Devers

[Dalas21000]

Ok so, I know nobody will probably agree with me but hasn't Devers' defense been kinda iffy to a point to consider looking for another 3rd baseman?I think if there was any chance on trading Devers and getting Beltre back I might do it....I know Beltre is aging but I think he can play defense...and still has a bat....And hit well in Boston...Nunez ain't bad but I think Beltre has always been a very solid all around player

[Dalas21000]

Oops nevermind ....I just realized that Beltre retired

[Dalas21000]

Oops nevermind ....I just realized that Beltre retired

Bring him back anyway lol

[S5Dewey]

And actually his defense looks better to me this year than in the past.

[Kimmi]

Bring him back anyway lol

What the heck.

Bring Varitek back!

[Kimmi]

And actually his defense looks better to me this year than in the past.

IMO, Devers was brought up too early. He could have used some extra time in the minors to work on his defense. Instead, he is having to hone his defensive skills while in the majors, which is more difficult to do. I think we'll see improvement this year.

[Jack Flap]

Oops nevermind ....I just realized that Beltre retired

Awkward.

[Spitball]

With Moreland and Pearce each signed only through this year, and highly regarded third base prospect Michael Chavis looking like the franchise's future at third, I can see Devers being moved to first.

[moonslav59]

With Moreland and Pearce each signed only through this year, and highly regarded third base prospect Michael Chavis looking like the franchise's future at third, I can see Devers being moved to first.

I'm not so sure Chavis is a better defender at 3B than Devers, but we should know by the end of 2019.

[Bellhorn04]

With Moreland and Pearce each signed only through this year, and highly regarded third base prospect Michael Chavis looking like the franchise's future at third, I can see Devers being moved to first.

Welcome back!

[Slasher9]

With Moreland and Pearce each signed only through this year, and highly regarded third base prospect Michael Chavis looking like the franchise's future at third, I can see Devers being moved to first.

definitely a possibility but i fully expect Chavis to be traded by DD at some point this season.

[notin]

definitely a possibility but i fully expect Chavis to be traded by DD at some point this season.


I’d be more in favor of trading Dalbec, but certainly moving Chavis is a possibility...

[mvp 78]

Ok so, I know nobody will probably agree with me but hasn't Devers' defense been kinda iffy to a point to consider looking for another 3rd baseman?I think if there was any chance on trading Devers and getting Beltre back I might do it....I know Beltre is aging but I think he can play defense...and still has a bat....And hit well in Boston...Nunez ain't bad but I think Beltre has always been a very solid all around player

His defense is fine and getting better.

[mvp 78]

With Moreland and Pearce each signed only through this year, and highly regarded third base prospect Michael Chavis looking like the franchise's future at third, I can see Devers being moved to first.

Chavis is terrible at 3b. He isn't going to play their much going forward.

[jacksonianmarch]

I honestly think that Devers is your 1b in 2020 and Chavis ends up either dealt for parts this season or is a candidate to play a CIF/COF utility/DH role after JD opts out. Chavis is not a good defender at all. Dalbec might end up as your 3b of the future from a defensive standpoint, but his swing and miss tendencies muddy his offensive projection. There is a good chance DD fills 3b with a veteran guy who can produce 1.5-2WAR but lock up the defense and cost very little. Right now, Devers being forced into the 3b slot is clearly a stall tactic due to personnel. That kid is so thick in the legs and slow on the first step that he will never be defensively average at 3b. DD is just waiting for the personnel to clear before he puts him where he belongs long term. This is a Miguel Cabrera deal all over again (albeit the kid hasn't shown Cabrera type offense, but few have).

[Slasher9]

geez...i hope we can make the playoffs with such a shitty defensive 3bman. oh wait...nevermind....

[notin]

For all the gripes about Devers’ defense, he was the Red Sox Minor League Defensive Player of the Year in 2017. He must have some skills...

[moonslav59]

Right now, Devers being forced into the 3b slot is clearly a stall tactic due to personnel. That kid is so thick in the legs and slow on the first step that he will never be defensively average at 3b.

Devers has been improving his defense, so nothing is being "forced."

IMO, his biggest strength is his first step and quick reflexes. I totally disagree with you on that area.

To me, his weakness is in his range, which for 3B is not much of an issue, except when running down pop-ups and foul balls. Fenway's small foul territory, especially down the 3B line in short RF may help hide that drawback.

Note: I've been a big worrier about his defense and have suggested a move to 1B might be best (like when I advocated us signing Moose), but I saw some major improvement on defense, particularly down the stretch. His UZR/150 went from -11.5 to -5.2. If he can get near zero, he will likely stay at 3B, and Chavis may play 1B next year.

[SCM33]

Devers is sloppy, but, he still looks like a skinnyfat 16 year old (a teenager that still has babyfat).

He is so young, he still has potential to develop defensive skills, and this is coming from someone who predicted hed make 40 errors last year.

His bat needs to significantly develop. He has the power of a lumberjack, but he need to start approaching his AB's better. His numbers could moonrocket once he has an understanding of the strike zone and game situations.

[Nick]

Hey, I guess we should have signed Machado. Bunch of whinny asses on this board.

Not enough that our payroll is $243M.

We want PROVEN all stars at each position.

[SCM33]

Hey, I guess we should have signed Machado. Bunch of whinny asses on this board.

Not enough that our payroll is $243M.

We want PROVEN all stars at each position.

Maybe you haven't read the whole thread? Or maybe you don't know how to quote individual posts?

I just said he has all world talent and that I hope he develops it.

[Bellhorn04]

This thread should have been deleted on the grounds of being too dumb.

[SCM33]

This thread should have been deleted on the grounds of being too dumb.

Well, replacing a super talented prospect with someone who retired is stupid, but we can pretend like Dallas didnt say that stuff and just talk about Devers cant we?

[Bellhorn04]

Well, replacing a super talented prospect with someone who retired is stupid, but we can pretend like Dallas didnt say that stuff and just talk about Devers cant we?

Well, see, you're all full of piss and vinegar because you haven't posted for a long time. I'm here every day and I get a little jaded, I guess.

[SCM33]

Well, see, you're all full of piss and vinegar because you haven't posted for a long time. I'm here every day and I get a little jaded, I guess.

I am never out of piss and vinegar. Ever. A Redsox fan forum doesn't determine that. Be stronger. Whenever I have been here, whether it was everyday 14 years ago, or my short spurts in between, I have always been who I am.

Be you Bellhorn, Fuck the world :)

[Nick]

I am never out of piss and vinegar. Ever. A Redsox fan forum doesn't determine that. Be stronger. Whenever I have been here, whether it was everyday 14 years ago, or my short spurts in between, I have always been who I am.

Be you Bellhorn, Fuck the world :)

We all share the love for our Red Sox. I've been a fan since July 19th, 1967.

There has to be some intrigue about the season.

No doubt Devers could have used more seasoning in the minors.

But it's all about choices. We can't have it all. Having $33M, $20M, $17M and $15M starting pitchers mean you have to cut corners elsewhere.

Had everything gone according to the plan, we would be contemplating whether or not to grant Pablo Sandoval the option year in 2020. Well that didn't work out.

For me, sometimes you just live with a 22 year old going through ups and downs. Devers came up with some big hits in the playoffs.

I wished we had the bullpen Yankees have, but you know, about the choices Sox made, regarding where to spend the money.

I'm enjoying the prospect of seeing someone such as Hernandez. Lakins and Feltman pitch for us in 2019. it's very possible they all fall flat on their faces.

We've discussed Devers' shortcomings as a defender all last year. I'm not sure what do about it. Cut him?

[Spitball]

Welcome back!

Thanks, Bell! I decided to take break for a while and then had trouble logging back in for several months. Apparently, I was using the wrong password.

[Spitball]

We've discussed Devers' shortcomings as a defender all last year. I'm not sure what do about it. Cut him?


Devers has a lot of potential as a hitter, so we know he won't be cut loose anytime soon. His defense, as well as Chavis's, is a work in progress. Unless there is a trade, I assume one will logically end up at first. While Chavis is probably the best trade chip in the organization, his drug suspension takes some luster off his value. With the farm so depleted at this point, I assume Dombrowski will not trade Chavis until his value has been restored.

[moonslav59]

It's hard to say what value Chavis has right now, and if it will increase with a big season or half season in AAA.

We could really use a cheap 1Bman next year, which will help us keep a stud, but we can also use a solid RP'er now.

[notin]

It's hard to say what value Chavis has right now, and if it will increase with a big season or half season in AAA.

We could really use a cheap 1Bman next year, which will help us keep a stud, but we can also use a solid RP'er now.



The Sox do have an abundance of young, cheap corner infielders either in or on the cusp of MLB in Devers, Chavis and Dalbec. They only need two.

Devers isn’t likely going anywhere, which means either Chavis or Dalbec should be available. Chavis is the hitter with weak defensive skills. Dalbec is the better defender but is likely to turn into the second coming of Russ Branyan at the plate.

Of the two, I prefer moving Dalbec. While he’s most capable of the three to handle third base, it’s not like he’s Brooks Robinson over there. I think the Sox can take the chance that Devers will improve. Dalbec also doesn’t have Chavis’ steroid stigma. And his RHH power plays into the needs of several teams...

[oldtimer]

The Sox do have an abundance of young, cheap corner infielders either in or on the cusp of MLB in Devers, Chavis and Dalbec. They only need two.

Devers isn’t likely going anywhere, which means either Chavis or Dalbec should be available. Chavis is the hitter with weak defensive skills. Dalbec is the better defender but is likely to turn into the second coming of Russ Branyan at the plate.

Of the two, I prefer moving Dalbec. While he’s most capable of the three to handle third base, it’s not like he’s Brooks Robinson over there. I think the Sox can take the chance that Devers will improve. Dalbec also doesn’t have Chavis’ steroid stigma. And his RHH power plays into the needs of several teams...

One advantage of bringing Devers up last year was that he learned he had to be in better shape and from what Cora has said, he has done just that. I would expect that will help his agility and also help him avoid injuries. I'm waiting to see the roster posting for him but I suspect the 237 of last year will be 220 or lower this year. This kid could show the most improvement of any of the Sox in 2019.

As far as young players getting to the Sox next year or earlier, I see Chavis and Dalbec as possibly competing for 2 spots even if Devers sticks at 3rd. Ist is clearly going to be a place where substantial money will be saved with one of these guys taking over, but don't forget 2nd base which also may open depending on Pedroias season. They talk about Chavis as a possibility at 2nd. Also Casas is a top Prospect and may show his potential with a good a good year in the minors.

[notin]

If Chavis struggles at 3rd base, the more challenging 2b is a pipe dream. That’s such a Jim Hendry thing to do - just get 8 hitters and sort out the defense later. I know it would be great for Boston if everyone panned out, but an infield with Devers and Chavis on the right side might hit and hit well, but they will also give all the runs back.

Middle infield is definitely a concern for the Sox if Pedroia doesn’t pan out. Beyond Lin and Chatham, there isn’t much in the system above A ball. (Defensive whiz Jeremy Rivera might have an MLB future, but not as a starter.). But I don’t think the solution involves forcing together the puzzle pieces we have...

[jacksonianmarch]

One advantage of bringing Devers up last year was that he learned he had to be in better shape and from what Cora has said, he has done just that. I would expect that will help his agility and also help him avoid injuries. I'm waiting to see the roster posting for him but I suspect the 237 of last year will be 220 or lower this year. This kid could show the most improvement of any of the Sox in 2019.

