Cassius Clay's ERA minus 2 abberation starts

[YanksHater213]

Take out his 2 starts where he allowed 7 runs, the guys ERA is 2.11

Is this real or is it deceptive?

Discuss.

[msubulldogs21]

Not to sound like a homer, but yeah, he's the real deal alright.

I'm not going to expect a Cy Young or anything, but I'm pretty stoked to see what he can do over the course of a full season. It appears he has finally figured it all out, kind of like Lester breaking out last year.

[jacksonianmarch]

He's a young pitcher with great stuff. He will throw up some stinkers and he will look dominant at times. Right now, he's on a really good run

[YanksHater213]

He's a young pitcher with great stuff. He will throw up some stinkers and he will look dominant at times. Right now, he's on a really good run

call me a homer if you want, but i wouldn't call 2 poor starts completely surrounded by great/good starts as a "good run"

[Youk Of The Nation]

I think he will win 25 games next season with an ERA slightly under 2.20, cure AIDS, discover a cheap and efficient method of cold fusion, broker peace between Israel and Palestine, colonize Mars, and disprove Einstein's Theory of Relativity. He will ultimately fail, however, to avert another losing season for the Detroit Lions.

[jacksonianmarch]

He had a run of shit last season which was my point. He may have turned a corner. But he is still essentially a rookie pitcher, meaning he is unpredictable

[msubulldogs21]

But he is still essentially a rookie pitcher, meaning he is unpredictable

I think you could've said this a month after he joined the big league club, but do you not expect him to go out there and pitch well now? I know I do. Of course he could still have some bad starts as could anyone, but I think we're past the point of wondering "Hmm. I hope Buchholz has his game tonight" status. Now we just expect it.

[Keeper]

He had a run of shit last season which was my point. He may have turned a corner. But he is still essentially a rookie pitcher, meaning he is unpredictable

I'm with Jacko on this one. It's too early to say he's arrived. Look at Joba.

[Dipre]

I'm with Jacko on this one. It's too early to say he's arrived. Look at Joba.

Joba never quite had a run of consistency like this one.

But he's not a finished product yet.

[example1]

I don't think Buchholz will go back to being a mediocre pitcher again. His performance this year isn't coming out of nowhere; these results are much more on-par with what he has produced at every level than his poor starts last year were.

His command is much better and he really does have more confidence in his FB than he did last year or two years ago. He's added about 2mph to his FB and he's throwing his slider more and seems to understand how to best utilize his slider given his other weapons.

The kid is very, very good. There should be no doubt why his name was the first on every other team's list in trade talks.

The thing that has surprised me the most is how he's moved away from the strikeout and is pitching more to contact. His ability to change speeds will get him a lot of weak pop flies and groundballs and take a lot of his tendency to nibble away. I think his next step of development will be him adding the strikeout back into his repetoir in certain starts. I expect him to be a 200+ K pitcher within 2-3 seasons.

[Dipre]

I don't think Buchholz will go back to being a mediocre pitcher again. His performance this year isn't coming out of nowhere; these results are much more on-par with what he has produced at every level than his poor starts last year were.

His command is much better and he really does have more confidence in his FB than he did last year or two years ago. He's added about 2mph to his FB and he's throwing his slider more and seems to understand how to best utilize his slider given his other weapons.

The kid is very, very good. There should be no doubt why his name was the first on every other team's list in trade talks.

The thing that has surprised me the most is how he's moved away from the strikeout and is pitching more to contact. His ability to change speeds will get him a lot of weak pop flies and groundballs and take a lot of his tendency to nibble away. I think his next step of development will be him adding the strikeout back into his repetoir in certain starts. I expect him to be a 200+ K pitcher within 2-3 seasons.

Or like Lester, he could be a 200 K pitcher next year, the swing-and-miss stuff is there after all.

Right now, at least right now, Theo looks like a genius for not giving him up for Halladay.

[Gom]

Beware of pitchers who look good in March and September.

[Dojji]

Good thing Buchholz looked darn good in August, hmm?

[Gom]

Good thing Buchholz looked darn good in August, hmm?

He threw a no-hitter one September, remember?

You get the gist of what I'm saying.

[BoSox21]

He's on a run right now that no pitcher can keep up but he was brought along as a pitcher with ace potential and right now, he's pitching like an ace. Nothing deceptive about that.

[Jacoby_Ellsbury]

He's a young pitcher with great stuff. He will throw up some stinkers and he will look dominant at times. Right now, he's on a really good run
Table.

[Dojji]

I dunno, what he said was so general it might be a horoscope. I don't think this is worth the table.

