Have the Red Sox improved or regressed?

[Dipre]

Since some interesting folks here at TalkSox (not directed at anyone in particular) have an interesting habit of bashing every move the Red Sox ever make, and are treating this off-season's moves as some sort of "regression" when it pertains to the team, it would be good to engage on an in-depth look on what the Sox have lost and gained heading into 2010 and try to come to a conclusion as to where the team stands heading into next season.


2009 Red Sox:

Offense:

872 runs scored (3rd AL)

.352 OBP (2nd AL)

.454 SLG (2nd AL)


Pitching:

736 runs allowed (3rd AL)

1230 SO (2nd AL)

4.63 starter's ERA (19th MLB )

515 starter's runs allowed (20th MLB )

3.80 reliever's ERA (8th MLB )

221 reliever's runs allowed (5th MLB )


Defense:

UZR by position:

P: 29th (MLB )

C: CS 23 (29th MLB ) SB 151 (30th MLB )

1B: 2nd (MLB )

2B: 7th (MLB )

SS: 12th (MLB )

3B: 29th (MLB )

RF: 8th (MLB )

CF: 30th (MLB )

LF: 25th (MLB )


The things that immediately jump out as negative about the 2009 ball-club are the starters and the defense at 3B, LF, CF and C, with the offense being the bright spot.


Substractions:

Jason Bay: 151 G .384/.537/.921 OPS, 36 HR, 29 2B, 119 RBI 134 OPS+, -13.0 UZR

Rocco Baldelli: 62 G, 311/433/744 OPS, 7 HR, 4 2B, 23 RBI, 89 OPS+, -0.8 UZR

Nick Green: 103 G .303/.366/ 669 OPS, 71 OPS+, 6 HR, 18 2B, 35 RBI, 8.3 UZR (At SS)

Alex Gonzales: 44 G, .316/.453/.769 OPS,95 OPS+ 3 HR, 12 2B, 15 RBI, 4.3 UZR

Mike Lowell (pending): 119 G, .337/.447/.811 OPS, 106 OPS+, 17 HR, 29 2B, -10.4 UZR

Brad Penny: 131.2 IP, 5.61 ERA, 1.53 WHIP, 4.68 xFIP

John Smotlz: 40 IP,8.32 ERA, 1.7 WHIP,4.19 xFIP

Billy Wagner: 13.2 IP, 1.98 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 3.03 xFIP

Takashi Saito: 55.2 IP, 2.43 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 4.86 xFIP


Additions:


Victor Martinez (mid-season): 56 G, .405/.507/.912 OPS, 8HR, 12 2B, 41 RBI, 133 OPS+.

Adrian Beltre: (Injured shoulder/testicle) Career averages: 152 G, .325/.453/.779 OPS, 24 HR, 34 2B,87 RBI, 105 OPS +, 13.9 UZR/150.

Mike Cameron: 149 G, .342/.452/.795 OPS, 24 HR, 32 2B,70 RBI, 111 OPS+, 10.0 UZR

Marco Scutaro: (Career 162 G Averages): .337/.384/.721 OPS, 92 OPS+, 10 HR, 29 2B, 57 RBI, -2.1 UZR/150.

Bill Hall: (Career 162 G Averages): .309/.441/.750 OPS, 93 OPS+, 19 HR, 35 2B, 71 RBI, Average UZR/150 by position: 2B (-1.9), SS (1.6), 3B (5.7), LF (-2.3), (CF 6.3), RF (-0.1).

Jeremy Hermida: 129 G .348/.392/.740 OPS, 94 OPS+, 13 HR, 14 2B, 47 RBI, -7.7 UZR.

John Lackey: 176.1 IP, 3.83 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 3.92 xFIP.

Continues......

[Dipre]

Area-to-area comparison of the 2009-2010 (Projected) Boston Red Sox:

Offense: We'll use OPS ranks from last year, with the exception of Scutaro, who will be adjusted to his career averages:

2009:
CF: .755(17th)
2B: .818(7th)
c: .754(9th
1B: .874(11th)
DH: .780(7th AL)
LF: .916(1st)
RF: .912(1st)
3B: .841(5th)
SS: .653(21st)

There are some variables created by last year's roster turmoil, namely in the 1B/3B conondrum with Youkilis shifting between them, but they pretty much even each other out.

2010:

CF:.780
2B:.803
C: .822
1B:.945
DH:.765
LF:.740
RF:.897
3B:.765
SS:.705

There are two caveats, number one is not including the whole 162 game sample as in 2009 for 2010, which is impossible, because it's hard to predict how backups will behave, however, upon further research, i noticed that the actual input of backups has little bearing on the positional outcome unless for outside factors (injuries), and Catcher, which i played it by V-Mart's .837 career average instead of his .861 number from last year, since i assume he will get days off against some lefties in favor of Varitek, who can still swing the stick against them, but is still a drop-off from Martinez. I also substracted .015 OPS points per position to make up for inevitable "backup" appearances, which i believe evens it out as much as possible.

Now let's see if you actually lose or gain OPS by simply averaging out the nine positions (This is not based on AB's, but rather a simple mathematical equation to show a point).

2009: .811 (806 actual, other factors like pitcher AB's factor into the equation).

2010: .802

The actual outcome is obviously not as simple as this, since the 2009 second-half lineup was obviously more potent. But what this looks to point out is that even though a lot of offense was lost from Bay, a lot of it is going to be regained from a full season of V-Mart and not having a black hole at SS.

This is an attempt to show how the lineup, while not superior to last year's final product, it's still superior to what some characters would lead you to believe. It's a good lineup. It's going to get on base and hit for power, although not up to 2009 standards, however, simple logic would lead you to believe that the difference, while significant, is not "massive", and further non-biased analysis further reinforces that notion.


Defense:

(Note: I will rank catcher dead last in both seasons)

Postion-by-position UZR/150 numbers for the 2009 Boston Red Sox:

1B: 8.3

2B: 9.1

SS: 3.1

3B:-10.7

LF:-9.4

CF:-19.6

RF: 9.1


Position-by-position starter's UZR/150 for 2010 (Career Averages):

1B (Youk): 6.5

2B (Pedroia): 7.4

SS (Scutaro): -2.9

3B (Beltre): 13.9

LF (Ellsbury): 21.8 (SSS)

CF (Cameron): 5.7

RF (Drew): 7.4


Except for SS, where Scutaro is below average in his career, this is a completely superior defensive alignment to last year's, where there are no extremely weak links except for Catcher, and all other positions where the defense was absolutely inept in 2009 have been upgraded.


Pitching:


I'm going to focus on the starters, and quite simply bump the bullpen ERA to an even 4.00, from last year's 3.80 mark.

The main problem with the Boston Red Sox' 2009 squad was inconsistency, and it reflected the in the starting corps, who posted a 4.63 ERA (19th in MLB ), and allowed 515 runs, (20th in MLB ).

I'm not going to go very in-depth in this one, because quite simply:

Lester,Beckett,Lackey,Matsuzaka,Wakefield>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>Lester,Beckett,Wakefield,Penny,Smoltz,Tazawa,Byrd.

The 2010 model should simply be better in every aspect than the 2009 version.

Just take out Penny/Smoltz and their 171.2 innings of 6.25 ERA ball (119 earned runs allowed) as well as Byrd/Tazawa's 59.1 innings of 6.54 ERA (43 earned runs allowed) and add to that John Lackey's 176 innings of 3.83 ball, as well as a healthy Dice-K and a full year of Bucholz (who, at worst, should provide around league average innings) with Wakefield as injury/inefectiveness insurance.

You can easily expect that horrible 4.63 ERA to go into a much more respectable range, quite possibly into the low 4's.


So all in all it's easy to see that while some offensive regression is to be expected, the club has over all made very significant improvements to the roster, which, in my opinion, is a much stronger one than the 2009 version of the Red Sox, and that one won 95 games.

[Palodios]

Very indepth analysis. One thing you didn't mention was that the bullpen took a bit of a hit, losing Saito and the spot taken by Masterson/Wagner. I'm assuming they won't pick up another quality reliever unless they can get rid of Lowell, but I'd be a bit afraid seeing Richardson or Bonser coming in the 6th/7th innings.

[Dipre]

Very indepth analysis. One thing you didn't mention was that the bullpen took a bit of a hit, losing Saito and the spot taken by Masterson/Wagner. I'm assuming they won't pick up another quality reliever unless they can get rid of Lowell, but I'd be a bit afraid seeing Richardson or Bonser coming in the 6th/7th innings.

That's why i bumped the bullpen ERA up .020. Saito's spot will be taken by Bonser, but remember that Wake also moves to the bullpen for the time being. I also mentioned Wagner and Saito as substractions in its respective segment.

[Emmz]

Yeah, great analysis, I love this, and to me it seems a lot like the Sox have most definitely made a huge overall improvement. In reality, when it comes right down to it, the most important thing is run differential. While the offense may have taken a slight hit, our rotation has definitely improved, and the bullpen is definitely still well above average.

Defensively, we were pretty horrible, but we've gone from amongst the worst, if not THE worst, to elite.

I like our chances this year, I see this as optimism.

[Coco's Disciples]

Good post. I'll add on and probably end up repeating a bit of what you said. You forgot Buchholz in your rotation, who I think will improve upon last year. Matsuzaka cannot be any worse than 2009, though I don't think he'll approach his 18 win, sub 3 ERA of 2008. A rotation of:
Lester
Beckett
Lackey
Buchholz
Matsuzaka

is a clear improvement over last year.

The bullpen will definitely take a hit this year. Last year we had a full year of Saito, who didn't have a prominent role but did have a sub 3 ERA. Masterson and Wagner also both contributed portions of the season and will not this year. There have been no bullpen acquisitions this year, but Wakefield and one more (Richardson or an acquisition) will be added. I imagine Wakefield will take a long relief/spot start role, similar to Masterson. In Masterson's time last year he posted a 4.5 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP. I think that's fair to assume for Wakefield out of the bullpen, so that loss is made up for. The Sox will also get a full season of Daniel Bard. It remains to be seen if another relieer, preferably a LHP, will be added. But for now, the bullpen is:
Papelbon
Okajima
Ramirez
Bard
Delcarmen
Wakefield
TBA

Again, I'll call this a moderate downgrade from last year.

Now for the lineup. The lineup as currently (and probably on Opening Day) constructed is:

Ellsbury
Pedroia
Martinez
Youkilis
Ortiz
Cameron
Drew
Beltre
Scutaro

So the Sox lose Bay, Lowell, the every day version of Jason Varitek, and the array of shit that played SS last year (Lugo, Green, Gonzalez). They gain Cameron, Beltre, Scutaro and four more months of Victor Martinez. One thing Dipre didn't look at was WAR, so I will, position by position. These are the WARs of the starters at each position (Catcher has Varitek and Martinez's two months on the team). Remember, WAR takes hitting and fielding into account and is adjusted for position.

Position|
2009 WAR|
Projected 2010 WAR|
Change

C|3.4|4.9|+1.5
1B|5.6|5.6|Even
2B|5.2|5.2|Even
3B|1.2|2.4|+1.2
SS|1.3|4.5|+3.2
LF|3.5|1.9|−1.6
CF|1.9|4.3|+2.4
RF|4.7|4.7|Even
DH|0.7|0.7|Even
|27.5|34.2|+6.7

Of course these are imperfect. For the 2010 projections I just replicated the player's 2009 WAR. It's not ideal and likely inaccurate in the long run, but I couldn't find a reliable projection source; CHONE doesn't do WAR projections and PECOTA is not out yet. Some players will improve upon 2009 and some will regress (for example, Scutaro will likely regress and Beltre will likely improve), so I think it's within reason to use 2009.

My interpretation of the table:

The most notable differences in the table come at SS and CF. Marco Scutaro's WAR of course comes from his career year in 2009. It's unfair to expect him to replicate this, but it is fair to expect him to be better than Gonzalez/Green/Lugo (all of whom were accounted for in the 2009 cell). In centerfield, the 2009 cell is Jacoby Ellsbury's 1.9 WAR, and the 2010 is of course Mike Cameron. I think a big factor in these figures is defense. Despite the flashy plays, Ellsbury was not a good defensive player. Cameron is much better. Jacko likes to harp on the fact that LF defense at Fenway is not very important. He's partially right. However, it is important when you're taking away Ellsbury from CF, where defense is important, and moving him to LF. Cameron is also a better offensive player than Ellsbury.

The only negative difference in the table is LF, which should come as a surprise to nobody. Jason Bay was a very good offensive player and a poor defender. Ellsbury is a major downgrade offensively, of course, but a moderate defensive upgrade.

