2014 Projections

[rjortiz]

AL East

1. Red Sox
2. Rays *
3. Yankees
4. Jays
5. Orioles

AL Central

1. Tigers
2. Indians
3. Royals
4. White Sox
5. Twins

AL West

1. Rangers
2. A's *
3. Angels
4. Mariners
5. Astros

NL East

1. Nationals
2. Braves *
3. Phillies
4. Mets
5. Marlins

NL Central

1. Cardinals
2. Pirates *
3. Reds
4. Brewers
5. Cubs

NL West

1. Dodgers
2. Diamondbacks
3. Giants
4. Padres
5. Rockies

Rays over A's
Braves over Pirates

Red Sox over Rays
Rangers over Tigers
Cardinals over Braves
Nationals over Dodgers


Red Sox over Rangers
Nationals over Cardinals

Red Sox over Nationals

[BSN07]

Sweet baby Jesus is it time for predictions already? Have to give it a think.

[seabeachfred]

AL East

1. Red Sox
2. Rays *
3. Yankees
4. Jays
5. Orioles

AL Central

1. Tigers
2. Indians
3. Royals
4. White Sox
5. Twins

AL West

1. Rangers
2. A's *
3. Angels
4. Mariners
5. Astros

NL East

1. Nationals
2. Braves *
3. Phillies
4. Mets
5. Marlins

NL Central

1. Cardinals
2. Pirates *
3. Reds
4. Brewers
5. Cubs

NL West

1. Dodgers
2. Diamondbacks
3. Giants
4. Padres
5. Rockies

Rays over A's
Braves over Pirates

Red Sox over Rays
Rangers over Tigers
Cardinals over Braves
Nationals over Dodgers


Red Sox over Rangers
Nationals over Cardinals

Red Sox over Nationals

rj---I agree with five of your six division winners. Wonder if you know which one I disagree with. Take a flier on that. As for WS winner I pray that you are right. What a hoot that would be.

[Thunder]

Okay, hopefully I'm as good here as I am with the NFL. Names get more creative as I go along.

East:
Sox
Birds
Rays
Skanks
Jays

Central:
Dey-twah
Kay Cee
Tribe
Twinkies
Spare pair of Sox

West:
America's Team
Seattle Canos
Texas Rednecks
Troutfishermen
Mythological Spacemen

NL East:
Tomahawk Choppers
Gnats of Columbia
Brotherly Clubbers
Stem, spelled backwards
The joke of LeBronville

Central:
G(atew)ay Archers
The Red north of the Bluegrass
Steel Marauders
It's been Weeks since we had Braun
The we just got a dumb mascots

West:
Hollywood Avoiders
The Pence on the Bay
Southwestern Sidewinders
The Fathers of Northern North Mexico
Mildly High Crack babies in the Mile High

Playoffs? You kidding me?
WC:
Seattle's 2nd Best over the KC Lordes (Google Lorde if you don't know that reference)

Sox over the Oakland Fightin' Cespedes
The Floating Canoes over the Flipping Hunters

NL:
WC:
Delmarva Devils over the Bayside Tinies

Puig's Pussies over The Uptown Freemen
Louis's Birds over Nasty Gnats

This is our Fucking City over the Teal Rain Jackets

Clayton's Crazies over Wain's Wrongs

The Repeaters over The SoCal Scully's

[jacksonianmarch]

3 teams will make the playoffs out of the AL East. BOS, TB, NYY. Hard to say who wins the pennant as I think all will have around 90-92 wins

[Palodios]

AL East

1. Red Sox
2. Yanks *
3. Rays
4. Orioles
5. Jays

AL Central

1. Tigers
2. White Sox *
3. Royals
4. Indians
5. Twins

AL West

1. Angels
2. Rangers
3. Mariners
4. Athletics
5. Astros

NL East

1. Braves
2. Nationals *
3. Mets
4. Phillies
5. Marlins

NL Central

1. Reds
2. Cardinals *
3. Pirates
4. Brewers
5. Cubs

NL West

1. Dodgers
2. Diamondbacks
3. Rockies
4. Padres
5. Giants

Yanks over White Sox. Angels over Yanks. Tigers over Red Sox. Angels over Tigers.
Nationals over Cardinals. Nationals over Dodgers. Reds over Braves. Nationals over Braves.

Angels over Braves.

Mostly speculation, but the Angels and Nationals seem like they are just too good to go away quietly another year. The Nationals got Fister for almost nothing this offseason, and the Angels seem like they are only one or two pieces away.

[rjortiz]

Sweet baby Jesus is it time for predictions already? Have to give it a think.

I guess this depends on whether you think the remaining free agents will change the playoff race. Cruz is barely above replacement, and he's probably going to Seattle. I think they'll finish 4th, so he won't impact their chances.

I have no idea where Drew is going to land, but I don't think he's going to be a difference maker in any of the races.

Jimenez and Santana have been projected to land with Toronto, Cleveland, or the Angels. Don't think they'd push any of those teams above my wild card winners.

The only thing that might change my mind would be the Yankees signing one of the Jimenez/Santana, and Drew to play 2B. I'd have to think about it, but I still lean the Rays as the better team. That might make them better than Oakland, but I'd have to look more into it.

[rjortiz]

3 teams will make the playoffs out of the AL East. BOS, TB, NYY. Hard to say who wins the pennant as I think all will have around 90-92 wins

The only way the Yankees win 90 games is if they avoid a major injury, or outperform their RD again. The probability of avoiding an injury is probably close to 0%. I guess they could lose Jeter, Johnson, or Roberts, but even at those positions the depth is pretty bad.

[BSN07]

AL East

Red Sox*
Rays*
O's
Yanks (this is not a Yankees hate pick. I just think they are thin and have some major ?, I will however not be in a state of shock if they some how manage to stay in contention like they always seem to do)
Jays

AL Central

Tigers*
Indians
Royals
Twins
White Sox

AL West

Rangers*
A's*
Angels
Mariners
Astros

NL East

Nationals*
Braves
Phillies
Marlins
Mets

NL Central

Cards*
Reds
Pirates
Brewers
Cubs

NL West

Dodgers*
Diamondbacks*
Giants*
Padres
Rockies

[Spudboy]

AL East

Red Sox*
Rays*
O's
Yanks (this is not a Yankees hate pick. I just think they are thin and have some major ?, I will however not be in a state of shock if they some how manage to stay in contention like they always seem to do)
Jays

AL Central

Tigers*
Indians
Royals
Twins
White Sox

AL West

Rangers*
A's*
Angels
Mariners
Astros

NL East

Nationals*
Braves
Phillies
Marlins
Mets

NL Central

Cards*
Reds
Pirates
Brewers
Cubs

NL West

Dodgers*
Diamondbacks*
Giants*
Padres
Rockies

I really don't follow most of the other teams very closely. However, your choices are essentially in line with how I see things playing out.

[sk7326]

AL East: Sox, Rays, Yankees, Orioles, Jays
Central: Tigers, Indians, Royals, Twins, White Sox
West: Rangers, A's, Angels, Mariners, Astros
WC: Rays, A's
Tigers over Rays

NL East: Nationals, Braves, Mets, Marlins, Phillies
Central: Cardinals, Pirates, Reds, Cubs, Brewers
West: Dodgers, DBacks, Giants, Padres, Rockies
WC: Pirates, Braves
Dodgers over Nationals

[SoxSport]

I say impossible to predict the standings right now.

For sure, you'll have the usual suspects plus a few surprises coming out of nowhere.

I would not expect the Cardinals and the Red Sox to be in the World Series again. There is just too much luck involved getting there.

[seabeachfred]

I say impossible to predict the standings right now.

For sure, you'll have the usual suspects plus a few surprises coming out of nowhere.

I would not expect the Cardinals and the Red Sox to be in the World Series again. There is just too much luck involved getting there.

It is very hard to predict right now SoxSport and that's why I give a lot of credit to those who put their prestige on the line so early. I want to wait until ST is almost over to ascertain what kind of a team we'll be putting on the field. BTW, tonight I watched a tape of one of the games of the 2007 ALCS and I can tell you if Grady Sizemore is anything remotely close to what he was back then Jackie Bradley might wind up back at Pawtucket. I wouldn't particularly like it but it is what it is. Fortunately Grady is a class act who gives 100% all the time out there.

[BSN07]

I say impossible to predict the standings right now.

For sure, you'll have the usual suspects plus a few surprises coming out of nowhere.

I would not expect the Cardinals and the Red Sox to be in the World Series again. There is just too much luck involved getting there.

Just.Have.Fun.With.It.

[sk7326]

I say impossible to predict the standings right now.

For sure, you'll have the usual suspects plus a few surprises coming out of nowhere.

I would not expect the Cardinals and the Red Sox to be in the World Series again. There is just too much luck involved getting there.

It's impossible to pick them a month from now too. And when the playoff seeds are determined as well. I'd put the Tigers and Cards as the favorites in each league. (granted the former includes some of my general resistance to picking the Sox, just a tic I have as a fan)

[Jaddy]

AL East: Sox, Yanks, Rays, O's, Jays
AL Central: Tigers, Indians, Royals, Twins, White Sox
AL West: Texas, LA Angels, A's, Seattle, Astros
WC: Yanks, Rays
Div.: Sox v Yanks & Tigers v Texas
Champ: Sox v Tigers

NL East: Nats, ATL, Marlins, Philly, NY
NL Central: Reds, Pitt, Cards, MIL, Cubs
NL West: Dodgers, Giants, Rockies, Dbacks, Padres
WC: ATL v Pitt
Div: Nats v Pitt, Reds v Dodgers
Champ: Reds v Pitt

World Series: Sox v Reds, Sox in 5, MVP Clay, Papi breaks WS HR record, JBJr breaks WS OBP record, Xander wins ROY, Clay wins CY, Naps beard earns him a fine for covering red sox logo on jersey, no injuries and nothing bad happens at all.

[seabeachfred]

AL East: Sox, Yanks, Rays, O's, Jays
AL Central: Tigers, Indians, Royals, Twins, White Sox
AL West: Texas, LA Angels, A's, Seattle, Astros
WC: Yanks, Rays
Div.: Sox v Yanks & Tigers v Texas
Champ: Sox v Tigers

NL East: Nats, ATL, Marlins, Philly, NY
NL Central: Reds, Pitt, Cards, MIL, Cubs
NL West: Dodgers, Giants, Rockies, Dbacks, Padres
WC: ATL v Pitt
Div: Nats v Pitt, Reds v Dodgers
Champ: Reds v Pitt

World Series: Sox v Reds, Sox in 5, MVP Clay, Papi breaks WS HR record, JBJr breaks WS OBP record, Xander wins ROY, Clay wins CY, Naps beard earns him a fine for covering red sox logo on jersey, no injuries and nothing bad happens at all.

Gee Jaddy, can I get tickets for the Yellow Brick Road in Pollyannaville? Wow!!!!! I think I would feel like 21 again if what you predicted came to pass. You know that does seem a tad far fetched but I'm pulling like hell for you to be right.....I think all of us are.

