Marahiro Tanaka And Sox Starting Rotation.

[marklmw]

Most of the talk about what to do or not do this off season centers around Napoli, Abreu, Ellsbury, Drew, Stanton, and Salty. I believe that at the end of the day most of the players from this years team will want to return as they seem to like playing together in Boston which is a nice position for management to work from. If the Sox cannot work out something reasonable for Ellsbury they will pick up a draft pick and JBJ will be given the opportunity.
I would like to talk about the starting rotation and one way that Boston can improve it. An international player that Boston is scouting is Marahiro Tanaka and signing him can really help the Sox for the next 5 or 6 years.

http://nesn.com/2013/09/report-red-sox-yankees-among-teams-to-scout-japanese-pitcher-masahiro-tanaka/

Of course I still like Abreu because of his ceiling and that he makes our club younger and the same can be said of Tanaka. It is my feeling that signing Tanaka is far more important than trading for Stanton, or signing Abreu. By signing Tanaka we have insurance and can then turn around and deal Dempster. Buch, Tanaka, Lester ... would be any awesome post season rotation would it not?

[SoxFanForsyth]

The Sox already have 6 starters as is, with a ton of talent waiting in the minors (Ranaudo, Barnes, Owens, Ball, Webster, Workman).

I just don't think it would be smart to invest in this guy, he doesn't fill a need.

[mvp 78]

It's smart if you think his ceiling is a #1. If he's just a middle of the rotation guy, look elsewhere. There's no harm in doing due diligence.

[marklmw]

The Sox already have 6 starters as is, with a ton of talent waiting in the minors (Ranaudo, Barnes, Owens, Ball, Webster, Workman).

I just don't think it would be smart to invest in this guy, he doesn't fill a need.

Not one of the players you mention are legit number 2's at this time. They think Ranaudo might be best suited as a late inning setup man. Owens shows the most promise but he is 2 years away. Buch is fragile, Dempster sucks ... are you kidding me .... not a need.

[Dojji]

Never turn up your nose at a chance to add pitching depth. If you think Tanaka can translate his skillset to the big leagues, sign him. If you have 6 or 7 big league starters ready to do and you still think Tanaka can translate his skillset to the big leagues, sign him anyway.

[jacksonianmarch]

I highly, highly, highly doubt any team other than the Yankees or the Dodgers have this kid come 2014. The Yankees have the need and can write off the posting fee without having to pay tax on it. The sox don't need this kid and he will likely cost them about $75-$100 mil when all is said and done

[SoxFanForsyth]

Not one of the players you mention are legit number 2's at this time. They think Ranaudo might be best suited as a late inning setup man. Owens shows the most promise but he is 2 years away. Buch is fragile, Dempster sucks ... are you kidding me .... not a need.

It's 100% not a need at the price that it will take to get him. No way.

You don't pay that much money for SP depth. The Sox, with Lester Buchholz Peavy Lackey Doubront Dempster Workman Ranaudo Barnes Owens. I mean. You're going to go spend more money on this??

Two things. Where the hell do you see people saying Ranaudo is a "late inning reliever"?!? That may be his floor. This is a ridiculous, ridiculous statement with zero backing.

Here is a quote from a scout from mid-season:
“When I saw him this spring, he looked great in the spring — up to 95, great downhill plane, very good curveball and an improving changeup with a little bit of sink. He’s going to have to maintain his delivery and that changeup still needs a little bit of work, but if he can stay healthy, I think he has the profile of definitely being a No. 3 guy, maybe a No. 2 if everything goes right. With the way he’s throwing now, the angle is huge. The breaking ball is swing and miss. I was a little surprised how tight his spin was. It really has progressed since when I had seen him in high school. Some guys don’t make that progression. It was exciting to see. As long as he stays healthy, he should definitely be a main guy in Boston’s rotation at some point.”

Second. You say Owens is 2 years away? Really? Because where was Brandon Workman this time last year? Oh, just completing his 5th start in Portland? Where is Owens right now? Oh, just completing his 6th start in Portland? And where did Workman end up? Ah, yes, starting for the Red Sox for a few games.

You're just spewing BS because I didn't agree with signing this guy.

The Red Sox have the 2nd best SP rotation in the American League with tons of talent coming up. Barnes had a very solid year (3.41 FIP in AA, 1.70 FIP in AAA). He will be ready next year along with Ranaudo.

Spending a ton of money on this guy makes zero sense.

[Dojji]

Keep overrating those prospects, SFF. At least you're consistent.

A prospect isn't a productive regular until the moment he is. Projections are all fun and nice and optimistic and crap, but that's the reality of the prospect game. I used to be as head in the clouds as you, then Lars Anderson happened. I wait for evidence now.

With pitching in particular, you can literally never have enough redundancy. If you can expand your practical depth in the starting rotation you always do it because entropy will always find a way to screw you over if you don't. We've seen it happen too many times for me to let you get away with ignoring the lessons of history now.

[mvp 78]

Keep overrating those prospects, SFF. At least you're consistent.


C'mon now... Kason Gabbard.

[Dojji]

Gabbard turned out nicely for us in the limited chances he got to really put himself on display in the majors. he definitely showed that he had the talent to be productive before the trade and the injury. After the injury his command was shot to hell, which is a real pity.

He didn't go on to have an ace type career, but he came up to help us bigtime at a time which (due to Schill's injury and Lester's cancer rehab) we really needed him, so if you'll forgive me, or even if you won't, I'm going to call my pick of Gabbard a solid base hit.

And mind, I only started pulling for Gabbard after his big league debut when I thought he showed some mental toughness and some good stuff with that changeup of his.

[sk7326]

Keep overrating those prospects, SFF. At least you're consistent.

A prospect isn't a productive regular until the moment he is. Projections are all fun and nice and optimistic and crap, but that's the reality of the prospect game. I used to be as head in the clouds as you, then Lars Anderson happened. I wait for evidence now.

With pitching in particular, you can literally never have enough redundancy. If you can expand your practical depth in the starting rotation you always do it because entropy will always find a way to screw you over if you don't. We've seen it happen too many times for me to let you get away with ignoring the lessons of history now.

Evidence is a shaky thing on prospects. Lars Anderson's case is very much an exception - one of the weirdest of them all, usually guys who are performing at levels they are young for are very high probability guys. In the long run, betting on guys like that works. (just like, as Tampa would attest, despite the volatility of prospects, drafting very high still works quite well)

The Japanese guy is worth signing if he is better than your alternatives in a meaningful way. The history if Nippon league starters would lead you to believe that this is in fact not true - Darvish's style is much more "American" than the guys they have generally produced. The more typical examples have been the Nomos or Matsuzakas, not pitching to contact, wasting a lot of time etc.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Keep overrating those prospects, SFF. At least you're consistent.

A prospect isn't a productive regular until the moment he is. Projections are all fun and nice and optimistic and crap, but that's the reality of the prospect game. I used to be as head in the clouds as you, then Lars Anderson happened. I wait for evidence now.

With pitching in particular, you can literally never have enough redundancy. If you can expand your practical depth in the starting rotation you always do it because entropy will always find a way to screw you over if you don't. We've seen it happen too many times for me to let you get away with ignoring the lessons of history now.

I'm sure as hell glad that you're not the GM because no prospect would ever make it to the MLB if you were.

Every prospect has to swallow lumps and adjust to the league, and they all struggle.

Mike Trout hit .220/.281/.390 in 2011.
ARod hit .224/.257/.352 in 94/95, his first two years getting called up.
Felix Hernandez had a 4.52 ERA in his first full season in the majors.

Point is, almost every prospect has growing pains. You just have to put up with them. No matter how long they stay in AAA, they're going to face growing pains when they face the elite level of pitching/hitting in the MLB.

You're up there with a700 on the extremity of putting zero reliance on prospects.

The best way to build sustained success is to generate talent internally, and pay for compliments via free agency.

[Dojji]

I'm sure as hell glad that you're not the GM because no prospect would ever make it to the MLB if you were.

Sure they would, they'd just have to make the most of the chances they got when they got them, rather than be handed everything on a silver platter like we're some kind of small market team.

if these prospects are really as good as you want to say they are they will find a way to rise to the top against professional level competition.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Sure they would, they'd just have to make the most of the chances they got when they got them, rather than be handed everything on a silver platter like we're some kind of small market team.

if these prospects are really as good as you want to say they are they will find a way to rise to the top against professional level competition.

Great.

Pedroia would still be in AAA. Nava would have never made it to the show. Buchholz would still be in AAA. Mike Trout would probably be in AA.

Luckily Middlebrooks got a knock in his SSS "tryout" or else he wouldn't be anywhere near this roster.

You have to give players enough of a sample of consistent playing time before you can make a judgement. That's why it's more than just numbers, it's approach, plate discipline, bat speed, etc. That's why you have scouts, not just computers looking at their numbers and making your decisions based on that.

[sk7326]

Sure they would, they'd just have to make the most of the chances they got when they got them, rather than be handed everything on a silver platter like we're some kind of small market team.

if these prospects are really as good as you want to say they are they will find a way to rise to the top against professional level competition.

I don't think anyone disagrees with this, but "scouting the stat line" is generally a bad way to operate.

[Dojji]

I don't think anyone disagrees with this, but "scouting the stat line" is generally a bad way to operate.

It's the best way for a fan to operate.

I expect the franchise to know when to push the gas pedal more than I do when it comes to prospects, but this franchise is going to stack depth around their prospects as they work them in, it's their standard MO even when it occasionally bites them a bit. The good prospects find a way to beat out their competition and the others don't matter.

[SoxSport]

I think what they do for next year will be determined by how effective they are in the playoffs. If they win it all, I wouldn't expect any big changes. They are smart if they keep the chemistry that clicked this year. One mistake GMs often make in all sports is to upset the winning chemistry the next year. Ainge of the Celtics did that not re-signing Posey after winning in '07. The guy was a critical 6th man off the bench who wasn't replaced. You have to look at look at your players, decide who is playing an important role, and keep them to retain your chemistry.

I think there will be changes in the rotation next year. Dempster will be replaced, maybe Doubront with a prospect or two waiting in the wings. Plus they have to decide on Bogaerts vs Drew, Bradley and retaining Salty for his hitting and determination.

[sk7326]

It's the best way for a fan to operate.

I expect the franchise to know when to push the gas pedal more than I do when it comes to prospects, but this franchise is going to stack depth around their prospects as they work them in, it's their standard MO even when it occasionally bites them a bit. The good prospects find a way to beat out their competition and the others don't matter.

But what does beating them out mean. It does not reflect in the stats necessarily - it could just be coaching and scouting outcomes. Bradley clearly has shown he can handle CF defensively and at the plate he knows what he is doing, though it has not translated into results fully. Any promotion (like a signing) is a bet - but a bet on a kid with a lot of natural growth remaining. The Lars Anderson sort of regression as a 23 year old is very rare.

[Dojji]

When I say beating, I mean beating. A manager is going to give every player on his roster time to play. If the rookie is showing he helps the team win more than the veteran, then the rookie will play. If the manager or GM is convinced that with proper time, the rookie will easily help the team win more than the veteran, the rookie will be worked in around the veteran and get chances to learn and improve until he proves he's ready to go. it's part of the organic learning and succession process that is a part of baseball for as long as there's been baseball.

In no way should a rookie ever be simply handed playing time with no competition unless you're 200% sure he's ready to go right now. All of our best players have had to earn their time the hard way -- through competition against other decent players. We've always had the redundancy to do something in the event of a meltdown. No one is just handed a job here.

Imagine if, back when we were still in love with Wily Mo Pena in the 06-07 offeseason, we'd just handed him right field and told him to go gettum. That would have exploded in our face rather spectacularly, would it not? This despite the fact that he'd been highly effective for us in 06, even filling in nicely starting regularly down the stretch as things fell apart and people got hurt.

My point is the same as it ever is here: Whether you love a prospect or you hate them you always have to be openminded enough that you give them a chance to prove you wrong, and always have a plan in mind for what to do if they manage it.

[SoxFanForsyth]

When I say beating, I mean beating. A manager is going to give every player on his roster time to play. If the rookie is showing he helps the team win more than the veteran, then the rookie will play. If the manager or GM is convinced that with proper time, the rookie will easily help the team win more than the veteran, the rookie will be worked in around the veteran and get chances to learn and improve until he proves he's ready to go. it's part of the organic learning and succession process that is a part of baseball for as long as there's been baseball.

In no way should a rookie ever be simply handed playing time with no competition unless you're 200% sure he's ready to go right now. All of our best players have had to earn their time the hard way -- through competition against other decent players. We've always had the redundancy to do something in the event of a meltdown. No one is just handed a job here.

Imagine if, back when we were still in love with Wily Mo Pena in the 06-07 offeseason, we'd just handed him right field and told him to go gettum. That would have exploded in our face rather spectacularly, would it not? This despite the fact that he'd been highly effective for us in 06, even filling in nicely starting regularly down the stretch as things fell apart and people got hurt.

My point is the same as it ever is here: Whether you love a prospect or you hate them you always have to be openminded enough that you give them a chance to prove you wrong, and always have a plan in mind for what to do if they manage it.

This is exactly my point. You go with Bradley in CF, give him 2 months playing every single day to see how he adjusts, and then make your assessment. If he doesn't work out right now, you send him back to AAA and you have Carp/Gomes - Victorino - Nava until he does.

[User Name?]

Dojji is terribly inconsistent. He's all about pushing the envelope with some of the no-name prospects he likes, but when a real one like JBJ comes along he's all about "not overrating prospects" and "not rushing them" or some other form of nonsense. Terrible.

[User Name?]

Evidence is a shaky thing on prospects. Lars Anderson's case is very much an exception - one of the weirdest of them all, usually guys who are performing at levels they are young for are very high probability guys. In the long run, betting on guys like that works. (just like, as Tampa would attest, despite the volatility of prospects, drafting very high still works quite well)

The Japanese guy is worth signing if he is better than your alternatives in a meaningful way. The history if Nippon league starters would lead you to believe that this is in fact not true - Darvish's style is much more "American" than the guys they have generally produced. The more typical examples have been the Nomos or Matsuzakas, not pitching to contact, wasting a lot of time etc.

Funny you mention Lars Anderson's case, since Dojji was on record on this site as being against the Sox making a run for Teixeira given his presence. He's terribly inconsistent on his evaluation on prospects depending on how much he likes/dislikes them regardless of ceiling or talent.

[sk7326]

Funny you mention Lars Anderson's case, since Dojji was on record on this site as being against the Sox making a run for Teixeira given his presence. He's terribly inconsistent on his evaluation on prospects depending on how much he likes/dislikes them regardless of ceiling or talent.

The thing to me with prospects is - age + level to me is the simplest way to evaluate them. It's just the principle that anybody who has played sports knows. The kid conquering JV means nothing to me - but the freshman who can get reps, even as a substitute, with the varsity ... THAT is who you bet on.

[mvp 78]

Funny you mention Lars Anderson's case, since Dojji was on record on this site as being against the Sox making a run for Teixeira given his presence. He's terribly inconsistent on his evaluation on prospects depending on how much he likes/dislikes them regardless of ceiling or talent.

But he was right because 23 year olds never regress like that and Kason Gabbard would have been a top of the rotation guy if he didn't get injured or something.

Bring back David Pauley!

[SoxFanForsyth]

Dojji is terribly inconsistent. He's all about pushing the envelope with some of the no-name prospects he likes, but when a real one like JBJ comes along he's all about "not overrating prospects" and "not rushing them" or some other form of nonsense. Terrible.

Despite our differences regarding Giancarlo Stanton, I give you a +1 on this post, good sir.

[marklmw]

I highly, highly, highly doubt any team other than the Yankees or the Dodgers have this kid come 2014. The Yankees have the need and can write off the posting fee without having to pay tax on it. The sox don't need this kid and he will likely cost them about $75-$100 mil when all is said and done

The Giants, Angels, Diamondbacks, and probably another 10 teams are looking at Tanaka. Dodgers have a 2013 payroll of 220M, Yankees 203M while the Red Sox are at 141M. Depending on ARoids suspension hearing the Yankees will save more than 154K per game. The Yankees have always controlled MLB and they want ARODS suspension to hold at 211 games but MLB most often compromises on appeal. I do not think AROD had been caught using before so MLB will have an uphill fight to keep him at 211 games. Cano is due for a 10M raise from 15m to 25m. The Yankees are working to stay beneath the salary cap so I think Boston has a better chance than either the Dodgers or Yankees. The posting fee will be around 50-60m but that does not count towards the cap. He will probably be signed at 12m per over 5 - 60M. Sox can unload Dempster to an NL and pick up part of his salary.

