betts for 2020, if only to minimize the sox future beyond 2020. You can get him back for literally nothing but money. As a matter of fact, to keep him beyond 2020, you need only money. So if 2020 is the year the sox get whalloped with penalties, but the year Bloom stays inactive, then it will be a devastating year for the sox. If the sox build their farm and take down their payroll allowing for future signings, then it will be a success. I doubt anyone with a right mind thinks the sox are good enough to win without just a ridiculous amount of luck.

Is 25:1 ridiculous luck?

[jacksonianmarch]

Is 25:1 ridiculous luck?

Not really sure about the odds, although sports books has the sox at 14th best odds in baseball.

[moonslav59]

Not really sure about the odds, although sports books has the sox at 14th best odds in baseball.

I looked the other day and was surprised to see us 25 to 1.

I also found us ranked 4th or 5th in odds among AL teams.

[jacksonianmarch]

I looked the other day and was surprised to see us 25 to 1.

I also found us ranked 4th or 5th in odds among AL teams.

The AL is REALLY top heavy. Although here: https://www.oddsshark.com/mlb/mlb-odds-world-series-futures
The Sox are 7th in the AL

[moonslav59]

The AL is REALLY top heavy. Although here: https://www.oddsshark.com/mlb/mlb-odds-world-series-futures
The Sox are 7th in the AL

That sounds more like it, to me.

[jacksonianmarch]

Even you Jacko couldn’t have dreamed of a nightmare scenario like this.

The sox purses are sealed closed and now the looming punishment looks to cripple a rebuild effort before it is started? Yep, that's far better than I had expected. What would have clinched things would have been a hire of a retread failed GM buddy of JH. Alas, it didn't happen. You've got a smart guy there. If he gets the green light for a rebuild, I have a feeling the next fall of the Yanks will coincide with the sox rising.

Now I know a lot of sox fans on here hate that I am posting that the sox need to rebuild, but heck, the majority of the forum here believes me (at least by the poll). It is just the few rosy glassed folks (the unabatedly optimistic), those who just want to hang on for one more crack (the hoping 2019 was an aberration crowd) or just the outright idiots (tedballgame) who cannot see the merit in this venture.

It all starts with looking at your team. Right now, there are holes. Your rotation has 3 guys who missed half the season last year. Your ace is coming off a down year with lower velocity and couldn't finish the regular season for the second season in a row due to an arm issue. Your #2 (ERod) had a career season, but prior to 2019, took annual trips to the DL. Your #3 (Price) is on the market for anyone who will take him and is coming off surgery on his throwing arm after not being able to finish the season in the rotation for the 2nd time in 3 years.. Your #4 is literally the poster child for upside without production or durability. You lost a durable (albeit poorly performing for 2019) pitcher in Porcello and replaced him with (Joe Glass) Martin Perez. The sox depth consists of Neck Tat and a recently DFAd Brian Johnson. Nobody else even remotely good is ready to jump in. The pitching market, which was impressive, was largely untouched by the sox. The rotation, which was an Achilles heel in 2019, is a year older, a year more injured and a year worse. The pen was a mess. Workman turned out to be a find, although last year was far and away his best season. Maybe he repeats it, maybe he doesn't. Either way, he is a useful building block. Matt Barnes imploded in higher leverage and became allergic to pitching back to back. Hembree sucked and couldn't stay on the field. Taylor was a find and should be useful in middle relief. The rest of the pen was pretty bad and is being replaced by DFA'd players from the Marlins et al. Looking at the 2020 pitching staff, how can anyone be excited that they can stop runs? The sox offense is gonna be top 5 again. They're deep, and outside of Brock Holt and Mitchy Average Bags, didn't lose much that they cannot replace internally. So for 2020, the sox are the Rockies of old. They're gonna score some runs, they're gonna allow a lot of runs. They were an 84 win team in 2019. With the changes, they're trending towards that again.

Then you have to look at your financial situation. You have a CONSIDERABLE amount of money tied up in underperforming assets for the next 3 seasons. Eovaldi and Price account for $48 mil per year on the payroll and they're not worth half that. You have a brand new 5 year deal with Sale that looks bad from the start. The only long term contracts that look awesome right now are X-Bo and Vasquez. Heck, even JD couldn't drum up enough interest to walk away, and he is still a force with the stick. The financial picture clears considerably after 2022. Price, Eo, JDM are off the books. You will have needed to either extend or deal ERod by then. Devers enters his final arb season and Beni has his first FA season. But the slate will be wiped clean beyond X-Bo and Sale.

Then you have to look at your farm. The sox farm has some useful pieces. Dalbec could be an option out of the gate in 2020. Chavis graduated last year. Casas is a humongous mammoth with a bat. He could end up as the starting 1b in 3 years or so if he handles the higher levels and the more advanced pitching. Outside of Mata (who's upside is a 3 or so), the sox pitching is dead. Beyond Casas and Dalbec, only maybe Chatham and Duran (less so, IMO) look to have any now value. As far as a farm system is concerned, it's pretty bleak

Then you look outside the team. Your division has 2 buzz saws in it. The Rays are going to be good for awhile with their recent deals. As long as they keep dealing off expensive talents for cheap and hitting, they will be good. IMO, their model allows them to be relevant, but never a fool proof WS candidate. Then you've got the Yanks, who are the odds on favorite to win the WS. The Yanks are likely staring at a 3 yr window of their own before their cheaper talents get really expensive and get signed for a long time. The rest of the ALE has the Jays, who will be interesting with a revamped rotation and a core that is the envy of baseball with the stick, and the O's, who are still blowing everything up. In the AL, you have the Astros, A's, Indians, Twins and maybe even the White Sox as major competitors

Then you have the added wrinkle of the investigation. If the sox get what is expected and lose the picks Houston lost AND take an IFA hit, they won't be able to rebuild without a tear down.

So, what makes anyone think a tear down isn't in the cards? Bloom has done nothing to extend the window or prop it open. He has also done nothing to tear things down. But it seems to be coming

[moonslav59]

The sox purses are sealed closed and now the looming punishment looks to cripple a rebuild effort before it is started? Yep, that's far better than I had expected. What would have clinched things would have been a hire of a retread failed GM buddy of JH. Alas, it didn't happen. You've got a smart guy there. If he gets the green light for a rebuild, I have a feeling the next fall of the Yanks will coincide with the sox rising.

Now I know a lot of sox fans on here hate that I am posting that the sox need to rebuild, but heck, the majority of the forum here believes me (at least by the poll). It is just the few rosy glassed folks (the unabatedly optimistic), those who just want to hang on for one more crack (the hoping 2019 was an aberration crowd) or just the outright idiots (tedballgame) who cannot see the merit in this venture.

It all starts with looking at your team. Right now, there are holes. Your rotation has 3 guys who missed half the season last year. Your ace is coming off a down year with lower velocity and couldn't finish the regular season for the second season in a row due to an arm issue. Your #2 (ERod) had a career season, but prior to 2019, took annual trips to the DL. Your #3 (Price) is on the market for anyone who will take him and is coming off surgery on his throwing arm after not being able to finish the season in the rotation for the 2nd time in 3 years.. Your #4 is literally the poster child for upside without production or durability. You lost a durable (albeit poorly performing for 2019) pitcher in Porcello and replaced him with (Joe Glass) Martin Perez. The sox depth consists of Neck Tat and a recently DFAd Brian Johnson. Nobody else even remotely good is ready to jump in. The pitching market, which was impressive, was largely untouched by the sox. The rotation, which was an Achilles heel in 2019, is a year older, a year more injured and a year worse. The pen was a mess. Workman turned out to be a find, although last year was far and away his best season. Maybe he repeats it, maybe he doesn't. Either way, he is a useful building block. Matt Barnes imploded in higher leverage and became allergic to pitching back to back. Hembree sucked and couldn't stay on the field. Taylor was a find and should be useful in middle relief. The rest of the pen was pretty bad and is being replaced by DFA'd players from the Marlins et al. Looking at the 2020 pitching staff, how can anyone be excited that they can stop runs? The sox offense is gonna be top 5 again. They're deep, and outside of Brock Holt and Mitchy Average Bags, didn't lose much that they cannot replace internally. So for 2020, the sox are the Rockies of old. They're gonna score some runs, they're gonna allow a lot of runs. They were an 84 win team in 2019. With the changes, they're trending towards that again.

Then you have to look at your financial situation. You have a CONSIDERABLE amount of money tied up in underperforming assets for the next 3 seasons. Eovaldi and Price account for $48 mil per year on the payroll and they're not worth half that. You have a brand new 5 year deal with Sale that looks bad from the start. The only long term contracts that look awesome right now are X-Bo and Vasquez. Heck, even JD couldn't drum up enough interest to walk away, and he is still a force with the stick. The financial picture clears considerably after 2022. Price, Eo, JDM are off the books. You will have needed to either extend or deal ERod by then. Devers enters his final arb season and Beni has his first FA season. But the slate will be wiped clean beyond X-Bo and Sale.

Then you have to look at your farm. The sox farm has some useful pieces. Dalbec could be an option out of the gate in 2020. Chavis graduated last year. Casas is a humongous mammoth with a bat. He could end up as the starting 1b in 3 years or so if he handles the higher levels and the more advanced pitching. Outside of Mata (who's upside is a 3 or so), the sox pitching is dead. Beyond Casas and Dalbec, only maybe Chatham and Duran (less so, IMO) look to have any now value. As far as a farm system is concerned, it's pretty bleak

Then you look outside the team. Your division has 2 buzz saws in it. The Rays are going to be good for awhile with their recent deals. As long as they keep dealing off expensive talents for cheap and hitting, they will be good. IMO, their model allows them to be relevant, but never a fool proof WS candidate. Then you've got the Yanks, who are the odds on favorite to win the WS. The Yanks are likely staring at a 3 yr window of their own before their cheaper talents get really expensive and get signed for a long time. The rest of the ALE has the Jays, who will be interesting with a revamped rotation and a core that is the envy of baseball with the stick, and the O's, who are still blowing everything up. In the AL, you have the Astros, A's, Indians, Twins and maybe even the White Sox as major competitors

Then you have the added wrinkle of the investigation. If the sox get what is expected and lose the picks Houston lost AND take an IFA hit, they won't be able to rebuild without a tear down.

So, what makes anyone think a tear down isn't in the cards? Bloom has done nothing to extend the window or prop it open. He has also done nothing to tear things down. But it seems to be coming

A good summary. I'd add Ward and Groome as possible pitching prospects with high potential.

[jacksonianmarch]

A good summary. I'd add Ward and Groome as possible pitching prospects with high potential.

Ward sounds like a swing man. Groome is probably gonna be pushed to relief so he isn't taken in the Rule V after this year. They need to move him up the ranks quickly and see what he has, or he will be gone

[moonslav59]

Ward sounds like a swing man. Groome is probably gonna be pushed to relief so he isn't taken in the Rule V after this year. They need to move him up the ranks quickly and see what he has, or he will be gone

We should have no problems with rule 5 for a while.

Weak farm.

Weak 40 man roster depth.

Rule 5 DEC 2020:


Christopher Acosta
Eduard Bazardo
Garrett Benge
Gary Calvo
Marino Campana
Pedro Castellanos
Kutter Crawford
Ricardo Cubillan
Chad De La Guerra
Jerry Downs
Jose Espada
Rio Gomez
Matthew Gorst
Jay Groome
Hunter Haworth
Tanner Houck
Matt Kent
Jose Larez
Adam Lau
Dominic LoBrutto
Nick Lovullo
Everlouis Lozada
Bryan Lucas
Charlie Madden
Alan Marrero
Joan Martinez
Bryan Mata
Tate Matheny
Alexander Montero
Oddanier Mosqueda
Brendan Nail
Brett Netzer
Tanner Nishioka
Emerson Ortiz
Michael Osinski
Yorvin Pantoja
Keibert Petit
Isaac Pinales
Antonio Police
Bobby Poyner
Roniel Raudes
Austin Rei
Jeremy Rivera
Kleiber Rodriguez
Jagger Rusconi
Kelvin Sanchez
Yasel Santana
Zach Schellinger
Alex Scherff
Nick Sciortino
Kervin Suarez
Jake Thompson
Josh Tobias

[moonslav59]

Ward sounds like a swing man. Groome is probably gonna be pushed to relief so he isn't taken in the Rule V after this year. They need to move him up the ranks quickly and see what he has, or he will be gone

Ward has been increasing velocity and added a cutter. He pitched 25 starts and 126 IP, this year, at age 23.

You might be short-changing him.

Groome is a big question mark, and you are right about 2020 needing to be his year to show serious growth.

You also did not mention Jimenez, but he is pretty far away.

[jacksonianmarch]

Houck and Mata are at least close enough to make sense. Groome is likely headed back to A ball. Bloom is a guy who builds depth. That depth isn’t helped when you’ve got a 40 man spots held for a kid who’s a couple years away. Typically high upside pitchers who lose valuable early development time get shifted to the pen to rapidly assess progress. Let’s just say, it wouldn’t surprise me at all

[moonslav59]

Houck and Mata are at least close enough to make sense. Groome is likely headed back to A ball. Bloom is a guy who builds depth. That depth isn’t helped when you’ve got a 40 man spots held for a kid who’s a couple years away. Typically high upside pitchers who lose valuable early development time get shifted to the pen to rapidly assess progress. Let’s just say, it wouldn’t surprise me at all

If Groome shows promise, we can make space on the 40 man. Right now, we have 17-20 guys we could lose without blinking.

