What do you think the Sox chances are in 2013

[Soxman]

I think they can do well. How far do you see them going in 2013?
:thumbsup:

[onlybereaved]

Here's what I think...

The team is going to enjoy an overall better atmosphere this season. There will be less pollution and negativity within the clubhouse and on the bench, etc. The guys are going to develop a nice chemistry, and deliberately play with grit or heart, etc.

This is a huge step in the right direction, and alone should allow for the team to do better than it has in the last 2 seasons. That being said, I believe that it is safe to say that although they could "do well", the odds are they will finish 3rd or 4th at best in the AL-E.

I personally appreciate your optimism...but I can see you getting thrashed in this thread because the overwhelming consensus on talksox forum is negative and bitter (so far) with respect to the question you're asking.

Wait for it...

[Bellhorn04]

Assuming we sign Napoli or LaRoche, my prediction at this point would be 84-78 and out of the playoffs. Which doesn't mean I'm unhappy about the general offseason strategy. But my optimism is directed more toward 2014. Go prospects.

[BSN07]

Too early to make any kind of creditable guess. If you think they will contend, people will say your wearing your rose colored glasses. If you say they won't contend you'll be considered a doomsday type. This discussion is going to lead to a lot of bickering and urine spraying lol

[Station 13]

85 wins if we get a real closer.

[jacksonianmarch]

You need to build from within, but sign some more stopgap options for your rotation. Right now, the rotation is...

1. Buchholz
2. Dempster
3. Lester
4. Lackey
5. Doubront

Buchholz is a guy that some of you guys are pinning as an "ace" yet he had a much worse season than Phil Hughes, a guy who also started off terribly and most people on here thinks is garbage. He's a guy who is streaky, injury prone, yet if he could ever put a strong full season together has the potential to give innings and effectiveness. But, he's still a questionmark

Dempster is a guy who gives innings and has been effective the last few seasons. He transitioned poorly initially to Texas, but came on strong at the end. He's a veteran who can avoid bats even with a diminishing arsenal. I think he is going to be your "ace" by season's end, but more a guy who goes 200IP and can have an ERA in the 4.00 range

Lester is a complete enigma. He gives you durability, starting 31+ games for 5 straight yrs. But his effectiveness has waned significantly from his banner yrs from 08-10. His K rate has dropped in 11 and 12. His walk rate started rising in 2010, plateaued in 2011 and came down a bunch in 2012. But his BAA, and more importantly, hit HR allowed have risen sharply. That shows a guy whose stuff is dwindling a little, even though the velocities are only down a little. But it shows a guy who is wild inside the zone, something that will get you killed as a lefty in Fenway. And that is where he has sucked the hardest. On the road, Lester was an ace. 98.1IP 87H 35ER 10HR 27BB 80K 3.20ERA 1.15WHIP 7.3K/9IP 3.00K/BB, At home, he was fucking terrible. 107IP 129H 75ER 15HR 41BB 86K 6.31ERA 1.59WHIP 7.2K/9IP 2.1K/BB. Lefties who start seeing phantoms in Fenway typically dont correct on their own. If this bugaboo continues, he'll be wearing another uniform come mid season

John Lackey is a true wild card. For a 5 yr stretch in Anaheim, he was your prototypical #2 pitcher. 200IP, solid performance, bulldog mentality. He came to Boston and he got hit hard in his debut season, but gave 215IP and was still a warrior. His 2011 season is being blamed on injury, but it was one of the worst statistical seasons a pitcher wearing a sox uniform has ever put up. And he has now missed 2012 after surgery. He just turned 34 and prior to the elbow wearing out, his stuff had started to dwindle. Some guys get some velo back after TJS, but those are typically younger pitchers. The older guys coming back from this typically lose a little velocity. So, the question is, which will it be. Will Lackey come back as the guy throwing 93mph bowling balls and geting groundball after groundball again. Or will he come back as a guy throwing 87mph sinkers up in the zone that end up on Landsdowne street? Who knows

Felix Doubront is a guy that some on this site seem quick to want to shed because they didnt like his up and down season from a yr ago. I would think that to be a mistake. He wasnt perfect by any means, but he also went through a stretch where he wasnt getting any support. He also succumbed like most rookies to in the dog days of summer. He was your best pitcher through July, then got a little injured, sucked ass in August and September and left a sour tase in your mouths. But this kid has some serious promise, even though he is also a questionmark. He needs to keep the ball in the yard more, he needs to drop the walk rate and continue to miss bats. But in the end, I think he ends up a solid starter for you.

Overall, each spot has a questionmark. I am pretty sure that Buchholz, Lester, and Dempster will give you some production enough to justify their spots in the rotation. But having guys in the top 3 with questions and then having the bottom two be humongous questionmarks leaves you having to have a lot break right just to contend.

[jacksonianmarch]

You need to build from within, but sign some more stopgap options for your rotation. Right now, the rotation is...

1. Buchholz
2. Dempster
3. Lester
4. Lackey
5. Doubront

Buchholz is a guy that some of you guys are pinning as an "ace" yet he had a much worse season than Phil Hughes, a guy who also started off terribly and most people on here thinks is garbage. He's a guy who is streaky, injury prone, yet if he could ever put a strong full season together has the potential to give innings and effectiveness. But, he's still a questionmark

Dempster is a guy who gives innings and has been effective the last few seasons. He transitioned poorly initially to Texas, but came on strong at the end. He's a veteran who can avoid bats even with a diminishing arsenal. I think he is going to be your "ace" by season's end, but more a guy who goes 200IP and can have an ERA in the 4.00 range

Lester is a complete enigma. He gives you durability, starting 31+ games for 5 straight yrs. But his effectiveness has waned significantly from his banner yrs from 08-10. His K rate has dropped in 11 and 12. His walk rate started rising in 2010, plateaued in 2011 and came down a bunch in 2012. But his BAA, and more importantly, hit HR allowed have risen sharply. That shows a guy whose stuff is dwindling a little, even though the velocities are only down a little. But it shows a guy who is wild inside the zone, something that will get you killed as a lefty in Fenway. And that is where he has sucked the hardest. On the road, Lester was an ace. 98.1IP 87H 35ER 10HR 27BB 80K 3.20ERA 1.15WHIP 7.3K/9IP 3.00K/BB, At home, he was fucking terrible. 107IP 129H 75ER 15HR 41BB 86K 6.31ERA 1.59WHIP 7.2K/9IP 2.1K/BB. Lefties who start seeing phantoms in Fenway typically dont correct on their own. If this bugaboo continues, he'll be wearing another uniform come mid season

John Lackey is a true wild card. For a 5 yr stretch in Anaheim, he was your prototypical #2 pitcher. 200IP, solid performance, bulldog mentality. He came to Boston and he got hit hard in his debut season, but gave 215IP and was still a warrior. His 2011 season is being blamed on injury, but it was one of the worst statistical seasons a pitcher wearing a sox uniform has ever put up. And he has now missed 2012 after surgery. He just turned 34 and prior to the elbow wearing out, his stuff had started to dwindle. Some guys get some velo back after TJS, but those are typically younger pitchers. The older guys coming back from this typically lose a little velocity. So, the question is, which will it be. Will Lackey come back as the guy throwing 93mph bowling balls and geting groundball after groundball again. Or will he come back as a guy throwing 87mph sinkers up in the zone that end up on Landsdowne street? Who knows

Felix Doubront is a guy that some on this site seem quick to want to shed because they didnt like his up and down season from a yr ago. I would think that to be a mistake. He wasnt perfect by any means, but he also went through a stretch where he wasnt getting any support. He also succumbed like most rookies to in the dog days of summer. He was your best pitcher through July, then got a little injured, sucked ass in August and September and left a sour tase in your mouths. But this kid has some serious promise, even though he is also a questionmark. He needs to keep the ball in the yard more, he needs to drop the walk rate and continue to miss bats. But in the end, I think he ends up a solid starter for you.

Overall, each spot has a questionmark. I am pretty sure that Buchholz, Lester, and Dempster will give you some production enough to justify their spots in the rotation. But having guys in the top 3 with questions and then having the bottom two be humongous questionmarks leaves you having to have a lot break right just to contend.

[jung]

If the rotation was not chock full of guys that are all question marks and the league now with a few truly impressive rosters you could be more optimistic about their 2013 chances. But the rotation is full of question marks and the competition in 2013 will demand that those pitchers answer those questions. Asking all five guys to end up getting it done for you when the questions are both many and significant is just to much to ask.

The guy with the best chance of putting a yes next to his name is Felix as long as the question is "Will he have a solid season that shows a progression of success over 2012". If the question is "Will he leap to the top of the staff posting up 200 innings at a better than 4.00 ERA pitching as a left hander in Fenway and in the AL East", I would say....the answer will be no.

Lackey probably owns the biggest question mark of the rotation guys assuming his big question is "Will he pitch effectively and make a meaningful contribution as a starter his first year back from TJ particularly give the age factor".

The rest own question marks closer to Lackey's and farther away from Felix's in scope, scale and likelihood of of putting a yes there instead of a no.

Assuming that the team is set (which is probably not the case as they still have some room to the LT cap) it seems to me they won't have enough muscle to hang with the big boys who will very likely hit some against this pitching staff. They should beat their share of the league's dregs but will just lose to many games to the better teams either unable to pitch with them or hit enough to hang with them.

If you could pick 3.5 that is where I would be. I think they stand a decent chance of finishing 3rd in the AL East but could just as easily finish 4th. I do not think 3rd in the AL East captures the 2nd WC.

Even if they finally sign one SP that is not covered in ??? with this last dribble of money they have left, what kind of starter is that going to be with the money they have left. Not sure there is much to suggest finishing better than 3rd.

As for the business aspects of what they have done this off season.....I suspect this team will not pump the advanced ticket sales and once it starts losing enough games for fans to start to recognize the mid-pack finish as likely, they really have not put any interesting players or players that will generate much empathy from fans on this team. That is why I would have surrounded Hamilton with a bunch of the young guys instead of going down the path they have chosen. Hamilton puts two big bats in the middle of the lineup for 2013 and 2014 coupled with Ortiz. Surround those two big bats with a bunch of the kids and you have a team that is both interesting and fan friendly from the perspective of empathy. That team would likely lose more games than this team will but who cares. Missing the post season is missing the post season and they would be better set for 2014 my way I think than their way.