[SoxFanForsyth]

The Giants, Angels, Diamondbacks, and probably another 10 teams are looking at Tanaka. Dodgers have a 2013 payroll of 220M, Yankees 203M while the Red Sox are at 141M. Depending on ARoids suspension hearing the Yankees will save more than 154K per game. The Yankees have always controlled MLB and they want ARODS suspension to hold at 211 games but MLB most often compromises on appeal. I do not think AROD had been caught using before so MLB will have an uphill fight to keep him at 211 games. Cano is due for a 10M raise from 15m to 25m. The Yankees are working to stay beneath the salary cap so I think Boston has a better chance than either the Dodgers or Yankees. The posting fee will be around 50-60m but that does not count towards the cap. He will probably be signed at 12m per over 5 - 60M. Sox can unload Dempster to an NL and pick up part of his salary.

Mark, you have to understand, Jackso wants this guy so bad he's trying to convince himself there won't be a bidding war. It helps him sleep at night.

In the end, this guy will be going to the Rangers.

[marklmw]

It's 100% not a need at the price that it will take to get him. No way.

You don't pay that much money for SP depth. The Sox, with Lester Buchholz Peavy Lackey Doubront Dempster Workman Ranaudo Barnes Owens. I mean. You're going to go spend more money on this??

Two things. Where the hell do you see people saying Ranaudo is a "late inning reliever"?!? That may be his floor. This is a ridiculous, ridiculous statement with zero backing.

Here is a quote from a scout from mid-season:

Second. You say Owens is 2 years away? Really? Because where was Brandon Workman this time last year? Oh, just completing his 5th start in Portland? Where is Owens right now? Oh, just completing his 6th start in Portland? And where did Workman end up? Ah, yes, starting for the Red Sox for a few games.

You're just spewing BS because I didn't agree with signing this guy.

The Red Sox have the 2nd best SP rotation in the American League with tons of talent coming up. Barnes had a very solid year (3.41 FIP in AA, 1.70 FIP in AAA). He will be ready next year along with Ranaudo.

Spending a ton of money on this guy makes zero sense.

SSF ... Your arguments are terrible. The Sox have and continue to scout Tanaka. Are you saying that the organization does not know what they are doing?
Give me a break. Your answer to me is Workman ... with a whip of 1.44 and an era of 5.05 ... really. Of course the Sox can use help at the front end of their rotation.
Buchholz with 101 IP. And we are only talking about the season. Come the playoffs you need a minimum of 2 aces ... if Buchholz did not come back in time for the playoffs the Sox would be entering post season with 2- 1/2 Ace's in Lester and Lackey. Playoffs are all about pitching. The Dodgers would be my favorites to win it all this year if I were not a Sox fanatic. They have arguably the number 1 pitcher in the game in Kershaw and another top 8 in Greinkee. Detroit has a top 5 in Anibal Sanchez and a top 10 in Max Scherzer and for good measure they have former Cy Young pitcher in Verlander who in an off year posted an era of 3.56. Yes he would be the Ace of the Sox. If you do not think adding Tanaka to Lester and Buchholz would be a good baseball decision well ... there is nothing more I can say.

[marklmw]

Mark, you have to understand, Jackso wants this guy so bad he's trying to convince himself there won't be a bidding war. It helps him sleep at night.

In the end, this guy will be going to the Rangers.

Maybe ... maybe ... but the Sox owners have money and they like to win. Do not count the Sox out. After the posting fee is paid the actual contract should be very reasonable. There was a 50m fee for Dice K and another 50M 5 year contract or was it 6 years.

[SoxFanForsyth]

SSF ... Your arguments are terrible. The Sox have and continue to scout Tanaka. Are you saying that the organization does not know what they are doing?
Give me a break. Your answer to me is Workman ... with a whip of 1.44 and an era of 5.05 ... really. Of course the Sox can use help at the front end of their rotation.
Buchholz with 101 IP. And we are only talking about the season. Come the playoffs you need a minimum of 2 aces ... if Buchholz did not come back in time for the playoffs the Sox would be entering post season with 2- 1/2 Ace's in Lester and Lackey. Playoffs are all about pitching. The Dodgers would be my favorites to win it all this year if I were not a Sox fanatic. They have arguably the number 1 pitcher in the game in Kershaw and another top 8 in Greinkee. Detroit has a top 5 in Anibal Sanchez and a top 10 in Max Scherzer and for good measure they have former Cy Young pitcher in Verlander who in an off year posted an era of 3.56. Yes he would be the Ace of the Sox. If you do not think adding Tanaka to Lester and Buchholz would be a good baseball decision well ... there is nothing more I can say.

They're going to do their due diligence. They're not going to sign him. Because they don't need him.

They've got entirely too much talent between their starting 5, Dempster, plus 4 guys in Pawtucket (Barnes, Ranaudo, Webster, Workman), and a guy in Portland who could very well be up by midseason 2015, a la Workman, in Owens.

I'm sorry that this hurts your feelings, but you're wrong. If they're going to spend 100mm+ on a player, why would they spend it on an area of strength??

It makes no sense. They don't need him. At all.

[sk7326]

Basically what I'd note is - just because you get the odd Lars Anderson or Andy Marte does not mean that ALL prospects (or even most) with those crackerjack traits - conquering levels at a young age - does not mean that the process or the evaluation is not sound. The odds are still with you ... I mean my reaction to missing on Anderson is *shrug* it happens.

[Dojji]

Of course it doesn't mean they'll all expoode into a broken heap of flaming gibs, but in an ideal world you give yourself enough redundancy to weather the storm in case yours does. Having a sufficient backup plan for what happened to Middlebrooks would have made us a better team this year. We got really lucky with Iglesias, and we still felt the pain at times.

[marklmw]

They're going to do their due diligence. They're not going to sign him. Because they don't need him.

They've got entirely too much talent between their starting 5, Dempster, plus 4 guys in Pawtucket (Barnes, Ranaudo, Webster, Workman), and a guy in Portland who could very well be up by midseason 2015, a la Workman, in Owens.

I'm sorry that this hurts your feelings, but you're wrong. If they're going to spend 100mm+ on a player, why would they spend it on an area of strength??

It makes no sense. They don't need him. At all.
Maybe you are right ... so why are they scouting him? If they fall in love with the guy you just never know. And about the 100M investment ... only half goes against the Cap. Ownership has all kinds of money.

[SoxSport]

This is exactly my point. You go with Bradley in CF, give him 2 months playing every single day to see how he adjusts, and then make your assessment. If he doesn't work out right now, you send him back to AAA and you have Carp/Gomes - Victorino - Nava until he does.

They have to decide whether to overpay for Ells (and they will have to overpay, with Boras), or to go with Bradley.
That's why it's important to get Bradley some PT--to get his confidence established. And to see what he can do. He is getting some CF time right now. Near term, Bradley and Vic can be used interchangeably in CF and RF, so Ells is not unexpendable. I'd like to see a guy leading off with speed who can get more walks. And less injury prone. Salaries should be measured in games played, not season length.

[sk7326]

Maybe you are right ... so why are they scouting him? If they fall in love with the guy you just never know. And about the 100M investment ... only half goes against the Cap. Ownership has all kinds of money.

The "they are scouting him" stories I think tend to be leverage plays by some source. Teams are getting dimes on everybody. And there is no information advantage in the Nippon league, everybody knows the talent industrywide. I think if they see the stuff and the approach, he'd interest them. With the Japanese guys, the latter is often the problem.

[Dojji]

Maybe you are right ... so why are they scouting him?

They're scouting him because he's an option. that's what due dilligence means. you look at all your options, even the ones you aren't seriously considering, just in case there's a chance you overlooked something important.

[Youk Of The Nation]

The last time the Sox paid an exorbitant sum to secure a Japanese pitcher with zero MLB experience whom they expected to anchor their rotation for years to come, it went...poorly. I would advise caution on repeating the endeavor.

[Dojji]

The last time the Sox paid an exorbitant sum to secure a Japanese pitcher with zero MLB experience whom they expected to anchor their rotation for years to come, it went...poorly. I would advise caution on repeating the endeavor.

It led to a World Series and a Cy Young candidacy before it went poorly, at least concede that much. Matsuzaka was not nearly as advertized, but he definitely came through for us a few times in the clutch before it fell completely apart.

[Youk Of The Nation]

Yeah, but was it enough to justify what the Sox spent on him? And as much as he helped in his first season, how much did he hinder after that?

[mvp 78]

He was actually better in 08 than 07.

[marklmw]

Yeah, but was it enough to justify what the Sox spent on him? And as much as he helped in his first season, how much did he hinder after that?

Some deals eventually come back to bit you but other deals workout ... it is the nature of the game. Did the Sox make revenue in other ways from Dice K? ... I do not know. If you take out the posting fee how over paid was he? Should fans care a dam about what the owners pay for the posting fee or what the payroll is?
Crawford was a much worse signing than Dice K.

[sk7326]

The last time the Sox paid an exorbitant sum to secure a Japanese pitcher with zero MLB experience whom they expected to anchor their rotation for years to come, it went...poorly. I would advise caution on repeating the endeavor.

Sox paid a lot of money for Dice K, got some decent value ... was it a success? No, although it was not a failure of scouting or anything. One always got the sense that it was Matsuzaka himself. His amazing ability to limit BABIP (and it is a skill he seemed to legitimately have) allowed him to be decent at times despite being truly horrid to watch for almost all of his career. His 2008 season was probably one of the most overrated seasons in history. His 2007 was at least as good without the shiny sub 3.00 ERA to show for it.

[sk7326]

Some deals eventually come back to bit you but other deals workout ... it is the nature of the game. Did the Sox make revenue in other ways from Dice K? ... I do not know. If you take out the posting fee how over paid was he? Should fans care a dam about what the owners pay for the posting fee or what the payroll is?
Crawford was a much worse signing than Dice K.

Crawford was a great athlete coming off of a fringe MVP level season - he was the top free agent position player on the market (or near the top I don't have the list in front of me). The odds he would forget how to play baseball entering his age 30 season more or less completely were extremely low. Really, the big shock was that he fell off a cliff as a defensive player ... for which there was no reasonable explanation.

[Palodios]

Crawford was a great athlete coming off of a fringe MVP level season - he was the top free agent position player on the market (or near the top I don't have the list in front of me). The odds he would forget how to play baseball entering his age 30 season more or less completely were extremely low. Really, the big shock was that he fell off a cliff as a defensive player ... for which there was no reasonable explanation.

All the reports seem to claim that the Red Sox did not make much, if any extra revenue because of Dice-k. However, it seems to me that the Red Sox started and stopped displaying Japanese advertisements behind home plate along with Dice-k's starts.

[sk7326]

All the reports seem to claim that the Red Sox did not make much, if any extra revenue because of Dice-k. However, it seems to me that the Red Sox started and stopped displaying Japanese advertisements behind home plate along with Dice-k's starts.

The talent evaluation on DiceK was sound - the stuff is still terrific. But his own approach was horrid and never got fixed.

[Dojji]

Yeah, but was it enough to justify what the Sox spent on him? And as much as he helped in his first season, how much did he hinder after that?

None of what you say here is wrong, but I'm a big believer in taking the good with the bad and the bad with the good. Daisuke did play a big role in making the playoffs, winning the division, and sweeping the Rockies in the World Series, before he collapsed in subsequent years.

[marklmw]

The talent evaluation on DiceK was sound - the stuff is still terrific. But his own approach was horrid and never got fixed.

Dice K tried to be perfect ... it didn't work well. Too many walks ... full counts ... etc. He put his teammates in the field to sleep.

[marklmw]

Here is next seasons starting rotation.

Buchholz
Tanaka
Lester
Lackey
Doubront

Sox deal off Dempster and Peavy and eat 50% of their salaries.

[User Name?]

Is this serious? Tanaka hasn't thrown a single MLB pitch. The chances of him being better than Peavy right off the bat are slim at best. Also, you have no clue (and neither do any of us) about how his stuff will translate to MLB. That being said, why take a big gamble on a ?.

And your point about us as fans not "having to care about what the owners do with money" is moronic. Of course we should care, because there is a limit to their resources, and when they reach their limit because they're making stupid signings, then years like 2012 happen.

Now i'm not saying they shouldn't look into Tanaka, but come on.

[marklmw]

Is this serious? Tanaka hasn't thrown a single MLB pitch. The chances of him being better than Peavy right off the bat are slim at best. Also, you have no clue (and neither do any of us) about how his stuff will translate to MLB. That being said, why take a big gamble on a ?.

And your point about us as fans not "having to care about what the owners do with money" is moronic. Of course we should care, because there is a limit to their resources, and when they reach their limit because they're making stupid signings, then years like 2012 happen.

Now i'm not saying they shouldn't look into Tanaka, but come on.

You make a good point ... Buchholz, Lester, Tanaka, Lackey, Doubront ... and deal off Peavy and Dempster while eating half their salaries and picking up a couple of prospects. I want a stronger 1,2,3 come post season. Lackey, Peavy, Doubront, Dempster ... take your pick on who to let go ... I say Peavy and Dempster ... could be Lackey and Dempster ... but Dempster has to go.

[mvp 78]

So many ellipses.

[Beaneater]

... take your pick on who to let go ... I say Peavy and Dempster ... could be Lackey and Dempster ... but Dempster has to go.

There's no point in letting Lackey go because he's making $11.75 next year and leading the team (among qualifiers) in ERA. So he will be back.

[Palodios]

There's no point in letting Lackey go because he's making $11.75 next year and leading the team (among qualifiers) in ERA. So he will be back.

Lackey is making 16 million next year, and league minimum the following year. If they try to trade him, he would arguably be worth more than any other free agent starting pitcher, and more than any other possible trade candidates besides Price. If someone was willing to give up an elite prospect like the Will Myer for Shields deal, it might be good to sell high. Otherwise, he has pitched way to well to get kicked off the team.

Felix Doubront may be the guy they trade. His work ethnic doesn't seem to be as high as the rest of the group, and with 4 more years of control, he may pull in a quality piece as well.

[Orange Juiced]

Lackey is making 16 million next year, and league minimum the following year. If they try to trade him, he would arguably be worth more than any other free agent starting pitcher, and more than any other possible trade candidates besides Price. If someone was willing to give up an elite prospect like the Will Myer for Shields deal, it might be good to sell high. Otherwise, he has pitched way to well to get kicked off the team.

Felix Doubront may be the guy they trade. His work ethnic doesn't seem to be as high as the rest of the group, and with 4 more years of control, he may pull in a quality piece as well.

Right. But why trade a promising young lefty who has improved considerably from last year? He's exactly the kind of guy you want to keep.

Hey, it's a nice problem to have - too many quality starting pitchers...

[Palodios]

Right. But why trade a promising young lefty who has improved considerably from last year? He's exactly the kind of guy you want to keep.

It all depends on what they receive in return.

[User Name?]

Or if Doubront improves his overall conditioning. They may tire of his lack of work ethic and do away with him.

[Dojji]

Doubront improved his peripherals pretty much across the board this year. I imagine the team thinks there's further room for improvement, but it's hard to argue that he didn't successfully make progress. he does need to up his durability and get deeper into games, I'd say that's the last frontier for him right now.

[marklmw]

Or if Doubront improves his overall conditioning. They may tire of his lack of work ethic and do away with him.

I would imagine that if he improves his overall conditioning he would be improving his work ethic at the same time. Just saying. I think the Sox keep him as he had some good moments this season.

[Palodios]

Doubront improved his peripherals pretty much across the board this year. I imagine the team thinks there's further room for improvement, but it's hard to argue that he didn't successfully make progress. he does need to up his durability and get deeper into games, I'd say that's the last frontier for him right now.

Maybe this is just anecdotal, but I remember Doubront being much more dominant last year, but only in stretches. This year he has been much more consistent, but he has lost the dominance. I know we were just arguing about the unimportance of strikeouts in the other thread, but he dropped from 9.34 K/9 to 7.66 K/9.

[User Name?]

I would imagine that if he improves his overall conditioning he would be improving his work ethic at the same time. Just saying. I think the Sox keep him as he had some good moments this season.

