Why the obsession with A-Gon? Considering other alternatives...

[Palodios]

I keep looking at the rumors going around today, and I'm really not liking where the adrian gonzalez situation is going.

Let's consider the facts. He's an all-star player on a low budget team, making roughly 11 million dollars in the next two years. Sure that's a bit chunk of their budget, but at the same time big stars are profitable and sell tickets. Jed Hoyer knows the Sox farm system, and we can't pawn off average prospects on him like lowrie, bowden, etc. By the sound of it, they want Buch and Ellsbury, which weakens the rotation and leaves us looking at another hole in the outfield.

Trading Ellsbury isn't the answer. San Diego has no reason to trade A-gon unless we overpay- he's worth every penny there for the amount of fans he puts into the seats.

So I say, we need to move on, look at other options. Because of Youkilis and VMart, the team is very flexible, and can find a big bat in either 1st base, 3rd base.... and catcher.

I'm just throwing some uninformed babble out there, but I want to talk about the twins. They have two incredible bats in Mauer and Morneau, and while who wouldn't want to keep them, let's look at the money. Between those two players, they are making 1/3 of the team's salary. That's a ton of money. Morneau has a few years left on his contract, although how is he any less viable than Miguel Cabrera?

Mauer however, is the big deal. He's putting up hall of fame numbers every year. The twins have only one year left on him, and its unlikely that they'll be able to give him the ARod-sized contract that he's clearly worth. Unless they have an incredible season and think they'll need him for the playoffs, odds are that he will be traded by the deadline.


What about talking with the angels? They're coming off some tough loses with Lackey and Figgens gone, maybe if they start thinking "rebuilding year" they might be willing to trade some players for mid-level sox prospects in part of a 3 team deal.

My point is, Theo isn't going to trade CK, CB, JE, or any ridiculous package for A-gon, and we need to stop listening to the silly rumors going around. There are quite a few great players out there.What other alternatives are there?

[Dipre]

In all fairness, since you're stating that there are suitable alternatives, couldn't you provide us with some yourself?

[jacksonianmarch]

My guess is that the most suitable alternative is to wait a yr and go after Mauer or deal for AdGon then since he'd probably come a bit cheaper

[Dipre]

My guess is that the most suitable alternative is to wait a yr and go after Mauer or deal for AdGon then since he'd probably come a bit cheaper

Waiting on Mauer doesn't seem like such a good idea. All signs (New stadium, him being the franchise player) point to his staying in Minnesota.

Also, how is waiting a year to trade for A-Gon a suitable alternative to trading for A-Gon?

[jacksonianmarch]

the price comes down and your prospects' stock could get higher

[Emmz]

He will stay in Minnesota. The Twins will give him a massive contract, I guarantee this.

[Dipre]

the price comes down and your prospects' stock could get higher

Yes, i know that, but it's still trading for the same player. When you speak of suitable alternatives to fix a problem, you're talking about a solution different than the one stated in the first place.

[Emmz]

the price comes down and your prospects' stock could get higher

The prospects' stock could go down, as well. I don't think the answer is to trade Ellsbury with Buchholz, but rather to trade Buchholz with a few other prospects as well. Kelly, Westy, etc.

[jacksonianmarch]

It is an option because it doesnt open up as many holes in the trade. I get your point, but it would be prudent for the sox to hold back a season if they think the price is too high

[Red Foreman]

I keep looking at the rumors going around today, and I'm really not liking where the adrian gonzalez situation is going.

Let's consider the facts. He's an all-star player on a low budget team, making roughly 11 million dollars in the next two years. Sure that's a bit chunk of their budget, but at the same time big stars are profitable and sell tickets. Jed Hoyer knows the Sox farm system, and we can't pawn off average prospects on him like lowrie, bowden, etc. By the sound of it, they want Buch and Ellsbury, which weakens the rotation and leaves us looking at another hole in the outfield.

Trading Ellsbury isn't the answer. San Diego has no reason to trade A-gon unless we overpay- he's worth every penny there for the amount of fans he puts into the seats.

So I say, we need to move on, look at other options. Because of Youkilis and VMart, the team is very flexible, and can find a big bat in either 1st base, 3rd base.... and catcher.

I'm just throwing some uninformed babble out there, but I want to talk about the twins. They have two incredible bats in Mauer and Morneau, and while who wouldn't want to keep them, let's look at the money. Between those two players, they are making 1/3 of the team's salary. That's a ton of money. Morneau has a few years left on his contract, although how is he any less viable than Miguel Cabrera?

Mauer however, is the big deal. He's putting up hall of fame numbers every year. The twins have only one year left on him, and its unlikely that they'll be able to give him the ARod-sized contract that he's clearly worth. Unless they have an incredible season and think they'll need him for the playoffs, odds are that he will be traded by the deadline.


What about talking with the angels? They're coming off some tough loses with Lackey and Figgens gone, maybe if they start thinking "rebuilding year" they might be willing to trade some players for mid-level sox prospects in part of a 3 team deal.

My point is, Theo isn't going to trade CK, CB, JE, or any ridiculous package for A-gon, and we need to stop listening to the silly rumors going around. There are quite a few great players out there.What other alternatives are there?


From SD's standpoint, they have to play a 300 pounder (Blanks) in the outfield just to get him in the line up while they wait for 1B to open up.

[Dipre]

It is an option because it doesnt open up as many holes in the trade. I get your point, but it would be prudent for the sox to hold back a season if they think the price is too high

This is sensible, however, i believe mid-season to be the more likely scenario.

[Rdsxmbnt]

Clay + Ellsbury for Hanley

But really I'd rather we don't waste our valuable chips on a 1B since they are a dime a dozen

[Dipre]

Clay + Ellsbury for Hanley

But really I'd rather we don't waste our valuable chips on a 1B since they are a dime a dozen

Give me three more productive 1B than Adrian Gonzales or Miguel Cabrera.

[THE ARS]

Mark Texeira.

Albert Pujols.

Ryan Howard.

Prince Fielder.


Tom

[jacksonianmarch]

There are a few guys who fit inbetween the two. Gonzalez has had one really good yr, and that was 2009. Cabrera has been a top hitter for yrs

[Rdsxmbnt]

Pujols, Fielder, Youkillis, Howard, Tex are all definitely up to par along with Berkman, Helton, Lee, Morales, and Votto.

That's nine names of very productive 1B, add Cabrera and Gonzalez and that's 11.

Even if you don't need the superstar at the position, 17 guys posted OPSs over .850.

There are FAR fewer SS/C/CF out there so if we are going to trade someone like Ellsbury or Buchholz it should be for Hanley/Tulo/Zimmerman type.

[jacksonianmarch]

How about Teixeira

[Jasonbay44]

Mark Texeira.

Albert Pujols.

Ryan Howard.

Prince Fielder.


Tom

I wouldn't say Tex and Fielder are better then Miggy, their career OPS, OBP and slg% is almost identical, if anything, those guys are as good, but I wouldn't say their better.

[Coco's Disciples]

Mark Texeira.

Albert Pujols.

Ryan Howard.

Prince Fielder.


Tom

Disagree on Howard. You could make an argument for either Teixeira or Gonzalez. Pujols is a given. Fielder, probably.

Tom is not better than Gonzalez.

[Dipre]

Pujols, Fielder, Youkillis, Howard are all definitely up to par along with Berkman, Helton, Lee, Morales, and Votto.

That's nine names of very productive 1B, add Cabrera and Gonzalez and that's 11.

Even if you don't need the superstar at the position, 17 guys posted OPSs over .850.

There are FAR fewer SS/C/CF out there so if we are going to trade someone like Ellsbury or Buchholz it should be for Hanley/Tulo/Zimmerman type.

I asked for "More productive" first basemen, on both offense and defense.

The only 1B that was clearly more productive than Gonzales and Cabrera last season was Albert Pujols.

[Coco's Disciples]

There are FAR fewer SS/C/CF out there so if we are going to trade someone like Ellsbury or Buchholz it should be for Hanley/Tulo/Zimmerman type.

None of whom are available.

[jacksonianmarch]

You are talking one season and you are talking two players who are pretty far apart in ability. As good as Gonzo was for 2009, Cabrera is light yrs ahead of him in ability and reputation IMO.

[Dipre]

You are talking one season and you are talking two players who are pretty far apart in ability. As good as Gonzo was for 2009, Cabrera is light yrs ahead of him in ability and reputation IMO.

Four seasons with an OPS+ of over 125 while hitting in the Padres' lineup.

[Red Foreman]

Pujols, Fielder, Youkillis, Howard, Tex are all definitely up to par along with Berkman, Helton, Lee, Morales, and Votto.

That's nine names of very productive 1B, add Cabrera and Gonzalez and that's 11.

Even if you don't need the superstar at the position, 17 guys posted OPSs over .850.

There are FAR fewer SS/C/CF out there so if we are going to trade someone like Ellsbury or Buchholz it should be for Hanley/Tulo/Zimmerman type.

I'm all for Zimmerman but he isn't a SS/C/CF type, he's a 3B.

[Rdsxmbnt]

None of whom are available.

That's my point, the players we should be targeting in aren't available, so here's an idea: don't do anything, or at least something to the level of using all your chips on a 1B.

[Dipre]

That's my point, the players we should be targeting in aren't available, so here's an idea: don't do anything, or at least something to the level of using all your chips on a 1B.

I don't think the position matters when we're talking about a player who's capable of putting up a near 1.000 OPS, but i see where you're coming from.

[jacksonianmarch]

.865, .849, .871, .948. Three of those are above average for 1b's. The last one is stellar.

[jacksonianmarch]

I don't think the position matters when we're talking about a player who's capable of putting up a near 1.000 OPS, but i see where you're coming from.

I wouldnt put him in the near 1.000OPS category since he was 42 points away from 1.000 in his best season

[Dipre]

.865, .849, .871, .948. Three of those are above average for 1b's. The last one is stellar.

Petco Park.

That's why you use OPS+. It negates park factors.

Also, away OPS on those four seasons:

06: 905

07:.928

08:.946

09:.1.045 (!)

[Rdsxmbnt]

I think we can all agree Gonzalez is definitely in the upper tier of 1B...there just happens to be A LOT of company with him.

IMO it's not a wise investment to trade someone like Buchholz or Ellsbury for a 1B unless he is other-worldly like Pujols.

[Dipre]

I think we can all agree Gonzalez is definitely in the upper tier of 1B...there just happens to be A LOT of company with him.

IMO it's not a wise investment to trade someone like Buchholz or Ellsbury for a 1B unless he is other-worldly like Pujols.

My point is that if you take him out of that hellhole in Petco he could probably be a complete and utter monster.

He hit 21 opposite-field home runs last year, imagine that opposite-field power matched up with the Green Monster.......

[redsoxrules]

If Theo dosent get Bay or Holliday , witch its looking that way ( Cameron sigining ) , we NEED A-Gon

[SoxSport]

The prospects' stock could go down, as well. I don't think the answer is to trade Ellsbury with Buchholz, but rather to trade Buchholz with a few other prospects as well. Kelly, Westy, etc.

I agree it's preferred to trade Buchholz rather than Ellsbury. They are pretty thin in the outfield and stronger in pitching. I wouldn't rely on Cameron for a whole season in CF at his age--and besides, Ellsbury still has upside and is their speed in the lineup. He's a dynamic player.

So what's going on inside Epstein's head? My guess is he won't trade Ellsbury, might trade Buchholz for AdGon, might sign Beltre if the price is right, might sign Nick Johnson if Beltre is too expensive.

[Dipre]

I agree it's preferred to trade Buchholz rather than Ellsbury. They are pretty thin in the outfield and stronger in pitching. I wouldn't rely on Cameron for a whole season in CF at his age--and besides, Ellsbury still has upside and is their speed in the lineup. He's a dynamic player.

So what's going on inside Epstein's head? My guess is he won't trade Ellsbury, might trade Buchholz for AdGon, might sign Beltre if the price is right, might sign Nick Johnson if Beltre is too expensive.

