V-Mart hopes to avoid FA Market

[BSN07]

"I don't want to be jumping around, I don’t want to go somewhere else, First, I didn’t want to go out of the Indians organization. Then I'm out, and now I'm here. I came to the place where a lot of players dream to come and a lot of players wish to play here in Boston. So I'm here, I do really want to stay here and hopefully end my career in Boston."


http://www.bostonherald.com/sports/baseball/red_sox/view.bg?&articleid=1232955

Me likes to hear this :D

Hopefully the FO feels the same way. I think a 4 year deal with maybe an option would be enough for him to re-up with the team.

[das11209]

I have mixed emotions here. He will be the most sought out catcher FA after Mauer signs with Minny. Question is if he will remain a catcher. As a catcher he is very valuable - but as a DH or 1B - he is not even close as valuable. Personally even though it will be risky - I would like to see if he can be a servicable catcher this season. If there is a priority - I want the FA to lock up Becket first.

[BSN07]

I think he still worth having around even if he is 1B/DHing.

[example1]

Yeah, I've always liked Martinez, even when he was with CLE. He sounds like he might be open to a reasonable deal for a number of years and I think the Sox ought to take advantage.

I would be just fine with them making a 4 year/$50m offer. If he really wants to avoid FA that's a nice deal. If not then they might get him for less at the end of the season, or he could end up elsewhere.

[TheMino007]

V-Mart is an interesting situation. If we decide to keep him as a catcher for the future, then the Sox need to go after him. Who knows if Joe Mauer will be on the market or if Wagner or Exposito pan out. Problem is, how much longer is V-Mart a viable option at catcher? As a catcher he is one of the best offensive threats, but if you move him to 1st base he loses a lot of his offensive value. I would give V-Mart a 3 year deal, but anything longer than that is pushing it.

[msubulldogs21]

He will be the most sought out catcher FA after Mauer signs with Minny.

Why is Mauer re-signing with the Twins such a given? Granted if they don't resign him I think they should be contracted, but I don't think this is a gauranteed thing here.


As a catcher he is very valuable - but as a DH or 1B - he is not even close as valuable.

Regardless of what position he plays he is a very good hitter and I want to keep him around.

[jacksonianmarch]

The sox have been smart here in waiting. VMart needs to prove that he can be a full time catcher. As a full time catcher, he's very valuable. As a 1b, he isnt. Think about it this way. As a catcher, McCann, Posada, Mauer, VMart. He's top 4 or 5 in OPS. As a 1b, he's barely better than Adam LaRoche.

[Dipre]

If you put it that way, waiting is the smart thing to do indeed.

[jacksonianmarch]

I have a feeling VMart is in Boston through 2010 then finds another club. He isnt a good catcher, he isnt durable when he catches and his bat doesnt carry as well to another position. I think the sox go deeper into their new defense oriented organizational philosophy next yr. They'll let VMart go, take the 2 draft picks and watch him sign a 4 yr deal for a team that sees him play 80% of his games as a DH or a 1b over the life of the new contract. They'll be in on Mauer if he hits FA, but it sounds like that may be unreasonable. They'll let Papi go and sign another all offense basher to solidify that spot. They'll take the offensive upgrade from that move and counter it with the offensive downgrade of carrying a primarily defensive catcher. A guy like Gerald Laird. Is a master in calling games and at the craft of catching, leaving lots to be desired offensively.

[Imperial59]

I have a feeling VMart is in Boston through 2010 then finds another club. He isnt a good catcher, he isnt durable when he catches and his bat doesnt carry as well to another position.

He isn't durable when he catches? He's played 140+ games six of the last seven years, primarily as a catcher. I'm not sure what you meant by that.

[jacksonianmarch]

In 2008, he missed a lot of time due to an elbow injury, only catching 55 games.
In 2009, after said elbow injury, he started only 82 times at catcher, even though he started a total of 148 games.

Prior to 2008, he was a very durable catcher. But after the injury and now heading into his 30s as a catcher, he's probably due for a position change. Especially since defensively, he is not very strong. This is why I think the sox arent talking to him about an extension. They are giving him an audition as a full time catcher in 2010. If he handles it admirably, then they'll talk to him about an extension. If he needs a bunch of time at DH or 1b, then they let him go since he'll jam up the works.

[Imperial59]

In 2008, he missed a lot of time due to an elbow injury, only catching 55 games.
In 2009, after said elbow injury, he started only 82 times at catcher, even though he started a total of 148 games.

Prior to 2008, he was a very durable catcher. But after the injury and now heading into his 30s as a catcher, he's probably due for a position change. Especially since defensively, he is not very strong. This is why I think the sox arent talking to him about an extension. They are giving him an audition as a full time catcher in 2010. If he handles it admirably, then they'll talk to him about an extension. If he needs a bunch of time at DH or 1b, then they let him go since he'll jam up the works.

So he was injured one year (2008) and you're blowing it out of proportion? I agree he's due for regression and he's not the best defensive catcher (although he's not as bad as Posada). But it's a stretch to say he has durability issues.

[CanadianSox]

V-Mart is an interesting situation. If we decide to keep him as a catcher for the future, then the Sox need to go after him. Who knows if Joe Mauer will be on the market or if Wagner or Exposito pan out. Problem is, how much longer is V-Mart a viable option at catcher? As a catcher he is one of the best offensive threats, but if you move him to 1st base he loses a lot of his offensive value. I would give V-Mart a 3 year deal, but anything longer than that is pushing it.

I agree but I don't know about offering him a 3 year deal right now. We might want to wait it out a little into the season and see what happens first.

[Dipre]

Jacko's stance is not unreasonable. What he means by durability issues is that it's been documented that whenever V-Mart catches 110 games or more, the grind starts wearing on his offense, and he's an offense minded catcher. I don't think the issue is a bit overblown by our resident Super-Yankee fan, but it's something that we had heard before.