That's what i meant, but i worded it weirdly.

[marklmw]

That's what i meant, but i worded it weirdly.

gotcha

[jacksonianmarch]

LOL, Dojji, pot meet kettle. Regardless, it isn't just about the prospects Dojji. You have 6 bona fide MLB starters. You don't spend $100 mil to get a 7th. It doesn't make sense. Now, if you wanted to keep all 6, then that's fine, but you focus your resources elsewhere

[a700hitter]

LOL, Dojji, pot meet kettle. Regardless, it isn't just about the prospects Dojji. You have 6 bona fide MLB starters. You don't spend $100 mil to get a 7th. It doesn't make sense. Now, if you wanted to keep all 6, then that's fine, but you focus your resources elsewhereThere is probably no room for him next season. Dempster, Lackey and Peavey are under contract and Lester's option kicked in. Doubs is cost controlled. I hope they don't make the mistake of trading away pitching that can give us close to 200 innings That would be a mistake. One of the 6 will probably get hurt next year, so the #6 guy will be experienced depth.

[marklmw]

There is probably no room for him next season. Dempster, Lackey and Peavey are under contract and Lester's option kicked in. Doubs is cost controlled. I hope they don't make the mistake of trading away pitching that can give us close to 200 innings That would be a mistake. One of the 6 will probably get hurt next year, so the #6 guy will be experienced depth.

If Buchholz did not return to form this year you can kiss the post season goodbye. The Sox have a huge need to add a legit # 2 SP. If they think that Tanaka can be that man they should get him. They will always be able to unload Dempster, Peavy or Lackey and get some prospects in return.

[Beaneater]

Lackey is making 16 million next year, and league minimum the following year. If they try to trade him, he would arguably be worth more than any other free agent starting pitcher, and more than any other possible trade candidates besides Price.

Oh, right. Well, other that I was right. :(

Thanks, by the way, for not saying, "Check your $@%&ing facts, you giant pulsating ball of phlegm!" as sometimes happens here. I appreciate that.

[User Name?]

For luxury tax calculation purposes, Lackey's making the 11 +, not the 16.

[Behindenemylines]

If Buchholz did not return to form this year you can kiss the post season goodbye. The Sox have a huge need to add a legit # 2 SP. If they think that Tanaka can be that man they should get him. They will always be able to unload Dempster, Peavy or Lackey and get some prospects in return.

I agree. If they think that he would be an upgrade in the rotation you could trade from the depth they already have built up. Between what is on the current major league roster and the talent in the minors the SP depth is the best it has been in awhile. With other teams in great need of starters ($panks) it could get quite costly trying to land Tanaka.

[marklmw]

I agree. If they think that he would be an upgrade in the rotation you could trade from the depth they already have built up. Between what is on the current major league roster and the talent in the minors the SP depth is the best it has been in awhile. With other teams in great need of starters ($panks) it could get quite costly trying to land Tanaka.
The $panks have been on record as trying to get beneath the luxury tax. The Sox are in much better position due to the fact that they might be taking the salaries of Ellsbury, Drew and our 2 non closers off the books next year. The posting fee blows but it does not affect the Cap. It shall be interesting.

[SoxSport]

They will say no to Tanaka. He said no to them at least once.

[mvp 78]

If Buchholz did not return to form this year you can kiss the post season goodbye. The Sox have a huge need to add a legit # 2 SP. If they think that Tanaka can be that man they should get him. They will always be able to unload Dempster, Peavy or Lackey and get some prospects in return.

If they need a legit anything it's a #1.

[marklmw]

If they need a legit anything it's a #1.
Well I am assuming that the health issue with Buchholz was a fluke this year. It would be hard to replace him as the number 1.

[mvp 78]

Well I am assuming that the health issue with Buchholz was a fluke this year. It would be hard to replace him as the number 1.

He has health issues every year. It's no fluke.

[marklmw]

He has health issues every year. It's no fluke.
You make a good point.

[jacksonianmarch]

A legit #1 doesn't just put up the big numbers, they put up the big innings and the durability. Buchholz puts up the stats, but cannot stay healthy. If he kills it this post-season, the sox might be best served by moving him when his stock is sky high

[a700hitter]

A legit #1 doesn't just put up the big numbers, they put up the big innings and the durability. Buchholz puts up the stats, but cannot stay healthy. If he kills it this post-season, the sox might be best served by moving him when his stock is sky highThey could get a huge haul for him. I'd hate to see him go, but I don't know if he will ever consistently put up 200 inning seasons.

[sk7326]

If Buchholz did not return to form this year you can kiss the post season goodbye. The Sox have a huge need to add a legit # 2 SP. If they think that Tanaka can be that man they should get him. They will always be able to unload Dempster, Peavy or Lackey and get some prospects in return.

Ehhhh ... the Red Sox won this year because they basically had four #2-#3 starters (Dempster excepted though if he is your 5, that's good). The Sox (and every other team) could use a King Felix sort of legit #1 But there are maybe 10 of those, so the odds of actually having one is pretty darn low. (Scherzer, Darvish, Price, Wainwright, Felix, Verlander - big picture, Strasburg ... you start running out of names pretty quickly)

[marklmw]

Ehhhh ... the Red Sox won this year because they basically had four #2-#3 starters (Dempster excepted though if he is your 5, that's good). The Sox (and every other team) could use a King Felix sort of legit #1 But there are maybe 10 of those, so the odds of actually having one is pretty darn low. (Scherzer, Darvish, Price, Wainwright, Felix, Verlander - big picture, Strasburg ... you start running out of names pretty quickly)

And that is why Tanaka is an interesting name ... some think that Tanaka is more talented then Darvish.

[Orange Juiced]

They could get a huge haul for him. I'd hate to see him go, but I don't know if he will ever consistently put up 200 inning seasons.

If the Sox understand this, don't you think other teams also understand this? And if they do, why would they give the Sox a "huge haul" for a guy with such red flags?

[a700hitter]

If the Sox understand this, don't you think other teams also understand this? And if they do, why would they give the Sox a "huge haul" for a guy with such red flags?He would probably need to put up 200 innings next season to remove those flags.

[sk7326]

http://irfast.blogspot.com/2013/08/masahiro-tanaka-scouting-report.html for one scouting report ...

Just comparing Nippon stats, Darvish rates out a bit better ... the strikeout rate was (and has translated) absolutely insane. Tanaka is no slouch - and from what I've read could be a true #2 sort, which is not at all bad. The posting fee rumors not in the ballpark of Darvish's from what I can tell.

[Palodios]

If the Sox understand this, don't you think other teams also understand this? And if they do, why would they give the Sox a "huge haul" for a guy with such red flags?

As a fan this offseason, many of us were clamoring for an ace, a #1 guy. Most of my suggestions were guys who weren't #1s, but had the potential to be... Josh Johnson, Peavy, both Santanas, short deals for guys like Liriano/Marcum. If Buchholz has a good postseason, creates a large amount of buzz, he could definitely be worth a good haul to someone, even if it is a GM trying to create their own buzz and sell tickets.

Put this into perspective... When Josh Johnson, Reyes, and Buerhle were traded to the Jays, the group pulled in some very good talented. Josh Johnson was the only guy in that group who wasn't just a salary dump.

[marklmw]

As a fan this offseason, many of us were clamoring for an ace, a #1 guy. Most of my suggestions were guys who weren't #1s, but had the potential to be... Josh Johnson, Peavy, both Santanas, short deals for guys like Liriano/Marcum. If Buchholz has a good postseason, creates a large amount of buzz, he could definitely be worth a good haul to someone, even if it is a GM trying to create their own buzz and sell tickets.

Put this into perspective... When Josh Johnson, Reyes, and Buerhle were traded to the Jays, the group pulled in some very good talented. Josh Johnson was the only guy in that group who wasn't just a salary dump.

I would imagine that Buchholz is our number 1 for the playoffs. If Buchholz does have a great post season IMO he isn't going anywhere.

[sk7326]

I am not sure how much the postseason will impact things on Buchholz. There is the body of work - and yes, the durability is a concern if a fat extension is in his future. But this season he has shown at least evidence that the #1 stuff we saw in the past could be for real. I'd be hesitant to offer him years but there is time for that hestitation to be allayed.

[Palodios]

I am not sure how much the postseason will impact things on Buchholz. There is the body of work - and yes, the durability is a concern if a fat extension is in his future. But this season he has shown at least evidence that the #1 stuff we saw in the past could be for real. I'd be hesitant to offer him years but there is time for that hestitation to be allayed.

He's signed for two more years with two more years of club options. They won't have to make a decision until they have a better grasp of his health.

[SoxSport]

They can go all the way if their starters can pitch well. Bullpen, too. It's all about the pitching in these short series.That's why I don't like Cleveland. The As are dangerous. So is TB. The Tigers have issues: Miggy's health, Verlander's form. The Dodgers will be tough with Kershaw and Greinke.

[sk7326]

Cleveland is a contender of course - because anybody who qualifies can win it. But they basically rolled up 92 wins against the sisters of the poor (16-2 against the White Sox, 53 wins against sub .500 teams). This is not a dig at all - beating the teams you should beat matters. But CLEARLY they are the team Boston wants to draw.

The playoffs are a true coin flip - the best team doesn't win it that often. Missing bats really helps - as well as putting great at-bats together. The Red Sox do both well - the things they are weaker at (pre-7th inning relief) are things most of these teams are bad at. We're the best team in the league - but unlike say, the NBA, it means precisely zero now.

[marklmw]

He's signed for two more years with two more years of club options. They won't have to make a decision until they have a better grasp of his health.

Talking about dealing Buchholz at this time is a non discussion. The Sox can significantly improve next years team over this years team by adding a quality SP and Tanaka might be that player.

[Palodios]

Talking about dealing Buchholz at this time is a non discussion. The Sox can significantly improve next years team over this years team by adding a quality SP and Tanaka might be that player.

Adding two reliable setup guys would be a significant upgrade. Adding McCann would be a significant upgrade. Introducing an unproven Japanese pitcher to the toughest division of hitters is not an upgrade for 2014, it is an upgrade for the years ahead.

[Dojji]

Adding two reliable setup guys would be a significant upgrade. Adding McCann would be a significant upgrade.

Are those things sufficient upgrades to justify the expense of bringing them in over the decent, relatively inexpensive men we have at those positions now?


Introducing an unproven Japanese pitcher to the toughest division of hitters is not an upgrade for 2014, it is an upgrade for the years ahead.

And the problem with that is? It's a bad FO that only plans for the next 12 months after all.

[marklmw]

Adding two reliable setup guys would be a significant upgrade. Adding McCann would be a significant upgrade. Introducing an unproven Japanese pitcher to the toughest division of hitters is not an upgrade for 2014, it is an upgrade for the years ahead.
Adding McCann will cost us a draft pick .... yes? I am happy with Salty and I hope that he signs a 3 year deal. It will be interesting to see what the Sox do this off-season ... my only point is that if the team comes back as is but with JBJ and Bogaerts replacing Ellsbury and Drew I am in favor to adding a # 1 or 2 type SP.
You are right about it not being only about the 2014 season but 4-5 years after. If the Sox control Buchholz and perhaps resign Lester adding a 3rd quality SP could never hurt.

[User Name?]

Are those things sufficient upgrades to justify the expense of bringing them in over the decent, relatively inexpensive men we have at those positions now?

He said "adding two reliable setup men" not "signing two reliable setup men". The idea of bringing one or both from within was never ruled out.


And the problem with that is? It's a bad FO that only plans for the next 12 months after all.

A good FO, though, makes moves for both the short and long term when a championship window opens up, as it has for the Red Sox. Your logic is terrible.

[User Name?]

Adding McCann will cost us a draft pick .... yes? I am happy with Salty and I hope that he signs a 3 year deal. It will be interesting to see what the Sox do this off-season ... my only point is that if the team comes back as is but with JBJ and Bogaerts replacing Ellsbury and Drew I am in favor to adding a # 1 or 2 type SP.
You are right about it not being only about the 2014 season but 4-5 years after. If the Sox control Buchholz and perhaps resign Lester adding a 3rd quality SP could never hurt.

Salty couldn't hold McCann's jock strap, and again, the problem with Tanaka is that he's a massive gamble. You just don't know how his stuff will translate to MLB.

[Palodios]

He said "adding two reliable setup men" not "signing two reliable setup men". The idea of bringing one or both from within was never ruled out.

I did, although I am not sure what can be added from within the organization. There is plenty of talent in the minors (plus Dempster + Doubront) but I don't think those guys will be reliable every single outing right now. I don't see the Red Sox resigning Bailey. Hanrahan is a possibility, but there are plenty of doubts there too. Brian Wilson on a one year deal would be nice, even at high AAV simply because his beard would fit well here. There are always overpays and bargains on relievers in free agency, Ben just needs to find his.

[marklmw]

Salty couldn't hold McCann's jock strap, and again, the problem with Tanaka is that he's a massive gamble. You just don't know how his stuff will translate to MLB.

I will defer to management on if Tanaka has the right stuff. IMO you are overvaluing McCann by most baseball metrics. WAR alone Salty is 2.8 while McCann is 2.1. Salty also has a better Avg., OPB & OPS for 2013. Saying that Salty cannot hold McCann's jock strap is both stupid and Un-American.

[marklmw]

I did, although I am not sure what can be added from within the organization. There is plenty of talent in the minors (plus Dempster + Doubront) but I don't think those guys will be reliable every single outing right now. I don't see the Red Sox resigning Bailey. Hanrahan is a possibility, but there are plenty of doubts there too. Brian Wilson on a one year deal would be nice, even at high AAV simply because his beard would fit well here. There are always overpays and bargains on relievers in free agency, Ben just needs to find his.

I predict that Demspter will be dealt. He does not give the team anything that they cannot find on the farm right now. Plus, that was a bonehead move to be hitting ARoid, things worked out well but that singular event seemed to ignite the Yankees which is something you never want to be doing.

[User Name?]

I will defer to management on if Tanaka has the right stuff. IMO you are overvaluing McCann by most baseball metrics. WAR alone Salty is 2.8 while McCann is 2.1. Salty also has a better Avg., OPB & OPS for 2013. Saying that Salty cannot hold McCann's jock strap is both stupid and Un-American.

The problem with WAR and catcher value is that WAR's formula doesn't have a reliable catcher defense component, and it's heavily affected by games played, which gives Salty an edge right off the bat. Catcher is a defense-first position, and Salty, even with his improvement, is still a terrible catcher.

Also, Salty's offensive season was fueled by an impossible-to-sustain .372 BABIP. It's more about you overvaluing Salty for what is more likely than not a mirage. And for the record, Salty had all of eight more OPS points than McCann, and wRC+ (a superior metric to OPS) has McCann as having had the better offensive season 122-117.

I am also not American and can therefore be a bit more objective regarding this subject.

[a700hitter]

I predict that Demspter will be dealt. He does not give the team anything that they cannot find on the farm right now. Plus, that was a bonehead move to be hitting ARoid, things worked out well but that singular event seemed to ignite the Yankees which is something you never want to be doing.They will have to eat salary and still not get much in return. IMO, he's worth more as a depth option than what we would get in return.

[marklmw]

The problem with WAR and catcher value is that WAR's formula doesn't have a reliable catcher defense component, and it's heavily affected by games played, which gives Salty an edge right off the bat. Catcher is a defense-first position, and Salty, even with his improvement, is still a terrible catcher.

Also, Salty's offensive season was fueled by an impossible-to-sustain .372 BABIP. It's more about you overvaluing Salty for what is more likely than not a mirage. And for the record, Salty had all of eight more OPS points than McCann, and wRC+ (a superior metric to OPS) has McCann as having had the better offensive season 122-117.

I am also not American and can therefore be a bit more objective regarding this subject.

UN ... the Anti-American comment was meant as a joke. Politicians in our country through the term around including President Obummer. I just have to stand up when you belittle Salty in the manner that you did especially since he has improved defensively and offensively and is an all around good guy playing one of the toughest positions. IMO the Sox will be doing well to re-sign Salty until they can develop a replacement or sign a significant upgrade. To me McCann at best is marginally better than Salty.

[User Name?]

UN ... the Anti-American comment was meant as a joke. Politicians in our country through the term around including President Obummer. I just have to stand up when you belittle Salty in the manner that you did especially since he has improved defensively and offensively and is an all around good guy playing one of the toughest positions. IMO the Sox will be doing well to re-sign Salty until they can develop a replacement or sign a significant upgrade. To me McCann at best is marginally better than Salty.