If he's still in single A by season's end, it's highly unlikely anyone picks him, if he's not protected, unless he shows serious growth in '20.

[moonslav59]

I'd make this offer to the Dodgers:

Betts, Eovaldi & Workman

for

Pollock, Gonsolin, Stripling, Cartaya & Beaty

[notin]

If Groome shows promise, we can make space on the 40 man. Right now, we have 17-20 guys we could lose without blinking.

If he's still in single A by season's end, it's highly unlikely anyone picks him, if he's not protected, unless he shows serious growth in '20.

We have 3 brand new lefty specialist relief pitchers on the 40 man all added right before a 3 batter rule is implemented to make them obsolete

[moonslav59]

We have 3 brand new lefty specialist relief pitchers on the 40 man all added right before a 3 batter rule is implemented to make them obsolete

We have a lot of obsolete or near obsolete players on the 40 man roster plus deadwood contracts and one-year controlled players.

Would you fret, if we DFA'd or traded any of these guys for nothing special?

4 Salary Dumps or Deadwood:
Pedey
Price
Eovaldi
JBJ (one year left)

9 Mehs
Hembree
Lin
Velazquez
Brasier
Brewer
Reyes
Weber
Shawaryn
Osich


4 Players that would be missed but have just 1-2 years of team control left:
1
Workman
JD Matinez (likely opt out unless he gets hurt or declines sharply)
2
Barnes
Perez

That's 17 players out of 40, then these 9-12 recently added players to the list:
Matt Hall
Jeffery Springs
Austin Brice
Chris Mazza
Jonathan Arauz (rule 5)
Plawecki (2 more arbs)
Jose Peraza (2 more arbs)
Kyle Hart
Yoan Aybar
Marcus Wilson (likely Keeper)
CJ Chatham (likely Keeper)
Bobby Dalbec (Keeper)

It's clear we have over 20+ players with very little plus value, if any.

[moonslav59]

MLB Trade Values website assigns values to players and prospects based on their projected worth and contractual cost.

It's certainly not a perfect set-up, but there are some interesting data points to look at.

The Sox have just 8 players valued over 20.
127 Devers
91 Bogey
51 Betts
36 Beni
28 ERod
24 Barnes
23 Vaz
22 Casas (the only prospect)

We only have 5 from 10-19.9 (all prospects of recently graduated):
19.7 Dalbec
17.7 Chavis
12.4 Mata
12.1 Duran
10.6 D Hern

2 over 90/ 3 over 50/8 over 20/ 13 over 10

Here's what a few other teams have:

Braves (2 over 185!)
2 over 90/6 over 50/12 over 20/20 over 10 (9 are prospects)

Jays (2 over 120)
2 over 90/ 3 over 50/ 7 over 20/ 14 over 10

Dodgers (2 over 112)
2 over 90/ 7 over 50/ 11 over 20/ 20 over 10 (7 prospects)

Padres (1 over 120)
1 over 90/ 5 over 50/ 11 over 20/ 21 over 10 (10 prospects)

Orioles (1 over 79)
0 over 90/ 1 over 50/ 4 over 20/ 8 over 10

Yankees (1 @ 120)
1 over 90/ 3 over 50/ 9 over 20/ 16 over 10 (3 prospects)

[moonslav59]

Negative value Players:

Sox
-55 Price
-30 Eovaldi
-25 Pedey
-14 Castillo
-11 Sale

Some other teams:

Padres
-102 Hosmer
-73 Machado
-55 Myers

Giants
-40 Cueto
-34 Posey
-33 Longoria
-18 Belt
-14 Samardzija
-14 Crawford

Yanks
-125 Stanton
-28 Hicks
-9 Happ
-5 Cole
-5 Britton
-2 Tanaka
-1 Gardener

Cards
-38 Goldschmidt
-25 Fowler
-19 Carpenter
-13Molina
-7 Cecil
-6 Mikolas
-4 Martinez
-2 Miller

Cubs
-73 Heywood
-21 Lester
-21 Kimbrel
-9 Chatwood
-3 Descalso

[5GoldGloves:OF,75]

With the Padres in play, there may be more pressure for LA to cave and keep Betts out of a rival's uniform.

The prize is Mookie, and the cost is high-upside prospects. The Dodgers can keep Lux and May, but they need to give up Verdugo, Gray and Gonsolin. I don't care what the simulator says, what's the market value on a player who puts a team over the top?

LA won 106 games last year when none of the three farmhands listed were major factors. Trading them wouldn't crush the future; May is poised to replace Ryu, and Lux could be Rookie of the Year. With Betts, they'd be favorites to at least get back to the World Series... and be a favorite to sign him longterm.

Boston would receive a good young outfielder and pitching depth. If one of the two develops enough to take a regular turn in the rotation, they could still be competitive in 2020. Scoff away, but this is the minimum type of return I trust Bloom is still holding out for...

[moonslav59]

With the Padres in play, there may be more pressure for LA to cave and keep Betts out of a rival's uniform.

The prize is Mookie, and the cost is high-upside prospects. The Dodgers can keep Lux and May, but they need to give up Verdugo, Gray and Gonsolin. I don't care what the simulator says, what's the market value on a player who puts a team over the top?

LA won 106 games last year when none of the three farmhands listed were major factors. Trading them wouldn't crush the future; May is poised to replace Ryu, and Lux could be Rookie of the Year. With Betts, they'd be favorites to at least get back to the World Series... and be a favorite to sign him longterm.

Boston would receive a good young outfielder and pitching depth. If one of the two develops enough to take a regular turn in the rotation, they could still be competitive in 2020. Scoff away, but this is the minimum type of return I trust Bloom is still holding out for...

No way we get all 3. Maybe Gonsolin and Gray or Cartaya.

We need to get LA to take Eovaldi or Price with Betts. Gives us back Pollock to even up the money a little plus some prospects.

[moonslav59]

Betts, Eovaldi & Workman

for

Pollock
Maeda
Gonsolin
Gray
Wong
Beaty

[5GoldGloves:OF,75]

Betts, Eovaldi & Workman

for

Pollock
Maeda
Gonsolin
Gray
Wong
Beaty

I'd hold out for Verdugo, and they can keep Pollock and Maeda. LA won't need Verdugo if they get Mookie Betts; they'll have a starting outfield of Betts, Bellinger and Pederson (avg. 37 HRs), with Pollock and Chris Taylor as decent back-ups. The Dodgers will also want to keep Maeda, their #4 starter last year, since they lost Ryu and Hill.

[moonslav59]

I'd hold out for Verdugo, and they can keep Pollock and Maeda. LA won't need Verdugo if they get Mookie Betts; they'll have a starting outfield of Betts, Bellinger and Pederson (avg. 37 HRs), with Pollock and Chris Taylor as decent back-ups. The Dodgers will also want to keep Maeda, their #4 starter last year, since they lost Ryu and Hill.

Betts has one year. They'll need Verdugo after Betts bolts.

If the plan is to sign Betts, they can just wait a year and trade Verdugo for a position of need..

Pollock is to balance Eovaldi not Betts, but he can play OF to fill JBJ or Betts's slot.

(Sign Betts this winter and play Pollock in CF.)

If the Dodgers trade for Betts without giving us Pederson or Pollock, they'll be overloaded in the OF for 2020 but short in 2021. Trading Verdugo is NOT happening.

Dodger OF'ers:
Bellinger
Pollock
Pederson
Taylor
Verdugo

Betts makes 6 for 2020.

They'd probably want us to take Pollock & Pederson for Betts & Eovaldi, but no way on Verdugo.

I might rather have Gonsolin, Stripling and Gray than Gonsolin & Verdugo anyways.

[harmony]

I'd hold out for Verdugo, and they can keep Pollock and Maeda. LA won't need Verdugo if they get Mookie Betts; they'll have a starting outfield of Betts, Bellinger and Pederson (avg. 37 HRs), with Pollock and Chris Taylor as decent back-ups. The Dodgers will also want to keep Maeda, their #4 starter last year, since they lost Ryu and Hill.
The Dodgers won't want the underwater contract of Nathan Eovaldi in the deal when, according to one source, Mookie Betts and Alex Verdugo have the same surplus value:

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/players/7685/

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/players/9657/

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/players/8096/

[moonslav59]

The Dodgers won't want the underwater contract of Nathan Eovaldi in the deal when, according to one source, Mookie Betts and Alex Verdugo have the same surplus value:

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/players/7685/

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/players/9657/

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/players/8096/

Adding Eovaldi with Betts evens out the money for Pollock, who is out a job anyways after they get Betts.

Pollock fills an OF slot we'll need after losing Betts, and eventually JBJ.

[moonslav59]

I'd hold out for Verdugo, and they can keep Pollock and Maeda. LA won't need Verdugo if they get Mookie Betts; they'll have a starting outfield of Betts, Bellinger and Pederson (avg. 37 HRs), with Pollock and Chris Taylor as decent back-ups. The Dodgers will also want to keep Maeda, their #4 starter last year, since they lost Ryu and Hill.

The Dodgers have Buehler, Kershaw, Urias, Wood and Stripling. Eovaldi offers depth and is about as dependable as Maeda.

[harmony]

The Dodgers have Buehler, Kershaw, Urias, Wood and Stripling. Eovaldi offers depth and is about as dependable as Maeda.
Compare the lines for Nathan Eovaldi and Kenta Maeda over Maeda's four MLB seasons:

NE 69 G, 54 GS, 303.1 IP, 4.69 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, ERA+ 94
KM 137 G, 103 GS, 589 IP, 3.87 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, ERA+ 105

The 2020 Marcel projections:

NE 94 IP, 4.79 ERA, 1.34 WHIP
KM 137 IP, 4.20 ERA, 1.21 WHIP


https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/e/eovalna01.shtml

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/maedake01.shtml

[5GoldGloves:OF,75]

I was just going off Gammons' tweet from last night, when he quotes two NL execs speculating about Betts for "a straight prospect swap w/ LAD(3-4 of Verdugo, Ruiz, Downs, Busch, Gray, Gonsolin, Kasowski)" https://twitter.com/pgammo/status/1221025831943884800

Sox covet young pitching depth above all else, but would also need a player with at least star potential to replace the second-best outfielder in the MLB.

[notin]

With the Padres in play, there may be more pressure for LA to cave and keep Betts out of a rival's uniform.

The prize is Mookie, and the cost is high-upside prospects. The Dodgers can keep Lux and May, but they need to give up Verdugo, Gray and Gonsolin. I don't care what the simulator says, what's the market value on a player who puts a team over the top?

LA won 106 games last year when none of the three farmhands listed were major factors. Trading them wouldn't crush the future; May is poised to replace Ryu, and Lux could be Rookie of the Year. With Betts, they'd be favorites to at least get back to the World Series... and be a favorite to sign him longterm.

Boston would receive a good young outfielder and pitching depth. If one of the two develops enough to take a regular turn in the rotation, they could still be competitive in 2020. Scoff away, but this is the minimum type of return I trust Bloom is still holding out for...

I don’t think he is holding out quite that high. I mean, he’s talking about taking Wil Myers.

The big problem with selling Betts as a need to “push them over the top” is this Dodger team lost two World Series in the past three years to teams embroiled in cheating scandals They probably already think they were good enough to win twice.

If Betts had two years, Verdugo, Gray and Gonsolin is doable. But for one expensive year? More like Gonsolin, Downs and maybe Cartaya, plus someone who makes money to take back. Giving up all that for Bets is very risky, especially if something happens to Mookie.

Is there an example of a team unloading an equivalent package for one year of a player?

[notin]

I was just going off Gammons' tweet from last night, when he quotes two NL execs speculating about Betts for "a straight prospect swap w/ LAD(3-4 of Verdugo, Ruiz, Downs, Busch, Gray, Gonsolin, Kasowski)" https://twitter.com/pgammo/status/1221025831943884800

Sox covet young pitching depth above all else, but would also need a player with at least star potential to replace the second-best outfielder in the MLB.

Well, slow down.

1. Gammons never said the execs named those Dodger prospects. Or what the origin of that list was. Was it just some sample names Gammons threw together? Or did others name those as reasonable targets?

2. Does he also say what the execs replies were?

3. Bear in mind this was an “either/or” question that included a side deal for Price vs including him with Betts

4. And lastly, the only exec’s opinion that actually matters is Andrew Friedman. I’m sure those guys have no issues trading someone else’s prospects.

[notin]

Compare the lines for Nathan Eovaldi and Kenta Maeda over Maeda's four MLB seasons:

NE 69 G, 54 GS, 303.1 IP, 4.69 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, ERA+ 94
KM 137 G, 103 GS, 589 IP, 3.87 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, ERA+ 105

The 2020 Marcel projections:

NE 94 IP, 4.79 ERA, 1.34 WHIP
KM 137 IP, 4.20 ERA, 1.21 WHIP


https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/e/eovalna01.shtml

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/maedake01.shtml

You do realize he’s talking about as a SIXTH starter. Or not...

[S5Dewey]

With the Padres in play, there may be more pressure for LA to cave and keep Betts out of a rival's uniform.

The prize is Mookie, and the cost is high-upside prospects. The Dodgers can keep Lux and May, but they need to give up Verdugo, Gray and Gonsolin. I don't care what the simulator says, what's the market value on a player who puts a team over the top?