[jacksonianmarch]

Imp, you are way too defensive. He was injured one yr, yes, and it was a significant elbow injury which caused him to miss a lot of time. He eventually had surgery on that arm and came back a bit weaker. The problem is, he was a marginal defensive catcher to begin with, and now he's less than marginal. The other issue is that he wears down like Dipre said over the course of a season and as a catcher, that gets accelerated. Plus, he's now 31 yrs old which really is about the time that most full time catchers start to show some wear and tear. Also, his arm has taken a major step back. I know you use the Posada reference, but Posada had a lower PB/game ratio than VMart and threw out 28% of base-stealers in 2009, while VMart threw out only 14%. Plus, Posada's career mark is 28% while VMart's is 24%. From a catcher's defensive metric standpoint, you really can't go that much farther than that in evaluating them. They both are slow back there, but Posada's arm sets the two apart, even after having his shoulder reconstructed.

I am glad Dipre isnt having trouble seeing the truth here. VMart is getting auditioned. If his arm is back to pre-2008 levels and he shows he doesnt get worn down out there, then they will resign him. If he doesnt and needs a bunch of time at DH or at 1b, then he isnt useful since the sox have a major hard on for Adrian Gonzalez.

[TheMino007]

Jacko's stance is not unreasonable. What he means by durability issues is that it's been documented that whenever V-Mart catches 110 games or more, the grind starts wearing on his offense, and he's an offense minded catcher. I don't think the issue is a bit overblown by our resident Super-Yankee fan, but it's something that we had heard before.

That is a great point that can even apply to this season. How many games (110) can V-Mart catch before playing behind the plate starts to become detrimental to his offensive abilities? Lets be honest, he's getting paid to be an offensive catcher/player, not a defensive one. His bat is still good enough to have him DH/play first for 40 games. But like I said, as a full time 1st base/DH, he is middle of the pack in terms of production

[jacksonianmarch]

Exactly why I think he leaves after 2010. For 1.5 seasons you get elite offensive production out of the catcher's spot and dont have to commit big money to him past his prime seasons. Then, you get the two draft picks and move on down the line.

[Palodios]

The problem with letting him go in 2010, is finding a decent offensive replacement for 2011. Drew/Scutaro/Cameron aren't getting any younger, and they'd also be replacing Ortiz/Beltre/VMart. Unless Mauer gets out of Minny, or if the Sox can somehow get one or two very strong bats for 3rd/DH, the offense is only going down without Vmart.

[Imperial59]

Imp, you are way too defensive. He was injured one yr, yes, and it was a significant elbow injury which caused him to miss a lot of time. He eventually had surgery on that arm and came back a bit weaker.

Didn't Posada miss a lot of time due to a shoulder injury? Why is your opinion about him so different, other than the fact that he wears pinstripes?


The problem is, he was a marginal defensive catcher to begin with, and now he's less than marginal. The other issue is that he wears down like Dipre said over the course of a season and as a catcher, that gets accelerated. Plus, he's now 31 yrs old which really is about the time that most full time catchers start to show some wear and tear. Also, his arm has taken a major step back. I know you use the Posada reference, but Posada had a lower PB/game ratio than VMart and threw out 28% of base-stealers in 2009, while VMart threw out only 14%. Plus, Posada's career mark is 28% while VMart's is 24%. From a catcher's defensive metric standpoint, you really can't go that much farther than that in evaluating them. They both are slow back there, but Posada's arm sets the two apart, even after having his shoulder reconstructed.

You're kidding yourself if you think throwing out runners is the only aspect of playing defense. As you know, Bill James had Posada as the worst defensive catcher in baseball last year. I would just appreciate a little more objectivity in how you talk about V-Mart compared to Posada.l

[Imperial59]

Jacko's stance is not unreasonable. What he means by durability issues is that it's been documented that whenever V-Mart catches 110 games or more, the grind starts wearing on his offense, and he's an offense minded catcher. I don't think the issue is a bit overblown by our resident Super-Yankee fan, but it's something that we had heard before.

V-Mart started over 110 games at catcher every year from 2004 until 2008, when he had an injury. And those were some of the best offensive years of his career.

[Imperial59]

I am glad Dipre isnt having trouble seeing the truth here. VMart is getting auditioned. If his arm is back to pre-2008 levels and he shows he doesnt get worn down out there, then they will resign him. If he doesnt and needs a bunch of time at DH or at 1b, then he isnt useful since the sox have a major hard on for Adrian Gonzalez.

You're a trip Jacko. I love how when one poster agrees with your criticisms of a Red Sox player, they "see the truth" :lol:

[Palodios]

You're a trip Jacko. I love how when one poster agrees with your criticisms of a Red Sox player, they "see the truth" :lol:

In this case he's absolutely right. As a catcher, he's a top tier player. As a first basemen/dh, he's not. If he can play catcher for the sox, he's worth the money, if not, he isn't, its as simple as that.

[Imperial59]

In this case he's absolutely right. As a catcher, he's a top tier player. As a first basemen/dh, he's not. If he can play catcher for the sox, he's worth the money, if not, he isn't, its as simple as that.

I agree with you completely, but that's not at all the case that Jacko is making. Accodring to Jacko, V-Mart can only play 100 or so games at catcher without getting hurt.

[jacksonianmarch]

You really arent very good at reading, are you? I said that VMart's injury in 2008 limited him significantly, and caused the Indians and the Red Sox to cut into his playing time at catcher. Plus, his splits between Catcher and DH/1B show that the tools of ignorance cut into his offensive production. Add to that the fact that he isnt a good catcher to begin with, and the likelihood is that he will probably not catch more than 100 games this yr. The last time he caught 100 games was 2007, he's 31, he's a catchers whose defense is pretty pitiful, and he is coming off an arm injury which seemed to have a lingering effect on his CS%. I dont think you need to be a rocket scientist to figure this out

[Dipre]

I can't find the link now, but i remember reading somewhere that after the V-Mart trade was completed, the Indians GM advised Theo not to let V-Mart catch much more than 110 games to keep his offense in top shape.

[BSN07]

I could deal with Martinez catching a hundred games and splitting 50 at 1B/DH year in and year out. Especially if Wagner/Exposito show any promise at the ML level. It be a great way to break them in.

I don't care how much money they have to spend to sign him. I am more concerned with the years. If they can get him on a 3 yr+ 1 option, or a 4 yr deal I think they should do it.