[Palodios]

Gee Jaddy, can I get tickets for the Yellow Brick Road in Pollyannaville? Wow!!!!! I think I would feel like 21 again if what you predicted came to pass. You know that does seem a tad far fetched but I'm pulling like hell for you to be right.....I think all of us are.

In all fairness, that's pretty nearly what happened last year! Buchholz was the best pitcher in baseball for the first half of the year. Papi almost broke the hits record -- better than HR record IMO. Iggy came in second for ROY didn't he? There were injuries, but most of the majors ones were in areas of depth.

[seabeachfred]

In all fairness, that's pretty nearly what happened last year! Buchholz was the best pitcher in baseball for the first half of the year. Papi almost broke the hits record -- better than HR record IMO. Iggy came in second for ROY didn't he? There were injuries, but most of the majors ones were in areas of depth.

So that must mean the odds are pretty much stacked against us Pal, but stranger things have happened. We might be just the ball club to have a redo of the previous season. The way I see it, though, there are about ten teams that have a chance to go all the way this coming season so it looks like it's every team for themselves.

[Palodios]

So that must mean the odds are pretty much stacked against us Pal, but stranger things have happened. We might be just the ball club to have a redo of the previous season. The way I see it, though, there are about ten teams that have a chance to go all the way this coming season so it looks like it's every team for themselves.

I can't remember a Red Sox team with the kind of pitching depth that this team has. It seemed like we had so many years watching awful pitching throw games away. It doesnt seem like that is the case anymore.

[seabeachfred]

I can't remember a Red Sox team with the kind of pitching depth that this team has. It seemed like we had so many years watching awful pitching throw games away. It doesnt seem like that is the case anymore.

Pitching to their ability and achieving or even over-achieving and staying healthy Pal. That to me is the ticket. Maybe then I can make my reservation for the Yellow Brick Road-----or better going to see the WS again. What a season that would be. I'm wondering if we could do it? My heart says yes we can, my head says it going to take a full and complete team effort. What's your take?

[SoxSport]

I hope all you guys predicting a repeat for the Red Sox are right.

But I'm too much of a realist to think lightening can strike twice. :)

Not that I think they won't be in the hunt.

[mvp 78]

I hope all you guys predicting a repeat for the Red Sox are right.

But I'm too much of a realist to think lightening can strike twice. :)

Not that I think they won't be in the hunt.

Since 2003, lightning has struck 3 times. Why not a 4th?

[Bellhorn04]

Nobody can predict any of it. I have no idea why people even waste their time with this stuff. :D

[mvp 78]

Nobody can predict any of it. I have no idea why people even waste their time with this stuff. :D

Don't tell that to Thunder! He's a nouveau Jimmie the Greek!

[VA Sox Fan]

Nobody can predict any of it. I have no idea why people even waste their time with this stuff. :D

Amen Bell! To each his or her own I suppose.

[Bellhorn04]

Well OK, a few of the picks are pretty obvious. You don't have to be a baseball Nostredamus to know that the Dodgers will win their division or that the Astros will suck. :D

[sk7326]

Well OK, a few of the picks are pretty obvious. You don't have to be a baseball Nostredamus to know that the Dodgers will win their division or that the Astros will suck. :D

Astros will have the worst record in baseball. The Brewers are the worst team in baseball. Houston's work on the farm and whatnot (helps to have the former Cardinals scouting director as GM and all of those high picks) means that there is a corner to be turned. Brewers are in the Hobson Red Sox sort of hell of being both bad, and barren.

Dodgers are the team on paper - but the DBacks and Giants both have legitimate reasons to dream here. Granted, the Giants are paying a barely #4 starter $18M a year as a thank-you card.

[a700hitter]

I need to see more of the teams from the NL and othe AL divisions before making projections, but here is my projection for the ALE.

1. Yankees (and it will not be close if Jeter and Tex can put up representative numbers.)
2. Orioles (Tons of offense and although the starting pitching is mediocre, it is deep plus they have some live young guns)
3. Rays (Tons of live arms -- enough to stock the rotation and the pen. If they get any offense, they will catch the O's0
4. Red Sox -- it's very difficult to repeat and even harder to stay away from major injuries 2 years in a row.
5. Blue Jays -- They have done nothing to inject life into their team.

[Jaddy]

WS Game 1 Lineup: Jackie, Xander, Pedey, Papi, Naps, AJ, Will, Shane, Nava

[Palodios]

I need to see more of the teams from the NL and othe AL divisions before making projections, but here is my projection for the ALE.

1. Yankees (and it will not be close if Jeter and Tex can put up representative numbers.)
2. Orioles (Tons of offense and although the starting pitching is mediocre, it is deep plus they have some live young guns)
3. Rays (Tons of live arms -- enough to stock the rotation and the pen. If they get any offense, they will catch the O's0
4. Red Sox -- it's very difficult to repeat and even harder to stay away from major injuries 2 years in a row.
5. Blue Jays -- They have done nothing to inject life into their team.

You're unbelievable sometimes haha.

I don't think any of these teams have remotely as much depth as the Red Sox. They have a solid rotation, solid lineup, great defense, great bullpen, great bench, great minor league depth, and a great farm system. No players are coming off major surgery, besides Pedroia.

You can't say that about any of the other teams in the ALE. As long as they stay hungry and healthy, it wouldn't be out of the question to see them make another deep run this year.

[seabeachfred]

You're unbelievable sometimes haha.

I don't think any of these teams have remotely as much depth as the Red Sox. They have a solid rotation, solid lineup, great defense, great bullpen, great bench, great minor league depth, and a great farm system. No players are coming off major surgery, besides Pedroia.

You can't say that about any of the other teams in the ALE. As long as they stay hungry and healthy, it wouldn't be out of the question to see them make another deep run this year.

Well thanks for your counter-thrust in reaction to my friend's ALE predictions. He let all the air out of my balloon and all the wind out of my sails with those pearls. To see the Yankees back on top of the division and us buried deep within it is too hateful to contemplate. Hey Ted, are you trying to ruin the freakin' day?

[a700hitter]

You're unbelievable sometimes haha.

I don't think any of these teams have remotely as much depth as the Red Sox. They have a solid rotation, solid lineup, great defense, great bullpen, great bench, great minor league depth, and a great farm system. No players are coming off major surgery, besides Pedroia.

You can't say that about any of the other teams in the ALE. As long as they stay hungry and healthy, it wouldn't be out of the question to see them make another deep run this year.
LOL!! Pal, let me explain. I almost never will make a prediction against my team for superstitious reasons. Usually, I refrain against predictions regarding standings. However, last off season I was so down about their chances that I predicted a 4th place finish. I really can't argue with how that turned out. Being superstitious... Well, you get it now... right?

[seabeachfred]

LOL!! Pal, let me explain. I almost never will make a prediction against my team for superstitious reasons. Usually, I refrain against predictions regarding standings. However, last off season I was so down about their chances that I predicted a 4th place finish. I really can't argue with how that turned out. Being superstitious... Well, you get it now... right?

Well let me remind you of something we both said to one another last March when we were either drunk, in a stupor, or out of our minds. We both made the ridiculous argument that if everyone in the division beat up on everyone else and the teams in the other divisions were strong enough, we might actually cobble about 85 or 86 wins and sneak away with the division. I remember both of us saying it could happen even if neither one of us really believed a word of it. Well, I know I didn't.

[SoxSport]

Which team will luck out this year? I wonder if it isn't the Orioles time. But they have to get lucky with their pitching.

[mvp 78]

Sox
Yanks
Rays
Jays
O's

[RedSoxfanforlife305]

Wow, a700 put the Sox in 4th place. So disrespectful, I can't believe you would predict something like that.

[Thunder]

Which team will luck out this year? I wonder if it isn't the Orioles time. But they have to get lucky with their pitching.

I have a feeling that the Jays will. They have a good team, but just need to stay healthy. Bautista has to step up too.

[jacksonianmarch]

You're unbelievable sometimes haha.

I don't think any of these teams have remotely as much depth as the Red Sox. They have a solid rotation, solid lineup, great defense, great bullpen, great bench, great minor league depth, and a great farm system. No players are coming off major surgery, besides Pedroia.

You can't say that about any of the other teams in the ALE. As long as they stay hungry and healthy, it wouldn't be out of the question to see them make another deep run this year.

Lose Drew, no additional signing. Lose Salty, bring in an old and unproductive malcontent in Pierzynski. Lose Ellsbury, bring in a guy who hasn't played in 2 yrs in Sizemore. Where is the depth on the offensive side of the ball? What happens when Nava, Carp, and Napoli post .300BABIP seasons? You lost 11 wins and brought in 1 guy who can't stay on the field, one guy who is in serious decline and then fill 2 holes with rookies and call it depth? Cmon man. You have considerably less depth than you had a year ago and you will feel it.

[BSN07]

Lose Drew, no additional signing. Lose Salty, bring in an old and unproductive malcontent in Pierzynski. Lose Ellsbury, bring in a guy who hasn't played in 2 yrs in Sizemore. Where is the depth on the offensive side of the ball? What happens when Nava, Carp, and Napoli post .300BABIP seasons? You lost 11 wins and brought in 1 guy who can't stay on the field, one guy who is in serious decline and then fill 2 holes with rookies and call it depth? Cmon man. You have considerably less depth than you had a year ago and you will feel it.

A Yankee fan citing depth as an issue for another AL East team hahaha Yanks are the most top heavy team in the league with little to no depth just about everywhere. But Ya I'm sure everyone on the 25 man roster will be fine all year.

[mvp 78]

Beltran is old. Ells has a history of injury plagued seasons. Tanaka could flame out. Mo retired. Brian Roberts is an opening day starter. Let's just ignore that though!

[a700hitter]

Wow, a700 put the Sox in 4th place. So disrespectful, I can't believe you would predict something like that.Did you see my explanation?

[Bellhorn04]

Beltran is old. Ells has a history of injury plagued seasons. Tanaka could flame out. Mo retired. Brian Roberts is an opening day starter. Let's just ignore that though!

And you didn't even mention Tex and Jeter's 'questionable', to put it kindly, durability status.

[a700hitter]

And you didn't even mention Tex and Jeter's 'questionable', to put it kindly, durability status.The biggest challeng to the Yankees will be building a bull pen. With Mo at the end of their pen for 2 decades, they only had to build a middle pen. Now, they have to build an entire pen.

As for all of their other question marks, there is no denying those, but remember that we had a ton going into last season.

[jacksonianmarch]

Beltran is old. Ells has a history of injury plagued seasons. Tanaka could flame out. Mo retired. Brian Roberts is an opening day starter. Let's just ignore that though!

So your answer when I make a claim that the sox depth isn't as strong as it was a yr ago is that the Yankees don't have depth. Good retort. Keep on, just, keep on truckin!

[jacksonianmarch]

The biggest challeng to the Yankees will be building a bull pen. With Mo at the end of their pen for 2 decades, they only had to build a middle pen. Now, they have to build an entire pen.

As for all of their other question marks, there is no denying those, but remember that we had a ton going into last season.

Exactly. I think Robertson is an elite pen talent, one who can close and be effective doing so. I am not convinced we'll build a bridge quickly enough. By the end of the yr, I expect our pen to have figured it out. But leading up to that, we're gonna have some growing pains.