IMO this is exactly why Bloom isn't jumping through anyone's hoops to trade Mookie. Mookie is worth one Hell of a lot more to the Dodgers than he is to...well.... anyone else just because he's the guy who could bring the long-awaited flag to LA, and there aren't many teams who can both say that and have the prospects to give.

Yes, the Dodgers can hold out another year and acquire Mookie without giving up prospects but when they do that every player on the Dodgers becomes a year older. When you think you have the horses to win it all you go out and do what you have to do. You can't have too much talent.

[Larry Cook]

IMO this is exactly why Bloom isn't jumping through anyone's hoops to trade Mookie. Mookie is worth one Hell of a lot more to the Dodgers than he is to...well.... anyone else just because he's the guy who could bring the long-awaited flag to LA, and there aren't many teams who can both say that and have the prospects to give.

Yes, the Dodgers can hold out another year and acquire Mookie without giving up prospects but when they do that every player on the Dodgers becomes a year older. When you think you have the horses to win it all you go out and do what you have to do. You can't have too much talent.

Seems like everybody expects the Sox to trade Betts for pennies in the dollar, except hang’em Chaim!

[moonslav59]

Seems like everybody expects the Sox to trade Betts for pennies in the dollar, except hang’em Chaim!

Maybe that's why he's still here.

He's not a salary dump. The guy is worth at least double his contract.

[moonslav59]

I was just going off Gammons' tweet from last night, when he quotes two NL execs speculating about Betts for "a straight prospect swap w/ LAD(3-4 of Verdugo, Ruiz, Downs, Busch, Gray, Gonsolin, Kasowski)" https://twitter.com/pgammo/status/1221025831943884800

Sox covet young pitching depth above all else, but would also need a player with at least star potential to replace the second-best outfielder in the MLB.

It's one year of Betts.

Gammons is often wrong.

[Larry Cook]

Maybe that's why he's still here.

He's not a salary dump. The guy is worth at least double his contract.

So maybe hang’em chaim should have been looking to dump jd for pennies on the dollar this past off season?

Rule number 1 - do not trade homegrown players.

[moonslav59]

So maybe hang’em chaim should have been looking to dump jd for pennies on the dollar this past off season?

Rule number 1 - do not trade homegrown players.

It was an option. It's too late, now. Teams interested in JD have found other solutions.

Maybe in July, some team will come calling.

[5GoldGloves:OF,75]

It's one year of Betts.

Gammons is often wrong.

But to one team -- because that's all it will take -- that one year could be THE YEAR when they commit to do anything and everything to win it all.

And even some numbers guys here have said they'd sacrifice five years for a title or be happy with a championship every five years (I'm paraphrasing). What do you think is the percentage of Dodgers fans that would agree to those terms, after not having won since '88 and thinking they were robbed of two recent rings?

This is my Sunday morning in a morbid offseason, debating trading Mookie Betts for three prospects who probably will never even earn a combined career WAR as high as his before he sprints to Cooperstown...

[notin]

But to one team -- because that's all it will take -- that one year could be THE YEAR when they commit to do anything and everything to win it all.

And even some numbers guys here have said they'd sacrifice five years for a title or be happy with a championship every five years (I'm paraphrasing). What do you think is the percentage of Dodgers fans that would agree to those terms, after not having won since '88 and thinking they were robbed of two recent rings?

This is my Sunday morning in a morbid offseason, debating trading Mookie Betts for three prospects who probably will never even earn a combined career WAR as high as his before he sprints to Cooperstown...

We all get they’re not getting back a player as good as Mookie.

But it doesn’t matter what the fans want. Or other unnamed NL execs. Or Peter Gammons. Or the trade simulator. Or you Tom me. Does Friedman think he needs Betts to win a title?

[Bellhorn04]

But it doesn’t matter what the fans want. Or other unnamed NL execs. Or Peter Gammons. Or the trade simulator. Or you Tom me. Does Friedman think he needs Betts to win a title?

And that question is impossible to answer too, of course.

Heck, our friend Slasher has determined that the 2018 Red Sox would have won it all without Mookie.

[Bellhorn04]

If I was a Dodgers fan trying to analyze why we still haven't won it all, it's pretty hard to get around the fact that our first ballot HOF ace Kershaw has not had his best games at times we've needed them the most.

[5GoldGloves:OF,75]

If I was a Dodgers fan trying to analyze why we still haven't won it all, it's pretty hard to get around the fact that our first ballot HOF ace Kershaw has not had his best games at times we've needed them the most.

The City Council of LA would love to blame those dastards from Houston and Boston, but Rendon and Soto say Hi.

[moonslav59]

But to one team -- because that's all it will take -- that one year could be THE YEAR when they commit to do anything and everything to win it all.

And even some numbers guys here have said they'd sacrifice five years for a title or be happy with a championship every five years (I'm paraphrasing). What do you think is the percentage of Dodgers fans that would agree to those terms, after not having won since '88 and thinking they were robbed of two recent rings?

This is my Sunday morning in a morbid offseason, debating trading Mookie Betts for three prospects who probably will never even earn a combined career WAR as high as his before he sprints to Cooperstown...

I do think the Dodgers are willing to sacrifice a lot of the future to get Betts and make them the clear WS favorite, but we are talking about 5 years of team control for several players- some of which have already shown they can play at the ML level. There's a chance Verdugo wins Rookie of the Year. He, alone, could be all they need to get them over the hump.

If you are waiting for a package even close to what you say Gammons suggested, it won't ever happen.

We'll get nothing for Betts while winning 84-90 games, this year.

[notin]

If I was a Dodgers fan trying to analyze why we still haven't won it all, it's pretty hard to get around the fact that our first ballot HOF ace Kershaw has not had his best games at times we've needed them the most.

So the obvious solution is to unload the farm to get Betts?..

[Bellhorn04]

So the obvious solution is to unload the farm to get Betts?..

There is no obvious solution. Getting Betts for one year obviously guarantees nothing.

[notin]

IMO this is exactly why Bloom isn't jumping through anyone's hoops to trade Mookie. Mookie is worth one Hell of a lot more to the Dodgers than he is to...well.... anyone else just because he's the guy who could bring the long-awaited flag to LA, and there aren't many teams who can both say that and have the prospects to give.

Yes, the Dodgers can hold out another year and acquire Mookie without giving up prospects but when they do that every player on the Dodgers becomes a year older. When you think you have the horses to win it all you go out and do what you have to do. You can't have too much talent.

If Bloom wants to trade him to LA, now is the time. History has shown time and time again, two months of a position player isn’t worth much at the deadline. Two months of a starting pitcher or closer are a different story. But two months of a position player who makes a difference every day for some reason, not much...

[Bellhorn04]

I do think the Dodgers are willing to sacrifice a lot of the future to get Betts and make them the clear WS favorite

My guess is that even if the Dodgers get Betts, the Yanks will be WS favorites.

[notin]

IMO this is exactly why Bloom isn't jumping through anyone's hoops to trade Mookie. Mookie is worth one Hell of a lot more to the Dodgers than he is to...well.... anyone else just because he's the guy who could bring the long-awaited flag to LA, and there aren't many teams who can both say that and have the prospects to give.

Yes, the Dodgers can hold out another year and acquire Mookie without giving up prospects but when they do that every player on the Dodgers becomes a year older. When you think you have the horses to win it all you go out and do what you have to do. You can't have too much talent.

If Bloom wants to trade him to LA, now is the time. History has shown time and time again, two months of a position player isn’t worth much at the deadline. Two months of a starting pitcher or closer are a different story. But two months of a position player who makes a difference every day for some reason, not much...

[Bellhorn04]

If Bloom wants to trade him to LA, now is the time. History has shown time and time again, two months of a position player isn’t worth much at the deadline. Two months of a starting pitcher or closer are a different story. But two months of a position player who makes a difference every day for some reason, not much...

To quote Slash again, pitching = parades. I buy that in the limited sense that acquiring a pitcher at the deadline is more likely to be a difference-maker in the postseason.

[notin]

To quote Slash again, pitching = parades. I buy that in the limited sense that acquiring a pitcher at the deadline is more likely to be a difference-maker in the postseason.

... which is why the Sox are more likely to get something for Price than Betts in July...

[Bellhorn04]

... which is why the Sox are more likely to get something for Price than Betts in July...

Price, though, carries the baggage of 2 more seasons on his contract after this one. So he'd have to be really dealing, and even then probably only the wealthiest teams would be interested.

[notin]

Price, though, carries the baggage of 2 more seasons on his contract after this one. So he'd have to be really dealing, and even then probably only the wealthiest teams would be interested.

True. He is a lot, but if he pitches well (aka injury-free) for the fist 4 months of this season, he might seem less risky...

[jacksonianmarch]

If I was a Dodgers fan trying to analyze why we still haven't won it all, it's pretty hard to get around the fact that our first ballot HOF ace Kershaw has not had his best games at times we've needed them the most.

The Dodgers are good enough to win a WS. They don't "need" Betts to win a title. Betts upgrades a position, but it isn't like he is upgrading a black hole. He is upgrading a good position to an elite one.

[harmony]

... which is why the Sox are more likely to get something for Price than Betts in July...
A healthy David Price (although Mookie Betts may be a better bet than Price to be healthy come July).

[notin]

Although Mookie Betts may be a better bet than David Price to remain healthy.


Yeah but not really the point...

[Bellhorn04]

The Dodgers are good enough to win a WS. They don't "need" Betts to win a title. Betts upgrades a position, but it isn't like he is upgrading a black hole. He is upgrading a good position to an elite one.

I'm a little surprised the Dodgers haven't added a starting pitcher. I know they have some young guys coming.

One possibility is that the Sox and Dodgers talked about Price and the Dodgers said they'd like to see him pitch some real games first.

[jacksonianmarch]

I'm a little surprised the Dodgers haven't added a starting pitcher. I know they have some young guys coming.

One possibility is that the Sox and Dodgers talked about Price and the Dodgers said they'd like to see him pitch some real games first.

They have 2 aces atop their rotation. They believe May can take the next step and be a #3. Stipling and Maeda are a reliable 4-5. I think they were interested in only 2 pitchers on the market, MadBum and Cole. Cole got way more money and MadBum said he wanted to go to Arizona from the outset

[moonslav59]

The Best

Two-seamers and sinkers

Starters, min. 250 thrown
89 pitchers
1) .247 -- Eduardo Rodriguez, Red Sox
2) .268 -- Aaron Civale, Indians
3) .269 -- Brandon Woodruff, Brewers
4) .272 -- Julio Teheran, Angels
5) .273 -- Jack Flaherty, Cardinals

[moonslav59]

They have 2 aces atop their rotation. They believe May can take the next step and be a #3. Stipling and Maeda are a reliable 4-5. I think they were interested in only 2 pitchers on the market, MadBum and Cole. Cole got way more money and MadBum said he wanted to go to Arizona from the outset.

Urias (2.49 ERA in 80 IP), Wood (3.73 career ERA, but sucked last year) & Gonsolin (2.93 ERA in 40 IP)

[jacksonianmarch]

They have 2 aces atop their rotation. They believe May can take the next step and be a #3. Stipling and Maeda are a reliable 4-5. I think they were interested in only 2 pitchers on the market, MadBum and Cole. Cole got way more money and MadBum said he wanted to go to Arizona from the outset.

Urias (2.49 ERA in 80 IP), Wood (3.73 career ERA, but sucked last year) & Gonsolin (2.93 ERA in 40 IP)

Exactly, they have the depth both veteran and young, they have the guys at the top. They don't need a pitcher

[moonslav59]

Exactly, they have the depth both veteran and young, they have the guys at the top. They don't need a pitcher

They are deeper than even the guys we mentioned.

Kershaw
Buehler (112 value on Trade Values)
Urias (34)
Maeda (12)
Wood

Here's the ratings given by the Trade Values site on their pitching prospects and young depth:
62 May
19 Gonsolin
19 Stripling
18 Gray

8 Kolarek
7 Baez
5 Ferguson
3 White & Santana

Sox values:
28 ERod
24 Barnes
12 Mata
11 D Hern
6 Taylor
6 Walden
5 Workman
5 Ward
4 Groome & Houck

Gray would be out 3rd highest valued pitcher!

[Hitch]

A very nice outcome would be if you can trade Mookie and Price to the Dodgers for a good package of MLB ready players and a top prospect or two. See if you can trade Eovaldi to Padres for Will Myers. Swap bad contracts but save another $6m a year in luxury tax.

Lot of money saved, a lottery ticket (if a very expensive one) with Myers, some good prospects and some players ready to go in the team now, and we've got rid of two painful pitching contracts, both of which could hurt as badly with injuries going forward and given ourselves a lot of flexibility with the payroll.

Long shot, but it would be pretty good outcome for the Sox.

[moonslav59]

A very nice outcome would be if you can trade Mookie and Price to the Dodgers for a good package of MLB ready players and a top prospect or two. See if you can trade Eovaldi to Padres for Will Myers. Swap bad contracts but save another $6m a year in luxury tax.

Lot of money saved, a lottery ticket (if a very expensive one) with Myers, some good prospects and some players ready to go in the team now, and we've got rid of two painful pitching contracts, both of which could hurt as badly with injuries going forward and given ourselves a lot of flexibility with the payroll.

Long shot, but it would be pretty good outcome for the Sox.

Good, in theory- harder to do in practice.

[mvp 78]

Why would the Dodgers want Price?