So to answer the original question, the Red Sox have improved. Expect them to make the playoffs, be it Wild Card or AL East.

[Dipre]

Well i did mention "full year of Bucholz" for one. And i didn't try WAR because it also accounts for defense, and i wanted to look at each area individually.

Otherwise, agree with you 100%.

[Coco's Disciples]

Whoops, I missed that. I was referencing this:

Lester,Beckett,Lackey,Matsuzaka,Wakefield>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>Lester,Beckett,Wakefield,Penny,Smo ltz,Tazawa,Byrd.

[Dipre]

The bench will also be very much upgraded.

Hermida, Hall, Varitek, and Lowell/Signee is a pretty good bench with Lowrie waiting in the wings.

[Emmz]

Hermida and Hall have some good stats against righties, and lefties, respectively.

And yeah, 'Tek and Lowell too.

Bench is definitely upgraded, the pitching as a whole is upgraded, the offense is upgraded a several spots, but overall, is probably moderately downgraded.

The defense is upgraded immensely, though.

[Imperial59]

C|3.4|4.9|+1.5
1B|5.6|5.6|Even
2B|5.2|5.2|Even
3B|1.2|2.4|+1.2
SS|1.3|4.5|+3.2
LF|3.5|1.9|−1.6
CF|1.9|4.3|+2.4
RF|4.7|4.7|Even
DH|0.7|0.7|Even
|27.5|34.2|+6.7[/table]

This. The Sox clearly improved their rotation, and even though we lost Jason Bay, we significantly improved our position players.

The one question mark of the team for me is the bullpen. But I don't think it's anything to worry about. They have one of the best closers in baseball. Okajima has been one of the most solid set up guys in baseball since he came to Boston. And a supporting cast of Bard, Ramirez and Delcarmen is better than most guys have in middle relief. If it's that much of a problem, we can always make a trade. The bullpen has the smallest win values of any aspect of a team and it's fairly easy to fix if a team already has a closer and a set up guy.

[BSN07]

Nice post Dipre. Very informative.

Hopefully this constipates the verbal diarrhea that rhet and his legions of "RBI troops".

[jacksonianmarch]

The other question is, should the sox hang onto Lowell and platoon him with Ortiz. Ortiz' OPS vs lefties was .716. Lowell's was .866. Ortiz' OPS vs righties was .850.

[Lester82]

Some words about the improvement the Red Sox made...

"For Boston last year at third base, for example, Mike Lowell, who was unable to move well because of injury, cost them 20 runs, and now they have Adrian Beltre, and he added about 20 runs," Dewan explains. "Right there, the Red Sox have added four wins. Plus they've added three wins at short with Marco Scutaro and a couple more in the outfield with Mike Cameron. It's a huge improvement."

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20100110&content_id=7897834&vkey=news_mlb&fext=.jsp&c_id=mlb

[Imperial59]

Defense wins games. It's not as sexy as home runs or strikeouts, but it's highly effective.

"Seattle traded for outfielders Franklin Gutierrez and Endy Chavez and ended up improving their overall defense so much that they went from an American League-worst 61-101 record in 2008 to an 85-77 campaign last year, the biggest improvement in the Majors, despite scoring fewer runs than they did in '08."

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20100110&content_id=7897834&vkey=news_mlb&fext=.jsp&c_id=mlb

[Dipre]

Some words about the improvement the Red Sox made...

"For Boston last year at third base, for example, Mike Lowell, who was unable to move well because of injury, cost them 20 runs, and now they have Adrian Beltre, and he added about 20 runs," Dewan explains. "Right there, the Red Sox have added four wins. Plus they've added three wins at short with Marco Scutaro and a couple more in the outfield with Mike Cameron. It's a huge improvement."

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20100110&content_id=7897834&vkey=news_mlb&fext=.jsp&c_id=mlb

Nice find.

Kudos.

[Mr Crunchy]

I dont know much about WAR or SARS or VORP or H1N1 but I do know the reason they tanked 2 years in a row in October was due to their lack of hitting and Josh Beckett acting human when it mattered most.
If Becks pitched like he did in the 03@07 playoffs then we beat Tampa in 08 and we're not so anxious.
So in essence what do we have here now?
The Sox let go their best power guy and replaced him with Mike Cameron.
The Sox replaced Lowell with a guy who hit 8hrs last year and has a career OBP of .325
So we get Cameron Lackey and Beltre for what amounts to be Jason Bay...
When put in this context its easier to swallow.
Beltre played in 111 games last year down from 143 which was down from 149 which was down from 156....Is this a trend? The boy reeks of roid abuse and the stats back it up
49HRS in Chavez Ravine in 2004 then Seattle signs him and he drops to 19 and then back up to 26 a couple of times, thats a tuff place to hit HRS in but not that much tuffer than LA is.
Did Brady Anderson shanghai his body for that 1 season?
I dont understand the urgency in getting rid of Lowell, we're going to pay for him no matter where he is playing, why not keep his ass on our bench?
the guy can still hit and he did outperform Beltre in every offensive category that matters.
i wouldnt have a problem with Lowell staying here to DH from time to time, pinch hit and fill in at 3rd when Beltre isnt playing...
Overall Boston is better this year than last.
with John Lackey,Mike Cameron and Beltre coming to town and Jason Bay leaving I like the team better than last year but I still dont see the offensive worries being settled and that was our downfall 2 Octobers in a row..

[Dipre]

I dont know much about WAR or SARS or VORP or H1N1 but I do know the reason they tanked 2 years in a row in October was due to their lack of hitting and Josh Beckett acting human when it mattered most.
If Becks pitched like he did in the 03@07 playoffs then we beat Tampa in 08 and we're not so anxious.
So in essence what do we have here now?
The Sox let go their best power guy and replaced him with Mike Cameron.
The Sox replaced Lowell with a guy who hit 8hrs last year and has a career OBP of .325
So we get Cameron Lackey and Beltre for what amounts to be Jason Bay...
When put in this context its easier to swallow.
Beltre played in 111 games last year down from 143 which was down from 149 which was down from 156....Is this a trend? The boy reeks of roid abuse and the stats back it up
49HRS in Chavez Ravine in 2004 then Seattle signs him and he drops to 19 and then back up to 26 a couple of times, thats a tuff place to hit HRS in but not that much tuffer than LA is.
Did Brady Anderson shanghai his body for that 1 season?
I dont understand the urgency in getting rid of Lowell, we're going to pay for him no matter where he is playing, why not keep his ass on our bench?
the guy can still hit and he did outperform Beltre in every offensive category that matters.
i wouldnt have a problem with Lowell staying here to DH from time to time, pinch hit and fill in at 3rd when Beltre isnt playing...
Overall Boston is better this year than last.
with John Lackey,Mike Cameron and Beltre coming to town and Jason Bay leaving I like the team better than last year but I still dont see the offensive worries being settled and that was our downfall 2 Octobers in a row..

The 2009 playoffs offense sample size was three games. Bay didn't help with a .489 OPS (1 for 8 with three walks, the one being a single)

As for Beltre, how about mentioning that before he had shoulder and testicle issues last year, he hit at least 25 homers three years in a row in one of the most righty-power suppressing stadiums in MLB, the diminishing games played year-to-year were a direct result of the shoulder injury that ended up requiring surgery to remove bone spurs. Also, if you use OPS+ (which accounts for stadium factors) Beltre and Lowell have been virtually the same performer over the last four years, and you also forgot about Scutaro, who's an upgrade all things being said.

About Lowell:

Spot for Lowell will emerge. (http://boston.redsox.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20100108&content_id=7892164&vkey=news_bos&fext=.jsp&c_id=bos)

Epstein says he might stay with the ballclub depending on what happens.


"We'll probably be able to put Mike in a situation either here or elsewhere where he can make an impact on a team. If he's a little bit slower rehabbing or hasn't quite gotten back to the position where he can play regularly, then I think Mike feels like if he's going to have a complementary type role, he'd rather have it here, better in Boston than anywhere else, the way he feels about the Red Sox and the way we feel about him. I know it might look awkward from the outside, but it's a situation that will probably take care of itself as long as we stay on the same page, and we certainly are right now."

[yankees228]

Excellent analysis Dipre. I don't have too much to add, except that, once again, I'll credit the flexibility of the Red Sox approach.

Without the Ortiz/Ramirez combination, and with the Yankees now having a similar 3-4, they've realized that they need a different philosophy to compete for a championship.

For much of this decade, both the Yankees and the Red Sox approached each season with similar philosophies; power and OBP. With the Red Sox, at least in the middle of the lineup, having the edge over the Yankees for awhile, maybe the Yankees should have considered going about things a bit differently in an effort to compete. Now, with the Yankees having the clear advantage in the power department and the middle of the order, the Red Sox have adjusted their approach. It should be a fun and interesting season, and I can't wait for it to get started.

[Lester82]

It should be a fun and interesting season, and I can't wait for it to get started.

Amen. The northeast is cold and bleak and I need baseball. Can't wait, I love the team the Sox have assembled. This is gonna be f-u-n in 2010. Watching this monster pitching staff/defense Theo has assembled will be pretty bleeping cool...

[rhet]

Nice post Dipre. Very informative.

Hopefully this constipates the verbal diarrhea that rhet and his legions of "RBI troops".

Well, we do know they're projected to score fewer runs. And that means fewer RBIs. :lol:

[example1]

I dont understand the urgency in getting rid of Lowell, we're going to pay for him no matter where he is playing, why not keep his ass on our bench?
the guy can still hit and he did outperform Beltre in every offensive category that matters.
i wouldnt have a problem with Lowell staying here to DH from time to time, pinch hit and fill in at 3rd when Beltre isnt playing...

Lowell needs to go because he can't field his position well any more. He can't attack the ball coming in, he doesn't react/dive well to prevent doubles down the line, and he even mishandled or threw-away routine GBs this year. I like Lowell as much as the next guy, but I think this rotation will be best served to know that they have the best defense money can buy behind them. I think there will be a trickle-down effect of having great defense.

That's not to say I would endorse a "defense first" approach. I like the Slugging-Gold Glover approach best.

They don't need or expect Beltre to replicate his best seasons. They just need him to hit for some power and play gold glove defense.

[BSN07]

Well, we do know they're projected to score fewer runs. And that means fewer RBIs. :lol:

Nice to see you know how to take a joke :lol:

[BSN07]

As far as the thread topic is concerned,

I think the Sox will have overall similar success to last season. Whether that means WC or the division(if Yankees regress) I don't know. I think they make the playoffs, and I believe that is where the difference will be seen. I think this team is much better suited for the playoffs then last years team was. That's the big difference between this year's and last year's teams IMO.

[rhet]

Seriously, I think the pitching staff has a chance to be spectacular. Bringing in Lackey was an excellent move. Their 1-5 if healthy can dominate.

On offense, if age doesn't catch up with Cameron, I think he'll be a good hitter in Fenway. Not so optimistic about Beltre. Scutaro will provide stability to that position and can produce runs. The big question is Ortiz. If he learns to bunt, he could hit .450.

The bench is much better with Hermida, Hall and Tek.

[Dojji]

Unfortunately, I'm forced to agree with Jacko. Daisuke is not to be counted upon.

It's not the current injuries so much as the fact that Daisuke WILL not trust the team, or let it protect its investments properly. I just think that if he doesn't trust the team, there's NFW the team can rely on him.

[rhet]

Gammons on EEI this morning said he talked with the API people and Dice is in outstanding shape. He might come back with a vengeance.

[Imperial59]

Gammons on EEI this morning said he talked with the API people and Dice is in outstanding shape. He might come back with a vengeance.

I'm excited to see what he can do. They're the same people to turned one of the worst defensive SS into one of the rangiest last year.

[a700hitter]

Have the Sox improved or regressed? It's telling that we are even discussing this issue in a Red Sox forum. It certainly indicates that the Sox moves have not clearly improved the team's competitive position for a World Championship. I think the Yankees largely have stayed in the same place as last year, but they didn't need to improve. The onus was on the Sox to improve, and there is no clear consensus that they have significantly improved.

[Palodios]

I'm hoping that the whole national pride thing works both way. I've read some things about how he was incredibly ashamed of his pitching stats (Not about the team cooperation fiasco however), and by the sound of it, he's been working very hard to make sure that doesn't happen again.

I don't like the guy very much, but when he was in shape this year (for the small sample size of 4 games) he pitched to a 2.2 ERA. Don't expect him to do anything out of character, like learn English or be a team player, but I wouldn't be surprised if he could get averages of 5 to 6 innings a game with sub 3 era and 1.5 whip.