[jacksonianmarch]

A Yankee fan citing depth as an issue for another AL East team hahaha Yanks are the most top heavy team in the league with little to no depth just about everywhere. But Ya I'm sure everyone on the 25 man roster will be fine all year.

Maybe we can expect career years out of everyone on the 25 man. Or maybe, when we get career years out of everyone on the roster in 2013, we can expect them to continue those against the odds and against all statistical metrics for another season, right? The Kool-Aid is a-flowin this yr.

[a700hitter]

Well let me remind you of something we both said to one another last March when we were either drunk, in a stupor, or out of our minds. We both made the ridiculous argument that if everyone in the division beat up on everyone else and the teams in the other divisions were strong enough, we might actually cobble about 85 or 86 wins and sneak away with the division. I remember both of us saying it could happen even if neither one of us really believed a word of it. Well, I know I didn't.I was just trying to cling to hope in the Spring.

[Bellhorn04]

Maybe we can expect career years out of everyone on the 25 man. Or maybe, when we get career years out of everyone on the roster in 2013, we can expect them to continue those against the odds and against all statistical metrics for another season, right? The Kool-Aid is a-flowin this yr.

Kool Aid is flowing in both Sox and Yankee camps. We're defending champs and you guys signed some elite talent.

The reality is both teams have plenty of X factors.

[a700hitter]

Kool Aid is flowing in both Sox and Yankee camps. We're defending champs and you guys signed some elite talent.

The reality is both teams have plenty of X factors.This is Kool aid drinking season.

[RedSoxfanforlife305]

Did you see my explanation?

I did, I was somewhat joking.


So your answer when I make a claim that the sox depth isn't as strong as it was a yr ago is that the Yankees don't have depth. Good retort. Keep on, just, keep on truckin!

LOL worry about your own team. You do this every offseason trying to get our hopes down. We're the 2013 champs, you didn't make the playoffs. I think there is more concern with the Yankees, even though you're a big ass homer and won't admit it. KEEP SPINNING THOSE WHEELS BOY, SPIN THEM!

[a700hitter]

I did, I was somewhat joking.
I am putting you on advance notice that if we win the championship in 2014, I will again pick them for 4th place in 2015.

[reYoukilis]

Lose Drew, no additional signing. Lose Salty, bring in an old and unproductive malcontent in Pierzynski. Lose Ellsbury, bring in a guy who hasn't played in 2 yrs in Sizemore. Where is the depth on the offensive side of the ball? What happens when Nava, Carp, and Napoli post .300BABIP seasons? You lost 11 wins and brought in 1 guy who can't stay on the field, one guy who is in serious decline and then fill 2 holes with rookies and call it depth? Cmon man. You have considerably less depth than you had a year ago and you will feel it.Pierzynski is not unproductive. He'll be more clutch than Salty. But the Red Sox are more about building a good team not just this year but in the coming years. We have alot of young blood ready for their shot and a slew of good prospects in the waiting. Because of that we probably have enough cash to plug any holes we need to fill during the year.

That we won a WS in what was supposed to be just the beginning of rebuilding says the Yanks should be scared.

[Bellhorn04]

I am putting you on advance notice that if we win the championship in 2014, I will again pick them for 4th place in 2015.

With your psychology, why make them at all?

[a700hitter]

With your psychology, why make them at all?Because I rarely predict standings and I had never predicted the Sox for 4th place until last year. They won the Championship. I am superstitious so I am picking them 4th again. What are you not getting about this?

[jacksonianmarch]

This is Kool aid drinking season.

That's for sure. Let's just run down the list of improbables from last yr...

1. David Ortiz returns to his prime and plays a full season. The guy had trouble staying on the field the yr before and had some up and down yrs before then. So, at 38, he puts up a season akin to his age 30 season? Really, that happened

2. Pedroia blows out a ligament in his thumb that is needed for stability. He goes on to post a 5+ win season.

3. Clay Buchholz pitched like Pedro a la 1999 for half a season. The injury was the only thing that could equalize his yr.

4. Daniel Nava puts up an all star caliber yr a year after being DFAd.

5. Two of your closers blow out their arms. Your third closer, who has a long injury history, posts what is likely the best season for a reliever ever.

6. Mike Carp has a near .900 OPS

7. Salty goes from one of the worst catchers in the game to a 3+ win season in his walk yr

8. For the 60 games Iglesias played for you, he hit over .300. He'll never do that again

9. John Lackey goes from worst pitcher in baseball to beer and chicken scapegoat, gets TJ in his mid 30s and returns an ace

10. Stephen Drew stays healthy and posts a 3 win season after his ankle fell off.

I'm sure there are more, but you guys had EVERYTHING go right. The likelihood that happens again while losing key talent and relying on rookies up the middle is absurd

[a700hitter]

That's for sure. Let's just run down the list of improbables from last yr...

1. David Ortiz returns to his prime and plays a full season. The guy had trouble staying on the field the yr before and had some up and down yrs before then. So, at 38, he puts up a season akin to his age 30 season? Really, that happened

2. Pedroia blows out a ligament in his thumb that is needed for stability. He goes on to post a 5+ win season.

3. Clay Buchholz pitched like Pedro a la 1999 for half a season. The injury was the only thing that could equalize his yr.

4. Daniel Nava puts up an all star caliber yr a year after being DFAd.

5. Two of your closers blow out their arms. Your third closer, who has a long injury history, posts what is likely the best season for a reliever ever.

6. Mike Carp has a near .900 OPS

7. Salty goes from one of the worst catchers in the game to a 3+ win season in his walk yr

8. For the 60 games Iglesias played for you, he hit over .300. He'll never do that again

9. John Lackey goes from worst pitcher in baseball to beer and chicken scapegoat, gets TJ in his mid 30s and returns an ace

10. Stephen Drew stays healthy and posts a 3 win season after his ankle fell off.

I'm sure there are more, but you guys had EVERYTHING go right. The likelihood that happens again while losing key talent and relying on rookies up the middle is absurd
Also, don't forget that Mike Napoli was diagnosed with a degenerative hip condition in both hips but he played a full productive season.

and

light hitting rookie SS Jose Iglesias put up a .330 BA and .785 OPS in over 200 plate appearances for Boston. It was questionable whether he could stick at the MLB level, and

Jon Lester righted his sinking ship from 2012.

[BornToRun]

AL East:
1. Boston
2. Tampa
3. NY
4. Baltimore
5. Toronto

AL West:
1. Oakland
2. Texas
3. Seattle
4. LAA
5. Houston

AL Central:
1. Detroit
2. KC
3. Chicago
4. Cleveland
5. Minnesota

NL East;
1. Washington
2. Atlanta
3. New York
4. Philadelphia
5. Miami

NL West:
1. LA
2. SF
3. Arizona
4. Colorado
5. San Diego

NL Central:
1. St. Louis
2. Pittsburgh
3. Cincinnati
4. Milwaukee
5. Chicago

AL Wildcard:
1. Texas
2. Tampa

NL Wildcard:
1. Atlanta
2. Pittsburgh

AL Playoffs:
Tampa over Texas

Boston over Tampa
Oakland over Detroit

Boston over Oakland

NL Playoffs:
Atlanta over Pittsburgh

LA over Atlanta
St. Louis over Washington

LA over St. Louis

World Series:

Boston over LA, in 6 games

[mvp 78]

Everything went right last year including: WMB getting demoted, David Ross missing half the season, Drew sucking balls for 2 months after a ST injury, Hanrahan sucking and missing 90% of the season, backup closer Andrew Bailey being a garbage pile, Andrew Miller getting a season ending injury and Buchholz missing the 2nd half of the season...

Seriously, NOT ONE THING went wrong last year.

[rjortiz]

Everything went right last year including: WMB getting demoted, David Ross missing half the season, Drew sucking balls for 2 months after a ST injury, Hanrahan sucking and missing 90% of the season, backup closer Andrew Bailey being a garbage pile, Andrew Miller getting a season ending injury and Buchholz missing the 2nd half of the season...

Seriously, NOT ONE THING went wrong last year.

Yeah, losing your backup catcher, and injuries paving the way for an all-time best season from a closer is just awful luck.

[mvp 78]

Yeah, losing your backup catcher, and injuries paving the way for an all-time best season from a closer is just awful luck.

My contention was with the phrasing "everything went right." Clearly, it didn't.

[rjortiz]

My contention was with the phrasing "everything went right." Clearly, it didn't.

Not surprised to see you making a bad point. You want to be a literalist and assert that 2%, instead of 0% of things went wrong, go ahead, but it seems like a giant waste of time.

[seabeachfred]

Wow, a700 put the Sox in 4th place. So disrespectful, I can't believe you would predict something like that.

He explained why RSFFL. He said he hates to predict his team to finish first because he's afraid that will jinx them. You know as well as I do that baseball fans are full of superstitions and that one is Ted's. I don't like to predict finishes either for primarily the same reason but now even more so because of the division we're in. Look at mvp's picks. He has the O's dead last but you know what? With their recent haul of a good starter and a slugging outfielder they could actually come all the way and win the AL East this season. That's how close and tough our division is.....and so could the Rays, the Yankees and us. Hell, even the Jays might make a big turnaround. I give kudos to those who make these predictions; I only hope they thought out those picks carefully.

[seabeachfred]

I was just trying to cling to hope in the Spring.

So was I Ted. I really had no clue what was going to happen to our team last season when they assembled at ST. The best I could hope for, and under perfect conditions, was maybe sneaking off with the AL East---a long long long shot at best. Since your dad was a Brooklyn fan as I was as a kid in Queens before my family moved West, I think you can understand what I am going to say better than most of our friends on this board. Right now if I was to compare our Red Sox to any defending WS Champion it would be the 1959 LA Dodgers. They came to LA the year before and finished 7th in an eight team league and they really sucked.....which made me do cartwheels. In '59 they came back, tied for the league lead, won a playoff against the Braves and beat the White Sox in the WS. In 1960 they had a large number of good prospects vieing for spots occupied by the old guard---Hodges, Gilliam, Snider, Podres, etc. They finished fourth. I'm hoping any comparison to that miserable outfit ends with that and we do not succumb to an off season of settling into the middle of the pack. They went with their old guard; we have the chance to having our "old guard", still fairly young for the most part, and augmented by some good young players------Bogey, JBjr and WMB----and that is one reason I don't want to resign Drew. I want to get this mixture of youth and experience blended in this season----and it can be done successfully.

[seabeachfred]

Because I rarely predict standings and I had never predicted the Sox for 4th place until last year. They won the Championship. I am superstitious so I am picking them 4th again. What are you not getting about this?

Go for it my friend.....and worry the shit out of Jacko. He probably wishes you picked the Red Sox to go all the way. I wish I could know that guy personally just to read him and know how he really feels about his team not making the Playoffs. So many Yankee fans I know have this feeling of entitlement that tells them a WS Title or it is a failed season. To give Jacko credit, he doesn't seem to be that type of Yankee fan, but, as I said, I don't know him personally to anything but take an educated guess at what motivates him.