[italstallianion]

Take out his 2 starts where he allowed 7 runs, the guys ERA is 2.11

Is this real or is it deceptive?

Discuss.

While I agree that Buchholz's numbers may be a little exaggerated due to the incredibly futility represented in a mere 2-3 starts, they cannot be ignored. Sure, on an aggregate level, even while including those horrific starts, his numbers are very f***** good. However, combining those 2 starts with some of his select starts from last year shows that he still has the ability to get his s*** pushed in.

I do like how he's been pitching and he shows great promise for future years, especially considering the fact that he's 24-25. With that said, we should probably wait until he has more than 200 career innings (and perhaps more than 200 innings in a season) before we herald him as the next big thing. Simply put, as much as I'd love to ignore those other starts as outliers, they did happen nonetheless. You can say "if he didn't have those 2 starts his ERA would be 2.11", but that's like saying "if my aunt had balls she'd be my uncle"

[Beaneater]

I second what Dipre said earlier. We are going to be sooooooo glad we didn't trade this kid.

[Rdsxmbnt]

One day I hope to meet another person in this world with a Buchholz jersey. I think that day will be coming soon

[PWNdroia]

I was once bashing this guy and now I'm praising him. I assumed I would be in due time.

[RWTP24]

Clay is going to be one of the best pitchers in the league. He is showing it now and I have no doubt he will in the playoffs as well.

Also, Joba does not even have half of Buchholz talent. Don't even go there.

[BoSox21]

Also, Joba does not even have half of Buchholz talent. Don't even go there.

http://i179.photobucket.com/albums/w294/madpunk0184/HomerSimpson.jpg

[PWNdroia]

Clay is going to be one of the best pitchers in the league. He is showing it now and I have no doubt he will in the playoffs as well.

Also, Joba does not even have half of Buchholz talent. Don't even go there.

Joba's greatest talent is throwing at heads and acting like nothing has happened...

[Rdsxmbnt]

http://i179.photobucket.com/albums/w294/madpunk0184/HomerSimpson.jpg

it appears Bosox21 tried to "go there" and got firmly denied

[Jacoby_Ellsbury]

it appears Bosox21 tried to "go there" and got firmly denied
:lol:

[Jacoby_Ellsbury]

One day I hope to meet another person in this world with a Buchholz jersey. I think that day will be coming soon
Is a t-shirt good enough?

[PWNdroia]

Well, I wasn't saying he was a bad pitcher, I'm just saying he throws at a lot of heads.

But I do agree that I think Buchholz will be the better or prime pitcher in the end.

[RWTP24]

Joba's greatest talent is throwing at heads and acting like nothing has happened...

I agree.

Joba has started 30 games this year and has 8 wins and 6 losses with an ERA well about .400.

Buchholz has started 14 games and has 7 wins and 3 losses with an ERA .320.

[BoSox21]

Joba doesn't have HALF the talent Clay has? Are you insane? Seriously, take the pink hat off for a second and really think about what you type.

[PWNdroia]

Joba doesn't have HALF the talent Clay has? Are you insane? Seriously, take the pink hat off for a second and really think about what you type.

I do agree that Joba is a great pitcher, but I think Clay will be better.

[RWTP24]

Joba doesn't have HALF the talent Clay has? Are you insane? Seriously, take the pink hat off for a second and really think about what you type.

Yes, that is what I really said. I think Joba is very over rated. I think Joba is a great set up man or maybe a closer one day, but not a SP.

[BoSox21]

I do agree that Joba is a great pitcher, but I think Clay will be better.

I'm not taking exception to that thought. I'm taking exception to the "Joba has half the talent Clay has"

[Dipre]

Saying Joba has half the talent of Clay is a fucking joke.

Joba'll most likely end up as good, if not better, than Buch.

Stop it.

[RWTP24]

Look at his numbers.

You stop it!

[italstallianion]

Clay is going to be one of the best pitchers in the league. He is showing it now and I have no doubt he will in the playoffs as well.

Also, Joba does not even have half of Buchholz talent. Don't even go there.


Wow. Jacko is going to have to try really hard to beat this to continue his streak of consecutive "dumbest post of the day"

[RWTP24]

Wow. Jacko is going to have to try really hard to beat this to continue his streak of consecutive "dumbest post of the day"

Well, good think it is MO. I think Joba sucks as a starter. Hell go look at his stats. But I also think he is a great set up man.

[BoSox21]

Look at his numbers.

You stop it!