[rjortiz]

I think they're an 85 win team right now. With a little luck, they can make the playoffs.

[dupree]

If the rotation was not chock full of guys that are all question marks and the league now with a few truly impressive rosters you could be more optimistic about their 2013 chances. But the rotation is full of question marks and the competition in 2013 will demand that those pitchers answer those questions. Asking all five guys to end up getting it done for you when the questions are both many and significant is just to much to ask.

The guy with the best chance of putting a yes next to his name is Felix as long as the question is "Will he have a solid season that shows a progression of success over 2012". If the question is "Will he leap to the top of the staff posting up 200 innings at a better than 4.00 ERA pitching as a left hander in Fenway and in the AL East", I would say....the answer will be no.

Lackey probably owns the biggest question mark of the rotation guys assuming his big question is "Will he pitch effectively and make a meaningful contribution as a starter his first year back from TJ particularly give the age factor".

The rest own question marks closer to Lackey's and farther away from Felix's in scope, scale and likelihood of of putting a yes there instead of a no.

Assuming that the team is set (which is probably not the case as they still have some room to the LT cap) it seems to me they won't have enough muscle to hang with the big boys who will very likely hit some against this pitching staff. They should beat their share of the league's dregs but will just lose to many games to the better teams either unable to pitch with them or hit enough to hang with them.

If you could pick 3.5 that is where I would be. I think they stand a decent chance of finishing 3rd in the AL East but could just as easily finish 4th. I do not think 3rd in the AL East captures the 2nd WC.

Even if they finally sign one SP that is not covered in ??? with this last dribble of money they have left, what kind of starter is that going to be with the money they have left. Not sure there is much to suggest finishing better than 3rd.

As for the business aspects of what they have done this off season.....I suspect this team will not pump the advanced ticket sales and once it starts losing enough games for fans to start to recognize the mid-pack finish as likely, they really have not put any interesting players or players that will generate much empathy from fans on this team. That is why I would have surrounded Hamilton with a bunch of the young guys instead of going down the path they have chosen. Hamilton puts two big bats in the middle of the lineup for 2013 and 2014 coupled with Ortiz. Surround those two big bats with a bunch of the kids and you have a team that is both interesting and fan friendly from the perspective of empathy. That team would likely lose more games than this team will but who cares. Missing the post season is missing the post season and they would be better set for 2014 my way I think than their way.

Well said agree 100%

[Lucienbel]

If the rotation was not chock full of guys that are all question marks and the league now with a few truly impressive rosters you could be more optimistic about their 2013 chances. But the rotation is full of question marks and the competition in 2013 will demand that those pitchers answer those questions. Asking all five guys to end up getting it done for you when the questions are both many and significant is just to much to ask.

The guy with the best chance of putting a yes next to his name is Felix as long as the question is "Will he have a solid season that shows a progression of success over 2012". If the question is "Will he leap to the top of the staff posting up 200 innings at a better than 4.00 ERA pitching as a left hander in Fenway and in the AL East", I would say....the answer will be no.

Lackey probably owns the biggest question mark of the rotation guys assuming his big question is "Will he pitch effectively and make a meaningful contribution as a starter his first year back from TJ particularly give the age factor".

The rest own question marks closer to Lackey's and farther away from Felix's in scope, scale and likelihood of of putting a yes there instead of a no.

Assuming that the team is set (which is probably not the case as they still have some room to the LT cap) it seems to me they won't have enough muscle to hang with the big boys who will very likely hit some against this pitching staff. They should beat their share of the league's dregs but will just lose to many games to the better teams either unable to pitch with them or hit enough to hang with them.

If you could pick 3.5 that is where I would be. I think they stand a decent chance of finishing 3rd in the AL East but could just as easily finish 4th. I do not think 3rd in the AL East captures the 2nd WC.

Even if they finally sign one SP that is not covered in ??? with this last dribble of money they have left, what kind of starter is that going to be with the money they have left. Not sure there is much to suggest finishing better than 3rd.

As for the business aspects of what they have done this off season.....I suspect this team will not pump the advanced ticket sales and once it starts losing enough games for fans to start to recognize the mid-pack finish as likely, they really have not put any interesting players or players that will generate much empathy from fans on this team. That is why I would have surrounded Hamilton with a bunch of the young guys instead of going down the path they have chosen. Hamilton puts two big bats in the middle of the lineup for 2013 and 2014 coupled with Ortiz. Surround those two big bats with a bunch of the kids and you have a team that is both interesting and fan friendly from the perspective of empathy. That team would likely lose more games than this team will but who cares. Missing the post season is missing the post season and they would be better set for 2014 my way I think than their way.

Outside of the Hamilton thing I completely agree with this as well. Given what Hamilton ended up getting, I really don't see the advantage of signing him. If he ended up getting left dry and they could have swooped in for two years, maybe. The way it is now though, I don't see the logic in him.

With that said, I think the analysis on the pitching is good, both you and Jacksonian seem to have pretty good ideas with that. Also agreeing that the money they have left won't lock them up a pitcher that doesn't have some question marks. With that said, adding a guy like Marcum who does have question marks may not be the worst idea. He's always been pretty solid when he's healthy.

I like the 3rd or 4th place finish idea, and I'm going to predict the same. Someone else said it too, this team should have better chemistry. I know for a lot of fans not having a big name player or a winning team will probably turn them off, but I do imagine this team will be a lot more fun to watch than it has in the recent past. I'm excited for that at the very least.

[jacksonianmarch]

People throwing out 85-90 wins really need to also look at the division and see where those wins will come from. You have 72 of your 162 against teams in your division. And with the division being so good, it will be hard to really say that the sox are likely to be over .500 at all.

The team that finished the yr was actually a .300 team, when you look at the post-trade production. So basing things off a team that won 69 games isnt really accurate since the group that finished the yr would have won 49 games should they have played an entire season Throw in a healthy Ortiz and Middlebrooks plus the cadre of what-ifs in Dempster, Victorino, Gomes, and maybe Napoli and you have to wonder how many wins those guys offer. Plus, you figure the Blue Jays markedly improved and with the O's coming off a playoff bid, the Yankees pitching being healthy and back in the running for best rotation in the AL and the Rays always being a fly in the ointment and you have to wonder how many they win. I've said all along that I have the sox around 75-80 wins this yr barring a miraculous acquisition or ridiculously lucky season

[jung]

I actually thought four years (one less than he got) would have been optimal for Hamilton...enough years to build around him...not the ridiculous 6,7,8,10 year contracts MLB had been tossing around in years past.

If the Sox had enthusiastically embraced 5 years it might have been worth doing as that would have been 1 past what I thought was optimal. Six...can't do it. The 5th year may just be a useless year for all we know. I could not stomach going into the deal knowing I am very likely facing two useless years at the end. So I could have swallowed 5 years but not 6.

I would surely spend the remaining $$ on some sort of pitcher and there are so many question marks....what the hell....at this point is one more any worse. Just as I cannot figure that all the question marks will be answered with a yes, I also cannot rationalize a view that all the question marks will be answered with a no. If that is where you are, it probably makes more sense to roll the dice again and hope that another SP with question marks just ends up adding the chances that you get enough yes answers to make a difference. Why take a steady eddy at this point. I could go for Marcum as he has been on that list of guys worth pursuing since the start. He might cost more money than they have left though...just not sure.

That is what sort of bothers you about spending $10m for Drew. Sucked the last decent money out of them that they had...for what...Steven Drew???

[jacksonianmarch]

They're loading up on shorter term deals which allows them the capability to make a run at the pitching coming available next season. You have Halladay, Lincecum, Garza, and Wainwright who should be on the market, assuming the Phils dont pick up the $20 mil option on an aging Halladay

[rjortiz]

People throwing out 85-90 wins really need to also look at the division and see where those wins will come from. You have 72 of your 162 against teams in your division. And with the division being so good, it will be hard to really say that the sox are likely to be over .500 at all.

The team that finished the yr was actually a .300 team, when you look at the post-trade production. So basing things off a team that won 69 games isnt really accurate since the group that finished the yr would have won 49 games should they have played an entire season Throw in a healthy Ortiz and Middlebrooks plus the cadre of what-ifs in Dempster, Victorino, Gomes, and maybe Napoli and you have to wonder how many wins those guys offer. Plus, you figure the Blue Jays markedly improved and with the O's coming off a playoff bid, the Yankees pitching being healthy and back in the running for best rotation in the AL and the Rays always being a fly in the ointment and you have to wonder how many they win. I've said all along that I have the sox around 75-80 wins this yr barring a miraculous acquisition or ridiculously lucky season

I don't believe the Red Sox would have finished with 49 wins with that team last year, I think you are underrating them a bit.

[Lord Snow]

Assuming we sign Napoli or LaRoche, my prediction at this point would be 84-78 and out of the playoffs. Which doesn't mean I'm unhappy about the general offseason strategy. But my optimism is directed more toward 2014. Go prospects.

I don't understand all the support for "building from within". The Sox's farm system is depleted. We had a real boom about 8 years ago producing Youkilis, Papelbon, Pedroia, Hanley Ramirez, Anibal Sanchez, Lester, Buchholz, Ellsbury & Bard. But since then things have gotten relatively stale.

There isn't much at the farm that I'm overly confident in to have an impact at the major league level. Xander Bogaerts had great success in 2012 but is still in the low levels of the minor leagues. Jackie Bradley inspires confidence as well but even he only has 60 games above A ball under his belt.

How many young A ball stars go to die in the higher levels and never have a meaningful impact in the bigs?

Matt Barnes hasn't pitched above A ball, Webster lacks command that he should have by now if he were to have a big impact on the club, De La Rosa is coming off TJ.

While these players all show some promise it's not as if we've got any players coming off a slugfest at AA &/or AAA. Or any arms dominating in the advanced minor league levels.