Nick Johnson's in negotiations with the Yankees, no chance there. :lol:

[THE ARS]

Disagree on Howard. You could make an argument for either Teixeira or Gonzalez. Pujols is a given. Fielder, probably.

Tom is not better than Gonzalez.

Tom is not better than Adrian Gonzalez NOW.

Let's give him some time to grow into the role.

Now, Ryan Howard doesn't produce runs like these other fuckers named? Come on.

Four full years, three RBI titles and two HR titles. That is a bad dude.


Tom

[Emmz]

Now, Ryan Howard doesn't produce runs like these other fuckers named? Come on.

Four full years, three RBI titles and two HR titles. That is a bad dude.

Did you really just say Howard is better than Pujols? Wait, what? I hope that's not what you said, because Pujols has had a 1.000+ OPS every year but his first year (I consider .997 to be 1.000, tbh).

Also, using RBI and HR as a measure of ability probably isn't the best way, OPS, OBP, etc, etc are much better stats for this.

[THE ARS]

I feel comfortable with my assumption.

Tom will be one of the best ball players ever, mark my words. Tom measures in yards, not feet, because he just hits the ball that far.

And, yes, brother, I do consider RBI the measure of a productive player. You hit in the four hole that is your job.

You are not there to walk, you are not there to advance runners.

You get paid the big money to drive in runs.

That's it. That's your job description.

Tom

[Dipre]

I feel comfortable with my assumption.

Tom will be one of the best ball players ever, mark my words. Tom measures in yards, not feet, because he just hits the ball that far.

And, yes, brother, I do consider RBI the measure of a productive player. You hit in the four hole that is your job.

You are not there to walk, you are not there to advance runners.

You get paid the big money to drive in runs.

That's it. That's your job description.

Tom

Actually, my good friend, a good cleanup hitter can both drive in runs and not make an excessive amount of outs.

Examples of this:

Pujols (Even though he hits from the 3-spot).

Cabrera.

Gonzales.

Teixeira.

Fielder.

[THE ARS]

You missed Manny. Better hitter than anyone you mention here, none have even come close to his 165 RBI in 140 games.

Funny how that works.

Tom

[Dipre]

You missed Manny. Better hitter than anyone you mention here, none have even come close to his 165 RBI in 140 games.

Funny how that works.

Tom

I was going for First basemen. :lol:

[Emmz]

I feel comfortable with my assumption.

Tom will be one of the best ball players ever, mark my words. Tom measures in yards, not feet, because he just hits the ball that far.

And, yes, sister, I do consider RBI the measure of a productive player. You hit in the four hole that is your job.

You are not there to walk, you are not there to advance runners.

You get paid the big money to drive in runs.

That's it. That's your job description.

Tom

Fixed.

The RBI is not the measure of a productive player. It's the measure of someone who has guys before him who get on base, and then he hits the jack, or drives in the run. Let's face it, if Pujols had the guys that Howard had, he'd have drove in many more runs, because he's the best there is at not getting out. Not to mention, he has just as much power as Howard does.

Howard's highest OPS is 1.084, a stat that Pujols has bettered 4 times in his career. Howard's had ONE season with an OPS above 1.000, Pujols has only gone under that, technically, twice. And one of those seasons (2007) it was .997, and the other was in his rookie season.

Not to mention, he plays in Phillie, a very hitter-friendly park indeed.

[Emmz]

You missed Manny. Better hitter than anyone you mention here, none have even come close to his 165 RBI in 140 games.

Funny how that works.

Tom

RBI is the least effective way of judging someone's ability to produce runs... It's a testament to the hitters in front of the said hitter.

[Dojji]

I'm not sure I believe that entirely, but RBI definitely does have a number of team-related confounding variables. It certainly shouldn't be looked at as a predictive indicator.

[Dipre]

I'm not sure I believe that entirely, but RBI definitely does have a number of team-related confounding variables. It certainly shouldn't be looked at as a predictive indicator.

RBI, like BA, should be used mainly as support stats. They hold no value by themselves, at least in my opinion.

[Dojji]

Certainly less than slash stats, offensive WAR, RC/27 or OPS+

[yankees228]

RBI is the least effective way of judging someone's ability to produce runs... It's a testament to the hitters in front of the said hitter.

Certain situations do transcend this, though. If a hitter (Manny for example), drives in an unusually high numbers of runs, that goes beyond just the guys in front of him, and can be used as part of an argument. At the same time, if a guy hitting in a power position has an unusually low number of RBIs (and the hitters in front of him get on base), then it should also be mentioned in an argument.

I agree with Dipre though, RBIs are best used as a supporting component of an argument.

[Emmz]

RBI, like BA, should be used mainly as support stats. They hold no value by themselves, at least in my opinion.

Yes. I use BA only when someone has a high OBP as well usually. Like you said, definitely a support stat. I don't even see RBI as very useful as a support stat, especially for someone as one-dimensional as Ryan Howard. Atleast in my opinion.

[THE ARS]

I was going for First basemen. :lol:

Dig it, I missed that.


Tom

[Keeper]

The prevaling notion that BA and RBIs are completely useless stats is flat out wrong. I agree that OBP is certainly more important and that not making outs is the objective of hitting, but a team with a low BA generally won't score a lot of runs...

[Dipre]

The prevaling notion that BA and RBIs are completely useless stats is flat out wrong. I agree that OBP is certainly more important and that not making outs is the objective of hitting, but a team with a low BA generally won't score a lot of runs...

Scoring runs is more directly correlated with actually getting on base than scoring hits.

You take a walk, steal second, move to third on a groundout, score on a sac fly. The more you get on base, the more likely you are to score runs.

[Emmz]

The prevaling notion that BA and RBIs are completely useless stats is flat out wrong. I agree that OBP is certainly more important and that not making outs is the objective of hitting, but a team with a low BA generally won't score a lot of runs...

Not if they have a high OBP, but yeah, generally you'd be right. Also, I don't think it's useless, but rather, I think it should be used as a support stat. I think we can all agree on that.

[THE ARS]

Fixed.

The RBI is not the measure of a productive player. It's the measure of someone who has guys before him who get on base, and then he hits the jack, or drives in the run. Let's face it, if Pujols had the guys that Howard had, he'd have drove in many more runs, because he's the best there is at not getting out. Not to mention, he has just as much power as Howard does.

Howard's highest OPS is 1.084, a stat that Pujols has bettered 4 times in his career. Howard's had ONE season with an OPS above 1.000, Pujols has only gone under that, technically, twice. And one of those seasons (2007) it was .997, and the other was in his rookie season.

Not to mention, he plays in Phillie, a very hitter-friendly park indeed.

Well, I don't care how many walks Albert Pujols can draw. I certainly wouldn't ask him to change his approach but I am not going to pay him $20M to walk 150 times.

But I'd pay him that to drive in 150.

You are on the wrong site, anyway.

THIS IS A NICE PLACE FOR GIRLS (http://www.eteamz.com/westvalleygirlssoftball/)

Tom

[Keeper]

Scoring runs is more directly correlated with actually getting on base than scoring hits.

You take a walk, steal second, move to third on a groundout, score on a sac fly. The more you get on base, the more likely you are to score runs.

As I said, I agree with this philosophy. But not every run is scored that way. If no one is hitting above .260 on your team, it's going to be a long season.

[Loretta2]

With both Bay and Holliday still available, what do you guys think the chances are that any deal including Ellsbury would lead to the Sox ALSO signing one of those two and playing Cameron in his natural CF?

Adding both AGon and Holliday would be IMMENSE for the middle of the Red Sox line-up.

Also, this is the only way I personally want Ellsbury involved in this trade.

[Emmz]

Well, I don't care how many walks Albert Pujols can draw. I certainly wouldn't ask him to change his approach but I am not going to pay him $20M to walk 150 times.

But I'd pay him that to drive in 150.

High OBP=more runs for the team. With Pujols, he has just as much power as Howard, contrary to what you've been saying, and gets on base to give his team a chance to drive in more runs. It's pretty simple, actually.


You are on the wrong site, anyway.

THIS IS A NICE PLACE FOR GIRLS (http://www.eteamz.com/westvalleygirlssoftball/)

Tom

Hmm? Sexist jokes? Nice. You're a class act. I'm done with this.

[Dipre]

Well, I don't care how many walks Albert Pujols can draw. I certainly wouldn't ask him to change his approach but I am not going to pay him $20M to walk 150 times.

But I'd pay him that to drive in 150.

You are on the wrong site, anyway.

THIS IS A NICE PLACE FOR GIRLS (http://www.eteamz.com/westvalleygirlssoftball/)

Tom

Albert Pujols:

OPS RBI Runs HR OBP

1.101 135 124 47 .443


Ryan Howard:

OPS RBI Runs HR OBP

.931 141 105 45 .360


As you can see, Pujols and Howard had similar offensive numbers, with Pujols holding a decided edge in OBP and Runs scored, these two, of course, go hand in hand, let's compare the overall "Hand" Pujols and Howard had in the runs scored by each of their teams:


135 RBI + 124 R= 259 Runs.


Howard:
141 RBI + 105 R= 246 Runs.


That's a thirteen run scored difference in production that derived directly from Pujol's ability to get on base more consistently while hitting in a vastly inferior lineup.

You sent the girl to the volleyball site, but i suggest you reconsider your position as to who visits the site seeing as how she's right, and the stats back it up.:lol:

[Dipre]

As I said, I agree with this philosophy. But not every run is scored that way. If no one is hitting above .260 on your team, it's going to be a long season.

They can be hitting .260, but if they're getting on base at a combined .350 + clip and hitting for power, they will score runs. Lots of them.

[Emmz]

Albert Pujols:

OPS RBI Runs HR OBP

1.101 135 124 47 .443


Ryan Howard:

OPS RBI Runs HR OBP

.931 141 105 45 .360


As you can see, Pujols and Howard had similar offensive numbers, with Pujols holding a decided edge in OBP and Runs scored, these two, of course, go hand in hand, let's compare the overall "Hand" Pujols and Howard had in the runs scored by each of their teams:


135 RBI + 124 R= 259 Runs.


Howard:
141 RBI + 105 R= 246 Runs.


That's a thirteen run scored difference in production that derived directly from Pujol's ability to get on base more consistently while hitting in a vastly inferior lineup.

You sent the girl to the volleyball site, but i suggest you reconsider your position as yo who visits the site seeing as how she's right, and the stats back it up.:lol:

What I have in bold is what I want to drive home the most. Pujols was better at producing in a lineup that's, as you said, VASTLY inferior.

[bsox0407]

What I have in bold is what I want to drive home the most. Pujols was better at producing in a lineup that's, as you said, VASTLY inferior.

Its not like pujols puts the guys he drives in in scoring position. that is why RBI is a lousy stat. A player could be amazing hitting out of the four hole yet 1-3 suck and barely get on. Put Ryan Howard or Pujols on the Pirates. In the Four hole.

[Keeper]

They can be hitting .260, but if they're getting on base at a combined .350 + clip and hitting for power, they will score runs. Lots of them.

That is true, but again if you are lacking in power or plate discipline, BA comes into play. And since not every player has power and plate discipline, BA inevitably comes into play.

[Dipre]

Its not like pujols puts the guys he drives in in scoring position. that is why RBI is a lousy stat. A player could be amazing hitting out of the four hole yet 1-3 suck and barely get on. Put Ryan Howard or Pujols on the Pirates. In the Four hole.

Howard ain't driving 140 on the Royals either.

[Emmz]

Better yet, switch their teams around. I guarantee, Howard's RBI's and runs scored go way down, while Pujols' go way up.

[bsox0407]

Better yet, switch their teams around. I guarantee, Howard's RBI's and runs scored go way down, while Pujols' go way up.

Chase could be stealing some away from Howard though. Not saying Pujols wouldn't go up cause they would.

[Emmz]

Not really. Chase steals a few, but more often than not, it's because of guys like Chase Utley that Howard gets so many RBI.

[bsox0407]

Not really. Chase steals a few, but more often than not, it's because of guys like Chase Utley that Howard gets so many RBI.