You can't make a serious argument based on two fucking months of baseball especially when both have had major league appearances for the last three years. Up until the last two months, Joba has been CLEARLY better than Clay and I swear, if you bring up the fact that Buchholz threw a no-hitter two years ago, I'll hunt you down.

[RWTP24]

You can't make a serious argument based on two fucking months of baseball especially when both have had major league appearances for the last three years. Up until the last two months, Joba has been CLEARLY better than Clay and I swear, if you bring up the fact that Buchholz threw a no-hitter two years ago, I'll hunt you down.

Yeah, but Clay threw a no-hitter two years ago. Has Joba? :lol::harhar::lol::harhar:

Sorry, I had too.

I am just fucking with you guys because I really hate him. I think he is a prick for many reasons. Joba is a good pitch, but with that said, I really don't like him as a starter.

[Keeper]

It's entirely possible Buchholz will wind up being the better starter, as Joba hasn't demonstrated he can pitch a season without running on fumes. For the record, neither has Buchholz. But to say that Joba doesn't even have half of Buchholz's talent is ridiculously homer-ish. Joba has the stuff to be a dominant pitcher.

[brunansky_caught_the_ball]

Take out his 2 starts where he allowed 7 runs, the guys ERA is 2.11

Is this real or is it deceptive?

Discuss.

Thats like saying "if you take away 2004 and 2007 the Red Sox are a joke of an organization."

It just doesnt make sense.

If you are going to arbitrarily take away his two worst starts, then you must take away his two best starts.

That would give us a better indication of what he REALLY is.

[Dipre]

Thats like saying "if you take away 2004 and 2007 the Red Sox are a joke of an organization."

It just doesnt make sense.

If you are going to arbitrarily take away his two worst starts, then you must take away his two best starts.

That would give us a better indication of what he REALLY is.

Dude.

All he's trying to say is that the kid's been stellar.

[brunansky_caught_the_ball]

I definitely agree. He has been stellar.

But he has had some bad starts.

[PWNdroia]

Surprisingly, Buchholz has been great. Can't disagree here.

[TheKilo]

One day I hope to meet another person in this world with a Buchholz jersey. I think that day will be coming soon

I have a jersey T shirt does that count?

[jacksonianmarch]

Clay Buchholz has really looked good and a lot of it has to do with his mastery of the changeup. When he came up 2 yrs ago, he had success with the knee buckling curve and the heater, but he was inconsistent with that curveball. Now, that changeup is his best off speed weapon that he locates with near pinpoint accuracy. It makes him more consistent. And when the curve is on, he's damn near unhittable. A good move by Theo retaining him. If he can continue to have the feel for that changeup, he's gonna be a serious pain in the ass

[jacksonianmarch]

Clay is going to be one of the best pitchers in the league. He is showing it now and I have no doubt he will in the playoffs as well.

Also, Joba does not even have half of Buchholz talent. Don't even go there.

Really? Are you sure about that? Buchholz mastered the changeup first. Buchholz has better control. And Buchholz has finally become more receptive to the suggestions by the sox pitching staff. Buchholz has the stuff to be a top of the rotation pitcher. That being said, raw talent wise, I dont think you can make a case that Buchholz has twice the talent that Joba does. Cause having the capability to throw 99mph and have one of the best sliders I have ever seen is not something to scoff at. Buchholz is more refined as a pitcher right now. But Joba has a 1-2 punch that very few pitchers have had. If you give Joba some time and some endurance, I have a feeling both will be very important to their respective teams. I do, however, think that Buchholz has surpassed Joba in the short term based upon his mastery of the changeup.

[Dojji]

You guys knew that endurance would be an issue for Joba going in. You can't just assume he'll develop endurance when that was one of the biggest questionmarks going in. That and his physical conditioning (or lack thereof) were a big reason why a lot of people were slotting him for the bullpen.

BTW I think you're wrong. Buchholz' fastball command has been the big thing. The big knock on Clay when he was coming up througgh the minors was that his fastball might be his third or fourth best pitch and that the command wasn't yet there -- in other words he was getting through the minors mostly on his dominant offspeed stuff. That caught up with him last year in the bigs. Now he's made the adjustments needed.

Old Number One sets up everything else. You can throw your offspeed stuff mostly out of the zone IF you're getting your fastball over the plate for called strikes. Buchholz has done that, forcing hitters to take his fastball seriously, in turn allowing him to set up the change to devestating effect. Also better fastball accuracy is allowing him to throw harder. He lit up the gun at 97 a couple times according to Pitch f/x in the Kansas City start, and throw those pitches for strikes, and was sitting comfortably at 94-95 throughout that start.