[jacksonianmarch]

Right now, there is a lot of smoke with the sox and either LA or SD. I do not understand the SD aspect. They need pitching and won 70 games last year. They did add Davies, but I doubt that changes much for them. Maybe Richards ends up being an ace again and they patch it together, but I don't see them contending in the ALW with or without Betts. You only go out and get an uber talented, but high priced and rental Betts if you are going to be favorites for the division, and they wont be. But SD did send Urias to Milwaukee, so maybe they're gonna play fast and loose with their prospects? Not sure. Maybe they think that their farm is a limitless place of potential and they'll just get another top talent behind him? Not sure. But that team would be best served promoting from within and then going out on the FA market next year and getting a starter. Heck, I could DEFINITELY see an ERod to SD deal, but not a Mookie to SD deal. LA makes more sense. I get that LA doesn't want to part with Ruiz, May, or Lux. They likely don't have to. They can also mandate that the sox take Pollock, although Pollock's contract isn't a bad one per se, especially if healthy. Maybe the sox can buy a distressed asset for once instead of dealing one off? So be it. But if the sox dealt Betts alone for Pollock, they would have enough capital to require a now SP (like Stripling) and 2 prospects. Maybe they can pry Downs and Gray or Gonsolin and a lesser prospect as Gonsolin is MLB ready? Not sure, but it seems the Dodgers are the best bet

[mvp 78]

Right now, there is a lot of smoke with the sox and either LA or SD. I do not understand the SD aspect. They need pitching and won 70 games last year. They did add Davies, but I doubt that changes much for them. Maybe Richards ends up being an ace again and they patch it together, but I don't see them contending in the ALW with or without Betts. You only go out and get an uber talented, but high priced and rental Betts if you are going to be favorites for the division, and they wont be. But SD did send Urias to Milwaukee, so maybe they're gonna play fast and loose with their prospects? Not sure. Maybe they think that their farm is a limitless place of potential and they'll just get another top talent behind him? Not sure. But that team would be best served promoting from within and then going out on the FA market next year and getting a starter. Heck, I could DEFINITELY see an ERod to SD deal, but not a Mookie to SD deal. LA makes more sense. I get that LA doesn't want to part with Ruiz, May, or Lux. They likely don't have to. They can also mandate that the sox take Pollock, although Pollock's contract isn't a bad one per se, especially if healthy. Maybe the sox can buy a distressed asset for once instead of dealing one off? So be it. But if the sox dealt Betts alone for Pollock, they would have enough capital to require a now SP (like Stripling) and 2 prospects. Maybe they can pry Downs and Gray or Gonsolin and a lesser prospect as Gonsolin is MLB ready? Not sure, but it seems the Dodgers are the best bet

Seems like the Pads were just interested in jettisoning Myers' salary?

[Bellhorn04]

Why would the Dodgers want Price?

The Dodgers could want Price if they only had to pay about half his salary.

They have lots of room under the tax threshold, and you can't have enough pitching.

[mvp 78]

The Dodgers could want Price if they only had to pay about half his salary.

They have lots of room under the tax threshold, and you can't have enough pitching.

Price (1/2 contract) for Stripling and a prospect?

[moonslav59]

The Dodgers could want Price if they only had to pay about half his salary.

They have lots of room under the tax threshold, and you can't have enough pitching.

Yes, they have a lot of budget space, but I'm sure they don't want to fill it up with 3 years of Price's contract when they already are about 8-9 deep with SP'ers and good SP'er prospects.

To me, forcing them to take Eovaldi make more financial sense to the Dodgers than Price, but only if we take back Pollock's deal and a couple of their SP'ers (prospect or ML).

Something like Betts & Eovaldi for Pollock, Gonsolin, Gray and Cartaya as a starting point. Maybe Cartaya gets dropped or we have to add Workman or Walden to get all 4.

[moonslav59]

Price (1/2 contract) for Stripling and a prospect?

I'd rather have Stripling than Price, even if they got paid the same. Same with Gonsolin, Maeda and probably Gray.

[notin]

Price (1/2 contract) for Stripling and a prospect?

Are the Dodgers getting any better by replacing 2018 All Star Ross Stripling with Price?

[moonslav59]

Are the Dodgers getting any better by replacing 2018 All Star Ross Stripling with Price?

We'd have to pay $40M of Price's $32M deal to get Strippling.

[mvp 78]

Are the Dodgers getting any better by replacing 2018 All Star Ross Stripling with Price?

I was just trying to name a guy that could start for us, but wouldn't be in the Dodgers Opening Day rotation this year. Dodgers really used him like a swing man last year. Maybe they'd rather Price who can eat innings?

[notin]

I was just trying to name a guy that could start for us, but wouldn't be in the Dodgers Opening Day rotation this year. Dodgers really used him like a swing man last year. Maybe they'd rather Price who can eat innings?

No idea what they want, but to me Price for Stripling is a tough sell.

If they do want Price, it's probably just to lessen what it takes to get Betts. This is a team that lives and dies with its prospects.

And the question is, are they really just sending that message to Bloom? San Diego wants Betts, but also wants Boston to take Wil Myers (3 years $67mill). Instead of heaving more deadweight contracts back, the Dodgers are willing to take one on in order to get Betts. I would have thought not taking back Myers was enough appeal on its own, but the Dodgers appear to be going above and beyond...

[mvp 78]

I'm glad that Bloom is now weighing multiple offers at the very least. Hard to get the best return possible if you are only talking to one trade partner.

[a700hitter]

He should be hiring a manager.

[mvp 78]

He should be hiring a manager.

Which position will he play?

[jacksonianmarch]

Truck day is a week from today. He’s essentially got til truck day to hire someone. At this point, nary a rumor about an interview

[mvp 78]

Attn notin:

https://www.overthemonster.com/2020/1/27/21082944/boston-red-sox-mookie-betts-trade-jackie-bradley-jr-yasiel-puig

[mvp 78]

Truck day is a week from today. He’s essentially got til truck day to hire someone. At this point, nary a rumor about an interview

Do they need to package the manager in a crate on the back of the truck?

[Bellhorn04]

do they need to package the manager in a crate on the back of the truck?

lol

[a700hitter]

Do they need to package the manager in a crate on the back of the truck?The manager drives the truck.

[notin]

Attn notin:

https://www.overthemonster.com/2020/1/27/21082944/boston-red-sox-mookie-betts-trade-jackie-bradley-jr-yasiel-puig


His insanity might work to the Sox' benefit.

[jacksonianmarch]

Do they need to package the manager in a crate on the back of the truck?

Truck day is the last call before ST. You really should have a manager and a plan in place by ST

[notin]

Truck day is the last call before ST. You really should have a manager and a plan in place by ST

The Sox had both those things last year and how did that turn out?

[mvp 78]

Truck day is the last call before ST. You really should have a manager and a plan in place by ST

The plan is to hire internally. The next manager will already be down in Fort Myers when the players start showing up.

Honestly, the only difference right now is that players would report to a bench coach rather than a manager. This is supposed to be more concerning that getting under a salary tax and fielding a team?

[jacksonianmarch]

Seems like the Pads were just interested in jettisoning Myers' salary?

They can do that without Betts. Like many on here have suggested, the Padres need pitching. Maybe a Price for Myers deal works? Myers' contract is real interesting. He signed a 6 yr $83 mil deal, but it was really two deals baked into one. He got a $15 mil signing bonus broken up over the 6 years, so $2.5 mil a year. His first 3 years, his salary was $7 mil TOTAL. So with the $7.5 mil in signing bonus and $7 mil in salary, he was paid only $14.5 mil over the first 3 years of the deal. The rest of the deal, Myers is gonna make BANK. We are talking $68.5 mil over those three seasons, including the $1 mil buyout of his 7th year option. What makes him appealing to the sox is the $14 mil AAV. The sox could even kick Price, OTOH, is costing $93 mil over those final 3 seasons at $31 mil AAV. The sox would get $17 mil over AAV savings per year while only seeing an outlay savings of $25 mil

[notin]

They can do that without Betts. Like many on here have suggested, the Padres need pitching. Maybe a Price for Myers deal works? Myers' contract is real interesting. He signed a 6 yr $83 mil deal, but it was really two deals baked into one. He got a $15 mil signing bonus broken up over the 6 years, so $2.5 mil a year. His first 3 years, his salary was $7 mil TOTAL. So with the $7.5 mil in signing bonus and $7 mil in salary, he was paid only $14.5 mil over the first 3 years of the deal. The rest of the deal, Myers is gonna make BANK. We are talking $68.5 mil over those three seasons, including the $1 mil buyout of his 7th year option. What makes him appealing to the sox is the $14 mil AAV. The sox could even kick Price, OTOH, is costing $93 mil over those final 3 seasons at $31 mil AAV. The sox would get $17 mil over AAV savings per year while only seeing an outlay savings of $25 mil

That's one of the most commonly floated trade suggestions on this site, for all the reason you cited, along with the Padres getting a 2fWAR starter for a net cost $9mill per year for the next 3 years.

In fact, once before when I floated this same proposal, you questioned why San Diego would be interested...

[jacksonianmarch]

That's one of the most commonly floated trade suggestions on this site, for all the reason you cited, along with the Padres getting a 2fWAR starter for a net cost $9mill per year for the next 3 years.

In fact, once before when I floated this same proposal, you questioned why San Diego would be interested...

I floated it wondering why the Padres would take on $17 mil more per season for Price. But when I looked at the amount owed, it is more a lux tax fudge and really only $8 mil more per year for the Pads

[moonslav59]

I floated it wondering why the Padres would take on $17 mil more per season for Price. But when I looked at the amount owed, it is more a lux tax fudge and really only $8 mil more per year for the Pads

Yes, but the tax saving to the Sox is much bigger. That's why a deal involving Price or Eovaldi for Myers makes sense, even if we pitch in a few million. (Betts or no Betts.)

[mvp 78]

Maybe a Price for Myers deal works?

Do you have moon on ignore?

[moonslav59]

Do you have moon on ignore?

LOL.

notin and I have been discussing this for ages. It looks too good to both teams to be ignored.

If we make Betts part of the deal, I can't see how SD can say no.

The foundations....

Betts & Price for Myers, Patino & Campusano

Betts & Eovaldi for Myers, Lucchesi & Campusano

We can add Workman or cash, if needed.

[mvp 78]

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2020-zips-projections-boston-red-sox/

Fangraphs ZIPS projection article for the Sox is up.

[mvp 78]

Interesting note about Casas from the ZIPS projection:

ZiPS does like Triston Casas, and in terms of projected career WAR remaining, he’s the sixth ranked first baseman among the 20 teams that have had their ZiPS writeups so far, behind Cody Bellinger, Pete Alonso, Freddie Freeman, Miguel Sanó, and Josh Bell.

[moonslav59]

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2020-zips-projections-boston-red-sox/

Fangraphs ZIPS projection article for the Sox is up.

5.0 Sale seems encouraging, but the article says "I'd take the under."

3.3 ERod

3.0 Price (WOW!)

[mvp 78]

They can do that without Betts. Like many on here have suggested, the Padres need pitching. Maybe a Price for Myers deal works? Myers' contract is real interesting. He signed a 6 yr $83 mil deal, but it was really two deals baked into one. He got a $15 mil signing bonus broken up over the 6 years, so $2.5 mil a year. His first 3 years, his salary was $7 mil TOTAL. So with the $7.5 mil in signing bonus and $7 mil in salary, he was paid only $14.5 mil over the first 3 years of the deal. The rest of the deal, Myers is gonna make BANK. We are talking $68.5 mil over those three seasons, including the $1 mil buyout of his 7th year option. What makes him appealing to the sox is the $14 mil AAV. The sox could even kick Price, OTOH, is costing $93 mil over those final 3 seasons at $31 mil AAV. The sox would get $17 mil over AAV savings per year while only seeing an outlay savings of $25 mil

Paddack
Richards
Davies
Lucchesi
Lamet
Quantril (spot starter)

Seems pretty good for the Padres to me.

[mvp 78]

I thought the article below was an interesting read, so I highlighted what I thought were more important points without just copy and pasting random sentences.

Benny did struggle a bit last year and maybe and uptick in his hitting can offset the loss of Betts somewhat (especially if Verdugo comes back).

https://www.overthemonster.com/2020/1/30/21114678/boston-red-sox-season-preview-2020-andrew-benintendi

The Big Question: Is Andrew Benintendi’s 2019 strikeout rate the new normal?
For the last few years, the thing with Andrew Benintendi has been his power. What I mean by “the thing,” of course, is the thing that we have most complained about. Benintendi was the top prospect in baseball before he got to the majors, and with that obviously comes with huge expectations. He has been good for two of his four years in the majors and about average in the other two. A consistent factor hanging over said performance has been the lack of standout power, particularly in his good years where it’s held him back from being great.

At this point, though, I think I’m kind of coming to terms with the fact that Benintendi might just not develop that power. That’s not to say he can’t — I certainly think he can be a 20-homer hitter, at least — but that it’s not worth focusing on that and only that year in and year out. Benintendi, at his best, has enough skills to be a very good hitter without hitting the ball over the fence. In 2018, for example, he finished with a 122 wRC+ with only 16 homers.

Last year, though, that wRC+ fell to just an exactly average 100, which is both not great for a left fielder nor for someone with his pedigree. The power was part of that, too, as he hit only 13 homers and put up a .165 Isolated Power in a year when power was booming across baseball. What stands out more to me than the power, however, is the plate discipline.