[BSN07]

I can't find the link now, but i remember reading somewhere that after the V-Mart trade was completed, the Indians GM advised Theo not to let V-Mart catch much more than 110 games to keep his offense in top shape.

I remember something about that.

Besides having an elite bat at Catcher for 100-110 games is is fine by me. I don't mind Tek/Prospect getting 50-60 games in behind the plate.

[Dipre]

This year, they can very much exploit the fact that Varitek can still hit LHP. Played right, Tek's the best offensive backup C in the majors.

[BSN07]

This year, they can very much exploit the fact that Varitek can still hit LHP. Played right, Tek's the best offensive backup C in the majors.

Very true.

And in those games I think it be best to DH Matinez. Making the lineup RHH heavy and giving Papi days off against some of the tougher LHP's.

[Dipre]

Very true.

And in those games I think it be best to DH Matinez. Making the lineup RHH heavy and giving Papi days off against some of the tougher LHP's.

Ah, good point.

Papi's .716 OPS vs LHP should indicate a cut in playing time against lefties.

[jacksonianmarch]

Herein lies the problem with signing VMart long term. He isnt gonna catch for long. He's gonna be a half time player at C and will need another position. This will gum up the works for trying to acquire AdGon, who is by all accounts a far superior offensive player.

[riverside sluggers]

I dont think this will block the Sox from getting Gonzalez. They can still sign V-Mart long term and make the trade with San Diego. Also last time I checked, the DH spot going forward after this season is empty

[jacksonianmarch]

True, it is, but do you really want to lock in a guy who will be the DH by then, especially when his bat is good but not great? Papi was the exception to the rule because he was one of the top 3 hitters in the game from 2004-2007.

[Imperial59]

True, it is, but do you really want to lock in a guy who will be the DH by then, especially when his bat is good but not great? Papi was the exception to the rule because he was one of the top 3 hitters in the game from 2004-2007.

His bat is well above average for a DH and being able to play backup catcher would give him some added versatility. He would have had the 4th best wOBA last year among DH's, right behind Matsui.

[riverside sluggers]

How many teams have entrenched DH's? Most teams use the DH to rotate veteran players. Papi, Edgar Martinez, Frank Thomas, Harold Baines and Jim Thome are only ones I can think of that were great in that role

[a700hitter]

Name how many teams have entrenched DH's? Most teams use the DH to rotate veteran players. Papi, Edgar Martinez, Frank Thomas, Harold Baines and Jim Thome are only ones I can think of that were great in that role
Don Baylor

[Keeper]

How many teams have entrenched DH's? Most teams use the DH to rotate veteran players. Papi, Edgar Martinez, Frank Thomas, Harold Baines and Jim Thome are only ones I can think of that were great in that role

Also Hal McRae, Brian Downing, Chili Davis, and Paul Molitor. (I just saw the Prime 9 ;))

[a700hitter]

Also Hal McRae, Brian Downing, Chili Davis, and Paul Molitor. (I just saw the Prime 9 ;))McRae and Molitor were top shelf.

[Dojji]

Don Baylor

Don Baylor wasn't much of a hitter. Sure, he hit HR's, but he didn't surround that with solid production for most of his career.

[BSN07]

How many teams have entrenched DH's? Most teams use the DH to rotate veteran players. Papi, Edgar Martinez, Frank Thomas, Harold Baines and Jim Thome are only ones I can think of that were great in that role

If he can manage 90-110 games behind the plate over the span of the contract(which is reasonable IMO), it would give the Sox plenty of games to rotate "veteran players", and not gum up the DH spot at all. Plus is gives the Sox 60+ games for the Sox to break in a young Catcher, or for this season, let Tek have his last hurrah so to speak.

[jacksonianmarch]

Averaging 100 games for a catcher who has had durability issues during his age 29 and 30 seasons who's 31 yrs old? There is a reason why Theo is waiting, he's playing it smart. Theo has always been about paying a player for what he could contribute and not paying for past success. If re-signed right now as a catcher, he's in line for $10-15 mil per season depending on what Mauer gets. If Theo waits until the end of the season, he'll be able to better gauge his worth. If VMart needs to spend half his time at another position, he isnt worth 8 figures per season. VMart as a DH or 1B is worth probably $6-8 mil per season. I guarantee Theo is going to use this in his extension argument and potentially save some bucks here.

[BSN07]

Averaging 100 games for a catcher who has had durability issues during his age 29 and 30 seasons who's 31 yrs old? There is a reason why Theo is waiting, he's playing it smart. Theo has always been about paying a player for what he could contribute and not paying for past success. If re-signed right now as a catcher, he's in line for $10-15 mil per season depending on what Mauer gets. If Theo waits until the end of the season, he'll be able to better gauge his worth. If VMart needs to spend half his time at another position, he isnt worth 8 figures per season. VMart as a DH or 1B is worth probably $6-8 mil per season. I guarantee Theo is going to use this in his extension argument and potentially save some bucks here.

Well I agree with you here. I don't see them do anything until the end of the season.

Anyways, if the sign him fine, if not, I will still watch the games :D

[jacksonianmarch]

But I watch the gamezzzz!!! RIP Gom

[BSN07]

But I watch the gamezzzz!!! RIP Gom

Did I miss something? Did he manage to get himself banned?

[jacksonianmarch]

yeah, he's gone. Happened awhile ago

[YAZMAN]

Also Hal McRae, Brian Downing, Chili Davis, and Paul Molitor. (I just saw the Prime 9 ;))

Dave Kingman would have been the prototype entrenched DH if he was good enough to hit the AL pitching.

[Imperial59]

Averaging 100 games for a catcher who has had durability issues during his age 29 and 30 seasons who's 31 yrs old? There is a reason why Theo is waiting, he's playing it smart.

The reason's name is Joe Mauer. Once Mauer signs, the Red Sox preferred catcher will probably be V-Mart.

[Keeper]

I'm a big Kurt Suzuki fan. Martinez hasn't caught 100 games in a season 2 years in a row, and he's entering his 30s. If Martinez can't put the gear on for 110-120 games, I'd try to get Suzuki and replace V-Mart's bat with Adrian Gonzalez.

Actually, regardless of what Martinez does, I think they should go that route.