In other words, painting the zone with his fastball has pretty much made him the pitcher we all saw his potential to be.

[example1]

Really? Are you sure about that? Buchholz mastered the changeup first. Buchholz has better control. And Buchholz has finally become more receptive to the suggestions by the sox pitching staff. Buchholz has the stuff to be a top of the rotation pitcher. That being said, raw talent wise, I dont think you can make a case that Buchholz has twice the talent that Joba does. Cause having the capability to throw 99mph and have one of the best sliders I have ever seen is not something to scoff at. Buchholz is more refined as a pitcher right now. But Joba has a 1-2 punch that very few pitchers have had. If you give Joba some time and some endurance, I have a feeling both will be very important to their respective teams. I do, however, think that Buchholz has surpassed Joba in the short term based upon his mastery of the changeup.

I'm not sure how much you've watched Buchholz this year. Here's his fangraphs page: http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=3543&position=P#pitchtype

You will notice that he actually throws his curveball a little less than half the amount that he threw it in previous years. He has augmented that with a nearly 8% jump in fastballs and a 2% jump in sliders (which seems very low given what I've seen from him).

I think his slider will end up being the pitch that he uses more for throwing strikes, and the curve will be something he can unleash a few times per-game when hitters aren't expecting it. His slider doesn't have nearly Joba's movement, but he throws it up and in to righties and they tend to take it for a strike, backing them off the plate.

He's got better velocity than Joba (somehow) and a better starter's frame. His minor league numbers are excellent and he's obviously able to put together strings of ace-like performances at the MLB level. I think he's the better potential SP of the two moving forward (as you acknowledge as well).


You guys knew that endurance would be an issue for Joba going in. You can't just assume he'll develop endurance when that was one of the biggest questionmarks going in. That and his physical conditioning (or lack thereof) were a big reason why a lot of people were slotting him for the bullpen.

I agree that the Yankees knew about Joba's durability concerns. In their defense, their move to put the more "obvious" (my word) starter in the pen has paid off big time this year. Phil Hughes is a tremendous pitcher and I still believe he will be one of the best starting pitchers in baseball in 5 years. He and Joba can BOTH be starting pitchers and they probably should be moving forward if the Yanks want to maxamize their rotation. Hughes will have tremendous confidence that he can get hitters out, and he's still quite young. Joba, IMO, is their closer of the future and he's a formidable one at that.


Buchholz' fastball command has been the big thing

This is right. It is easy to see the difference. He's doing what Roy Halladay has done so well throughout his career (and what makes him so frustrating to hit against, I imagine). He's throwing easy strike-one FB with movement to get ahead in the count. I always get the feeling watching Halladay that he's just tossing it in there and letting his cutter do the work. Buchholz uses more of a 2-seamer, but the movement he's getting is really tremendous and is enough to keep hitters from sitting on the straight FB on the first pitch, or any time he's behind. That command, mixed with his jump in velocity (up 2.4 mph from two seasons ago, on average) has really made him dominant IMO.

[jacksonianmarch]

You guys knew that endurance would be an issue for Joba going in. You can't just assume he'll develop endurance when that was one of the biggest questionmarks going in. That and his physical conditioning (or lack thereof) were a big reason why a lot of people were slotting him for the bullpen.

BTW I think you're wrong. Buchholz' fastball command has been the big thing. The big knock on Clay when he was coming up througgh the minors was that his fastball might be his third or fourth best pitch and that the command wasn't yet there -- in other words he was getting through the minors mostly on his dominant offspeed stuff. That caught up with him last year in the bigs. Now he's made the adjustments needed.

Old Number One sets up everything else. You can throw your offspeed stuff mostly out of the zone IF you're getting your fastball over the plate for called strikes. Buchholz has done that, forcing hitters to take his fastball seriously, in turn allowing him to set up the change to devestating effect. Also better fastball accuracy is allowing him to throw harder. He lit up the gun at 97 a couple times according to Pitch f/x in the Kansas City start, and throw those pitches for strikes, and was sitting comfortably at 94-95 throughout that start.

In other words, painting the zone with his fastball has pretty much made him the pitcher we all saw his potential to be.