As far as young players getting to the Sox next year or earlier, I see Chavis and Dalbec as possibly competing for 2 spots even if Devers sticks at 3rd. Ist is clearly going to be a place where substantial money will be saved with one of these guys taking over, but don't forget 2nd base which also may open depending on Pedroias season. They talk about Chavis as a possibility at 2nd. Also Casas is a top Prospect and may show his potential with a good a good year in the minors.

Casas is 3 years away. Figure Low A this year. A+-AA next year. AAA to maybe late season debut in 2021.

[notin]

Casas is 3 years away. Figure Low A this year. A+-AA next year. AAA to maybe late season debut in 2021.

And that’s assuming he doesn’t suck...

[jacksonianmarch]

People on here seem to think I am doubting Devers, which I am not. I saw all I needed to see of his bat in the post season and in that HR he hit off Chapman. The kid's bat is special. His bat speed is really good. He can go oppo, which is rare for lefty hitters these days. He has the tools to be a special hitter. I honestly think he is a 1b long term. I also think his bat can carry the position. His ceiling is a .900+OPS high AVG, high HR kid with okay enough OBP. If you throw that at 1b and he can pick it at the position, then you take it.

[moonslav59]

The Sox do have an abundance of young, cheap corner infielders either in or on the cusp of MLB in Devers, Chavis and Dalbec. They only need two.

Devers isn’t likely going anywhere, which means either Chavis or Dalbec should be available. Chavis is the hitter with weak defensive skills. Dalbec is the better defender but is likely to turn into the second coming of Russ Branyan at the plate.

Of the two, I prefer moving Dalbec. While he’s most capable of the three to handle third base, it’s not like he’s Brooks Robinson over there. I think the Sox can take the chance that Devers will improve. Dalbec also doesn’t have Chavis’ steroid stigma. And his RHH power plays into the needs of several teams...

We could probably use a cheap DH, if JD bolts, so keeping all 3 has some merit.

[moonslav59]

People on here seem to think I am doubting Devers, which I am not. I saw all I needed to see of his bat in the post season and in that HR he hit off Chapman. The kid's bat is special. His bat speed is really good. He can go oppo, which is rare for lefty hitters these days. He has the tools to be a special hitter. I honestly think he is a 1b long term. I also think his bat can carry the position. His ceiling is a .900+OPS high AVG, high HR kid with okay enough OBP. If you throw that at 1b and he can pick it at the position, then you take it.

I don't disagree, but I think he gets one more year at 3B to show continued improvement.

BTW, I know you have been critical of Andujar's defense, too, buts you seem to focus on Devers more, although I don't see what you post on Yankee sites.

[TylerD]

And actually his defense looks better to me this year than in the past.
This is how I see it. He is still very young and growing. I think he will evolve into a fantastic player. I don't agree with giving up on a player or going to someone else after one year. Devers has made some great defensive plays for us (Unfortunately he has made some bad ones too) and he can hit the ball extremely well. With the off season and spring training hopefully we see a more improved Devers this season though.

[TylerD]

What the heck.

Bring Varitek back!

Hmmmm, he might have to drop a pound or two lol.

[BillyWilliams]

I don't disagree, but I think he gets one more year at 3B to show continued improvement.

BTW, I know you have been critical of Andujar's defense, too, buts you seem to focus on Devers more, although I don't see what you post on Yankee sites.

While Andujar's defense certainly left something to be desired I feel his body type may make it easier for him to remain at 3rd rather than devers.

One thing's for sure, both of these kids can hit. Hopefully they both stick at 3rd so we can have the debate on who is better for years to come.

[BillyWilliams]

Red Sox: Bobby Dalbec, 3B
The power-hitting third baseman is in big league camp for the first time, taking aim at the replica Green Monster at JetBlue Park. Dalbec has the best raw power in Boston's farm system, and his batting practice sessions are a must-see event for fans roaming the back fields. But Dalbec isn't just about offense; he was a much-improved defender at the hot corner last season, displaying a quick first step and a strong arm. Look for Dalbec to start 2019 at Double-A and likely finish it at Triple-A. A September callup isn't out of the question. -- Ian Browne

[mvp 78]

Red Sox: Bobby Dalbec, 3B
The power-hitting third baseman is in big league camp for the first time, taking aim at the replica Green Monster at JetBlue Park. Dalbec has the best raw power in Boston's farm system, and his batting practice sessions are a must-see event for fans roaming the back fields. But Dalbec isn't just about offense; he was a much-improved defender at the hot corner last season, displaying a quick first step and a strong arm. Look for Dalbec to start 2019 at Double-A and likely finish it at Triple-A. A September callup isn't out of the question. -- Ian Browne

If Devers is moved to 1b, it's because they are keeping Dalbec around.

Casas is a 3b prospect in name only. I think he's a future 1b/LF guy.

[notin]

If Devers is moved to 1b, it's because they are keeping Dalbec around.

Casas is a 3b prospect in name only. I think he's a future 1b/LF guy.

Howlett and Northcut are more likely to play third than Casas. But none of this will matter until 2022 or 2023...

[SCM33]

Red Sox: Bobby Dalbec, 3B
The power-hitting third baseman is in big league camp for the first time, taking aim at the replica Green Monster at JetBlue Park. Dalbec has the best raw power in Boston's farm system, and his batting practice sessions are a must-see event for fans roaming the back fields. But Dalbec isn't just about offense; he was a much-improved defender at the hot corner last season, displaying a quick first step and a strong arm. Look for Dalbec to start 2019 at Double-A and likely finish it at Triple-A. A September callup isn't out of the question. -- Ian Browne


If Devers is moved to 1b, it's because they are keeping Dalbec around.

Casas is a 3b prospect in name only. I think he's a future 1b/LF guy.

As much as I have read, the Sox don't have a farm system. No reason to project Devers out that far. FWIW, if Devers goes anywhere, its DH. A shitty 3B'man doesnt make a good 1B'man. See Bobby Bonilla, Jim Thome, Mark McGwire for examples.

[jacksonianmarch]

I don't disagree, but I think he gets one more year at 3B to show continued improvement.

BTW, I know you have been critical of Andujar's defense, too, buts you seem to focus on Devers more, although I don't see what you post on Yankee sites.

Two reasons.

1. Andujar is more athletic than Devers and has a better arm. Devers issue is range. Andujar’s issue is timing. Andujar’s errors are almost always on throws or decisions. His errors are almost always when he has time. I think that’s due to his age more than anything else. If Andujar can sharpen up his decisions and not overthink when he has time, he will be a good defender

2. We have LeMahieu. If Andujar cannot improves and stays a true minus defender, we’ve got a defensive replacement who can hit on the roster already

[Larry Cook]

I like devers swing this spring. Shortened a bit and on the ball,

He has a legit chance at hitting .250 with 30 taters.

[moonslav59]

Two reasons.

1. Andujar is more athletic than Devers and has a better arm. Devers issue is range. Andujar’s issue is timing. Andujar’s errors are almost always on throws or decisions. His errors are almost always when he has time. I think that’s due to his age more than anything else. If Andujar can sharpen up his decisions and not overthink when he has time, he will be a good defender

2. We have LeMahieu. If Andujar cannot improves and stays a true minus defender, we’ve got a defensive replacement who can hit on the roster already

Fair response.

I guess you don't count Nunez as a replacement who can hit. (He may not be a good defensive replacement, but he is better than Devers on defense, when healthy.)

[jacksonianmarch]

Nunez is better except he’s got the same issue as Andujar. Good hands, enough range, but makes stupid errors. He’s also not the hitter LeMahieu is

[notin]

Nunez is better except he’s got the same issue as Andujar. Good hands, enough range, but makes stupid errors. He’s also not the hitter LeMahieu is


Sure he is. They’re both basically league average.

In the past 3 years, Nunez has an OPS+ of 98. In the past 3 years, LeMahieu has an OPS+ of 103. A very small difference at best, and one Nunez can probably make up simply by being healthier.


In the last 2 years, LeMahieu has an OPS+ of 91 and Nunez has an OPS+ of 95.

There isn’t much difference at the plate here...

[Slasher9]

Sure he is. They’re both basically league average.

In the past 3 years, Nunez has an OPS+ of 98. In the past 3 years, LeMahieu has an OPS+ of 103. A very small difference at best, and one Nunez can probably make up simply by being healthier.


In the last 2 years, LeMahieu has an OPS+ of 91 and Nunez has an OPS+ of 95.

There isn’t much difference at the plate here...

but LeHahieu is in Pinstripes. he is BETTER!!!!

[BillyWilliams]

Well, let's see.

Player A has 1 All Star appearance, had a -1.1 WAR last season and has contributed a grand total of 3.1 WAR in 9 seasons.

Player B has 3 All Star appearances, a batting title, 3 Gold Gloves, had a 3.0 WAR last season and has contributed 17.6 WAR in 8 seasons.

[moonslav59]

Maybe playing in Colorado helped just a tiny bit...

Career

.835 Home

.673 Away

.835 Colorado

.667 Yankee Stadium

(Note: I never said Nunez was better and even pointed out his defense was not good- just that it was better than Devers.)

[BillyWilliams]

Maybe playing in Colorado helped just a tiny bit...

Career

.835 Home

.673 Away

.835 Colorado

.667 Yankee Stadium

(Note: I never said Nunez was better and even pointed out his defense was not good- just that it was better than Devers.)



It certainly has helped his batting playing there. But I don't think there's any denying he is a better fielder than nunez.

I also read an article that gave the opinion that playing in coors field can sometimes hurt a batter because of the way they gear their swing. The article said this had an adverse effect on their away batting and that maybe not playing there full time would yield different results. Not sure I buy it, but if I can find the article I will post the link.

And stating that nunez's defense is better than devers really isn't saying all that much.

[notin]

but LeHahieu is in Pinstripes. he is BETTER!!!!


And they’re slimming!

[notin]

Well, let's see.

Player A has 1 All Star appearance, had a -1.1 WAR last season and has contributed a grand total of 3.1 WAR in 9 seasons.

Player B has 3 All Star appearances, a batting title, 3 Gold Gloves, had a 3.0 WAR last season and has contributed 17.6 WAR in 8 seasons.


Didn’t say Nunez was a better player. Just that he’s basically the same hitter.

[moonslav59]

It certainly has helped his batting playing there. But I don't think there's any denying he is a better fielder than nunez.

I also read an article that gave the opinion that playing in coors field can sometimes hurt a batter because of the way they gear their swing. The article said this had an adverse effect on their away batting and that maybe not playing there full time would yield different results. Not sure I buy it, but if I can find the article I will post the link.

And stating that nunez's defense is better than devers really isn't saying all that much.

I went out of my way to say Nunez was not a good defender.

I'm not sure why you keep going on like we have.

Nunez is an upgrade over Devers- not the extent LeMahieu is over Andujar, but nevertheless, he is.

Nunez mighty be a better hitter with the Sox than LeMahieu is with the Yanks based on the COL spilts and hiow well Nunez hits in Fenway.

BTW, LeMahieu has just 245 innings at 3B with a 0.0 UZR/150. Inside Edge has him as making zero "unlikely, remote or impossible" plays at 3B. Nunez had 365 innings at 3B just last year (+6.9 UZR/150), but to be fair, he's been a -5.5 over his career in over 2,000 innings at 3B. He has been a net plus 2.6 since 2016 (1460 innings). He has made 17% of the unlikely plays over his career.