[GiveMeMyNomar5]

I honestly think the Red Sox are regressing on the offensive side of the ball. We are going to have to rely on our defense and pitching this year. We have (arguably) the best starting 5 and defense in the league, along with one of the more dominant closers of the past 4 years. I'm not too worried. If our players stay healthy, and we get good production out of Ortiz this year, we should be fine. We have Ortiz, Vic, and Youk that can go deep 30+ times this year. JD, Cameron, and Beltre will hit between 15-25 dingers, and Scuturo, Ellsbury and Pedey will have fewer than 10 a piece. I'm not all that worried.

[Emmz]

I could potentially see Cameron and Beltre hitting over the 25 mark, but that's a high estimate, maybe even low 30 mark.

I agree that maybe we've regressed on paper, but I expect a full season of Ortiz being about where he was after the terrible start. Add in Beltre, who I believe is about the same as Lowell offensively, with far superior defense, Cameron, who isn't Bay offensively, but his defense is way superior, Scutaro, who's not great defensively, but better than what we had before Gonzales, and MUCH better than anyone we had last year offensively, as well as a full year of V-Mart. I think that brings us pretty close to where we were last season.

Along with that, our starting five is, on paper, the best in baseball, there's not too much of an argument about that (Unless you're a homering Yankee fan who thinks that Vasquez is going to be an ace this year. Not naming any names).

All of the improvements and upgrades, in my opinion, make us a better ball club, and I expect us to win more games, and compete in the playoffs. I also like that the Yankees have offensively regressed, replacing Damon, Matsui and Melky with Nick "Feeblebonez" Johnson, Curtis Granderson and Brett "The Benchwarmer" Gardner.

[Imperial59]

I honestly think the Red Sox are regressing on the offensive side of the ball. We are going to have to rely on our defense and pitching this year. We have (arguably) the best starting 5 and defense in the league, along with one of the more dominant closers of the past 4 years. I'm not too worried. If our players stay healthy, and we get good production out of Ortiz this year, we should be fine. We have Ortiz, Vic, and Youk that can go deep 30+ times this year. JD, Cameron, and Beltre will hit between 15-25 dingers, and Scuturo, Ellsbury and Pedey will have fewer than 10 a piece. I'm not all that worried.

This has been discussed a couple times, but I don't think we're regressing all that much offensively. We're losing a good chunk of offense going from Bay to Cameron, no doubt. But we're picking up a good chunk of offense going from Varitek to V-Mart, from Green to Scutaro and from Lowell to Beltre.

Perhaps there will be some minor regression, but I think the MAJOR improvements we made to our pitching and defense will be more than enough to improve on the 95 win team we had last year.

And offensively, there are some things that could happen that improve our offense compared to last year. If Ellsbury's .389 OBP in the minors finally translates to the majors, we're a better offensive team. If David Ortiz has a bounce back year, we're much better offensively. If Feway Park has the effect on Beltre that it did in Lowell, we could have another 30 HR, 100 RBI middle of the order bat.

If you remember, Lowell went from a .236/.298/.360 hitter for Florida in 2005 to a .284/.339/.475 hitter for us the next year and a .324/.378/.501 hitter the year after. Fenway can do wonders for RH pull hitters like Beltre.

[Imperial59]

I could potentially see Cameron and Beltre hitting over the 25 mark, but that's a high estimate, maybe even low 30 mark.

I think it's rather safe to estimate 25 home runs for Beltre. He's hit 25+ 3 of the last 4 years hitting in Safeco and on the road he's been a 30 HR, 100 RBI hitter.

[Emmz]

This has been discussed a couple times, but I don't think we're regressing all that much offensively. We're losing a good chunk of offense going from Bay to Cameron, no doubt. But we're picking up a good chunk of offense going from Varitek to V-Mart, from Green to Scutaro and from Lowell to Beltre.

Perhaps there will be some minor regression, but I think the MAJOR improvements we made to our pitching and defense will be more than enough to improve on the 95 win team we had last year.

And offensively, there are some things that could happen that improve our offense compared to last year. If Ellsbury's .389 OBP in the minors finally translates to the majors, we're a better offensive team. If David Ortiz has a bounce back year, we're much better offensively. If Feway Park has the effect on Beltre that it did in Lowell, we could have another 30 HR, 100 RBI middle of the order bat.

If you remember, Lowell went from a .236/.298/.360 hitter for Florida in 2005 to a .284/.339/.475 hitter for us the next year and a .324/.378/.501 hitter the year after. Fenway can do wonders for RH pull hitters like Beltre.

Not to mention Beltre has more power than Lowell ever had.

[Emmz]

And Cameron has hit around 20-25 HR in San Diego and Milwaukee over the past 4 seasons... I think he could certainly hit the upper half of the 20's at Fenway, with low-30's being the absolute dream scenario.

[Dipre]

One look at Beltre's home/road splits and one look at Fenway's effect on right handed flyball hitters, as well as another look at Beltre's and Lowell's career stats, and logic keeps hitting me with its hammer telling me there will be no "significant dropoff" going from one to the other no matter what some biased Yankee fans might want me to believe.

[Imperial59]

Not to mention Beltre has more power than Lowell ever had.

I don't know if he has more power than Lowell EVER had. Lowell did hit 32 home runs one year. But Lowell hasn't reached the 25 home run mark since 2004. Beltre's done it three of the last four years.

[Dipre]

I don't know if he has more power than Lowell EVER had. Lowell did hit 32 home runs one year. But Lowell hasn't reached the 25 home run mark since 2004. Beltre's done it three of the last four years.

Beltre hit 48 once. They might have both been aided by the same brand of milkshakes......

[Imperial59]

And Cameron has hit around 20-25 HR in San Diego and Milwaukee over the past 4 seasons... I think he could certainly hit the upper half of the 20's at Fenway, with low-30's being the absolute dream scenario.

Cameron will probably see a bump in his numbers being that he's going from some very unfriendly hitting parks to Fenway Park. It's impressive that he hit 20+ home runs both his years playing in San Diego.

[Imperial59]

Beltre hit 48 once. They might have both been aided by the same brand of milkshakes......

Yeah, if we're talking about the players off of steroids, Beltre has much more power :D

[rhet]

Beltre hit 48 once. They might have both been aided by the same brand of milkshakes......


Really?
Do you know what steroids do to people with cancer?

[rhet]

One look at Beltre's home/road splits and one look at Fenway's effect on right handed flyball hitters, as well as another look at Beltre's and Lowell's career stats, and logic keeps hitting me with its hammer telling me there will be no "significant dropoff" going from one to the other no matter what some biased Yankee fans might want me to believe.


Except for about 40 points off OBP.

[Keeper]

Cameron will probably see a bump in his numbers being that he's going from some very unfriendly hitting parks to Fenway Park. It's impressive that he hit 20+ home runs both his years playing in San Diego.

Miller Park is a hitter's park. What about his age? He's 37 now. Jeter is a year and a half younger. Posada is not quite a year older. According to you, they will almost certainly regress. I can't argue with that, but why the double standard for Cameron?

[SoxSport]

They should be significantly improved. I still can't figure out how they managed to win 95 games last year, so I don't expect their wins to increase by much.

[Dipre]

Except for about 40 points off OBP.

This has to be a joke, because if it isn't, then please check the stats.

[Dipre]

Really?
Do you know what steroids do to people with cancer?

Really?

Do you have any way to know if any player (Lowell included) didn't use steroids at some point in their career?

[jacksonianmarch]

Miller Park is a hitter's park. What about his age? He's 37 now. Jeter is a year and a half younger. Posada is not quite a year older. According to you, they will almost certainly regress. I can't argue with that, but why the double standard for Cameron?

exactly. I couldnt agree more

[Dipre]

I say no on regression for Cameron or Jeter. If Posada catches less than 120 games, no on him either.

[Imperial59]

Miller Park is a hitter's park.

http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/parkfactor

Actually, it's one of the most extreme pitcher's parks in baseball.


What about his age? He's 37 now. Jeter is a year and a half younger. Posada is not quite a year older. According to you, they will almost certainly regress. I can't argue with that, but why the double standard for Cameron?

I never claimed that Jeter and Posada are going to regress just because of their ages. I said they're going to regress because they had years which were significantly above their career averages last year, and in their late 30's players tend to regress towards their career averages and eventually decline.

[Imperial59]

exactly. I couldnt agree more

Of course you agree that Miller Park is a friendly hitter's park even though it's an extreme pitcher's park. You'd agree with someone who disagreed with me if they said the sky was yellow.

[Imperial59]

This has to be a joke, because if it isn't, then please check the stats.

Yeah, I left that one alone because I was baffled by what stats they could have been referring to.

[Dipre]

Of course you agree that Miller Park is a friendly hitter's park even though it's an extreme pitcher's park. You'd agree with someone who disagreed with me if they said the sky was yellow.

Nah dude. Miller is a launching pad for lefties that's around league average for righties, but it's not Fenway, which is a launching pad for righties.

[Emmz]

Miller Park is a hitter's park. What about his age? He's 37 now. Jeter is a year and a half younger. Posada is not quite a year older. According to you, they will almost certainly regress. I can't argue with that, but why the double standard for Cameron?

Because he's going to one of the premier launching pads for his style, something that Miller Park is NOT. Jeter is in the same park this year.

Cameron's stats will go up, Jeter's stats will probably remain about the same, with a probably regression considering the fact that he had about the best year he's EVER had.

That's the difference.

[Imperial59]

Nah dude. Miller is a launching pad for lefties that's around league average for righties, but it's not Fenway, which is a launching pad for righties.

1. Cameron obviously is not a lefty.

2. Miller Park was the 4th worst friendly hitter's park in MLB last year in terms of runs scored.

http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/parkfactor

[yankees228]

1. Cameron obviously is not a lefty.

2. Miller Park was the 4th worst friendly hitter's park in MLB last year in terms of runs scored.

http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/parkfactor

So I guess, by your logic, Yankee Stadium is a pitcher's park...

[Imperial59]

So I guess, by your logic, Yankee Stadium is a pitcher's park...

Yes, Yankee Stadium is a slight pitcher's park (it only cuts down on run production by about 3% so it's nearly neutral). It's the best home run hitting park in baseball, but home runs make up a small portion of team offense.

[Keeper]

Yankee Stadium is a pitcher's park. I'll have to remember that.

[Imperial59]

Yankee Stadium is a pitcher's park. I'll have to remember that.

It's more or less neutral. But Miller Park is not at all neutral. It cut down on run production by 11.5%, which made it the 4th worst hitting ballpark in baseball last year. It has had a negative effect on run production both of the years that Cameron has played there.

[Emmz]

I personally think that a park that has a strong advantage for a certain type of hitter should be considered hitters parks, with an asterisk. At Miller Park, the advantage did not apply for Cameron, but at Fenway, it would. However, both parks are still hitter's parks. I think the only 100% hitter's park is Coors, which is basically going to bad any, and every type of hitter's stats.

[Dipre]

Yankee Stadium is a launching pad for lefties, but it's a neutral park for righties.

[rhet]

Really?

Do you have any way to know if any player (Lowell included) didn't use steroids at some point in their career?

Well, Lowell is still alive, so that's enough proof to most educated people he didn't do roids during his major league career.

[Dipre]

Well, Lowell is still alive, so that's enough proof to most educated people he didn't do roids during his major league career.

Not if said educated person doesn't seem to know very much about the enormous spectrum that the word "steroid" covers.

[Imperial59]

Well, Lowell is still alive, so that's enough proof to most educated people he didn't do roids during his major league career.

We're talking about steroids, not meth.

[kreinbihl34]

We're talking about steroids, not meth.

He's implying that if Lowell took steroids while he had cancer he would dead, which is correct.

[Dipre]

He's implying that if Lowell took steroids while he had cancer he would dead, which is correct.

But there's also the fact that he could have taken them before the cancer was discovered, which would still be using steroids. Interestingly enough, anabolic steroids have been closely linked to testicular cancer.

[kreinbihl34]

But there's also the fact that he could have taken them before the cancer was discovered, which would still be using steroids. Interestingly enough, anabolic steroids have been closely linked to testicular cancer.

Haha yeah we were talking about that in Biotechnology the other day.

[Dipre]

Haha yeah we were talking about that in Biotechnology the other day.

Then you know where i'm coming from.

The "milkshake" reference was a joke of course, but trying to imply any player has always been "clean" as of right now is a difficult task., and for the record, Lowell's 32 HR season is simply a slight fluke, since his 17 HR/FB% nearly doubles his career averages. It simply happens sometimes.

[Imperial59]

Here's some food for though.