This has long been the best part of Benintendi’s game at the plate, as he’s been able to control the strike zone and use that to his advantage to get good pitches to hit and spray line drives all over the field. Last year, his walk rate fell to 9.6 percent, a good rate but a full percentage point below his previous two seasons. His strikeout rate, meanwhile, jumped up to 22.8 percent, about seven percentage points higher than 2018 and about six higher than 2017. It’s that that I want to focus on today.


I said above that Benintendi can be good even without standout power, and it’s the ability to make contact that makes it possible. He was able to stay afloat at times in 2019 because his hit tool is good enough and he can turn batted balls into hits very well, but the ceiling is severely limited if he’s striking out like this unless there is more power. Last year at this time, I wondered about what Benintendi would look like if he sold out for more power. I don’t know if that’s what he was doing, but if it is, A) it didn’t work and B) I hated it.

Looking into the issues a little more, there were a few interesting points I want to touch on, starting with the obvious. Benintendi swung and missed a lot more. In fact, he swung a lot more, which may lend some credence to that idea of selling out for power. Per Baseball Savant, his swing rate jumped from 46 percent to 51 percent while the rate of pitches he saw in the zone fell from 48 percent to 46 percent. Predictably, a big part of his increased swinging strike rate came on pitches out of the zone.

Also predictably, after his good 2018 he also saw fewer fastballs, which makes sense. Pitchers aren’t going to be eager to feed a good hitter a bunch of fastballs. Also, it’s a lot harder to lay off breaking ball or offspeed pitch than a fastball. At least, that is what one would think. Interestingly, the swing charts don’t really reflect that with Benintendi. Look at the pitches he was chasing in 2019 compared to 2018.

There was a big jump in pitches down and in, which certainly would apply to breaking balls and offspeed pitches. The bigger jump, though, was up and away. Some of those were probably poorly located non-fastballs, but for the most part he was chasing fastballs. A similar trend is seen with the whiff rates.

Again, there are jumps everywhere, but the big one is up and away. This would suggest he had trouble with fastballs out of the zone more than any other pitch. The overall numbers don’t totally bear this out — his whiff rate (per Baseball Savant) against all three types of pitches jumped by roughly the same amount — but in terms of the pitches out of the zone it sure seems like the fastball was the big issue.

On top of all that, what was most interesting to me was the issue Benintendi had after falling behind early. In 2018, he struck out only 20 percent of the time after seeing a first-pitch strike. Among the 279 hitters who had at least 150 0-1 counts, that ranked 40th. Then, in 2019, that rate jumped up to 32 percent, ranking 183rd among 280 hitters. That is a massive jump in the wrong direction. Weirdly enough, as far as I could tell there was no substantial change in approach from pitchers after getting ahead 0-1. This was just Benintendi being a totally different, and worse, hitter under the same circumstances.

So, what does all of this mean? I get the impression — and this is total speculation — that Benintendi got a little into his own head, first trying to take a leap at the start of the year then pressing when things didn’t go well. That played out on a macro level judging by his end-of-year numbers and also on a more granular level with the numbers on 0-1 counts. Before Alex Cora left the Red Sox, he mentioned that Benintendi had come in last season in different shape. Not out of shape, but bigger. The way I read that was that he was trying to be someone he wasn’t. Tim Hyers said more recently that Benintendi has dropped weight ahead of this year, which seems like a good sign to me. To answer the question, I think Benintendi should cut down that strikeout rate, and the biggest factor just seems to be accepting who he is and being the best possible version of that, which is a very good player. Even if it’s short of being a great one.

[jacksonianmarch]

Paddack
Richards
Davies
Lucchesi
Lamet
Quantril (spot starter)

Seems pretty good for the Padres to me.

They need someone to take the reigns. Paddack was good, but he was babied. Richards is coming off TJS, so he needs to be brought along as well. Davies is a solid mid to back end guy. Lucchesi is a back end guy. Lamet, meh? Their division has a juggernaut. You don't shoot the shot for a rental without a realistic chance at the division. They aren't there

[mvp 78]

They need someone to take the reigns. Paddack was good, but he was babied. Richards is coming off TJS, so he needs to be brought along as well. Davies is a solid mid to back end guy. Lucchesi is a back end guy. Lamet, meh? Their division has a juggernaut. You don't shoot the shot for a rental without a realistic chance at the division. They aren't there

That seems to be the best they can do with their budget considering that MLB attendance has dropped 4 consecutive years and the Padres don't have a record breaking tv deal.

[jacksonianmarch]

That seems to be the best they can do with their budget considering that MLB attendance has dropped 4 consecutive years and the Padres don't have a record breaking tv deal.

They spent for sure. Maybe this is the year Machado returns to the .900+OPS guy. Maybe this is the year Hosmer returns to a .300/25/100 guy. Who knows. But when you are facing LA, who is loaded, you need more than hope. And right now, in that division, I still think the DBacks are better too. Heck, if the Rockies pitchers rebound, they have more firepower than anyone. Even with Betts, the Padres aren't a juggernaut and still may not make the POs. If you are a team on the rise but not quite there, you don't make a rental move and give up future pieces. Now signing someone? Go for it. But jettisoning talent? No way

[mvp 78]

They spent for sure. Maybe this is the year Machado returns to the .900+OPS guy. Maybe this is the year Hosmer returns to a .300/25/100 guy. Who knows. But when you are facing LA, who is loaded, you need more than hope. And right now, in that division, I still think the DBacks are better too. Heck, if the Rockies pitchers rebound, they have more firepower than anyone. Even with Betts, the Padres aren't a juggernaut and still may not make the POs. If you are a team on the rise but not quite there, you don't make a rental move and give up future pieces. Now signing someone? Go for it. But jettisoning talent? No way

They are only really making that trade to get rid of Myers' salary. Getting Betts for a year just would help ticket sales.

[moonslav59]

They are only really making that trade to get rid of Myers' salary. Getting Betts for a year just would help ticket sales.

Right or wrong, the Padres keep acting like they think they can win with "one more bid addition."

Betts is not a salary dump, so they shouldn't treat him like one by demanding we take Myers and pay a big chunk of his contract.

[mvp 78]

Right or wrong, the Padres keep acting like they think they can win with "one more bid addition."

Betts is not a salary dump, so they shouldn't treat him like one by demanding we take Myers and pay a big chunk of his contract.

The GM is on the hot seat. He has a limited budget and needs to get the owners to believe in him. If he doesn't get Betts, he's probably fired as the Padres will be a for sure also ran team.

[notin]

The GM is on the hot seat. He has a limited budget and needs to get the owners to believe in him. If he doesn't get Betts, he's probably fired as the Padres will be a for sure also ran team.

After the job he did on that farm system, he will be unemployed for potentially dozens of minutes...

[harmony]

The GM is on the hot seat. He has a limited budget and needs to get the owners to believe in him. If he doesn't get Betts, he's probably fired as the Padres will be a for sure also ran team.
If A.J. Preller gets Mookie Betts and experiences another losing season (after losing 92 games last year), then loses Betts to free agency, he's probably gone.

Mookie Betts might not be the solution to the Padres' woes.

[Slasher9]

Mookie Betts might not be the solution to the Padres' woes.

Booooo! this should have been "mookie betts is the solution to the Padres woes. or not."

[5GoldGloves:OF,75]

They spent for sure. Maybe this is the year Machado returns to the .900+OPS guy. Maybe this is the year Hosmer returns to a .300/25/100 guy. Who knows. But when you are facing LA, who is loaded, you need more than hope. And right now, in that division, I still think the DBacks are better too. Heck, if the Rockies pitchers rebound, they have more firepower than anyone. Even with Betts, the Padres aren't a juggernaut and still may not make the POs. If you are a team on the rise but not quite there, you don't make a rental move and give up future pieces. Now signing someone? Go for it. But jettisoning talent? No way

I'm going to agree with you here. Maybe SD is hoping Betts turns them into an instant contender like Yelich (and Cain) did for the Brewers. But I have to think (and hope) there's no way Bloom will deal Mookie to the Pads unless they cave on hoarding their "untouchables".

[mvp 78]

I'm going to agree with you here. Maybe SD is hoping Betts turns them into an instant contender like Yelich (and Cain) did for the Brewers. But I have to think (and hope) there's no way Bloom will deal Mookie to the Pads unless they cave on hoarding their "untouchables".

He only gets moved to the Padres is the deal gets them under the lux tax OR it's the only deal on the table.

Padres should have just worked out a quick deal before the Dodgers could roll up.

[5GoldGloves:OF,75]

Bloom has waited all winter, and isn't the GM who has the Dodgers' tail lights in his windshield to worry about. Bloom is sitting on a Hall of Famer; the worst that can happen is that he keeps a superstar in his prime for his entire salary-drive season.

Myers won't be stumbling through that gate in right field. Gore, Patino, Abrams...

[moonslav59]

Even if Myers turns into one of Blooms famed reclamation success stories, it’s still a bad deal for the Sox, unless they kick in some talent.

[notin]

If A.J. Preller gets Mookie Betts and experiences another losing season (after losing 92 games last year), then loses Betts to free agency, he's probably gone.

Mookie Betts might not be the solution to the Padres' woes.

And if he is well on his way to another 92 loss season on July31, and still holds on to Betts all the way to free agency, he should be gone...

[mvp 78]

@ChrisCotillo
Trevor Kelley DFA'd by Phillies.


Phillies had grabbed him after being put through waivers by BOS. Does Bloom bring him back?

[jacksonianmarch]

@ChrisCotillo
Trevor Kelley DFA'd by Phillies.


Phillies had grabbed him after being put through waivers by BOS. Does Bloom bring him back?

Bloom owes him no loyalty, so my bet is no. If Bloom had drafted and developed him, I would say, maybe

[mvp 78]

I just wonder if he passes through waivers and the Sox bring him back on a MiLB deal. He was a AAA All Star or some shit last year.

By the time he played in BOS last year, I had already tuned out the season.

[notin]

I just wonder if he passes through waivers and the Sox bring him back on a MiLB deal. He was a AAA All Star or some shit last year.

By the time he played in BOS last year, I had already tuned out the season.

He might have been an AAA All Star, but not much about him made me think he was much of an MLB pitcher, if one at all...

[mvp 78]

Travis Lakins was claimed by the Orioles.

[oldmaninthevegasdesert]

We lived in San Diego from 2005-2017, and the place is great for the weather, but it is just not a sports city. The Sox 1B plays in Chicago, courtesy of Padre management. I think there is something in the water, names like Alomar, McGriff, and the wizard of Oz come to mind in past fabulous giveaways in trades. They might be wising up though if the names I have heard being tossed around are true. I want NONE of them. The Dodger situation is different and there is a history between the G.M's, so I do see a possible trade there that involves Verdugo as the centerpiece. We shall see.

[oldmaninthevegasdesert]

Travis Lakins was claimed by the Orioles.

they need to order the bubbly

[notin]

Travis Lakins was claimed by the Orioles.

I liked Lakins a lot more than Kelley...

[mvp 78]

they need to order the bubbly

I do appreciate that the Sox traded Lakins for cash/PTBNL and the Cubs just waived him a few weeks later.

Free money.

[notin]

I do appreciate that the Sox traded Lakins for cash/PTBNL and the Cubs just waived him a few weeks later.

Free money.

Unless that PTBNL is Jason Heyward...

[mvp 78]

Unless that PTBNL is Jason Heyward...

The Cubs don't pick the player, the Sox do.

[notin]

The Cubs don't pick the player, the Sox do.

There's usually an agreed upon list at the time of the trade. In some cases, it's conditional based on the traded player. If he gets X AB or Y IP, it's this guy. And so on...

[mvp 78]

There's usually an agreed upon list at the time of the trade. In some cases, it's conditional based on the traded player. If he gets X AB or Y IP, it's this guy. And so on...

Yes.

[moonslav59]

O's claim Lakins.

[notin]

Yes.

There have been a couple fun cases in MLB history where the PTBNL was the original player traded, effectively meaning these players were traded for themselves (Harry Chiti, Dickie Noles, Brad Gulden and former Providence College and Red Sox SS John McDonald).

Rob Ducey was part of two seperate PTBNL trades between the Blue Jays and Phillies in 2000, but he was not actually traded for himself, despite being reported otherwise by ESPN at the time...

[Bellhorn04]

O's claim Lakins.

You're 19 minutes late.

[mvp 78]

https://ca.sports.yahoo.com/blogs/mlb-big-league-stew/john-mcdonald-%E2%80%94-who-was-once-traded-for-himself-%E2%80%94-retires-025408489.html

On July 22, 2005, McDonald was sent to Detroit in a conditional deal where compensation would be finalized months down the road. In November of the same year, the two sides settled the deal when Detroit sent cash to Toronto. A few days later, Toronto used that money to buy McDonald back, finalizing what was basically a three-month rental.

It's a very strange scenario, but it's not a first.

After digging the baseball history books, it turns out McDonald is one of six MLB players to be traded under these circumstances. Clint Courtney was the first in 1961. On January 24, Courtney was traded by the Baltimore Orioles to the Kansas City Athletics in a seven-player deal. On April 15, he was sent back to Baltimore to complete the deal. Harry Chiti (1962), Mark Ross (1985-86), Dickie Noles (1987) and Archie Corbin (1992-93) are the others.