True. With The Phillies front end lineup they should have about 350 RBIS from the 1-4 easy

[Emmz]

I bet Pujols could easily better Ryan Howard's RBI numbers with that lineup. And I mean easily.

[bsox0407]

I bet Pujols could easily better Ryan Howard's RBI numbers with that lineup. And I mean easily.

Give anyone that lineup. there RBIS will go up.

[flinch]

I understand the obsession with Agon. However, we know that we are certainly going to over spend. What happened to the Miggy idea? They certainly would love Buch and prospects. He is a proven American league hitter entering his prime. They can certainly absorb his contract. If Hoyer won't take Ells and Buch it's time to move on. Keep Els and get it done with Detroit. They accepted Austin Jackson for Granderson they must be desperate. Jackson's production in the minors was nothing special. Sorry, to rant in my first post it's awfully cold in Vermont we have nothing better to do!

[Emmz]

While he certainly is a good bat, there are also character issues there. Also, while they accepted Austin Jackson for Granderson, they also were given other prospects. Tons of them. Granted they also gave up Edwin Jackson, who is a decent pitcher, but they still got more than just Austin Jackson.

Also, another thing about that, is they at first wanted Buchholz or Ellsbury for GRANDERSON. Granderson is a guy who hits a good amount of home runs, but has terrible platoon stats. I'm going to go ahead and say that if they play that game again, they'll have a similar price for Cabrera to Gonzalez.

[ORS]

BP tracks RBI opportunities.

Howard knocked in 19.2% of his opportunities. Pujols knocked in 18.5%. So, Howard was better at driving runners in. Part of that may be due to the fact that Pujols is more respected as a hitter with runners on, getting IBB'd 44 times compared to Howard's 8.

[BoSox21]

It also doesn't factor in pitchers pitching around Pujols more compared to Howard, who has a penchant for striking out

[Emmz]

Agreed, I think both a combination of that, and like ORS said, the IBB difference is pretty significant. Otherwise, I don't think Howard's the more productive guy, because the way I see it, Pujols not only is similar in driving in runs, but is also unarguably better at NOT creating outs. The way I see it, not creating outs gives your teammates an opportunity to create runs.

[Dipre]

BP tracks RBI opportunities.

Howard knocked in 19.2% of his opportunities. Pujols knocked in 18.5%. So, Howard was better at driving runners in. Part of that may be due to the fact that Pujols is more respected as a hitter with runners on, getting IBB'd 44 times compared to Howard's 8.

An to further drive the point home:

Pujols OPS with Runners on, RISP:

On: 1.107

SP: 1.253

Howard OPS with Runners on, RISP:

On: .968

SP:.983

As you can see, even though Howard both drove in more runs, and drove in a higher percentage of runs, Pujols was still more productive in RBI situations, the fact that he couldn't drive in more runs can be easily attributed to the fact that, as Bosox21 stated, pitchers will pitch around Pujols with men on base whenever they get the chance.

[Plumpamania]

Excellent posts here and a wonderful discussion to read. But now by moving away from the Ryan Howard versus Albert Pujols argument and going back onto track...

I believe a previous poster discussed Joe Mauer after the season/mid season as a pick up, which while being an excellent addition would never happen. However! Minnesota probably can't afford both Mauer and Morneau, what about looking into Morneau who is as productive as any of the 1B players mentioned in this thread. I'd imagine a Clay Buccholtz and Type B prospect(s) would be beneficial for the Twins who would look to repackage around Mauer with Delmon Young and company.

[Dipre]

Excellent posts here and a wonderful discussion to read. But now by moving away from the Ryan Howard versus Albert Pujols argument and going back onto track...

I believe a previous poster discussed Joe Mauer after the season/mid season as a pick up, which while being an excellent addition would never happen. However! Minnesota probably can't afford both Mauer and Morneau, what about looking into Morneau who is as productive as any of the 1B players mentioned in this thread. I'd imagine a Clay Buccholtz and Type B prospect(s) would be beneficial for the Twins who would look to repackage around Mauer with Delmon Young and company.

The problem is, that i believe they can afford both, for the following reasons:

1) He'll receive the same 14 million compensation from '10 to '14, which is quite reasonable given his production, and an amount they should be able to absorb, specially with no incremental value to it.

2) The new ballpark should allow them to raise their payroll to a much more respectable number.

3) The PR hit for getting rid of either of them would be enormous.

4) The main idea behind keeping Mauer is to field a competitive Twins team, and that would be greatly handicapped by dealing Morneau.

In my opinion, all signs indicate to them being able to retain them both and actually doing it.

[Plumpamania]

The problem is, that i believe they can afford both, for the following reasons:

1) He'll receive the same 14 million compensation from '10 to '14, which is quite reasonable given his production, and an amount they should be able to absorb, specially with no incremental value to it.

Just like they absorbed Johan Santana? Just saying.


2) The new ballpark should allow them to raise their payroll to a much more respectable number.

An outdoor ballpark in April and May in MN is a horrible idea and will probably attract less paying customers during those months. Looking into attendance numbers.. MN was #14 in Overall Attendance and #15 in MLB in % of Seats Filled. That's while paying customers are inside a dome w/o the weather conditions battering them. Not to mention that again playing outside in April/May in MN would not attract top FA's...


3) The PR hit for getting rid of either of them would be enormous.

Def on Mauer, but I was talking about obtaining Morneau. Still a hit but no where near the hit from Mauer..


4) The main idea behind keeping Mauer is to field a competitive Twins team, and that would be greatly handicapped by dealing Morneau.

Agreed it would be, however obtaining a Clay Buccholtz and either a Lars Anderson or Ryan Kalish would help out the Twins immensely in terms of payroll flexability. Def a HUGE hit, but something that might entice them, while the richest owner in baseball continues to screw his fans.


In my opinion, all signs indicate to them being able to retain them both and actually doing it.

Agreed, but it is something to look into...

[Dipre]

Just like they absorbed Johan Santana? Just saying

No new stadium, Santana is a pitcher.




An outdoor ballpark in April and May in MN is a horrible idea and will probably attract less paying customers during those months. Looking into attendance numbers.. MN was #14 in Overall Attendance and #15 in MLB in % of Seats Filled. That's while paying customers are inside a dome w/o the weather conditions battering them. Not to mention that again playing outside in April/May in MN would not attract top FA's...

It's not attendance, a new ballpark massively increases revenue streams due to marketing deals, advertisement opportunities, etc etc etc.



Def on Mauer, but I was talking about obtaining Morneau. Still a hit but no where near the hit from Mauer..


They could avoid that altogether by keeping both.


Agreed it would be, however obtaining a Clay Buccholtz and either a Lars Anderson or Ryan Kalish would help out the Twins immensely in terms of payroll flexability. Def a HUGE hit, but something that might entice them, while the richest owner in baseball continues to screw his fans.

Well Pohlad Sr is dead, for one, also, i firmly believe they'd rather hang onto Morneau, not to mention that a package of Bucholz, Anderson and Kalish probably doesn't get it done, i simply can't find a deal where both parties can meet the middle ground. Morneau has a reasonable contract, but not a bargain, so the leverage they have is minimal, but their valuing of Morneau isn't, if you think about it, they're better off keeping Mauer and Morneau, and i (this is personal opinion) firmly believe they'll have the payroll flexibility to pull it off once the new stadium opens.

[Emmz]

Just like they absorbed Johan Santana? Just saying.



An outdoor ballpark in April and May in MN is a horrible idea and will probably attract less paying customers during those months. Looking into attendance numbers.. MN was #14 in Overall Attendance and #15 in MLB in % of Seats Filled. That's while paying customers are inside a dome w/o the weather conditions battering them. Not to mention that again playing outside in April/May in MN would not attract top FA's...



Def on Mauer, but I was talking about obtaining Morneau. Still a hit but no where near the hit from Mauer..



Agreed it would be, however obtaining a Clay Buccholtz and either a Lars Anderson or Ryan Kalish would help out the Twins immensely in terms of payroll flexability. Def a HUGE hit, but something that might entice them, while the richest owner in baseball continues to screw his fans.



Agreed, but it is something to look into...

The Twins have said publicly that they're talking about expanding the payroll closer to about 90-100M, which would allow them to put down a massive deal for Mauer to remain with the Twins. Especially considering they're at around 65-70M right now.

Also, don't forget, Mauer has also stated that he wishes to be with the Twins, even if it means making less than he would elsewhere. The man's dedicated to Minnesota, because it's where he's played and lived his entire life. The guy's the hometown kid, and losing him would mean a huge hit for the Twins, in more than one way.


Well Pohlad Sr is dead, for one

No one here would know this, but actually, Pohlad's son is every bit the prick his dad was.

[Rdsxmbnt]

Woah trading Buchholz for Morneau??? The Twins would be wise to do that swap in a heart beat. I like Morneau but frankly in this field of 1B he's only slightly above average assuming a ~.870 OPS is about what he'll bring to the table.

[Palodios]

They can afford both, but the question is, do they want to. Mauer has 3 batting titles and saw a huge increase in his power numbers last year (28 home runs... 15 more than his previous best season). And he's only 26! And he's a catcher!

There aren't a whole lot of models to compare contracts to, but let's use Arod. Arod got his massive contract once in his early 30s. 27 million a year for ten years. Obviously Mauer doesn't have the HR/RBI numbers, but considering that he is younger, has an incredible batting average and plays the position with the weakest field of players, do you see him getting any less than 25 for 7-8 years? 25 million is a lot of money when minesota's payroll right now is 67. Plus the contract of Morneau and Joe Nathan? I don't see it being good for a team to have that much of its resources focused on three players.

However, I do see your point. Selling off either of your top two players when opening a new stadium could be a disastrous move.

[Dipre]

They can afford both, but the question is, do they want to. Mauer has 3 batting titles and saw a huge increase in his power numbers last year (28 home runs... 15 more than his previous best season). And he's only 26! And he's a catcher!

There aren't a whole lot of models to compare contracts to, but let's use Arod. Arod got his massive contract once in his early 30s. 27 million a year for ten years. Obviously Mauer doesn't have the HR/RBI numbers, but considering that he is younger, has an incredible batting average and plays the position with the weakest field of players, do you see him getting any less than 25 for 7-8 years? 25 million is a lot of money when minesota's payroll right now is 67. Plus the contract of Morneau and Joe Nathan? I don't see it being good for a team to have that much of its resources focused on three players.

However, I do see your point. Selling off either of your top two players when opening a new stadium could be a disastrous move.

20 AAV/7 years gets it done IMO.

[Palodios]

The thing is, not only is he the best offensive catcher out there, he's also a substantial upgrade at catcher OVER ANY CATCHER in just about ALL categories.

Mauer's stats versus the second and third best catchers' stats in the MLB for 2009.

BA .365 v .303 v .300
OBP .444 v .381 v .366
OPS 1.031 v .885 v .861
RBI 96 v 108 v 94 (he loses out to Vmart here)
Runs 94 v 88 v 74
HR 28 v 23 v 23

Were Mauer a 1st baseman, a 15-20 million contract would be reasonable, but the reason why his value is so much higher is because the lack of good catchers. At the same time, this means that trading for him would be much more expensive for prospects-- he'll definitely command Buch+Ells+ prospects, but if they sign him long term it would be more than worth it.

On a side note, VMart was in 2nd or 3rd of just about all those categories, I'm really surprised how little attention he gets that he was in the top 3 of the position.

[Dipre]

The thing is, not only is he the best offensive catcher out there, he's also a substantial upgrade at catcher in just about ALL categories.
Mauer's stats versus the second and third best catchers' stats in the MLB.

BA .365 v .303 v .300
OBP .444 v .381 v .366
OPS 1.031 v .885 v .861
RBI 96 v 108 v 94 (he loses out to Vmart here)
Runs 94 v 88 v 74
HR 28 v 23 v 23

Were Mauer a 1st baseman, a 15-20 million contract would be reasonable, but the reason why his value is so much higher is because the lack of good catchers. On a side note, VMart was in 2nd or 3rd of just about all those categories, I'm really surprised how little attention he gets that he was in the top 3 of the position.