2013 is a make or break year for almost all of the top Red Sox prospects.

[Rdsxmbnt]

I don't understand all the support for "building from within". The Sox's farm system is depleted. We had a real boom about 8 years ago producing Youkilis, Papelbon, Pedroia, Hanley Ramirez, Anibal Sanchez, Lester, Buchholz, Ellsbury & Bard. But since then things have gotten relatively stale.

There isn't much at the farm that I'm overly confident in to have an impact at the major league level. Xander Bogaerts had great success in 2012 but is still in the low levels of the minor leagues. Jackie Bradley inspires confidence as well but even he only has 60 games above A ball under his belt.

How many young A ball stars go to die in the higher levels and never have a meaningful impact in the bigs?

Matt Barnes hasn't pitched above A ball, Webster lacks command that he should have by now if he were to have a big impact on the club, De La Rosa is coming off TJ.

While these players all show some promise it's not as if we've got any players coming off a slugfest at AA &/or AAA. Or any arms dominating in the advanced minor league levels.

2013 is a make or break year for almost all of the top Red Sox prospects.

This is one of the most absurd critiques of a farm system I have ever read. The Red Sox farm is easily a top 10 system in baseball right now, there is no farm out there that is loaded with upper level prospects destroying AA/AAA. Every prospect out there has question marks, if "hasnt pitched above A ball" is the best critique you can come up with then I think we're in pretty good shape.

[Lord Snow]

This is one of the most absurd critiques of a farm system I have ever read. The Red Sox farm is easily a top 10 system in baseball right now, there is no farm out there that is loaded with upper level prospects destroying AA/AAA. Every prospect out there has question marks, if "hasnt pitched above A ball" is the best critique you can come up with then I think we're in pretty good shape.

My point is simply that almost every top prospect in the system is over a year away from the major leagues. None of them are beating down the door for a call-up. And a lot can happen in a year.

[Rdsxmbnt]

My point is simply that almost every top prospect in the system is over a year away from the major leagues. None of them are beating down the door for a call-up. And a lot can happen in a year.

Your argument was centered around the idea that you don't understand the support for build from within. What is your proposal then? Ship all these prospects out for veterans?

Before any of those established Red Sox players were successful major leaguers they were questionable prospects.

I don't think the core is that far away. Hell Rubby has already had success in the majors, assuming he heals properly I think he either makes the major league roster in April or is there very soon.

As for Webster, his command isn't great but neither was Jon Lesters. Stuff if far more important, a lot of young pitchers are wild to begin their careers and then settle in. Buchholz pitched 8 starts before getting the call to the majors, if Webster has a good start in AAA and there's an opening he's a potential mid-season callup.

As for Bogaerts and Bradley, they have already had success in AA. If their first 100+ AB look good I don't think the FO will hesitate to promote them. WMB had 100 AB in AAA before establishing himself as a major league regular, these promotions can happen very quickly.

[jung]

Because building through FA creates the kind of 25 players, 25 limos mentality that we just saw and that was in part responsible for the Sox "team" playing as poorly as it did. But that is just the tip of the iceberg. Not only do you often end up with a team that is low on the chemistry scale, they often don't roll up into a team that even compliments themselves in a baseball sense which is even worse. The more FA moves you make, the more you are banking on your ability to judge talent from afar....not something the Sox FO has proven particularly good at. You end up with a generally older, more injury prone team and guys that take longer to recover from their injuries. You end up with no cost controlled components to your team and thus no flexibility to move when you need to...it just goes on and on and on. No telling how many of these guys are using PED's and what will happen if and when caught or they decide to stop. If I was using and got my big deal....I would stop that day....consequences be damned. I got my money.

The best way to use FA is fill the holes you have on a team that you have basically nurtured through your system. That takes time but to build a team of FA's simply dooms you to a very costly assemblage of high risk, generally older, very independent players that you will be lucky to survive. The only reason the Sox have any shot at all in the near term is because LA rescued them from the nutcase deals they made with guys like Beckett in his extension and AGons and Crawford. While LA has so much money that they might actually be able to simply bring guys in and cast them aside if they don't work out bringing in even more as a part of the process. They actually have that kind of money and I think they are very likely to do that until they win one of these damned things. Nobody else including the Yanks can afford to do that.

You need a balance of players and if anything biased toward cost controlled younger players still working for their first big contract, established vets that were the younger players of your past (Pedey) and FA's when you need them where you need them.

By the time the Sox were done with the mess they made, the character of that team, the profile of that team had nothing to do with the Red Sox. That team was its FA's as disparate as they were, as independent as they were, as discombobulated as they were even in a baseball sense. Even as a fan you became more engrossed in the players that were on the DL, on the mend, just coming out of surgery or were just plain busts cause that is what that team was, a collection of big salaries and the names associated with those salaries, some of them having not played any decent baseball in years...enter Mr Cameron and Mr Jenks.

I for one am not even against big name, monster salary signings. This is after all a big market team. However I am wholly against building a team that way or through FA generally.

[Jacoby_Ellsbury]

75-80 wins.

[SoxFanForsyth]

If there was ever a year to be where we are, it's this year.

I understand that you are what your record says you are, but last year the Sox were more of a .500 team than a 69 win team. Severe underperformance and injuries to key players destroyed the season.

I think next season the Sox are around an 85-88 win team, and could flux down to 80 wins or up to 92-94 wins with a big year from Doubront, or from some surprise performances from Lackey and Dempster.

Having said all that, I think 90-92 wins will take the East. And I think every team will be in the mix outside of the Orioles.

[SoxFanForsyth]

I don't know what Jackso is talking about. This is the weakest I've seen the East in ages

[a700hitter]

I understand that you are what your record says you are, but last year the Sox were more of a .500 team than a 69 win team. Severe underperformance and injuries to key players destroyed the season.
SFF, you are one of my favorite posters and you are solid on player evaluations, but this ^ is an untenable statement. I am not saying this to pick nits or to argue, but we all need to feel the cold slap of reality of 2012. It was the year that opened our eyes to the fact that this is a bad organization on all levels of its baseball operations. Their marketing department is top shelf, and they have a great established fan base that stretches around the globe. The baseball operations needs an overhaul. Hopefully, we will see that they have made some progress in that regard in the next few years.

I really think they need to get some people in the organization who know and can evaluate pitching at all levels.

[jung]

Well I agree that the East is weaker than we have seen it in a long time especially when valued against the other divisions that have made big strides.

However I don't see the Sox as necessarily able to take advantage of that to such a degree that they can pull themselves up beyond 3rd.

The Jays have question marks without doubt...but they just have them at about 1 tier or maybe even 1.5 tiers higher than where we are. So whether they go far in their campaign...who knows....injuries can sidetrack anybody. But for example if Reyes works out for them his working out beats Drews working out by miles and miles. I don't see the Sox getting past the Jays. As for Jacko's comments on the Yankees, IF in fact their pitching is back intact and ready to roll, Jacko is right. There is simply no replacement for a heavy dose of pitching and over the 162 given where our pitching is, the Yanks would be tough to top given the relative differences. Where I am not ready to accept Jacko's analysis is that I am not ready to accept that the Yanks are all neatly back in order on the mound. If they are OK point well taken. However I don't believe they are there yet.

If the Yanks do get there, I think the best we get is fighting with the Rays for 3rd with either them or us finishing there, other guy finishing 4th and the Orioles ending up last. If anything the bottom 3 (Sox, Rays and O's) are closer to each than the top two (Jays, Yanks) again if and when the Yanks do have their pitching house fully in order.

This is were the relative weakness in the AL East hits home. For my money, 3rd in the AL East isn't going to get the 2nd WC this year and ends up going home.

[Bellhorn04]

I don't know what Jackso is talking about. This is the weakest I've seen the East in ages

We'll see. Last year 3 teams won 90 games and the 4th team is the Jays. I guess you're expecting a big dropoff by the Yankees and Orioles.

[jung]

I think that the O's winning 29 one runs games is the outlier. How can anybody possibly win that many close games two years running. Yet they don't seem to be making changes sufficient to turn them to a high scoring, wide open team. They I think will play in a bunch of tight match ups again. They are not a bad team. When I look at everybody else, the O's seem to fall out the trap door at the bottom.

[Bellhorn04]

I think that the O's winning 29 one runs games is the outlier. How can anybody possibly win that many close games two years running. Yet they don't seem to be making changes sufficient to turn them to a high scoring, wide open team. They I think will play in a bunch of tight match ups again. They are not a bad team. When I look at everybody else, the O's seem to fall out the trap door at the bottom.

Possibly, but don't overlook that the O's were 38-20 down the stretch and their two best starters, Tillman and Gonzalez, were basically only with them the second half.

I really expected them to add a big bat in the offseason but it looks like Angelos refused to spend a dime on upgrading.

[jung]

That is what I thought would happen Bell cause I figured they would see that as the path to some easier victories. So far nothin'. I wonder if Angelos is torqued off cause the fans never showed.

[jacksonianmarch]

If there was ever a year to be where we are, it's this year.

I understand that you are what your record says you are, but last year the Sox were more of a .500 team than a 69 win team. Severe underperformance and injuries to key players destroyed the season.

I think next season the Sox are around an 85-88 win team, and could flux down to 80 wins or up to 92-94 wins with a big year from Doubront, or from some surprise performances from Lackey and Dempster.

Having said all that, I think 90-92 wins will take the East. And I think every team will be in the mix outside of the Orioles.

The bolded part is the most extreme level of rose colored hogwash I have ever seen. The sox were 60-67 when THE TRADE went down. They went 9-26 in their final 35 games. That is NOT a .500 team. You could make the case that if they stayed intact that they'd be a .500 team, but the team that finished the yr wearing Red Sox uniforms was not even close to a .500 team.

[Bellhorn04]

The bolded part is the most extreme level of rose colored hogwash I have ever seen. The sox were 60-67 when THE TRADE went down. They went 9-26 in their final 35 games. That is NOT a .500 team. You could make the case that if they stayed intact that they'd be a .500 team, but the team that finished the yr wearing Red Sox uniforms was not even close to a .500 team.