Don't get me wrong, i think Salty's cool and i like his hair. He can also hit, but he's just terrible defensively. I won't cry to the heavens if they re-sign him, but i strongly disagree that McCann is just a marginal upgrade.

[dupree]

McCann is another pipe dream. He will cost more than Salty and is a small upgrade for the money he would command. Plus i dont see McCann leaving ATL. Also Salty's ability to call games in my opinion has gotten far better, he will never be a great defensive catcher but I think he deserves a contract and Ben should work fast on him after the season's end.

[User Name?]

On what do you base these ideas? McCann will get more money, but how much more given his age and this year's strong catcher market? Also, Atlanta has his replacement in Evan Gattis. There is no reason whatsoever why the Sox couldn't sign McCann if they wanted him.

[dupree]

I just dont see McCann leaving ATL. And yes the Sox could sign him if they wanted but why spend more money on a older player to come in and have to learn the pitching staff and not be that much of an upgrade. Id say resign Salty. But like always if someone doesnt agree with your exact thinking you ridicule them and question every aspect of their thinking process like you are some expert of the FO thinking. Well sorry to say you are not if you were you wouldnt be on a Red Sox discussion forum making your comments. Please Stop.

[marklmw]

Don't get me wrong, i think Salty's cool and i like his hair. He can also hit, but he's just terrible defensively. I won't cry to the heavens if they re-sign him, but i strongly disagree that McCann is just a marginal upgrade.

UN ... I think that you have a man-crush on McCann. His numbers just do agree with your assessment. Both he and Salty have similar DWAR of .2. Granted Salty played 22 more games at catcher but that is 22 more games squatting behind the plate so that makes Salty's offensive numbers even more impressive than McCann's. McCann CS% is .242 while Salty's was .212 ... both are not impressive. Other factors are how well the pitchers hold the runners since sometimes the base is stolen on the pitcher not the catcher. Are the Sox interested in McCann because he is a FA because if I were Boston I would be going after Yan Gomes from Cleveland ... sporting a DWAR of 1.9 and a CS% of .408 and only 26 years old. The Sox can give up some prospects and have a catcher under club control for a number of years and at a great price.

[User Name?]

UN ... I think that you have a man-crush on McCann. His numbers just do agree with your assessment. Both he and Salty have similar DWAR of .2. Granted Salty played 22 more games at catcher but that is 22 more games squatting behind the plate so that makes Salty's offensive numbers even more impressive than McCann's. McCann CS% is .242 while Salty's was .212 ... both are not impressive. Other factors are how well the pitchers hold the runners since sometimes the base is stolen on the pitcher not the catcher. Are the Sox interested in McCann because he is a FA because if I were Boston I would be going after Yan Gomes from Cleveland ... sporting a DWAR of 1.9 and a CS% of .408 and only 26 years old. The Sox can give up some prospects and have a catcher under club control for a number of years and at a great price.

Not on McCann, but rather with solid defensive catchers. I'd also be content with Carlos Ruiz on a short contract, while waiting for Swihart to be ready. And as i established above, WAR (neither Fangraphs' nor BB-Ref) doesn't have fleshed-out defensive components. But fielding bibles from years past love McCann's defense and hate Salty's, so in reality, pertinent stats do agree with my assessment.

[seabeachfred]

I will defer to management on if Tanaka has the right stuff. IMO you are overvaluing McCann by most baseball metrics. WAR alone Salty is 2.8 while McCann is 2.1. Salty also has a better Avg., OPB & OPS for 2013. Saying that Salty cannot hold McCann's jock strap is both stupid and Un-American.

Finally Jarrod is emerging as a solid catcher and hitter-----nothing spectacular but steadily getting better and fitting in very well with the rest of the team and the pitchers. I don't know why we would want to jettison him now. I think we need to keep as much of this team together as possible. Decent talent and chemistry showed its beautiful body this season for us and while we will most likely lose some players I would hate to see a whole new slew of people on our roster next season when we have people here who have proven they can do the job. Salty stopped swinging for the fences this season, upped his average close to 50 points and smacked out 40 doubles. I'd like to see him stay with us, especially if McCann is going to cost us a bundle. What I would really like to see is a No. 1 type ace pitcher who we could swindle some team out of.

[User Name?]

Upped his average because he had a .372 BABIP. When (not if) he regresses to his low-average, sub .300 OBP, you'll be the first to jump his bones.

[marklmw]

Finally Jarrod is emerging as a solid catcher and hitter-----nothing spectacular but steadily getting better and fitting in very well with the rest of the team and the pitchers. I don't know why we would want to jettison him now. I think we need to keep as much of this team together as possible. Decent talent and chemistry showed its beautiful body this season for us and while we will most likely lose some players I would hate to see a whole new slew of people on our roster next season when we have people here who have proven they can do the job. Salty stopped swinging for the fences this season, upped his average close to 50 points and smacked out 40 doubles. I'd like to see him stay with us, especially if McCann is going to cost us a bundle. What I would really like to see is a No. 1 type ace pitcher who we could swindle some team out of.
I'm all in with you on finding a No. 1 type pitcher but unfortunately there are not many to be had and all the clubs know their value. This is why the organization is looking at Tanaka.

[sk7326]

Upped his average because he had a .372 BABIP. When (not if) he regresses to his low-average, sub .300 OBP, you'll be the first to jump his bones.

BABIP won't last - but the walks and doubles were up ... which are more sustainable (improved approach). He is a solid starter in a position where replacement level is quite bad. If only he followed Victorino and gave up switch hitting.

[marklmw]

BABIP won't last - but the walks and doubles were up ... which are more sustainable (improved approach). He is a solid starter in a position where replacement level is quite bad. If only he followed Victorino and gave up switch hitting.
Salty set a franchise record for doubles with 40 this year something that Carlton Fisk never accomplished. If you are hitting doubles you are making good contact.

[sk7326]

Salty set a franchise record for doubles with 40 this year something that Carlton Fisk never accomplished. If you are hitting doubles you are making good contact.

If he just focused on hitting lefthanded where he does mash quite a bit ... he'd be 30% better immediately (those 30% of his plate appearances he throws away against lefties)

[jacksonianmarch]

Salty hit it just right. He'll hit FA and he will likely regress ridiculously. If his BABIP drops to even .330, his numbers would be piss poor. He's gonna get a big contract because of the dearth of talent at the position. And whomever signs him will regret it. The sox are better off getting a sup pick and letting him walk. They can see what Lavarnway could do in a full season. Chances are, he'll have a similar WAR to Salty in 2014

[marklmw]

Salty hit it just right. He'll hit FA and he will likely regress ridiculously. If his BABIP drops to even .330, his numbers would be piss poor. He's gonna get a big contract because of the dearth of talent at the position. And whomever signs him will regret it. The sox are better off getting a sup pick and letting him walk. They can see what Lavarnway could do in a full season. Chances are, he'll have a similar WAR to Salty in 2014
I can live with Lavarnway ... IMO that it makes no sense to pay big money for McCann. The Red Sox will get in trouble if they take the attitude that they need the best player at each position. When a team has good chemistry and lead the league in wins should you bother with marginal upgrades? It is my contention that adding Tanaka and dealing Dempster is not a marginal upgrade. It is my contention that signing a younger and most likely healthier Abreu is not a marginal upgrade over Napoli.

[User Name?]

You're contradicting your point, because you don't know what impact Tanaka would have on team chemistry, and because he hasn't thrown a single pitch at the MLB level, you don't know whether he'd be a marginal upgrade to Dempster. Can't have it both ways.

[User Name?]

Salty hit it just right. He'll hit FA and he will likely regress ridiculously. If his BABIP drops to even .330, his numbers would be piss poor. He's gonna get a big contract because of the dearth of talent at the position. And whomever signs him will regret it. The sox are better off getting a sup pick and letting him walk. They can see what Lavarnway could do in a full season. Chances are, he'll have a similar WAR to Salty in 2014

You can also be certain that a fair amount of those doubles were also aided by the BABIP God. He also walked a whopping 5 times more than last year in the same number of games, and struck out the same 139 times so i don't see the fantastically improved approach that is mentioned around here.

They don't have to spend big on McCann (i like the guy not because he's "The best at the position" but because he plays good D and is tough). They can go the cheap route with a guy like Ruiz, see what they have with Lavarnway and wait until Swihart's ready. What i don't want to see is them paying Salty big bucks only to watch him regress massively.

[marklmw]

You're contradicting your point, because you don't know what impact Tanaka would have on team chemistry, and because he hasn't thrown a single pitch at the MLB level, you don't know whether he'd be a marginal upgrade to Dempster. Can't have it both ways.
Starting Pitchers do not count towards team chemistry. They are a different bread. They come every 5 or 6 days and do their job ... otherwise they are playing golf.

[User Name?]

Starting Pitchers do not count towards team chemistry. They are a different bread. They come every 5 or 6 days and do their job ... otherwise they are playing golf.

Two words: Josh Beckett.

[marklmw]

You can also be certain that a fair amount of those doubles were also aided by the BABIP God. He also walked a whopping 5 times more than last year in the same number of games, and struck out the same 139 times so i don't see the fantastically improved approach that is mentioned around here.

They don't have to spend big on McCann (i like the guy not because he's "The best at the position" but because he plays good D and is tough). They can go the cheap route with a guy like Ruiz, see what they have with Lavarnway and wait until Swihart's ready. What i don't want to see is them paying Salty big bucks only to watch him regress massively.

UN ... you and I but heads on some things but I respect your opinion non-the-less. Swihart is about 3 years away isn't he? At first I was thinking to re-sign Salty for 3 years but the more I think about it I would rather give him a QO and keep him for one more year to see how things go. If he signs with another club we pick up a high draft pick and go with Lavarnway and Ross. I believe that we can give QO's to Drew, Salty and Ellsbury and all three are likely to sign with another team. Best case senario is that Drew and Salty sign with another club and Ellsbury stays Boston for 2014.

[sk7326]

chemistry is a trailing indicator, not a leading one. McCann is tough, but body has been through a lot. And if by "tough" that includes the Jose Fernandez thing a couple weeks ago - that is weak sauce.

[User Name?]

UN ... you and I but heads on some things but I respect your opinion non-the-less. Swihart is about 3 years away isn't he? At first I was thinking to re-sign Salty for 3 years but the more I think about it I would rather give him a QO and keep him for one more year to see how things go. If he signs with another club we pick up a high draft pick and go with Lavarnway and Ross. I believe that we can give QO's to Drew, Salty and Ellsbury and all three are likely to sign with another team. Best case senario is that Drew and Salty sign with another club and Ellsbury stays Boston for 2014.

This is a sensible position.


chemistry is a trailing indicator, not a leading one. McCann is tough, but body has been through a lot. And if by "tough" that includes the Jose Fernandez thing a couple weeks ago - that is weak sauce.

I mean physically tough. Like returning from shoulder surgery to hit 20 homers and play in over 100 games tough. And Fernandez was show-boating, and it's the catcher's obligation to protect his pitcher.

[sk7326]

This is a sensible position.



I mean physically tough. Like returning from shoulder surgery to hit 20 homers and play in over 100 games tough. And Fernandez was show-boating, and it's the catcher's obligation to protect his pitcher.

Fernandez seemed to expressing genuine shock at how he crushed that ... hard to act like you've been there when you almost certainly haven't. Taking off your mask at a kid acting like a kid is much more playing to the cameras than expressing joy at a "maybe not once in a lifetime but pretty close" act.

[User Name?]

Fernandez seemed to expressing genuine shock at how he crushed that ... hard to act like you've been there when you almost certainly haven't. Taking off your mask at a kid acting like a kid is much more playing to the cameras than expressing joy at a "maybe not once in a lifetime but pretty close" act.

Yeah that wasn't it at all. He was showboating because a Braves player showed him up after hitting a HR.

[seabeachfred]

Upped his average because he had a .372 BABIP. When (not if) he regresses to his low-average, sub .300 OBP, you'll be the first to jump his bones.

There you go again, being a God damn know it all. How the hell do you know I will jump his bones? You some sort of Merlin or something? I made an accurate statement that Jarrod improved markedly this season, both offensively and defensively, and you're no mind reader either. You have no clue at all except your opinion that he will regress. That may be your position and you could turn out right. You could also prove to be full of shit.

[mvp 78]

Everyone on here is full of shit.

[Bellhorn04]

Everyone on here is full of shit.

Hmmm...kind of a Catch-22 isn't it. A regular here can't deny that they're full of shit, because if they weren't full of shit they wouldn't be a regular here.

[a700hitter]

At least there is an acknowledgment of the fact that we are all full of shit. That's why it is so annoying when one full of shit person insists that another full of shit person's opinion is wrong. LOL!!

[marklmw]

Everyone on here is full of shit.

Recognizing that you are full of shit is the first step to recovery. Of course you are right ... we are all full of shit but tell me who isn't?

[Dojji]

Yeah that wasn't it at all. He was showboating because a Braves player showed him up after hitting a HR.

hard to make that claim when this was a 21 year old pitcher who just hit a dinger. If your personality is in any way demonstrative, that will get a demonstration out of you.

Call me crazy, but put me in that situation where I'd made a big play that NO ONE, including me, was expecting I'd be able to make, and pivotal to how the game turned out no less, you couldn't shut me up or keep me on the ground for the rest of the night.

[sk7326]

hard to make that claim when this was a 21 year old pitcher who just hit a dinger. If your personality is in any way demonstrative, that will get a demonstration out of you.

Call me crazy, but put me in that situation where I'd made a big play that NO ONE, including me, was expecting I'd be able to make, and pivotal to how the game turned out no less, you couldn't shut me up or keep me on the ground for the rest of the night.

A Braves player got him riled up earlier in the game - but he acted emotionally. What is funny is wanting players with personality and then balking when a player actually expresses it. From a media criticism perspective, there is definitely a racial component to it (if the racial hats were reversed the narrative would be much different). Maybe he should have dialed it back a touch - but then so should have McCann instead of showboating in front of the cameras (and say sending a note after the game). Fernandez, and what he showed this year is very much one of the best things about the game now. BTW: Puig is a fun rookie of the year narrative but it really has to go to Fernandez.

[User Name?]

There you go again, being a God damn know it all. How the hell do you know I will jump his bones? You some sort of Merlin or something? I made an accurate statement that Jarrod improved markedly this season, both offensively and defensively, and you're no mind reader either. You have no clue at all except your opinion that he will regress. That may be your position and you could turn out right. You could also prove to be full of shit.

No one on here is as full of shit as you are. Jumping bones is all you did until the team started winning. Get over yourself.

a700 talking about others being annoying. My irony-meter is about to explode.

[User Name?]

Back on the Tanaka/Salty will regress topic:

http://irfast.blogspot.com/2013/08/masahiro-tanaka-scouting-report.html

This is a very interesting (though not from a reputable source) write-up on Tanaka that i'm sure mark will appreciate.

[sk7326]

Back on the Tanaka/Salty will regress topic:

http://irfast.blogspot.com/2013/08/masahiro-tanaka-scouting-report.html

This is a very interesting (though not from a reputable source) write-up on Tanaka that i'm sure mark will appreciate.

It's a good piece and does cite some reputable blogs ... ERA stats for Tanaka are obviously excellent. At the same time, the strikeout numbers tilt very much in Darvish's favor (in that comparison) - and strikeout rate is a good place to go as a first approximation of "stuff". Tanaka's K's are more reminiscent of DiceK (http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/profile.asp?P=daisuke-matsuzaka).

The real issue with his pro translation is approach - we know the Japanese approach for pitchers has involved a lot of deception and often pitching away from contact. Darvish is a notable exception, with his height and his very much American-style "let em try to hit it" view. Does Tanaka "come right at" hitters? These are not prospects but veterans with solid track records - as the Daisuke experience showed, changing their fundamental approach, the thing which got them so much notoriety, is a very difficult ask.

[marklmw]

Back on the Tanaka/Salty will regress topic:

http://irfast.blogspot.com/2013/08/masahiro-tanaka-scouting-report.html

This is a very interesting (though not from a reputable source) write-up on Tanaka that i'm sure mark will appreciate.

Thank You UN ... I do appreciate this scouting report.

[seabeachfred]

Everyone on here is full of shit.