V-Mart doesn't get as much attention because of his defensive struggles.

As for Mauer, i spoke of a 20 mill AAV because of what would be the incremental nature of the contract, i believe the deal would be structured in a way where he would begin with a salary around the 18 million dollar range and end around the 23 million dollar range.

[Wells]

No one here would know this, but actually, Pohlad's son is every bit the prick his dad was.

I'm aware.. and while I see Mauer's comments as sincere for the time he said them, we'll see next year whether he means it.. I would be shocked were he to stay in Minnesota and every Twins fan I come across (save for a very select few) fully expects Mauer to come back.. why? because he's a hometown kid? because he "says" he wants to stay in the TC? The way it gets talked about out here I'd think the Twins would have offered an extension by now if they were truly serious about wanting him here and paying him what he's worth.. it's not like the Twins are doing anything else this winter, so why not hammer it out now before the media and smarks really get their hands on it?

But anyone can say anything and I don't see Joe Mauer that much differently than anyone else where talking is concerned.. bullshit walks.. money talks .. and I have a feeling a lot of Twins fans are going to be let down BIG TIME come next winter when he sees fat greenbacks luring him eastward..

I also just don't see him remaining in MN though simply because (as Emmz says) Pohlad Jr is.. a prick .. also a tightwad.. no way he stays unless he takes the discount.

and IMHO he won't.

[Palodios]

Well, I think we're going to have to disagree on that one. But its really irrelevent, the point is that its a lot of money for a team with a 60 million dollar budget

[Emmz]

No, there are tons of reasons, as Dipre pointed out before. A new stadium, expansion of payroll, Wanting to keep fans, rather than losing tons of them, etc. Joe Mauer is a franchise player, and expanding the payroll from 65M to 90-100M would mean we'd have enough, and then some.

[Emmz]

Well, I think we're going to have to disagree on that one. But its really irrelevent, the point is that its a lot of money for a team with a 60 million dollar budget

The team has publicly stated it is going to expand to around 90-100M next year. That's very respectable, and would definitely give them enough to keep him in Minnesota. He's one of the 3 best players in baseball, and in my opinion, the second only to Pujols.

[Palodios]

I wasn't aware that they planned to boost their payroll that much. If you look at their player salaries, it is incredibly top-heavy, and there is usually a trend for small-market teams to make big moves when that happens, but the payroll bump changes things.

[Plumpamania]

Emmz do you have a link to that statement for the expansion of payroll, I'd love to see the Twinkies finally get some green loving.

If they do expand, there is no way that Mauer is leaving. They'd be able to keep both Morneau and Mauer. And my idea is down the toilet. I'd love to see the Twins land a FA over Boston or NY, would finally bring a good team run by a decent GM in the AL Central that has $$ to spend (Yes I think Ken Williams is a moron).

[Keeper]

1. The Metrodome was maybe the worst park in all of baseball. Attendance will go up in the new stadium.

2. Mauer isn't going anywhere. Call it a hunch.

3. Buccholz for Morneau straight up would not be a good trade for the Twins, as Buccholz hasn't done jack yet.

4. Kenny Williams is not a moron. He's made some bad moves, but he's also made a lot of good moves. And, IMO, the good far outweigh the bad. Look at Jake Peavy. He got him for practically nothing.

[jacksonianmarch]

Clayton Richard and Aaron Poreda are going to be very good pitchers and the other two guys are good prospects as well. I actually think that the White Sox got ripped off in the Peavy deal since they get to pay the three most expensive yrs on his contract and he hasnt been full healthy in 2-3 seasons.

[Keeper]

I believe Richard will remain inconsistent and Poreda will ultimately be a reliever. Especially if his command doesn't improve. Peavy had 27 starts in 2008 and 34 starts in 2007. He hasn't been that injury-plagued.

[jacksonianmarch]

What you believe and what the scouts believe are two different things. Both Richard and Poreda are young, so they'll be inconsistent. But in SD, both will be starters and I think one of those two ends up replacing Peavy atop their rotation. If Hoyer and Co. do things right with the Adrian Gonzalez deal and get Buchholz plus, they are gonna have a hell of a rotation. Buchholz, Young, Poreda, Richard, Correia is going to be a pretty good 1-5 in 2011 and beyond IMO

[Keeper]

Well, I'm not a mindless fan. I don't believe every hyped prospect will strike gold. I've seen Richard and Poreda pitch. Richard doesn't have enough deception in his delivery. His stuff is just good enough to overcome his control issues, but not by much. Poreda could still develop, but right now his command sucks and his secondary pitches are just so-so. He's got a good fastball and a decent changeup, although he telegraphs it sometimes in his motion.

[SoxSport]

Since the Red Sox don't deal in fantasy money, I don't see another big ticket FA signing. Their next big ticket will be Beckett--hopefully. They are already planning that with their frontloading of Lackey's contract. I doubt they will even sign Papelbon--not for the money he will want. Bard will be the next closer in a year or two.

I think they will go hard at AdGon because it makes the most sense. I don't think they can trade both Buchholz and Ellsbury for him. They have enough other talent to do the job with just Buchholz.

They might get Beltre, but only at their price. Another RHd hitting platoon outfielder is also in the cards.

As for Morneau, he is one of the Twins' franchise guys along with Mauer, and I don't think he's going anywhere. I do think Theo will continue to bug the Marlins about Hanley R.

[Dojji]

Yeah, get Hanley, sign LaRoche for 1B, and Holliday or Bay for LF.

Ellsbury, LF/CF
Pedroia, 2B
Holliday, LF
Ramirez, SS
Drew, RF
Youkilis, 3B
Ortiz, DH
Martinez, C
LaRoche, 1B


25 HR hitter batting in the 9 spot for lack of anywhere else to put him.

Heck, forget LF, just get Hanley and LaRoche and run Cameron on the 9 hole. The potential for awesome is HUGE here.

[Plumpamania]

Well, I'm not a mindless fan. I don't believe every hyped prospect will strike gold. I've seen Richard and Poreda pitch. Richard doesn't have enough deception in his delivery. His stuff is just good enough to overcome his control issues, but not by much. Poreda could still develop, but right now his command sucks and his secondary pitches are just so-so. He's got a good fastball and a decent changeup, although he telegraphs it sometimes in his motion.

And playing in the NL and PETCO will surely help. Clayton Richard was a top level prospect and Poreda has some great upside to him. Both pitchers are fairly young and have a lot of room to improve and grow.


Peavy had 27 starts in 2008 and 34 starts in 2007.

And how many starts did he have in 2009? Uh-oh I see a trend of decreasing GS and Peavy has never really been a horse in terms of IP.

Ken Williams has made multiple deals that made little to zero sense. From his handling of Nick Swisher to Jim Thome's trade to his handling of Josh Fields and Javier Vazquez. He's doing the same thing to Bobby Jenks at the moment. It's seriously a wonder as to how they won a World Series with him.

I forgot the topic I started off w/ but Kenny Williams is a complete moron.

[Keeper]

Jake Peavy's workload

2003: 194 2/3 innings
2004: 166 1/3 innings
2005: 203 innings
2006: 202 1/3 innings
2007: 223 1/3 innings
2008: 173 2/3 innings
2009: 101 2/3 innings

Nearly 4 seasons out of 7 with 200 or more innings. In this day and age, that's not bad.

Nick Swisher played horribly for the Sox. At this point, it looks like Cashman got more value in the trade, but it's not like Williams had a lot of leverage with Swisher coming off his worst season.

The Jim Thome trade shows how little you know. Thome was dealt for his own good. Williams wanted to give him a shot at a WS.

Josh Fields is awful. That's not Williams' fault.

Javier Vazquez underperformed. He had 1 good season out of 3 with the Sox. The only thing he really did was eat up innings.

Now that Jenks is off roids, his velocity is way down. He blew 6 saves last season.

They won a WS in 2005 because Williams brought in Ozzie, Dye, Pierzynski, Iguchi, Uribe, Podsednik, Contreras, Everett, Garcia, Hermanson, Politte, Marte, Hernandez (who got out of a bases loaded-no outs jam in the postseason without giving up a run, Red Sox fans might remember this) Cotts, Blum (WS hero), and Jenks. And they won without Frank Thomas.

Also stole John Danks from the Rangers and Gavin Floyd from the Phillies.

[Plumpamania]

Josh Fields was a top rated prospect by Baseball America who was never truly given a shot to play everyday, and had his position on a field swapped in and out on a day to day basis and was put behind the aweful Joe Crede.

Blowing 6 saves is nothing horrible. Brian Fuentes had 7 and Joe Nathan had 5. Those are two of the best closers in baseball.

Vazquez did have one outstanding season with an ERA+ if 126 and two seasons at an ERA+ of 98. He won 42 games in 3 seasons with the White Sox and he hurled at minimum 208 IP per season. He was far from horrible. No pitcher really does well pitching at home in Chicago, as it's one of the top 3 "homer domes" in baseball (along with the new Yankee Stadium and the Great American Ballpark in Cincinatti).

More to come when I get home...

[Dipre]

Yeah, get Hanley, sign LaRoche for 1B, and Holliday or Bay for LF.

Ellsbury, LF/CF
Pedroia, 2B
Holliday, LF
Ramirez, SS
Drew, RF
Youkilis, 3B
Ortiz, DH
Martinez, C
LaRoche, 1B


25 HR hitter batting in the 9 spot for lack of anywhere else to put him.

Heck, forget LF, just get Hanley and LaRoche and run Cameron on the 9 hole. The potential for awesome is HUGE here.

Hanley seems like a much more difficult proposition than any of the other two names being thrown around here. You might like him, but Florida has given no indication whatsoever that they desire to trade him.

I would avoid LaRoche at all costs. He limits the potential for awesome exponentially.

Holliday and Bay would both seem like pipe dreams after signing Lackey, but since Bay's agent shot himself in the foot, and the Yankees are going to sign Johnson giving them no space for either on their roster, i don't see it as completely impossible.

[Keeper]

Josh Fields is a very bad baseball player. In 2007, he was a 1-tool player; he hit for power. Now, he doesn't even do that. Crede was an excellent defensive 3B who had a lot of back injuries and consistently hit for power.

I believe Jenks is on the decline. His velocity isn't what it used to be. In the past, he threw a heavy ball, but he gave up a lot of long balls this year. His 1.5 HR/9 in 2009 is terrible.

Vazquez is an NL pitcher. He was mediocre in New York and Chicago. The Cell is definitely a hitter's park, but guess what? Vazquez was actually worse on the road in 2006, 2007, and 2008 with the Sox. Check the splits.

No pitcher does well at home in Chicago? How about Buehrle (3.70 ERA, 1.249 WHIP), Floyd (3.57 ERA, 1.143 WHIP), Danks (3.66 ERA, 1.183 WHIP in 2008), Esteban Loaiza (3.32 ERA, 1.217 WHIP in 2003), Bartolo Colon (3.84 ERA, 1.151 WHIP in 2003), Jack McDowell (3.55 ERA, 1.276 WHIP), Jon Garland (4.15 ERA, 1.313 WHIP), Alex Fernandez (3.51 ERA, 1.171 WHIP), Wilson Alvarez (3.83 ERA, 1.381 WHIP), and Mike Sirotka (4.02 ERA, 1.363 WHIP). Even Vazquez pitched well at the Cell in 2007 (3.57 ERA, 1.099 WHIP).

[SoxSport]

Another big ticket will put them in the luxury tax, so I don't think it will happen. More likely would be a trade for AdGon or something else that doesn't cost big bucks. Branyon might be a possibility, but they seem to be committed to Kotchman because they like him defensively. He will have to hit better.

I've heard the delay on Lowell might be the Sox buying time to sort out the 3B situation. If Mike is healthy, bringing him back in a multi-role might not be a bad option.

[mvp 78]

Seriously, LaRoche? I just don't see it.

[Dipre]

Seriously, LaRoche? I just don't see it.

Thank you.