:lol:

[jung]

Well I don't want to put words in the guys mouth but I think the case SFF was trying to make was that it was a 500 team before the trade.

I don't think it is fair to say that what was left after the trade was anything to write home about or anything that was intended to be a "team" of any sort, contending or otherwise.

The only remaining components of that 2012 team that you can look at with an eye to what might be for 2013 is the rotation and the pen. I don't think you can really look at the rest and draw anything meaningful from it.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Say what you want about the Sox last year, but the reason they were 60-69 when the trade went down was because the majority of the core players were either hurt or playing well below their career norms.

Lester is much much better than he was last year. He posts a sub 3.5 era for 4 years straight, then has a bad year and all of a sudden he's a terrible, pitcher who has peaked.

Buchholz doesn't throw for 10 months, goes in and allows more than 1/3 of his total ER in his first 6 starts before he's back to being himself.

Ellsbury comes off an MVP season and goes down in the 7th game of the year and isn't right all year.

Pedroia is battling thumb issues the entire first half of the season.

Ortiz is on pace for a 35 HR season and he goes down in mid July with 23 HR.

Middlebrooks goes down in August with a season that, any other year, has him in ROY considerations.

Talent wise, yes, they were much much better than a 69 win team. And all of the guys listed are coming back.

Expecting them to perform to their career norms is completely reasonable. Last year was a complete aberration for nearly every one of the players mentioned above, compounded by a horrifying manager who had no clue what he was doing.

So no. It's not 'rose colored hogwash'. Try to perform just the smallest bit of analysis other than Murphy's Law for the Red Sox.

[Palodios]

Say what you want about the Sox last year, but the reason they were 60-69 when the trade went down was because the majority of the core players were either hurt or playing well below their career norms.

Lester is much much better than he was last year. He posts a sub 3.5 era for 4 years straight, then has a bad year and all of a sudden he's a terrible, pitcher who has peaked.

Buchholz doesn't throw for 10 months, goes in and allows more than 1/3 of his total ER in his first 6 starts before he's back to being himself.

Ellsbury comes off an MVP season and goes down in the 7th game of the year and isn't right all year.

Pedroia is battling thumb issues the entire first half of the season.

Ortiz is on pace for a 35 HR season and he goes down in mid July with 23 HR.

Middlebrooks goes down in August with a season that, any other year, has him in ROY considerations.

Talent wise, yes, they were much much better than a 69 win team. And all of the guys listed are coming back.

Expecting them to perform to their career norms is completely reasonable. Last year was a complete aberration for nearly every one of the players mentioned above, compounded by a horrifying manager who had no clue what he was doing.

So no. It's not 'rose colored hogwash'. Try to perform just the smallest bit of analysis other than Murphy's Law for the Red Sox.

Jacko, you really aren't factoring in exactly how little the Red Sox lost last year.

The Red Sox lose:
Adrian Gonzalez +2.5 WAR
Josh Beckett -.1 WAR
Carl Crawford .4 WAR
Nick Punto -.2 WAR

We're talking about 2.8 wins here. Victorino alone had a 2.4 WAR last year. Napoli had a 1.4 WAR on an off year. Gomes 2.1. Dempster 3.3. Ross 1.5. Uehara .9. Stephen Drew will contribute as well.

Ellsbury is on a contract year so he could add another 9 wins on his own.

Lackey, Bailey, Middlebrooks, Bard, Ortiz will be back from injuries. Plus, the Red Sox have much deeper depth in the minors and bench. There are a significant number of places where this team can improve going into 2013. They need one more pitcher before 90 wins is reasonable, but they're much better than 2012.

[jacksonianmarch]

Pal, I am disagreeing with the sentiment that the sox team that started this offseason was a .500 team. I think right now, the sox are around a .500 team

[SoxFanForsyth]

Pal, I am disagreeing with the sentiment that the sox team that started this offseason was a .500 team. I think right now, the sox are around a .500 team

I didn't say they started this offseason as a .500 team. I said last season, they underperformed and got hurt enough that, in terms of talent, they were closer to a .500 team than a 69 win team.

As of right now, especially with the bullpen being much stronger now, this team is an 85-88 win team.

[jacksonianmarch]

I didn't say they started this offseason as a .500 team. I said last season, they underperformed and got hurt enough that, in terms of talent, they were closer to a .500 team than a 69 win team.

As of right now, especially with the bullpen being much stronger now, this team is an 85-88 win team.

They're an 80 win team right now due to the strength of the division. Not sure how people can look at the division and say it's weak. The Yankees are not going away, and they won 95 games last yr. The O's havent changed at all and they won 93. The Rays did take a step back with the loss of Shields, but are pesky and are coming off a 90 win season. The Jays added significantly to their squad and are considered the favorites. How do you expect the sox to do in that division with the team they have in uniform so far? 72 of their games are inside that buzzsaw of a division.

[redsoxfan3]

People throwing out 85-90 wins really need to also look at the division and see where those wins will come from. You have 72 of your 162 against teams in your division. And with the division being so good, it will be hard to really say that the sox are likely to be over .500 at all.

The team that finished the yr was actually a .300 team, when you look at the post-trade production. So basing things off a team that won 69 games isnt really accurate since the group that finished the yr would have won 49 games should they have played an entire season Throw in a healthy Ortiz and Middlebrooks plus the cadre of what-ifs in Dempster, Victorino, Gomes, and maybe Napoli and you have to wonder how many wins those guys offer. Plus, you figure the Blue Jays markedly improved and with the O's coming off a playoff bid, the Yankees pitching being healthy and back in the running for best rotation in the AL and the Rays always being a fly in the ointment and you have to wonder how many they win. I've said all along that I have the sox around 75-80 wins this yr barring a miraculous acquisition or ridiculously lucky season

What does the .300 team at the end of last year have anything to do with this year? We are not fielding the same team. Gomes, Victorino, Napoli, Dempster, Drew, and Uehara are better than guys that we fielded at the end of last year like Gomez, Loney, Nava, Podsednik, etc. I could get into a debate about each position and say how we are going to be better off this upcoming season than we were at the end of last season, but I don't think that is necessary. Everyone in their right mind knows the team we are fielding is going to be better than the one that we fielded at the end of last year.

Is this a .500 team? There is no way in knowing as of right now. It is fair to say that this team could finish less than .500. There are a lot of question marks and the offseason moves are not finished. We have still been linked to getting other starting pitching and are still being linked to Cody Ross. It is hard to predict anything with this team. The team chemistry is going to be a lot better. We have signed some good clubhouse guys. I think there will be a lot less drama now that Bobby V is not managing like this team is a circus. I am not optimistic about this season. I am not pessimistic about this season. A LOT of things can happen. Every team in the AL East has question marks. I am not expecting this team to be over .500, but if it happens, I have seen crazier things.

[SoxFanForsyth]

They're an 80 win team right now due to the strength of the division. Not sure how people can look at the division and say it's weak. The Yankees are not going away, and they won 95 games last yr. The O's havent changed at all and they won 93. The Rays did take a step back with the loss of Shields, but are pesky and are coming off a 90 win season. The Jays added significantly to their squad and are considered the favorites. How do you expect the sox to do in that division with the team they have in uniform so far? 72 of their games are inside that buzzsaw of a division.

The Yankees have an injury plagued team. Jeter coming off an ankle injury. Ask Stephen Drew how that goes. ARod out until July. Replaced by Youk, who is barely league average. Pettitte hasn't started more than 21 games since 2009. Hughes has a career 4.4 era and has been average or below average in each of the past 3 seasons. You've got a RF who hasn't posted a .700 OPS since 2010. And Phelps threw what, 100 innings last year? What are you expecting from him. The Yankees are a very old, injury prone team who counts on the long ball too much.

The Orioles went 16-2 in extra inning games and went 29-9 in 1 run games. Complete and utter fluke season.

Saying the Rays, who lost 230 innings of 3.52 era baseball, are going to be in it because they're scrappy is lazy and inaccurate.

The Jays are very solid and are my pick right now. But that doesn't mean that the entire division is solid. Not by any means. This is by far and away the most open I've seen this division in a long time. A slew of 82-88 win teams. 90 could very well win the East.

[jung]

They probably have one play left to make at least without giving and getting salary ala' trade. They are already up to $165-168M committed against a $178m cap. But they don't have multiple moves left to make as they have already spent up close to the cap.

[redsoxfan3]

The Yankees have an injury plagued team. Jeter coming off an ankle injury. Ask Stephen Drew how that goes. ARod out until July. Replaced by Youk, who is barely league average. Pettitte hasn't started more than 21 games since 2009. Hughes has a career 4.4 era and has been average or below average in each of the past 3 seasons. You've got a RF who hasn't posted a .700 OPS since 2010. And Phelps threw what, 100 innings last year? What are you expecting from him. The Yankees are a very old, injury prone team who counts on the long ball too much.

The Orioles went 16-2 in extra inning games and went 29-9 in 1 run games. Complete and utter fluke season.

Saying the Rays, who lost 230 innings of 3.52 era baseball, are going to be in it because they're scrappy is lazy and inaccurate.

The Jays are very solid and are my pick right now. But that doesn't mean that the entire division is solid. Not by any means. This is by far and away the most open I've seen this division in a long time. A slew of 82-88 win teams. 90 could very well win the East.

I do agree with you in saying the division is open, but in my opinion, I do not necessarily think that means the division is weak.

The Jays just made themselves the favorite, in the eyes of most, to win the East with all of their offseason moves.

The Yankees have question marks, but they can still be a very competitive team. Age is not on their side, but they are still not a walk in the park. The Yankees are still the Yankees.

The Orioles have a lot of confidence after last season. I do agree that last year that they were fortunate to win 16 extra inning games. That is something that probably will not happen again. Either way, the Orioles are still going to be a tough team.

The Rays did lose Shields and Wade, but they have the pitching depth to make a trade for Myers like they did. They are going to have to count on big years from guys like Moore, Hellickson, and Cobb. They are not the best team offensively, but Myers will be a nice addition. The Rays always find a way to surprise people, so you cannot write them off by any means.