MVP----I will second that. All we are doing is making educated guesses and I don't think any of us would put any serious money on it. But we should be able to disagree on something without being attacked. At any rate, let's hope our hearts triumph over our heads. It would mean better news for the Sox.

[seabeachfred]

No one on here is as full of shit as you are. Jumping bones is all you did until the team started winning. Get over yourself.

a700 talking about others being annoying. My irony-meter is about to explode.

You get over yourself numbnuts. Another know-it-all muttering from the best ass inspector on the board. If I'm full of shit you're the expert who can tell me that. If your irony-meter is about to explode it would be a major improvement over your thinking that your shit doesn't smell. Either accept other opinions not in line with yours or shut the hell up. Some of us are getting tired of you thinking you're some kind of ace around here. You're not. And aside from you, I have bent over backward to getting along with everyone on this board.

[User Name?]

You get over yourself numbnuts. Another know-it-all muttering from the best ass inspector on the board. If I'm full of shit you're the expert who can tell me that. If your irony-meter is about to explode it would be a major improvement over your thinking that your shit doesn't smell. Either accept other opinions not in line with yours or shut the hell up. Some of us are getting tired of you thinking you're some kind of ace around here. You're not. And aside from you, I have bent over backward to getting along with everyone on this board.

Says the guy who spends all of his time talking about how he's a "scout" but goes on diatribes like this one at the slightest provocation (as in, being called out on his shit). A scout needs two things you certainly don't have: Restraint and patience, so save me the stories.

You spent the last two years shitting on Salty, and immediately jumped on his bandwagon after a decent, but not-repeatable season. Please.

Really, get over yourself.

Oh, and as a side note, my nuts may be "numb", but they still work, along with the rest of the equipment. I'm sure you can't say the same, lostnuts.

[seabeachfred]

Says the guy who spends all of his time talking about how he's a "scout" but goes on diatribes like this one at the slightest provocation (as in, being called out on his shit). A scout needs two things you certainly don't have: Restraint and patience, so save me the stories.

You spent the last two years shitting on Salty, and immediately jumped on his bandwagon after a decent, but not-repeatable season. Please.

Really, get over yourself.

Oh, and as a side note, my nuts may be "numb", but they still work, along with the rest of the equipment. I'm sure you can't say the same, lostnuts.

Amazing how you can dish it out but go into a frenzy when someone comes back at you. A scout? I've mentioned that about three or four times that I have done some scouting for friends who are scouts. I don't go droning in on that incessantly and you seem to be the only one who has trouble with it. Frankly, I'm sick of the way you keep insulting Sox Sport, 700 Hitter and others who you disagree with. Where the hell is that "we can agree to disagree" mantra that most of us have. If someone agrees with you high praise emanates from your computer as if you have a pipeline to on high. And how stupid can you be? When Salty showed improvement this season I said so; when he looked like a player with problems last season I said so too. Again, you need to accept the fact that "we can agree to disagree", but that fact seems to escape you.

If you cannot accept that the best advice I could give is the old slogan.....To be seen stand up, to he heard speak up, to be appreciated SHUT UP!!!!!!

[User Name?]

Whatever Fred. I said you'd complain if Salty got a ton of money and he sucked (and you would certainly complain, because you complain a lot, and in this case, rightfully so) and you went into full-assault mode. Grow up, for the hundredth time.

Just because i told you you'd jump his bones if he sucked, you didn't have to go all fucking psycho. It's a message board post, not a death threat. You are almost 80 years old, and by now you should be able to : A) Have some goddamned restraint. B ) Be able to read a passing comment as such and not turn it into an all-out flame war.

Get a grip.

[lospunchados]

Tanaka seems like an interesting player ( thanks for the article link and scouting report), but I'm not sure what kind of contract he'll command and the new sox front office are already leery of giving proving major league players long term and big contracts. I'd be surprised if the sox are willing to pay what he will go for, especially with the urgency the Angels have to become relevant again and the horrible starting staff they have.

As for Jose Fernandez, why not do that? He crushed that pitch and it was his first career home run. He hit .220 this year and the batters against him are hitting .180, that's amazing. I never understood why pitchers are so sensitive about a guy tossing a bat or watching his homer a little. Pitchers are generally successful 65-75% of the time and batters obviously are successful much less. If you don't want him to do that, don't put it right down the middle of the plate. It's not like its a beer league, and Fernandez's team should be playing two levels above because they are winning every game by 20, they are all professionals. If you are a pitcher, get a new ball regroup and try and get the next guy out.

[marklmw]

Tanaka seems like an interesting player ( thanks for the article link and scouting report), but I'm not sure what kind of contract he'll command and the new sox front office are already leery of giving proving major league players long term and big contracts. I'd be surprised if the sox are willing to pay what he will go for, especially with the urgency the Angels have to become relevant again and the horrible starting staff they have.

As for Jose Fernandez, why not do that? He crushed that pitch and it was his first career home run. He hit .220 this year and the batters against him are hitting .180, that's amazing. I never understood why pitchers are so sensitive about a guy tossing a bat or watching his homer a little. Pitchers are generally successful 65-75% of the time and batters obviously are successful much less. If you don't want him to do that, don't put it right down the middle of the plate. It's not like its a beer league, and Fernandez's team should be playing two levels above because they are winning every game by 20, they are all professionals. If you are a pitcher, get a new ball regroup and try and get the next guy out.

You make a good point ... the whole incident was overblown for sure. You often see pitchers celebrating so why not a hitter. I do not think that Fernandez over celebrated.

[marklmw]

Hey all,

I am a rookie on this forum. I have already bumped heads with a few of the members and it surprised me. We all like the Sox so I think it will be great if we can accept the fact that we are all full of shit and we only know about 1 tenth of what management knows. If someone has a opinion or thought on something that you do not agree with please try your best to do one of the following:
1. Ignore the persons post
2. Reply to the post but in a respectful way.
3. Bust the persons ass but in a respectful and humorous way. You are not speaking to the person so they cannot tell from your voice that you are just busting ass ... make it clear that you are so they do not feel insulted.
4. Remember that just because you think that what was posted is horse-shit try to be kind. There will be a day believe it or not that you will be on the other end.
5. Have fun ... baseball is an escape for most of us so let's enjoy one another.

Any thoughts?

[User Name?]

Wait, you freely admit that you don't actually know more about building a baseball team than the people who get paid to build a baseball team?

I salute you sir.

[marklmw]

Wait, you freely admit that you don't actually know more about building a baseball team than the people who get paid to build a baseball team?

I salute you sir.
You are ok by me UN ... You gave me a different perspective on Ellsbury and Salty. I would love to see Nava and Gomes sharing left next year. JBJ in center, Bogaerts at Short, Middlebrooks at 3rd, Lavarnway and Ross at C, Abreu at 1st but could be Napoli with Carp. Dempster gone and a series bid for a # 1 SP. I want the Sox to shed more payroll because they can. Firm up the pen from within and from without. We should pick up some pics also for their QO's to Salty and Ellsbury so we will replenish the farm. Who would have thought it.

[User Name?]

The only thing i'd do differently is getting a veteran catcher on a short deal (Ruiz?) to man catcher. However, Lavarnway is showing signs of life so maybe he's ready for primetime.

[marklmw]

The only thing i'd do differently is getting a veteran catcher on a short deal (Ruiz?) to man catcher. However, Lavarnway is showing signs of life so maybe he's ready for primetime.

Ruiz would be great for 1 year ... is Ross under a 1 yr. deal?

[marklmw]

The only thing i'd do differently is getting a veteran catcher on a short deal (Ruiz?) to man catcher. However, Lavarnway is showing signs of life so maybe he's ready for primetime.

We would be getter younger and hopefully better. All these younger players will benefit greatly under the leadership of Papi and Pedroia.

[sk7326]

You are ok by me UN ... You gave me a different perspective on Ellsbury and Salty. I would love to see Nava and Gomes sharing left next year. JBJ in center, Bogaerts at Short, Middlebrooks at 3rd, Lavarnway and Ross at C, Abreu at 1st but could be Napoli with Carp. Dempster gone and a series bid for a # 1 SP. I want the Sox to shed more payroll because they can. Firm up the pen from within and from without. We should pick up some pics also for their QO's to Salty and Ellsbury so we will replenish the farm. Who would have thought it.

There are probably 10 "number one" starting pitchers in the league period ... it would be nice to make a serious bid, but we have to be realistic. Ellsbury gets a QO, Napoli probably does and Salty is at least a maybe. Drew is a no.

Dempster can be moved, although if we have to endure him for another season, that's not a bad thing - his durability means that those are 180 innings we don't have to give to guys who legitimately can't pitch. His contract was one of the best of the offseason though - the cost of pitchers whose main skill is not getting hurt is significant and the Red Sox did not have to tie themselves up for years. Somebody should see some value in a guy who still has swing and miss stuff and who never gets hurt - it is hard to get through the marathon without that.

Getting a Choo to man LF would make a lot of sense as would a Beltran. But if you did not want to overextend, the platoon system works just fine. There is no reason Nava-Gomes-Carp-Napoli still can't hold those two positions down credibly next season. Now we probably cannot expect an MVP-ish season from Victorino again, although if he stays a righty, he very well might have more offensive value than could have been projected over the next 2 years.

[Dojji]

The only thing i'd do differently is getting a veteran catcher on a short deal (Ruiz?) to man catcher. However, Lavarnway is showing signs of life so maybe he's ready for primetime.

Lavarnway makes me nervous as a potential backup. I like my backups to be defensively focused, especially when I have an offense-first starting backstop. It might be an "ideal world" thing but it's a pretty good rule of thumb that the backup catcher should be able to sub in and provide high level defense. While I think Lavs is a decent prospect, I think he'd be better off getting lots of reps to keep his bat going. Backup catchers don't get the kind of reps offensively that Lavarnway's going to need to develop his offensive skillset and his defense is... not his strong suit as he's come up the system.

[marklmw]

You are ok by me UN ... You gave me a different perspective on Ellsbury and Salty. I would love to see Nava and Gomes sharing left next year. JBJ in center, Bogaerts at Short, Middlebrooks at 3rd, Lavarnway and Ross at C, Abreu at 1st but could be Napoli with Carp. Dempster gone and a series bid for a # 1 SP. I want the Sox to shed more payroll because they can. Firm up the pen from within and from without. We should pick up some pics also for their QO's to Salty and Ellsbury so we will replenish the farm. Who would have thought it.

Just thought I would defend the 'Todays Flavor' comment. MVP

[jung]

I guess my concern for Dempster is mostly about the direction he was headed in as we got deeper into the year. What will Demps be in 2014? Will he be some version of a 2013 average or was his trend through the year indicative of the aging process and directionally indicative of what we might expect in 2014?

April: ERA 3.30, IP 30, WHIP 1.133, SO/9 12.9
May: ERA 5.51, IP 32.2, WHIP 1.622, SO/9 7.7
June: ERA 3.55, IP 38, WHIP 1.368, SO/9 5.9
July: ERA 4.87, IP 20.1, WHIP 1.82, SO/9 7.1
August: ERA 6.75, IP 30.2, WHIP 1.467, SO/9 7.3
Sept/Oct: ERA 3.20. IP 19.2. WHIP 1.424, SO/9 9.2
Totals: ERA 4.57, IP 171.1, WHIP 1.452, SO/9 8.2

His SO/9 fell off and stayed off after April. His WHIP was decidedly poor after June and June was nothing to wright home about. If he duplicated 2013 in 2014 that would be a fine rotation 5, I think. But if in fact his 2013 performance from July on is indicative of a trend and he just picks up where he left off, then maybe you have a guy you are moving to the pen sooner than you had hoped or....as has been suggested....moving out while picking up part of his salary.

Demps recovered in September but on only 19 innings pitched. Earlier in the season while he had his usual 1st inning problems (usually in the form of a bomb given up), he was able to pull out of it regularly before and had some decent showings. Later in the season, he continued to have early problems but then would really nose dive his way out of a game more often that not.

Would he really be better that Workman in the 5 hole? Would Workman even be ready for the 5 hole?

[sk7326]

I guess my concern for Dempster is mostly about the direction he was headed in as we got deeper into the year. What will Demps be in 2014? Will he be some version of a 2013 average or was his trend through the year indicative of the aging process and directionally indicative of what we might expect in 2014?

April: ERA 3.30, IP 30, WHIP 1.133, SO/9 12.9
May: ERA 5.51, IP 32.2, WHIP 1.622, SO/9 7.7
June: ERA 3.55, IP 38, WHIP 1.368, SO/9 5.9
July: ERA 4.87, IP 20.1, WHIP 1.82, SO/9 7.1
August: ERA 6.75, IP 30.2, WHIP 1.467, SO/9 7.3
Sept/Oct: ERA 3.20. IP 19.2. WHIP 1.424, SO/9 9.2
Totals: ERA 4.57, IP 171.1, WHIP 1.452, SO/9 8.2

His SO/9 fell off and stayed off after April. His WHIP was decidedly poor after June and June was nothing to wright home about. If he duplicated 2013 in 2014 that would be a fine rotation 5, I think. But if in fact his 2013 performance from July on is indicative of a trend and he just picks up where he left off, then maybe you have a guy you are moving to the pen sooner than you had hoped or....as has been suggested....moving out while picking up part of his salary.

Demps recovered in September but on only 19 innings pitched. Earlier in the season while he had his usual 1st inning problems (usually in the form of a bomb given up), he was able to pull out of it regularly before and had some decent showings. Later in the season, he continued to have early problems but then would really nose dive his way out of a game more often that not.

Would he really be better that Workman in the 5 hole? Would Workman even be ready for the 5 hole?

I think that you can argue Workman, no doubt. And if they dealt Dempster to give Workman a job - more power to them. That said, Dempster essentially filled a Tim Wakefield role last season - a guy who doesn't suck that badly and always takes the ball. This is not a great Hallmark card, and you don't want him near any truly nervous spots - but he is absolutely valuable for negotiating the 6-month slog. Dempster's strikeout rate did not have that crazy April level, but it stayed pretty good all season. I am not stumping for Dempster to stay - but he is a depth guy and a sunk cost ... and for a team who needs an innings eater, he can provide it at a salary which is probably inflated but not that much so.

[jung]

Maybe Demps has trouble with the mid-summer heat. If that is the case, then that would suggest at least the possibility of repeating a 2013. I really don't need to see him do more than repeat his totals from 2013 some way or another. If he could do that, he is an OK 5. An average SO/9 for him at a little over 7 is fine. Below 6 is hideous for him especially since his swing and miss stuff is all low in the zone or low out of the zone. If he is not hitting that spot it is bomb city. A SO/9 below 6 would suggest he is up in the zone too much and the rest of his numbers will suffer as well.

[marklmw]

I think that you can argue Workman, no doubt. And if they dealt Dempster to give Workman a job - more power to them. That said, Dempster essentially filled a Tim Wakefield role last season - a guy who doesn't suck that badly and always takes the ball. This is not a great Hallmark card, and you don't want him near any truly nervous spots - but he is absolutely valuable for negotiating the 6-month slog. Dempster's strikeout rate did not have that crazy April level, but it stayed pretty good all season. I am not stumping for Dempster to stay - but he is a depth guy and a sunk cost ... and for a team who needs an innings eater, he can provide it at a salary which is probably inflated but not that much so.

If you can replace Dempster with Workman, dump the higher salary and perhaps pick up a prospect ... sounds attractive to me.

[marklmw]

Now that the posting fee for Tanaka is capped at a reasonable 20M do you think that Boston is still interested? It is not inconceivable that the AVV for Tanaka will be around 15M per. This 15M is in the same neighborhood as Peavy (move for prospects) & Dempster (salary dump). If the Sox can sign Tanaka to a 6 year deal we will have him during his prime years.

1. Lester
2. Buchholz
3. Tanaka
4. Lackey
5. Doubront
6. Workman
7. Webster
8. Owens

[Palodios]

The Red Sox will bid 20 mill for Tanaka. With a talent like that, you need to stick your nose into negotiations. That being said, he won't be available for any less than 7/110 and that is way too much.

[User Name?]

That's if he's even posted.

[marklmw]

The Red Sox will bid 20 mill for Tanaka. With a talent like that, you need to stick your nose into negotiations. That being said, he won't be available for any less than 7/110 and that is way too much.

15.7m per for 7 years would be a good deal ... but then again ... you are saying this is the minimum and you could be right. The Yankees will pay 20M per ... they are that desperate.