Thank you.

Thank you.

[mvp 78]

His best season was 4 years ago. He's 30, with limited upside. Of all the people we could hope for, he's not really up there. He's a stop-gap more than anything else.

And he's averaging a .263 obp and 26 gdp's per season in the AL! WTF??? (j/k)

[Dojji]

Seriously, LaRoche? I just don't see it.

LaRoche is the quick fix. An average to above average bat with average defense. He can fill the position with a competent player and leave you free to use your resources in other places.

If you focus your big-ticket money and major trade chips into other parts of the lineup and field -- say Hanley for SS and Holliday for LF -- and bring in LaRoche to replace Lowell, that's probably the way to upgrade the most positions possible, add the most offense possible overall, and maximize this year's lineup. And I like the idea of a lineup where the only two people who aren't poised to hit 20 or more homers are your #1 and #2 hitters.

You are taking a bit of a defensive hit at first base, but I think that's made up for in other areas, such as the defensive improvement in left field, the defensive improvement at third base, and the huge gain in runs scored.

[Dipre]

LaRoche is the quick fix. An average to above average bat with average defense. He can fill the position with a competent player and leave you free to use your resources in other places.

If you focus your big-ticket money and major trade chips into other parts of the lineup and field -- say Hanley for SS and Holliday for LF -- and bring in LaRoche to replace Lowell, that's probably the way to upgrade the most positions possible, add the most offense possible overall, and maximize this year's lineup. And I like the idea of a lineup where the only two people who aren't poised to hit 20 or more homers are your #1 and #2 hitters.

You are taking a bit of a defensive hit at first base, but I think that's made up for in other areas, such as the defensive improvement in left field, the defensive improvement at third base, and the huge gain in runs scored.

With Scutaro signed for five mill to play SS, i think it's not realistic to expect the FO to spend considerable resources to bring in another SS when they have technically already dumped Lowell to open up a corner infield position.

[Emmz]

Adam LaRoche definitely would be taking a step back, still, with all that we have to replace. He's better than Kotchman by a mile, but seriously? Replace Bay with Cameron, replace Lowell with LaRoche? You've been stating that Adrian Beltre wouldn't be an upgrade over Lowell, but LaRoche would? I don't understand that. Beltre's had similar-to-better OPS from 2006-2008, in Safeco field, and he's superior defensively.

[Dipre]

Adam LaRoche definitely would be taking a step back, still, with all that we have to replace. He's better than Kotchman by a mile, but seriously? Replace Bay with Cameron, replace Lowell with LaRoche? You've been stating that Adrian Beltre wouldn't be an upgrade over Lowell, but LaRoche would? I don't understand that. Beltre's had similar-to-better OPS from 2006-2008, in Safeco field, and he's superior defensively.

LaRoche will probably command a 2-year deal with a 7 mill AAV, while Beltre would command a 3-year, 9 mill AAV. I'd go with Beltre every time.

[Dojji]

Beltre's had similar-to-better OPS from 2006-2008

that's simply not true. LaRoche has been a consistent .800-.850 OPS hitter. Beltre has been a consistent .750-.800 OPS hittter. LaRoche has been consistently, if slightly, superior to Beltre as a hitter every year the two have both been in the league.

In fact, they were only tied one year, in 2007, and that was Beltre's best season since his breakout in 2004 -- and LaRoche's worst year since his rookie campaign.

And going further back, LaRoche's WORST offensive season, his .775 OPS 2005 campaign, represented about an average year for Beltre.

LaRoche has a career .834 OPS to Beltre's .770. And it aiin't exactly like the Pittsburgh Pirates have been spoiling him with vast protection in that lineup of theirs

Yeah, Beltre's OPS is the same as Ellsbury's. Whatta sluggah!

Beltre wins everything back in defense, and in his position along the defensive spectrum, but when it comes to offense alone, LaRoche is clearly the better hitter.

[Dipre]

that's simply not true. LaRoche has been a consistent .800-.850 OPS hitter. Beltre has been a consistent .750-.800 OPS hittter.

In fact, they were only tied one year, in 2007, and that was Beltre's best season since his breakout in 2004 -- and LaRoche's worst year since his rookie campaign.

LaRoche has a career .834 OPS to Beltre's .770.

Yeah, Beltre's OPS is the same as Ellsbury's. Whatta sluggah!

Smug comment. Typical Doiji.

Anyways, if we attempt to use logical analysis, it's easy to demonstrate how the stadium plays a pivotal position in Beltre's OPS, not to mention Ellsbury has never hit 25 HR's in three straight seasons.

If you ever break the twelve-year-old mentality pattern and reach a level of adulthood that will allow you to participate in baseball discussion not centered around your passion for the obviously inferior overall player (this is pathological too) then hit me up, i'll be ready to talk.

[jacksonianmarch]

LaRoche isnt coming to Boston. The Sox dealt him for Kotchmann for a reason. They value his defense and his ability to make contact over LaRoche's power capability.

Beltre would be an interesting player. He was absolutely terrible last season, so park effect or not, he really, really sucked. Now, one of his balls got smashed, so mulligans are possible when you become a uni-ball. With the move to Fenway, and surrounded by good hitters, he probably cracks the .800OPS mark. That being said, he needs to make a massive improvement over last season to approach that. Also, the sox will likely crack the luxury tax with a Beltre signing, so that might not be in the cards.

[Dojji]

Wow, Dipre it took you exactly two posts to employ your first and favorite logical falacy -- Argumentum ad homenim FTW!

(that's "For The Weak" by the way)

[Emmz]

that's simply not true. LaRoche has been a consistent .800-.850 OPS hitter. Beltre has been a consistent .750-.800 OPS hittter. LaRoche has been consistently, if slightly, superior to Beltre as a hitter every year the two have both been in the league.

In fact, they were only tied one year, in 2007, and that was Beltre's best season since his breakout in 2004 -- and LaRoche's worst year since his rookie campaign.

And going further back, LaRoche's WORST offensive season, his .755 OPS 2005 campaign, represented about an average year for Beltre.

LaRoche has a career .834 OPS to Beltre's .770. And it aiin't exactly like the Pittsburgh Pirates have been spoiling him with vast protection in that lineup of theirs

Yeah, Beltre's OPS is the same as Ellsbury's. Whatta sluggah!

Beltre wins everything back in defense, and in his position along the defensive spectrum, but when it comes to offense alone, LaRoche is clearly the better hitter.

Ballpark factors, my friend. Beltre's played in pitcher's parks his entire career. Not to mention, he's hit 20HR ever year pretty much since 2002 with the exception of last year. Only you could make the comparison to Ellsbury.

[Dojji]

LaRoche isnt coming to Boston. The Sox dealt him for Kotchmann for a reason.

Yeah, because the contract was expiring at the end of the season, and Kotchman had a couple years left. It was a way to get something for nothing, only instead they got 2 more years of nothing for nothing. On the whole it was a stupid reason, since LaRoche wouldn't be THAT difficult to re-sign and they were apparently going to try to get rid of Lowell anyway.

[Emmz]

Wow, Dipre it took you exactly two posts to employ your first and favorite logical falacy -- Argumentum ad homenim FTW!

(that's "For The Weak" by the way)

You're just proving his point. If you want to talk intelligent baseball, and stop the hypocrisy, then feel free to do so, otherwise I think the forum would appreciate an end to the smugness. Lord knows I'm echoing the sentiments of everyone else here.

[Dipre]

Wow, Dipre it took you exactly two posts to employ your first and favorite logical falacy -- Argumentum ad homenim FTW!

(that's "For The Weak" by the way)

If you're going to use the phrase, at least use it correctly.

If you can't see the fact that Beltre's the superior player and better fit, that's your problem.

Anyways, i'm done here, but let me leave with the suggestion to only use phrases with meanings you actually know to interpret.

Good day.

[Dojji]

Ballpark factors, my friend. Beltre's played in pitcher's parks his entire career. Not to mention, he's hit 20HR ever year pretty much since 2002 with the exception of last year. Only you could make the comparison to Ellsbury.

PNC park ain't exactly Coors Field, sister. You and Dipre are kinda abusing the park factor argument anyway -- trying to milk it for more than is reasonable.

[Dipre]

PNC park ain't exactly Coors Field, sister. You and Dipre are kinda abusing the park factor argument anyway -- trying to milk it for more than is reasonable.

Do you have the info on the park factors to back up your claim?

[Dojji]

You're just proving his point. If you want to talk intelligent baseball, and stop the hypocrisy, then feel free to do so, otherwise I think the forum would appreciate an end to the smugness. Lord knows I'm echoing the sentiments of everyone else here.

Well if you're going to round on me for smugness, you guys could maybe start by checking your freaking facts. You were dead wrong about LaRoche's offense vs. Beltre's, don't try to turn that around by getting offended at me by pointing it out.

And for the record, I don't want LaRoche because I'm desperate for LaRoche. I want LaRoche because I want us to go balls to the wall after Hanley and pick up a real slugging LF, and LaRoche will do to replace Lowell and complete the offseason. He's PART of the plan, he isn't the plan by himself. But SS is more important.

[Dipre]

PNC Park:


Runs Hit HR 2B 3B BB
1.022 1.054 1.053 0.939 0.714 0.969

Above average on Runs, hits and HR's.



Safeco:

Runs Hit HR 2B 3B BB
0.947 0.886 0.984 0.911 0.842 1.085

Below average on everything but BB.

MLB park Factors (http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/parkfactor)

[Dipre]

Well if you're going to round on me for smugness, you guys could maybe start by checking your freaking facts. You were dead wrong about LaRoche's offense vs. Beltre's, don't try to turn that around by getting offended at me by pointing it out.

And for the record, I don't want LaRoche because I'm desperate for LaRoche. I want LaRoche because I want us to go balls to the wall after Hanley and pick up a real slugging LF, and LaRoche will do to replace Lowell and complete the offseason. He's PART of the plan, he isn't the plan by himself. But SS is more important.

If dead wrong means ignoring obvious factors to suit your arguments, then yes, we are indeed wrong, however:

1)You tried to compare PNC to Safeco, that is fallacy.

2) You compared Beltre to Jacoby Ellsbury. That is fallacy.

3) You fail to establish a consistent thought process applying logical values.

[Dojji]

Do you have the info on the park factors to back up your claim?

http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/parkfactor/_/year/2008
http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/parkfactor/_/year/2007

It bounces between average stadium and major pitchers' park depending on the year. Last 3 seasons, it was 14th, 27th, and 20th in runs respectively.

Which suggests a certain variability that would mean maybe park factors have some random factors involved and shouldn't be taken too seriously in most cases.

[Emmz]

Well if you're going to round on me for smugness, you guys could maybe start by checking your freaking facts. You were dead wrong about LaRoche's offense vs. Beltre's, don't try to turn that around by getting offended at me by pointing it out.

The ballpark factors for PNC Park: Check them.


And for the record, I don't want LaRoche because I'm desperate for LaRoche. I want LaRoche because I want us to go balls to the wall after Hanley and pick up a real slugging LF, and LaRoche will do to replace Lowell and complete the offseason. He's PART of the plan, he isn't the plan by himself. But SS is more important.

We made a push for Scutaro, pretty sure we're sticking with him. It's really that simple. If we saw ourselves with Hanley, we wouldn't have made such a deal. Also, Beltre costs little more than LaRoche does, and is an upgrade offensively and defensively.

[jacksonianmarch]

Dojji, turn off MLB 09 the Show and join reality.

[Rdsxmbnt]

can all you pots stop calling the kettle black

[Dipre]

http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/parkfactor/_/year/2008
http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/parkfactor/_/year/2007

It bounces between average stadium and major pitchers' park depending on the year. Last 3 seasons, it was 14th, 27th, and 20th in runs respectively.

Which suggests a certain variability that would mean maybe park factors have some random factors involved and shouldn't be taken too seriously in most cases.

Conveniently ignored 2009.

[Emmz]

http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/parkfactor/_/year/2008
http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/parkfactor/_/year/2007

It bounces between average stadium and major pitchers' park depending on the year. Last 3 seasons, it was 14th, 27th, and 20th in runs respectively.