The Red Sox are coming off of a down year, so we all know that they will be playing with a chip on their shoulders this year. They will be determined to turn things around. The clubhouse and team chemistry will be better. There will be a lot less drama. We all know we need to have big years from Lester, Buchholz, and Dempster. There are a lot of question marks, but there is no doubt that the talent is there.

I don't think it is fair to say that the division is weak. In fact, I think with the Jays offseason moves, that this is the toughest division in baseball. The Yankees are always solid. The Rays always surprise people. The Orioles are coming off of a surprising year. The Jays are expecting big things. The Red Sox have made some nice moves. I think it is fair to say the the division is the toughest in baseball. I don't know if I would say the entire division is solid, but as of right now, we do not not know what to expect next year.

[jung]

I think you could make the case that the division is not as strong as it was relative to the other AL Divisions and that might be more important to the teams that don't win the division in the east. I don't think the team that finishes 3rd in the AL East this year takes the 2nd WC.

[Behindenemylines]

I guess we have to be prepared for the worst, and hope for the best. On paper the Sox are out of the playoffs, but it would be nice if they are playing meaningful games in September.

[mvp 78]

As SBF would say, "last DAMN place."

I'm fine with it as long as they are building for the future.

[Lucienbel]

SFF, you are one of my favorite posters and you are solid on player evaluations, but this ^ is an untenable statement. I am not saying this to pick nits or to argue, but we all need to feel the cold slap of reality of 2012. It was the year that opened our eyes to the fact that this is a bad organization on all levels of its baseball operations. Their marketing department is top shelf, and they have a great established fan base that stretches around the globe. The baseball operations needs an overhaul. Hopefully, we will see that they have made some progress in that regard in the next few years.

I really think they need to get some people in the organization who know and can evaluate pitching at all levels.

Someone that's able to sit down and get some solid pitching in the farm system and up and through the majors would be excellent. With all of these things you've said, they do seem to at least have a mentality geared sort of in place for this now. It's nice to see them not just pawning off the farm system for whatever they need this year. Seeing guys like Reddick go and play that way gets difficult to watch after a while. With that said, it seems like we develop solid hitting all the way through, which is a positive. At the same time, it seems that all the trading of prospects and the up and down "fill in this position while the other guy is hurt" has seemed to be incredibly hurtful to some prospects we've had.

I'm all for building for the farm system, and I'm all for waiting for it even when it comes to building a winning team. Other people have said it as well, big names aren't necessarily the problem, but they shouldn't be entirely relied on either. However, it seems that when big pieces are brought in to complement what is already a pretty good team, things go best. I'd prefer to see people come up from the farm, and then the Sox fill in with good players at positions they need to. My mind goes to the Washington Nationals....they were able to draft good, develop good, and then fill in with guys that made a difference from the outside.

[jacksonianmarch]

The Yankees have an injury plagued team. Jeter coming off an ankle injury. Ask Stephen Drew how that goes.

Stephen Drew had a distal tib/fib fracture instead of a malleolar fracture. Humongous difference.


ARod out until July. Replaced by Youk, who is barely league average.

You was effectively right around the WAR of Chavez in a down yr. I agree he is a wildcard, but I think he is more an .800OPS guy than a .745OPS guy if handled right


Pettitte hasn't started more than 21 games since 2009.
That's not really a fair statement since he didnt start in 2011, didnt make his debut in the bigs until May last yr and broke his ankle on a freak play in August. I dont expect 30 starts from him, but I do expect a lot more than 12


Hughes has a career 4.4 era and has been average or below average in each of the past 3 seasons.

In 2009, 2010, and 2012, he was above average. And, btw, he outperformed every one of your pitchers in 2012, yet he is average and Buchholz is a stud. How convenient. Hughes also dealt with dead arm at the beginning of the season. Once his stuff came back he was a solid #2. You guys like to justify Buchholz using the same marker, "Well, he was coming off injury and stuff, so, like the first 6 weeks don't count, and stuff." Use the same with Hughes and you'll see he actually pitched just as well as your supposed rotation saviour while giving more inning. Hypocrisy quashed!


You've got a RF who hasn't posted a .700 OPS since 2010.
Yeah, the guy who has been stuck on a team that hasnt seen the postseason in a decade gets infused back into a playoff situation and all of a sudden starts hitting like the old days. And using OPS with Ichiro isnt the best method of evaluation anyway since in his illustrious career, he's only a .780OPS guy. His speed, defense and hitting ability combined will put him in the above average category yet again in 2013


And Phelps threw what, 100 innings last year? What are you expecting from him.

To battle Nova for the #5 spot. And since when has throwing 100IP of 2.0WAR production with a K per inning and a low walk rate a bad thing? He did nothing but dominate his first yr in the bigs and he's being knocked for the role he played. Oh, brother.


The Yankees are a very old, injury prone team who counts on the long ball too much.
They are old, they do have injuries, but we've had an older roster than the sox for a decade now, and who seems to have more injuries on a yearly basis. That's right, the sox! And the counting on the longball thing is relevant, but when you remove Swisher, Chavez and possibly Ibanez from the equation and throw in a grinder like Youk and speedsters like Gardner and Ichiro, you are going to see a little bit of a different brand of Yankees ball in 2013


The Orioles went 16-2 in extra inning games and went 29-9 in 1 run games. Complete and utter fluke season.

And they brought up Manny Machado who will be in his first full season. He will put up big numbers in Camden Yards and will likely be the next superstar. They should get a full yr of Jason Hammel as well. They're a tough team under Buck, so I dont expect them to go away completely. They'll be in the division into September, IMO.


Saying the Rays, who lost 230 innings of 3.52 era baseball, are going to be in it because they're scrappy is lazy and inaccurate.

I have agreed as much in saying the Rays lost some production in the rotation and the pen. But they should have a full yr of Longoria and will be starting the top offensive prospect in baseball. They also have a ready made replacement for Shields in Archer who struck out 36 in his first 29 innings in the bigs. I expect them to take a step back in the pitching department, but depending on how Archer produces and Moore improves on his rookie season, some of it may be absorbed


The Jays are very solid and are my pick right now. But that doesn't mean that the entire division is solid. Not by any means. This is by far and away the most open I've seen this division in a long time. A slew of 82-88 win teams. 90 could very well win the East.

The offseason winners rarely end up playing out nowadays, but I do agree that the Jays look pretty solid in all phases this yr

[Lucienbel]

The Orioles will be an interesting team this year. I think a large part of how they do is going to depend on what they can get out of their pitching.... They certainly hit some luck all over last year. With that said, I do agree that counting them out wouldn't be right. They have a solid offense and a lot of guys who play hard. At the very least, they're not going to be an easy team to beat. Not sure if I'm comfortable saying they'll be in it until September, but they're going to be a decent team again.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Jackso - does Hanrahan count as a significant move on our sig bet? What about Hanrahan and Jones? And if they trade for Porcello?

Just trying to figure out what's significant.

[SCM33]

They can make the playoffs...... absolutely they can.

The shitshow is gone (Beckett, Crawford and Gonzalez).
The sideshow is gone (Bobby Valentine).

The toilet has been flushed.

Remember, the 2000 and 2001 Redsox teams were also fucking miserable. They had chaos in the clubhouse, it just wasn't reported the same way as it is now. They flushed it out, and in 2002 they were competitive, they won 93 games. It can happen again in 2012.

[onlybereaved]

They can make the playoffs...... absolutely they can.

The shitshow is gone (Beckett, Crawford and Gonzalez).
The sideshow is gone (Bobby Valentine).

The toilet has been flushed.

Remember, the 2000 and 2001 Redsox teams were also fucking miserable. They had chaos in the clubhouse, it just wasn't reported the same way as it is now. They flushed it out, and in 2002 they were competitive, they won 93 games. It can happen again in 2012.

Right?

I love this way of thinking - for all we know the team could go down in history and pillage everyone with a less than impressive 'on paper' roster.

[Palodios]

Right?

I love this way of thinking - for all we know the team could go down in history and pillage everyone with a less than impressive 'on paper' roster.

It seems that other teams counts on their players returning to career best states, and we have a habit of looking for career norms. Its a shame that the Red Sox have failed to simply attain that-- hitting and pitching as well as they have for their entire career. But the Red Sox have some very good players who have done very well in the past.

Want to put it into perspective? The Red Sox have former all-stars at :
1B
2B
CF
RF
DH
SP1
SP2
SP3
SP4
RP1
RP2

Plus two young guys with all-star potential at SS, 3B and an outside shot at C. They've created a platoon that should be very effective in LF. A Japan Series MVP in Uehara who has the highest KK/BB ratio in MLB history with elite setup potential, and a pile of high ceiling guys behind him like Tazawa, Aceves, Bard etc. And a ton of depth behind almost every position.

The thing is... this team needs to perform to his capabilities. It hasn't in a while, but if this is the year, then they are far better than they're given credit for.

[Bellhorn04]

When it comes to my own somewhat pessimistic projection of 84-78, I think I am being influenced by two things as much as anyone else is: the 'bottom line' effect and the 'recency' effect. Both of those effects fix on the indisputable facts that we were 69-93 last year and that we haven't made any huge upgrades on paper.

Getting more specific about key players, I don't think there's any getting past our two best starters, Lester and Buchholz. Last year they had ERA's of 4.82 and 4.56 respectively. If you stick with the bottom line and the recency, you can't assume that they will be better than that in 2013. Sure, Lester pitched better than that the last 2 months, and Buchholz had a great stretch of games in mid-season. But no amount of parsing makes the 4.82 or the 4.56 go away.

I'll say this: if both Lester and Buch can at least give us a combined 390 innings and each knock at least a run off their ERA's, the Red Sox should make the playoffs.

[Dojji]

It seems that other teams counts on their players returning to career best states, and we have a habit of looking for career norms. Its a shame that the Red Sox have failed to simply attain that-- hitting and pitching as well as they have for their entire career. But the Red Sox have some very good players who have done very well in the past.