[seabeachfred]

That's for sure. Let's just run down the list of improbables from last yr...

1. David Ortiz returns to his prime and plays a full season. The guy had trouble staying on the field the yr before and had some up and down yrs before then. So, at 38, he puts up a season akin to his age 30 season? Really, that happened

2. Pedroia blows out a ligament in his thumb that is needed for stability. He goes on to post a 5+ win season.

3. Clay Buchholz pitched like Pedro a la 1999 for half a season. The injury was the only thing that could equalize his yr.

4. Daniel Nava puts up an all star caliber yr a year after being DFAd.

5. Two of your closers blow out their arms. Your third closer, who has a long injury history, posts what is likely the best season for a reliever ever.

6. Mike Carp has a near .900 OPS

7. Salty goes from one of the worst catchers in the game to a 3+ win season in his walk yr

8. For the 60 games Iglesias played for you, he hit over .300. He'll never do that again

9. John Lackey goes from worst pitcher in baseball to beer and chicken scapegoat, gets TJ in his mid 30s and returns an ace

10. Stephen Drew stays healthy and posts a 3 win season after his ankle fell off.

I'm sure there are more, but you guys had EVERYTHING go right. The likelihood that happens again while losing key talent and relying on rookies up the middle is absurd

As Ted said, not everything went right for us last season, just the vast majority of things. OK on that, but keep in mind that from 2009 through 2012, we had about the worst run of luck imaginable. Bad signings, players running into one another for season long injuries, pitchers coming up lame, players going into the deep freeze in their stats, a totally fucked up medical staff that made one miserable and wrong diagnoses after another, a veteran manager who became so distracted he was little more than a pet bear in his last season, and a new manager that was a total car wreck. Did I leave anything out? If so, jump in fellow Red Soxers. I'm sure I probably have. So Jacko, if things really even out in the long run as they say, or even if they don't always do precisely but come close, then we are due for a couple more seasons to make up for those four that we witnessed before the rising of 2013.

[seabeachfred]

AL East:
1. Boston
2. Tampa
3. NY
4. Baltimore
5. Toronto

AL West:
1. Oakland
2. Texas
3. Seattle
4. LAA
5. Houston

AL Central:
1. Detroit
2. KC
3. Chicago
4. Cleveland
5. Minnesota

NL East;
1. Washington
2. Atlanta
3. New York
4. Philadelphia
5. Miami

NL West:
1. LA
2. SF
3. Arizona
4. Colorado
5. San Diego

NL Central:
1. St. Louis
2. Pittsburgh
3. Cincinnati
4. Milwaukee
5. Chicago

AL Wildcard:
1. Texas
2. Tampa

NL Wildcard:
1. Atlanta
2. Pittsburgh

AL Playoffs:
Tampa over Texas

Boston over Tampa
Oakland over Detroit

Boston over Oakland

NL Playoffs:
Atlanta over Pittsburgh

LA over Atlanta
St. Louis over Washington

LA over St. Louis

World Series:

Boston over LA, in 6 games

That almost matches what I would predict my friend but am scared to, but this could be your lucky day. I would love to have the season end the way you say it would. Nothing would please me more than see our Red Sox in the WS again except for being able to play the Dodgers and slay them in the World Series. That happens, you get in touch with and I will send you a check for $75.00 to be used for your favorite charity---you or anything else. That's how much that would mean to me.

[seabeachfred]

Everything went right last year including: WMB getting demoted, David Ross missing half the season, Drew sucking balls for 2 months after a ST injury, Hanrahan sucking and missing 90% of the season, backup closer Andrew Bailey being a garbage pile, Andrew Miller getting a season ending injury and Buchholz missing the 2nd half of the season...

Seriously, NOT ONE THING went wrong last year.

Glad you cleared the air with that one mvp. I took the 2009-2012 era to show just how much the gods of fate were playing Russian Roulette with our ball club---and winning. We have a lot go wrong last year but I guess what Jacko was thinking was nothing went wrong in comparison to other seasons. If we wasn't thinking is that mode, then he was just paddling as fast as his mouth would let him up a river of bullshit trying to save his own ass at our expense.

[Thunder]

That almost matches what I would predict my friend but am scared to, but this could be your lucky day. I would love to have the season end the way you say it would. Nothing would please me more than see our Red Sox in the WS again except for being able to play the Dodgers and slay them in the World Series. That happens, you get in touch with and I will send you a check for $75.00 to be used for your favorite charity---you or anything else. That's how much that would mean to me.

Those predictions are also eerily similar to mine. Seems like there's a general consensus to how things will play out.

[rjortiz]

A Yankee fan citing depth as an issue for another AL East team hahaha Yanks are the most top heavy team in the league with little to no depth just about everywhere. But Ya I'm sure everyone on the 25 man roster will be fine all year.


Beltran is old. Ells has a history of injury plagued seasons. Tanaka could flame out. Mo retired. Brian Roberts is an opening day starter. Let's just ignore that though!


And you didn't even mention Tex and Jeter's 'questionable', to put it kindly, durability status.

Saying that the Red Sox depth isn't bad, because the Yankees depth is bad refutes absolutely nothing.

[reYoukilis]

Many things went right but that's what happens on championship teams. The Red Sox are no different. I see it more like people playing to their potential not beyond it.

[jacksonianmarch]

Your backup catcher got hurt? You're going with that? Oh and Hanrahan and Bailey go down, so your third option to close POSTS THE BEST SEASON EVER FOR A RELIEVER. So, you consider that a bad thing? Drew sucked for two months, yet still posted a 3 WAR season. WMB was demoted and in his stead, Iglesias hit over .300. Really, cry me a fucking river. You're season was downright ridiculous. It won't happen again

[Palodios]

Your backup catcher got hurt? You're going with that?
When your starting catcher has Salty's defense, and awful splits, yeah it makes a big difference. They lost maybe 1-2 wins there -- WAR never tells the full tale on catchers.


Oh and Hanrahan and Bailey go down, so your third option to close POSTS THE BEST SEASON EVER FOR A RELIEVER.
If Robertson and Logan went down, would you be saying "Oh, well we have the best closer ever so it doesn't matter"? Even with Uehara in the 9th, it pushed up several arms from middle-inning jobs to late inning jobs. Workman threw 8th inning stints in the World Series. Yeah, that's not what you want to see for your team.


Iglesias hit over .300.
And so will Xander. Your point?

[SoxSport]

Glad you cleared the air with that one mvp. I took the 2009-2012 era to show just how much the gods of fate were playing Russian Roulette with our ball club---and winning. We have a lot go wrong last year but I guess what Jacko was thinking was nothing went wrong in comparison to other seasons. If we wasn't thinking is that mode, then he was just paddling as fast as his mouth would let him up a river of bullshit trying to save his own ass at our expense.

What's surprising is they pretty much had the same record last year after losing Buchholz. A lot of things went wrong, but a lot of things must have gone right to balance out. You go through the team, and you can see all the successes they had and their great depth. I'm not surprised a lot of fans are picking them to repeat--they have a hell of a team right now. Plus strong coaching. But there are a lot of other good teams, too, and serendipity is always a major player.

[rjortiz]

When your starting catcher has Salty's defense, and awful splits, yeah it makes a big difference. They lost maybe 1-2 wins there -- WAR never tells the full tale on catchers.

You just made this up.



If Robertson and Logan went down, would you be saying "Oh, well we have the best closer ever so it doesn't matter"? Even with Uehara in the 9th, it pushed up several arms from middle-inning jobs to late inning jobs. Workman threw 8th inning stints in the World Series. Yeah, that's not what you want to see for your team.

Hanrahan was nowhere near the quality of Robertson, and as good as Miller was he still was a 7th/8th inning option. Not a big loss.



And so will Xander. Your point?

Xander won't. His point was that Middlebrooks sucked, but they found a better option anyway.

[Palodios]

You just made this up.

I ballparked the wins number, but it is by no means unreasonable. Salty had a .600 OPS against lefties. Ross had a .800 OPS against lefties. WAR does not factor in game calling, and pitch framing-- an area Ross excels in, and Salty fails at. http://www.fangraphs.com/library/defense/catcher-defense/


Hanrahan was nowhere near the quality of Robertson, and as good as Miller was he still was a 7th/8th inning option. Not a big loss.
You do realize Hanrahan was a top notch closer before he got to Boston right? 2011: 1.83/ 1.05 / .220 2012: 2.72/1.27/.187
I was referring to Bailey, not Miller.


Xander won't.
He hit .300 in all minor league environments where he has a large enough sample size, and .296 in the playoffs.


In summary, don't be a dick -- especially if you don't have your facts straight. You seem to be making enemies quickly here.

[seabeachfred]

I ballparked the wins number, but it is by no means unreasonable. Salty had a .600 OPS against lefties. Ross had a .800 OPS against lefties. WAR does not factor in game calling, and pitch framing-- an area Ross excels in, and Salty fails at. http://www.fangraphs.com/library/defense/catcher-defense/


You do realize Hanrahan was a top notch closer before he got to Boston right? 2011: 1.83/ 1.05 / .220 2012: 2.72/1.27/.187
I was referring to Bailey, not Miller.


He hit .300 in all minor league environments where he has a large enough sample size, and .296 in the playoffs.


In summary, don't be a dick -- especially if you don't have your facts straight. You seem to be making enemies quickly here.

I finally figured out that rj is a Yankee fan. That's what senior moments can to you Pal. I should have had it figured out from the get go.

[rjortiz]

I ballparked the wins number, but it is by no means unreasonable. Salty had a .600 OPS against lefties. Ross had a .800 OPS against lefties. WAR does not factor in game calling, and pitch framing-- an area Ross excels in, and Salty fails at. http://www.fangraphs.com/library/defense/catcher-defense/

Your estimate of 1.5-2 WAR loss for 150 LHP PA's from Ross was completely made up, and exaggerated. Besides, even if it were true that losing a backup catcher was worth 2 wins, what was the margin of victory in the AL East last year? It would have made no difference.



You do realize Hanrahan was a top notch closer before he got to Boston right? 2011: 1.83/ 1.05 / .220 2012: 2.72/1.27/.187
I was referring to Bailey, not Miller.

Hanrahan and Bailey were both awful in 2013, so their loss was a positive.


He hit .300 in all minor league environments where he has a large enough sample size, and .296 in the playoffs.


In summary, don't be a dick -- especially if you don't have your facts straight. You seem to be making enemies quickly here.

That means he's going to make a seamless transition. After all, he hit .321 in AA ball, so he's going to hit .300 as a 20 year old rookie in MLB.

Steamer - .261
Oliver - .269
ZIPS - .271

Keep your expectations lower. Also, if I'm making "enemies" on a baseball forum, that says more about you. You care too much about a game to let it affect you this much.

[rjortiz]

I finally figured out that rj is a Yankee fan. That's what senior moments can to you Pal. I should have had it figured out from the get go.

In the first post of this thread, I predicted the Red Sox will win the World Series, yet I'm a Yankee fan because I think the loss of a backup catcher is not that big a deal.

Another senior moment?