LOLOLOL

[notin]

https://ca.sports.yahoo.com/blogs/mlb-big-league-stew/john-mcdonald-%E2%80%94-who-was-once-traded-for-himself-%E2%80%94-retires-025408489.html

On July 22, 2005, McDonald was sent to Detroit in a conditional deal where compensation would be finalized months down the road. In November of the same year, the two sides settled the deal when Detroit sent cash to Toronto. A few days later, Toronto used that money to buy McDonald back, finalizing what was basically a three-month rental.

It's a very strange scenario, but it's not a first.

After digging the baseball history books, it turns out McDonald is one of six MLB players to be traded under these circumstances. Clint Courtney was the first in 1961. On January 24, Courtney was traded by the Baltimore Orioles to the Kansas City Athletics in a seven-player deal. On April 15, he was sent back to Baltimore to complete the deal. Harry Chiti (1962), Mark Ross (1985-86), Dickie Noles (1987) and Archie Corbin (1992-93) are the others.


LOLOLOL

No mention of Brad Gulden?

From his B-R page:

November 18, 1980: Traded by the New York Yankees with $150,000 to the Seattle Mariners for a player to be named later and Larry Milbourne. The Seattle Mariners sent Brad Gulden (May 18, 1981) to the New York Yankees to complete the trade.

[notin]

The Mets signed Mountain Matt Adams to a minor league deal. Adams was one of the names I thought would be an upgrade over Moreland. Granted, not a huge one as Adams career OPS vs RHP (.816) isn't substantially higher than Moreland's (.789).

But he was cheaper. Also he is 3 years younger...

[moonslav59]

The Mets signed Mountain Matt Adams to a minor league deal. Adams was one of the names I thought would be an upgrade over Moreland. Granted, not a huge one as Adams career OPS vs RHP (.816) isn't substantially higher than Moreland's (.789).

But he was cheaper. Also he is 3 years younger...

It's deals like this that make me scratch my head and wonder.

[Bellhorn04]

The Mets signed Mountain Matt Adams to a minor league deal. Adams was one of the names I thought would be an upgrade over Moreland. Granted, not a huge one as Adams career OPS vs RHP (.816) isn't substantially higher than Moreland's (.789).

But he was cheaper. Also he is 3 years younger...


It's deals like this that make me scratch my head and wonder.

He had a -0.1 fWAR last year. I wouldn't worry too much about it.

[moonslav59]

He had a -0.1 fWAR last year. I wouldn't worry too much about it.

He's hit 61 HRs his last 955 ABs (.791 OPS)- 3 yrs. That's better than my expectations for Chavis.

His career OPS vs RHPs is .816. (31 HRs per 650 PAs)

Moreland is at .782 the last 3 years. He has a .789 career OPS vs RHPs.

Adams would have been good depth and might even be better than MM.

I'm not worried, because it's a lost season anyways, but I do wonder.

[mvp 78]

He had a -0.1 fWAR last year. I wouldn't worry too much about it.

Yeah, they just stuck with Mitch for familiarity.

[5GoldGloves:OF,75]

Yeah, they just stuck with Mitch for familiarity.

Agreed -- Moreland means more as a veteran presence in that clubhouse in flux than 9/1000th of OPS. He's decent around the bag, too (though I've never heard of Adams being indecent there; not like Psycho Lyons, anyway).

[moonslav59]

Agreed -- Moreland means more as a veteran presence in that clubhouse in flux than 9/1000th of OPS. He's decent around the bag, too (though I've never heard of Adams being indecent there; not like Psycho Lyons, anyway).

They coulda-shoulda got both.

[moonslav59]

Assuming no additions or subtractions or injuries, here's my guess on the opening day 26 man roster:

60 Day IL: Pedroia

13 Pitchers: Sale, ERod, Price, Eovaldi, Perez, Workman, Barnes, Taylor, Walden,DHern, Hembree (no options), Brice (no options) & Weber (no options)

2 Catchers: Vazquez & Plawecki
1 First base: Moreland
1 Second base: Peraza
1 Third base: Devers
1 Short Stop: Bogaerts
1 Left Field: Benintendi
1 Center Field: JBJ
1 Right Field: Betts
1 DH: Martinez
3 Utility: Chavis, Lin & Arauz (rule 5)

Almost sure to get some ML time:
P: Velazquez, Shawaryn, Brewer, Osich, Houck, Poyner, Johnson
NP: Dalbec, Chatham, Marco

[mvp 78]

Big assumption there

[moonslav59]

Big assumption there

Yes, but an assumption does not mean I am projecting no deals or injuries. It was only an exercise in showing where we stand, right now.

And, it doesn't look all that good, does it?.

[Larry Cook]

Assuming no additions or subtractions or injuries, here's my guess on the opening day 26 man roster:

60 Day IL: Pedroia

13 Pitchers: Sale, ERod, Price, Eovaldi, Perez, Workman, Barnes, Taylor, Walden,DHern, Hembree (no options), Brice (no options) & Weber (no options)

2 Catchers: Vazquez & Plawecki
1 First base: Moreland
1 Second base: Peraza
1 Third base: Devers
1 Short Stop: Bogaerts
1 Left Field: Benintendi
1 Center Field: JBJ
1 Right Field: Betts
1 DH: Martinez
3 Utility: Chavis, Lin & Arauz (rule 5)

Almost sure to get some ML time:
P: Velazquez, Shawaryn, Brewer, Osich, Houck, Poyner, Johnson
NP: Dalbec, Chatham, Marco


The real question that we need answered is the health of our starting pitchers?

[mvp 78]

Yes, but an assumption does not mean I am projecting no deals or injuries. It was only an exercise in showing where we stand, right now.

And, it doesn't look all that good, does it?.

They won 108 games in 2018 with a very similar roster.

[Bellhorn04]

They won 108 games in 2018 with a very similar roster.

I think the issue is that the starting pitching outlook seems much worse. The only pitcher who took a step in the right direction was E-Rod.

Pessimism abounds about the health of Sale, Price and Eovaldi. (Price may be gone of course.)

Johnson and Velazquez turned into rotten pumpkins etc.

[mvp 78]

My point is that people are quick to remember 2019 failures, but even quicker to forget 2018 successes.

Will they all evert to 2018 form? Probably not, but I won’t rule it out.

[Bellhorn04]

I'm feeling pretty pessimistic about the 2020 team's chances myself.

Especially if they trade Betts and Price, which seems fairly likely.

[mvp 78]

I'm feeling pretty pessimistic about the 2020 team's chances myself.

Especially if they trade Betts and Price, which seems fairly likely.

I understand. Everyone is allowed to feel how they feel. I’m trying to not get too down about it until the games actually start.

[Bellhorn04]

I'm not really down. But let's face it, if they trade Betts and Price, they're not all in for this year. It will confirm that 2020 is all about the tax re-set.

[moonslav59]

They won 108 games in 2018 with a very similar roster.

No, it was not "very" similar.

We are missing 4 of our top 9 pitchers by IP from 2018 (Porcello #1, Pom #7, Kelly #8 & Kimbrell #9), and 2 others (Johnson #5 & Velazquez #6) will not make the opening day roster and may not pitch at all for the Sox, this year. Also, no Wright #13 with a 2.68 ERA in 54 IP.

We are missing 7 of our top 15 batters by PAs (all over 140 PAs).

We are missing the manager.

Yes, we have some big stars remaining from that team, and guys like ERod, Devers and Vaz can legitimately be projected to have way better seasons than 2018, but questions and declines from 2018, based on age or health concerns, can and probably should be expected from most of the others.
(listed by most 2018 PAs or IP)
1. Beni .830 OPS
2. JD 1.031
3. Betts 1.078
4. Bogey .883 (could very well do better)
5. JBJ .717 (???)
8. Moreland .758

By IP
2. Price 3.58 (176 IP in 2018)
3. Sale 2.11(158)
5. Johnson 4.17 (Not even on 40 man roster)
6. Velazquez 3.18 (Pipe dream to repeat)
10. Barnes 3.65 (62 IP)
11. Hembree 4.20 (60)
12. Eovaldi 3.33 (54 & playoff hero)
14. Workman 3.27 (41) Expected to do better than 2018
15. Brasier 1.60 (34)

This is a vastly different team with way less depth and no current manager.

[notin]

My point is that people are quick to remember 2019 failures, but even quicker to forget 2018 successes.

Will they all evert to 2018 form? Probably not, but I won’t rule it out.

I don’t think the lineup matter much on 2018 vs 2019. In fact, the 2019 Red Sox outscored the 2018 team 901 to 876.

Even if you took Betts off that team, it’s still a good lineup.

The rotation, OTOH, has a bit much going on with injuries, ineffectiveness, and a complete lack of depth. The bullpen has some good pitchers, but could use improvement as well. Especially since having no starter depth exploded their workload...

[moonslav59]

I think the issue is that the starting pitching outlook seems much worse. The only pitcher who took a step in the right direction was E-Rod.

Pessimism abounds about the health of Sale, Price and Eovaldi. (Price may be gone of course.)

Johnson and Velazquez turned into rotten pumpkins etc.

Missing the 2018 Kelly & Kimbrel makes the pen look much worse, as well.

Missing Holt, Nunez, Kinsler, Pearce and others make our depth and flexibility look worse.

Having no manager is worse than what Cora did for the 2018 team.

Where are we better or even equal?

[Bellhorn04]

Missing the 2018 Kelly & Kimbrel makes the pen look much worse, as well.

Missing Holt, Nunez, Kinsler, Pearce and others make our depth and flexibility look worse.

Having no manager is worse than what Cora did for the 2018 team.

Where are we better or even equal?

Well, we will have a manager, presumably.

This discussion is kind of moot until we know if Betts and Price are gone anyway. That'll seal the deal.

[notin]

Missing the 2018 Kelly & Kimbrel makes the pen look much worse, as well.

Missing Holt, Nunez, Kinsler, Pearce and others make our depth and flexibility look worse.

Having no manager is worse than what Cora did for the 2018 team.

Where are we better or even equal?

The Sox biggest need is MLB-ready arms. Even bullpen arms. Barnes was very good unless he pitched consecutive days, then he was a Little League BP hurler. He can’t be the “go to” guy again if he can’t pitch 2 days in a row...

[Bellhorn04]

The Sox biggest need is MLB-ready arms. Even bullpen arms. Barnes was very good unless he pitched consecutive days, then he was a Little League BP hurler. He can’t be the “go to” guy again if he can’t pitch 2 days in a row...

We're not spending a dime on the bullpen, for the second year in a row. That's almost funny.

[notin]

The Sox biggest need is MLB-ready arms. Even bullpen arms. Barnes was very good unless he pitched consecutive days, then he was a Little League BP hurler. He can’t be the “go to” guy again if he can’t pitch 2 days in a row...

Holt, Nunez, Pearce and Kinsler have been replaced by Chavis, Lin, Peraza and another TBD (or Arauz if he hangs on). The Sox will have some bench flexibility this year...

[notin]

We're not spending a dime on the bullpen, for the second year in a row. That's almost funny.


The Sox have only spent about $10mill this entire offseason, which shows us that the spending is limited. Bloom has added a few nondescript arms like Hall, Springs, Mazda, and Brice. I’d like to see an MLB arm or two get in there as well.

Also, this team should DFA every player named Ryan...

[moonslav59]

I don’t think the lineup matter much on 2018 vs 2019. In fact, the 2019 Red Sox outscored the 2018 team 901 to 876.

Even if you took Betts off that team, it’s still a good lineup.

The rotation, OTOH, has a bit much going on with injuries, ineffectiveness, and a complete lack of depth. The bullpen has some good pitchers, but could use improvement as well. Especially since having no starter depth exploded their workload...

Comparing runs scored between 2018 and 2019 needs some context. The whole league went on a Home Run rampage- except us, although we did have more.

HRs per team
186.2 in 2018
225.9 in 2019 (21.3% increase)
(Sox went up at a 17.8% increase.)

Runs per team
721.0 in 2018
782.2 in 2019 (8.5% increase)

Sox Runs: 876 to 901 is a 2.3% increase.

We failed to keep pace with the league increase in runs from 2018 to 2019.

That's not to say our offense is bad or will be in 2020. I expect it to be top 4 or 5, as is, but we were 4th in the AL, last year and still finished way out of the race. We were first in 2018.

9 of the top 11 teams in runs scored from 2018-2019 were 2019 teams.

[notin]

We're not spending a dime on the bullpen, for the second year in a row. That's almost funny.

So with all the questionable pitchers on this team and the actual depth in the lineup, to me, nothing screams WHITE FLAG for the 2020 season than keeping Betts. And not only for 2020, but possibly 2021 and 2022 as well.

This team has needs and can afford to part with a hitter. Trading the most expensive one to fill some holes with quality and reset the finances makes the most sense long and short term...

[Kimmi]

Yeah, they just stuck with Mitch for familiarity.

I am very pleased that Mitch was re-signed.

Great clubhouse guy and veteran presence. He's good for Devers.

[notin]

Comparing runs scored between 2018 and 2019 needs some context. The whole league went on a Home Run rampage- except us, although we did have more.

HRs per team
186.2 in 2018
225.9 in 2019 (21.3% increase)
(Sox went up at a 17.8% increase.)

Runs per team
721.0 in 2018
782.2 in 2019 (8.5% increase)

Sox Runs: 876 to 901 is a 2.3% increase.

We failed to keep pace with the league increase in runs from 2018 to 2019.

That's not to say our offense is bad or will be in 2020. I expect it to be top 4 or 5, as is, but we were 4th in the AL, last year and still finished way out of the race. We were first in 2018.

9 of the top 11 teams in runs scored from 2018-2019 were 2019 teams.