Want to put it into perspective? The Red Sox have former all-stars at :
1B
2B
CF
RF
DH
SP1
SP2
SP3
SP4
RP1
RP2

Plus two young guys with all-star potential at SS, 3B and an outside shot at C. They've created a platoon that should be very effective in LF. A Japan Series MVP in Uehara who has the highest KK/BB ratio in MLB history with elite setup potential, and a pile of high ceiling guys behind him like Tazawa, Aceves, Bard etc. And a ton of depth behind almost every position.

The thing is... this team needs to perform to his capabilities. It hasn't in a while, but if this is the year, then they are far better than they're given credit for.

I agree. This is a team that can get into the playoffs with a shot to go further. Players have to play up to their ability, commit to paying the price, and gain confidence in their teammates. If they can do that, I think they'll shock a lot of people.

[lospunchados]

In 2009, 2010, and 2012, he was above average. And, btw, he outperformed every one of your pitchers in 2012, yet he is average and Buchholz is a stud. How convenient. Hughes also dealt with dead arm at the beginning of the season. Once his stuff came back he was a solid #2. You guys like to justify Buchholz using the same marker, "Well, he was coming off injury and stuff, so, like the first 6 weeks don't count, and stuff." Use the same with Hughes and you'll see he actually pitched just as well as your supposed rotation saviour while giving more inning. Hypocrisy quashed!





I'm not sure what basis you are going on but Hughes was above league average for era in 2010 and 2012. hughes does have a lot of parallels with Bucholz though. Both have had trouble staying healthy and can look very dominant at times. Both aren't huge strikeout pitchers, and Hughes had his best year K's wise ( and era wise)in 2009when he was predominantly a reliever.

Hughes has been mostly average as a starter but showed much higher potential as a reliever. Bucholz, in different seasons has been great, above average, average and bad as a starter. His problem has always been himself, either by toomany walks or staying healthy.

[Designated Hater]

The Red Sox and the Yankees will be battling all year for position standing - last place. The other teams in the AL East are good, young, athletic, and ready to win. The Red Sox want to move forward (at least for the next couple years) with players that are place holders for undeveloped young minor league talent. We are crossing the bridge and it's going to be ugly. They may very well be better than last year and I absolutely see the entire division finishing over .500, but that is going to mean the Red Sox are nothing more than an 82 win team.

The Yankees are OLD. Old, old, old. They will compete with their pitching being what it is and Robinson Cano, being just about the only piece of YOUNG superstar talent.

Here is my AL East prediction for 2013:
1) Baltimore
2) Toronto
3) Tampa
4) New York
5) Boston

[jacksonianmarch]

Jackso - does Hanrahan count as a significant move on our sig bet? What about Hanrahan and Jones? And if they trade for Porcello?

Just trying to figure out what's significant.

The current move with the Pirates isnt significant enough to end our sig bet

[jacksonianmarch]

I'm not sure what basis you are going on but Hughes was above league average for era in 2010 and 2012. hughes does have a lot of parallels with Bucholz though. Both have had trouble staying healthy and can look very dominant at times. Both aren't huge strikeout pitchers, and Hughes had his best year K's wise ( and era wise)in 2009when he was predominantly a reliever.

Hughes has been mostly average as a starter but showed much higher potential as a reliever. Bucholz, in different seasons has been great, above average, average and bad as a starter. His problem has always been himself, either by toomany walks or staying healthy.

Hughes struck out close to 8 per 9IP. That's a strikeout pitcher. And he walked 2.1 batters per 9IP, so it isnt the walks that are causing his problems. Hughes' problem is the long ball. 35 HR's allowed last yr is what has caused his ERA to be in the average to slightly above average range. If he can limit the longball down to even the low 20s (which is still high) then his ERA will drop drastically.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Hughes struck out close to 8 per 9IP. That's a strikeout pitcher. And he walked 2.1 batters per 9IP, so it isnt the walks that are causing his problems. Hughes' problem is the long ball. 35 HR's allowed last yr is what has caused his ERA to be in the average to slightly above average range. If he can limit the longball down to even the low 20s (which is still high) then his ERA will drop drastically.

If this was the problem, then his xFIP would not be higher than his ERA. xFIP normalizes HR/FB rates. Hughes problem is that he's a fly ball pitcher. His HR/FB was 12.4%, which is not nearly as bad as you make it seem. League average HR/FB in 2012 was 11.8% for SP.

The problem is that Hughes allowed 47.6% FB, compared to league average of 33.9%.

He's a fly ball pitcher and that does not bode well at all, especially in the AL East.

[SoxSport]

The Red Sox team after the Dodger deal last year wasn't really a team. And they didn't have a full team in the first half due to injuries to core players. When you add in all the managerial and coaching dysfunctions, right up to the front office, last years' performance doesn't tell anything about this year.
And that's without all the changes in personnel, coaching, manager, etc, which have occurred--for the better.
Most people think the Red Sox will be much better this year. How much better is hard to say. My guess is they finish in the middle of the pack. But they are due for a season of good luck--haven't had one for awhile. And luck is a big factor for any team in a season.

[jacksonianmarch]

If this was the problem, then his xFIP would not be higher than his ERA. xFIP normalizes HR/FB rates. Hughes problem is that he's a fly ball pitcher. His HR/FB was 12.4%, which is not nearly as bad as you make it seem. League average HR/FB in 2012 was 11.8% for SP.

The problem is that Hughes allowed 47.6% FB, compared to league average of 33.9%.

He's a fly ball pitcher and that does not bode well at all, especially in the AL East.

And in Yankee Stadium. He's an FA at season's end and a guy I expect to leave NY for Cali as he is a Cali kid. If he signs on in a place like SD, he will end up being a Cy Young candidate.

[SCM33]

Here is my AL East prediction for 2013:
1) Baltimore
2) Toronto
3) Tampa
4) New York
5) Boston

Boston has MORE talent than all of those teams.

They just need to play to their capabilities.

1. Tampa
2. Boston
3. Toronto
4. New York
5. Baltimore

[Lucienbel]

And in Yankee Stadium. He's an FA at season's end and a guy I expect to leave NY for Cali as he is a Cali kid. If he signs on in a place like SD, he will end up being a Cy Young candidate.

That's pretty high regards, but I won't disagree entirely. I think going out to the West Coast would really benefit him. Big ball parks play well for pitchers like him. I think going out West would give him a lot of big ball parks to pitch in and he'd start putting up numbers more reflective of the pitcher he is.

[BSN07]

Not sure if this had been discussed yet or not but here's my view of what the Sox have done this off season. With or without Napoli the roster is pretty good. If somethings in the rotation fall their way they will be competitive.

If things don't work out they have loaded themselves with pieces that will be sought after at the TDL. Pedroia, Middlebrooks, and maybe Papi are the only guys they probably don't want to move. Victorino would probably involve adding $ but he is probably a guy they want to keep around for positive influence on a young team. Everyone else could be considered fair game. They could absolutely stack themselves with young talent and either go with that talent or use some of it for high end proven MLB players next winter.

[SoxSport]

Can't see TB improving after trading 2 of their top 5 starting pitchers. Pitching is what they are all about.

[TutGadol]

Boston has MORE talent than all of those teams.

They just need to play to their capabilities.

1. Tampa
2. Boston
3. Toronto
4. New York
5. Baltimore

How?

Let's go team by team.

BJs- They got better lineup, better rotation, we both have crappy 'pens. Jays win.

Rays- I'd say we have the better lineup, they obviously have the better rotation and D, their 'pen is a question mark but I think they have it better then us with all the young starters. At 2013 I'm not sure who's better.

Yanks- Honestly they have a better lineup, much better bullpen and probably a better rotation too. Advantage *sob* Yanks.

We're better then the O's, I don't see how their going to repeat.

Overall I see it as either 3rd or 4th for us. And with the tough teams in the west we'll be lucky to get into the lower WC.

[Lucienbel]

How?

Let's go team by team.

BJs- They got better lineup, better rotation, we both have crappy 'pens. Jays win.

Rays- I'd say we have the better lineup, they obviously have the better rotation and D, their 'pen is a question mark but I think they have it better then us with all the young starters. At 2013 I'm not sure who's better.

Yanks- Honestly they have a better lineup, much better bullpen and probably a better rotation too. Advantage *sob* Yanks.

We're better then the O's, I don't see how their going to repeat.

Overall I see it as either 3rd or 4th for us. And with the tough teams in the west we'll be lucky to get into the lower WC.

I have a difficult time saying the Sox have a bad pen right now. They have done some good stuff to shore up the pen and I don't think they'll be a weak point of this years team.

[Meh]

I saw the Red Sox will have a 175/180 million payroll, assuming the Napoli deal gets done, but I look at them and say where did they spend their money? Same thing with the Yankees and their 205 million payroll, it really makes me appreciate what lower market teams can do. anyways I think they have a shot at one of the wild cards. I believe the Yankees, Rangers, A's, and Red Sox will battle it out for those two spots and I like the Yankees and Rangers chances at grabbing those two spots.

[Meh]

Here is my AL East prediction for 2013:
1) Baltimore
2) Toronto
3) Tampa
4) New York
5) Boston
Is that you Buck?! Not hating on the O's but I think they won't make the playoffs this year, but I do respect what they have done this year.

[willyssox]

I am impressed with how many well written, intelligent posts there are on how well the Sox will do... On other sites I am known for my mile long responses but all I have to say on this subject is WE WILL GO NO FURTHER THAN OUR STARTING ROTATION WILL TAKE US. What better example than S.F. that Pitching is what wins Championships.
With that said IMO we wont go far. For some reason and for 3 seasons in a row now Ben C. has wished, hoped... that Lester & Buchholz ( Beckett too before being traded) will be the clear leaders and get us to the Promised land and for 2 of those seasons they havent got it done, period, so what on Earth leads him or anyone else to think they will suddenly lead this team? Just adding Dempster ( who in limited time has stunk in the AL), clearly isnt enough. I dont understand why they didnt make a bigger push ( maybe Lester & Ellsbury) for Cliff Lee. I also dont understand why they wouldnt give up a supplemental draft pick to sign Lohse. If I had my way the Red Sox starting rotation would have been 1. Lee, 2. Lohse, 3. Buchholz, 4. Marcum, 5. Doubront.