[jacksonianmarch]

I ballparked the wins number, but it is by no means unreasonable. Salty had a .600 OPS against lefties. Ross had a .800 OPS against lefties. WAR does not factor in game calling, and pitch framing-- an area Ross excels in, and Salty fails at. http://www.fangraphs.com/library/defense/catcher-defense/


You do realize Hanrahan was a top notch closer before he got to Boston right? 2011: 1.83/ 1.05 / .220 2012: 2.72/1.27/.187
I was referring to Bailey, not Miller.


He hit .300 in all minor league environments where he has a large enough sample size, and .296 in the playoffs.


In summary, don't be a dick -- especially if you don't have your facts straight. You seem to be making enemies quickly here.

Bogaerts has hit .300 or higher exactly once in the minors over a full season since he came stateside in 2011.

2011- .260
2012- .307
2013- .297

Just wanted to give you some facts. BTW, if Bogaerts somehow hits .300 in his age 21 season, then you should line up a spot on the wall for his number to be retired. The kid can play, but let's hold off on predicting an all-star rookie campaign until you actually see how he starts the yr. And let's also remember that some high level prospects do not live up to expectations. Where is the 20 time all-star in waiting now? Dojji, can you help me with this? I think the kid plays well, but the likelihood that he's a .300 hitter is insanely low.

[Palodios]

Your estimate of 1.5-2 WAR loss for 150 LHP PA's from Ross was completely made up, and exaggerated. Besides, even if it were true that losing a backup catcher was worth 2 wins, what was the margin of victory in the AL East last year? It would have made no difference.


I said 1 to 2 wins. I am not saying 4-5 wins, or something crazy like that. We're talking about turning a .600 OPS to a .800 OPS for half the season, and adding defense for half the season. Sure it is conceptual, but it is perfectly logical.


Hanrahan and Bailey were both awful in 2013, so their loss was a positive. You're making absolutely no sense. If Robertson and Rivera started the season with 9.00 ERAs, and then immediately got hurt, would you be arguing that the loss of their seasons was a positive for the Yankees? Absolutely not.



That means he's going to make a seamless transition. After all, he hit .321 in AA ball, so he's going to hit .300 as a 20 year old rookie in MLB.
Maybe, maybe not. But all signs point to him starting out strong.




Keep your expectations lower. Also, if I'm making "enemies" on a baseball forum, that says more about you. You care too much about a game to let it affect you this much.
This has nothing to do with my affection for the game -- more about the way you're talking to myself and other posters here.

[mvp 78]

Bogaerts has hit .300 or higher exactly once in the minors over a full season since he came stateside in 2011.

2011- .260
2012- .307
2013- .297

Just wanted to give you some facts. BTW, if Bogaerts somehow hits .300 in his age 21 season, then you should line up a spot on the wall for his number to be retired. The kid can play, but let's hold off on predicting an all-star rookie campaign until you actually see how he starts the yr. And let's also remember that some high level prospects do not live up to expectations. Where is the 20 time all-star in waiting now? Dojji, can you help me with this? I think the kid plays well, but the likelihood that he's a .300 hitter is insanely low.

Says the guy who had shelf space reserved for Pineda CY trophies...

[jacksonianmarch]

where is that? I am just happy Pineda is throwing with velocity. I don't even think he breaks camp with the Yankees

[rjortiz]

Says the guy who had shelf space reserved for Pineda CY trophies...

Notice how there is no attempt to refute the point.

[jacksonianmarch]

Notice how there is no attempt to refute the point.

It's a ridiculous point. I've never said anything about Pineda winning a CY. I'd be happy if he actually found the mound in a Yankee uniform. I am cautiously optimistic about him. But I am not counting on him

[mvp 78]

Sorry that some people struggle with hyperbole on here.

[seabeachfred]

In the first post of this thread, I predicted the Red Sox will win the World Series, yet I'm a Yankee fan because I think the loss of a backup catcher is not that big a deal.

Another senior moment?

Blew that one too, did I? Well, back to the laboratory. Help me out RJ. Are you a Red Sox or Yankee fan? As you posted I can use a little help there.

[rjortiz]

Sorry that some people struggle with hyperbole on here.

While you struggle with logic and reasoning.

[Thunder]

Sorry that some people struggle with hyperbole on here.

All the eyes in the world turn to me.

[Jaddy]

WS Game 1 Lineup: Jackie, Xander, Pedey, Papi, Naps, AJ, Will, Shane, Nava

If the kids light it up in ST I wouldn't be too surprised if Farrell ran this lineup out on Opening Day. If this lineup can work I think its the best case scenario and it would make sense Farrell wants to give it a shot to be successful. If Bradley bats .400 again and Xander is smoking bombs why not? Worst case they go cold and sink back to 8 and 9

[reYoukilis]

If the kids light it up in ST I wouldn't be too surprised if Farrell ran this lineup out on Opening Day. If this lineup can work I think its the best case scenario and it would make sense Farrell wants to give it a shot to be successful. If Bradley bats .400 again and Xander is smoking bombs why not? Worst case they go cold and sink back to 8 and 9You dont want to disrespect your veterans only to put them higher if the youngsters dont work out. Thats just...no.

Edit-My prediction is Victorino, Pedroia, Papi, Napoli, Nava/Gomes, XB, AJ, WMB, JBJ

[Jaddy]

You dont want to disrespect your veterans only to put them higher if the youngsters dont work out. Thats just...no.

Edit-My prediction is Victorino, Pedroia, Papi, Napoli, Nava/Gomes, XB, AJ, WMB, JBJ

Good point reYoukilis, veteran respect and clubhouse hierarchy are probably greater influences than one might think when just throwing together a dream line up. We can look at what happened without it under Valentine. I read an article that made a point similar to that earlier today; it talked about Farrell and Tito in contrast to Valentine, whom the players didn't like or respect, particularly in the close quarters of the sox clubhouse.

But for the sake of conversation, and not giving up on my hopes and dreams (lol!), I wonder if that is less of a concern among some of these guys. Shane and Nava seem the type, if there are any in the majors, that would put their ego aside if John thought it best. And imagine the turnover rate for a lineup with Victorino and Nava in the 8 and 9! I agree your lineup is far more likely, but Spring is a time for lofty ideals, just throwing it out there! Cheers!

[reYoukilis]

Cheers! Trust me, I want your hopes and dreams to come true too, as well as alot of these other prospects, but I think its better to take it slower. Other than the reason I mentioned, theres they just won a WS where they delivered, there and all year long and another is that time is on the Red Sox side, so no need to rush things.

[Spitball]

AL East

Boston
*New York
Tampa Bay
Baltimore
Toronto

The Red Sox will win AL East easily and will win the WS over LA. The Yankees, Rays, and Orioles will battle it out for second. The Yanks will win out for the WC because Cano's production will be covered by improvements to key positions.

AL Central

Detroit
Kansas City
Cleveland
Minnesota
Chicago

Detroit will win easily and KC will beat out the Tribe in a close battle for second. Detroit will lose to Oakland for place in ALCS.

AL West

Texas
*Oakland
Los Angeles
Seattle
Houston

Texas will barely beat out Oakland, but the A's will beat out the Yankees for the Wild Card.

NL East

Washington
*Atlanta
New York
Philadelphia
Miami

Washington will beat out the Braves in a close race. The Braves beat Cincinnati in Wild Card game.

NL Central

St. Louis
*Cincinnati
Milwaukee
Pittsburgh
Chicago

Cards are the best team in NL, but will lose to LA in championship game. If Cueto is healthy, the Reds have the best rotation in NL but lose to Braves in Wild Card game.

NL West

Los Angeles
San Francisco
Arizona
San Diego
Colorado

LA goes to WS but loses to Boston in five games.

[vjcsmoke]

I think this 'veteran respect' thing is overrated in terms of ordering your lineup. You set your lineup as best as possible to WIN GAMES. Not to stroke anybody's ego.

That being said, I think JBJ is too unproven to start at anywhere but the 9 hole, IF he makes the starting lineup.
I think that XB starts batting in the #6 hole, but I think he easily has the talent to eventually take over the #3 position if he plays up to his immense superstar potential.
To me, XB is like another Hanley or Nomar just waiting to happen.

If that best case scenario happens we are probably looking at--

1. Victorino
2. Pedroia
3. XB
4. Ortiz
5. Napoli
6. WMB
7. Gomes or Nava
8. AJ Pierzynski or Ross
9. JBJ or Grady Sizemore

[sk7326]

I think this 'veteran respect' thing is overrated in terms of ordering your lineup. You set your lineup as best as possible to WIN GAMES. Not to stroke anybody's ego.

That being said, I think JBJ is too unproven to start at anywhere but the 9 hole, IF he makes the starting lineup.
I think that XB starts batting in the #6 hole, but I think he easily has the talent to eventually take over the #3 position if he plays up to his immense superstar potential.
To me, XB is like another Hanley or Nomar just waiting to happen.

If that best case scenario happens we are probably looking at--

1. Victorino
2. Pedroia
3. XB
4. Ortiz
5. Napoli
6. WMB
7. Gomes or Nava
8. AJ Pierzynski or Ross
9. JBJ or Grady Sizemore

I don't know if it's veteran respect so much as making sure the kids can handle the jobs. Being able to handle the defense at SS is something that XB is still working - and I could see the Sox wanting to keeping him out of the pressure of a run scoring spot in the order as he focuses on his defensive game. I expect that your lineup is a good April lineup - that said, if Bradley shows the progress he has shown at every level so far, he'll be at the top of the order by June. He just needs to focus less on the power game and stick to getting on base and letting the power numbers take care of themselves. (he has double figures-ish HR power, but should not be obsessed with 15-20 jacks or anything like that)

[reYoukilis]

I wonder how a Bradley/Nava, 1-2 punch would work at the top of the lineup? That'd be some good OBP power for Pedroia, Papi and Napoli.

[Dojji]

Not until JBJ proves he can hit big league pitching.

Once he does that, if he starts looking like a real option, I expect to see a lot of him in the 1 hole.

Until then, at least against righthanded pitching, your best leadoff option on the team is very probably Daniel Nava. Best of a number of bad options I should add, just to counter the obvious garbage from people who know who they are.

It would be Pedroia but I want him hitting lower than that in the order since he has the right skillset to work the count and extend a rally if he's hitting with runners on base. Seems a shame to waste him in the 1 spot when other guys can get on base and are less useful with a man on.

[redsoxrules]

I'd put Victorino as leadoff

[Dojji]

Victorino's a little light in the OBP department for my taste. He did alright last year but his track record suggests a mild regression next year.

It's a matter of difference in strategy I suppose, but job 1 in my mind for a leadoff hitter is to get his butt on base and Victorino's only OK at that.

i could see him taking the leadoff against lefthanders though. Having Nava bat leadoff against righthanders for the .411 OBP v right, and Victorino hit leadoff against lefthanders where his OBP is actually very good (.386) allowing his speed to play in his favor makes some sense.

[seabeachfred]

Victorino's a little light in the OBP department for my taste. He did alright last year but his track record suggests a mild regression next year.