In 2004 the Red Sox scored 82 more runs than they did in 2007. But if it was the improved defense, not the offense that won it for us in 2007. They went from the second worst defense in baseball in 2004 (according to UZR) to the 7th best and their run differential improved by 68 runs, event though they lost 82 runs of offense.

[Imperial59]

If anyone doubts that defense is a major difference maker, tust look at the teams that have played in the World Series lately.

Yankees - 19th in UZR, Phillies - 8th in UZR
Rays - 1st in UZR, Phillies - 2nd in UZR
Red Sox - 7th in UZR, Rockies - 10th in UZR
Tigers - 3rd in UZR, Cardinals - 10th in UZR
White Sox - 4th in UZR, Astros - 11th in UZR
Red Sox - 29th in UZR, Cardinals - 8th in UZR

Only 2 out of 12 teams that made the World Series had poor defense. 9 of the 12 teams were in the top 1/3 of team UZR. And the only two teams that won the World Series with a poor defense scored over 900 runs, which isn't realistically in reach for us next year.

[example1]

If anyone doubts that defense is a major difference maker, tust look at the teams that have played in the World Series lately.

Yankees - 19th in UZR, Phillies - 8th in UZR
Rays - 1st in UZR, Phillies - 2nd in UZR
Red Sox - 7th in UZR, Rockies - 10th in UZR
Tigers - 3rd in UZR, Cardinals - 10th in UZR
White Sox - 4th in UZR, Astros - 11th in UZR
Red Sox - 29th in UZR, Cardinals - 8th in UZR

Only 2 out of 12 teams that made the World Series had poor defense. 9 of the 12 teams were in the top 1/3 of team UZR. And the only two teams that won the World Series with a poor defense scored over 900 runs, which isn't realistically in reach for us next year.

Defense is a very easy way for this club to improve itself. If they had just let Bay go and acquired Beltre and Cameron then I would acknowledge it isn't a net gain. However, the addition of Lackey will have a big impact throughout this team and will maxamize that defensive improvement.

They retain all of their good prospects, they got 3 established MLB players on reasonable contracts that stand little chance of hindering the team in the future, and they maxamized their draft picks for next year. I'm extremely confident that this team is going to be good next year, and very very good within the next few years.

[jacksonianmarch]

Heard Gammons on EEI a couple days ago making predictions about the new acqusitions.

He said nothing about Lackey other than the obvious, good pitcher, some injury concerns, should be a great addition.

He said that Cameron would hit .270 with 25 HRs. BTW, Cameron hit .270 or higher once in his career. In 2005 in an injury plagued yr for the Mets.

He also said that he expects Beltre to hit 32HRs next yr in Fenway.

Remember the predictions from last yr? Brad Penny will be the best #5 pitcher in the American League. Well, he became the sox #3 starter and by the end, he was miserable

And John Smoltz will be the best pitcher in the AL in September. That went over well too.

He did say a few things I agree with. He did say that the Red Sox are the second best team in the AL. I agree with him there. Then went on to say that they are the second best team in baseball. I think they are in a dead heat with the Phils on that one, but an argument can be made.

[a700hitter]

Gammons is a stroke victim. That has probably impaired his judgment.

[Dipre]

Heard Gammons on EEI a couple days ago making predictions about the new acqusitions.

He said nothing about Lackey other than the obvious, good pitcher, some injury concerns, should be a great addition.

He said that Cameron would hit .270 with 25 HRs. BTW, Cameron hit .270 or higher once in his career. In 2005 in an injury plagued yr for the Mets.

He also said that he expects Beltre to hit 32HRs next yr in Fenway.

Remember the predictions from last yr? Brad Penny will be the best #5 pitcher in the American League. Well, he became the sox #3 starter and by the end, he was miserable

And John Smoltz will be the best pitcher in the AL in September. That went over well too.

He did say a few things I agree with. He did say that the Red Sox are the second best team in the AL. I agree with him there. Then went on to say that they are the second best team in baseball. I think they are in a dead heat with the Phils on that one, but an argument can be made.

Cameron may not hit .270, but he'll hit 25 jacks easy.

Beltre hit 25 or more three times in Seattle, so why couldn't he hit 30 at Fenway?

I don't care how his predictions went last year, but that doesn't seem a stretch at all unless, of course, you're on the receiving end.

[Palodios]

They retain all of their good prospects, they got 3 established MLB players on reasonable contracts that stand little chance of hindering the team in the future, and they maxamized their draft picks for next year. I'm extremely confident that this team is going to be good next year, and very very good within the next few years.

Everything they've done this year has focused on two things-- staying competitive and keeping focused on the long term.

By signing Lackey, they protect their pitching prospects from getting called up too early (Tazawa/Bowden last year) and provides an extra ace, and an insurance policy if Beckett walks. Replacing Lowell protects them from a mid-season injury risk, and gives Lowrie more time to develop after two years of wrist injuries. If they trade Lowell, they will be sure to get a decent prospect in return but right now he's a huge asset from the bench, and so is Hall.

They made no big trades, protecting their prospects, but still making all the key replacements needed while staying under the luxury tax. And while they lost a few picks on the type A's, they more than replaced it because they lost wagner and bay to free agency for the four extra high picks. Losing Bay did hurt the offense, but they didn't hurt themselves with a five-year contract on an injury risk player. J Hermida was a good pickup with a nice upside, without losing much for him. Also, convincing Casey Kelley to give up his aspiration as an infielder may be the team's best move all season.

Personally, I don't like the Beltre move, or letting Bay go, but I can definitely see why they made the moves they have. If they stay healthy and perform, I don't see them missing the playoffs.

[a700hitter]

They are marginally better than last year, but that will not be enough unless the Yankees get some injuries and perform below expectations.

[Dipre]

The improvement is not marginal. It's substantial.

The fact that Penny, Smoltz, Lugo and Varitek are not regulars on this team is a huge upgrade all by itself, everything else is just gravy.

[a700hitter]

The improvement is not marginal. It's substantial.

The fact that Penny, Smoltz, Lugo and Varitek are not regulars on this team is a huge upgrade all by itself, everything else is just gravy.They took a step back in offense, and although Varitek is not a starter, we are not rid of him. He will play about 50 or so games, forcing Beltre, VMart, Youk or Ortiz to the bench those games. If the pitching stays healthy, they will be better than last season. If one of the starters has injury problems, I think we could be wore than last year. Overall, I think the team is marginally better off than last year. If they had gotten Holliday, the improvement would havve been significant. We improved two aspects (pitching and defense) but we slid back on offense. Of course Beltre could play his ass off to get a big contract and Dice K could finally become the Dice K we thought we were getting and everything will be beautiful in the Nation. That's the best case scenario. More realistically, they will be marginally better-- 1 or 2 wins.

[Dipre]

They took a step back in offense, and although Varitek is not a starter, we are not rid of him. He will play about 50 or so games, forcing Beltre, VMart, Youk or Ortiz to the bench those games. If the pitching stays healthy, they will be better than last season. If one of the starters has injury problems, I think we could be wore than last year. Overall, I think the team is marginally better off than last year. If they had gotten Holliday, the improvement would havve been significant. We improved two aspects (pitching and defense) but we slid back on offense. Of course Beltre could play his ass off to get a big contract and Dice K could finally become the Dice K we thought we were getting and everything will be beautiful in the Nation. That's the best case scenario. More realistically, they will be marginally better-- 1 or 2 wins.

If the Sox maximize Varitek's offensive value (He can still rake at home vs lefties) and have the balls to platoon Ortiz versus lefties if he's not effective against them, that could lessen the blow significantly. Regarding Dice-K, if there's a year i believe he's going to pitch his ass off, it's this year. He's a prima-donna and his pride is hurt. Beltre's going to play for his money, and the ballpark will benefit him. They probably should keep Lowell around to platoon with Ortiz and get some starts. That setup would maximize the team's offensive value.

[Imperial59]

Heard Gammons on EEI a couple days ago making predictions about the new acqusitions.

He said nothing about Lackey other than the obvious, good pitcher, some injury concerns, should be a great addition.

He said that Cameron would hit .270 with 25 HRs. BTW, Cameron hit .270 or higher once in his career. In 2005 in an injury plagued yr for the Mets.

He also said that he expects Beltre to hit 32HRs next yr in Fenway.

Yeah, not sure where he's getting the .270 AVG from. I could care less about what AVG Cameron hits for though. The 25 home runs is a pretty safe guess, he's hit 24 and 25 each of the last two years.

Beltre hitting 32 home runs in Fenway is certainly possible. He hit 25+ 2006-2008 in a very unfriendly hitting park. His road splits suggest he could have hit 30 home runs had he played all his games away from Safeco.

If Fenway Park improves Beltre's numbers anywhere near the level it improved Lowell's, we've got another middle of the order bat.

[Imperial59]

If the Sox maximize Varitek's offensive value (He can still rake at home vs lefties) and have the balls to platoon Ortiz versus lefties if he's not effective against them, that could lessen the blow significantly.

Yeah, I'm really not too worried about Varitek. He hat an .807 OPS vs. lefties last year and an .821 OPS at home. Victor Martinez has hit righties better over his career, so playing Varitek against some lefties should improve both their offensive value. Plus, he's shown an ability to hit well at the beginning of the year when he's well rested. He usually has an OPS over .800 in April and May. I think getting regular rest will do his bat wonders.

[Dipre]

Yeah, I'm really not too worried about Varitek. He hat an .807 OPS vs. lefties last year and an .821 OPS at home. Victor Martinez has hit righties better over his career, so playing Varitek against some lefties should improve both their offensive value. Plus, he's shown an ability to hit well at the beginning of the year when he's well rested. He usually has an OPS over .800 in April and May. I think getting regular rest will do his bat wonders.

Jason Varitek OPS by month:

April: .803

May: .849

June: .749

July: .819

August: .773

September/October: .679

With the exception of June, he's a much better hitter the first 2/3 of the season.

[Imperial59]

I'm especially interested to see what Scutaro can do. He had a +20.3 UZR at shortstop in 2008, and he lead all AL shortstops in UZR/150 in the first half of last year before his foot slowed him down. All he needs to do is have a .700 OPS and he'll be an improvement offensively over the combined OPS our 2009 shortstops. And Scutaro's another guy who figures to get an offensive boost coming to Fenway. He's played most of his career in the Rogers Center and the Coliseum, neither of which are very friendly to hitters.

If he can just play solid defense and be a .350 OBP guy at the bottom of the order, we'd be a lot better off than we were last year.

[The Black Prince]

Pretty much the same quality team IMO, a little better. I'm just waiting on that move that puts us over the top - ADRIAN GONZALEZ - it' gonna happen in June/July, with a contract extension.

[Keeper]

Pretty much the same quality team IMO, a little better. I'm just waiting on that move that puts us over the top - ADRIAN GONZALEZ - it' gonna happen in June/July, with a contract extension.

Barring a significant injury to Beltre, Youkilis, or Ortiz it's not going to happen. There's simply no room for him on the roster.

[BSN07]

Barring a significant injury to Beltre, Youkilis, or Ortiz it's not going to happen. There's simply no room for him on the roster.

Yup. Maybe next off season though.

[SoxSport]

Funny thing about media predictions. They might be called the kiss of death, because they never seem to be right. I've often wondered how all those analysts would look if they graded themselves on their predictions. LOL. But they never do, which is understandable. That doesn't prevent them from grading trades and signings, etc that teams make. And even take polls about them. None of this stuff, in my view, should be taken too seriously, since it's all basically entertainment. You make your own judgements based on the facts available, and let it go at that.

[SoxSport]

On this subject of defense, it has to help the pitching. And I think the Red Sox vs Yankees struggle over the years has always been about pitching. That was true in the 40s and early 50s when NY had the pitching advantage, and also the 2000 decade, when the Red Sox had the pitching advantage--except last year when the Yankees signed the top two FA starters and the Red Sox starting pitching took a dive--with Dice-K, Penny, Smoltz and a poor spring from Beckett and Lester. Wake saved them in the spring, but he is only a half-season pitcher these days.

I still can't figure out how they won 95 games. Their home record, obviously. They are tough to beat at home--with the small park, the soldout crowds, etc.

This year, barring injuries, they should be better. Their pitching should be much better. The lineup is deeper, and some of their pickups should benefit from Fenway , as Gammons implies in his predictions mentioned earlier.

[SoxSport]

Pretty much the same quality team IMO, a little better. I'm just waiting on that move that puts us over the top - ADRIAN GONZALEZ - it' gonna happen in June/July, with a contract extension.

I wonder if this will happen now that Beltre is in the fold. If he shows anything the first half, there won't be much incentive. I don't think Epstein wants to give up his present and future young outfielders at this point--not with Cameron and Drew ageing.