[BillyWilliams]

I went out of my way to say Nunez was not a good defender.

I'm not sure why you keep going on like we have.

Nunez is an upgrade over Devers- not the extent LeMahieu is over Andujar, but nevertheless, he is.

Nunez mighty be a better hitter with the Sox than LeMahieu is with the Yanks based on the COL spilts and hiow well Nunez hits in Fenway.



Keep going on??

I mentioned it once..........

[moonslav59]

Keep going on??

I mentioned it once..........

I see two recent posts that bring defense into your argument.

The one you are thinking of.

The one where you mention WAR and Gold Gloves (not at 3B, I might add).

[FredLynn]

Sure he is. They’re both basically league average.

In the past 3 years, Nunez has an OPS+ of 98. In the past 3 years, LeMahieu has an OPS+ of 103. A very small difference at best, and one Nunez can probably make up simply by being healthier.


In the last 2 years, LeMahieu has an OPS+ of 91 and Nunez has an OPS+ of 95.

There isn’t much difference at the plate here...

Nunez is an adventure out there, especially at 3B. Maybe he can hit like LeMahieu, but as a defender....he sucks.

[BillyWilliams]

I see two recent posts that bring defense into your argument.

The one you are thinking of.

The one where you mention WAR and Gold Gloves (not at 3B, I might add).



Regardless, it hardly quantifies as "keep going on"...........

[moonslav59]

Regardless, it hardly quantifies as "keep going on"...........

Well, it seems like a lot over a point nobody made.

[moonslav59]

Nunez is an adventure out there, especially at 3B. Maybe he can hit like LeMahieu, but as a defender....he sucks.

He sucks at 2B, but when healthy, he's not really bad at 3B, at least over the last 3 years.

He's not someone I'd want as my FT 3B, and neither is LeMahieu.

I have faith in Devers. My hope is he can become close to average on defense within a year or two. If he hits like I think he will, I'm fine with a slight negative defense, but moving him to 1B may still end up being what is best.

He's still young enough to improve. I think he's got quick reflexes, which helps at 3B. His range is already +3.7 on fangraphs, but he makes bad throws too often. That's something that is easier to correct than range, where you either have it or you don't.

We'll know more after this year. We'll also know more about Dalbec & Chavis.

[BillyWilliams]

Well, it seems like a lot over a point nobody made.

Well when debating who the better player is fielding is part of the equation.........

[harmony]

On the topic of comps to a Yankee third baseman, RotoGraphs columnist Brad Johnson offers this:

Profile: During his rookie campaign as a 24-year-old, Ryon Healy popped 13 home runs in 283 plate appearances – a pace of about 30 over a full season. He also hit .305/.337/.524. Last season, a 23-year-old rookie hit 27 home runs in 606 plate appearances while batting .297/.328/.527. It was Miguel Andujar. Both players had slightly over a four percent walk rate with comparable ground ball and fly ball rates. Where Andujar differed is a five-point lower strikeout rate. Otherwise, the two could have been twins. What does this mean for Healy (or Andujar)? Nothing at all. It’s almost certainly a trivial coincidence. Since his shiny rookie season, Healy has trended steadily downward, finishing 2018 just shy of one win below replacement level. The Mariners will hope for a rebound because what else do they have to do with their 2019 roster. Perhaps they should consider setting Dan Vogelbach free. (Brad Johnson)
https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=15447&position=1B/3B

[moonslav59]

Well when debating who the better player is fielding is part of the equation.........

Nobody claimed Nunez was a better defender than LeMahieu. In fact, my original post on the issue clearly states Nunez is not a good defender, but is better than Devers, who we all agree has been pretty bad.

Your WAR numbers include a big defensive boost from his 2B defense.

[FredLynn]

He sucks at 2B, but when healthy, he's not really bad at 3B, at least over the last 3 years.

He's not someone I'd want as my FT 3B, and neither is LeMahieu.

I have faith in Devers. My hope is he can become close to average on defense within a year or two. If he hits like I think he will, I'm fine with a slight negative defense, but moving him to 1B may still end up being what is best.

He's still young enough to improve. I think he's got quick reflexes, which helps at 3B. His range is already +3.7 on fangraphs, but he makes bad throws too often. That's something that is easier to correct than range, where you either have it or you don't.

We'll know more after this year. We'll also know more about Dalbec & Chavis.

Nunez sucks defensively at any base, but since we were talking about 3B I used that as my example. As for Devers, I haven't been watching many ST games, but last year he had no concept of the strike zone. Unless he morphs into Vlad Guerrero or that changes he will never reach what many here call his "potential". So far I have seen no evidence of either.

[Bellhorn04]

Nunez sucks defensively at any base, but since we were talking about 3B I used that as my example. As for Devers, I haven't been watching many ST games, but last year he had no concept of the strike zone. Unless he morphs into Vlad Guerrero or that changes he will never reach what many here call his "potential". So far I have seen no evidence of either.

Wrong. Devers is going to be a great hitter.

[BillyWilliams]

Nobody claimed Nunez was a better defender than LeMahieu. In fact, my original post on the issue clearly states Nunez is not a good defender, but is better than Devers, who we all agree has been pretty bad.

Your WAR numbers include a big defensive boost from his 2B defense.

I never stated that you or anyone claimed nunez was a better defender.

The debate was who is the better player, sheesh.......

[BillyWilliams]

Wrong. Devers is going to be a great hitter.

Maybe ...... or maybe not.

[FredLynn]

Wrong. Devers is going to be a great hitter.

I didn't say that he might not become a great hitter. Maybe he will, maybe he won't. I will tell you this with certainty: he won't be a great hitter until he learns the strike zone. And so far he hasn't proven that he has learned that lesson.

[Bellhorn04]

I didn't say that he might not become a great hitter. Maybe he will, maybe he won't. I will tell you this with certainty: he won't be a great hitter until he learns the strike zone. And so far he hasn't proven that he has learned that lesson.

He might look bad in some at-bats, but his overall numbers really aren't that bad, especially when you consider his age.

[Kimmi]

He might look bad in some at-bats, but his overall numbers really aren't that bad, especially when you consider his age.

Devers is going to be our new #3 hitter.

[moonslav59]

Nunez sucks defensively at any base, but since we were talking about 3B I used that as my example. As for Devers, I haven't been watching many ST games, but last year he had no concept of the strike zone. Unless he morphs into Vlad Guerrero or that changes he will never reach what many here call his "potential". So far I have seen no evidence of either.

We must be watching different games, because I have watched every pitch of every Sox game for years and years.

[moonslav59]

I never stated that you or anyone claimed nunez was a better defender.

The debate was who is the better player, sheesh.......

I give up.

[SCM33]

Wrong. Devers is going to be a great hitter.

Great, yes.....but he has the chance to be more than that. If he ever gets a handle on the strike zone, or learns how to approach at bats......oh boy....everyone forgets. He was 21 last year! He debuted as a 20 year old!!!! Thats unheard of these days. The typical draft pick is 22/23 when then are drafted, then take 1-3 years before they make it to MLB. Think about that. The average prospect is 23-26 years old before he contributes. Devers was contributing before the age he was allowed to buy alcohol.


Maybe ...... or maybe not.

Or definitely yes.

[moonslav59]

He might look bad in some at-bats, but his overall numbers really aren't that bad, especially when you consider his age.

His numbers at ages 20-21 are very good to excellent.

672 ABs

.254 31 96

I'm pumped up on this kid!

[BillyWilliams]

Great, yes.....but he has the chance to be more than that. If he ever gets a handle on the strike zone, or learns how to approach at bats......oh boy....everyone forgets. He was 21 last year! He debuted as a 20 year old!!!! Thats unheard of these days. The typical draft pick is 22/23 when then are drafted, then take 1-3 years before they make it to MLB. Think about that. The average prospect is 23-26 years old before he contributes. Devers was contributing before the age he was allowed to buy alcohol.



Or definitely yes.

Or maybe not........

[BillyWilliams]

His numbers at ages 20-21 are very good to excellent.

672 ABs

.254 31 96

I'm pumped up on this kid!

I'm not so sure that an OPS of .760 qualifies as very good to excellent.

And his OBP last year of .298 needs to improve.

[Bellhorn04]

I'm not so sure that an OPS of .760 qualifies as very good to excellent.


Plus an .884 OPS in the postseason (51 PA's).

It's all small samples at this point, obviously.

[BillyWilliams]

Plus an .884 OPS in the postseason (51 PA's).

It's all small samples at this point, obviously.

Exactly, SSS.

I would think his .760 over almost 700 at bats is more indicative of where he's at right now.

[Slasher9]

698

[FredLynn]

We must be watching different games, because I have watched every pitch of every Sox game for years and years.

I am probably in the 80-90% range (watching games). Thats all I need to see that Devers is not yet mature as a hitter OR as a fielder. He may or may not take the next step. I admit that he has the potential to do so, but so do a lot of players.

[moonslav59]

I'm not so sure that an OPS of .760 qualifies as very good to excellent.

And his OBP last year of .298 needs to improve.

In terms of age, that's a good start at an age of 22-25, so I'd say it is at least very good to do it at ages 20-21.

Not many are even in the bigs at that age, and many are barely in AAA by then.

[moonslav59]

I am probably in the 80-90% range (watching games). Thats all I need to see that Devers is not yet mature as a hitter OR as a fielder. He may or may not take the next step. I admit that he has the potential to do so, but so do a lot of players.

He's got a long way to go on defense, no doubt. He showed growth his last year in the minors and quite a bit of growth in 2018. Nobody knows, if that will continue going forward, but he's young enough to think there's still time for significant growth.

Devers did struggle at the plate for much of 2018, and he missed some time with injuries, but at his age, that is expected. He has over 1 XBH for every 10 ABs over his short MLB career. That makes up for some of the low OBP, but I'm expecting improvement as he plays at age 22.

Bogey hit .684 at age 20 and .660 at age 21 before jumping to .776 at age 22. Betts jumped from .812 and .820 to .897 at age 23. Jackie Bradley Jr was in single A at age 21 and was promoted to AA during his age 22 season.

He's got the skills and the instincts to be a great hitter. This could be the year, but it may take longer.

To me, it's more about when than if.

[BillyWilliams]

I see devers booted another ball today......

[BillyWilliams]

In terms of age, that's a good start at an age of 22-25, so I'd say it is at least very good to do it at ages 20-21.

Not many are even in the bigs at that age, and many are barely in AAA by then.



An OBP of .298 is not good at any age...........

[Station 13]

I see devers booted another ball today......

I see you're still a troll.

[BillyWilliams]

I see you're still a troll.

Hardly trolling.

I made a comment about devers on the devers thread, which is a lot more than can be said for your post.

[Bellhorn04]

Hardly trolling.

I made a comment about devers on the devers thread, which is a lot more than can be said for your post.

He's right, that was a troll comment. It had no other purpose.

[Slasher9]

Devers > Andujar by a grip.

[Kimmi]

698

'Nuff said, Brother Slash.

[FredLynn]

I see devers booted another ball today......

Devers' problems have generally not been fielding the ball. The issue has been getting it to first base. I am not worried about him booting a ball today. I would be more worried if he consistently keeps airmailing the ball to first base.

[moonslav59]

An OBP of .298 is not good at any age...........

He K's a lot and dipped in OBP last year.

He's shown very good power and seems to rise to the occasion, when a hit is needed.