[Dipre]

Carlos Pena is also a possibility if they lose out on Gonzales and lose V-Mart. He's like Adrian Gonzales light.

[riverside sluggers]

If he can manage 90-110 games behind the plate over the span of the contract(which is reasonable IMO), it would give the Sox plenty of games to rotate "veteran players", and not gum up the DH spot at all. Plus is gives the Sox 60+ games for the Sox to break in a young Catcher, or for this season, let Tek have his last hurrah so to speak.

I was responding to Jacko who said "why should they lock him up to be the DH, with him having a good but not great bat." I replied, well what AL teams actually have great DH's today

[Dojji]

Considering that we have 3-4 young catchers with at least solid backup potential coming along over the next 3 years, I'm not too bothered about the fact that our starting catcher will need the occasional break from behind the plate.

Consider also that we're very well situated to deal with V-Mart's need not to be the fulltime catche and still get his bat in the lineupr this year. Whatever you think of Beltre's overall talent level, he's coming off a bad year made worse by injury and surgery and he should probably be encouraged to take 40 games or so off over the course of the year anyway, probably when Verlander, Greinke, and other particularly tough righthanders are on the mound. When that happens, V-Mart takes first, Youkilis takes third, just like last year, and Varitek comes in behind the plate. Not optimal, especially the Varitek part, but it does take a RHH out of the lineup and puts an ostensible LHH in his place.

What we do next year is utterly dependent on whether the Twins get something done with Mauer. I fully expect Boston to fight New York over Mauer and win if he's available. they've got too much money coming off the books, and New York has too much NOT coming off the books plus a strong catching prospect in the wings. They will go after Mauer, but it'll be the Teixeira situation in reverse -- New York will know they don't really NEED him, while Boston knows they really do.

If Mauer's not coming to Boston, then they sign Victor Martinez and wait on the development of one of Wagner, Expo, Fed or Lavarnway.

Personally I suspect Wags is our backup next year unless something goes hideously wrong at the big league level or amazingly right with one of the other 3. I don't think Varitek's here past this season.

[Dipre]

And the irrational Beltre hate continues. Like clockwork.

[TheKilo]

Haven't had a chance to comment on this article....first it is a bit disingenuous of the reporter to make the claim that VMart "doesn't want to leave Boston". VMart is a guy who is intensely loyal to the organization he plays for and just has no interest in moving multiple times (think back to his presser after leaving Cleveland).

The most refreshing thing, however, is he acknowledges that the Sox are most likely going to look at Mauer and he doesn't take issue with that. Good on him.

Sox won't sign him before ST, but I anticipate them signing him to something like a 3/45 deal after this season.

[Dojji]

I disagree with you, Kilo, only in that I think that Minnesota is going to play a game of chicken with Mauer in an effort to bring his price tag down, and the V-Mart negotiations are going to hang on how that turns out. I'm still not convinced that a team like Minnesota, not known as a big spender, is really going to see past the bottom line and ink Mauer at the elite price he's going to want to be paid. if he becomes available, Victor Martinez will be a free agent.

I'm not saying it'd be smart for Minnesota to do this mind, just that that's how I see it happening.

[TheMino007]

And the irrational Beltre hate continues. Like clockwork.

All that was said that was Beltre was coming off an injury that it could prohibit him from playing a full season. People have a right to question Beltre, he has been a bust since joining the Mariners, say what you want about park adjusted numbers, but the guy isn't a great OBP guy. He cashed in on one great year in LA and has been an iffy hitter during his tenure in Seattle. He is a great defender but it is reasonable to wonder if his groin problem will limit his range. Funny how if he said something about Lowell you wouldn't said anything but if its one of your boys you go off.

[Dipre]

All that was said that was Beltre was coming off an injury that it could prohibit him from playing a full season. People have a right to question Beltre, he has been a bust since joining the Mariners, say what you want about park adjusted numbers, but the guy isn't a great OBP guy. He cashed in on one great year in LA and has been an iffy hitter during his tenure in Seattle. He is a great defender but it is reasonable to wonder if his groin problem will limit his range. Funny how if he said something about Lowell you wouldn't said anything but if its one of your boys you go off.

Lol.

25 HR's and 30+ 2b year plus GG defense obviously equals bust.

Your thought process is questionable at best. He had one bad year due to injury, which is a small sample size when compared to his whole body of work. The fact that he's not an OBP guy doesn't mean he can't be productive, because his predecessor, Mike Lowell, was a non-OBP pull-righty who was very productive. Just like Beltre. If you don't believe in park-adjusted stats, that's fine, it just goes to show the deficiencies in your opinions, which are many, and obviously easy to spot.

Oh, and people have a right to question every signing, since every acquisition has quesiton marks, but they should do so both in the proper context, and with logically based arguments, lest their opinions be considered incorrect, and sometimes, even laughable.

[Ray10]

Well there's no way that Minny is gonna let Mauer walk so I say resign V-Mart to catch for the next couple of years.

[BSN07]

Well there's no way that Minny is gonna let Mauer walk so I say resign V-Mart to catch for the next couple of years.

There should be no rush to sign Martinez, it's not the be all end all to get it done before the season starts. They have all season to lay the groundwork, and 2 weeks at the end of the season to hammer it out if need be. Unless Martinez will except some insanely friendly deal or something like that, they should wait and see how the Mauer negotiations go.

[jacksonianmarch]

Lol.

25 HR's and 30+ 2b year plus GG defense obviously equals bust.

Your thought process is questionable at best. He had one bad year due to injury, which is a small sample size when compared to his whole body of work. The fact that he's not an OBP guy doesn't mean he can't be productive, because his predecessor, Mike Lowell, was a non-OBP pull-righty who was very productive. Just like Beltre. If you don't believe in park-adjusted stats, that's fine, it just goes to show the deficiencies in your opinions, which are many, and obviously easy to spot.
Oh, and people have a right to question every signing, since every acquisition has quesiton marks, but they should do so both in the proper context, and with logically based arguments, lest their opinions be considered incorrect, and sometimes, even laughable.

You always make comments like that. They just arent right. He has a point, which you can counter, but both of you are right at this point

A bust depends on the type of expectations set forth. If he thought that Beltre circa 2004 was the expectation, then he's a major bust. But Beltre 2005-2008 wasnt that bad. Beltre 2009 was horrid and that leaves a lot of people with concern over his play coming into the season.