It's a matter of difference in strategy I suppose, but job 1 in my mind for a leadoff hitter is to get his butt on base and Victorino's only OK at that.

i could see him taking the leadoff against lefthanders though. Having Nava bat leadoff against righthanders for the .411 OBP v right, and Victorino hit leadoff against lefthanders where his OBP is actually very good (.386) allowing his speed to play in his favor makes some sense.

I hate to say it but the leadoff spot in our lineup is going to be a problem for us all season unless someone takes the bull by the horns and cements himself in that spot. I don't like the idea of alternating leadoff hitters depending on who is pitching for the opposition. Continuity at leadoff is what we should strive for and if Bradley can't do it offensively for us Sizemore can because he has done it and done it well before.

[Thunder]

What are your guys' thoughts on XB leading off? Based on how he hit last postseason, it seems like he may emerge at some point during the year as a good candidate.

[Dojji]

If Bogaerts does what I think he'll do next year we'll want him in the lower middle of the order.

[seabeachfred]

Bogaerts is a middle of the order type hitter, starting most likely at six or so and then within a year or two moving to fifth or fourth and maybe some day the third spot. He projects to be the type of hitter who can hit for both average and power and to put him at leadoff I don't think the Red Sox would get the best out of him. Since we don't have a prototype leadoff hitter anymore, the idea is no more strange than some of the other ones I've heard or some of the suggestions I've made myself.

Though it might be a tough assignment I would throw Bradley to the wolves and let him leadoff and when he sits we put Sizemore there since he has led off before. We may be underestimating Jackie's ability as a hitter. Why not take a chance on him for a couple of weeks and see how it goes. He can't be any worse than that crybaby we gave $143 million to a couple of years back who sucked big time for us in that spot and did his best work as a moaner, complainer and total underachiever.

[reYoukilis]

I would love to see JBJ as our future leadoff hitter. However right now I see him filling greatly as the 9th batter because if gets on you got a man on with the leadoff hitter coming up.

[Dojji]

I don't want to put a high level of pressure on a kid who's still learning how to get it done at the big league level. let JBJ ease in the same way we eased in a lot of guys before him. We don't need to throw players to the wolves in this town. I'm sure that's why Drew is even still on the radar despite the obvious presence of Bogaerts.

That said, if JBJ proves with his play that he's good for more responsibility, by all means give it to him, same with Bogaerts and Middlebrooks and same with a lot of the other rookies we have worked and are working into the team. Start him off gently and let him play his way into any role he proves he can handle -- that's how it's done.

[East Bay Evans]

My 2014 MLB season predictions/projections:

Division Outlook:

American League East:

1) X - Boston Red Sox
2) Y - New York Yankees
3) Tampa Bay Rays
4) Toronto Blue Jays
5) Baltimore Orioles

American League Central:

1) X - Detroit Tigers
2) Cleveland Indians
3) Kansas City Royals
4) Chicago White Sox
5) Minnesota Twins

American League West:

1) X - Oakland Athletics
2) Y - Anaheim Angels
3) Texas Rangers
4) Seattle Mariners
5) Houston Astros

National League East:

1) X - Atlanta Braves
2) Washington Nationals
3) New York Mets
4) Philadelphia Phillies
5) Miami Marlins

National League Central:

1) X - Pittsburgh Pirates
2) Y - St. Louis Cardinals
3) Cincinnati Reds
4) Milwaukee Brewers
5) Chicago Cubs


National League West:

1) X - Los Angeles Dodgers
2) Y - San Francisco Giants
3) Arizona Diamondbacks
4) Colorado Rockies
5) San Diego Padres

PLAYOFFS:

AL Wild-Card Game:

[ANA vs NYY] Winner: Anaheim Angels

American League Division Series:

[OAK vs ANA] Winner: Oakland Athletics (3-2 series)

Winner: Detroit Tigers (3-2 series)
[B]
American League Championship Series:

[OAK vs DET] Winner: Oakland Athletics (4-1 series)

NL Wild-Card Game:

[STL vs SF] Winner: St. Louis Cardinals

National League Division Series:

[LAD vs STL] Winner: St. Louis Cardinals (3-2 series)

[ATL vs PIT] Winner: Atlanta Braves (3-1 series)

National League Championship Series:

[STL vs ATL] Winner: Atlanta Braves (4-0 series)

World Series:

[OAK vs ATL] Winner: Atlanta Braves (4-2 series)

Rationale: Speculation, ZiPS and Steamer projections and some dice rolling.

[Thunder]

I'm itching to change my initial predictions, but I'll let them be for now. The WC spots in the AL will be tough this year. KC and Cleveland are going after the Tigers, while the Rangers and Angels try to take down the A's. And we don't know who will rise out of the East. Initially, it seems like a 4 team race for the first half, dropping to 3 by the dog days.

[SoxSport]

Right now, I would pick the Nationals over the Braves. Could be their year. Braves have pitching issues, and a lot of hitters who don't get on base--except for Freeman. The Cards and the Pirates should fight it out in their division. The Dodgers are easy favorites with their huge TV contract and good FO--better than the Angels, who haven't invested wisely and are always short of pitching. Oakland does it with smoke and mirrors--they are lucky the Angels FO sucks. Beane just collects role players who get on base--plus a bunch of no name pitchers in a big park. Life is simple. Tigers again in their division.

The toughest division lately has been the AL east. Toronto will bounce back some. The Os and the Rays will be right there. The Os have been desperate to improve their pitching, but they are still short a closer. Getting rid of Johnson is almost as bad as the Yankees letting Cano go.
The Yankees, the media's team, are once again overrated--weak infield and uncertain pitching. The Red Sox are the defending champs, and are the team to beat. I figure SS will be improved, and CF will work out. Not sold on Sizemore yet. Pitching looks better--much better--than at this point last year. And it's always about pitching in this division. Their strong suit. This is a very good team, with excellent coaching.

[sk7326]

Nats are a very strong bounceback candidate. Their lineup SUCKED inexplicably all season in a way that sure feels non-recurring. Getting a quality #2/#3 starter for basically free helps too. Braves still have better position players - although Jason Heyward staying healthy would be nice just so he can have a full season to flash his MVP-ness.

Cardinals are the best team in the NL, and perhaps more. The strong lineup combined with a Tampa Bay-level bumper crop of pitching - they shut down a 15 game winner last season and their 7th inning reliever looks to have way way filthier stuff than the late season callup who started 2 World Series games for them - means an embarassment of riches. Pirates have a ton of prospect help coming too - especially if Jamison Taillon is ready for the show midseason.

Dodgers are the best in the West - especially since Tim Lincecum is a #5 starter being paid like a #2.

As far as the A's goes - Beane is the best GM in the game. He beat the market to OBP, and then when the price of OBP got too expensive, he beat the market to the evaluation of defense. Last year's division winners were 6th in OBP, the 2012 division winners were near the bottom. Beane saw the value in getting a near zero in OBP in Josh Reddick, and lean on his power and ability to field the hell out of his position to create value in that park. Had themselves an interesting offseason, adding Kazmir for a good price and getting Jim Johnson for a guy they gave up on. I like the Rangers more in the division - but the A's are gonna be right there.

Detroit in a walk in the central, although Cleveland is going to remain pretty good - good young players, an elite manager and a pitching coach who seems to perhaps be a true team asset.

As far as the East goes - last year I thought it was a 5 team race, and still do. Red Sox had the best combination of performance and injury luck and ta-da. But the Orioles got better - and they were a better team last season than the 2012 outfit without the phenomenal luck in close games. I liked the Johnson trade. He was going to be a big arbitration payment and Baltimore (correctly) decided their money was better spent on something other than a closer and so decided to save money there with a guy (Balfour) who is not going to be appreciably different. All four LCS participants last season had closers they discovered during the season - Tampa Bay picks through other team's trash for them - no point going to the mat for one. The Yankees got a little better, though their offseason would have made more sense if they actually kept the one superstar. Red Sox are gonna be good - although if you bet Sox v the Field, I'd take the field. Tampa objectively is the favorite in the division, but not by any real margin that matters. I like our chances this season as much as you can.

[East Bay Evans]

I liked the Johnson trade. He was going to be a big arbitration payment and Baltimore (correctly) decided their money was better spent on something other than a closer and so decided to save money there with a guy (Balfour) who is not going to be appreciably different.

Balfour was signed by the Rays.

[Behindenemylines]

With winter hanging on its hard to believe that the start of the season is a week away. I think the Sox will compete in the east with the Rays and $panks. Still see the Tigers in the central even with the injury to Iggy (Makes the trade a little better for the Sox). I see the Rangers coming out of the west (A's starting staff has injury problems). The National League division winners: Nationals, Cards and Dodgers.

[SoxSport]

A word about Tito in Cleveland. I think he's doing well there because he has a team that hasn't won and wants to. He is popular with the players and lets them play. His problem in Boston, I think, is he had guys who won and stopped wanting to win. When that happened, he had no leverage.Maybe he stopped trying to win, too. I always thought the team went downhill after '07. After James et al left the FO and Tito lost his bench coach-Brad Mills. In '13, James comes back to the FO, and what do you know, another championship. Not that others weren't involved as well. I hope the current championship team doesn't stop trying to win.

[seabeachfred]

A word about Tito in Cleveland. I think he's doing well there because he has a team that hasn't won and wants to. He is popular with the players and lets them play. His problem in Boston, I think, is he had guys who won and stopped wanting to win. When that happened, he had no leverage.Maybe he stopped trying to win, too. I always thought the team went downhill after '07. After James et al left the FO and Tito lost his bench coach-Brad Mills. In '13, James comes back to the FO, and what do you know, another championship. Not that others weren't involved as well. I hope the current championship team doesn't stop trying to win.

I was always a critic of Francona as a field manager and still believed he was very average at best in that capacity. However, is handling players, building their confidence, taking the pressure off them, dealing with the press, taking a bullet for some of the characters he dealt with (Manny anyone?), he was as good as they come. Events started smoldering after 2007 that helped grease Tito's skids in Boston. In 2008 problems with Manny Ramirez really infected the team and the front office was slow to act to deal with this human virus. A year or so later Lucchino started meddling in baseball operations again as he had done in 2005 while owner John Henry did nothing about it. By 2010 Henry was criticizing Tito's managerial skills while Werner was complaining about declining TV ratings and joining the meddling Lucchino in desiring "sexy" players, whatever the hell that meant. Hence millions spent on Gonzales and Crawford, very bad fits for Boston. The Red Sox had lost their way and it culminated in the collapse of 2011 and the train wreck season of 2012.

Last year the Red Sox got a second chance and seized it. Better later than never Henry got Lucchino back in his office worrying about the Red Sox brand, fund raising and promotions and let Cherington and Farrell run things. Good signing by Ben, a commitment to win and we got something none of us believed was possible.....A World Series Title. I think all people connected with the Red Sox from Henry on down to the players learned from that said experiences from 2008-2012. I think this time we will see no more of that sad spectacle again.

[Dojji]

I doubt it. It's human nature to forget lessons we never wanted to learn in the first place, We'll see Lucky push his tendrils back into baseball ops at some point

[jacksonianmarch]

This is not very accurate. He "stopped trying to win?" That's revisionism at its finest. He was given a bunch of guys who played for themselves and he got a bunch of individuals instead of a team. That being said, he started September of 2011 in first place and on his way to the playoffs. A bad month does not a career define.