His overall numbers are very good for someone playing 2-3 years younger than most rookies.

[harmony]

Moments ago I was surprised that a fellow fantasy baseball owner dropped the long-term contract of Rafael Devers, incurring a $5 penalty, instead of retaining Devers at $10 in a 10-team, 27-roster mixed roto league with a $305 budget.

However, I hope Devers contributes for the Red Sox.

[Slasher9]

Moments ago I was surprised that a fellow fantasy baseball owner dropped the long-term contract of Rafael Devers, incurring a $5 penalty, instead of retaining Devers at $10 in a 10-team, 27-roster mixed roto league with a $305 budget.

However, I hope Devers contributes for the Red Sox.

This is PRO level trolling right here. Babe should take note in order to up his troll game.....
Well done Mr. Harmony

[harmony]

This is PRO level trolling right here. Babe should take note in order to up his troll game.....
Well done Mr. Harmony
Some compliments go unappreciated.

[Kimmi]

Devers' problems have generally not been fielding the ball. The issue has been getting it to first base. I am not worried about him booting a ball today. I would be more worried if he consistently keeps airmailing the ball to first base.

Devers will often make very difficult Gold Glove caliber plays that make you go "Wow!", then he'll turn around an boot a fairly routine play. I think he gets in his own head. He seems to do a lot better when he doesn't have time to think and just has to react instead.

At any rate, I expect a fair amount of improvement from Devers this year, both offensively and defensively.

[Kimmi]

Moments ago I was surprised that a fellow fantasy baseball owner dropped the long-term contract of Rafael Devers, incurring a $5 penalty, instead of retaining Devers at $10 in a 10-team, 27-roster mixed roto league with a $305 budget.

However, I hope Devers contributes for the Red Sox.

Bad move. One that said fellow fantasy owner will come to regret.

[FredLynn]

Devers will often make very difficult Gold Glove caliber plays that make you go "Wow!", then he'll turn around an boot a fairly routine play. I think he gets in his own head. He seems to do a lot better when he doesn't have time to think and just has to react instead.

At any rate, I expect a fair amount of improvement from Devers this year, both offensively and defensively.

He does make some unbelievable plays fielding the ball....but then often airmails it to 1B. He is likely to improve both in the field and at the plate, but until he does I am firmly in the camp of "show me".

[moonslav59]

He does make some unbelievable plays fielding the ball....but then often airmails it to 1B. He is likely to improve both in the field and at the plate, but until he does I am firmly in the camp of "show me".

He's already been a net plus on offense, despite the low OBP.

At worst, IMO, he becomes a very good DH or 1Bman.

Maybe I'm wrong to expect someone to improve from ages 22-26, but it is what I am doing with Devers.

I see his floor (not 2019 but career) as maybe .260 30 90.

I see his ceiling (not 2019) as maybe .285 45 130.

[harmony]

He's already been a net plus on offense, despite the low OBP.

At worst, IMO, he becomes a very good DH or 1Bman.

Maybe I'm wrong to expect someone to improve from ages 22-26, but it is what I am doing with Devers.

I see his floor (not 2019 but career) as maybe .260 30 90.

I see his ceiling (not 2019) as maybe .285 45 130.

Is Seattle third baseman Kyle Seager a decent comp for overall career WAR?

Seager, who is nine years older than Rafael Devers, has posted 27.9 bWAR and 27.8 fWAR in eight MLB seasons starting with his 53-game debut in as a 23-year-old in 2011.

Devers has posted 1.3 bWAR and 1.7 fWAR in two MLB seasons starting with his 58-game debut as a 20-year-old in 2017.

Seager has posted more annual value on defense than Devers has to date.

Can Devers average nearly 3 WAR per season over the next nine years to catch up with Seager at a similar age? Who takes the over and who takes the under?

Let me take cover before you fire off responses.:)

[moonslav59]

Is Seattle third baseman Kyle Seager a decent comp for overall career WAR?

Seager, who is nine years older than Rafael Devers, has posted 27.9 bWAR and 27.8 fWAR in eight MLB seasons starting with his 53-game debut in as a 23-year-old in 2011.

Devers has posted 1.3 bWAR and 1.7 fWAR in two MLB seasons starting with his 58-game debut as a 20-year-old in 2017.

Seager has posted more annual value on defense than Devers has to date.

Can Devers average nearly 3 WAR per season over the next nine years to catch up with Seager at a similar age? Who takes the over and who takes the under?

Let me take cover before you fire off responses.:)

I think it is a reasonable comp. Devers might do better, but he might do worse. He may never catch him of defense but may pass him on offense.

[harmony]

I think it is a reasonable comp. Devers might do better, but he might do worse. He may never catch him of defense but may pass him on offense.
How about a comp with third baseman Pablo Sandoval, who in 2008 made his 41-game MLB debut in his age 21 season?

Through their first two MLB seasons Sandoval and Rafael Devers posted these numbers:

PS 194 G, 633 PA, .333/.381/.543/.924, OPS+ 139, 5.4 bWAR, 6.1 fWAR
RD 179 G, 730 PA, .254/.311/.449/.760, OPS+ 100, 1.3 bWAR, 1.7 fWAR

Those first two seasons Sandoval played 132 games at third base, 43 at first base and 14 at catcher.

https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=5409&position=3B#fielding

A wide range of outcomes is possible for a 22-year-old who is difficult to project. Rafael Devers could become a perennial All Star or fall short of that status.

[moonslav59]

How about a comp with third baseman Pablo Sandoval, who in 2008 made his 41-game MLB debut in his age 21 season?

Through their first two MLB seasons Sandoval and Rafael Devers posted these numbers:

PS 194 G, 633 PA, .333/.381/.543/.924, OPS+ 139, 5.4 bWAR, 6.1 fWAR
RD 179 G, 730 PA, .254/.311/.449/.760, OPS+ 100, 1.3 bWAR, 1.7 fWAR

Those first two seasons Sandoval played 132 games at third base, 43 at first base and 14 at catcher.

https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=5409&position=3B#fielding

A wide range of outcomes is possible for a 22-year-old who is difficult to project. Rafael Devers could become a perennial All Star or fall short of that status.

Devers was younger, when he started out in the bigs.

I guess one could view Pablo as the floor for Devers.

[harmony]

Devers was younger, when he started out in the bigs.

I guess one could view Pablo as the floor for Devers.


To be precise, Rafael Devers was 486 days (about 16 months) younger than Pablo Sandoval was at their respective MLB debuts.

Given their starkly contrasting numbers in their first two MLB seasons, how can Pablo Sandoval be the floor for Rafael Devers?

[Bellhorn04]

To be precise, Rafael Devers was 486 days (about 16 months) younger than Pablo Sandoval was at their respective MLB debuts.

Given their starkly contrasting numbers in their first two MLB seasons, how can Pablo Sandoval be the floor for Rafael Devers?

Because we have the benefit of hindsight on Pablo's premature and precipitous decline.

[moonslav59]

To be precise, Rafael Devers was 486 days (about 16 months) younger than Pablo Sandoval was at their respective MLB debuts.

Given their starkly contrasting numbers in their first two MLB seasons, how can Pablo Sandoval be the floor for Rafael Devers?

Let's compare their numbers at the same ages and when the reach prime.

Pablo from age 23-27:

.292 BA (Maybe Devers ends up under this.)

103 HR in 3070 ABs (Maybe Devers ends up much higher here.)

.345 OBP
.464 SLG
.809 OPS

Maybe .809 is his floor over the next 6 years.

Counting all his seasons after age 22, Pablo hit .775. Maybe that's "the floor" going forward.

[harmony]

Let's compare their numbers at the same ages and when the reach prime.

Pablo from age 23-27:

.292 BA (Maybe Devers ends up under this.)

103 HR in 3070 ABs (Maybe Devers ends up much higher here.)

.345 OBP
.464 SLG
.809 OPS

Maybe .809 is his floor over the next 6 years.

Counting all his seasons after age 22, Pablo hit .775. Maybe that's "the floor" going forward.

Perhaps those are the optimistic mid-range projections.

Rafael Devers' trajectory may contrast with that of Pablo Sandoval, who nonetheless made two All Star appearances and helped the San Francisco Giants to three World Series titles.

Sandoval was a young phenomenon who never cratered until joining the Red Sox. Compare the early careers of Sandoval and Mookie Betts. Sandoval, who debuted with 41 games in his age 21 season, and Betts, who debuted with 52 games in his age 21 season, posted these lines over their first two seasons:

PS 194 G, 787 PA, .333/.381/.543/.924, OPS+ 139, 5.4 bWAR
MB 197 G, 867 PA, .291/.348/.471/.818, OPS+ 119, 8.1 bWAR

Sandoval finished seventh in the National League MVP voting his second season while Betts finished 19th in the American League MVP voting his second season.

Neither Devers nor Sandoval has the defensive prowess of Mookie Betts.

Devers' floor is unlikely to be a player who outhit Betts at similar ages.

[moonslav59]

Perhaps those are the optimistic mid-range projections.

Rafael Devers' trajectory may contrast with that of Pablo Sandoval, who nonetheless made two All Star appearances and helped the San Francisco Giants to three World Series titles.

Sandoval was a young phenomenon who never cratered until joining the Red Sox. Compare the early careers of Sandoval and Mookie Betts. Sandoval, who debuted with 41 games in his age 21 season, and Betts, who debuted with 52 games in his age 21 season, posted these lines over their first two seasons:

PS 194 G, 787 PA, .333/.381/.543/.924, OPS+ 139, 5.4 bWAR
MB 197 G, 867 PA, .291/.348/.471/.818, OPS+ 119, 8.1 bWAR

Sandoval finished seventh in the National League MVP voting his second season while Betts finished 19th in the American League MVP voting his second season.

Neither Devers nor Sandoval has the defensive prowess of Mookie Betts.

Devers' floor is unlikely to be a player who outhit Betts at similar ages.

Devers will end up with a career OPS higher than .777. This Betts comp is not related.

We're talking about Devers' career floor and ceiling.

I don't think saying .777 might be his floor is all that whacky.

He's at .769 by age 21.

Geesh!

[Bellhorn04]

Perhaps those are the optimistic mid-range projections.

Rafael Devers' trajectory may contrast with that of Pablo Sandoval, who nonetheless made two All Star appearances and helped the San Francisco Giants to three World Series titles.

Sandoval was a young phenomenon who never cratered until joining the Red Sox. Compare the early careers of Sandoval and Mookie Betts. Sandoval, who debuted with 41 games in his age 21 season, and Betts, who debuted with 52 games in his age 21 season, posted these lines over their first two seasons:

PS 194 G, 787 PA, .333/.381/.543/.924, OPS+ 139, 5.4 bWAR
MB 197 G, 867 PA, .291/.348/.471/.818, OPS+ 119, 8.1 bWAR

Sandoval finished seventh in the National League MVP voting his second season while Betts finished 19th in the American League MVP voting his second season.

Neither Devers nor Sandoval has the defensive prowess of Mookie Betts.

Devers' floor is unlikely to be a player who outhit Betts at similar ages.

harmony, a personal question here, hopefully not an offensive one.

When was the last time you said something like: 'Man, I think this guy is really gonna be good!'

Can you remember back that far? Did it ever even happen? :)

[moonslav59]

harmony, a personal question here, hopefully not an offensive one.

When was the last time you said something like: 'Man, I think this guy is really gonna be good!'