Also, look at Beltre's body of work. It might surprise you to see how consistent he is. Consistently average from the offensive perspective. His career line is .270/.325/.453 for an OPS of .778. He has eclipsed an .800OPS 3 times in his 11 yr career. He's been between .710 and .804 8 times in his 11 seasons. So, while you tout park adjusted stats, there is a long body of work showing Beltre's consistency. He's a mid to high .700s OPS third baseman. He has above average power for the position, but not spectacular. He is very aggressive leaving his IsoPatience pretty low. Offensively, he won't kill you, but he isnt a guy to lean on either. Exactly why the Mariners failed with him. He was expected to be a middle of the order bat. He isnt. But as an isolated commodity, an average OPS guy with above average power and a great glove at 3b is valuable. So, he's worth the money to the sox. Doesnt mean everyone is thrilled with him. Now, I do expect his offense to improve in the sox lineup and in Fenway, but by how much? That's the question. And, he's coming off an injury filled, terrible season, which clouds the predictions even further. He has a right to be concerned.

Now, you try to make the comparison to Lowell, which is off base IMO. Lowell and Beltre have been playing full time for 11 seasons. In that time, Lowell has a 30 point advantage on Beltre in OPS over their careers, and Lowell has surpassed .800 6 times in his career. Plus, by removing one completely abnormal season from Lowell where he has a .650OPS over 500ABs, you see that he's been .788 or higher in all seasons after his rookie campaign. That OPS is higher than Beltre's career OPS. So, Lowell is more of a threat IMO. And, dont use the park effects for that either since Lowell is only helped by his first yr in Boston and not helped by his last 2.

Regardless, Beltre is an upgrade defensively from Lowell regardless of health since Lowell couldnt move. Offensively, if he's healthy, he's a mild downgrade. If he isnt healthy, then he'll be a burden for 2010, but just a 1 yr burden

[Dojji]

That's a fair take from Jacko. Frankly, I wouldn't mind throwing both of them over and going for the original plan I wanted, a mid 20's HR hitting 1B and let Youkilis take third.

The Sox FO though seems to think Youkilis is more "a 1B who can manage adequately as a long-term 3B backup" than "a 3B." That being the case, and given our total lack of young 3B prospects that have any chance of cracking the roster, id probably makes sense to take a look over this season and next offseason at young 3B's we could acquire in trade.

WARNING: TRADE SPECULATION TO FOLLOW.

All the vibes I've heard in Kansas City suggests that there's kind of an odd relationship there with Alberto Callaspo. Trey Hillman put up a preliminary "first draft lineup" that had Chris Getz at second, not sure what that was, maybe they don't think he can hack it at second, maybe they were just trying to motivate him, but there's some definite friction between Callaspo and KC right now when you'd think the last thing they'd want to do is alienate their second-best hitter. Seattle's already picked up the phone a couple times if the rumors are to be believed but so far Callaspo isn't for sale.

If Callaspo shoots his way out of KC somehow, I wouldn't mind at all taking a chance on him at third, where he's looked good over a SSS. His bat played like Bill Mueller's last year (as did his glove at second lol), but I think he could carry himself at 3B offensively and I think Callaspo is a natural 3B.

[riverside sluggers]

You always make comments like that. They just arent right. He has a point, which you can counter, but both of you are right at this point

A bust depends on the type of expectations set forth. If he thought that Beltre circa 2004 was the expectation, then he's a major bust. But Beltre 2005-2008 wasnt that bad. Beltre 2009 was horrid and that leaves a lot of people with concern over his play coming into the season.

Also, look at Beltre's body of work. It might surprise you to see how consistent he is. Consistently average from the offensive perspective. His career line is .270/.325/.453 for an OPS of .778. He has eclipsed an .800OPS 3 times in his 11 yr career. He's been between .710 and .804 8 times in his 11 seasons. So, while you tout park adjusted stats, there is a long body of work showing Beltre's consistency. He's a mid to high .700s OPS third baseman. He has above average power for the position, but not spectacular. He is very aggressive leaving his IsoPatience pretty low. Offensively, he won't kill you, but he isnt a guy to lean on either. Exactly why the Mariners failed with him. He was expected to be a middle of the order bat. He isnt. But as an isolated commodity, an average OPS guy with above average power and a great glove at 3b is valuable. So, he's worth the money to the sox. Doesnt mean everyone is thrilled with him. Now, I do expect his offense to improve in the sox lineup and in Fenway, but by how much? That's the question. And, he's coming off an injury filled, terrible season, which clouds the predictions even further. He has a right to be concerned.

Now, you try to make the comparison to Lowell, which is off base IMO. Lowell and Beltre have been playing full time for 11 seasons. In that time, Lowell has a 30 point advantage on Beltre in OPS over their careers, and Lowell has surpassed .800 6 times in his career. Plus, by removing one completely abnormal season from Lowell where he has a .650OPS over 500ABs, you see that he's been .788 or higher in all seasons after his rookie campaign. That OPS is higher than Beltre's career OPS. So, Lowell is more of a threat IMO. And, dont use the park effects for that either since Lowell is only helped by his first yr in Boston and not helped by his last 2.

Regardless, Beltre is an upgrade defensively from Lowell regardless of health since Lowell couldnt move. Offensively, if he's healthy, he's a mild downgrade. If he isnt healthy, then he'll be a burden for 2010, but just a 1 yr burden

Him tearing a testicle could happen again?? Perish the thought :lol:

Lowell basically is good for 17 HRs/75 RBIs. Beltre will have a season of at least those numbers

[Dipre]

You always make comments like that. They just arent right. He has a point, which you can counter, but both of you are right at this point

A bust depends on the type of expectations set forth. If he thought that Beltre circa 2004 was the expectation, then he's a major bust. But Beltre 2005-2008 wasnt that bad. Beltre 2009 was horrid and that leaves a lot of people with concern over his play coming into the season.