This is true.

But if the Manfred Missile is back, developing hitters just got a lot easier and this only furthers my point that pitching is where the Sox need help...

[Bellhorn04]

So with all the questionable pitchers on this team and the actual depth in the lineup, to me, nothing screams WHITE FLAG for the 2020 season than keeping Betts. And not only for 2020, but possibly 2021 and 2022 as well.

This team has needs and can afford to part with a hitter. Trading the most expensive one to fill some holes with quality and reset the finances makes the most sense long and short term...

They're trying to trade Price too, of course.

[moonslav59]

Well, we will have a manager, presumably.

This discussion is kind of moot until we know if Betts and Price are gone anyway. That'll seal the deal.

We are talking about why we should trade Betts and Price, and your argument was that we are "very similar" to the 2018 team and should go for one last hurrah at the expense of the extended future.

We are NOT that close to the 2018 team and even got worse from the 2019 team.

These are part of the reasons supporting trading some players.

Of course, we should be worse in 2020 without Betts and Price (and maybe others), but the diea is to get ourselves better positioned for 2021 and beyond.

[5GoldGloves:OF,75]

Yes, but an assumption does not mean I am projecting no deals or injuries. It was only an exercise in showing where we stand, right now.

And, it doesn't look all that good, does it?.


It doesn't look all that bad. I mean, your entire starting lineup won the World Series two years ago except for the second baseman (I know there are key bench pieces missing, like Leon, Kinsler, and MVP Pearce -- who replaced Ramirez, the Opening Day #3 batter).

It's also 4/5ths of the same rotation -- I know, big IFs, but who honestly thought going into '19 that the starters wouldn't be a strength? Price and Eovaldi were both coming off the best clutch pitching in their careers, and expectations were they had figured it out and would continue to build and contribute. Sale was the most questionable, and even he had blown away the last three batters of the Series. Porcello took a step back and ERod a step forward; those are normal year-to-year developments... but lengthy injuries to a team's top three starters are not.

Yes, we're still missing an established closer like Kimbrel, but Workman's '19 WAR of 3.2 was better than Kimbrel's '18 of 2.3. It may be unreasonable to expect Workman to repeat a career year, but he has to be better than Kimbrel's '19 WAR of -0.5.

Some fans are down on Peraza but he's still 25 so let's give him a chance for a bounceback. He may not be Alomar, but he's not Nunez, either; Peraza had a 2.3 WAR in '18; Nunez was -1.1 in '18.

As moon, notin and others have pointed out, a big problem last season -- and I agree a big concern right now -- was/is pitching depth and a reliable bench... underrated components of a winner, the #20-30 roster guys. Who can forget Pokey, Mientkiewicz, Roberts and Pesky's "Leskanic, you sonabitch!" Now please help me forget Owings, Gorkys and Cashner.

Bloom hasn't altered the core, but made a lot of alterations to change the extra seats in the dugout and bullpen. Maybe that's the plan.

[moonslav59]

We're not spending a dime on the bullpen, for the second year in a row. That's almost funny.

That's some sick humor!

Many felt our pen actually over performed their expectations in 2018 and 2019.

We are mainly pinning our 2020 hopes on a return to form of Barnes, a rebound from Hembree and Brasier and continued career year-like seasons from Workman, Taylor & Walden. Or, maybe D Hern gains some control or someone like Houk pulls a Buttrey.

[moonslav59]

Holt, Nunez, Pearce and Kinsler have been replaced by Chavis, Lin, Peraza and another TBD (or Arauz if he hangs on). The Sox will have some bench flexibility this year...

I'll take the former, especially how they played in 2018. It's not even close, IMO.

[Kimmi]

I'm feeling pretty pessimistic about the 2020 team's chances myself.

Especially if they trade Betts and Price, which seems fairly likely.

And this is why I returned. You need a little jolt of optimism in your Red Sox forecast. :)

IMO, at least 2 of Sale, Price, and Eovaldi will have better seasons than they did last year, if not all of them. I'm not saying that they will return to prime form, but they will be good. Our offense, with or without Mookie will be good. I don't get the pessimism behind the upcoming season. If I'm not mistaken, we are currently have the 4th best ZIPS projection, though granted, we are 2nd in our own division.

[Kimmi]

I'm not really down. But let's face it, if they trade Betts and Price, they're not all in for this year. It will confirm that 2020 is all about the tax re-set.

I think including Price in any trade as a salary dump would be a mistake.

[Kimmi]

We're not spending a dime on the bullpen, for the second year in a row. That's almost funny.

Which is exactly the way it should be.

[moonslav59]

It doesn't look all that bad. I mean, your entire starting lineup won the World Series two years ago except for the second baseman (I know there are key bench pieces missing, like Leon, Kinsler, and MVP Pearce -- who replaced Ramirez, the Opening Day #3 batter).

It's also 4/5ths of the same rotation -- I know, big IFs, but who honestly thought going into '19 that the starters wouldn't be a strength? Price and Eovaldi were both coming off the best clutch pitching in their careers, and expectations were they had figured it out and would continue to build and contribute. Sale was the most questionable, and even he had blown away the last three batters of the Series. Porcello took a step back and ERod a step forward; those are normal year-to-year developments... but lengthy injuries to a team's top three starters are not.

Yes, we're still missing an established closer like Kimbrel, but Workman's '19 WAR of 3.2 was better than Kimbrel's '18 of 2.3. It may be unreasonable to expect Workman to repeat a career year, but he has to be better than Kimbrel's '19 WAR of -0.5.

Some fans are down on Peraza but he's still 25 so let's give him a chance for a bounceback. He may not be Alomar, but he's not Nunez, either; Peraza had a 2.3 WAR in '18; Nunez was -1.1 in '18.

As moon, notin and others have pointed out, a big problem last season -- and I agree a big concern right now -- was/is pitching depth and a reliable bench... underrated components of a winner, the #20-30 roster guys. Who can forget Pokey, Mientkiewicz, Roberts and Pesky's "Leskanic, you sonabitch!" Now please help me forget Owings, Gorkys and Cashner.

Bloom hasn't altered the core, but made a lot of alterations to change the extra seats in the dugout and bullpen. Maybe that's the plan.

There is no reason to expect healthy seasons from Sale,Price and Eovaldi.

Yes, we lost 1/5th of our rotation (Porcello), but much more than 1/5th of the IP from our top 5 SP'ers.

2019 IP as a SP'er (team; 806)
203 ERod
174 Porcello (22% of SP'er IP/ 25% of top 5 SP'er IP)
147 Sale
107 Price
54 Eovaldi
(We really lost 1/4th of our rotation with Porcello leaving.)

2018 (871 total)
191 Porcello (22% of SP'er IP/ 27% of top 5 SP'er IP)
176 Price
158 Sale
123 ERod
50 Eovaldi

Expecting healthy seasons from even 2 of our 3 questionable SP'ers is a stretch. Expecting repeat seasons from Workman, Taylor and Walden may be an even bigger stretch. We have no significant incoming support for 2 years in a row, and please don't count 2 weeks from Chavis in 2019 as a boost to our 2020 outlook.

[moonslav59]

I think including Price in any trade as a salary dump would be a mistake.

So, if he was a FA, you'd be okay with us signing him to $96M/3?

[Kimmi]

So, if he was a FA, you'd be okay with us signing him to $96M/3?

No, I wouldn't be. I was strongly against signing him to that contract in the first place.

That said, I am looking to compete in 2020. Our biggest area of concern is starting pitching. Price is a darn good pitcher, when healthy. Trading him obviously weakens our already biggest weakness. Unless there is a very good, cost-controlled starting pitcher coming back to us that I am unaware of, we need Price to contend.

[moonslav59]

No, I wouldn't be. I was strongly against signing him to that contract in the first place.

That said, I am looking to compete in 2020. Our biggest area of concern is starting pitching. Price is a darn good pitcher, when healthy. Trading him obviously weakens our already biggest weakness. Unless there is a very good, cost-controlled starting pitcher coming back to us that I am unaware of, we need Price to contend.

He is likely to help more than hurt in 2020, but his contract is killing us for 3 more years.

If I wouldn't sign him for $32M x 3, then it makes sense to trade him for a bag of balls.

His net value is negative. There isn't much on the market to sign and replace him with, but getting rid of that contract would improve our long term outlook by allowing us to make more of the types of moves you, Bloom and I like.

[oldtimer]

He is likely to help more than hurt in 2020, but his contract is killing us for 3 more years.

If I wouldn't sign him for $32M x 3, then it makes sense to trade him for a bag of balls.

His net value is negative. There isn't much on the market to sign and replace him with, but getting rid of that contract would improve our long term outlook by allowing us to make more of the types of moves you, Bloom and I like.

I am okay with trading Mookie for a couple of quality major league ready prospects. It does make us weaker in 2020 and I find it hard to see the vaalue of then resigning him in 2021 if the contract is something in the order of $35mil x 10. With a weakened team and with suspect starting pitching (health wise) we may be somewhat competitive, but I doubt strong enough to take down the Yankees and possibly not even compe3titive with the Rays or even the Blue Jays, who have good young talent. That's why I would agree to say goodbye to Price and the bloated $96 Mil left on his very questionable long term contract. Setting up for key improvements in 2021 is the most rational approach in my book.

Glad to see Kimi back posting. I mostly agree with her posts but not this time.

[Bellhorn04]

We are talking about why we should trade Betts and Price, and your argument was that we are "very similar" to the 2018 team and should go for one last hurrah at the expense of the extended future.


I didn't say that. mvp said we were similar to 2018.

[notin]

No, I wouldn't be. I was strongly against signing him to that contract in the first place.

That said, I am looking to compete in 2020. Our biggest area of concern is starting pitching. Price is a darn good pitcher, when healthy. Trading him obviously weakens our already biggest weakness. Unless there is a very good, cost-controlled starting pitcher coming back to us that I am unaware of, we need Price to contend.


Ah but what if trading Price freed up the roster spot and resources to sign Clay Buchholz?

I know your weaknesses ;)

[moonslav59]

I didn't say that. mvp said we were similar to 2018.

Sorry. My bad.

[moonslav59]

Ah but what if trading Price freed up the roster spot and resources to sign Clay Buchholz?

I know your weaknesses ;)

Ouch!

[Kimmi]

He is likely to help more than hurt in 2020, but his contract is killing us for 3 more years.

If I wouldn't sign him for $32M x 3, then it makes sense to trade him for a bag of balls.

His net value is negative. There isn't much on the market to sign and replace him with, but getting rid of that contract would improve our long term outlook by allowing us to make more of the types of moves you, Bloom and I like.

I don't really disagree with any of this. I agree that for the long term, dumping Price's contract makes more sense than keeping him.

As I said, however, I'm looking to contend in 2020. Therefore, I want to keep Price around.

[Kimmi]

I am okay with trading Mookie for a couple of quality major league ready prospects. It does make us weaker in 2020 and I find it hard to see the vaalue of then resigning him in 2021 if the contract is something in the order of $35mil x 10. With a weakened team and with suspect starting pitching (health wise) we may be somewhat competitive, but I doubt strong enough to take down the Yankees and possibly not even compe3titive with the Rays or even the Blue Jays, who have good young talent. That's why I would agree to say goodbye to Price and the bloated $96 Mil left on his very questionable long term contract. Setting up for key improvements in 2021 is the most rational approach in my book.

Glad to see Kimi back posting. I mostly agree with her posts but not this time.

I really don't think the FO has any intention of trading him, then re-signing him as a free agent. At least I hope not.

I understand people's desire to trade Price and rid us of his remaining contract. I really do. However, I think we need him to contend this year, more than we need Mookie.

[Bellhorn04]

Peter Gammons
@pgammo

Three different NL folks today predicted Betts-to-L.A. is "inevitable." Consensus deal:Alex Verdugo, Inf Jeter Downs, pitcher, maybe A prospect. Think P is LH Caleb Ferguson, 95 MPH FB/CB guy, 113-39 K-BB in 93.1 IP, eventual starter.

[Kimmi]

Ah but what if trading Price freed up the roster spot and resources to sign Clay Buchholz?

I know your weaknesses ;)

Now we're talking!

[mvp 78]

Peter Gammons
@pgammo

Three different NL folks today predicted Betts-to-L.A. is "inevitable." Consensus deal:Alex Verdugo, Inf Jeter Downs, pitcher, maybe A prospect. Think P is LH Caleb Ferguson, 95 MPH FB/CB guy, 113-39 K-BB in 93.1 IP, eventual starter.
Not the haul previously reported.

[Kimmi]

Peter Gammons
@pgammo

Three different NL folks today predicted Betts-to-L.A. is "inevitable." Consensus deal:Alex Verdugo, Inf Jeter Downs, pitcher, maybe A prospect. Think P is LH Caleb Ferguson, 95 MPH FB/CB guy, 113-39 K-BB in 93.1 IP, eventual starter.

I could live with this.

[mvp 78]

I could live with this.

Better than a 4th round pick for sure.

[moonslav59]

Peter Gammons
@pgammo

Three different NL folks today predicted Betts-to-L.A. is "inevitable." Consensus deal:Alex Verdugo, Inf Jeter Downs, pitcher, maybe A prospect. Think P is LH Caleb Ferguson, 95 MPH FB/CB guy, 113-39 K-BB in 93.1 IP, eventual starter.

I'd rather have Gonsolin than Downs. As for the prospect, I'd like Cartaya.