Hey, uhhhh, Dojji. Those be from, well, not this year.

[Dipre]

Dojji, turn off MLB 09 the Show and join reality.

Jacko, + respect for this post.

[Dipre]

can all you pots stop calling the kettle black

Fantastic contribution.

[Dojji]

Oh, interesting stat -- to me anyway -- Fenway is apparently one of the consistently hardest places for a generic hitter to HR in the big leagues. Sort of suggests that a guy who all he does productively is homer may not be a good fit.

[Rdsxmbnt]

Hey, uhhhh, Dojji. Those be from, well, not this year.

Does the park change shapes or something? I'm pretty sure much of Dojj's argument consisted of past years stats also...

[Dojji]

Conveniently ignored 2009.

Sure, since it was a pretty neutral result. Point stands based on 2008 and 2007 though.

Also, just look at how much year to year variability there is in "park factors." And look how many of the league's worst offenses line the bottom of that list. I'm sure the park contrubutes some to that, but there's a legitimate chicken-and-egg question here too. Although I'm sure I can count on you to arrogantly and cavalierly dismiss that, since it doesn't support your lust for Beltre.

[Dipre]

Oh, interesting stat -- to me anyway -- Fenway is apparently one of the consistently hardest places for a generic hitter to HR in the big leagues. Sort of suggests that a guy who all he does productively is homer may not be a good fit.

Not for RHH.

[Emmz]

can all you pots stop calling the kettle black

Trying to continue an old fight that was dropped in favor of using statistics? I think that's a little contradictory.

[redsoxrevenge]

20 AAV/7 years gets it done IMO.

I say he gets $25 million at the minimum.

[Dipre]

Sure, since it was a pretty neutral result. Point stands based on 2008 and 2007 though.

Good point.

[Emmz]

Does the park change shapes or something? I'm pretty sure much of Dojj's argument consisted of past years stats also...

Two convenient years for him to choose. It's really that simple. 2009 is damaging to his argument.

[Rdsxmbnt]

Trying to continue an old fight that was dropped in favor of using statistics? I think that's a little contradictory.

Old fight? This is the same stuff I've been reading for the past couple months, you guys are still dicks to everyone, especially Dojj.

[Emmz]

Old fight? This is the same stuff I've been reading for the past couple months, you guys are still dicks to everyone, especially Dojj.

There's no reason to bring it up. It's a lack of maturity on your behalf. Baiting attempt is denied.

[Dipre]

Park construction:


PNC Park:

PNC Park. (http://mlb.mlb.com/stats/individual_player_hitting_chart.jsp?c_id=atl&playerID=425560&statType=1)

Safeco:

Safeco Field. (http://mlb.mlb.com/stats/individual_player_hitting_chart.jsp?c_id=atl&playerID=425560&statType=1)

Which looks more forgiving to you: PNC vs lefties? or Safeco vs righties?

[Emmz]

I say he gets $25 million at the minimum.

I said somewhere that he'd make 20M/yr, but I also said that he may make a bit more. He would make that figure in most cases, but I think he's willing to take a bit off for the Twins.

[Dipre]

that's simply not true. LaRoche has been a consistent .800-.850 OPS hitter. Beltre has been a consistent .750-.800 OPS hittter. LaRoche has been consistently, if slightly, superior to Beltre as a hitter every year the two have both been in the league.

In fact, they were only tied one year, in 2007, and that was Beltre's best season since his breakout in 2004 -- and LaRoche's worst year since his rookie campaign.

And going further back, LaRoche's WORST offensive season, his .775 OPS 2005 campaign, represented about an average year for Beltre.

LaRoche has a career .834 OPS to Beltre's .770. And it aiin't exactly like the Pittsburgh Pirates have been spoiling him with vast protection in that lineup of theirs

Yeah, Beltre's OPS is the same as Ellsbury's. Whatta sluggah!

Beltre wins everything back in defense, and in his position along the defensive spectrum, but when it comes to offense alone, LaRoche is clearly the better hitter.


Old fight? This is the same stuff I've been reading for the past couple months, you guys are still dicks to everyone, especially Dojj.

This is what started everything. You're talking out of your ass and not contributing anything. All i'm going to say about that.

[Dojji]

Not for RHH.

Actually, this is a much better doubles park than it is a HR park. In fact Fenway is consistently THE doubles park. That wall may be shallow, but you lose a lot of the benefit of that from a HR perspective by having it be freaking 100 feet tall. On the other hand, it's a great park for line drive hitters, and the more contact and more line drives, the better.

That's why a guy like Mike Lowell, who hits a lot of line drives, hits for a high average, but isn't a huge HR hitter, thrives here -- while guys like Wily Mo Pena or Jeremy Giambi who are dependent on the long bomb, tend to struggle a bit.

Also it's a testament to just how awesome Big Papi really was that he hit all those HR's here in his prime, even with the park factors... well... factored in.

What that means in real terms is that Derek Jeter would have probably been about the best Fenway hitter in the history of ever. It's why Youkilis has thrived here, and ditto for Pedroia -- they're the kind of hitter that will do well here. Guys like Beltre, or Adrian Gonzalez -- or, yes, Adam LaRoche -- will probably NOT perform up to their averages here, because they're dependent on something that isn't easy to hit.

And, ironically enough given our team's history, we might have one of the best parks ever to put a speedy fast lineup into, one that can score from first on a double consistently.

[Dipre]

I say he gets $25 million at the minimum.

I sincerely doubt he'll get 25 AAV. That's why i said the contract would probably have an incremental value.

[Emmz]

How's about getting back on topic?

I agree with you, the park factors for the Mariners and Beltre are more punishing than the ones for PNC and LaRoche.

[Dipre]

Actually, this is a much better doubles park than it is a HR park. In fact Fenway is consistently THE doubles park. That wall may be shallow, but you lose a lot of the benefit of that from a HR perspective by having it be freaking 100 feet tall. On the other hand, it's a great park for line drive hitters, and the more contact and more line drives, the better.

That's why a guy like Mike Lowell, who hits a lot of line drives, hits for a high average, but isn't a huge HR hitter, thrives here -- while guys like Wily Mo Pena or Jeremy Giambi who are dependent on the long bomb, tend to struggle a bit.

Also it's a testament to just how awesome Big Papi really was that he hit all those HR's here in his prime, even with the park factors... well... factored in.

What that means in real terms is that Derek Jeter would have probably been about the best Fenway hitter in the history of ever. It's why Youkilis has thrived here, and ditto for Pedroia -- they're the kind of hitter that will do well here. Guys like Beltre, or Adrian Gonzalez -- or, yes, Adam LaRoche -- will probably NOT perform up to their averages here, because they're dependent on something that isn't easy to hit.

However,looking at the park aspect, we both know that Fenway is a brutal park for lefty pull hitters, AKA Adam Laroche.

Look, the point is, that when you measure defense, ballpark projection and actual value, Beltre outweighs LaRoche.

You're welcome to think otherwise if you want. But at least present your points without the smugness like you've been doing after the mini-shitstorm.

[jacksonianmarch]

20 AAV/7 years gets it done IMO.

Depends on what happens in Yankee land. If Montero shows he's useless behind the dish and Romine doesnt step up in 2010, then I expect the Yanks to be in on it. And if NY is in on it, you better believe the dollars will exceed that.

[Dipre]

Depends on what happens in Yankee land. If Montero shows he's useless behind the dish and Romine doesnt step up in 2010, then I expect the Yanks to be in on it. And if NY is in on it, you better believe the dollars will exceed that.

I still highly doubt he hits FA. But that's a personal opinion so i know it doesn't hold much water. All we can do is wait and see.

[Emmz]

Depends on what happens in Yankee land. If Montero shows he's useless behind the dish and Romine doesnt step up in 2010, then I expect the Yanks to be in on it. And if NY is in on it, you better believe the dollars will exceed that.

Yeah, but we're assuming he stays with the Twins with that number. If the Yankees were to sign him, which I doubt very much, he'd make closer to 30M/yr than 20M, IMO.

[Dipre]

That's why a guy like Mike Lowell, who hits a lot of line drives, hits for a high average, but isn't a huge HR hitter, thrives here -- while guys like Wily Mo Pena or Jeremy Giambi who are dependent on the long bomb, tend to struggle a bit.

Also, this point:

Mike Lowell career LD%: 21.1%

Adrian Beltre career LD%,:19.1%


Really not that different from each other.

[Emmz]

I still highly doubt he hits FA. But that's a personal opinion so i know it doesn't hold much water. All we can do is wait and see.

Yup. I'm the biggest Mauer fan on this board, so naturally, I want him to remain in Minnesota. I think the balance of power would change a lot if he left for New York or Boston.

[Dojji]

However,looking at the park aspect, we both know that Fenway is a brutal park for lefty pull hitters, AKA Adam Laroche.

Look, the point is, that when you measure defense, ballpark projection and actual value, Beltre outweighs LaRoche.

You're welcome to think otherwise if you want. But at least present your points without the smugness like you've been doing after the mini-shitstorm.

My smugness = your abrasive arrogance.

Anywho, I'd much rather get hold of a RHH who hits a lot of line drive bombs than any LHH on the market. In my mind that means Hanley. I think that the same price that gets you AGonz and his poor build for this park gets you Hanley and his excellent one. That's my $.02.

[redsoxrevenge]

They probably can wait Beltre out and hand him a short-term contract (2 and 10?). Everything that I am reading suggests that Beltre wants a big contract that the Red Sox would not be justified in handing to him.

[Dipre]

My smugness = your abrasive arrogance.

Anywho, I'd much rather get hold of a RHH who hits a lot of line drive bombs than any LHH on the market. In my mind that means Hanley. I think that the same price that gets you AGonz and his poor build for this park gets you Hanley and his excellent one. That's my $.02.

Yet who started with which?

Hanley doesn't make for the Sox unfortunately. Not with them dumping Lowell to open up a CIF position while handing out 5 mill for Scutaro. I'd jizz in my pants if they got him though.

[Dipre]

They probably can wait Beltre out and hand him a short-term contract (2 and 10?). Everything that I am reading suggests that Beltre wants a big contract that the Red Sox would not be justified in handing to him.

2/14 if the market keeps developing the way it has been up to this point.

[redsoxrevenge]

2/14 if the market keeps developing the way it has been up to this point.

$7 million per year? That would be a good bargain for Beltre.

[Dipre]

$7 million per year? That would be a good bargain for Beltre.

I see it as completely possible, mainly because Figgins and Feliz basically set the market for Beltre, he's getting less than Figgins but more than Feliz, so 7-9 mill AAV range seems like the logical number.

[Emmz]

$7 million per year? That would be a good bargain for Beltre.

Yup, that's the thing, I'd rather get the guy who's got a bat and a glove, and looks to be a prime candidate for a bounce-back season.

[Plumpamania]

Yup, that's the thing, I'd rather get the guy who's got a bat and a glove, and looks to be a prime candidate for a bounce-back season.

And how is a guy in his 30's in line for a bounce back season? From what 2004?

[Dipre]

And how is a guy in his 30's in line for a bounce back season? From what 2004?

Adrian Beltre 2009 : 689 OPS.

Adrian Beltre career: .779

Adrian Beltre away from Safeco/Dodger: .826 OPS

[diony]

Adrian Beltre away from Safeco/Dodger: .826 OPS

Mike Lowell as a Red Sox: .829 OPS

Just saying.

[Dipre]

Mike Lowell as a Red Sox: .829 OPS

Just saying.

Honest question: What exactly does that have to do with Beltre's projection at Fenway?

[diony]

Honest question: What exactly does that have to do with Beltre's projection at Fenway?

You prefer one more year of Lowell or signing Beltre for three years?

[Dipre]

You prefer one more year of Lowell or signing Beltre for three years?

Lowell can barely play defense anymore, besides, it's highly likely that the Red Sox are the only suitors for Beltre and they could negotiate a 2/year plus option deal, even Boras can't work his magic enough to make a lone team bid against themselves.