Lee- 6-9, 3.16ERA, 1.11WHIP
Lohse- 16-3, 2.86ERA, 1.09WHIP
Marcum- 7-4, 3.70ERA, 1.27WHIP

We have a nice bullpen now but what good will they be when Lester and company routinely give up 4,5,6... runs a game? Which was the norm last year, I mean just look at how few "Quality Starts" those guys had last year. Perhaps someone can explain, in detail and with real proof how or why Lester (or anyone else for that matter) is going to turn it around and really make the difference.

[Bellhorn04]

We have a nice bullpen now but what good will they be when Lester and company routinely give up 4,5,6... runs a game? Which was the norm last year, I mean just look at how few "Quality Starts" those guys had last year. Perhaps someone can explain, in detail and with real proof how or why Lester (or anyone else for that matter) is going to turn it around and really make the difference.

Nobody can say for sure that Lester will turn it around and nobody can provide any proof. There are, however, many, many examples of pitchers turning it around after a season like Lester just had. Keep in mind how young he is and how good he was for several years. He appears to have lost a bit of velocity, which is a concern, but he still throws reasonably hard. He may just need some 'tweaking' of his mechanics and now he will have his old pitching coach (Farrell) looking at him and a brand new pitching coach (Nieves) as well.

And others here are better at tackling these technical questions than I am.

[User Name?]

I am impressed with how many well written, intelligent posts there are on how well the Sox will do... On other sites I am known for my mile long responses but all I have to say on this subject is WE WILL GO NO FURTHER THAN OUR STARTING ROTATION WILL TAKE US. What better example than S.F. that Pitching is what wins Championships.
With that said IMO we wont go far. For some reason and for 3 seasons in a row now Ben C. has wished, hoped... that Lester & Buchholz ( Beckett too before being traded) will be the clear leaders and get us to the Promised land and for 2 of those seasons they havent got it done, period, so what on Earth leads him or anyone else to think they will suddenly lead this team? Just adding Dempster ( who in limited time has stunk in the AL), clearly isnt enough. I dont understand why they didnt make a bigger push ( maybe Lester & Ellsbury) for Cliff Lee. I also dont understand why they wouldnt give up a supplemental draft pick to sign Lohse. If I had my way the Red Sox starting rotation would have been 1. Lee, 2. Lohse, 3. Buchholz, 4. Marcum, 5. Doubront.

Lee- 6-9, 3.16ERA, 1.11WHIP
Lohse- 16-3, 2.86ERA, 1.09WHIP
Marcum- 7-4, 3.70ERA, 1.27WHIP

We have a nice bullpen now but what good will they be when Lester and company routinely give up 4,5,6... runs a game? Which was the norm last year, I mean just look at how few "Quality Starts" those guys had last year. Perhaps someone can explain, in detail and with real proof how or why Lester (or anyone else for that matter) is going to turn it around and really make the difference.

Philadelphia has made it clear they won't trade Lee. Can't get him if they won't trade him. You criticize the Dempster sining then ask for Lohse, who is less consistent but with worse peripherals. Marcum is still possible, but I think they want to give Felix/Morales a chance, which makes sense on many levels, but I don't agree with.

[User Name?]

Nobody can say for sure that Lester will turn it around and nobody can provide any proof. There are, however, many, many examples of pitchers turning it around after a season like Lester just had. Keep in mind how young he is and how good he was for several years. He appears to have lost a bit of velocity, which is a concern, but he still throws reasonably hard. He may just need some 'tweaking' of his mechanics and now he will have his old pitching coach (Farrell) looking at him and a brand new pitching coach (Nieves) as well.

And others here are better at tackling these technical questions than I am.

His velocity last year was right at career averages, and you have to account for the mess his mechanics admittedly were.

[Behindenemylines]

Sox will only compete in the AL East if they get consistent SP in 2013. Lester and Buchholtz have to be top of the rotation starters that are more consistent. Doubront has to make the next step, and Lackey needs to be the Lackey of the Angel years. An Dempster needs to eat innings and have success in the AL. There are a lot of ifs here . . . but the Sox will only be as good as these guys.

[cbbosox]

Sox will only compete in the AL East if they get consistent SP in 2013. Lester and Buchholtz have to be top of the rotation starters that are more consistent. Doubront has to make the next step, and Lackey needs to be the Lackey of the Angel years. An Dempster needs to eat innings and have success in the AL. There are a lot of ifs here . . . but the Sox will only be as good as these guys.

Agree 100% the sox could be good if these guys do their job
The. Orioles almost won the division last year.who has more talent the 2012 L's or the 2013 sox?

[mvp 78]

Lohse on an ALE team would be a nightmare. I'd pass on him. He wants too much $$$ and too many years.

[iortiz]

Feel like last year. Tons of ?s in our rotation. We haven't improved that department since last 3 yrs and I do not why. Dempster is not the answer. Lackey? Makes me throw up when I see his name in the rotation. I like Douby but you just can't rest our hopes in his shoulders. Buch? Can he stay healthy?. Lester needs to bounce back otherwise we're last place again.

I don't like the scenario at all but hopefully these guys at least post their career numbers or something around in order to compete next yr.

Our chances? As I said before, at very best we could compete for the 2nd WC spot.

Realistically, we are a 4th place team in the ALE as assembled which is a shame for a big market/high payroll team like the Red Sox.

[jung]

Absolutely agree on the SP. That is why the strength of the bullpen is simply not an argument I have the stomach for. The bullpen was the bedrock anchor of the team last year. That and a quarter gets you a cup of coffee.

I just don't see this rotation "emerging" as competitive in 2013. As I have said before while there are those with a more optimistic view, I think Felix upper reaches are a rotation 3. Morales has more upside but is more likely to crash and burn. I am torn on Lackey. As a number of pitchers proved last year, plate discipline appears to have become a lost art, particularly in the AL East where our post season representatives turned out to be an utter embarrassment to ML generally and the AL East most particularly. In reality that was a trend we saw developing all season as pitchers who could locate even with little in the way of stuff just cut through some of these AL East lineups like hot knives through butter. All you needed was a slider to be on your way to Cy Young consideration pitching against these guys. So who knows.....However if things were per normal I would be decidedly negative on Lackey's 2013 chances.

I think Lester will recover and I think Buch will be Buch. But I don't expect Lester to climb all the way back to the top of the mountain in one off season. As for Mr Dempster I think the scouting reports will prove out. He will excel against the dregs and get his clock cleaned against the better teams. My concern in that regard is that there are a few more "better" teams in the AL than there has been recently.

[User Name?]

Feel like last year. Tons of ?s in our rotation. We haven't improved that department since last 3 yrs and I do not why. Dempster is not the answer. Lackey? Makes me throw up when I see his name in the rotation. I like Douby but you just can't rest our hopes in his shoulders. Buch? Can he stay healthy?. Lester needs to bounce back otherwise we're last place again.

I don't like the scenario at all but hopefully these guys at least post their career numbers or something around in order to compete next yr.

Our chances? As I said before, at very best we could compete for the 2nd WC spot.

Realistically, we are a 4th place team in the ALE as assembled which is a shame for a big market/high payroll team like the Red Sox.

Yet with a guy like Marcum and finalizing the Napoli signing, the Sox could very much position themselves as much more than "2nd WC contenders".

Also, the payroll argument is inconsequential. How much money you spend is not an indicator of how well a team will/should do. That is a lesson the Red Sox are learning very painfully. It's not how much money you spend, it's how you spend the amount of money you have.

[iortiz]

Yet with a guy like Marcum and finalizing the Napoli signing, the Sox could very much position themselves as much more than "2nd WC contenders".

Also, the payroll argument is inconsequential. How much money you spend is not an indicator of how well a team will/should do. That is a lesson the Red Sox are learning very painfully. It's not how much money you spend, it's how you spend the amount of money you have.

As I said, IMO (in my realistic glasses) we are a 4th place team next year, but even with the team as assembled (very unlikely IMO) we could fight for the 2nd WC spot at very best. On the other hand, If you bring a guy like Marcum and sign Napoli (and stays healthy) you have better chances/more arguments to get that WC spot.

Yup, they haven't used the budget properly, say the last 4 yrs, reason why I've been blaming the FO last years.

[User Name?]

As I said, IMO (in my realistic glasses) we are a 4th place team next year, but even with the team as assembled (very unlikely IMO) we could fight for the 2nd WC spot at very best. On the other hand, If you bring a guy like Marcum and sign Napoli (and stays healthy) you have better chances/more arguments to get that WC spot.

Yup, they haven't used the budget properly, say the last 4 yrs, reason why I've been blaming the FO last years.

The problem is that they succumbed to fan pressure for big splashes. The only reason i've always defended the team's Front Office is because i feel that we, as fans, are partly to blame for the team's conversion into what it currently is. People clamored for the big-ticket FA's and drove Epstein out of what made him a successful team architect. Lucchino caved in to the pressure to make more money and the results have been disastrous.

No more Billy Muellers or Kevin Millar etc. People wanted a big-ticket signing to keep team "buzz" and look at where it's taken the team. Every time they failed to sign a big-ticket FA they were interested in the resorted to getting the next best option and that's what netted us Lackey. Afterwards, the need to create media "buzz" around the team netted us Crawford. Both disasters.

For these reasons i am content with the job Cherington has done thus far although there is room for improvement. You can't pine for them to spend their money wisely on one hand then complain when they start doing so on the other. Not saying you do this, but it's the general conondrum i've seen amongst Red Sox fans in general.

[SoxSport]

The important thing with a rotation is to get the proper coaching, to insure the pitchers pitch to their potential. The past few years, the Red Sox coaching went to pot--and last year they made it worse--showing Lucchino/Henry didn't understand the problem. They had an organization that had been around for awhile, felt entitled after winning two championships, and probably hadn't had enough new blood, especially in the front office which lost a couple of their top people plus all the consultants (James, etc) which were let go a few years back. This year, I think they'll be much improved. The manager is attuned to the pitching as the former pitching coach, and the front office has been reinforced with James and a few others. In particular, I'm looking for the starters to be properly prepared with scouting reports, to avoid early inning blowouts. I understand that wasn't always the case last year.