Also, look at Beltre's body of work. It might surprise you to see how consistent he is. Consistently average from the offensive perspective. His career line is .270/.325/.453 for an OPS of .778. He has eclipsed an .800OPS 3 times in his 11 yr career. He's been between .710 and .804 8 times in his 11 seasons. So, while you tout park adjusted stats, there is a long body of work showing Beltre's consistency. He's a mid to high .700s OPS third baseman. He has above average power for the position, but not spectacular. He is very aggressive leaving his IsoPatience pretty low. Offensively, he won't kill you, but he isnt a guy to lean on either. Exactly why the Mariners failed with him. He was expected to be a middle of the order bat. He isnt. But as an isolated commodity, an average OPS guy with above average power and a great glove at 3b is valuable. So, he's worth the money to the sox. Doesnt mean everyone is thrilled with him. Now, I do expect his offense to improve in the sox lineup and in Fenway, but by how much? That's the question. And, he's coming off an injury filled, terrible season, which clouds the predictions even further. He has a right to be concerned.

Now, you try to make the comparison to Lowell, which is off base IMO. Lowell and Beltre have been playing full time for 11 seasons. In that time, Lowell has a 30 point advantage on Beltre in OPS over their careers, and Lowell has surpassed .800 6 times in his career. Plus, by removing one completely abnormal season from Lowell where he has a .650OPS over 500ABs, you see that he's been .788 or higher in all seasons after his rookie campaign. That OPS is higher than Beltre's career OPS. So, Lowell is more of a threat IMO. And, dont use the park effects for that either since Lowell is only helped by his first yr in Boston and not helped by his last 2.

Regardless, Beltre is an upgrade defensively from Lowell regardless of health since Lowell couldnt move. Offensively, if he's healthy, he's a mild downgrade. If he isnt healthy, then he'll be a burden for 2010, but just a 1 yr burden

Whenever someone makes an argument bashing something about the Red Sox "he has a point". The fact that you agree further raises questions about his thought process.

I always make comments like that with a reason, and when made towards they are usually right. Bias much?. Unlike me, you simply cannot acknowledge anything good about the other team, which makes you calling me out an act of hypocrisy, so i suggest you stop typing.


Him tearing a testicle could happen again?? Perish the thought :lol:

Lowell basically is good for 17 HRs/75 RBIs. Beltre will have a season of at least those numbers

This.

[Dipre]

That's a fair take from Jacko. Frankly, I wouldn't mind throwing both of them over and going for the original plan I wanted, a mid 20's HR hitting 1B and let Youkilis take third.

The Sox FO though seems to think Youkilis is more "a 1B who can manage adequately as a long-term 3B backup" than "a 3B." That being the case, and given our total lack of young 3B prospects that have any chance of cracking the roster, id probably makes sense to take a look over this season and next offseason at young 3B's we could acquire in trade.

WARNING: TRADE SPECULATION TO FOLLOW.

All the vibes I've heard in Kansas City suggests that there's kind of an odd relationship there with Alberto Callaspo. Trey Hillman put up a preliminary "first draft lineup" that had Chris Getz at second, not sure what that was, maybe they don't think he can hack it at second, maybe they were just trying to motivate him, but there's some definite friction between Callaspo and KC right now when you'd think the last thing they'd want to do is alienate their second-best hitter. Seattle's already picked up the phone a couple times if the rumors are to be believed but so far Callaspo isn't for sale.

If Callaspo shoots his way out of KC somehow, I wouldn't mind at all taking a chance on him at third, where he's looked good over a SSS. His bat played like Bill Mueller's last year (as did his glove at second lol), but I think he could carry himself at 3B offensively and I think Callaspo is a natural 3B.

Of course it's a fair take in your opinion. Beltre obviously used to steal your lunch money back when you were in high school. He deserves to not be a Red Sox for such a travesty. Lol Adam LaRoche.

[jacksonianmarch]

wait, so no retort at all to my post, just to my allegiance. Then, instead of rebutting Dojji, you make fun of him. I thought you were working on becoming a better poster since your triumphant return?

[Dojji]

Of course it's a fair take in your opinion. Beltre obviously used to steal your lunch money back when you were in high school. He deserves to not be a Red Sox for such a travesty. Lol Adam LaRoche.

What is this even, Dipre? You've been foaming at the mouth every time everyone anyone suggests that a guy who hit .265/.305/.379/.684 last year might not light up the league.

He had a rotten year, he's coming off a surgery, he's got more miles on him as a professional ballplayer than Mike Lowell has, if this guy had been a Red Sox last year we'd have been all for moving the guy along, why does he get a pass?

[Dipre]

So is your thought process not inconsistent because of your allegiance?

You claim Curtis Granderson, coming from a pitcher's park into a Lefty-friendly park will boost his overall numbers. But Adrian Beltre, coming from a pitcher's park into a Righty-friendly park will not boost his numbers enough to at least be a wash in production compared to Lowell?

It'd be harder if the inconsistencies caused by bias weren't so obvious.

[jacksonianmarch]

You know what, it's time you put your money where your mouth is, Dipre. You have been licking Beltre's balls ever since he signed with Boston, and while others have brought up Beltre's concerns you have continued to tell people how stupid they are. Time for you to man up and put a prediction out there, so that if he fails to live up to it, then you're the idiot. Go for it, I'm waiting.

[Dipre]

What is this even, Dipre? You've been foaming at the mouth every time everyone anyone suggests that a guy who hit .265/.305/.379/.684 last year might not light up the league.

He had a rotten year, he's coming off a surgery, he's got more miles on him as a professional ballplayer than Mike Lowell has, if this guy had been a Red Sox last year we'd have been all for moving the guy along, why does he get a pass?

You're claiming it's easier for Lowell to regain his mobility than for Beltre to regain his power stroke at Fenway. That is ridiculous. And please don't talk about foaming mouths, after displaying a massive hard-on and blind rage defending the epic awesomenes of Adam Laroche.

A Doiji-Jacko alliance. Now i just know i'm right. I'm going out and buying "Adrian Beltre AL MVP" t-shirt right now. Brb.

[jacksonianmarch]

So is your thought process not inconsistent because of your allegiance?

You claim Curtis Granderson, coming from a pitcher's park into a Lefty-friendly park will boost his overall numbers. But Adrian Beltre, coming from a pitcher's park into a Righty-friendly park will not boost his numbers enough to at least be a wash in production compared to Lowell?