I'd be fine with the deal as presented here.

Maybe we can dump Price in another deal.

[Larry Cook]

Of all our “way too easily injured starters”, price is the one that has the best shot at bouncing back in 2020!

Or is our crack ownership team rolling over and playing dead before the season gets started because they are scared of the Yankees?

[Bellhorn04]

Of all our “way too easily injured starters”, price is the one that has the best shot at bouncing back in 2020!

Or is our crack ownership team rolling over and playing dead before the season gets started because they are scared of the Yankees?

You are too much, Lawrence.

[Bellhorn04]

Donaldson’s signing with the twins leaves a big hole at third base for Atlanta.

We should have the ability to move devers and price and all of price’s salary to Atlanta for a boatload of their prospects!

Not ideal, but solves a lot of problems for us.

Hey Lawrence, remember when you said this?

[notin]

I'd rather have Gonsolin than Downs. As for the prospect, I'd like Cartaya.

I'd be fine with the deal as presented here.

Maybe we can dump Price in another deal.

Ditto on much.

But bear in mind this “consensus” involves zero members of the front office of the Dodgers and the Red Sox. It’s not much more valuable than any wish list any of us can come to a “consensus” on...

[mvp 78]

You are too much, Lawrence.

People around here really love promoting the use of crack in the workplace.

[Bellhorn04]

People around here really love promoting the use of crack in the workplace.

LOL. And I promise I will never again disparage the team doctors.

[moonslav59]

Of all our “way too easily injured starters”, price is the one that has the best shot at bouncing back in 2020!

Or is our crack ownership team rolling over and playing dead before the season gets started because they are scared of the Yankees?

I think Sale has the best chance at bouncing back. His K rate was his best last year, and I think they babied him after we were out of it. Eovaldi ended the season pitching. Price is most iffy, to me.

[Slasher9]

Ah but what if trading Price freed up the roster spot and resources to sign Clay Buchholz?

I know your weaknesses ;)

uh oh. do i need to dig up my price v clay thread??!!
i would trade Price (and his contract) for Clay in a nano second.

[moonslav59]

Ditto on much.

But bear in mind this “consensus” involves zero members of the front office of the Dodgers and the Red Sox. It’s not much more valuable than any wish list any of us can come to a “consensus” on...

I'd be okay with Gonsolin and Ruiz or even Cartaya, which is light according to the simulator.

[Bellhorn04]

uh oh. do i need to dig up my price v clay thread??!!
i would trade Price (and his contract) for Clay in a nano second.

I want the Clay man too. Though I admit a lot of it is for entertainment purposes.

[Bellhorn04]

One thing that gets overlooked a bit about trading Mookie is that it will actually save the team $40 million or so, including the tax, assuming that if we kept Mookie we'd be over the limit by about $20-25 million.

[Slasher9]

One thing that gets overlooked a bit about trading Mookie is that it will actually save the team $40 million or so, including the tax, assuming that if we kept Mookie we'd be over the limit by about $20-25 million.

this is why the left side of JH bed will remain cold until LT is reset

[mvp 78]

uh oh. do i need to dig up my price v clay thread??!!
i would trade Price (and his contract) for Clay in a nano second.

Not this shit again....

[mvp 78]

LOL. And I promise I will never again disparage the team doctors.

You can say what you want. I just have PTSD from all the "crack medical staff" comments we've had here over the years.

[moonslav59]

One thing that gets overlooked a bit about trading Mookie is that it will actually save the team $40 million or so, including the tax, assuming that if we kept Mookie we'd be over the limit by about $20-25 million.

$40M almost makes it a no-brainer.

In theory, one could add that $40M to our best FAQ offer to Betts next winter.

If we can trade Betts for something decent and dump Price (and some cash) for Myers, we'll be sitting pretty going into next off season.

[mvp 78]

this is why the left side of JH bed will remain cold until LT is reset

How do you know which side of the bed he sleeps on?!?!?

[moonslav59]

How do you know which side of the bed he sleeps on?!?!?

He sleeps in the middle.

[kenmeister]

I want the Clay man too. Though I admit a lot of it is for entertainment purposes.

You must not remember how long he takes between pitches.

[Bellhorn04]

You must not remember how long he takes between pitches.

I'm referring more to the entertainment here on the forum. :cool:

[mvp 78]

I'm referring more to the entertainment here on the forum. :cool:

Bad content alert.

[notin]

I'd be okay with Gonsolin and Ruiz or even Cartaya, which is light according to the simulator.

If I'm the Dodgers, I trade Ruiz over Cartaya.

Granted, I don't have as much info to go on as they do. But it seems to be everything written about these two players, Cartaya is the superior defender, and Ruiz stock is actually now what it was when he was at the lower levels. Also, with Will Smith on the parent club, Cartaya's timeline makes him more likely to reach the majors when Smith is reaching free agency. (That does operate on the assumption he ever reaches them at all.) Ruiz, on the other hand, is already in the upper minors, and while he is certainly more likely to reach the majors than Cartaya, he finds himself blocked at his primary position.

[moonslav59]

If I'm the Dodgers, I trade Ruiz over Cartaya.

Granted, I don't have as much info to go on as they do. But it seems to be everything written about these two players, Cartaya is the superior defender, and Ruiz stock is actually now what it was when he was at the lower levels. Also, with Will Smith on the parent club, Cartaya's timeline makes him more likely to reach the majors when Smith is reaching free agency. (That does operate on the assumption he ever reaches them at all.) Ruiz, on the other hand, is already in the upper minors, and while he is certainly more likely to reach the majors than Cartaya, he finds himself blocked at his primary position.

I don't know much about either one, but the trade value site has this:

23.4 Ruiz

15.4 Cartaya

Since Vaz is under team control for a while, Cartaya might match up better with the timing of need.

[mvp 78]

I don't know much about either one, but the trade value site has this:

23.4 Ruiz

15.4 Cartaya

Since Vaz is under team control for a while, Cartaya might match up better with the timing of need.

Vaz is under contract, but he's had health and performance issues before. He's no sure bet.

[notin]

I don't know much about either one, but the trade value site has this:

23.4 Ruiz

15.4 Cartaya

Since Vaz is under team control for a while, Cartaya might match up better with the timing of need.

I would think so.

And Ruiz is not the same as he once was. He was #1 on the Dodgers system before 2019, but he has fallen down the ranks. Reportedly his hard hit rate dropped significantly this past year, and his defense is a work in progress, but nothing horrible.

Cartaya impressed more, but he is younger and much, much further away.

But if I'm the Dodgers, I am less likely to ever need Ruiz. Ruiz is still a good prospect, but maybe not what he once was. And the emergence of Will Smith made him superfluous and therefore should be more available in any trade...

[moonslav59]

Vaz is under contract, but he's had health and performance issues before. He's no sure bet.

Yes.

His offense is literally up and down year to year. His defense was supposed to be good, but his CERA was horrible compared to Leon.

Plawecki is signed for 2 years, so I still think Cartaya might match up better, but if Ruiz is the real deal, we could trade Vaz.

[harmony]

Yes.

His offense is literally up and down year to year. His defense was supposed to be good, but his CERA was horrible compared to Leon.

Plawecki is signed for 2 years, so I still think Cartaya might match up better, but if Ruiz is the real deal, we could trade Vaz.
Kevin Plawecki remains under team control for three arbitration seasons.

[moonslav59]

Kevin Plawecki remains under team control for three arbitration seasons.

Thanks for the correction.

[mvp 78]

Yes.

His offense is literally up and down year to year. His defense was supposed to be good, but his CERA was horrible compared to Leon.

Plawecki is signed for 2 years, so I still think Cartaya might match up better, but if Ruiz is the real deal, we could trade Vaz.

Not sure Plawecki factors in at all. That's getting too far in the weeds IMO.

[5GoldGloves:OF,75]

Yes.

His offense is literally up and down year to year. His defense was supposed to be good, but his CERA was horrible compared to Leon.

Plawecki is signed for 2 years, so I still think Cartaya might match up better, but if Ruiz is the real deal, we could trade Vaz.

Did you ever see a supposedly good defensive catcher miss so many catches on pitches than last year (and I'm not counting Tek or anyone else who couldn't catch a knuckleball)?

I honestly have to wonder if all the panic about constantly changing signs caused more cross-ups, wild pitches and passed balls -- because, to quote the infamous article "illegal sign stealing, particularly through advanced technology, is everywhere."

...you know, the story that got three managers fired (but none anywhere else -- case closed -- with not even an investigation of the previous team we know too well in this next quote: "One was a hitter who was struggling at the plate and had benefited from sign stealing with a previous team, according to club sources; another was a coach who wanted to help." I won't name names, either, but both of those guys are now unemployed, while "the previous team" is favored by the planet to win it all this year.

[moonslav59]

Did you ever see a supposedly good defensive catcher miss so many catches on pitches than last year (and I'm not counting Tek or anyone else who couldn't catch a knuckleball)?

I honestly have to wonder if all the panic about constantly changing signs caused more cross-ups, wild pitches and passed balls -- because, to quote the infamous article "illegal sign stealing, particularly through advanced technology, is everywhere."

...you know, the story that got three managers fired (but none anywhere else -- case closed -- with not even an investigation of the previous team we know too well in this next quote: "One was a hitter who was struggling at the plate and had benefited from sign stealing with a previous team, according to club sources; another was a coach who wanted to help." I won't name names, either, but both of those guys are now unemployed, while "the previous team" is favored by the planet to win it all this year.

He was certainly "off" last year. His 9 PBs doesn't look right, but 55 WPs were way more than any other year.
PB+ WP
24 in 458 innings 2014 (.052)
22 in 439 in 2016 (.050)
34 in 771 in 2017 (.044)
32 in 604 in 2018 (.053)
64 in 918 in 2019 (.070)

[notin]

Thanks for the correction.

Or not

[moonslav59]

Or not

Brutal or not.

[Slasher9]

I honestly have to wonder if all the panic about constantly changing signs caused more cross-ups, wild pitches and passed balls

.

this is a great point. bet there is some truth to this.

[Bellhorn04]

this is a great point. bet there is some truth to this.

I'd say no question. Not even Gary Sanchez can be as much of a stunned bunny as he looked on a lot of pitches last year.

[Michigan adam]

If given the choice, would you rather trade Mookie AND Price to get pool of prospects C(dodgers), Mookie alone for pool of prospects B(Dodgers) or Mookie alone for Pool of prospects A plus myers(SD) and not get under the threshold. Obviously A>B>C. I think I take Pool C to empty the salary commitment and allow them to rebuild more quickly out of FAgency next year. I would focus on higher talent, further away prospects if possible. Suffer through a year with holes(maybe take on a couple 1 year deals for short money to patch holes), go after a couple of the bigger FA's next year after reset AND move the long term commitment to price...

[5GoldGloves:OF,75]

If given the choice, would you rather trade Mookie AND Price to get pool of prospects C(dodgers), Mookie alone for pool of prospects B(Dodgers) or Mookie alone for Pool of prospects A plus myers(SD) and not get under the threshold. Obviously A>B>C. I think I take Pool C to empty the salary commitment and allow them to rebuild more quickly out of FAgency next year. I would focus on higher talent, further away prospects if possible. Suffer through a year with holes(maybe take on a couple 1 year deals for short money to patch holes), go after a couple of the bigger FA's next year after reset AND move the long term commitment to price...

If Mookie is gone, Price has to go -- but not necessarily in the same deal. A Mookie trade is a white flag on 2020, and if they're committed to changing the culture, next on the hit list has to be Price -- the anti-Betts as far as embarrassing the Red Sox with constant, bitter PR. Wipe it clean, Chaim.

[moonslav59]

If Mookie is gone, Price has to go -- but not necessarily in the same deal. A Mookie trade is a white flag on 2020, and if they're committed to changing the culture, next on the hit list has to be Price -- the anti-Betts as far as embarrassing the Red Sox with constant, bitter PR. Wipe it clean, Chaim.

I agree, but why stop at Price? If we are punting 2020, then let’s trade Workman and maybe Barnes, JD and Eovaldi- maybe at the deadline.

[notin]

I agree, but why stop at Price? If we are punting 2020, then let’s trade Workman and maybe Barnes, JD and Eovaldi- maybe at the deadline.

Maybe they are not punting 2020.

Bloom has built teams that do well after dealing away veterans before. He made the post-season without Chris Archer, for example...

[moonslav59]

Maybe they are not punting 2020.

Bloom has built teams that do well after dealing away veterans before. He made the post-season without Chris Archer, for example...

We’d probably still be pretty good with verdugo, Myers & Quantrill and no Betts & Price. Wait to the deadline on the others.
It begs the question on who are our sell now stock highest now candidates? I say, Workman, Walden, Chavis & Duran.

[Bellhorn04]

Maybe they are not punting 2020.

Bloom has built teams that do well after dealing away veterans before. He made the post-season without Chris Archer, for example...

Yes, I think Bloom has been given the dual assignment of getting under the cap and fielding a competitive team.

It's a lot to ask, but he just might be up to it.

[Kimmi]

I agree, but why stop at Price? If we are punting 2020, then let’s trade Workman and maybe Barnes, JD and Eovaldi- maybe at the deadline.

Trading Mookie does not mean we are punting the season.

Trading Mookie and Price probably does mean we're punting, though that would remain to be seen.

If we are punting, then it would make sense to trade whoever will not help us in 2021 and beyond.

The team will be competitive this year. In Bloom, I trust.