[Emmz]

And how is a guy in his 30's in line for a bounce back season? From what 2004?

Because he played at Safeco, and Dodger Stadium before that. I think that's pretty legitimate, especially considering that he has had about 20 home runs (19 once) in every season from 2002-2008.

[Dojji]

But not 2009.

But for all he's youngish, he still has 11 big league seasons under his belt, more than most 35 year olds.

But he underwent elbow surgery during last season

But he's the third worst OB% hitter of all third basemen with at least 1200 at bats in the last 3 years. (actually maybe second worse -- I'm not sure Crede qualifies)

But Fenway isn't a very good homer park either, even to righthanders (the Monster gives, but in terms of HR's it definitely takes too)

But there's no way to have Adrian Gonzalez, David Ortiz, Kevin Youkilis and Adrian Beltre on the same roster without someone playing LF, meaning Beltre is clearly Plan B at best.

But he's asking for a 3 year deal when instead we can simply clear Lowell's salary and bring in a lower-risk substitude instead (if you don't like LaRoche, how about bringing in Garrett Atkins to play 1B?) and have more money to make other moves if things don't pan out

I think there's a lot of risk involved in bringing Adrian Beltre onto the team, and I'd be surprised if Theo was really gung-ho about the idea.

[jacksonianmarch]

Atkins signed with Baltimore yesterday

[jacksonianmarch]

Beltre has options. Apparently the Giants, A's, and Mariners are still interested in him. Theo could blow them all away if he wants too, but I have a feeling he doesnt. He's gonna want him for under $10 mil per yr, likely under $8mil. But he isnt desperate like some of the teams I mentioned

[Dipre]

But not 2009.

But for all he's youngish, he still has 11 big league seasons under his belt, more than most 35 year olds.

But he underwent elbow surgery during last season

But he's the third worst OB% hitter of all third basemen with at least 1200 at bats in the last 3 years. (actually maybe second worse -- I'm not sure Crede qualifies)

But Fenway isn't a very good homer park either, even to righthanders (the Monster gives, but in terms of HR's it definitely takes too)

But there's no way to have Adrian Gonzalez, David Ortiz, Kevin Youkilis and Adrian Beltre on the same roster without someone playing LF, meaning Beltre is clearly Plan B at best.

But he's asking for a 3 year deal when instead we can simply clear Lowell's salary and bring in a lower-risk substitude instead (if you don't like LaRoche, how about bringing in Garrett Atkins to play 1B?) and have more money to make other moves if things don't pan out

I think there's a lot of risk involved in bringing Adrian Beltre onto the team, and I'd be surprised if Theo was really gung-ho about the idea.

1) Atkins signed with the Orioles.

2) I don't believe the amount of games played is pertinent to the discussion.

3) Beltre has never had elbow surgery, it was shoulder surgery, and i also don't believe it to be pertinent to the discussion. ( I may be wrong, please post a link if i am)

4) Fenway is not a good homer park for lefties. It's not true for righties.

[Plumpamania]

Beltre and his sub .700 OPS is NOT worth anything more than $4 million per year. I'd rather take a player such as Brandon Phillips with a B level prospect and plug him in at 3B over Beltre.

[Dojji]

2) I don't believe the amount of games played is pertinent to the discussion.

You missed my point, which was about Beltre's low OBP. Only Pedro Feliz among regular 3B's has a lower one.


3) Beltre has never had elbow surgery, it was shoulder surgery, and i also don't believe it to be pertinent to the discussion. ( I may be wrong, please post a link if i am)

You're right, I misread that, but the shoulder's bad enough. Remember the numbers Drew put up the year after his shoulder surgery, and frankly Drew's a much more talented hitter than Beltre.


4) Fenway is not a good homer park for lefties. It's not true for righties.

It's a great doubles park for righties, but it's not a great HR park for anyone and is consistently one of the hardest parks in baseball to hit a HR at.

[ORS]

Incorrect. The park factors you can find at the major sporting new sites are overall park factors. A guy at Baseball Think Factory did a 3 year park factor for each park by field a couple of years ago. Fenway has a strong HR factor to LF. And, why wouldn't it? Normal flyouts are dingers there.

[SoxSport]

Epstein has to be careful he doesn't reach too high (AdGon) and come up with nothing. He doesn't want to box himself in paying too much for Gonzalez. And he doesn't want anybody else getting Beltre on the cheap. I doubt he sees Kotchman as a full-time solution at 1B. The power outage will negate the pitching advantage.

The one thing he cannot do is deal both Ellsbury and Buchholz to SD. That negates a good deal of Gonzalez. In fact, I don't think they can afford to deal Ellsbury at all, with the current OF.

[jacksonianmarch]

Incorrect. The park factors you can find at the major sporting new sites are overall park factors. A guy at Baseball Think Factory did a 3 year park factor for each park by field a couple of years ago. Fenway has a strong HR factor to LF. And, why wouldn't it? Normal flyouts are dingers there.

I guess the rationale is that hard line drive homers turn into singles, but I would venture to guess that a power hitter will hit more fly ball outs to LF that would be homers in Fenway than he would hit lower liners that would be homers anywhere else.

[jacksonianmarch]

Thing is, those long fly balls would be outs anywhere else, and turn into homers. Whereas the line drives off the wall are still hits. Hence, more total bases are generated, even if the numbers are totally even

[Dojji]

The other issue is, is it righthanded HOMERS that are boosted by the Monster, or righthanded POWER or SLG? As all discussed, Fenway is the biggest doubles park in MLB and RHH's hit a ton of doubles here.

If ORS is basing his point off SLG rather than homer count it's entirely possible there's no disagreement here at all.

[ORS]

It's not SLG, it's HR. And it wasn't BBTF, but Hardball Times. The guy who wrote the article runs Hittracker.

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/home-run-park-factor-a-new-approach/

[Dojji]

OK, that looks like gibberish for me, so that might as well be in Russian. I don't have the background in math to understand what they're talking about. So if you'd like to discuss it, it would probably be helpful to give a LITTLE more depth than that.

And if I understand that at all, which I wouldn't give good odds to, it has nothing to do with platoon advantages such as the HR advantage for RHH you're talkinng about -- except pointing out that using them can lead to inaccuracies because the current PF models don't factor in roster construction the way they should. Since our 2 best home run hitters were RHH I imagine that could be a factor. Kinda like what I was talking about by referring to a chicken and egg question.

Again, I'm fully willing to concede that RHH's thrive at Fenway, but I'd contend it has more to do with the wall and its ability to produce Fenway doubles. I'd need some hard evidence of how RHH's do exceptionally well hitting HR's at Fenway.

While your list shows that they do better hitting them out to left than they do to right, the homers to left are not all hit by righthanded hitters, one, and two, that's an average number compared to the rest of the chart. 16 more parks had homers fly out to straightaway left, and 12 parks had more to left center. That's just about the definition of "middle of the pack."

[ORS]

Over 100 means it helps HR, under 100 hurts HR.

[Dipre]

By all accounts, i believe Fenway park could only help boost Beltre's HR numbers, at least. Whereas a LH hitter who can't drive the ball the other way like LaRoche or Delgado would be hurt by Fenway's difficulty for LHH.

[Dojji]

OK, well reinterpreting that as appropriate then, the same number says 16 parks help RHH homer to straightaway left more than Fenway does, and 12 parks help RHH homer to left center more than Fenway does.

Again, "middle of the pack." And that's at the side hitters have an EASIER time homering from.

The real strength of Fenway Park is not homers. It is DOUBLES. We are the Coors Field of doubles. And that means that for best effect, we need RH hitters who hit for high averages with moderate-to-good power. And low average hitters who all they hit is homers will tend to struggle here. Consistent contact for a high average with lots and lots of gap power is the name of the game. And if that's what you're looking for Hanley is the better fit, by far, compared to Adrian Gonzalez.

[Dipre]

OK, well reinterpreting that as appropriate then, the same number says 16 parks help RHH homer to straightaway left more than Fenway does, and 12 parks help RHH homer to left center more than Fenway does.

Again, "middle of the pack." And that's at the side hitters have an EASIER time homering from.

The real strength of Fenway Park is not homers. It is DOUBLES. We are the Coors Field of doubles. And that means that for best effect, we need RH hitters who hit for high averages with moderate-to-good power. And low average hitters who all they hit is homers will tend to struggle here. Consistent contact for a high average with lots and lots of gap power is the name of the game. And if that's what you're looking for Hanley is the better fit, by far, compared to Adrian Gonzalez.

http://www.hittrackeronline.com/parks/Gonzalez_Adrian_2009_scatter.jpg

Adrian Gonzales hit 21 HRs to the opposite field last year, with a number between 10-20 fly balls that would have been either 2B's or HR's at Fenway Park instead of Petco.

He had a .306 BA with 43 XBH (28 HR's, 15 2B's) outside of Petco Park last year.

Then there's also the issue that, unlike Hanley, he's been reported as available by several media outlets, so he would not only be the better choice (unless you were going by positional standards) but also the most realistic and cost-effective one.

[Dipre]

http://www.hittrackeronline.com/parks/Ramirez_Hanley_2009_scatter.jpg

This is the chart for Hanley Ramirez. As you can see from the illustration, Adrian Gonzales actually hit more HR's (21) than Hanley (20) to Left Field.

[ORS]

OK, well reinterpreting that as appropriate then, the same number says 16 parks help RHH homer to straightaway left more than Fenway does, and 12 parks help RHH homer to left center more than Fenway does.

Again, "middle of the pack." And that's at the side hitters have an EASIER time homering from.

The real strength of Fenway Park is not homers. It is DOUBLES. We are the Coors Field of doubles. And that means that for best effect, we need RH hitters who hit for high averages with moderate-to-good power. And low average hitters who all they hit is homers will tend to struggle here. Consistent contact for a high average with lots and lots of gap power is the name of the game. And if that's what you're looking for Hanley is the better fit, by far, compared to Adrian Gonzalez.
Quit. "Middle of the pack" is what you came up with once you had access to data. Earlier it was, "not a good park for HR for anyone". It is good for RHH ..... or LHH who hit the ball the other way regularly.

Yeah, I'd rather have Hanley too.....and Albert.....oh, and Ryan Zimmerman for 3B.

Problem: They aren't definitely available. Adrian Gonzalez is.

[Dipre]

Then there's also the issue that, unlike Hanley, he's been reported as available by several media outlets, so he would not only be the better choice (unless you were going by positional standards) but also the most realistic and cost-effective one.




Problem: They aren't definitely available. Adrian Gonzalez is.

[Dojji]

I'm not sure how available Adrian is. Hoyer is asking for the moon and stars. You could probably blow away Florida for the "not available" Hanley for a similar price.


Quit. "Middle of the pack" is what you came up with once you had access to data. Earlier it was, "not a good park for HR for anyone". It is good for RHH ..... or LHH who hit the ball the other way regularly.


It's an average park for RHH, and a bad one for LHH. That averages out to a tough place to hit a HR. And it's certainly not a bandbox in any direction. Please stop trying to beat on me with minor technicalities.


This is the chart for Hanley Ramirez. As you can see from the illustration, Adrian Gonzales actually hit more HR's (21) than Hanley (20) to Left Field.

1: Is there a similar chart for doubles? I'd like to take a look at it, since your argument doesn't even refute that point of mine. As a righthanded pull hitter I imagine that Hanley would have a huge advantage there, and that's the part Fenway will really help.

EDIT: Yeah, Hanley routinely hits about 10-15 more doubles a season and hits for a much higher AVG.

2: Hanley's a shortstop. He doesn't need to produce as much as Gonzo to be worth the same.

[Dipre]

Well you're ignoring the stats adjustment from Petco to Fenway. And as long as Gonzales is reported as available and Hanley isn't, i don't mean it as an insult, but i'll believe the media sources.

[Dojji]

Well you're ignoring the stats adjustment from Petco to Fenway.

I just don't believe it's going to be as big as you claim.