It'd be harder if the inconsistencies caused by bias weren't so obvious.

Granderson is coming off a career worst yr, which is still a pretty good season. His two prior seasons in 2007 and 2008 were phenomenal. Park effect will have something to do with it, but I think more a return to his prior performance could be the reason for his return to significant success. Beltre had one season of stellar performance 6 seasons ago. Thats the difference. Also, Beltre is coming off a terrible season in which he had two injuries, one to his shoulder.

[Dipre]

Granderson is coming off a career worst yr, which is still a pretty good season. His two prior seasons in 2007 and 2008 were phenomenal. Park effect will have something to do with it, but I think more a return to his prior performance could be the reason for his return to significant success. Beltre had one season of stellar performance 6 seasons ago. Thats the difference. Also, Beltre is coming off a terrible season in which he had two injuries, one to his shoulder.

Obviously shoulder injuries are extremely damaging to hitters, even more so than pitchers. Who's that guy putting up .900 OPS seasons in-spite of built-on shoulder protection on his contract?

Comerica to NYS works wonders.

Safeco to Fenway doesn't.

Got the memo.

[riverside sluggers]

Jacko Ive said countless times I wouldnt be surprised if he puts up at least 20 HRs and 80 RBIs. Its not me praising him like he's a HOF or anything. This past season was a fluke year that involved having a freak injury


What is this even, Dipre? You've been foaming at the mouth every time everyone anyone suggests that a guy who hit .265/.305/.379/.684 last year might not light up the league.

He had a rotten year, he's coming off a surgery, he's got more miles on him as a professional ballplayer than Mike Lowell has, if this guy had been a Red Sox last year we'd have been all for moving the guy along, why does he get a pass?

And if Mike Lowell was a Red Sox in 2005, we'd have been all for moving on from him

[Dipre]

Jacko Ive said countless times I wouldnt be surprised if he puts up at least 20 HRs and 80 RBIs. Its not me praising him like he's a HOF or anything. This past season was a fluke year that involved having a freak injury


You mean it's actually possible for a hitter to recover from shoulder surgery and a freak nut injury while playing in one of the worst ballparks for hitters in the Majors?

Wow, you learn something new every day.


And if Mike Lowell was a Red Sox in 2005, we'd have been all for moving on from him


How dare you use logic!

[jacksonianmarch]

Dipre is just being a moron now.

Lowell was a return to prior success. Park effect, IMO, had little to do with it. He had an awful season the yr prior to coming to Boston. They happen.

I agree that park effect is there, but I dont think it has as much to do with it as Dipre is touting. Maybe, at most, 30 points to an OPS. Some guys are more, some are less, especially when you talk about a guy like Johnny Damon, but that's a special case. My point is that Beltre has been incredibly consistent throughout his career. He had one career yr and otherwise has been in the mid to high .700 range throughout his career. To expect him to be significantly better than that is ridiculous, IMO.

[jacksonianmarch]

waiting on that prediction Dipre

[Dipre]

Jorge Posada.

I'm just being a moron right?

Maybe if Beltre was a Yankee, pinstripe power could help him heal with little to no damage? :(

At least i'm just a moron. You're a biased, inconsistent moron.

[jacksonianmarch]

I said last yr that Posada was a questionmark, and he came back and proved he was healthy. Beltre needs to do that to shed his questions.

Or maybe every time you have surgery, you shouldnt have any sort of concern about a player. None actually.

[jacksonianmarch]

So let me get this straight...

A guy with a .778 career OPS who is coming off a sub .700OPS season and shoulder surgery should not be considered a questionmark and anyone who thinks otherwise is an idiot? Solid reasoning Dipre. Still waiting on the prediction btw. Time to put your money where your mouth is

[Dojji]

J
And if Mike Lowell was a Red Sox in 2005, we'd have been all for moving on from him



Sure, and that's why Lowell was a definite "question mark" when he was brought in as a salary dump from the Beckett deal. At the time we had depth lined up in case he couldn't hack it, and Lowell had to PROVE in 2006 that he could return to health and effectiveness. why not apply the same standard to Beltre?

[Dipre]

Topic|Player Leaves|Team|Content
Prospect|Yankees|The player in question is made of 150% pure awesomeness. Fear us.
Prospect|Sox|He could be good, but this is why he won't be.
Signing|Yankees|This is the missing piece. We'll win 160 games, and the umps will screw us out of 2.
Signing|Sox|Risky move, overpaid here, they'll regret this.
Injury|Yankees|They don't get hurt. Hypothetically, if they did, the recovery will be speedy with no impact to ability.
Injury|Sox|Everyone is a ticking time bomb. Once hurt, they'll never heal right.
Player Leaves|Yankees|They are better off without him, he was hurt/too old/sucked
Player Leaves|Redsox|They are really gunna regret it, he wasnt all that hurt/hes still young/He has a lot left in the tank.

A two-for-one!.

So let me get this straight:

1) Since he's on the Red Sox, he won't heal right. Ever.

2 ) Since he's on the Red Sox, the park adjustment won't have an effect on him. So his career OPS is brought into the argument without accounting for park effects. The only year he didn't have an OPS+ above 105 since 2006 last year. Curtis Granderson will be awesome in NYS though. Oh well, such is life. :dunno:

[jacksonianmarch]

mind putting up a prediction or are you gonna keep dancing around it?

[Dipre]

I've put my prediction up like 27,000 times.

And for the record, i don't have to "dance around it". Who are you to tell me what i should or shouldn't post?

Prediction:

.268/.340/.490 .810 OPS. 30 HR's, 35 2B's, 85 RBI.

[Dojji]

You just lost your license to call anything I say about anyone, ever, "overoptimistic."

The HR's and doubles aren't COMPLETELY insane, but no way he manages a .340 OBP.

[Coco's Disciples]

Stop being dicks, everybody.

And just for reference, PECOTA projects .274/.328/.446; 17 HR, 27 2B, 62 RBI.

[jacksonianmarch]

That is optimistic, but not out of reach. Regardless, to put other people down when they question his contributions, then predict something not too far away from his career numbers is ridiculous. You had been touting him like he's some sort of savior

[Dipre]

You feel called out because you're a victim of inconsistency to the point where a table had to be created to save other posters time when answering your dribble. It's ok, i understand.