[Palodios]

15.7m per for 7 years would be a good deal ... but then again ... you are saying this is the minimum and you could be right. The Yankees will pay 20M per ... they are that desperate.

Adding a max bid of 20M will actually increase the total cost of Tanaka, because all the rich teams will bid to the max, and he'll essentially be treated like a MLB free agent, meaning crazy negotiations. Part of me wonders that it might hurt negotiations for Tanaka to only have a known set number of teams bidding for him... but part of me thinks it will be much easier to create mystery bidders when it is clear which teams are actually interested.

[marklmw]

Adding a max bid of 20M will actually increase the total cost of Tanaka, because all the rich teams will bid to the max, and he'll essentially be treated like a MLB free agent, meaning crazy negotiations. Part of me wonders that it might hurt negotiations for Tanaka to only have a known set number of teams bidding for him... but part of me thinks it will be much easier to create mystery bidders when it is clear which teams are actually interested.
There can be 15+ teams posting just to be part of it ... don't you think?

[sk7326]

The Red Sox will bid 20 mill for Tanaka. With a talent like that, you need to stick your nose into negotiations. That being said, he won't be available for any less than 7/110 and that is way too much.

Well 7/110 for a legit #2 starter is probably a fair-ish price ... not saying I'd do it, but that's possibly less than what Lester will probably command on the market with 4 years age difference.

The revised posting system is good for a lot of parties, but will reduce the NPB incentive to post guys in their prime. Frankly a simple cut of contract value might have been a lot simpler.

[marklmw]

Well 7/110 for a legit #2 starter is probably a fair-ish price ... not saying I'd do it, but that's possibly less than what Lester will probably command on the market with 4 years age difference.

The revised posting system is good for a lot of parties, but will reduce the NPB incentive to post guys in their prime. Frankly a simple cut of contract value might have been a lot simpler.

There is no doubt that new posting system is more fair to the player who has yet to put in his 9 years. I believe that all the teams from NPB endorsed this change and I also believe that their is a sense of pride when one of their players performs well in MLB. This being said it must be a difficult decision for ownership to let a superstar in his prime years leave before his contract is up.

[Palodios]

Well 7/110 for a legit #2 starter is probably a fair-ish price ... not saying I'd do it, but that's possibly less than what Lester will probably command on the market with 4 years age difference.

The revised posting system is good for a lot of parties, but will reduce the NPB incentive to post guys in their prime. Frankly a simple cut of contract value might have been a lot simpler.
7/110 + 20 remember and that's the minimum for a guy who has never thrown a pitch in the majors.

[marklmw]

7/110 + 20 remember and that's the minimum for a guy who has never thrown a pitch in the majors.
The Yankees are not masking their interest in this guy.

[sk7326]

7/110 + 20 remember and that's the minimum for a guy who has never thrown a pitch in the majors.

Well you have to lean on your evaluators as to whether the commitment is worthwhile. At first sniff, I'd say probably not. But the financial commitment (even at 130) for a 25 year old with #2/#3 expectations immediately is not unreasonable at all.

My skepticism with him is the workload to date - he has major questions, as do all of the other starters on the market. But his questions combined with upside make a bit more palatable a combination.

[marklmw]

Well you have to lean on your evaluators as to whether the commitment is worthwhile. At first sniff, I'd say probably not. But the financial commitment (even at 130) for a 25 year old with #2/#3 expectations immediately is not unreasonable at all.

My skepticism with him is the workload to date - he has major questions, as do all of the other starters on the market. But his questions combined with upside make a bit more palatable a combination.

What makes this interesting is how it will affect the FA pitchers who have yet to sign. Seems like they will have to wait on Tanaka.

[reYoukilis]

Matt Albers is available. He did a good job here and kept on doing a good job after he left.

[vjcsmoke]

With a 20m posting fee, that doesn't count against the luxury tax, that is a no-brainer bid for the Red Sox. The only question is, with the Yankees swinging their fat wallet, do we even stand a chance of winning? I think you do due diligence. Bid, negotiate, and see what it takes. Tanaka sounds like he's going to be at least a #2 with upside to be a #1 if his cutter stays filthy at the MLB level with the different ball. The crazy thing about Tanaka? He went undefeated even though he had to throw a 'juiced ball' to NPB batters this past season.

I know a lot of people are saying what about the money... Well, how about the fact you don't need to pay any prospects? David Price is going to cost SOMEBODY the farm with Premium Prospects, AND he will want a big fat contract on top of that!

[marklmw]

With a 20m posting fee, that doesn't count against the luxury tax, that is a no-brainer bid for the Red Sox. The only question is, with the Yankees swinging their fat wallet, do we even stand a chance of winning? I think you do due diligence. Bid, negotiate, and see what it takes. Tanaka sounds like he's going to be at least a #2 with upside to be a #1 if his cutter stays filthy at the MLB level with the different ball. The crazy thing about Tanaka? He went undefeated even though he had to throw a 'juiced ball' to NPB batters this past season.

I know a lot of people are saying what about the money... Well, how about the fact you don't need to pay any prospects? David Price is going to cost SOMEBODY the farm with Premium Prospects, AND he will want a big fat contract on top of that!
Interesting point you make about the 'juiced ball' I was not aware of that. The nice thing about signing Tanaka is that he is young and greatly enhances our ceiling for post season play when the rotation is whittled down. If we sign Tanaka then it will allow us to put Lackey, Peavy and of course Dempster in play.

[Hitch]

Am I right in thinking we are quite close to the wage ceiling?

[marklmw]

Am I right in thinking we are quite close to the wage ceiling?

We call it the Luxury Tax limit ... you can exceed this limit but when you do you are penalized. We are close but we still have the opportunity to chop off some of our payroll via trades. We have some pitchers who are at the minimum pay scale who can replace a pitcher like Dempster who will earn 13M + in 2014.

[SoxSport]

I doubt the Sox are in the market for a starting pitcher. They have 6 or 7 right now, if you include Workman, plus 2 or 3 prospects close in the minors. They are probably looking to finding a taker for Dempster--to free up salary. Maybe even Peavey in the right deal.

[marklmw]

I doubt the Sox are in the market for a starting pitcher. They have 6 or 7 right now, if you include Workman, plus 2 or 3 prospects close in the minors. They are probably looking to finding a taker for Dempster--to free up salary. Maybe even Peavey in the right deal.

Have to look past 2014. We can deal Dempster and Peavy should we sign Tanaka.

[Hitch]

We call it the Luxury Tax limit ... you can exceed this limit but when you do you are penalized. We are close but we still have the opportunity to chop off some of our payroll via trades. We have some pitchers who are at the minimum pay scale who can replace a pitcher like Dempster who will earn 13M + in 2014.

Yeah sorry I went all British there. ;)

Then my next question - how could the Sox possibly get near Tanaka?

I assume that the FO already need to move a starter, to bring back Drew/or another left sided player?

So how do the Sox get Tanaka as well?

And with the rest of the league knowing that the Sox need to trade off a starting pitcher, doesn't that put them at an automatic disadvantage? Never mind needing to trade two, to get in the hunt for Tanaka.

I just don't see how the Red Sox can even contemplate Tanaka for a moment, when they still need another left sided player on the roster.

I may be way off here, but I just can't see how Tanaka is a viable option at all?

Going by this Farrell interview they definitely want to trade one of the starters - http://boston.redsox.mlb.com/news/article/bos/title-in-the-past-boston-manager-john-farrell-focused-on-the-future?ymd=20131209&content_id=64494092

[Bellhorn04]

If Tanaka does get posted I won't be surprised if the Yankees offer him $20 million a year. The $20 million posting fee is a bargain for them - it'll be a lot less than the luxury tax they would pay if they signed a free agent pitcher for $20 million a year.

[Emmz]

Is he THAT good? Honestly, he's like 5'9, and how many successful pitchers are under 6 feet tall?

[User Name?]

He isn't. He's clearly not nearly as good as Darvish. I don't see what all the fuss is about, and it's not about his size. He's bigger than Pedro. It's about stuff (of lack thereof)

[Emmz]

He isn't. He's clearly not nearly as good as Darvish. I don't see what all the fuss is about, and it's not about his size. He's bigger than Pedro. It's about stuff (of lack thereof)

It is about size though, most pitchers are 6'2 or higher, and it's because you're at an advantage.

Not that it isn't about his stuff, I just immediately pass on most short pitchers unless they have outstanding pitches and can throw them 100 times a game and be consistent. Haven't seen much of him, certainly not enough to assess his "stuff", but the first thing that crossed my mind was that he's short.

[User Name?]

It is about size though, most pitchers are 6'2 or higher, and it's because you're at an advantage.

Not that it isn't about his stuff, I just immediately pass on most short pitchers unless they have outstanding pitches and can throw them 100 times a game and be consistent. Haven't seen much of him, certainly not enough to assess his "stuff", but the first thing that crossed my mind was that he's short.

If you have elite stuff, size isn't all that important, as Pedro Martinez, Tim Lincecum and Tim Hudson have shown. The problem is that Tanaka doesn't have elite stuff, per all accounts. What's really impacted by size in pitchers is durability, and that's just another point against Tanaka.

[Emmz]

It is about size though, most pitchers are 6'2 or higher, and it's because you're at an advantage.

Not that it isn't about his stuff, I just immediately pass on most short pitchers unless they have outstanding pitches and can throw them 100 times a game and be consistent. Haven't seen much of him, certainly not enough to assess his "stuff", but the first thing that crossed my mind was that he's short.

I guess he's 6'2, just googled it.

[User Name?]

I thought he was 6'0.

[User Name?]

You're right, he's 1.88 meters.

[Emmz]

Saw video on MLBN a few days ago and I thought he was short. Apparently he's just stout.

Oh well.

[marklmw]

If you have elite stuff, size isn't all that important, as Pedro Martinez, Tim Lincecum and Tim Hudson have shown. The problem is that Tanaka doesn't have elite stuff, per all accounts. What's really impacted by size in pitchers is durability, and that's just another point against Tanaka.

Again, where are you getting your information from? Tanaka has a sick splitter.

[marklmw]

Yeah sorry I went all British there. ;)

Then my next question - how could the Sox possibly get near Tanaka?

I assume that the FO already need to move a starter, to bring back Drew/or another left sided player?

So how do the Sox get Tanaka as well?

And with the rest of the league knowing that the Sox need to trade off a starting pitcher, doesn't that put them at an automatic disadvantage? Never mind needing to trade two, to get in the hunt for Tanaka.

I just don't see how the Red Sox can even contemplate Tanaka for a moment, when they still need another left sided player on the roster.

I may be way off here, but I just can't see how Tanaka is a viable option at all?

Going by this Farrell interview they definitely want to trade one of the starters - http://boston.redsox.mlb.com/news/article/bos/title-in-the-past-boston-manager-john-farrell-focused-on-the-future?ymd=20131209&content_id=64494092

IMO the Sox are going to deal Dempster should we sign Tanaka or not. Dempster may not return to use any noteworthy prospects but moving him could save us 10M in payroll for 2014. (assuming we eat 3M of his contract). If we do sign Tanaka there will be plenty of teams who feel that they will contend in 2014 and would be very interested in Peavy as a #3 so we should get a decent prospect in return.

[marklmw]

In 2014 Which combination of SP's would you rather have:

Option 1. Peavy & Dempster ( @ approx.29M)
Option 2. Tanaka & Workman (@ approx. 23M) plus prospects from dealing Peavy & eating 3M of Dempster's contract
Option 3. Peavy & Workman (@ approx.19M ) eating 3M of Dempster's contract.

I choose Option 2. and the Sox can make this happen. Even if the Sox do not come away with Tanaka the least they can do is drive up the cost to the Yankees.

[sk7326]

With a 20m posting fee, that doesn't count against the luxury tax, that is a no-brainer bid for the Red Sox. The only question is, with the Yankees swinging their fat wallet, do we even stand a chance of winning? I think you do due diligence. Bid, negotiate, and see what it takes. Tanaka sounds like he's going to be at least a #2 with upside to be a #1 if his cutter stays filthy at the MLB level with the different ball. The crazy thing about Tanaka? He went undefeated even though he had to throw a 'juiced ball' to NPB batters this past season.

I know a lot of people are saying what about the money... Well, how about the fact you don't need to pay any prospects? David Price is going to cost SOMEBODY the farm with Premium Prospects, AND he will want a big fat contract on top of that!

1. Friends don't let friends use pitcher wins.
2. He is a strikethrower has at least one or two big league pitches. He also improved his approach to something more American i.e. pitch to contact. He is by all acclaim not in the ballpark of Darvish as a free agent. But very very few are, so that is not any sort of dig.
3. His age and #2 potential are very enticing. The workload he has had to date require some skepticism.

[SoxSport]

Tanaka may be going nowhere this year. Rakuten thinks the posting fee is too low.

[Palodios]

Read an article on mlbtraderumors that said several things I have been thinking. The Red Sox benefit greatly if Tanaka isn't posted. The Yankees get stuck with Ervin or Garza for 90-100 million. Neither of those guys even replace Pettite.

It also makes Dempster look like a steal at 13 million and more teams may get desperate-- especially with teams like the Twins overpaying for starters left and right and Scherzer and possibly Price staying put.

[seabeachfred]

Read an article on mlbtraderumors that said several things I have been thinking. The Red Sox benefit greatly if Tanaka isn't posted. The Yankees get stuck with Ervin or Garza for 90-100 million. Neither of those guys even replace Pettite.

It also makes Dempster look like a steal at 13 million and more teams may get desperate-- especially with teams like the Twins overpaying for starters left and right and Scherzer and possibly Price staying put.

I keep wondering Pal when the Tanaka posting, yes or no, will be adjudicated? Is there a time limit as to when it has to happen? We all know that the Red Sox will not be in on bidding for him if he is posted but as you said, if he isn't it works to our advantage since the Yankee alternatives will not be as good and still very costly.

[sk7326]

Tanaka may be going nowhere this year. Rakuten thinks the posting fee is too low.

Not surprising. This is the problem with the new arrangement (which has not been officially announced). The whole idea of the auction was to compensate a team who was giving up an important asset (both on the field and in the box office). Giving up a 25 year old pitcher who went unbeaten last season (and the control that comes with it) should be worth more than $20M. This happens all the time in club soccer. If they just tied the posting fee to the contract he agreed to, that would be a lot simpler.

[marklmw]

Read an article on mlbtraderumors that said several things I have been thinking. The Red Sox benefit greatly if Tanaka isn't posted. The Yankees get stuck with Ervin or Garza for 90-100 million. Neither of those guys even replace Pettite.

It also makes Dempster look like a steal at 13 million and more teams may get desperate-- especially with teams like the Twins overpaying for starters left and right and Scherzer and possibly Price staying put.
Yeah .... it would be perfect if Tanaka were posted next year rather than now. Of course it probably makes the most sense for Tanaka to remain where he is from an ownership standpoint.

[Palodios]

Yeah .... it would be perfect if Tanaka were posted next year rather than now. Of course it probably makes the most sense for Tanaka to remain where he is from an ownership standpoint.

Actually, you're completely right. The Red Sox will be losing Dempster and Peavy, Lackey's salary and possibly Lester though he seems like he wants to stick around. Dempster, Peavy and Lackey's combined salary would be 43 million, plenty to put back into the rotation. Maybe owners will cool down a bit after one year away from huge spending and tv revenue. Look at the possible 2015 Rotation

Lester
Lackey
Buchholz
Tanaka
Doubront

Owens/Barnes/Ranaudo/Webster will also go a long way in Pawtucket I'd imagine.

[vjcsmoke]

Saw video on MLBN a few days ago and I thought he was short. Apparently he's just stout.

Oh well.

Tanaka is 6'2 200 lbs. Size is not an issue. The issue is whether or not his team will even post him now that the posting fee has been capped to only 20m dollars. There is a lot less financial incentive for Japanese teams to let their stars go early now. Tanaka is in his prime now at age 25.

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1861216-how-masahiro-tanakas-stuff-will-play-against-mlb-hitters


Read an article on mlbtraderumors that said several things I have been thinking. The Red Sox benefit greatly if Tanaka isn't posted. The Yankees get stuck with Ervin or Garza for 90-100 million. Neither of those guys even replace Pettite.