Can you remember back that far? Did it ever even happen? :)

There's no such thing as hope, even if it based on plenty of supporting data.

[harmony]

harmony, a personal question here, hopefully not an offensive one.

When was the last time you said something like: 'Man, I think this guy is really gonna be good!'

Can you remember back that far? Did it ever even happen? :)
I defended Sandy Leon last week:

https://www.talksox.com/forum/threads/19135-Blake-Swihart?p=1224711#post1224711

Over the past three years I've typically held a higher opinion of Jackie Bradley Jr. than many posters to this forum. I currently view Ryan Brasier and Jenrry Mejia as underrated.

I generally find prospects overvalued with the proliferation of prospect lists over the past two decades. My opinion may be jaded by the inability of the Seattle Mariners to develop touted prospects.

Mookie Betts caught my attention in 2014 with his stellar 61/50 BB/K split in the minors (the year before Devers had a concerning 24/84 BB/K split in the low minors).

Thank you for the respectful question.

[notin]

Some prospects are worth getting excited about, even with mediocre ceilings. The ability to play competently at the Major League level while making minimum wage is an undervalued skill in itself...

[notin]

harmony, a personal question here, hopefully not an offensive one.

When was the last time you said something like: 'Man, I think this guy is really gonna be good!'

Can you remember back that far? Did it ever even happen? :)


Let’s b fair.

Back on BDC, he used Mark Reynolds as a good comparison for the future of Will Middlebrooks. I think I was the lone holdout that wished that would happen.

Middlebrooks is out of baseball. Reynolds, despite being 5 years older, played last season. Now in hindsight, don’t we all wish Middlebrooks turned out to be as good as Mark Reynolds?

[Bellhorn04]

Let’s b fair.

Back on BDC, he used Mark Reynolds as a good comparison for the future of Will Middlebrooks. I think I was the lone holdout that wished that would happen.

Middlebrooks is out of baseball. Reynolds, despite being 5 years older, played last season. Now in hindsight, don’t we all wish Middlebrooks turned out to be as good as Mark Reynolds?

Joe Brady on BDC educated me in the importance of K/BB ratio. He said Middlebrooks's ratio pointed to failure.

[moonslav59]

Joe Brady on BDC educated me in the importance of K/BB ratio. He said Middlebrooks's ratio pointed to failure.

K rate is a very good tool to use to raise a red flag, but there are quite a few high K rate players today who provide a big plus to their teams.

Stanton finished 5th highest in K% at 30% while providing a 4.2 WAR last year.

14 of the top 17 K rate players had a WAR of 2 or more (including JBJ).

17 of 21 had a WAR at 2.0+ and 21 out of 26, including Goldschmidt 5.1, 3.5 BHarper, JBaez 5.3, TStory 5.0, TPham 4.0, MOlsen 3.4, Schwarber 3.2, KDavis 2.6, J Aguilar, CTaylor & J Upton at 3.1, J Gallo 2.8 & Conforto at 3.0

High K guys can be successful.

[notin]

Joe Brady on BDC educated me in the importance of K/BB ratio. He said Middlebrooks's ratio pointed to failure.


Joe B and myself were all over that with Middlebrooks...

[Bellhorn04]

K rate is a very good tool to use to raise a red flag, but there are quite a few high K rate players today who provide a big plus to their teams.

Stanton finished 5th highest in K% at 30% while providing a 4.2 WAR last year.

14 of the top 17 K rate players had a WAR of 2 or more (including JBJ).

17 of 21 had a WAR at 2.0+ and 21 out of 26, including Goldschmidt 5.1, 3.5 BHarper, JBaez 5.3, TStory 5.0, TPham 4.0, MOlsen 3.4, Schwarber 3.2, KDavis 2.6, J Aguilar, CTaylor & J Upton at 3.1, J Gallo 2.8 & Conforto at 3.0

High K guys can be successful.


K/BB not straight K.

[notin]

K rate is a very good tool to use to raise a red flag, but there are quite a few high K rate players today who provide a big plus to their teams.

Stanton finished 5th highest in K% at 30% while providing a 4.2 WAR last year.

14 of the top 17 K rate players had a WAR of 2 or more (including JBJ).

17 of 21 had a WAR at 2.0+ and 21 out of 26, including Goldschmidt 5.1, 3.5 BHarper, JBaez 5.3, TStory 5.0, TPham 4.0, MOlsen 3.4, Schwarber 3.2, KDavis 2.6, J Aguilar, CTaylor & J Upton at 3.1, J Gallo 2.8 & Conforto at 3.0

High K guys can be successful.



High K guys in the majors are a bit different than high K guys in the minors.

A big part of the reason I’m wary about Dalbec...

[moonslav59]

Sox highest K rates last year:

26% JBJ
25% Devers
23% JDM
22% Moreland
20% Holt
18% Bogey
16% Beni
15% Betts
14% Nunez

Highest Sox K rates over the last 3 years combined:

25 TShaw
25 Leon
24 Devers
24 JBJ
23 JDM
21 Moreland
21 CYoung
20 HRam
19 Holt
18 Vaz
18 Bogey
17 Beni
14 Nunez
14 Papi
12 Betts
10 Pedey

[Bellhorn04]

For his career Middlebrooks had a K/BB ratio of about 5 to 1. That's death.

JBJ is more like 3 to 1. Not great but not death.

[notin]

harmony, a personal question here, hopefully not an offensive one.

When was the last time you said something like: 'Man, I think this guy is really gonna be good!'

Can you remember back that far? Did it ever even happen? :)


I also think most fans set the bar WAAAAAAY too high for younger prospects.

If the parallel for Devers is Sandoval, we are talking about a player who, at age 25, was worth 15 fWAR with an OPS+ of 128 and 2 All Star appearances. Devers just finished his age 21 season and is worth 1.8 fWAR with an OPS + of 100 and no All Starvappearances. Why is Sandoval such a bad wish here? No one is saying that Devers is going to copy Sandoval’s fitn SS regime and apparent apathy. That can’t be determined through stat comparisons.

But if the comp says that in the next 4 years, Devers is going to be worth 13.2 fWAR with 2 All Star appearances while surpassing 28% of the league offensively, would you take it or not?

[Bellhorn04]

I also think most fans set the bar WAAAAAAY too high for younger prospects.

If the parallel for Devers is Sandoval, we are talking about a player who, at age 25, was worth 15 fWAR with an OPS+ of 128 and 2 All Star appearances. Devers just finished his age 21 season and is worth 1.8 fWAR with an OPS + of 100 and no All Starvappearances. Why is Sandoval such a bad wish here? No one is saying that Devers is going to copy Sandoval’s fitn SS regime and apparent apathy. That can’t be determined through stat comparisons.

But if the comp says that in the next 4 years, Devers is going to be worth 13.2 fWAR with 2 All Star appearances while surpassing 28% of the league offensively, would you take it or not?

Take it.

I guess it would just be more palatable if the comp wasn't a player we know bombed out spectacularly at a relatively young age...

[moonslav59]

For his career Middlebrooks had a K/BB ratio of about 5 to 1. That's death.

JBJ is more like 3 to 1. Not great but not death.

True, but JBJ was near 4:1 after his first 2 seasons. The big difference was that JBJ's minor league career showed a much lower K:BB ratio (236:167).

[moonslav59]

I also think most fans set the bar WAAAAAAY too high for younger prospects.

If the parallel for Devers is Sandoval, we are talking about a player who, at age 25, was worth 15 fWAR with an OPS+ of 128 and 2 All Star appearances. Devers just finished his age 21 season and is worth 1.8 fWAR with an OPS + of 100 and no All Starvappearances. Why is Sandoval such a bad wish here? No one is saying that Devers is going to copy Sandoval’s fitn SS regime and apparent apathy. That can’t be determined through stat comparisons.

But if the comp says that in the next 4 years, Devers is going to be worth 13.2 fWAR with 2 All Star appearances while surpassing 28% of the league offensively, would you take it or not?

If you had to project a reasonable floor and ceiling for Devers from here on forward, what would it be?

He's at .769 now with a 162 game average of...

.254 28 87

I guess one could think a flame out is possible, but I'd put those odds at very slight. Nothing seems to bother this kid. He's fearless and seems to work hard at improving his faults.

I'm think high-lows might be something like this:

Ages 22-26
.240 25 75 (.740)
.280 35 100 (.820)

Ages 27-31
.250 28 85 (.780)
.290 45 120 (.900)

Ages 32-36
.230 20 70 (.720)
.275 25 85 (.800)

[Kimmi]

Joe Brady on BDC educated me in the importance of K/BB ratio. He said Middlebrooks's ratio pointed to failure.

Somebody needs to get JoeyB to post here. I've tried unsuccessfully for years.

[Kimmi]

K/BB not straight K.

K/BB is a very good and simple stat to use in assessing both hitters and pitchers.

[Kimmi]

Take it.

I guess it would just be more palatable if the comp wasn't a player we know bombed out spectacularly at a relatively young age...

I don't think it's just the bombing at such a young age that bothers Red Sox fans. It's that we never got the good years before the bombing. And the bombing was horrendous.

[Bellhorn04]

Somebody needs to get JoeyB to post here. I've tried unsuccessfully for years.

I tried too.

[notin]

Take it.

I guess it would just be more palatable if the comp wasn't a player we know bombed out spectacularly at a relatively young age...


The problem wasn’t just that he bombed out, but that he did so in Boston nd we all watched. But that doesn’t change that Sandoval was actually an exceptional player for a long time...

[moonslav59]

I don't think it's just the bombing at such a young age that bothers Red Sox fans. It's that we never got the good years before the bombing. And the bombing was horrendous.

And, the financial cost was a big burden.

[moonslav59]

The problem wasn’t just that he bombed out, but that he did so in Boston nd we all watched. But that doesn’t change that Sandoval was actually an exceptional player for a long time...

The most exceptional part of Sandy's career, to me, other than his flame out just as he reached peak prime year, was that his best two seasons were at ages 22 & 24 , and they blew away his other years by a mile.

Age OPS
22 .943
23 .732
24 .909
25 .789
26 .758
27 .739
Then, the Boston years.

He totally blew the age curve away.

He currently has a .777 OPS, and if you count his low PA seasons, he was below that mark in 7 of his 11 years. He was below .790 in 8 of 11 years, and one of those 3 he was over was his 2nd shortest season of all (154 PAs in rookie year).

[jacksonianmarch]

High K guys in the majors are a bit different than high K guys in the minors.

A big part of the reason I’m wary about Dalbec...

Judge went from a 27-30% K guy in the minors up to a 37% K guy in the bigs. If a guy K’s a ton against lower level competition, he’s probably gonna K more vs better pitchers. You just need to hope his exit velo as his ages rises enough to make his BABIP be otherworldly

[SCM33]

Everyone is forgetting that he is 22. Most "big time" prospects are still in AA at his age. He hit 21 homers last year as a 21 year old. I'd say he will be around 30 this year.

We aren't giving him enough credit for what hes done at his age.

[moonslav59]

Everyone is forgetting that he is 22. Most "big time" prospects are still in AA at his age. He hit 21 homers last year as a 21 year old. I'd say he will be around 30 this year.

We aren't giving him enough credit for what hes done at his age.

Not all "we".

[mvp 78]

Not all "we".

Referring to me?

[moonslav59]

Referring to me?

Referring to several or us posters who have pumped up Devers and have very rosy outlooks on his future.

[oldtimer]

Referring to several or us posters who have pumped up Devers and have very rosy outlooks on his future.