[jacksonianmarch]

Once again, that is not what I said. I said that you have been calling people out who have been concerned about Beltre, concerned that he won't produce enough in Boston. All valid concerns. Then, you make a prediction that isnt too far forward from his baseline.

Listen man, you have done nothing but be in the middle of every fight on this forum since you arrived. Maybe, just maybe, if you think about it, the problem isnt everyone else.

[Dipre]

You don't have moral grounds to call me out on such a manner, you hypocrite.

An inconsistent thought process is exactly that. If someone's going to start an argument by saying "I don't care what your "X" stat says" when he has used stats in the past to defend denotes inconsistency.

Just like saying "X player can benefit from moving to a new park" when said park is noticeable for benefitting said player's skillset then turning back and brushing aside the same situation for another because it suits your argument denotes inconsistency as well. I will call people out on it again and again and again and 9 times out of 10 you'll be in the front line.

You fully expected Jorge Posada to come back from his shoulder issues with little to no impact to offense, but of course, Beltre's going to absolutely suck, not to mention, Fenway park will have absolutely no bearing on his numbers when comparing it to Safeco Field. I fully expect Curtis Granderson to benefit from NYS just like i fully expect Beltre to benefit from Fenway. I also know that the shoulder procedure was not as big a deal as some are making it out to be and that the testicle injury was a completely freak occurence.

[jacksonianmarch]

I never once said that Beltre is due to suck. Only that he's a questinmark. Reading is fundamental. I actually gave you my predictions for him awhile back and they are very similar to yours. I just am less sure about them as I am about others due to his injury. I predicted Jorge would come back strong but never argued that he was a question. You need to understand that. You obviously don't. Just because I raise concerns about a player doesn't mean that I am predicting their demise. Just that they have a conditon attached to my prediction, that's all

[Dipre]

Topic|Player Leaves|Team|Content
Prospect|Yankees|The player in question is made of 150% pure awesomeness. Fear us.
Prospect|Sox|He could be good, but this is why he won't be.
Signing|Yankees|This is the missing piece. We'll win 160 games, and the umps will screw us out of 2.
Signing|Sox|Risky move, overpaid here, they'll regret this.
Injury|Yankees|They don't get hurt. Hypothetically, if they did, the recovery will be speedy with no impact to ability.
Injury|Sox|Everyone is a ticking time bomb. Once hurt, they'll never heal right.
Player Leaves|Yankees|They are better off without him, he was hurt/too old/sucked
Player Leaves|Redsox|They are really gunna regret it, he wasnt all that hurt/hes still young/He has a lot left in the tank.



^Greatest contribution in TS history.

[YAZMAN]

^Greatest contribution in TS history.

The way you posted it makes it look like you wrote it.

[Dipre]

The way you posted it makes it look like you wrote it.

Oh, my apologies.

Obvious props ORS's way.

[Dipre]

Oh, and Lol backpedals.

[YAZMAN]

Oh, my apologies.

Obvious props ORS's way.

No apologies, I just figured you'd want to clarify that to anyone who wasn't around for that epic post.

[Dojji]

Jacko was being Jacko, but he had a point this time. Beltre *is* coming off shoulder surgery after all. That's a thing that has been known to impact performance the following season (see 2007 Drew)

Thos whole thing is tangential to the point of the thread. What brought this whole massive digression up was my statement that beyond any concern about performance, you have to go easy on Beltre's playing time, which meshes nicely with the need to play V-Mart at first for about 30-40 games to keep his bat in the lineup without wearing his knees out. Then of course Dipre goes exothermic on us but there's nothing new about that, so we move on.

The point is that it's entirely reasonable to ease a guy back in who's coming off a bad year, two injuries and a shoulder surgery, and between Lowell, Youkilis and V-Mart this shouldn't be a problem. Also between those three, it won't be a fatal situation if for some unforseen reason Beltre DOES flame out.

[Dipre]

I just got off the phone with one of Beltre's representatives, and he promised to give Doiji back all of the lunch money he took from him during High School if he promises to STFU about him.

[jacksonianmarch]

Another douchebag comment from our Dominican douchebag. Probably moving toward another tempaban.

[Dipre]

Awwwwwww Jacko's all butthurt now. Oh well. You shouldn't talk about bannings and being a douchebag. /bbdoc. /Rivernator.

Some adjustments about hypocrisy need to be made to the table.

[Imperial59]

Another douchebag comment from our Dominican douchebag. Probably moving toward another tempaban.

Irony anyone?

[Imperial59]

Beltre *is* coming off shoulder surgery after all. That's a thing that has been known to impact performance the following season (see 2007 Drew).

To be fair, Beltre had bone spurs removed, the surgeons didn't do anything to the ligaments or tissue like they did when Posada and I believe Drew did in 2006. It's a rather minor surgery. The only negative side effect of the surgery that I've ever heard of happening is that the bone spurs can eventually grow back.

EDIT: Beltre had the same surgery in 1998 and was just fine in 1999. Kevlim Escobar had the surgery in 2005 and was just fine in 2006. I can't find anyone who just had a bone spur removed (without having something else in the area surgically repaired) and didn't return to form the next year.

[Dipre]

To be fair, Beltre had bone spurs removed, the surgeons didn't do anything to the ligaments or tissue like they did when Posada and I believe Drew did in 2006. It's a rather minor surgery. The only negative side effect of the surgery that I've ever heard of happening is that the bone spurs can eventually grow back.

EDIT: Beltre had the same surgery in 1998 and was just fine in 1999. Kevlim Escobar had the surgery in 2005 and was just fine in 2006. I can't find anyone who just had a bone spur removed (without having something else in the area surgically repaired) and didn't return to form the next year.

That's because it's a minor procedure, not triple bypass surgery. Logic seems to avoid some people.

[SoxSport]

This one would seem to be a no-brainer. They don't have anybody else to catch in the next couple of years, and the guy wants to play in Boston.

I read that AdGon now wants Teixeira money. That's enough to get them signing VMart fast. Especially when they can get him cheaper than Bay.