It also makes Dempster look like a steal at 13 million and more teams may get desperate-- especially with teams like the Twins overpaying for starters left and right and Scherzer and possibly Price staying put.

Yup, the Yankees will be in big trouble if they have to wait another year. They can't, they have holes right now and they will likely have to sign /overpay another free agent that might not be as skilled.

[Bellhorn04]

Tanaka is 6'2 200 lbs. Size is not an issue. The issue is whether or not his team will even post him now that the posting fee has been capped to only 20m dollars. There is a lot less financial incentive for Japanese teams to let their stars go early now. Tanaka is in his prime now at age 25.

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1861216-how-masahiro-tanakas-stuff-will-play-against-mlb-hitters

Yup, the Yankees will be in big trouble if they have to wait another year. They can't, they have holes right now and they will likely have to sign /overpay another free agent that might not be as skilled.

If there's no Tanaka, the Yankees will pick up a couple of decent starters somehow - salary dumps, whatever. They are obviously going to continue to be busy beavers this offseason.

[sk7326]

For this to be a fair posting agreement, you'd think something like $20M + 10% of total negotiated contract value might have been a fairer compromise.

[marklmw]

For this to be a fair posting agreement, you'd think something like $20M + 10% of total negotiated contract value might have been a fairer compromise.

That does seem a lot more fair ... where does the 10% come from however ... the players contract or would it be paid directly to the ownership on top of the players actual contract?

[marklmw]

Actually, you're completely right. The Red Sox will be losing Dempster and Peavy, Lackey's salary and possibly Lester though he seems like he wants to stick around. Dempster, Peavy and Lackey's combined salary would be 43 million, plenty to put back into the rotation. Maybe owners will cool down a bit after one year away from huge spending and tv revenue. Look at the possible 2015 Rotation

Lester
Lackey
Buchholz
Tanaka
Doubront

Owens/Barnes/Ranaudo/Webster will also go a long way in Pawtucket I'd imagine.

Let's say that Tanaka is posted this year for season 2014. Is it not worth grabbing him now so that we have him in seasons 2015 - 2020? We can always manage to trade Peavy and Dempster before opening day.

[vjcsmoke]

Let's say that Tanaka is posted this year for season 2014. Is it not worth grabbing him now so that we have him in seasons 2015 - 2020? We can always manage to trade Peavy and Dempster before opening day.

The problem is that if he is posted this year, we have to compete with the Yankees. If he is posted in 2014, they may already have the salary slotted for pitchers that they signed in the free agent market. So the Red Sox would have a better shot with the salaries of Dempster and company coming off the books.

As for the posting system its going to need some kind of tweaking in the future that may involve some kind of bonus or percentage based on the size of player contract. Because if you're the Fukuoka Eagles, do you take the 20 million, or do you pass and compete for another Championship next year? The Eagles may have been reluctant to post Tanaka before, but the promise of a 50m dollar cash injection surely would have given them an attractive incentive to let Tanaka pursue a career in America. Now, not so much!

Think about it, right now, there's no top team in MLB that needs starting pitching who wouldn't pay 20m plus contract for Tanaka. Especially with the new TV deal going through. That mean's it's probably too good a deal on the American side of the ocean.

[Behindenemylines]

I get the feeling after what the Sox went though with Dice K they are going to shy away from Tanaka. They use the excuse that they are heavy with SP and the need is not there. Plus the $pankees need for SP will make them go pretty hard for him. If he is posted it would surprise me if the $pankees don't sign him.

[Palodios]

I get the feeling after what the Sox went though with Dice K they are going to shy away from Tanaka. They use the excuse that they are heavy with SP and the need is not there. Plus the $pankees need for SP will make them go pretty hard for him. If he is posted it would surprise me if the $pankees don't sign him.

If Tanaka is posted in 2013, I completely agree with you. If he is posted in 2014, he is a very good fit for the Red Sox.

[Bellhorn04]

If Tanaka is posted in 2013, I completely agree with you. If he is posted in 2014, he is a very good fit for the Red Sox.

He'll be even more of a fit for the Yankees next year after their rotation sucks historically this year. :D

[Palodios]

He'll be even more of a fit for the Yankees next year after their rotation sucks historically this year. :D

They're going to add another arm this year, and I have a hunch that their young pitching might have a good year in 2011. Their real concern for them after 2014 is going to be replacing Jeter and Robertson in an already weak infield and bullpen.

[SoxSport]

No more Dice-Ks, please. Plus they aren't in a big spending mode right now. Don't have to be. They just bought time to gamble on the kids. Their next championship will be because those kids worked out--not because they bought a lot of players.

[sk7326]

No more Dice-Ks, please. Plus they aren't in a big spending mode right now. Don't have to be. They just bought time to gamble on the kids. Their next championship will be because those kids worked out--not because they bought a lot of players.

Dice-K did not work out but it was the sort of evaluation that made sense. 6 years of control of a 26 year old with a strong track record? Yes please. Of course, his unwillingness to change his approach for the US killed him. At least Tanaka has flashed from scouting reports more American approach a la Darvish. It's a plus.

I tend to look at front office moves as 1) genuinely bad, 2) defensible, 3) genuinely good ... categories #2 and #3 can still have bad results. You can't predict the future, but if you are making percentage plays, you can only get so mad at a front office. (it's why the Gonzalez trade does not fill me with anger or anything)

[marklmw]

Dice-K did not work out but it was the sort of evaluation that made sense. 6 years of control of a 26 year old with a strong track record? Yes please. Of course, his unwillingness to change his approach for the US killed him. At least Tanaka has flashed from scouting reports more American approach a la Darvish. It's a plus.

I tend to look at front office moves as 1) genuinely bad, 2) defensible, 3) genuinely good ... categories #2 and #3 can still have bad results. You can't predict the future, but if you are making percentage plays, you can only get so mad at a front office. (it's why the Gonzalez trade does not fill me with anger or anything)

SK ... you make such good sense that I am taking you as my 2nd overall pick in this years draft.

[vjcsmoke]

No more Dice-Ks, please. Plus they aren't in a big spending mode right now. Don't have to be. They just bought time to gamble on the kids. Their next championship will be because those kids worked out--not because they bought a lot of players.

Of course we don't want another Matsuzaka. But Tanaka is a different type of pitcher. Imagine if we could get Uehara at age 25, when he was still a frontline starting pitcher, for example? In any case, there's always some risk potential when signing a free agent. and not just a Japanese free agent, any of them. You could be getting the next Yu Darvish or you could be getting the next Kei Igawa. Who knows. However we do know that the risk is more affordable with the posting fee now being capped.

In any case the Yankee will be all in once Tanaka is posted. I guess all we can do is drive up the price. But the Dodgers and Mariners will likely be driving up the market already. I think if Tanaka comes out this year, there is much less chance of us bidding him up. But if he gets posted the following season, after Dempster, Lackey, etc. go off the books, then he becomes a great fit for us.

[sk7326]

Of course we don't want another Matsuzaka. But Tanaka is a different type of pitcher. Imagine if we could get Uehara at age 25, when he was still a frontline starting pitcher, for example? In any case, there's always some risk potential when signing a free agent. and not just a Japanese free agent, any of them. You could be getting the next Yu Darvish or you could be getting the next Kei Igawa. Who knows. However we do know that the risk is more affordable with the posting fee now being capped.

In any case the Yankee will be all in once Tanaka is posted. I guess all we can do is drive up the price. But the Dodgers and Mariners will likely be driving up the market already. I think if Tanaka comes out this year, there is much less chance of us bidding him up. But if he gets posted the following season, after Dempster, Lackey, etc. go off the books, then he becomes a great fit for us.

He's almost certainly not Darvish - but a Kuroda peak ain't shabby. The posting fee will be a non-issue. A lot more teams will be in on this, just a matter of where he wants to go.

[SoxSport]

Chances are a west coast team, Seattle or the LA teams, will get Tanaka, because are a lot of Asian Americans on the west coast who are baseball fans. The Yankees will probably get outbid. I doubt the Red Sox are a serious player. Their pitching looks pretty good.

[Spitball]

Tanaka comes down to the Yankees. If they want him, I believe they will get him. It really sucks because Bud Selig has decided to suspend Alex Rodriguez. His decision gives the Yankees the salary relief they need to sign the best available players to outlandish salaries and drive up salaries throughout the game.

I believe Selig has conspired to return the Yankees to contention, but has been bad, bad for baseball.

[Palodios]

I still don't understand what good Selig has done for the game. He's turned the sport into a mockery, ticket prices have skyrocketed, there are several stadium fiasco going on right now, and teams like the Marlins and Astros still exist. Inbalance has been pretty crazy league-wide, and the sport is losing market-share very quickly.

[jacksonianmarch]

Not really sure what you're talking about. Selig is a businessman, and while he's made it harder for the average family of 4 to attend a game, he has increased the revenue of his constituents as commissioner. That's his job. His double standard on PEDs is a major stain on his record and if anything, he's made it possible for teams like the Marlins and Astros to stay relevant by instituting revenue sharing and a luxury tax. Selig has been bad for the average fan, but he's been great for the owners and the players in terms of bottom line. Also, while baseball may have been losing market share in the past, you're starting to see a shift in the American population going away from football and to baseball. 2013 was the first year where Pop Warner enrollment has gone down, and with the whole concussion issue, I expect baseball to indirectly benefit. Also, the expansion of baseball to include he entire globe has helped talent influx immensely. So, in the end, Selig has been great for the MLB, but not so great for you and I

[SoxFanForsyth]

Multiple reports out that Tanaka will not be posted.

This hurts the Yankees. A lot.

[mvp 78]

Garza to the Yanks?

[Palodios]

The Eagles planning to offer Tanaka a NPB record-setting offer to stay in Japan.


"If the team tells me, 'We're not going to post you. Please stay,' the professional thing to do is give it your all and get back to pitching," Tanaka told reporters this week. "I'm ready to do that."

The Red Sox will be in a much better position to bid for him next year. The trade market for Dempster will also improve quite a bit -- reports seem to say that they want to trade either him or Peavy. I expect atleast one of Garza/Arroyo/Santana to sign in the next 24 hours.

[reYoukilis]

But how much of that was Selig vs luck? Did he have alot to do with getting people to like baseball? I got into baseball because I got tired of football and basketball's BS, like all the chest thumping. Im sure Im not the only one. To me Selig is merely the guy who made the stupidest rule in all of sports in that the winner of the allstar game gets home field advantage. The Rangers, my second favorite team, has been screwed by that rule twice. And I also don't like Selig because he probably encouraged PED use and now is acting like its such a terrible thing.

[SoxFanForsyth]

The Eagles planning to offer Tanaka a NPB record-setting offer to stay in Japan.



The Red Sox will be in a much better position to bid for him next year. The trade market for Dempster will also improve quite a bit -- reports seem to say that they want to trade either him or Peavy. I expect atleast one of Garza/Arroyo/Santana to sign in the next 24 hours.

The Sox will also have a much better idea of what to expect from guys like Ranaudo, Barnes, Webster, Workman, Hinojosa, and even Owens going forward, so they'll be able to adjust how much they want to invest in a guy like Tanaka.

[Palodios]

The Sox will also have a much better idea of what to expect from guys like Ranaudo, Barnes, Webster, Workman, Hinojosa, and even Owens going forward, so they'll be able to adjust how much they want to invest in a guy like Tanaka.

Right now, the most expensive part of the team is their starting pitching. Next year, they lose Lackey's 16 mill, Peavy's 14 mill, Dempster's 13 mill, and maybe Lester's 12 million. Tanaka is the logical place for them to re-invest, even if they see major strides from the young arms.

[dupree]

Hahaha Im glad Tanaka stays in Japan for one more year. Anything that screws up the Yanks plans makes by day. Id say today and tomorrow will be fast and furious with signings and trades for starting pitchers. I just hope someone takes Dempster off our hands. And then that money gets relocated into the salary of a power OF bat and not into the salary of Stephan Drew.

[SoxSport]

Hahaha Im glad Tanaka stays in Japan for one more year. Anything that screws up the Yanks plans makes by day. Id say today and tomorrow will be fast and furious with signings and trades for starting pitchers. I just hope someone takes Dempster off our hands. And then that money gets relocated into the salary of a power OF bat and not into the salary of Stephan Drew.

No doubt good for the Red Sox. Bad for the Yankees. Getting Dempster back to the NL would seem to be almost a priority.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Right now, the most expensive part of the team is their starting pitching. Next year, they lose Lackey's 16 mill, Peavy's 14 mill, Dempster's 13 mill, and maybe Lester's 12 million. Tanaka is the logical place for them to re-invest, even if they see major strides from the young arms.

I assume they will extend Lester, though, at probably 5/90-100. They'll lose 15.5 of Lackey, and Peavy is actually 16.5, not 14. Plus Dempster's 13, so they'll lose (including Lester's $12) $57mm off the books, add $18-20mm, so they'll have ~37-39mm to play with and really have no position players to replace. I would assume the rotation would be something like Lester Buchholz Doubront, and then two of Barnes, Ranaudo, Workman, Owens, Webster. But again, you go get Tanaka, and you can probably dish a few of those prospects for a big bat in LF.

This obviously isn't even counting the loss of Pierzynski, Ross, & Gomes (~18mm), two of whom can be replaced internally with Brentz and Vazquez, and then sign a backup C.

The Sox will have a ton of payroll flexibility going into the 2015 season. And there are some very intriguing names hitting free agency. Clayton Kershaw, Justin Masterson, James Shields, potentially Tanaka (give me Kershaw, plz)

[Bellhorn04]

Multiple reports out that Tanaka will not be posted.

This hurts the Yankees. A lot.

Now the cherry on the sundae will be if A-Rod gets his suspension overturned or reduced. :D

[redsoxrules]

Tanaka will not be posted

[Spitball]

When he is posted, I imagine Tanaka will sign a ridiculously high priced contract for a bunch of years. I just hope it isn't with the Red Sox.

Tanaka is apparently an amazing 24 year-old pitcher with a great arsenal of pitches. He is coming off a 24-0 season. Statistically, he was even better in 2011. He seems like a great pitcher, but at what price?

If he signs a Cliff Lee-like contract or greater, I'd rather the Red Sox pass. They don't need any monster long term contracts on pitchers or anyone else.

Besides the fact Tanaka would bring a distracting sideshow of press form America and Japan, the kid has already pitched a lot of baseball at an early age. He has pitched over 1300 innings and has over 50 complete games. His k/9 rate was below 8.0 for only the second time in his career last season. These numbers might not mean a thing, but they may if the Sox are about to sink a lot of money and years into a pitcher.









There will be ridiculous dollars thrown at the guy.

[rjortiz]

The Eagles planning to offer Tanaka a NPB record-setting offer to stay in Japan.



The Red Sox will be in a much better position to bid for him next year. The trade market for Dempster will also improve quite a bit -- reports seem to say that they want to trade either him or Peavy. I expect atleast one of Garza/Arroyo/Santana to sign in the next 24 hours.

I'm guessing Arroyo, Santana, and Garza are waiting for a Tanaka decision before they sign.

[vjcsmoke]

The Sox will have a ton of payroll flexibility going into the 2015 season. And there are some very intriguing names hitting free agency. Clayton Kershaw, Justin Masterson, James Shields, potentially Tanaka (give me Kershaw, plz)

Would love Kershaw but the Dodgers would be stupid to let him go. And the current Dodgers LOVE to spend. So I don't see us landing him.

Masterson is a sinkerballer who I don't see playing that well in Fenway. He's a #2/3 type pitcher anyways. We traded him away for a reason.
Shields... is an innings eater but his numbers have been getting worse each year.

The thing about NPB pitchers is that although they throw a lot of innings per game, they play much fewer games total than the Majors. And Tanaka is 6 years younger than Shields. I think he's still young enough that his total IP is not a worry for me. I think it's good that:

1. The Yankees are denied a chance to get him for one year.
2. The Red Sox will have a shot at him with a LOT of money coming off their payroll.
3. We get to see more 'work product' to make up our minds, is this guy a #2 or could he potentially become a staff anchor.

I think Tanaka is going to be the best free agent option in 2015, at age 26, assuming that Kershaw is extended longterm by the Dodgers before he gets there.

[rjortiz]

Why is everyone acting like Tanaka will be available in 2015? He's going to be posted.

EDIT* Didn't see the USA Today report. Another huge blow to the Yankees.

[rjortiz]

I believe Selig has conspired to return the Yankees to contention, but has been bad, bad for baseball.