I too believe he has a lot of upside this year. He is probably our best hope for improvement with JBJ being second in that parade and maybe Nunez third, since he is supposedly recovered from his leg injury.

[moonslav59]

I too believe he has a lot of upside this year. He is probably our best hope for improvement with JBJ being second in that parade and maybe Nunez third, since he is supposedly recovered from his leg injury.

I'm not sure this is the year Devers busts out. He's still young. He still has some issues he needs to deal with, but I am extremely confident he will be a great hitter at some point. My biggest worry is his defense, but I think he can grow to become a decent or even a plus defender at 3B. At worst, I think he can be an average defensive 1Bman. He will also hit well enough to be a DH, if things don't get better on defense.

I'm very hopeful he does well this year. I'd probably project an .800+ OPS this year.

[Nick]

I'm not sure this is the year Devers busts out. He's still young. He still has some issues he needs to deal with, but I am extremely confident he will be a great hitter at some point. My biggest worry is his defense, but I think he can grow to become a decent or even a plus defender at 3B. At worst, I think he can be an average defensive 1Bman. He will also hit well enough to be a DH, if things don't get better on defense.

I'm very hopeful he does well this year. I'd probably project an .800+ OPS this year.



We have five more years of Devers under team control and I'm going to just sit back watch him blossom. He's least of our worries.

[notin]

I'm not sure this is the year Devers busts out. He's still young. He still has some issues he needs to deal with, but I am extremely confident he will be a great hitter at some point. My biggest worry is his defense, but I think he can grow to become a decent or even a plus defender at 3B. At worst, I think he can be an average defensive 1Bman. He will also hit well enough to be a DH, if things don't get better on defense.

I'm very hopeful he does well this year. I'd probably project an .800+ OPS this year.




Fortunately the Sox lineup is stacked with enough top tier hitters that we don’t need Devers to break out and anything he does at the plate is a bonus...

[Slasher9]

Somebody needs to get JoeyB to post here. I've tried unsuccessfully for years.

this. 1 million percent. someone track him down!

[moonslav59]

Fortunately the Sox lineup is stacked with enough top tier hitters that we don’t need Devers to break out and anything he does at the plate is a bonus...

Yes, it's good there is no pressure, but with Devers, pressure doesn't seem to bother him, anyways.

[moonslav59]

We have five more years of Devers under team control and I'm going to just sit back watch him blossom. He's least of our worries.

Agreed, and I think these 5 years will be magical and marvelous!

[SCM33]

Referring to several or us posters who have pumped up Devers and have very rosy outlooks on his future.


I too believe he has a lot of upside this year. He is probably our best hope for improvement with JBJ being second in that parade and maybe Nunez third, since he is supposedly recovered from his leg injury.

If he figures things out, and learns how to approach an AB.......he will be a monster.

I said earlier he could hit 30 homers. I don't think that is really that much of a stretch, I actually expect him to hit at least 30. If he figures out the strike zone, and approaches AB's better.......he could hit 40 homers. He has INCREDIBLE power to all fields, and the ability to hit righty/lefty.

We need to be patient, weve already seen the talent, weve already seen the ability......lets be patient while he figures it out.

Defensively, Jacko said he would move to 1B. Thats a possibility. He has huge frame, maybe too big for 3B, his arm is what hurts his defensive numbers the most. He could end up being a very good defensive 1B'man.

[moonslav59]

If he figures things out, and learns how to approach an AB.......he will be a monster.

I said earlier he could hit 30 homers. I don't think that is really that much of a stretch, I actually expect him to hit at least 30. If he figures out the strike zone, and approaches AB's better.......he could hit 40 homers. He has INCREDIBLE power to all fields, and the ability to hit righty/lefty.

We need to be patient, weve already seen the talent, weve already seen the ability......lets be patient while he figures it out.

Defensively, Jacko said he would move to 1B. Thats a possibility. He has huge frame, maybe too big for 3B, his arm is what hurts his defensive numbers the most. He could end up being a very good defensive 1B'man.

I've been very cautious with my Devers timetable. He may takes a step back here or there, but IMO, he will be great in the not too distant future.

I also think he ends up at 1B in 1-2 years, but I want to give him a longer look at 3B. With Moreland and Pearce becoming FAs next year, the timing might be just right for that choice to be made after 2019.

[Slasher9]

Moon, you were the first person i remember stating he would be 1b. that was before anyone had even heard of him.
personally, i think he gets 2 or 3 more seasons at 3b. he has a cannon if he can sort out the accuracy....

[moonslav59]

Moon, you were the first person i remember stating he would be 1b. that was before anyone had even heard of him.
personally, i think he gets 2 or 3 more seasons at 3b. he has a cannon if he can sort out the accuracy....

I've not given up on him at 3B. He's been improving, and when that stops, we'll see where he is and decide then.

If Chavis is the guy we keep and call-up, my guess is Devers stays at 3B for at least 2-3 more years.

If Dalbec is the guy, we may want him at 3B and Devers at 1B.

We could even see this sometime soon:

3B: Dalbec (Devers back-up)
1B: Devers (Chavis back-up)
DH: Chavis

[mvp 78]

Moon, you were the first person i remember stating he would be 1b. that was before anyone had even heard of him.
personally, i think he gets 2 or 3 more seasons at 3b. he has a cannon if he can sort out the accuracy....

I'm ashamed of you right now.

[mvp 78]

I've not given up on him at 3B. He's been improving, and when that stops, we'll see where he is and decide then.

If Chavis is the guy we keep and call-up, my guess is Devers stays at 3B for at least 2-3 more years.

If Dalbec is the guy, we may want him at 3B and Devers at 1B.

We could even see this sometime soon:

3B: Dalbec (Devers back-up)
1B: Devers (Chavis back-up)
DH: Chavis

This makes sense. Dalbec is the superior defender. Devers seems like he'll be moved to 1b at some point if Dalbec comes up. Chavis is not very good anywhere in the field.

[Slasher9]

I'm ashamed of you right now.

just now? i'm ashamed of me always....
it was long enough ago that the place to pull up the old posts is no longer in existence.

[harmony]

A bold prediction from RotoGraphs columnist Paul Sporer:

Rafael Devers goes .300/35/100/100/10

A modest first full season lowered the former mega-prospect’s stock a bit, but there’s still a ton of potential in this 22-year old bat. It’s telling that his down year still netted 21 homers in 490 PA. He’s a “best shape of his life” candidate as he admitted to carrying too much weight last year and worked hard with Xander Bogaerts (another guy I considered for a big bold prediction) to get fit and be lit.

The homers are probably the most stable part of this projection as it’s only seven more than his 650 PA pace from last year. Where this really becomes a bold prediction is tacking on 60 points to his batting average with major R/RBI numbers and a sneaky 10 SBs. If Devers emerges as I expect, he fits perfectly in the third spot of that lineup, in between Mookie Betts and J.D. Martinez.
https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/2019-bold-predictions/

[moonslav59]

A bold prediction from RotoGraphs columnist Paul Sporer:

https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/2019-bold-predictions/

Maybe a bit bold but certainly attainable. Heck, he could hit 45 120.

[SCM33]

A bold prediction from RotoGraphs columnist Paul Sporer:

https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/2019-bold-predictions/


Maybe a bit bold but certainly attainable. Heck, he could hit 45 120.

So we are in agreement :)

45/120 is bold. Id be happy with 30+ this year, hitting in the .270-.280 range. If he is making that kind of contact, the other abstract numbers will be there by default with his potential (OB%,OPS,OPS+, WAR)

[moonslav59]

I'm thinking .270 32 105 is about right.

He could do .250 25 80 or .290 40 115 easily.

[SCM33]

I'm thinking .270 32 105 is about right.

Hopefully with an OB% in the .340-.350 range. Not high, but....he is 22, and that is a big jump from where he is now. Completely reasonable accomplishments.

[moonslav59]

Hopefully with an OB% in the .340-.350 range. Not high, but....he is 22, and that is a big jump from where he is now. Completely reasonable accomplishments.

If he hits 30+ with 100+ RBIs, I'd be ok with .310-.320 OB%, but if he is batting 3rd, we'd need better.

That's one reason I prefer Bogey & Pearce 3rd and Devers 5th/6th.

[harmony]

For what it's worth, Rafael Devers went for $2 on Saturday at my fantasy baseball auction. The minimum bid is $1 in the 10-team mixed league with 27-man rosters and $305 budgets. Miguel Andujar went for $8.

The difference in perception is interesting.

[moonslav59]

For what it's worth, Rafael Devers went for $2 on Saturday at my fantasy baseball auction. The minimum bid is $1 in the 10-team mixed league with 27-man rosters and $305 budgets. Miguel Andujar went for $8.

The difference in perception is interesting.

It will be interesting to see the final 2019 results between Devers & Andujar.

[Larry Cook]

It will be interesting to see the final 2019 results between Devers & Andujar.

I know spring training numbers have no real carry over to the regular season. But the adjustments devers made to his swing this offseason looked really good so far.

If he has a break out year and we get anything out of pedrioa, that be huge in making up for any unexpected regressions elsewhere in the lineup.

[Bellhorn04]

For what it's worth, Rafael Devers went for $2 on Saturday at my fantasy baseball auction. The minimum bid is $1 in the 10-team mixed league with 27-man rosters and $305 budgets. Miguel Andujar went for $8.

The difference in perception is interesting.

I think Devers is going to pay off nicely on that $2.

[harmony]

I think Devers is going to pay off nicely on that $2.
On that fantasy team, Rafael Devers is the third-base backup to Kris Bryant, who is also eligible in the outfield.

[mvp 78]

On that fantasy team, Rafael Devers (God) is the third-base backup to Kris Bryant (overrated bum), who is also eligible in the outfield.

You in the Talksox league this year?

[harmony]

You in the Talksox league this year?
No. I try to limit myself to one league per season.

In 2001 I joined my current league, which was formed in 1991. One of my closest friends is the lone remaining founding member.

[BillyWilliams]

It will be interesting to see the final 2019 results between Devers & Andujar.

Baseball-Reference had devers at 0.0 WAR last season and Andujar at 2.2 WAR.

I haven't looked at the projections for this season.

[mvp 78]

Baseball-Reference had devers at 0.0 WAR last season and Andujar at 2.2 WAR.

I haven't looked at the projections for this season.

Steamer has Devers at 2.4 and Andujar at 1.5.

Zips has Devers at 2.1 and Andujar at 2.0.

I think the big issue with the ratings is Andujar's defense and how it drags down his offense.

[BillyWilliams]

Steamer has Devers at 2.4 and Andujar at 1.5.

Zips has Devers at 2.1 and Andujar at 2.0.

I think the big issue with the ratings is Andujar's defense and how it drags down his offense.

While neither one of them will be confused with Brooks Robinson anytime soon I did read that Andujar worked with Adrian Beltre in the off season. Not a bad guy to try to help you along in my opinion.

[mvp 78]

While neither one of them will be confused with Brooks Robinson anytime soon I did read that Andujar worked with Adrian Beltre in the off season. Not a bad guy to try to help you along in my opinion.

Beltre is the best 3b of my lifetime and should be a first ballot HOFer.

[BillyWilliams]

Beltre is the best 3b of my lifetime and should be a first ballot HOFer.

I got to see the end of Robinson's career. Nettles was a pretty amazing with the glove as well.

No doubt in my mind Beltre is 1st ballot.