I also think the "poor" teams are under some pressure to retain a core of their stars--look at the Marlins extending JJ and HR. And then there's Greineke and Lincecum. Baseball right now looks like a two-tier sport, and they don't want to make it any worse. I think SD needs to keep AdGon.

[Dojji]

The union is actually starting to take action against teams receiving RS money who aren't spending it on roster. They filed something or other against the Marlins this offseason to that effect. I wouldn't be surprised if a few signings were anounced in the near future just to mollify the MLBPA. Adgon is a good candidate.

[Dipre]

The union is actually starting to take action against teams receiving RS money who aren't spending it on roster. They filed something or other against the Marlins this offseason to that effect. I wouldn't be surprised if a few signings were anounced in the near future just to mollify the MLBPA. Adgon is a good candidate.

I think Gonzales hits the FA market. Why take a "hometown discount" when you can both get paid a lot more money, and get the hell out of Petco.

[Palodios]

Didn't he sign a hometown contract last time around?

[Dipre]

Didn't he sign a hometown contract last time around?

That's the point.

Why would he do it again?

Last time he forsake money for security, but this time, he'll hit the FA market in before he's 30, and if he keeps putting up numbers like the last couple of years, he'll not only be able to get a massive contract, but also get out of that horrible stadium and play for a contender.

[jacksonianmarch]

Its always difficult to assess how a guy like Gonzalez is gonna move especially since he already took a hometowner once. That being said, guys who start getting some experience behind them but havent tasted success will crave it. If the Padres kids grow up a little next yr and the Pads are around the .500 range, then I bet they could get something done. If the Pads suck again, then I bet Adrian is beating his head against a wall trying to get out of there. My bet is that he never reaches FA due to a trade and a contract extension

[riverside sluggers]

This year its a very good bet that they could end up being the worst team in baseball. The latest he will be a Padre, is the 2011 trade deadline IMO

[riverside sluggers]

Barring a significant injury to Beltre, Youkilis, or Ortiz it's not going to happen. There's simply no room for him on the roster.

If they have a chance at the deadline to get him, they will make the move. And its not set in stone that Ortiz will be a force this coming season

[yankees228]

On this subject of defense, it has to help the pitching. And I think the Red Sox vs Yankees struggle over the years has always been about pitching. That was true in the 40s and early 50s when NY had the pitching advantage, and also the 2000 decade, when the Red Sox had the pitching advantage--except last year when the Yankees signed the top two FA starters and the Red Sox starting pitching took a dive--with Dice-K, Penny, Smoltz and a poor spring from Beckett and Lester. Wake saved them in the spring, but he is only a half-season pitcher these days.

I still can't figure out how they won 95 games. Their home record, obviously. They are tough to beat at home--with the small park, the soldout crowds, etc.

This year, barring injuries, they should be better. Their pitching should be much better. The lineup is deeper, and some of their pickups should benefit from Fenway , as Gammons implies in his predictions mentioned earlier.

The Yankees' pitching was hardly anything special last year. Consider the following...

-It was shaky to the point where they were forced to go with a three man rotation in the playoffs.

-Those three guys produced ERA+'s of 127, 106, and 103, one of the worst pitching staffs of a World Series winner in the history of baseball.

-Meanwhile, the Red Sox top three produced ERA+'s of 138, 122, and 111 (16 starts).

-The bottom of both team's pitching staffs were wildly inconsistent.

There was a reason many people, including many people on this site, felt that the Red Sox were better prepared to make a postseason run than the Yankees. The Yankees' starting pitching (with the exception of a few games) stepped up in the postseason, but in the regular season, the difference wasn't the starting pitching.

[jacksonianmarch]

The consistency of the offense and the developing consistency of the bullpen was the reason for our AL East title. Our offense continually gave us leads, and outside of April, when we handed those leads to the pen, we didnt give them up.

[Keeper]

If they have a chance at the deadline to get him, they will make the move. And its not set in stone that Ortiz will be a force this coming season

I think if they had wanted him that badly, they would have traded for him instead of getting Beltre. Hoyer was asking for a lot, but it could have got done, IMO. However, since Beltre will presumably only be here for a year, that leaves the door open for next offseason, assuming Gonzalez is still available.

I agree with you on Ortiz. If he gets off to another slow start and doesn't pick it up in June like he did in 2009, Theo shouldn't hesitate to give up on Ortiz and aggressively pursue Gonzalez.

[Lester82]

Just noticed this to bring back the topic of whether the Red Sox had improved or not...

http://news.bostonherald.com/sports/columnists/view/20100129red_sox_uzr__drs__wait_till_next_year/srvc=home&position=also

Yikes, Ron Borges.

[Imperial59]

Just noticed this to bring back the topic of whether the Red Sox had improved or not...

http://news.bostonherald.com/sports/columnists/view/20100129red_sox_uzr__drs__wait_till_next_year/srvc=home&position=also

Yikes, Ron Borges.

I stopped reading after this:


According to Epstein, the Red Sox will be competitive through the use of kung fu baseball, the art of winning without scoring. They will be so flawless in the field that opponents will simply forfeit, their inability to penetrate the Steel Curtain Defense so frustrating that the other side simply resigns. Sort of like playing Bobby Fischer in chess.

The Red Sox scored the third most runs in baseball last year by more than a 50 year margin. Anyone who doesn't think they're going to be one of the best hitting teams in baseball next year is fooling themselves. Only this time around they'll also have some of the best defense and pitching in baseball.

We don't need to lead the league in runs scored when we're also a top pitching and defensive team.

[example1]

That article is a rant of epic proportions and doesn't seem very well thought-out.

[Imperial59]

That article is a rant of epic proportions and doesn't seem very well thought-out.

Yeah, to be honest it sounds like something the average guy in a bar who follows the Red Sox but really cares more about the Patriots or Celtics would say.

[Lester82]

Football writers tend to screw up when talking Red Sox, baseball. Since Borges is a football guy. (And man he hates Belichick). I know he's covered boxing as well.

[Imperial59]

Football writers tend to screw up when talking Red Sox, baseball. Since Borges is a football guy. (And man he hates Belichick). I know he's covered boxing as well.

I didn't know he was a football guy, but that would explain it. He very much sounded like a fan of another sport who was trying to make a judgment in a team he didn't understand very well.

[jacksonianmarch]

I think a lot of you guys are really blowing over the possibility that the offense takes a nose-dive here. You lose a guy like Bay, who was your biggest power threat and was your second best hitter by far and add in a 38 yr old CFer and a 3B who is coming off an injury plagued season that was absolutely and totally putrid.
Here's the lineup I think Theo puts out there

1. Ellsbury CF
2. Pedroia 2B
3. Martinez C
4. Youkilis 1B
5. Ortiz DH
6. Beltre 3B
7. Drew RF
8. Cameron CF
9. Scutaro SS


I like your top 4, but your #3 hitter really isnt a great #3 in terms of OPS

Ellsbury-Pedroia-VMart-Youkilis is still solid, even with VMart being a mid .800s OPS guy in a spot where a team like the sox should have a .900+ guy

Papi-Beltre in the 5-6 hole could be huge or could be a massive, gaping hole. You are expecting Papi to play above his prior season's performance where he looked done for half a season and then looked solid the rest of the way. And you have Beltre who did play 111 games last season and only mustered 8 homers and a sub .700OPS. These guys are gonna be the crux of the lineup IMO. And there is a very good chance that they will stumble

Drew-Cameron-Scutaro. Drew will do his OBP thing and be fine assuming he stays healthy, which is a very big concern. Cameron is a very good #8 hitter. Scutaro is a good #9 if he continues to his to the .780OPS from last yr, his career high. But if he reverts to the sub .700 guy he has been for half his career, then he could be a total offensive liability.

I like the sox depth of their lineup as 1-9 is gonna be a tough out (aside from the free swinging Beltre that is). But you have 2 guys in the middle of the order who are massive questionmarks, something that the sox havent seen in years.

[Mr Crunchy]

If my balls were on your chin...
Good points MJ, they've lost their best power hitter and replaced him with 2 men who are stellar defensively but offensively they've seen their best days I fear.
They need an offensive strategy that takes advantage of their speed.
You'll see more running, more hit and runs and more 1st to 3rds on a single than ever before.
However the 3run homer in the 6th inning to get you back in a game maybe elusive for us.
Its going to be difficult to see this team attempt small ball but I think in tight games we're going to have to consider this as a primary option, everyone on this club needs to learn how to bunt with the exception of Ortiz, he'd only hurt himself trying.

[Dojji]

Actually Ortiz is no stranger to bunting. He's done it from time to time to try to keep the overshift honest. I honestly think he should do it more often -- with the 3B playing shortstop there's a huge hole down the third base line if he can deaden it. And if he did it consistently, or tried it consistently, against the overshift he'd beat a few out and force the manager to think twice about giving him that much bunting room. If he could intimidate the overshift a little he'd probably get more honest hits for awhile.

Especially he should bunt with a lefty on the mound, since the pitcher is almost obliged to field bunts in an overshift, and the bunt play down the third base line is fairly awkward for an LHP to field.

[Plumpamania]

I think a lot of you guys are really blowing over the possibility that the offense takes a nose-dive here. You lose a guy like Bay, who was your biggest power threat and was your second best hitter by far and add in a 38 yr old CFer and a 3B who is coming off an injury plagued season that was absolutely and totally putrid.
Here's the lineup I think Theo puts out there

1. Ellsbury CF
2. Pedroia 2B
3. Martinez C
4. Youkilis 1B
5. Ortiz DH
6. Beltre 3B
7. Drew RF
8. Cameron CF
9. Scutaro SS

Glad Theo makes up the line ups..


I like your top 4, but your #3 hitter really isnt a great #3 in terms of OPS

Ellsbury-Pedroia-VMart-Youkilis is still solid, even with VMart being a mid .800s OPS guy in a spot where a team like the sox should have a .900+ guy

Let's see what VMart does with a better line up and a more hitter's park around him...


Papi-Beltre in the 5-6 hole could be huge or could be a massive, gaping hole. You are expecting Papi to play above his prior season's performance where he looked done for half a season and then looked solid the rest of the way. And you have Beltre who did play 111 games last season and only mustered 8 homers and a sub .700OPS. These guys are gonna be the crux of the lineup IMO. And there is a very good chance that they will stumble

Agreed, but I want to see you play baseball with a ruptured testicle and produce.


Drew-Cameron-Scutaro. Drew will do his OBP thing and be fine assuming he stays healthy, which is a very big concern. Cameron is a very good #8 hitter. Scutaro is a good #9 if he continues to his to the .780OPS from last yr, his career high. But if he reverts to the sub .700 guy he has been for half his career, then he could be a total offensive liability.

J.D. Drew was one of the best outfielders in baseball last year and he's still hitting seventh. I love that. 20+~ Homeruns out of our #8 slot. And Scutaro could be the best #9 hitter in baseball.


I like the sox depth of their lineup as 1-9 is gonna be a tough out (aside from the free swinging Beltre that is). But you have 2 guys in the middle of the order who are massive questionmarks, something that the sox havent seen in years.

If you want to talk about middle of the line up question marks, how about the 38 year old catcher who has missed significant time over the past few years. A second baseman who is streakier than any other hitter in baseball in terms of from year to year...and a DH who has more time on the DL than almost any other player. You replaced Damon with Randy Winn, who had the lowest OPS out of any regular OFer last year...

Yea...You got a great 1-4, I'm not personally sold on the rest of the line up...

[Spudboy]

But he's paid for hitting the ball over the fence.

[Mr Crunchy]

I saw Ortiz bunt in a game against the Angels in the summer of 2007, it didnt confuse me with Vince Coleman or Tommy Herr but he did get it down and far enough up the line where he got a hit out of it.
How that translates in the 9th inning of a tied game with a guy on 2nd and no one out is the issue at hand...As far as JD Drew being one of the best outfielders in the game?
His 135 games played were impressive, his 24/68/279 wasnt, his .389obp was, his 109k's werent.
Id like to see him more aggressive at the plate,his discipline is great to the point of hurting his stats.
Hes got to do better than that if we as a team are to be more successful,especially with the decline of Ortiz and Bays absense....I know many here feel RBI's are useless stats, well heres a case where they matter, sometimes a walk isnt as good as a hit,sometimes you need a double or a Hr or a single up the middle to score....I think this is his bust out year in Boston.
someone stick a hot poker up his ass or tell him how his wife chuggs dick for sport, get this guy fired up even if you gotta throw at him in batting practice....Hes capable of so much more with the gifts hes been blessed with, this is the 30/110/.290 year we've been desperatley waiting on.

[Dojji]

But he's paid for hitting the ball over the fence.