[a700hitter]

This is not very accurate. He "stopped trying to win?" That's revisionism at its finest. He was given a bunch of guys who played for themselves and he got a bunch of individuals instead of a team. That being said, he started September of 2011 in first place and on his way to the playoffs. A bad month does not a career define.

He was clueless on how to stop the bleeding. If anything, he contributed to the debacle. I love Tito, but he was a big part of the problem that season. He was never a goodgame tactician, but in 2011 he lost the clubhouse too.

[SoxSport]

Sizemore looked like an all-star today, hitting a HR, and circling the bases like a rookie. He is sure to start the season in CF, unless he has a setback in the next few days. He is gaining confidence--you can see it.

[SoxSport]

I was always a critic of Francona as a field manager and still believed he was very average at best in that capacity. However, is handling players, building their confidence, taking the pressure off them, dealing with the press, taking a bullet for some of the characters he dealt with (Manny anyone?), he was as good as they come. Events started smoldering after 2007 that helped grease Tito's skids in Boston. In 2008 problems with Manny Ramirez really infected the team and the front office was slow to act to deal with this human virus. A year or so later Lucchino started meddling in baseball operations again as he had done in 2005 while owner John Henry did nothing about it. By 2010 Henry was criticizing Tito's managerial skills while Werner was complaining about declining TV ratings and joining the meddling Lucchino in desiring "sexy" players, whatever the hell that meant. Hence millions spent on Gonzales and Crawford, very bad fits for Boston. The Red Sox had lost their way and it culminated in the collapse of 2011 and the train wreck season of 2012.

Last year the Red Sox got a second chance and seized it. Better later than never Henry got Lucchino back in his office worrying about the Red Sox brand, fund raising and promotions and let Cherington and Farrell run things. Good signing by Ben, a commitment to win and we got something none of us believed was possible.....A World Series Title. I think all people connected with the Red Sox from Henry on down to the players learned from that said experiences from 2008-2012. I think this time we will see no more of that sad spectacle again.

Looks pretty accurate. Never believed Tito was much of a field manager. Winning MOY over Farrell was a joke. On the FO, it's hard to get a perspective here, since the media rarely talks about the machinations upstairs in an organization. I do think James' departure in '07 plus the furloughing of several saber consultants ("cost cutting" was the explanation--though they pay those folks peanuts compared to everybody else) hurt them. They had no one to tell Epstein he's nuts for signing/trading for those $20 million dollar guys. Especially Crawford. And we now know AdGon has lost some of his power stroke. You know what the star struck media did--they declared the Red Sox World Series winners before the start of the season.

The Dodgers are lucky they survived that trade with the Red Sox. It hasn't helped them a bit, except maybe for Mexican attendance. But they have so much Fox TV dough they can burn a pile of it every game. What helped them in the stretch last year was Hanley, Greinke and Puig. They were the difference, along with Kershaw. That kid Ryu is good, too. They are a team to watch--and not because of Crawford or AdGon.

[SoxSport]

With winter hanging on its hard to believe that the start of the season is a week away. I think the Sox will compete in the east with the Rays and $panks. Still see the Tigers in the central even with the injury to Iggy (Makes the trade a little better for the Sox). I see the Rangers coming out of the west (A's starting staff has injury problems). The National League division winners: Nationals, Cards and Dodgers.

I wouldn't overestimate the Yankees--like much of the media always does. Too many surprises have to happen with their pitching to make them contenders. And not with that infield. It boils down to pitching. The Rays have it. The Red Sox should have it. The Rangers are injury-bitten. In trouble. The Dodgers could walk away with it if Ryu and Greinke come through. The Nats will have to have a strong year from Strasburg. The Cards will always be tough with their young players--especially pitching. Plus the Pirates--very good organization. In the AL, KC might be a dark horse. The Tigers are never quite there. Miggy doesn't have much lineup protection this year. Plus no Fister. Verlander has to be OK.

[seabeachfred]

I doubt it. It's human nature to forget lessons we never wanted to learn in the first place, We'll see Lucky push his tendrils back into baseball ops at some point

Well you could be right Dojii, but if he does Henry must step in a put a stop to it right away this time. He let it go on for three to four years last time and I'm convinced Lucchino's meddling in baseball ops played a key role in the decline of our team. Lock him in his office if you have to but keep that meddling son of a bitch out of baseball operations at all costs.

[Dojji]

Oh I agree 100%

[rjortiz]

What is the evidence that Lucchino was behind the bad personnel decisions that led to 2012? I read the SI article from Francona's perspective, but it appeared to be a mandate from ownership. I assume Lucchino handles the business decisions of the Red Sox, and may have pushed Epstein to make moves that would increase ratings for the Red Sox, but ultimately wasn't Epstein the person in charge of making those acquisitions?

Are some of you saying that Lucchino acted unilaterally and acquired these players over Epstein's objection? I'm not disagreeing with any of you. I really don't know the whole story. However, I am skeptical that it was entirely Lucchino's fault.

[rjortiz]

Looks pretty accurate. Never believed Tito was much of a field manager. Winning MOY over Farrell was a joke. On the FO, it's hard to get a perspective here, since the media rarely talks about the machinations upstairs in an organization. I do think James' departure in '07 plus the furloughing of several saber consultants ("cost cutting" was the explanation--though they pay those folks peanuts compared to everybody else) hurt them. They had no one to tell Epstein he's nuts for signing/trading for those $20 million dollar guys. Especially Crawford. And we now know AdGon has lost some of his power stroke. You know what the star struck media did--they declared the Red Sox World Series winners before the start of the season.

The Dodgers are lucky they survived that trade with the Red Sox. It hasn't helped them a bit, except maybe for Mexican attendance. But they have so much Fox TV dough they can burn a pile of it every game. What helped them in the stretch last year was Hanley, Greinke and Puig. They were the difference, along with Kershaw. That kid Ryu is good, too. They are a team to watch--and not because of Crawford or AdGon.

MOY is such a pointless award. There isn't any evidence to suggest that managers make a dramatic impact on the performance of their teams. They might as well call the award, "Manager of the Team That Most Exceeded Preseason Projection." The Indians were projected to be below .500, and made the playoffs, so I can't really argue with awarding Francona.

As for the Dodgers trade, I agree that the Dodgers massively overvalued Gonzalez, Crawford, and Beckett. However, their contracts aren't as burdensome on the Dodgers, as they are for the 29 other teams in MLB. They were good regulars for the Dodgers last year, as both had WAR totals of near three. If they continue to provide that level of production, they aren't that overpaid. I wouldn't call it a win for the Dodgers, but it isn't as big a disaster as it appeared in 2012.

[rjortiz]

Getting rid of Johnson is almost as bad as the Yankees letting Cano go.


Are you serious?

[seabeachfred]

What is the evidence that Lucchino was behind the bad personnel decisions that led to 2012? I read the SI article from Francona's perspective, but it appeared to be a mandate from ownership. I assume Lucchino handles the business decisions of the Red Sox, and may have pushed Epstein to make moves that would increase ratings for the Red Sox, but ultimately wasn't Epstein the person in charge of making those acquisitions?

Are some of you saying that Lucchino acted unilaterally and acquired these players over Epstein's objection? I'm not disagreeing with any of you. I really don't know the whole story. However, I am skeptical that it was entirely Lucchino's fault.

Good question RJ and if you had read the whole book you would know what we do. The fact is Lucchino started meddling during the 2008 season when the Manny Ramirez crisis began, and he kept getting more involved the next few seasons until Epstein had had enough again and decided to go to Chicago. Lucchino wanted to hold onto Manny until it became clear that there was no other recourse while Epstein wanted to dump him as soon as possible and even suspend him when he refused to get on that plane leaving for Seattle after the Angels series. Then there was the TV rating slide show when Larry and Werner ganged up on Epstein's desire to build from within and demanded "sexy" players to bring up TV ratings and to give Lucchino more to have in the way of promotions. John Henry, who had clearly delineated the powers of Epstein in baseball operations in early 2006 and Lucchino in promotions and fund raising, but like a virus that is not wiped out he wormed his way into baseball operations starting in 2008 and it was his call to hire Bobby Valentine as manager even though new GM Ben Cherington didn't want him. As a rookie GM he got steamrolled by the nosy and meddling and dictatorial asshole Lucchino.

After 2012 train wreck Henry finally awakened from his stupor and gave Ben and new manager John Farrell the keys the diamond. This time Henry must stay awake and keep Lucchino as far away from baseball operations as he can manage.

[rjortiz]

Good question RJ and if you had read the whole book you would know what we do. The fact is Lucchino started meddling during the 2008 season when the Manny Ramirez crisis began, and he kept getting more involved the next few seasons until Epstein had had enough again and decided to go to Chicago. Lucchino wanted to hold onto Manny until it became clear that there was no other recourse while Epstein wanted to dump him as soon as possible and even suspend him when he refused to get on that plane leaving for Seattle after the Angels series. Then there was the TV rating slide show when Larry and Werner ganged up on Epstein's desire to build from within and demanded "sexy" players to bring up TV ratings and to give Lucchino more to have in the way of promotions. John Henry, who had clearly delineated the powers of Epstein in baseball operations in early 2006 and Lucchino in promotions and fund raising, but like a virus that is not wiped out he wormed his way into baseball operations starting in 2008 and it was his call to hire Bobby Valentine as manager even though new GM Ben Cherington didn't want him. As a rookie GM he got steamrolled by the nosy and meddling and dictatorial asshole Lucchino.

After 2012 train wreck Henry finally awakened from his stupor and gave Ben and new manager John Farrell the keys the diamond. This time Henry must stay awake and keep Lucchino as far away from baseball operations as he can manage.

This is what I assumed, and it still doesn't make Epstein any less responsible for making the Crawford, Gonzalez, and Beckett decisions. Did they ignore his input and make those decisions without him? I think Theo tried to follow the mandate he was given, and just colossally fucked up the execution.

[User Name?]

MOY is such a pointless award. There isn't any evidence to suggest that managers make a dramatic impact on the performance of their teams. They might as well call the award, "Manager of the Team That Most Exceeded Preseason Projection." The Indians were projected to be below .500, and made the playoffs, so I can't really argue with awarding Francona.

As for the Dodgers trade, I agree that the Dodgers massively overvalued Gonzalez, Crawford, and Beckett. However, their contracts aren't as burdensome on the Dodgers, as they are for the 29 other teams in MLB. They were good regulars for the Dodgers last year, as both had WAR totals of near three. If they continue to provide that level of production, they aren't that overpaid. I wouldn't call it a win for the Dodgers, but it isn't as big a disaster as it appeared in 2012.

You mean Gonzales was a good regular, because Crawford was not very good, and Beckett was injured AND terrible.

[User Name?]

This is what I assumed, and it still doesn't make Epstein any less responsible for making the Crawford, Gonzalez, and Beckett decisions. Did they ignore his input and make those decisions without him? I think Theo tried to follow the mandate he was given, and just colossally fucked up the execution.