[Kimmi]

On that fantasy team, Rafael Devers is the third-base backup to Kris Bryant, who is also eligible in the outfield.

As I said before, the guy who dropped Devers is going to end up regretting his decision.

[SCM33]

Beltre is the best 3b of my lifetime and should be a first ballot HOFer.

I hated the Redsox for letting him walk after 1 year.

[SCM33]

Devers to hit 3rd in the lineup on opening day (night).

[notin]

I got to see the end of Robinson's career. Nettles was a pretty amazing with the glove as well.

No doubt in my mind Beltre is 1st ballot.


So you’re not bothered by his presence on the same failed drug test list as Ortiz? Or is your condemnation of failed drug tests limited to Red Sox players?

[mvp 78]

So you’re not bothered by his presence on the same failed drug test list as Ortiz? Or is your condemnation of failed drug tests limited to Red Sox players?

Beltre drank his milkshakes the right way!

[Bellhorn04]

So you’re not bothered by his presence on the same failed drug test list as Ortiz? Or is your condemnation of failed drug tests limited to Red Sox players?

LOL Billy's internet research is sometimes a little incomplete.

[BillyWilliams]

So you’re not bothered by his presence on the same failed drug test list as Ortiz? Or is your condemnation of failed drug tests limited to Red Sox players?

I wasn't aware that he was named as well.

That certainly changes my opinion then.

[mvp 78]

I wasn't aware that he was named as well.

That certainly changes my opinion then.

Why should it though?

[BillyWilliams]

Why should it though?

Because I'm not a big fan of juicers being in the Hall.

[mvp 78]

Because I'm not a big fan of juicers being in the Hall.

What about all the guys from the 70's who did greenies?

[BillyWilliams]

What about all the guys from the 70's who did greenies?

Well, we are all entitled to our opinions but I think there's a difference between greenies and steroids or HGH.

But that's my opinion, you may or may not agree.

Obviously most of the voters agree as far as the Hall is concerned as there are only a couple of guys like pedro and Pudge that were voted in while guys like Clemens and Bonds have been in limbo.

[Slasher9]

this should be fun.

[mvp 78]

Well, we are all entitled to our opinions but I think there's a difference between greenies and steroids or HGH.

But that's my opinion, you may or may not agree.

Obviously most of the voters agree as far as the Hall is concerned as there are only a couple of guys like pedro and Pudge that were voted in while guys like Clemens and Bonds have been in limbo.

I'm not sure I even want to ask.

[notin]

Because I'm not a big fan of juicers being in the Hall.


But you don’t even know if Beltre was cheating. If he tested positive for an allowed substance like androstenedione, does it change your opinion?

So you condemn Beltre, who may have done nothing wrong, but praise Nettles, a known bat corker?

[BillyWilliams]

But you don’t even know if Beltre was cheating. If he tested positive for an allowed substance like androstenedione, does it change your opinion?

So you condemn Beltre, who may have done nothing wrong, but praise Nettles, a known bat corker?

I praised Nettles' fielding, didn't realize he did that with a corked bat, which makes it even more amazing.

[notin]

I praised Nettles' fielding, didn't realize he did that with a corked bat, which makes it even more amazing.


Technically Nettles preferred super balls over actual cork. There was a famous incident in (I believe) Cleveland where his bat broke and a slew of super balls scattered around the right side of the infield.

But what he did was also cheating. Stupid cheating, granted, since doctoring a bat more often can lead to reduced power. But cheating nonetheless. I don’t get why fans get so down on steroid cheaters but have no problem exonerating players who doctor bats and balls (and do so defiantly, like Hall of Famer Gaylord Perry).

Some of the PED users weren’t cheating because rules allowed what they did. The same cannot be said for Perry and the bat corkers.

(Side note: Perry and the Bat Corkers was the name of my band in high school.)

[harmony]

One comp to Rafael Devers might be Atlanta infielder Ozzie Albies, who is 75 days younger than Devers.

Devers posted an OPS+ of 112 in 240 plate appearances as a 20 year old in 2017.

Albies posted an OPS+ of 112 in 244 plate appearances as a 20 year old in 2017.

As a 21 year old in 2018, Devers posted an OPS+ of 94 in 490 plate appearances with 21 home runs and a slash line of .240/.298/.433/.731.

As a 21 year old in 2018, Albies posted an OPS+ of 102 in 684 plate appearances with 24 home runs and a slash line of .261/.305/.452/.757.

In 2018 Devers posted 0.0 bWAR and 1.0 fWAR while Albies, with superior defensive skills, posted 3.8 bWAR and 3.8 fWAR with an All Star appearance.

[dgalehouse]

One comp to Rafael Devers might be Atlanta infielder Ozzie Albies, who is 75 days younger than Devers.

Devers posted an OPS+ of 112 in 240 plate appearances as a 20 year old in 2017.

Albies posted an OPS+ of 112 in 244 plate appearances as a 20 year old in 2017.

As a 21 year old in 2018, Devers posted an OPS+ of 94 in 490 plate appearances with 21 home runs and a slash line of .240/.298/.433/.731.

As a 21 year old in 2018, Albies posted an OPS+ of 102 in 684 plate appearances with 24 home runs and a slash line of .261/.305/.452/.757.

In 2018 Devers posted 0.0 bWAR and 1.0 fWAR while Albies, with superior defensive skills, posted 3.8 bWAR and 3.8 fWAR with an All Star appearance.

The Cooler .

[moonslav59]

With such a short sample size, I find making comps based on WAR similarities is not very useful.

If they had similar minor league numbers and skill sets, then maybe yes.

I hated seeing Devers try and backhand that ball last night. It was a pretty easy play to get in front of.

Not a good start.

[BillyWilliams]

With such a short sample size, I find making comps based on WAR similarities is not very useful.

If they had similar minor league numbers and skill sets, then maybe yes.

I hated seeing Devers try and backhand that ball last night. It was a pretty easy play to get in front of.

Not a good start.

But yet a one season SSS is enough for you to proclaim cora as the greatest sawx manager of all time .............

[mvp 78]

But yet a one season SSS is enough for you to proclaim cora as the greatest sawx manager of all time .............

He's really only in competition with Tito. There have been a lot of really bad Sox managers. Farrell won a WS, but was a poor manager.

[BillyWilliams]

He's really only in competition with Tito. There have been a lot of really bad Sox managers. Farrell won a WS, but was a poor manager.

I just like how moonslob doesn't mind SSS when it suits his needs but is quick to harp on it when others use it.

[mvp 78]

I just like how moonslob doesn't mind SSS when it suits his needs but is quick to harp on it when others use it.

If I held everyone to the high standard I hold for myself, I'd block every poster on here.

[moonslav59]

But yet a one season SSS is enough for you to proclaim cora as the greatest sawx manager of all time .............

Only because all the large sample size managers sucked, except Tito.

[SCM33]

But yet a one season SSS is enough for you to proclaim cora as the greatest sawx manager of all time .............

1 Season. Most wins by a Sox team ever. Dominated the playoffs. Won the World Series.

Pretty decent start to his resume.

[mvp 78]

Devers has a DRS score of 1 right now. His defense is slowly but surely getting better and better.

BuT tHe EyE tEsT!

[jung]

If Devers never gets into an athletic position in preparation to make a play he is never going to be much of a fielder. Much more fielding is done with the feet than the glove. Sloppy or lazy footwork only makes it harder to make a play with the glove. In fact, I don't even watch ground balls to the fielder's glove. Why would I. The fielder is either going to catch it, knock it down or the ball is getting through untouched. I will know soon enough which one it is. I watch the fielder's foot work as soon as I know who has to make the play and keep watching it all the way to the play either being made or not.

In fact if at the game in person I will pay attention to the fielder's set up positions, left side of infield for RH hitters and right side of infield for LH hitters.

[SCM33]

There isn't a bigger Devers supporter than me......but man, he somehow got worse defensively. 5 errors through 20 games. Hes on pace to make over 35 errors at 3B.

[moonslav59]

Devers has a DRS score of 1 right now. His defense is slowly but surely getting better and better.

BuT tHe EyE tEsT!

He's at -2 DRS, now.

Pedey is, too.

[moonslav59]

I've always thought Devers would end up at 1B, but I was willing to give him every opportunity to improve enough at 3B to stay there. It looked like he was getting better as 2018 rolled on, but this is unacceptable.

With Pearce & Moreland's contract up after this year, I'd look to try Devers & Chavis at 1B and maybe hope Dalbec can win the 3B job. Otherwise, we'll have to llok for a FA 3Bman next winter.

[SCM33]

6 errors now. Potentially cost them another game.

[oldtimer]

6 errors now. Potentially cost them another game.

6 errors and we are still in April. I will have to look up the worst ever. My guess is he is at a rate that will surpass it and become the new record holder.

[SCM33]

6 errors and we are still in April. I will have to look up the worst ever. My guess is he is at a rate that will surpass it and become the new record holder.

Butch Hobson I believe.

[oldtimer]

Butch Hobson I believe.

The records go way back when there were more errors. Couldn't find the record I was looking for but last year he had 24 errors (to lead the majors) and he did it in 116 game appearances. At his current rate he would get very close to 35 errors this year in the 116 games and I would expect him in 140 to 145 games this year in the regular season. If he keeps going at this rate he could have the incredible total of 42 errors. Moon suggest he might be on first base next season and there is a lot of sense in that thought.

[SCM33]

The records go way back when there were more errors. Couldn't find the record I was looking for but last year he had 24 errors (to lead the majors) and he did it in 116 game appearances. At his current rate he would get very close to 35 errors this year in the 116 games and I would expect him in 140 to 145 games this year in the regular season. If he keeps going at this rate he could have the incredible total of 42 errors. Moon suggest he might be on first base next season and there is a lot of sense in that thought.

I was talking about modern day. I believe Hobson made like 45 errors in 1 season in the late 70s.

I think it may be a little early to talk about Devers to 1B. He is clearly athletic enough to play 3B. It seems like a lack of concentration.

[illinoisredsox]

I was talking about modern day. I believe Hobson made like 45 errors in 1 season in the late 70s.

I think it may be a little early to talk about Devers to 1B. He is clearly athletic enough to play 3B. It seems like a lack of concentration.

Good memory. Hobson made 43 in 1978. IIRC, he had an injured elbow. I recall reading something about him rearranging bone chips in his elbow between pitches. And the idiot Zimmer kept trotting him out there virtually every day. Records show he played in 147 games that year, 14 at DH and 133 at 3B.

[Kimmi]

6 errors now. Potentially cost them another game.

Devers is an enigma. He often boot some fairly routine plays, then he'll turn around and make a Gold Glove caliber play.

[SCM33]

Devers is an enigma. He often boot some fairly routine plays, then he'll turn around and make a Gold Glove caliber play.

Hes an enigma, bc you know he can do it. Its a concentration thing for him I think.

[notin]

6 errors and we are still in April. I will have to

look up the worst ever. My guess is he is at a rate that will surpass it and become the new record holder.

Not likely.

In 1903, Cleveland Naps shortstop Johnny Gochnaur committed 98 errors. Coupled with his OPS+ of 54 that year, Gochnaur is a leading candidate for the worst season in MLB history...

[SCM33]

Not likely.

In 1903, Cleveland Naps shortstop Johnny Gochnaur committed 98 errors. Coupled with his OPS+ of 54 that year, Gochnaur is a leading candidate for the worst season in MLB history...

its a little tough comparing baseball 116 years ago to today. Fielding gloves barely existed, if at all and the crab grass in my backyard is better than most outfields were. Fields were in rough shape back then.