He's getting paid to produce offensively. HR's are part of that, but only part. If he invests in a few bunt singles, and it makes managers back off the overshift, that's a worthy investment of a few bunts where there might have been big swings, as he'll sacrifice one or two potential homers for maybe as many as 5-10 additional doubles.

Also, they only really overshift on Big Papi when there aren't lots of baserunners on, so in those situations he's still free to swing for the downs and has a better chance of something falling in if it doesn't work out.

Any time there's an LHP on the mound and nobody on, Ortiz should drop one down. He should do it until the infield has to stay put when there's a lefty on the mound. That way the managers get to choose -- the Lefty Specialist, or the Overshift. One or the other. But not both.

[Plumpamania]

From: http://www.sportsofboston.com/2009/10/23/in-defense-of-j-d-drew/


Red Sox General Manager, and erstwhile boy wonder, Theo Epstein graced Boston sports talk radio with his presence, and his opinions on Thursday. The results were interesting, to say the least. Among other things, Theo unequivocally defended his right fielder, David Jonathan “J.D.” Drew, and, in fact, referred to him as “one of the two or three most valuable outfielders in the league.” Judging by the responses of the callers, Red Sox Nation was not amused.

Drew is a polarizing figure, who draws the ire of fans for reasons both real and imagined. Essentially, the criticism of Drew boils down to three things: (1) he is vastly overpaid, (2) he doesn’t seem to care, and (3) he is injury prone. I will argue that only the third criticism is valid.

Drew’s Durability, Dollars, and Demeanor
Durability is not J.D. Drew’s strong suit. In eleven full seasons in the Major Leagues, he has never played more than 146 games. In three seasons in Boston, Drew has averaged 129 games played. He reminds me of another smooth, oft-injured Sox outfielder—Fred Lynn. When he is on the field, he is productive. He is not, however, going to remind anybody of Cal Ripken, Jr.

As for his demeanor, or the fact that he is “overpaid,” I don’t think they have any relevancy at all. Why should any of us care how much money he makes? We are not shareholders, so why does it matter how much of John Henry’s cash he deposits in his bank account? The Red Sox are among the wealthiest teams in baseball, so do not believe for one moment that Drew’s contract will prevent them from signing any, and I mean any, player they want to. What about high ticket prices, you say? I could write a whole piece on why ticket prices are not correlated in any way to team payroll, but I won’t—I promise. As for his demeanor, who cares what a player looks like. Players should be judged by their numbers, by their productivity, if you will.

Back, then, to his production, for a moment. In arguing his case for Drew, Theo stated, inter alia, that “primitive” baseball statistics such as batting average, home runs, and RBI are a poor judge of a player’s value. This is, in fact, the rub. To fans of a certain age—this author included—the value of a player was measured by the “back of his baseball card” numbers. It was only grudgingly that I accepted the superiority of the Sabermetric approach pioneered by Bill James. Many have still not accepted the James approach; and if you haven’t, then Drew is a hard sell indeed.

Sabermetric Theory
A brief digression into basic Sabermetric theory is, I believe, in order. At its most basic, the James approach seeks to remove context-dependent statistics from player evaluation. For instance, RBI and Runs Scored are often cited as proof that a player is “productive.” It is obvious, however, that those stats are heavily dependent upon context. A player can only drive in runners if they are on base, and can only score a run if somebody drives him in. So far, so good. Batting average is context-independent, and thus seemingly a valuable tool for judging a player. Closer examination, however, demonstrates an obvious problem: a player with a high batting average who does not walk very much or hit home runs (Juan Pierre) is less clearly less “productive” than a player with a low batting average who walks a lot and hits home runs (Adam Dunn). Fans know this intuitively, and the numbers back this up.

As anyone who read Moneyball knows, the “hot” statistic of the last decade is On-Base Percentage (OBP). The reason OBP is so critical is that the most important number in baseball is three—the numbers of outs allotted to each team in an inning. Every out made dramatically affects the probability that runs will be scored. Thus, the importance placed upon “not making outs,” which is the concept neatly expressed by OBP. Most of us who played little league were once told that “a walk is as good as a hit.” This is, of course, not quite true. A walk is (almost) as good as a single. Doubles, triples and, especially, home runs are better. Thus, Slugging Percentage is a valuable statistic. In an attempt to measure the overall value of an offensive player, the two statistics have been combined as On Base Plus Slugging, or OPS. If you look at the history books, or, actually, Baseball-Reference.com, you will find that the all-time leaders in OPS are, almost certainly, the five best hitters in baseball history: Babe Ruth, Ted Williams, Lou Gehrig, Barry Bonds, and Jimmie Foxx. The active leader is Albert Pujols.

How Good is Drew?
Now that we have that out of the way, let us return to Mr. Drew. In 2009, Drew was second, to teammate Jason Bay, in OPS among American League outfielders. He was second in OBP. A fluke, you say? In 2008 he was third in OPS, and second in OBP. It is these numbers, along with his strong, and underrated, defense, that Theo is thinking of when he defends Drew. Not convinced? Then the this will really disturb you. Statisticians formulate what is called Adjusted OPS (OPS+), which normalizes the raw data for era, league, and ballpark factors; on this scale 100 is average. J.D. Drew has a career OPS+ of 129, which means that he is 29% more productive than the average player. Hall of Famer, and current NESN contributor, Jim Rice, had a career OPS+ of 128.

[Imperial59]

I think a lot of you guys are really blowing over the possibility that the offense takes a nose-dive here. You lose a guy like Bay, who was your biggest power threat and was your second best hitter by far and add in a 38 yr old CFer and a 3B who is coming off an injury plagued season that was absolutely and totally putrid.

:rolleyes:

Jacko, you're like a broken record. All you've done all year is bash the Red Sox offense. Give it up already. You've brought up the offense plenty of times already and we've discussed it to the point of exhaustion.


They have taken a pretty significant step back offensively.


Melky is the man, I am so glad we didnt deal him for Cameron


If I was a sox fan, I would hate that lineup as is.

#1- its a major dropoff from 2009, but we have been over that ad nauseum.


You'd see a lot of this...

Drew takes 7 pitches and walks
Cameron strikes out on 3 pitches
Kotchmann grounds to 1st
Scutaro pops up.


By the way, if this is truly it offensively, the sox will have taken a step back, especially if they cannot improve on Lowell. Losing Bay takes away their biggest long ball and RBI threat, leaving only Youkilis as a true middle of the order run producer.

So... how many times does a Yankees fan need to repeat the same criticism of the Red Sox for it to start to be seen as baiting? I could post a dozen more but I have to go to work.

[diony]

So... how many times does a Yankees fan need to repeat the same criticism of the Red Sox for it to start to be seen as baiting? I could post a dozen more but I have to go to work.

Just like when you criticized the Yankees bench so much :rolleyes:

[Emmz]

Just like when you criticized the Yankees bench so much :rolleyes:

How about providing examples?

[jacksonianmarch]

:rolleyes:

Jacko, you're like a broken record. All you've done all year is bash the Red Sox offense. Give it up already. You've brought up the offense plenty of times already and we've discussed it to the point of exhaustion.











So... how many times does a Yankees fan need to repeat the same criticism of the Red Sox for it to start to be seen as baiting? I could post a dozen more but I have to go to work.

Enjoy work, tying up clients seems to be a forte of yours. Must suck to be a male escort

[Plumpamania]

Enjoy work, tying up clients seems to be a forte of yours. Must suck to be a male escort

Trolling/flaming and being a jerk.

Just sayin Brah.

[Plumpamania]

Just like when you criticized the Yankees bench so much :rolleyes:

Red Sox fan site.

I'll bait you like you were a freakin sunny fish kiddo.

[Imperial59]

Just like when you criticized the Yankees bench so much :rolleyes:

I hope you aren't holding a grudge for pointing out how weak the Yankees bench was a month ago when they didn't have a single player with half a year's worth of major league experience.

[Imperial59]

Enjoy work, tying up clients seems to be a forte of yours. Must suck to be a male escort

Keeping it classy and staying on topic, per usual.

[Imperial59]

I like your top 4, but your #3 hitter really isnt a great #3 in terms of OPS

Ellsbury-Pedroia-VMart-Youkilis is still solid, even with VMart being a mid .800s OPS guy in a spot where a team like the sox should have a .900+ guy.

If it's an issue, the Sox could bat Drew there. He's been a .900+ OPS guy each of the last two years and he's enjoyed the most success over his career in that spot. Problem solved.

Drew was as good a hitter as Bay was last year anyways. There was only a .007 point difference in their OPS.

[VA Sox Fan]

Keeping it classy and staying on topic, per usual.

:lol::lol: jacko is an ass.

[Imperial59]

:lol::lol: jacko is an ass.

It's not just that he's rude to people on the forum, but he also believes that he's some kind of beacon of maturity that's above all the "tainted blood" posters on this forum.


the problem is that a lot of the level headed posters on this site have diminished their posting and we have the new tainted blood posting.

[VA Sox Fan]

It's not just that he's rude to people on the forum, but he also believes that he's some kind of beacon of maturity that's above all the "tainted blood" posters on this forum.

I know, I've "known" him since 2004. He's calmed down some but he's still a pompous ass.:lol:

[yeszir]

It's not just that he's rude to people on the forum, but he also believes that he's some kind of beacon of maturity that's above all the "tainted blood" posters on this forum.

Hey, guess what? Let's all move on. And why do you have 2 accounts?

[a700hitter]

Hey, guess what? Let's all move on. And why do you have 2 accounts?Huh... and I thought I was getting ganged up on the other day.

[jacksonianmarch]

Any chance we can get back to the posters who were actually good. What happened to this site? a700, good to see you back.

[Imperial59]

Hey, guess what? Let's all move on. And why do you have 2 accounts?

I tried to make an account called Imperial but I messed up the e-mail so I had to change it to Imperial59. I never actually used the other one.

[Plumpamania]

Any chance we can get back to the posters who were actually good. What happened to this site? a700, good to see you back.

I bet they'd come back if you left.

[jacksonianmarch]

actually plump, since you and Imp have been posting here, they've all gone away. I hope they come back when the season starts.

[Plumpamania]

Join Date: Jan 14 2005

Been here longer than you Jacko.

[Imperial59]

Ortiz is reportedly in great shape and his shoulder feels better. He hit 28 home runs last year, if he could get 35 or 40 next year, we'd be in great shape. I'm not counting on it though.

http://www.rotoworld.com/content/playerpages/player_main.aspx?sport=MLB&id=2494

[jacksonianmarch]

We shall see. He is still a massive questionmark coming into the season.

[Dipre]

We shall see. He is still a massive questionmark coming into the season.

:lol:

[Imperial59]

We shall see. He is still a massive questionmark coming into the season.

Is there a member of the Red Sox lineup who you don't believe is a question mark?

The way I see it, Ortiz can't do much worse than he did last year.

[Jacoby_Ellsbury]

Any chance we can get back to the posters who were actually good. What happened to this site? a700, good to see you back.
You leaving the board would be a massive help to this cause.

[jacksonianmarch]

Is there a member of the Red Sox lineup who you don't believe is a question mark?

The way I see it, Ortiz can't do much worse than he did last year.

Kevin Youkilis isnt a question mark. Pedroia isnt either

[Dipre]

Kevin Youkilis isnt a question mark. Pedroia isnt either

Why is Mike Cameron a question mark?

Why is JD Drew a question mark?

Why is Victor Martinez a question mark?

Why is Jacoby Ellsbury a question mark?

[jacksonianmarch]

VMart and Ellsbury arent either

Cameron is a question mark mostly due to his advanced age, but I do expect him to put up something close to his numbers

And JD Drew is always a question mark due to his propensity to develop random injuries.

[Red Foreman]

Ortiz is reportedly in great shape and his shoulder feels better. He hit 28 home runs last year, if he could get 35 or 40 next year, we'd be in great shape. I'm not counting on it though.

http://www.rotoworld.com/content/playerpages/player_main.aspx?sport=MLB&id=2494


Heard Terry on XM MLB, Papi is down 15 pounds, maybe he'll get some added bat speed combined with a heathier wrist to make better contact and widen his zone a bit. Even if he suffers some power loss from the second half of '09 he could still manage similar HR totals with a considerably higher average.

[Dipre]

VMart and Ellsbury arent either

Cameron is a question mark mostly due to his advanced age, but I do expect him to put up something close to his numbers

And JD Drew is always a question mark due to his propensity to develop random injuries.

Posada is not a question mark. Therefore, Cameron, who has shown no signs of injury or decline, is not a question mark. That's stretching to the millionth degree.