Pitchers develop endurance over time. It isnt a one season thing and it rarely is something you are drafted with. If that was the case, then people wouldnt be freaking out about pitch counts and innings counts. Joba has a good pitchers frame. He might not be that tall, but he is wide as the day is long, which should give him good torque without killing his shoulder. But I honestly think the yankees took the right approach with him and dialed him back a little bit from the getgo. We saw last yr that he has the capability to throw mid to high 90s as a starter, but he doesnt have the endurance at this time to do it full time. He showed in game 1 of the sox series that he could reach that point if he needs it, but he doesnt always need it. That being said, people keep forgetting that Joba is truly new to the whole starting pitching full time thing. He was at a Juco, then went to Nebraska where injury woes limited his innings totals. Then he went to Tampa where a hamstring injury sidelined him for the first few weeks, then he throws something like 100 innings as a starter before being converted to the pen. Last yr, he starts in the pen, gets moved to the rotation, gets hurt and then gets converted back to the pen. This has really been the only yr that he has been healthy and starting the whole time. And is had been a really good yr for him until the end of July when the wheels started coming off. Long term, he has a good amount of work to do, but this has been a positive yr for him. He still needs kid gloves, but they can get a little looser for 2010. If the kid gloves work and he stays healthy, he is gonna be one of the best pitchers in the game within the next 3 yrs. If he doesnt, then this starting thing was a waste and the pen is where he belongs.

Now, the reason why I think this can work is tied into Hughes and the kids in the bullpen. Hughes this yr made the burden on the pen minimal. But when Hughes comes back to the rotation, there will be a hole to fill. It will start with Melancon and Robertson. Aceves slots into the Mendoza role, Coke into the lefty role and Marte hopefully into a quasi-setup role if his arm holds up. But either Melancon or Robertson need to take the next step and become setup quality arms. If they do, then nobody will be clamoring for Hughes or Joba to come back to the pen. If they dont, then expect the cries to be deafening.

In terms of Buchholz, I agree with the fastball command issue. But if you dont have a pitch behind that fastball that you can count on regularly, then you wont be much of a starter. When he was up in 2008, he was really a 2 pitch pitcher with the fastball and the curve. And if the curve wasnt on, he was easy to figure out. Sit dead red, take the off speed crap and lay into him. But now with that changeup, you cant do that. That makes the hitter respect the heater and allows him to throw it more often. It must look exactly like a heater out of the hand, cause the hitters look lost when he throws it.

[example1]

In terms of Buchholz, I agree with the fastball command issue. But if you dont have a pitch behind that fastball that you can count on regularly, then you wont be much of a starter. When he was up in 2008, he was really a 2 pitch pitcher with the fastball and the curve. And if the curve wasnt on, he was easy to figure out. Sit dead red, take the off speed crap and lay into him. But now with that changeup, you cant do that. That makes the hitter respect the heater and allows him to throw it more often. It must look exactly like a heater out of the hand, cause the hitters look lost when he throws it.

I guess my sense has always been that his changeup was the better developed pitch of the three that he threw, and his slider was nearly non-esixtent.

He threw his change 25.2% of the time in 2007, 23.6% in 2008 and 23.8% in 2009. Doesn't seem like a huge difference. His command of it may be better, but he's really just choosing when to throw it and is mixing his FB in a lot more.

It seems to me that in 2009 when he knows hitters are guessing FB he either throws the changeup or the slider, both of which have deception involved. The CB had such a dramatic difference in plane (as a almost "true" 12-to-6 pitch) that it was a dead giveaway, and slow enough to take. A changeup for a strike or a slider off the plate are both very difficult to lay off (as Joba shows with his slider).

Overall, I think your praise for Buchholz is well-placed. He's a different, more confident pitcher.

I think that combining a full season with new-Buchholz and new-Matsuzaka will improve this team dramatically next year.

[TheKilo]

I actually think the development of Buchholz's slider has been the biggest thing for him. It gave him a third pitch to throw when his curveball was coming around during the middle of this season. Statistically speaking it's been one of his more dominant pitches this season.

[example1]

I actually think the development of Buchholz's slider has been the biggest thing for him. It gave him a third pitch to throw when his curveball was coming around during the middle of this season. Statistically speaking it's been one of his more dominant pitches this season.

It's interesting, because fangraphs doesn't show it as a pitch he uses much more than he has in past years, but to me (and you apparently) it seems like a much more important part of his repetoir. I agree with you whole heartedly. It gives him that wrinkle that he can throw and a pitch in the mid-upper 80's to complement a 93-94 FB, and a lower 80's CH and CB. A great mix of speeds.

[Looch Ness Monster]

Buchholz is really HIT or really MISS.

[TheKilo]

Or, he had one bad start after a string of like 10 good ones in a row.

[Dojji]

Or, he had one bad start after a string of like 10 good ones in a row.

Bingo

[Dipre]

Or, he had one bad start after a string of like 10 good ones in a row.

Toronto was also due against him.

Really, a pitcher can't sustain such a run of dominance against a particular team.