I disagree, and very much so. Lucchino is on the record as saying Gonzalez was Theo's baby, but the Crawford and Lackey contracts as well as the Beckett extension were all of his mandates. It'd be very hard to find now but his mea culpa was an issue of much discussion here at TalkSox before you joined.

[rjortiz]

You mean Gonzales was a good regular, because Crawford was not very good, and Beckett was injured AND terrible.

Should have mentioned that I meant just Crawford and Gonzalez. Crawford was a solid regular with a 2.9 WAR last year, although a lot of that was because of his defense and baserunning. It would be interesting to see if that has returned.

[Jacoby_Ellsbury]

MOY is such a pointless award. There isn't any evidence to suggest that managers make a dramatic impact on the performance of their teams. They might as well call the award, "Manager of the Team That Most Exceeded Preseason Projection." The Indians were projected to be below .500, and made the playoffs, so I can't really argue with awarding Francona.
I've said this before but any award that people have to vote on is bullshit. If it's not apparent and indisputable, like a championship or triple crown, then it shouldn't be given out.

This is just off the top of my head but the best may to measure a manager might be whether his teams outperform (or underperform) their pyth on a consistent basis.

[rjortiz]

I disagree, and very much so. Lucchino is on the record as saying Gonzalez was Theo's baby, but the Crawford and Lackey contracts as well as the Beckett extension were all of his mandates. It'd be very hard to find now but his mea culpa was an issue of much discussion here at TalkSox before you joined.

I was not aware of that. Seabeachfred mentioned a mandate, but did not say whose decision it was.

[rjortiz]

This is just off the top of my head but the best may to measure a manager might be whether his teams outperform (or underperform) their pyth on a consistent basis.

That could suggest good bullpen management, but I think that a skewed pythag record is based on luck. The Orioles winning a huge majority of their one run games comes to mind.

[SoxSport]

Are you serious?

ha. I had to look at that post to figure out who Johnson was. That was a bit of overstatement--even though it backfired when the Os didn't sign Balfour. Now they don't really have a reliable closer. Late inning relief is critical the way it's used in baseball these days. The starter almost never pitches the 8th or 9th inning. In some cases, you have to wonder why not. But that's the paradigm.

The biggest mistake, of course, was the Yankees' letting their best player, Cano, go--and then going on a half billion dollar spending spree as if to make up for it. They blew it, and then quickly realized they blew it--so they spent wildly.

[User Name?]

Because there is a mountain of statistical, empirical, and common sense related data that shows that pitchers tend to lose effectiveness quickly after reaching the 100-pitch plateau. And what's the best way to deal with a fatigued pitcher? A replacement pitcher. It's not rocket science.

[rjortiz]

ha. I had to look at that post to figure out who Johnson was. That was a bit of overstatement--even though it backfired when the Os didn't sign Balfour. Now they don't really have a reliable closer. Late inning relief is critical the way it's used in baseball these days. The starter almost never pitches the 8th or 9th inning. In some cases, you have to wonder why not. But that's the paradigm.

The biggest mistake, of course, was the Yankees' letting their best player, Cano, go--and then going on a half billion dollar spending spree as if to make up for it. They blew it, and then quickly realized they blew it--so they spent wildly.

Huge overstatement. Cano is a six win 2B, whereas Johnson hasn't exceeded 1.5 WAR.


Because there is a mountain of statistical, empirical, and common sense related data that shows that pitchers tend to lose effectiveness quickly after reaching the 100-pitch plateau. And what's the best way to deal with a fatigued pitcher? A replacement pitcher. It's not rocket science.

Hard to shake an antiquated mindset. Idiots like Rob Dibble, Tom Seaver, and Nolan Ryan seem to forget their fellow pitchers who flamed out at early ages from high pitch counts.

[User Name?]

I'd exclude Ryan from the group. For all the narrative about his "no pitch counts" philosophy, he's an advocate of incremental pitch counts for young pitchers, and to take out pitchers based on signs of inefectiveness. Otherwise your point is correct.

[SoxSport]

The pitching plateau has always been 120. Gradually, it has diminished down to 100, which has put tremendous pressure on the BP and caused teams to add another RP. Any well conditioned pitcher can throw 120 pitches in a quality start. And if you listened to the experts, like Halladay, it depends more on the pattern of the game--not on the number of pitches--as to how fatigued a pitcher gets.

This whole business of pitch counts is an art--not a science. And there is a lot of second guessing going on right now with all the Tommy John injuries. Good luck if you can find any experimental evidence on correlating pitch counts with injuries.

As for the Orioles, the impact on their pitching without a reliable closer will be substantial in a tight AL East. Losing a guy with 40 saves is tough to replace. The Red Sox were very lucky last year to have discovered Uehara's mastery. Without him in the stretch, things might have been different. I wouldn't take those WAR's too literally.

[mvp 78]

Good luck? All you have to do is google "pitch count injury correlation" and a bunch of studies pop up.

[Bellhorn04]

The pitching plateau has always been 120. Gradually, it has diminished down to 100, which has put tremendous pressure on the BP and caused teams to add another RP.

Why do you insist on these uninformed comments? 100 is not the magic number. For most good starters it's still more like 110, maybe 115. Look at Lester's game logs for 2013.

In 33 starts he had:

19 pitch counts of 105 or more.
15 pitch counts of 110 or more.
11 pitch counts of 115 or more.
3 pitch counts of 120 or more.

[Dojji]

120 is seen as the red line -- cross it at your own peril. Anything short of that is OK, but if you're going into an inning with 108 pitches, you'll probably see a reliever warming up, and if the guy hasn't been efficient to that point you might just take him out then.

Old timers like to dismiss the pitch limts, but guys like Gil Meche would rather they stuck to the book. Trey Hillman ruined that poor man's career with a 132 pitch outing just because he hadn't let in a run yet. A prejudice is a poor excuse for destroying a pitcher.

[User Name?]

Why do you insist on these uninformed comments? 100 is not the magic number. For most good starters it's still more like 110, maybe 115. Look at Lester's game logs for 2013.

In 33 starts he had:

19 pitch counts of 105 or more.
15 pitch counts of 110 or more.
11 pitch counts of 115 or more.
3 pitch counts of 120 or more.

Because making stuff up and not listening to what anybody says is his schtick. The hilarious thing is that he keeps quoting Nolan Ryan's no-pitch count "mantra", even though the Rangers handle their SP and BP just like anybody else.

[Palodios]

SoxSport


SoxSport likes to criticize pitch counts.


That's it. Quick chart, huh?

[Bellhorn04]

120 is seen as the red line -- cross it at your own peril. Anything short of that is OK, but if you're going into an inning with 108 pitches, you'll probably see a reliever warming up, and if the guy hasn't been efficient to that point you might just take him out then.

Old timers like to dismiss the pitch limts, but guys like Gil Meche would rather they stuck to the book. Trey Hillman ruined that poor man's career with a 132 pitch outing just because he hadn't let in a run yet. A prejudice is a poor excuse for destroying a pitcher.

I always go back to the 1980 Oakland A's as the ultimate example of pitcher abuse. Billy Martin had a nice young pitching staff that year and he pitched them to death. Have a look sometime - the innings totals were incredible. All those pitchers were clearly ruined by what Martin did to them.

[mvp 78]

SoxSport


SoxSport likes to criticize pitch counts.


That's it. Quick chart, huh?


I like this. Every poster over 5,000 posts needs a chart.

[Thunder]

I like this. Every poster over 5,000 posts needs a chart.

I completely agree. It can also be used as a guide for new users, and should tell them who it is worth arguing against and who will just embarrass them.

[mvp 78]

New users? Heh... Have you seen it around here?

[BSN07]

I like this. Every poster over 5,000 posts needs a chart.

That's actually a really good idea as long as people don't go overboard. Let's see how YOTN feels on it. I vote yes :D

[a700hitter]

That's actually a really good idea as long as people don't go overboard. Let's see how YOTN feels on it. I vote yes :DA700Hitter doesn't fit into boxes.

[SoxSport]

120 is seen as the red line -- cross it at your own peril. Anything short of that is OK, but if you're going into an inning with 108 pitches, you'll probably see a reliever warming up, and if the guy hasn't been efficient to that point you might just take him out then.

Old timers like to dismiss the pitch limts, but guys like Gil Meche would rather they stuck to the book. Trey Hillman ruined that poor man's career with a 132 pitch outing just because he hadn't let in a run yet. A prejudice is a poor excuse for destroying a pitcher.

It should be evident when a pitcher loses his stuff. And, as you say, the red line is about 120 pitches. Too bad Grady Little paid no attention to that when he kept in Pedro in that Yankee stadium game. Cost him his job.

I remember when Schilling pitched for Philly, and Tito was manager. Tito kept him in for 140 or so pitches many games--his ERA in the 8th and 9th innings was about 5. Claimed he had a weak bullpen. Next year Schilling had to have a shoulder operation. There's obviously a limit, but 100 pitches taxes the bullpen and leads to unforced losses. The starters are better pitchers than their replacements, except for maybe the closer.

[Behindenemylines]

It should be evident when a pitcher loses his stuff. And, as you say, the red line is about 120 pitches. Too bad Grady Little paid no attention to that when he kept in Pedro in that Yankee stadium game. Cost him his job.

I remember when Schilling pitched for Philly, and Tito was manager. Tito kept him in for 140 or so pitches many games--his ERA in the 8th and 9th innings was about 5. Claimed he had a weak bullpen. Next year Schilling had to have a shoulder operation. There's obviously a limit, but 100 pitches taxes the bullpen and leads to unforced losses. The starters are better pitchers than their replacements, except for maybe the closer.

It always seems that pitchers who have a start that they go beyond 120 pitches end up struggling in their next few starts. With the way bullpens are specialized most starters are only expected to go 6 or 7 innings and 100 pitches becomes the magic number when managers start watching pitchers effectiveness.

[a700hitter]

It looks like I over-rated the Red Sox. LOL!


I need to see more of the teams from the NL and othe AL divisions before making projections, but here is my projection for the ALE.

1. Yankees (and it will not be close if Jeter and Tex can put up representative numbers.)
2. Orioles (Tons of offense and although the starting pitching is mediocre, it is deep plus they have some live young guns)
3. Rays (Tons of live arms -- enough to stock the rotation and the pen. If they get any offense, they will catch the O's0
4. Red Sox -- it's very difficult to repeat and even harder to stay away from major injuries 2 years in a row.
5. Blue Jays -- They have done nothing to inject life into their team.

[a700hitter]

You're unbelievable sometimes haha.

I don't think any of these teams have remotely as much depth as the Red Sox. They have a solid rotation, solid lineup, great defense, great bullpen, great bench, great minor league depth, and a great farm system. No players are coming off major surgery, besides Pedroia.

You can't say that about any of the other teams in the ALE. As long as they stay hungry and healthy, it wouldn't be out of the question to see them make another deep run this year.

How would you rate those aspects of the team as the season comes to a close. I am not posting this as a gotcha, because no one disagreed with you at the time. No one could have foreseen this disaster.