And as long as Gonzales is reported as available and Hanley isn't, i don't mean it as an insult, but i'll believe the media sources.

That's reasonable, but Florida certainly has at least as much motive to trade Hanley as Hoyer does to move his best player. And with the Marlins, you can load some quantity to take the edge off the quality.

[Dipre]

I just don't believe it's going to be as big as you claim.

Consider this:

Adrian Gonzales home/away splits:

Home: .244/.413/.446 .859 OPS

Away: .306/.402/.643 1.045 OPS.

You don't think he would massively improve on those numbers at Fenway enough to justify a statistical progression even if he regresses on the road?



That's reasonable, but Florida certainly has at least as much motive to trade Hanley as Hoyer does to move his best player. And with the Marlins, you can load some quantity to take the edge off the quality.

My point on the issue is, that unless there is some sort of indicator as to Hanley's availability, i wouldn't count on him as a trade target.

[Dojji]

I don't think you can look at the road numbers of someone who plays in the same division as Coors' Field and assume that he'll play to that level. It'd be nice, you know I'd love to see it happen, but I'm loath to count on it.

[Dipre]

I don't think you can look at the road numbers of someone who plays in the same division as Coors' Field and assume that he'll play to that level. It'd be nice, you know I'd love to see it happen, but I'm loath to count on it.

AT&T Park, Dodger Stadium, Chase Field, Petco Park, Coors Field Vs. Fenway Park, New Yankee Stadium, Rogers Centre, Camden Yard, Tropicana Field.

Don't see the big difference. Three pitcher's parks/Two Hitters Park in the NL West Versus Three Hitter's parks/Two Neutral parks in the AL East, so i don't really follow where you're coming from.

[Emmz]

Yeah, if I were a hitter, I think the AL East is about where you wanna be. Coors is probably the best hitters park, but Fenway, NYS, and Camden Yards are VERY hitter-friendly as well. Also, AT&T, Dodger, and Petco are three of the biggest pitchers parks in the league. He spends well over half his games in pitchers parks, and not to mention, against the likes of some very, very good pitching. (And at Chase, against Haren and Webb too).

[Dipre]

Yeah, if I were a hitter, I think the AL East is about where you wanna be. Coors is probably the best hitters park, but Fenway, NYS, and Camden Yards are VERY hitter-friendly as well. Also, AT&T, Dodger, and Petco are three of the biggest pitchers parks in the league. He spends well over half his games in pitchers parks, and not to mention, against the likes of some very, very good pitching. (And at Chase, against Haren and Webb too).

Dan Haren, Brandon Webb, Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, Clayton Kershaw, Chad Billingsley, Ubaldo Jimenez, among some other pretty good-elite pitchers pitch in the NL West.

[Dojji]

You could come up with 6-7 really talented pitchers in every division though. Except maybe the AL West 'cuz they only have 4 teams.

[Dipre]

You could come up with 6-7 really talented pitchers in every division though. Except maybe the AL West 'cuz they only have 4 teams.

Oh but of course, you are absolutely correct, the point was that, even though the AL East probably has better pitching, there is still some high level-elite pitching in the NL West.

[Emmz]

You could come up with 6-7 really talented pitchers in every division though. Except maybe the AL West 'cuz they only have 4 teams.

Those are good-to-elite pitchers though. Lincecum, Cain, Kershaw, Webb, Haren, etc could all easily contend for a Cy Young award. Also, name 6 pitchers of THAT quality in every division, and you have yourself an argument.

[Emmz]

Oh but of course, you are absolutely correct, the point was that, even though the AL East probably has better pitching, there is still some high level-elite pitching in the NL West.

I don't see it in the AL Central either. I can only think of Verlander and being in the same league as those mentioned, but while I'm sure there are others, I can't think of any more right now. Help me out.

[Dojji]

I don't see it in the AL Central either. I can only think of Verlander and being in the same league as those mentioned, but while I'm sure there are others, I can't think of any more right now. Help me out.

Greinke.

[Dipre]

Greinke.

Buehrle, Floyd and Danks are pretty good too.

[Dojji]

I'd forgotten about Buehrle. Floyd had an off year. Good call on Danks though.

[Dipre]

I'd forgotten about Buehrle. Floyd had an off year. Good call on Danks though.

Floyd's still pretty good though. A 4.06 ERA and 193.0 innings is nothing to sneeze at.

[Dojji]

Indeed, but it's hardly elite.

Anyway, I was nosing around -- I mentioned this in the other thread -- and I noticed that Paul Konerko is in about the right position to be an ideal one year rental. Be a half decent fit at Fenway, too. Not Adrian Gonzalez, but not a train wreck either. Maybe if the Max Ramirez thing falls through we can throw them Lowell and some prospects and bring him along.

[Keeper]

Greinke and Verlander are the cream of the crop, and the Sox pitchers already mentioned are all good (my man crush on Buehrle is well-documented). I also like Baker a lot, even though he had a bit of a down year. Blackburn is a good guy to have at the back end of a rotation. Slowey, Porcello, and Scherzer each have a lot of potential. And I think Peavy will soon be joining Greinke and Verlander as one of the elite pitchers in that division. Now that Cliff Lee is gone, the Indians have no one. Pretty sad what they have to work with.

I like Konerko a lot, but if you want him you can have him. His best years are behind him. Still, he's a dead pull hitter, so he probably wouldn't do too bad at Fenway.

[Dipre]

Greinke and Verlander are the cream of the crop, and the Sox pitchers already mentioned are all good (my man crush on Buehrle is well-documented). I also like Baker a lot, even though he had a bit of a down year. Blackburn is a good guy to have at the back end of a rotation. Slowey, Porcello, and Scherzer each have a lot of potential. And I think Peavy will soon be joining Greinke and Verlander as one of the elite pitchers in that division.

I like Konerko a lot, but if you want him you can have him. His best years are behind him. Still, he's a dead pull hitter, so he probably wouldn't do too bad at Fenway.

Memories of 2005 still haunt me........

[Keeper]

Konerko was a beast that postseason. As was Crede.

[Dipre]

Konerko was a beast that postseason. As was Crede.

Garland. How times change.

[Emmz]

Garland had such a great year. The 2005 White Sox pretty much dismantled everyone that year. Good offense, great pitching. No one had a chance, and they absolutely shit on my two favorite teams (Twins and Red Sox).

[Keeper]

Garland had such a great year. The 2005 White Sox pretty much dismantled everyone that year. Good offense, great pitching. No one had a chance, and they absolutely shit on my two favorite teams (Twins and Red Sox).

Everything came together in '05 for the Sox. They got career years from Garland, Contreras, Politte, Hermanson, and Cotts. Buehrle also had his best or second best season.

Everyone thought Garcia and Everett were through. Their closer from the year before shit the bed, and luckily they got Jenks off waivers. The Big Hurt got hurt, and it ended up not hurting them. Iguchi had a great rookie season.

Podsednik played out of his mind in the postseason. And Blum and Hernandez, who hadn't done anything during the regular season, came up huge when it mattered most. They also got incredibly lucky with Pierzynski's "dropped third strike." They might have lost that game without his acting job, and then they would have been down 0-2 in the ALCS.

But everyone knows the biggest reason why they won it all that year was the starting pitching. Those guys were horses from April to October.

[flinch]

Derrick Lee would do the trick. I agree with Korneko for a year. We need someone. One more bat, tell me Theo will give us one more xmas present.

[Dipre]

Derrick Lee would do the trick. I agree with Korneko for a year. We need someone. One more bat, tell me Theo will give us one more xmas present.

I, for one, find it very unlikely that Derrek Lee and his .972 OPS are coming to Boston, specially since the Cubs have no replacement for the position.

[jacksonianmarch]

There is zero chance he comes to Boston since the Cubs view themselves as contenders. And Lee is their best player.

[TheMino007]

I would love Miggy Cabrera and would be fine with him instead of Gonzo. The Padres are asking for the moon right now, and they have every right too, they have no need to trade Gonzo and Hoyer knows the Sox farm system inside and out. I'd call up the Tigers and see what it would take to get Miggy. If it costs less in terms of prospects, do it. Of course... he is owed 20 million... Gonzo is making peanuts in comparison. The Red Sox will not go over the luxury tax cap, so I think Miggy is out of the question. Gonzo is the only option at this point that is truly what we need. I'm beginning to think this team stands pat for now, has Kotchman start at first and then they will explore a trade as the season progresses and Theo sees how everyone is doing. Right now I don't see the Sox overspending in trading for Gonzo, but come trade deadline and we are in the the thick of a playoff race, I could see him trading both Ells and Buc.

[jacksonianmarch]

The Tigers would ask for more for Cabrera. He's a better player than AdGon and he's younger IIRC

[Tyler Durden]

The Tigers would ask for more for Cabrera. He's a better player than AdGon and he's younger IIRC

I would argue that.

2009:

Gonzalez - 166 OPS+
Cabrera- 142 OPS+

Plus far better defense at 1st.

[Dipre]

I would argue that.

2009:

Gonzalez - 166 OPS+
Cabrera- 142 OPS+

Plus far better defense at 1st.

Lol you stole my post!

[Gom]

The Tigers would ask less for Cabrera, mainly because of salary.

How accurate is OPS+, by the way? I can't find anywhere that lists what the ballpark factor is.

[jacksonianmarch]

OPS+ is a useful stat when used sparingly. Both of these guys played in tough ballparks. But the Tigers play in the AL and get to face very tough rotations regularly. I understand the whole NL West aces, but the rest of those rotations suck. I find it very hard to believe that AdGon would be able to replicate Cabrera's #s in Tiger's Stadium. Plus, Cabrera has been playing at this level since 2004, while AdGon really exploded this past season

[Tyler Durden]

Lol you stole my post!

Cabrera has a dynamite bat. Great average, high OBP, power. It's close between them. They are neck and neck, but I'll take Gonzalez because of the glove, and because of Cabrera's off the field issues.

But I will say, I would like to see Gonzalez repeat what he did last season. He's obviously gotten better and better the last 3 seasons, but I would like to see him put up another ELITE season before I would give him the big bucks.

[Emmz]

I have no idea how Cabrera is better than Gonzalez... I don't see that at all.

[jacksonianmarch]

Look at the stats since 2004 and you decide

[Tyler Durden]

I have no idea how Cabrera is better than Gonzalez... I don't see that at all.

It's close. Cabrera has a better track record, but Gonzalez is getting better and better.

[Dipre]

OPS+ is a useful stat when used sparingly. Both of these guys played in tough ballparks. But the Tigers play in the AL and get to face very tough rotations regularly. I understand the whole NL West aces, but the rest of those rotations suck. I find it very hard to believe that AdGon would be able to replicate Cabrera's #s in Tiger's Stadium. Plus, Cabrera has been playing at this level since 2004, while AdGon really exploded this past season

Nope.

He has been posting beastly road OPS's since he reached the league.

Career .935 road OPS. He exploded a couple years ago, to the extent in which the ballpark would allow him to.

[Emmz]

OPS+ is a useful stat when used sparingly. Both of these guys played in tough ballparks. But the Tigers play in the AL and get to face very tough rotations regularly. I understand the whole NL West aces, but the rest of those rotations suck. I find it very hard to believe that AdGon would be able to replicate Cabrera's #s in Tiger's Stadium. Plus, Cabrera has been playing at this level since 2004, while AdGon really exploded this past season

High OPS+ for the past two seasons. Debate the stat all you want, but Gonzalez has been better for the past two years now. In fact, he faces some of the toughest pitching competition in the Major League, in comparison to the AL Central. Who does he have to face off against? Greinke maybe once, maybe twice a year? How about facing off against Billingsley, Kershaw, Lincecum, Cain, Haren, Webb, etc. regularly?

[Emmz]

It's close. Cabrera has a better track record, but Gonzalez is getting better and better.

Of course, I acknowledge that, but Gonzalez has had the edge the past two seasons, not just the explosion this season. Gonzalez has been improving, while Cabrera has been basically the same. Also, Gonzalez's OPS+ from this year is superior to any OPS+ from any of Cabrera's previous seasons.