The pitching should be much improved, as long as Ben doesn't get any bright ideas about converting Hanrahan to a starter. :)

[Lucienbel]

As I said, IMO (in my realistic glasses) we are a 4th place team next year, but even with the team as assembled (very unlikely IMO) we could fight for the 2nd WC spot at very best. On the other hand, If you bring a guy like Marcum and sign Napoli (and stays healthy) you have better chances/more arguments to get that WC spot.

Yup, they haven't used the budget properly, say the last 4 yrs, reason why I've been blaming the FO last years.

I'm also riding on the Marcum train. Granted he had some health stuff last year, when he's going good he's shown he's at least capable of pitching in a solid rotation in a competitive division. Still a little baffled as to why he hasn't drawn more interest from teams.

I think this team has some potential to surprise some people. Not blow people away, but I think they could end up being surprising. To me, they seem to be building in the right direction. Not sure why they leave the rotation alone so much, but maybe that's something their holding out for the future for better options. I really don't think they're out there with a goal of going to the playoffs this year. As others have said, if things work out good they'll have an outside chance still.

[mvp 78]

If you're feeling poopy about 2015, enjoy reading how down we all were about 2013.

[Bellhorn04]

Also, too bad about the demise of Shaun Marcum. SoxSport, not so much.

[User Name?]

^LOL. Well said.

[vjcsmoke]

I think they are around an 80-85 win team right now. Which means we will be mediocre and likely finish just outside the playoffs.

If they sign/trade for an ace I can see them jumping to a 90+ win team. And that should be enough to make the playoffs.

[User Name?]

You didn''t read the thread title brah.

[Palodios]

Feel like last year. Tons of ?s in our rotation. We haven't improved that department since last 3 yrs and I do not why. Dempster is not the answer. Lackey? Makes me throw up when I see his name in the rotation. I like Douby but you just can't rest our hopes in his shoulders. Buch? Can he stay healthy?. Lester needs to bounce back otherwise we're last place again.

I don't like the scenario at all but hopefully these guys at least post their career numbers or something around in order to compete next yr.

Our chances? As I said before, at very best we could compete for the 2nd WC spot.

Realistically, we are a 4th place team in the ALE as assembled which is a shame for a big market/high payroll team like the Red Sox.

iortiz, please read this and gain some humility. You were calling the 2013 Red Sox a 4th place team because of the pitching, just as you are now. Trust in Ben.

And as always, I am willing to eat the humble pie myself. Many of those posts are about Shaun Marcum, a guy I thought would be a key signing in 2013. D'oh!

[a700hitter]

iortiz, please read this and gain some humility. You were calling the 2013 Red Sox a 4th place team because of the pitching, just as you are now. Trust in Ben.

And as always, I am willing to eat the humble pie myself. Many of those posts are about Shaun Marcum, a guy I thought would be a key signing in 2013. D'oh!Trust in Ben? He finished last in 2 of his 3 seasons at the helm. The team is 8 games under .500 in his tenure. I can't remember the last time a Red Sox GM had a sub .500 record over a 3 year period. Seriously, why should we "trust him"? Because he got extremely fortunate in that Lester rebounded to ace status and Buch came out of the gates at 11-0. That is what catpulted the 2013 team. That plus Lackey having a great season after coming off surgery, and dodging a bullett that when Lackey left his 2013 opener cradling his arm that he missed no starts over the course of the season. I don't trust in Ben. I am thankful for the Championship, but I am not convinced that this guy is a top executive. After 2013, it was premature to be singing his praises. He hadn't hit on any model for cost-contained success. It is pretty obvious that he is still striving to figure out how to have consistent success. This year cost-containment is out the window. They are blowing away the luxury cap. If they don't take a big step forward in 2015, he will be a big money flop.

[Palodios]

I am thankful for the Championship, but

It certainly doesn't sound like it.

In 2012, he was given a pile of huge contracts for underachieving players, Bobby Valentine, and an empty farm system. He hasn't been perfect by any means, but every year he has retooled the team for the future. Let's see April --and the full roster -- before calling it complete junk.

[User Name?]

Pal, there needs to be some whining around here, otherwise talksox wouldn't be talksox.

[cp176]

It certainly doesn't sound like it.

In 2012, he was given a pile of huge contracts for underachieving players, Bobby Valentine, and an empty farm system. He hasn't been perfect by any means, but every year he has retooled the team for the future. Let's see April --and the full roster -- before calling it complete junk.

I too am very thankful for the championships that have been won. 2013 was just magical. My concern is with a previous post regarding our front office caving to fan pressure and signing free agents to huge contracts. I hope that that is not the case. I want to be able to voice my opinion but I certainly don't want to sway theirs'. Our front office has a job to do and they are paid well to do it. None of us are on the front line. We have opinions and that is it. I want them to be competitive every year! I think they should be if the job is being adequately done. I might not agree but I will always support.

[a700hitter]

I too am very thankful for the championships that have been won. 2013 was just magical. My concern is with a previous post regarding our front office caving to fan pressure and signing free agents to huge contracts. I hope that that is not the case. I want to be able to voice my opinion but I certainly don't want to sway theirs'. Our front office has a job to do and they are paid well to do it. None of us are on the front line. We have opinions and that is it. I want them to be competitive every year! I think they should be if the job is being adequately done. I might not agree but I will always support.Some people here must think that the FO monitors message boards and reacts to them. You and I know that if they are doing that they shouldn't be running an elite franchise. I do think that ticket sales and TV and radio ratings are factors in their decision making process and they should be as they affect their bottom line.

[cp176]

Some people here must think that the FO monitors message boards and reacts to them. You and I know that if they are doing that they shouldn't be running an elite franchise. I do think that ticket sales and TV and radio ratings are factors in their decision making process and they should be as they affect their bottom line.

Agreed - I have some fun with this. I follow them with a passion but that passion is limited in scope. I may not always agree with decisions they make and I might get lucky and be right once in awhile regardless I will support them. Might not see me in the ballpark but I will support. It is all about choices. I also don't pretend to be something I am not. I was taught early on that you have to have a grasp of your limitations as you set your goals. Just like you, I still want that frontline thrower.

[seabeachfred]

Personally I think this is the season that will tell us just about all we need to know about Cherington and Farrell. If they both flop with what they do it should be evident to anyone but a died in the wool Pollyanna that these two are not big enough for the job. For the manager it will be four miserable seasons of managing to one good one---a horrific record that would get a batter benche (though it took even less than that before they threw in the towel on the pathetic Bradley). For Cherington it would be three bad years in four and don't forget we've finished last two of the past three seasons, and the Red Sox should be able to contend every damn year---maybe not win the division every year but contend for it. I think the jury will decide by next October.

[Kimmi]

Trust in Ben? He finished last in 2 of his 3 seasons at the helm. The team is 8 games under .500 in his tenure. I can't remember the last time a Red Sox GM had a sub .500 record over a 3 year period. Seriously, why should we "trust him"? Because he got extremely fortunate in that Lester rebounded to ace status and Buch came out of the gates at 11-0. That is what catpulted the 2013 team. That plus Lackey having a great season after coming off surgery, and dodging a bullett that when Lackey left his 2013 opener cradling his arm that he missed no starts over the course of the season. I don't trust in Ben. I am thankful for the Championship, but I am not convinced that this guy is a top executive. After 2013, it was premature to be singing his praises. He hadn't hit on any model for cost-contained success. It is pretty obvious that he is still striving to figure out how to have consistent success. This year cost-containment is out the window. They are blowing away the luxury cap. If they don't take a big step forward in 2015, he will be a big money flop.


IMO, 2014 was about as big a fluke season as any team could have. As far as I've read, I have not seen anyone predict or foresee the offensive drop off that the team incurred last season. Sure, most people expected there to be a drop off, but not anywhere close to that magnitude.

IMO, Ben's only fault last season was not having a viable back up plan on the left side of the infield or in CF, should the starters get injured or underperform. One thing I like about this year's team is that the depth is much improved.

[a700hitter]

It certainly doesn't sound like it.

In 2012, he was given a pile of huge contracts for underachieving players, Bobby Valentine, and an empty farm system. He hasn't been perfect by any means, but every year he has retooled the team for the future. Let's see April --and the full roster -- before calling it complete junk.I was at game 6 at Fenway and I am very thankful. That doesn't mean that I will suspend judgment going forward. Also, I am not calling anything "complete junk". Cherries just does not inspire me with confidence.

[Kimmi]

As far as predicitions for the 2013 season went, you start with the Pythagorean W-L record of 74-88, not the actual record of 69-93. Factor in the subtraction of Bobby Valentine, and that team was easily at 85 wins before making their first offseason move.

[User Name?]

As far as predicitions for the 2013 season went, you start with the Pythagorean W-L record of 74-88, not the actual record of 69-93. Factor in the subtraction of Bobby Valentine, and that team was easily at 85 wins before making their first offseason move.

I really, really like you. Please stick around and post more!

[Kimmi]

I really, really like you. Please stick around and post more!


Thank you. I enjoy posting and discussing/debating baseball. The issue for me, usually, is finding the time to do so.

[vjcsmoke]

You didn''t read the thread title brah.

Ooops. Who necro'd the 2013 thread? LOL. NM then. Anyone want to talk about 2015? Hopefully we have a thread for that somewhere...

[mvp 78]

It was bumped to limit the "you don't know what you're talking about" nonsense that goes on here. We dumped on the Sox that offseason and they end up winning the WS. We all know nothing. We are all shitty prognosticators that get paid to do non-baseball things in our regular lives.

[Behindenemylines]

Some people here must think that the FO monitors message boards and reacts to them. You and I know that if they are doing that they shouldn't be running an elite franchise. I do think that ticket sales and TV and radio ratings are factors in their decision making process and they should be as they affect their bottom line.

If the FO was basing their decisions on the message boards then Lester would still be here. As much as I wanted Lester to stay, I think the offer made to Lester was fair. The Cubs had to over pay to get him.