[Jason33:]

I wish we would of made a run a Josh Donaldson. Don’t what his contract situation looks like but he would of been a good fit. The Braves aren’t letting him go. Plus he’s starting to hit the ball well. Beltre is just to old. I don’t think he’s even playing now.

[jung]

I suspect the Sox coaching staff and Pedey and X have been on Devers big time of late. You cannot make the plays he has been making lately from his usual, non-athletic, looks like he is waiting for a bus while he chews on his glove pre-pitch position. Probably no coincidence that Dever's "transformation" occurred coincidence with Chavis appearance in a Sox uni either.

[jad]

Devers is an enigma. He often boot some fairly routine plays, then he'll turn around and make a Gold Glove caliber play.

Exactly. When I saw him in AA just before he came up (I hadn't heard of him), he looked like he was in a different league from the others--rather like when Major leaguers are re-habbing there. Great fielder, I thought (he made a couple of spectacular plays), not much at the plate. So much for the 'eye-test'. Or 'small sample size'. Nonetheless, the idea that he is unathletic is silly.

[jung]

Exactly. When I saw him in AA just before he came up (I hadn't heard of him), he looked like he was in a different league from the others--rather like when Major leaguers are re-habbing there. Great fielder, I thought (he made a couple of spectacular plays), not much at the plate. So much for the 'eye-test'. Or 'small sample size'. Nonetheless, the idea that he is unathletic is silly.

Rafi is athletic. He just does not get into an athletic position pre-pitch unless half the coaches and half the infield is barking at him. He has always been able to make those plays coming in bare handed if he can get to the ball. It appears to be his favorite play. Frustrating because those are the plays that show off his athletic ability. But the only way to make plays left to right or going back is to assume an athletic position pre-pitch, not on your heels, not with your feet too close together, not with your knees locked, not any of that. Those plays Rafi has made to left and right the last couple of days, you have no shot at if you are not in an athletic position pre-pitch. In fact, you won't make as many bare handed plays coming in from Rafi's usual posture either.

[Oscars]

Whilst Dever’s fielding continues to cause concern, what about his bat?
The 2019 slimmer version of Dever’s is struggling to hit the ball out of the infield, and has a pedestrian .690 OPS with no HRs in 83ABs .

[a700hitter]

Whilst Dever’s fielding continues to cause concern, what about his bat?
The 2019 slimmer version of Dever’s is struggling to hit the ball out of the infield, and has a pedestrian .690 OPS with no HRs in 83ABs .Could he be injured? He seems to be having trouble with his left shoulder.

[Oscars]

Could he be injured? He seems to be having trouble with his left shoulder.

That would make some sense as he is showing no power whatsoever .

[Jason33:]

Mike Lowell is looking for a job!!!!!

[moonslav59]

I'm really close to totally advocating making Devers our 1Bman next year.

[notin]

The
I'm really close to totally advocating making Devers our 1Bman next year.

Actually a safe bet.

Cora has apparently hinted he isn’t thrilled with Devers’ defense at third. He has hinted he does like Dalbec’s. And the Sox are going to need a few cheaper players in the immediate future...

[moonslav59]

The

Actually a safe bet.

Cora has apparently hinted he isn’t thrilled with Devers’ defense at third. He has hinted he does like Dalbec’s. And the Sox are going to need a few cheaper players in the immediate future...

Even if Dalbec is not good enough to make the roster, I'd move Devers to 1B. We lose over $13M in 1B cost this winter, so it will be time for the move.

I see no improvement after having a little encouragement late last year.

[mvp 78]

Even if Dalbec is not good enough to make the roster, I'd move Devers to 1B. We lose over $13M in 1B cost this winter, so it will be time for the move.

I see no improvement after having a little encouragement late last year.

I'd bring Moreland back without question. Yes, I know this conflicts with Devers' handedness.

[moonslav59]

I'd bring Moreland back without question. Yes, I know this conflicts with Devers' handedness.

Not at $6M. I'm not sure why we are the only team in MLB paying over $6M for both Moreland and Pearce. Players like them are making half that much on the open market.

[notin]

Even if Dalbec is not good enough to make the roster, I'd move Devers to 1B. We lose over $13M in 1B cost this winter, so it will be time for the move.

I see no improvement after having a little encouragement late last year.


They could start the year with someone like Jedd Gyorko or Yangervais Solarte at 3b. Or spend up for Josh Donaldson...

[moonslav59]

They could start the year with someone like Jedd Gyorko or Yangervais Solarte at 3b. Or spend up for Josh Donaldson...

My guess is we go cheap at corner IF next year and just go with Devers, Chavis and Dalbec- maybe bringing Holt back as depth.

If we reset, it makes sense. If we don't, but try to stay under the 2nd or max line, we will need the spending money elsewhere.

[vegasbob]

Could he be injured? He seems to be having trouble with his left shoulder.

Some of his swings recently have been very short armed as if an alligator is holding the bat. A couple of us speculated the other night , when his awkward swing was pronounced, that his left shoulder must have been hurting. Maybe from one of those diving fielding play on the rockets allowed by some pitchers .

[mvp 78]

Not at $6M. I'm not sure why we are the only team in MLB paying over $6M for both Moreland and Pearce. Players like them are making half that much on the open market.

If you can sign him for around $5M, it's well worth it. I pass on Pearce. His contract this year was a thank you for the WS.

[moonslav59]

If you can sign him for around $5M, it's well worth it. I pass on Pearce. His contract this year was a thank you for the WS.

He always starts each off well, and gets hyped.

Let's wait until October to see what we think he'll be worth.

[mvp 78]

He always starts each off well, and gets hyped.

Let's wait until October to see what we think he'll be worth.

He's a good clubhouse guy and has a good glove. He's also not cost prohibitive.

[moonslav59]

He's a good clubhouse guy and has a good glove. He's also not cost prohibitive.

I'm not saying I don't want Moreland back, but I don't think it will or should take $5M to bring him back at a post prime age.

I'd offer him $3.5M/1 or $6M/2, and I doubt anyone offers more. (Those numbers might change, if he finally stays healthy for a full year and ends up near .800.

[SCM33]

Some of his swings recently have been very short armed as if an alligator is holding the bat. A couple of us speculated the other night , when his awkward swing was pronounced, that his left shoulder must have been hurting. Maybe from one of those diving fielding play on the rockets allowed by some pitchers .

Its possible he is shortening his swing to see the ball better and go the other way.

[Spudboy]

Butch Hobson I believe.

Who the Fuck would name their kid Clell???? Clell Lavern Hobson.

He was cursed at the get go.

[Maxbialystock]

What the heck happened to the Devers thread? Hijacked?

Gotta say the Tampa series was not good--a costly error in the field and a completely inexcusable and just stupid baserunning error getting picked off. And where is the hitting we expected?

On the other thread I picked on JBJ a lot, but I now also have issues with Devers, who last year I supported no matter what. It's time for the kid to grow up.

[mvp 78]

What the heck happened to the Devers thread? Hijacked?

Gotta say the Tampa series was not good--a costly error in the field and a completely inexcusable and just stupid baserunning error getting picked off. And where is the hitting we expected?

On the other thread I picked on JBJ a lot, but I now also have issues with Devers, who last year I supported no matter what. It's time for the kid to grow up.

UNLIKE OTHER POSTERS WHO COMPLAIN IF YOU INSULT THEIR BINKY, I think it's justified to have concerns over Devers at this point.

[vegasbob]

UNLIKE OTHER POSTERS WHO COMPLAIN IF YOU INSULT THEIR BINKY, I think it's justified to have concerns over Devers at this point.

More than justified . He should be coming into his own with the bat, for power and average, while showing some steady play at 3B, not the inconsistency of great stops and throws surrounded by nonchalant errors. It doesn't seem that Ortiz's mentoring made a big impression.

[mvp 78]

More than justified . He should be coming into his own with the bat, for power and average, while showing some steady play at 3B, not the inconsistency of great stops and throws surrounded by nonchalant errors. It doesn't seem that Ortiz's mentoring made a big impression.

I can understand the bat not being there right now since it's early in the season and we don't know if there is an underlying injury/issue, but the lack of focus on defense is concerning.

[Spudboy]

Earlier in this season I surmised that Devers had made improvement in his defense.

Now I see costly errors and I question my judgement.

It may sound like a cop-out but he is still quite young at 22.

[mvp 78]

Earlier in this season I surmised that Devers had made improvement in his defense.

Now I see costly errors and I question my judgement.

It may sound like a cop-out but he is still quite young at 22.

A lot of mental mistakes IMO.

[Bellhorn04]

Red Sox Stats‏ @redsoxstats

Devers made 68% of routine plays as a rookie, he made 70% last season, he is making 76% this season. League average 3B makes 72%. His range is excellent. He's been -1 defensive run this season, so league average. People that want to move him off 3B are legitimately dumb.

[mvp 78]

Red Sox Stats‏ @redsoxstats

Devers made 68% of routine plays as a rookie, he made 70% last season, he is making 76% this season. League average 3B makes 72%. His range is excellent. He's been -1 defensive run this season, so league average. People that want to move him off 3B are legitimately dumb.

Damn.

[notin]

Red Sox Stats‏ @redsoxstats

Devers made 68% of routine plays as a rookie, he made 70% last season, he is making 76% this season. League average 3B makes 72%. His range is excellent. He's been -1 defensive run this season, so league average. People that want to move him off 3B are legitimately dumb.


You mean like you did on page 389 of the “Realistic Look” thread?

[Bellhorn04]

You mean like you did on page 389 of the Realistic Look” thread?

In my defense (pun intended), I said 'might'. I won't even say that now. ;)

[mvp 78]

You mean like you did on page 389 of the “Realistic Look” thread?

That thread only has 294 pages for me. Anyone else who uses a different amount of posts per page is wrong.

[Slasher9]

That thread only has 294 pages for me. Anyone else who uses a different amount of posts per page is wrong.

it only has 196 for me.
you all like clicking next page arrows alot.....Sad!

[Spudboy]

Red Sox Stats‏ @redsoxstats

Devers made 68% of routine plays as a rookie, he made 70% last season, he is making 76% this season. League average 3B makes 72%. His range is excellent. He's been -1 defensive run this season, so league average. People that want to move him off 3B are legitimately dumb.

So he has improved.

Cool.

[mvp 78]

it only has 196 for me.
you all like clicking next page arrows alot.....Sad!

Whatever Sir Scrolls Down A Lot.

[mvp 78]

@redsoxstats

"It's one play with Devers, on one step to his left plays his hands are locking up, working on it every day with Febles. Everything else is better than last year."

[SCM33]

@redsoxstats

"It's one play with Devers, on one step to his left plays his hands are locking up, working on it every day with Febles. Everything else is better than last year."

good to hear. He looks better this year, even though the E numbers remain high.

[Bellhorn04]

It's cherry-pickin' time!

Last 10 games:

15 hits
5 walks
.985 OPS

[notin]

It's cherry-pickin' time!

Last 10 games:

15 hits
5 walks
.985 OPS

My issue with Devers was never offense.

That said, this is a Launch Angle League now. And with this emphasis on hitting fly balls and nothing but fly balls has lead not only to strikeout records for the league, but also a reduced need for infield defense...

[jad]

If Dick Stuart could start for the RS, I have no problem with Devers.