JD Drew is JD Drew, he'll lose games, but put up numbers when he's healthy, and he hasn't shown any sign of a major injury that will break that trend. Stretching.

[Red Foreman]

VMart and Ellsbury arent either

Cameron is a question mark mostly due to his advanced age, but I do expect him to put up something close to his numbers

And JD Drew is always a question mark due to his propensity to develop random injuries.

I don't think Drew is a question mark, unless you are expecting a 162 game season out of him he shouldn't be a question mark if he does play 162, it is a good thing. I agree about Cameron's age but he'd have to fall a cliff to be considered a question mark. His past three years suggest no drop off so far and as you say yourself, you expect him to put up close to his numbers so why question him?

*puncuation correction

[Dipre]

Mike Cameron's average year:

.250 /.340 /.448 .788 OPS

Mike Cameron's last two years:

.243 /.331 /.477 .809 OPS

.250 /.342 /.452 .795 OPS

[Imperial59]

Kevin Youkilis isnt a question mark. Pedroia isnt either

:lol::lol::lol:

I hope you were being sarcastic. Because if you actually believe that only two members of the Red aren't question marks then you're the most biased member of the site. That you only named 2 out of 9 members of the Red Sox lineup is players who aren't question marks is HILARIOUS. That's the most biased post I've ever seen on this shite.

[Imperial59]

Cameron is a question mark mostly due to his advanced age

The double standard here is embarrassing. Rivera, Pettitte and Posada are all older than Cameron, yet you've never maid a single claim that they'd regress. Can you say...hypocrisy?

[jacksonianmarch]

I never said that their age wasnt a concern.

[Dipre]

I never said that their age wasnt a concern.

So you admit that Posada, Jeter, Rivera and Petitte are all question marks? Because in the case of Rivera and Jeter, that's not very smart, even if you are trying to backpedal from a biased opinion.

[jacksonianmarch]

Cameron is a question mark mostly due to his advanced age, but I do expect him to put up something close to his numbers

Above is EXACTLY what I said. Pulling out pieces of a quote is an Imp specialty. I expect Cameron to put up numbers similar to his career norms. His age is a concern. Same with Jeter, Posada, Pettitte, Mo, etc. I expect them to put up numbers similar to career norms, but their age is a concern

[Dipre]

Cameron is a question mark mostly due to his advanced age, but I do expect him to put up something close to his numbers

Above is EXACTLY what I said. Pulling out pieces of a quote is an Imp specialty. I expect Cameron to put up numbers similar to his career norms. His age is a concern. Same with Jeter, Posada, Pettitte, Mo, etc. I expect them to put up numbers similar to career norms, but their age is a concern

This makes absolutely no sense.

If you expect them to perform to their career averages and not miss significant time (which you haven't specified) then age really isn't a concern. It would be if you expected them to perform below career averages or miss significant time. You said something dumb. Man up, and let it go, don't dig a deeper hole.

[jacksonianmarch]

You said it correctly, its all about their health. If they stay healthy, then I think they should put up similar numbers to their norms. But as these guys age, it typically becomes more difficult to go through the grind of 162. If these guys don't get any sort of nagging injury or significant DL stay injury then they should be fine. But it is much harder to guarantee that when they get into their late 30s.

[Plumpamania]

Then you're concerned about: Jeter, Rodriguez, Posada, Pettite's health?

If so I'd take Cameron's concerns mildly compared to the number of players in their late 30's.

[Dipre]

You said it correctly, its all about their health. If they stay healthy, then I think they should put up similar numbers to their norms. But as these guys age, it typically becomes more difficult to go through the grind of 162. If these guys don't get any sort of nagging injury or significant DL stay injury then they should be fine. But it is much harder to guarantee that when they get into their late 30s.

Fair enough.

[Imperial59]

Why is Mike Cameron a question mark?

Because he plays for the Red Sox.

Why is JD Drew a question mark?

Why is Victor Martinez a question mark?

Why is Jacoby Ellsbury a question mark?

Because they play for the Red Sox. Duh!

[Imperial59]

You said it correctly, its all about their health. If they stay healthy, then I think they should put up similar numbers to their norms. But as these guys age, it typically becomes more difficult to go through the grind of 162. If these guys don't get any sort of nagging injury or significant DL stay injury then they should be fine. But it is much harder to guarantee that when they get into their late 30s.

Are you at all concerned about the amount of older players that the Yankees have playing crucial roles on the team?

[Dipre]

Are you at all concerned about the amount of older players that the Yankees have playing crucial roles on the team?

Let's assume he is. If he backpedals later, he knows he's going to get called out on it.

[das11209]

I have been extremely critical of the offense of past year. The third place in run scored was so skewed by running score on bad teams - the bats did not do much against good pitching.

This year even after loosing Bay - I am more optimistic on offence. I think that we do not have one player any more that needs to carry the offence - but collectively they just should hit better. Moving Ells to left should help his bat. There are two factors that will determine the performance of offence. Can Tito resist playing Tek than he absolutely have to? Can Papi bounce back after having an inconsistant year ( contracft year + better shape + healed wrist)?

The rotation and defense has improved - but bullpen has lost a step. Overall - I like this team better - they have better balance. I think with Theo's bridge comment and all - it is clear that this is a transition team before payroll can get big contracts out and we get better free agent class. In light of that - I am OK with this team.

But this team is not a championship team - neither are they catching MFY. Wild card will be a realistic goal in my opinion.

They really need to do something abot Lowell before spring training.

[TheMino007]

I agree with this mostly. I don't think the team has regressed/improved greatly in either direction, I think the Sox are really not that much better off than they were last year. Teams like the Angels have gotten worse, the NL Central still sucks, and teams like the Mariners and Rays have gotten better but aren't as good as the Red Sox. In a 7 game series you have a shot at the Yankees but over the course of a 162 game season they are 7+ games better than the Sox. The AL East race won't even be close really. The problem with the Sox last year was the offense and a iffy backend of the rotation. The pitching improved, but the offense hasn't. Its gotten worse. Throw all the metric BS you want, losing Bay and adding Cameron doesn't make this team better. Scutaro will make a minimal difference because the guy is just a mediocre player coming off a career year. Beltre is a push at best with Lowell.

[Dipre]

I agree with this mostly. I don't think the team has regressed/improved greatly in either direction, I think the Sox are really not that much better off than they were last year. Teams like the Angels have gotten worse, the NL Central still sucks, and teams like the Mariners and Rays have gotten better but aren't as good as the Red Sox. In a 7 game series you have a shot at the Yankees but over the course of a 162 game season they are 7+ games better than the Sox. The AL East race won't even be close really. The problem with the Sox last year was the offense and a iffy backend of the rotation. The pitching improved, but the offense hasn't. Its gotten worse. Throw all the metric BS you want, losing Bay and adding Cameron doesn't make this team better. Scutaro will make a minimal difference because the guy is just a mediocre player coming off a career year. Beltre is a push at best with Lowell.

Opinions are like asses. Everybody has one. That is why we use metrics instead of subjective opinion. That is all.

[Keeper]

In a 7 game series you have a shot at the Yankees but over the course of a 162 game season they are 7+ games better than the Sox. The AL East race won't even be close really.

A full season of Lackey, Dice-K, Buchholz, Scutaro (who I believe will be around league average), and V-Mart closes the gap significantly. Pitching and defense. The Sox have both in spades. And while you may not be sold on the offense, I think you'll be pleasantly surprised with the production from the bottom of the order.

[Dipre]

A full season of Lackey, Dice-K, Buchholz, Scutaro (who I believe will be around league average), and V-Mart closes the gap significantly. Pitching and defense. The Sox have both in spades. And while you may not be sold on the offense, I think you'll be pleasantly surprised with the production from the bottom of the order.

Not only that, but this team's real offensive problem last year was inconsistency on the road.

They brought in three guys who all outperform their career averages by a significant margin on the road.

[TheMino007]

What guys? Cameron will make the team deeper, but he isn't the impact bat we needed. Scutaro, like I said, really a non-difference maker. The only guy that does better on the road is Beltre, but that is b/c he played in pitchers parks, LA and Safeco field. Outside of Fenway Park this team struggles offensively. We had V-Mart in the playoffs last year and how many games did we win with him catching? None. Over the course of a full season we will get more production out of the Catcher position thats for sure, but one guy can't do it all. V-Mart will put up .300/.380/25 homers/100 RBI but he isn't the middle order slugger we need.

Agree, the pitching and defense has improved, but that bullpen is questionable and our starters have a lot of health concerns. Beckett gets hurt every year come playoff time, Lackey has been declining in innings the last two years and had some injury issues to start last year, Dice-K- who the hell knows. How will Clay pan out this year? Its the best rotation in baseball on paper, but through the course of the year problems and injuries could arise, and for a team built on pitching and defense, if you don't have the pitching, your screwed.

[Dipre]

What guys? Cameron will make the team deeper, but he isn't the impact bat we needed. Scutaro, like I said, really a non-difference maker. The only guy that does better on the road is Beltre, but that is b/c he played in pitchers parks, LA and Safeco field. Outside of Fenway Park this team struggles offensively. We had V-Mart in the playoffs last year and how many games did we win with him catching? None. Over the course of a full season we will get more production out of the Catcher position thats for sure, but one guy can't do it all. V-Mart will put up .300/.380/25 homers/100 RBI but he isn't the middle order slugger we need.

Agree, the pitching and defense has improved, but that bullpen is questionable and our starters have a lot of health concerns. Beckett gets hurt every year come playoff time, Lackey has been declining in innings the last two years and had some injury issues to start last year, Dice-K- who the hell knows. How will Clay pan out this year? Its the best rotation in baseball on paper, but through the course of the year problems and injuries could arise, and for a team built on pitching and defense, if you don't have the pitching, your screwed.

Mike Cameron career splits:

Home: .762 OPS

Road: .812 OPS.

Adrian Beltre career splits:

Home: .727 OPS

Road: .826 OPS

Marco Scutaro career splits:

Home: .717

Away: .725.

All perform better on the road, according to their career stats,stadiums are not of consequence, since problems with them only helps reflect a player's true offensive value, not diminish it, and Scutaro, even at his career averages, is a massive improvement offensively over the suckfest we had at SS last year. It's ok to bitch and whine, but do so with substance.

This team's offensive problem was consistency, the lineup was full of holes (Varitek, Green, Bay at times, Ortiz at times), and the lineup as a whole should be more consistent next year.

Also, banking on injuries to support your argument is intellectually dishonest.

[Dojji]

Also, we're taking Mike Lowell out of the lineup, and as much as he's been a credit to us for most of his Red Sox career, Lowell has always been a terrible road hitter

[Dipre]

Also, we're taking Mike Lowell out of the lineup, and as much as he's been a credit to us for most of his Red Sox career, Lowell has always been a terrible road hitter

Has and hasn't. Lowell has carried an interesting trend:

2006:

Home:. 763

Road: .866

2007:

Home: .993.

Road: .767

2008:

Home: .766

Road: .823

2009:

Home: .932

Road: .713

Go figure.

[yankees228]

Mike Cameron career splits:

Home: .762 OPS

Road: .812 OPS.

Adrian Beltre career splits:

Home: .727 OPS

Road: .826 OPS

Marco Scutaro career splits:

Home: .717

Away: .725.

All perform better on the road, according to their career stats,stadiums are not of consequence, since problems with them only helps reflect a player's true offensive value, not diminish it, and Scutaro, even at his career averages, is a massive improvement offensively over the suckfest we had at SS last year. It's ok to bitch and whine, but do so with substance.

This team's offensive problem was consistency, the lineup was full of holes (Varitek, Green, Bay at times, Ortiz at times), and the lineup as a whole should be more consistent next year.

Also, banking on injuries to support your argument is intellectually dishonest.

Haven't you and Imperial focused on potential injuries when discussing the downside of the 2010 Yankees' roster?

[Dipre]

Haven't you and Imperial focused on potential injuries when discussing the downside of the 2010 Yankees' roster?

Haven't i been comparing the "Question mark" status of certain players on both teams?

Because, if i recall correctly, my argument has always been that if "Dice-K is a question mark, Burnett is a question mark as well". I never initiated any conversation about expecting any Yankee player to be injured for any significant period of time during 2010. Not even Nick Johnsonn. who i have repeatedly said should be healthier manning the DH spot.

I like you, but don't put words in my mouth.

[yankees228]

Haven't i been comparing the "Question mark" status of certain players on both teams?

Because, if i recall correctly, my argument has always been that if "Dice-K is a question mark, Burnett is a question mark as well". I never initiated any conversation about expecting any Yankee player to be injured for any significant period of time during 2010. Not even Nick Johnsonn. who i have repeatedly said should be healthier manning the DH spot.