Did you forget to add "don't" between I and Selig? If this is his grand conspiracy to return the Yankees to contention it sucks.

[a700hitter]

Did you forget to add "don't" between I and Selig? If this is his grand conspiracy to return the Yankees to contention it sucks.
While I don't believe that there has been any conspiracy, the rest of baseball wants the Yankees to be competitive, because they bring profits to the whole league when they have good teams. It makes me sick, but I believe that to be true.

[Palodios]

While I don't believe that there has been any conspiracy, the rest of baseball wants the Yankees to be competitive, because they bring profits to the whole league when they have good teams. It makes me sick, but I believe that to be true.

You know what would be even better for the league? The other big money cities to have good teams. The Yankees already have a fanbase... but a Cubs or Mets World Series would do much bigger things for the game. What value would another Yankee World Series have for the game? It'll just annoy the other teams, and the same annoying Yankee fans would avoid watching the playoffs till the championship series, and be mildly entertained when they win, because it has become such a novelty for them.

[mvp 78]

That subway series with the Mets sure did a lot for MLB!

The Cubs are a better storyline by not winning.

[vjcsmoke]

Seriously. I don't think the Yankees winning is 'good for baseball'. It's good for the Yankees. What makes playoff baseball compelling, is not that you see the same old teams, but rather the storylines that develop for the teams that make it. Would I like to see the Cubs in the World Series? That would get hyped like crazy. I don't think they will, but that's just an example.

Using our team as an example - it was the Last to First story. And it was Boston Strong. I think the Boston Red Sox winning the World Series this past season was GREAT for baseball. A much stronger storyline than, oh btw Yankees make it to the Series for the Umpteenth time. But regardless of how good the 'story' is, bottom line we DID have the BEST TEAM in baseball. Our guys played their hearts out and earned that championship by winning against the best and most talented opponents surviving in the playoffs this year.

[a700hitter]

You know what would be even better for the league? The other big money cities to have good teams. The Yankees already have a fanbase... but a Cubs or Mets World Series would do much bigger things for the game. What value would another Yankee World Series have for the game? It'll just annoy the other teams, and the same annoying Yankee fans would avoid watching the playoffs till the championship series, and be mildly entertained when they win, because it has become such a novelty for them.I wasn't talking about TV ratings in the post season. Baseball as a whole prefers the Yankees to be competitive with big stars, because they put fannies in the seats in small market parks like Tampa, KC, Baltimore etc. When the Yankees come to town, those owners fill their pockets. If they Yankees suck and have no stars (like 2013), it hurts the other teams' attendance.

[Palodios]

I wasn't talking about TV ratings in the post season. Baseball as a whole prefers the Yankees to be competitive with big stars, because they put fannies in the seats in small market parks like Tampa, KC, Baltimore etc. When the Yankees come to town, those owners fill their pockets. If they Yankees suck and have no stars (like 2013), it hurts the other teams' attendance.

But the same thing happens for the Red Sox. How many times have we called Baltimore's stadium "Red Sox South" or said "We'll see you in the playoffs for our home games in Tampa" ? When the Cubs played the Red Sox at Fenway, those were premium games with packed stadiums. We'll see the same effect if the Mets or Cubs were actually good teams.

[redsoxrules]

Would love Kershaw but the Dodgers would be stupid to let him go. And the current Dodgers LOVE to spend. So I don't see us landing him.

Masterson is a sinkerballer who I don't see playing that well in Fenway. He's a #2/3 type pitcher anyways. We traded him away for a reason.
Shields... is an innings eater but his numbers have been getting worse each year.

The thing about NPB pitchers is that although they throw a lot of innings per game, they play much fewer games total than the Majors. And Tanaka is 6 years younger than Shields. I think he's still young enough that his total IP is not a worry for me. I think it's good that:

1. The Yankees are denied a chance to get him for one year.
2. The Red Sox will have a shot at him with a LOT of money coming off their payroll.
3. We get to see more 'work product' to make up our minds, is this guy a #2 or could he potentially become a staff anchor.

I think Tanaka is going to be the best free agent option in 2015, at age 26, assuming that Kershaw is extended longterm by the Dodgers before he gets there.

Kershaw declined a 300M extension. Reason being he's not sure he wants to stay in LA.
Regardless, the Red Sox have never given a pitcher a 100M contract so don't expect to land Kershaw

[mvp 78]

I wasn't talking about TV ratings in the post season. Baseball as a whole prefers the Yankees to be competitive with big stars, because they put fannies in the seats in small market parks like Tampa, KC, Baltimore etc. When the Yankees come to town, those owners fill their pockets. If they Yankees suck and have no stars (like 2013), it hurts the other teams' attendance.
The teams that saw the biggest attendence decline were Miami and Philly, 600k and 500k respectively. Neither decline is attributable to the Yanks. In fact, excluding those two teams, MLB's attendence increased when compared to 2012.

Baltimore and KC both saw increased attendence in 2013. Tampa's decrease was less than 50k.

[a700hitter]

But the same thing happens for the Red Sox. How many times have we called Baltimore's stadium "Red Sox South" or said "We'll see you in the playoffs for our home games in Tampa" ? When the Cubs played the Red Sox at Fenway, those were premium games with packed stadiums. We'll see the same effect if the Mets or Cubs were actually good teams.Like I said, the thought that baseball wants the Yankees to be good sickens me, but IMO that is true. When the Red Sox or Cubs are good their fans travel around to see them and they have fans in every part of the country. When the Yankees are good, especialy when they have some top controversial stars, people who hate them in these other cities come out to watch them. Again, this is just my opinion, but I have read similar opinions from writers throughout the years. Throughout the years, the Yankees have gotten away with a lot of shenanigans where baseball looked the other way to keep the competitve scales tilted in favor of the Yankees. Prior to the days of free agency, the Yankees used teams like the Phillies and the KC A's as farm systems. They were constantly poaching their players for a few bucks under the table.

[a700hitter]

The teams that saw the biggest attendence decline were Miami and Philly, 600k and 500k respectively. Neither decline is attributable to the Yanks. In fact, excluding those two teams, MLB's attendence increased when compared to 2012.

Baltimore and KC both saw increased attendence in 2013. Tampa's decrease was less than 50k.What I stated was an opinion. If you want to debunk an opinion, do a better job than some cherry picked stats. How about a three year analysis of attendance at visiting ballparks for the dates when the Yankees were in town-- or something with some statistical validity. Better yet, put me back on ignore. Things worked better that way

[mvp 78]

What I stated was an opinion. If you want to debunk an opinion, do a better job than some cherry picked stats. How about a three year analysis of attendance at visiting ballparks for the dates when the Yankees were in town-- or something with some statistical validity. Better yet, put me back on ignore. Things worked better that way

All this basically says is "when presented with facts that don't agree with my argument, I lash out."

Why don't you go back to your 40 year old point about the Yanks poaching teams before FA. Now that's a timely discussion!

[a700hitter]

All this basically says is "when presented with facts that don't agree with my argument, I lash out."

Why don't you go back to your 40 year old point about the Yanks poaching teams before FA. Now that's a timely discussion!I just don't want to leave any doubt about my intentions to engage you on any topic. Your constant snarky broad based mean-spirited attacks aimed at TalkSox members has made you toxic as far as I am concerned. I'll not validate any of your opinions or discussions by engaging with you. Merry Christmas.

[Palodios]

Like I said, the thought that baseball wants the Yankees to be good sickens me, but IMO that is true. When the Red Sox or Cubs are good their fans travel around to see them and they have fans in every part of the country. When the Yankees are good, especialy when they have some top controversial stars, people who hate them in these other cities come out to watch them. Again, this is just my opinion, but I have read similar opinions from writers throughout the years. Throughout the years, the Yankees have gotten away with a lot of shenanigans where baseball looked the other way to keep the competitve scales tilted in favor of the Yankees. Prior to the days of free agency, the Yankees used teams like the Phillies and the KC A's as farm systems. They were constantly poaching their players for a few bucks under the table.

I think the scale has tilted away from them though. They have a big financial advantage, but not nearly as monstrous an advantage as it was even 5-10 years ago. They used to be the premier team, but in a few years from now, are they going to be any different from the Celtics? Storied winners of the past leading their sport in titles, but in 5 years from now, who knows, maybe the reckless spending catches up with them, and they become like the Celtics of the 90s and early 2000s.

[vjcsmoke]

Kershaw declined a 300M extension. Reason being he's not sure he wants to stay in LA.
Regardless, the Red Sox have never given a pitcher a 100M contract so don't expect to land Kershaw

I don't see us even close to a matching a 300m dollar offer. LOL. So, no Kershaw to the Sox.

But if the Yankees go crazy after missing out on Tanaka, maybe they say the hell with the luxury tax and offer Kershaw 350m. That would be the end of sanity. But it wouldn't surprise me if the Stankees were backed into a corner, this is just the type of move they could make to 'buy themselves' back into contention.

PS I think anyone would be crazy to turn down 300m dollars unless they have an ironclad secret agreement with another team in hand for significantly more dollars.

[a700hitter]

I think the scale has tilted away from them though. They have a big financial advantage, but not nearly as monstrous an advantage as it was even 5-10 years ago. They used to be the premier team, but in a few years from now, are they going to be any different from the Celtics? Storied winners of the past leading their sport in titles, but in 5 years from now, who knows, maybe the reckless spending catches up with them, and they become like the Celtics of the 90s and early 2000s.I agreee with you on that. Actually, I think the scale has been gradually tilting away from them for decades. I would mark the beginning of that at about the time that Joe Cronin became league president. I think that was in the 60's. The scale tilted back in the 70's with free agency. That was due to economics and market size as opposed to any rigging of the system. I don't think that there has been any systemic unfairness favoring the Yankees in a long time. However, I firmly belilieve think that there was something shady with the series of deals that Gabe Paul pulled off with his former Indian team.

[a700hitter]

I don't see us even close to a matching a 300m dollar offer. LOL. So, no Kershaw to the Sox.

But if the Yankees go crazy after missing out on Tanaka, maybe they say the hell with the luxury tax and offer Kershaw 350m. That would be the end of sanity. But it wouldn't surprise me if the Stankees were backed into a corner, this is just the type they could make to 'buy themselves' back into contention.

PS I think anyone would be crazy to turn down 300m dollars unless they have a 'wink wink' agreement with another team in pocket for significantly more dollars.Even if he is the next Sandy Koufax, he's not worth it. Remember, that Koufax lasted only until age 31.

[redsoxrules]

I don't see us even close to a matching a 300m dollar offer. LOL. So, no Kershaw to the Sox.

But if the Yankees go crazy after missing out on Tanaka, maybe they say the hell with the luxury tax and offer Kershaw 350m. That would be the end of sanity. But it wouldn't surprise me if the Stankees were backed into a corner, this is just the type of move they could make to 'buy themselves' back into contention.

PS I think anyone would be crazy to turn down 300m dollars unless they have an ironclad secret agreement with another team in hand for significantly more dollars.

Yeah, that's pretty shocking he declined that. He obviously will not get more. He must not want to play for LA

[mvp 78]

I just don't want to leave any doubt about my intentions to engage you on any topic. Your constant snarky broad based mean-spirited attacks aimed at TalkSox members has made you toxic as far as I am concerned. I'll not validate any of your opinions or discussions by engaging with you. Merry Christmas.

Delicious delicious irony.

[a700hitter]

Delicious delicious irony.Chew on it.

[seabeachfred]

That subway series with the Mets sure did a lot for MLB!

The Cubs are a better storyline by not winning.

I'm not so sure about that anymore. I think if the Cubs got into a World Series all of baseball would rejoice---and I know the perfect opponent for them. You can guess who I'm talking about but it should be a slam dunk. Two classic franchises in the two classic ballparks. That would do a lot for baseball IMHO.

[seabeachfred]

Seriously. I don't think the Yankees winning is 'good for baseball'. It's good for the Yankees. What makes playoff baseball compelling, is not that you see the same old teams, but rather the storylines that develop for the teams that make it. Would I like to see the Cubs in the World Series? That would get hyped like crazy. I don't think they will, but that's just an example.

Using our team as an example - it was the Last to First story. And it was Boston Strong. I think the Boston Red Sox winning the World Series this past season was GREAT for baseball. A much stronger storyline than, oh btw Yankees make it to the Series for the Umpteenth time. But regardless of how good the 'story' is, bottom line we DID have the BEST TEAM in baseball. Our guys played their hearts out and earned that championship by winning against the best and most talented opponents surviving in the playoffs this year.

An A+ for that one vj. There were teams that had more raw talent, better hitting, rotations, and even power and defense, but the Red Sox has the BEST TEAM!!!!!! I can't recall any other team in baseball who demonstrated the total team concept of one for all, all for one concept as did our team this season. I would also assume that this gives some inspiration to some other clubs who saw what our team did.....if the Red Sox can do it, so can we. Of course it isn't that simple because they most likely don't have the chemistry we had and, secondly, they aren't the Red Sox.

[SoxSport]

Big markets and cable TV killed the Celtics. They've managed 1 championship in the big market era. The NBA has a phoney soft cap which benefits LA and NY. The Lakers have benefitted living miles above the cap, but the Knicks haven't--from incompetence.

In baseball, the Yankees were gifted with a championship team in the 1920s, courtesy of Harry Frazee who generously sold them the core of the Red Sox team. But the Yankees continued to dominate thru the 30s, 40s and 50s, thru the strength of their farm system plus excellent trading. They then went into a fall when Mantle retired. Free agency in the late 70s was made to order for them and new owner Steinbrenner, who vacuumed up every free agent in sight--pushing prices up for everybody else. This was when Boras was still in his crib, or maybe studying business somewhere. Recall that's when Haywood Sullivan rebelled against FAs by "losing" the contracts of Fisk and Lynn. The Yankees then dominated with a largely mercenary team. Then, as I recall, Steinbrenner got prosecuted for some shady doings, expelled as Yankee owner. The team was taken over by CBS, which promptly tanked them by cutting their purse strings. King George ultimately got reinstated, and went back to buying FAs again, but this time the farm system was also contributing the likes of Jeter, Posada, Pettite, Rivera,etc, and the Yankee dominated again in the 90s and early 2000s. But they are in trouble now, because they are loaded with big contracts of aging players and the farm system is barren. The Red Sox, on the other hand, are World champions, with a nice blend of prospects and free agents. Though it seems they still wrestle with the dilemma of giving prospects an opportunity vs signing free agents.

How did I get into all this? I don't remember. :)

[seabeachfred]

What I stated was an opinion. If you want to debunk an opinion, do a better job than some cherry picked stats. How about a three year analysis of attendance at visiting ballparks for the dates when the Yankees were in town-- or something with some statistical validity. Better yet, put me back on ignore. Things worked better that way

Man, you're a mean son of a bitch today Ted. Good to get agitated every so often, isn't it? I have to try and do the opposite, wind it down a little. BTW how about letting me know when you're going to be around so I can buzz you. We haven't had a baseball pow wow in some time and I love to pick your brain. Let me know.

[seabeachfred]

I think the scale has tilted away from them though. They have a big financial advantage, but not nearly as monstrous an advantage as it was even 5-10 years ago. They used to be the premier team, but in a few years from now, are they going to be any different from the Celtics? Storied winners of the past leading their sport in titles, but in 5 years from now, who knows, maybe the reckless spending catches up with them, and they become like the Celtics of the 90s and early 2000s.

You know Palodios, you're again on to something, but let me add an addenda to it. We can help this along if the Red Sox become perennial WS contenders year in and year out. We now have a second chance to do something like that and whether the Yankee fandom wants to admit it or not we are now the premium team in the game even though talent wise we have to take a back seat to two or three other ball clubs. Still the proof is in the eating and we have three titles the past ten years and no one in our league is closer than two away.

Back when I was a regular poster on the old Dirt Dog board before they sold it to some company and screwed things up, I said the first WS Title would end the curse and end our reputation of talented but lovable losers. A second one would validate us as a serious player in the baseball world. A third would put us in the elite category not shared by more than two or three other teams. In fact, had Tito been able to have won another WS his ticket would already be ready to punch to the Hall of Fame. Well we have three now and if we could get two more in the final seven years of this decade (2014-2020) we would be the elite team in the game. It is worth the gamble for the Red Sox to supplant the Yankees once and for all as the TEAM in the Big Leagues.