I like you, but don't put words in my mouth.

The funny thing about this site, at times, is that people just assume that someone else is taking a shot at them. I asked you if that's what you guys had done, nothing more.

Also, to me, Daisuke is more of a question mark than Burnett because Burnett was completely healthy the last two years, while Daisuke is coming off a season where he missed a great deal of time.

I understand that you were only using that as an example, in an attempt to show your conversational approach. Now that I'm clear on that, I was simply commenting on the example.

[Dipre]

The funny thing about this site, at times, is that people just assume that someone else is taking a shot at them. I asked you if that's what you guys had done, nothing more.

Also, to me, Daisuke is more of a question mark than Burnett because Burnett was completely healthy the last two years, while Daisuke is coming off a season where he missed a great deal of time.

I understand that you were only using that as an example, in an attempt to show your conversational approach. Now that I'm clear on that, I was simply commenting on the example.

It's the internet. I can't see your facial expressions, and the way you wrote the sentence made it sound like a condescending call-out when read out loud:


Haven't you and Imperial focused on potential injuries when discussing the downside of the 2010 Yankees' roster?

Doesn't seem like an honest question, but a call-out.

If you feel Dice-K is more of a question mark, i don't have a problem, but putting the importance of each pitcher to their respective rotation (Burnett #2, Dice-K #4) and the confounders surrounding Dice-K's freakish 2009 as well as Burnett's extensive injury history, i'd say he's a better bet to miss time. But notice the word "bet" because you really can't predict injuries, just like you can't predict age-related decline, which is mostly what i've been calling out Jacko on anyway.

[Imperial59]

Haven't you and Imperial focused on potential injuries when discussing the downside of the 2010 Yankees' roster?

I think it's safe to say that it's a downside of both rosters with guys like Burnett, Johnson, Posada, Matsuzaka, Drew and Beltre on both teams. But I think Burnett and Johnson are probably the largest injury liabilities on either roster given their past histories (11 DL visits since 2000, playing more than 133 games once in his career).

[jacksonianmarch]

So wait, Burnett is more of a concern than DiceK, really? And you call me biased

[Dipre]

So wait, Burnett is more of a concern than DiceK, really? And you call me biased

Nice save-face attempt.

If you'll noticed, i mentioned each one's importance to their respective rotations as a reason (which is coherent except if you lack a functioning brain), and also, i mentioned "Miss time" not "Miss significant time", because of two reasons:

A) Burnett's significant injury history.

B ) The Sox will probably be handling Dice-K with the kid gloves, which they can, because he's the 4th, not the 2nd starter.

And yes, i call you biased, because you are, without a shadow of a doubt, extremely biased.

[jacksonianmarch]

I wasnt responding to you Dipre. That being said, I find it absolutely hilarious that people are considering DiceK more of a lock to stay healthy than Burnett. Hilarious. Burnett had TJS. He's been healthy for 2 yrs straight. DiceK cannot stay off the DL. Big difference.

[Dipre]

I wasnt responding to you Dipre. That being said, I find it absolutely hilarious that people are considering DiceK more of a lock to stay healthy than Burnett. Hilarious. Burnett had TJS. He's been healthy for 2 yrs straight. DiceK cannot stay off the DL. Big difference.

Actually no.

Again, i'm thinking the kid gloves factor and working in Wakefield to make spot starts will keep him healthy.

I'll go ahead and say neither of them misses any time.

Oh, and you're "He cannot stay off the DL" statement. Now that is hilariously biased.

Carry on.

[Spudboy]

I wasnt responding to you Dipre. That being said, I find it absolutely hilarious that people are considering DiceK more of a lock to stay healthy than Burnett. Hilarious. Burnett had TJS. He's been healthy for 2 yrs straight. DiceK cannot stay off the DL. Big difference.

Care to expand on this statement?

[Dipre]

Three years, two injuries, one of them caused by a stupid decision by Dice-K and it wasn't major. :lol:

[jacksonianmarch]

It wasnt major, nope, he only missed nearly the entire season! My god, you're insane. I am sure you're expecting CY type numbers too and the sox are on point to win 130 games.

[Dipre]

It wasnt major, nope, he only missed nearly the entire season! My god, you're insane. I am sure you're expecting CY type numbers too and the sox are on point to win 130 games.

*Yawn*

:rolleyes:

[Spudboy]

It wasnt major, nope, he only missed nearly the entire season! My god, you're insane. I am sure you're expecting CY type numbers too and the sox are on point to win 130 games.

Off topic here.

But Doc, what can you tell me about Winstrol? What are the clinical applications of the drug?
What precautions are there? Can it be used to aid in weight loss in individuals with a thyroid condition?

Thanks.

[yankees228]

I apologize for the tone of the question. Reading it again, I understand how it could have been misconstrued.

[Dipre]

I apologize for the tone of the question. Reading it again, I understand how it could have been misconstrued.

It's all good, man. You know we like you here.

Stick around, take your shoes off, have a cookie (chocolate chip) and a glass of milk.

[Imperial59]

I wasnt responding to you Dipre. That being said, I find it absolutely hilarious that people are considering DiceK more of a lock to stay healthy than Burnett. Hilarious. Burnett had TJS. He's been healthy for 2 yrs straight. DiceK cannot stay off the DL. Big difference.

And I find it hilarious how you just called a guy who's been on the DL four times the last 9 years (two of them last year when he failed to disclose an injury from the WBC) someone who "cannot stay off the DL" and you referred to a guy who's been on the DL 11 times int he last 8 years the less injury prone of the two. Let's compare their injury histories:

Daisuke Matsuzaka
2002 - Elbow injury
2008 - Mild Rotator Cuff Strain
2009 - Mild Shoulder Strain? (MRI showed no damage)
2009 - Shoulder Strain? (MRI showed no damage)

AJ Burnett
2001 - Broken Right Foot
2002 - Right Elbow Injury
2003 - Right Elbow Inflamation
2003 - Right Elbow Inflamation
2004 - Tommy John Surgery
2005 - Elbow Injury
2006 - Elbow Injury
2006 - Elbow Injury
2007 - Shoulder Injury
2007 - Shoulder Injury

So, how exactly is it hilarious to think that Matsuzaka's more likely to stay healthy?

[jacksonianmarch]

How is his time with the Marlins relevant now, especially after 2 healthy yrs where he was very productive? And how do you expect to win an argument about health when the guy who is supposedly "healthy" made only 12 starts last yr?

[Dipre]

How is his time with the Marlins relevant now, especially after 2 healthy yrs where he was very productive? And how do you expect to win an argument about health when the guy who is supposedly "healthy" made only 12 starts last yr?

Says the guy who's been bitching about Drew's injury history. Interesting.

[VA Sox Fan]

I wasnt responding to you Dipre. That being said, I find it absolutely hilarious that people are considering DiceK more of a lock to stay healthy than Burnett. Hilarious. Burnett had TJS. He's been healthy for 2 yrs straight. DiceK cannot stay off the DL. Big difference.


Learn to use the quote option to avoid any future confusion Mr. Question Mark.

[Dipre]

Learn to use the quote option to avoid any future confusion Mr. Question Mark.

This post needs to be sigged. Pronto.

[Mr Crunchy]

How many more years does Burnett have in NY?
He sucks, a complete mental case whos more inclined to give up double digits in Fenway than anyone else since Carl Pavano left NY.

[Plumpamania]

I forget, how'd Burnett do in the playoffs?

[Dipre]

How many more years does Burnett have in NY?
He sucks, a complete mental case whos more inclined to give up double digits in Fenway than anyone else since Carl Pavano left NY.


I forget, how'd Burnett do in the playoffs?

How dare you!!!!

Burnett is GOD!!!!111!!!!

/endsarcasm.

[Imperial59]

How is his time with the Marlins relevant now, especially after 2 healthy yrs where he was very productive? And how do you expect to win an argument about health when the guy who is supposedly "healthy" made only 12 starts last yr?

Any way you slice it, Burnett has been injured A LOT over his career. Even in the last four years alone, he's been on the DL five times. And Matsuzaka over his career has been pretty healthy. If he wasn't a dumbass and disclosed his groin injury to the team last year, he likely would have pitched most of the year last year after he took some time off to heal it up. And if he didn't pitch in the WBC, he probably wouldn't have gotten hurt.

[Imperial59]

Says the guy who's been bitching about Drew's injury history. Interesting.

Woah, woah, woah. That's a completely different case.


Topic|Player Leaves|Team|Content
Prospect|Yankees|The player in question is made of 150% pure awesomeness. Fear us.
Prospect|Sox|He could be good, but this is why he won't be.
Signing|Yankees|This is the missing piece. We'll win 160 games, and the umps will screw us out of 2.
Signing|Sox|Risky move, overpaid here, they'll regret this.
Injury|Yankees|They don't get hurt. Hypothetically, if they did, the recovery will be speedy with no impact to ability.
Injury|Sox|Everyone is a ticking time bomb. Once hurt, they'll never heal right.
Player Leaves|Yankees|They are better off without him, he was hurt/too old/sucked
Player Leaves|Redsox|They are really gunna regret it, he wasnt all that hurt/hes still young/He has a lot left in the tank.

As you can clearly see, Burnett may have been on the DL 10 times since 2000, but he doesn't get hurt. And even a Red Sox player may has a track record of being healthy, they're a ticking time bomb.

Hope that clears up any confusion.

[Dipre]

Woah, woah, woah. That's a completely different case.

Hey, don't fuck with JD. :lol:

[Dojji]

Hey, don't fuck with JD. :lol:

Yeah, that's his wife's job. Or maybe Dipre's.

[Dipre]

Yeah, that's his wife's job. Or maybe Dipre's.

At least i'm getting some. Oh snap. The smug detector goes off yet again.

[Dojji]

:p

[Imperial59]

PECOTA has the Sox winning 94 games, scoring 808 runs and winning the AL East by 2 games.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/fantasy/dc/

[TheMino007]

Seems reasonable, except for the part about the Sox winning the AL East. I doubt the Yanks will only win 92 games, probably be closer to 102 and the Sox will be 8 back.

[yeszir]

Nate Silver says so, it must be true.

[jacksonianmarch]

All of these prediction sites are pretty inaccurate yr to yr. And every single prediction mod has something different. I'd go with the likelihood that both teams will be making the playoffs and the strong likelihood that NY is winning the East

[Imperial59]

All of these prediction sites are pretty inaccurate yr to yr. And every single prediction mod has something different. I'd go with the likelihood that both teams will be making the playoffs and the strong likelihood that NY is winning the East

Pretty much all big name projections have the two teams making the playoffs with nearly identical records. Should be a fun race this year.

[jacksonianmarch]

Pretty much all big name projections have the two teams making the playoffs with nearly identical records. Should be a fun race this year.

The race is always fun

[Imperial59]

The race is always fun

Do you think it will be a fun race or do you think the Yankees will be the far better team?

[Keeper]

Dude, give it a rest.

[Emmz]

Seems reasonable, except for the part about the Sox winning the AL East. I doubt the Yanks will only win 92 games, probably be closer to 102 and the Sox will be 8 back.

I think you need to reconsider. I don't think the Yankees are as sure to win the division as you think they are.

[Dipre]

The Yankees are the better team on paper, but it's a long season, and injury, inefectiveness and surprise performances always impact this kind of races.

However, seeing as the Yankees won 100+ last year and actually got a bit better, Jacko has every right to firmly believe they will repeat for the division.

That being said, any Sox fan who feels that the Sox are primed for a hostile takeover is also justified in thinking that, seeing that the Yankees, like every other Major League team, have many question marks, and it only takes one break to change the outcome of a division.

[a700hitter]

Anything can happen. That's why they play the games, but the Yanks are huge favorites to repeat. I think they will sorely miss Damon, and that should impact their run production, but they have plenty of big sticks.

[TheMino007]

The Yankees offense will carry them through the regular season, however in a short playoff series, with their lack of pitching depth, they could find themselves in trouble. In a 7 game series I think its fair to say with the current roster the Sox would have a 50/50 shot at beating the Yanks. But the Yanks will win the AL East.

[a700hitter]

The Yankees lack of pitching depth? Sabathia, Burnett, Pettitte, and Vasquez. That's pretty good depth.

[TheMino007]

Burnett isn't worth what he is being paid, and really isn't a reliable number two, Pettitte will fall off from last year, and Vasquez sucks in the AL, big time, he's a NL pitcher. One reliable pitcher heading into the playoffs, we have 3.

[jacksonianmarch]

How's the Kool-Aid? They won a WS with 3 of the above pitchers exclusively starting and they beat your new addition to make it to the WS.