Who Should Lead Off?

[Dutchy]

Ellsbury's doing just fine in the bottom of the order, and I like him there because it gives him more opportunities to steal bases. But Pedroia is doing a horrible job at leading off. He's hit only .221/.275/.316 in the leadoff spot as opposed to .328/.419/.423 when he bats second. So who should lead off?

Drew maybe? He sees over 4 pitches per plate appearances on average (12th in the majors) and has always been a good OBP guy. Youk sees more pitches per plate appearance than any other batter in the majors, but batting him leadoff would be a waste of his power. Or should the Red Sox move Ellsbury back there?

[Jacoby_Ellsbury]

Drew was my choice back in April when I was begging for a lineup change. He gets on base and is at least somewhat fast. Ellsbury would be best suited to batting 9th in this scenario, as he's already proved to be more effective at the bottom of the order, could easily be bumped up to 2nd base or further due to Drew's excellent OBP, and as such is a good threat to score with his speed.

Pedroia is best suited to bat 2nd or 3rd, IMO. His numbers in the 2 spot so far this season reflect that he could be somewhat productive hitting 3rd.

In a perfect world:
1. Drew
2. Youkilis
3. Pedroia
4. Bay
5. Ortiz
6. Lowell
7. Varitek
8. SS
9. Ellsbury

Welcome to the board, BTW.

[Coco's Disciples]

Drew gets my vote. He's got a .391 OBP even with the lowest BA he's had since 2002. As the average improves, the OBP will get over .400.

[Dutchy]

Drew was my choice back in April when I was begging for a lineup change. He gets on base and is at least somewhat fast. Ellsbury would be best suited to batting 9th in this scenario, as he's already proved to be more effective at the bottom of the order, could easily be bumped up to 2nd base or further due to Drew's excellent OBP, and as such is a good threat to score with his speed.

Pedroia is best suited to bat 2nd or 3rd, IMO. His numbers in the 2 spot so far this season reflect that he could be somewhat productive hitting 3rd.

In a perfect world:
1. Drew
2. Youkilis
3. Pedroia
4. Bay
5. Ortiz
6. Lowell
7. Varitek
8. SS
9. Ellsbury

Welcome to the board, BTW.

LOL, nice avatar. And thanks for the welcome

If I wrote out the lineup, it would probably look something like this at this point in the season.

1. Drew
2. Pedroia
3. Ortiz
4. Youkilis
5. Bay
6. Lowell
7. Ellsbury
8. Varitek
9. Green

But I wouldn't want Drew leading off against lefties. And I don't feel quite right about a guy slugging almost .500 being our leadoff hitter. I think Ellsbury is our ideal leadoff guy. And then Drew could break up all those righties in the middle of the order.

[Dutchy]

Drew gets my vote. He's got a .391 OBP even with the lowest BA he's had since 2002. As the average improves, the OBP will get over .400.

Even against lefties? And even though he's slugging almost .500?

I'm not disagreeing, just trying to start discussion.

[Coco's Disciples]

Even against lefties? And even though he's slugging almost .500?

I'm not disagreeing, just trying to start discussion.

He hasn't been bad against lefties this year: .375 OBP in 64 PA. Pedroia has been slightly better over his career against lefties, so it might be of benefit to hit him leadoff then. It's not a huge difference though. The slugging percentage isn't a deterrent to Drew hitting leadoff IMO.

Welcome to the site, I hope you stick around. You seem like you'll be a great contributor!

[bosoxgirl34]

i like pedroia at lead off....plus with drew at lead off with the way he has been playing it will just let him get out faster....

[Coco's Disciples]

i like pedroia at lead off....plus with drew at lead off with the way he has been playing it will just let him get out faster....

The way Drew has been playing? He has a .450+ OBP in June.

[Dutchy]

He hasn't been bad against lefties this year: .375 OBP in 64 PA. Pedroia has been slightly better over his career against lefties, so it might be of benefit to hit him leadoff then. It's not a huge difference though. The slugging percentage isn't a deterrent to Drew hitting leadoff IMO.

Welcome to the site, I hope you stick around. You seem like you'll be a great contributor!

You're right, his lefty/righty splits aren't all that dramatic this year. I wonder how much of that has to do with him getting days off against tough lefties though.

And thanks for the welcome. Everyone's been friendly so far!

[Dipre]

You're right, his lefty/righty splits aren't all that dramatic this year. I wonder how much of that has to do with him getting days off against tough lefties though.

And thanks for the welcome. Everyone's been friendly so far!

Drew gets on base no matter the quality of the pitcher.

Francona sits him against tough lefties to justify playing Baldelli basically.

Oh, and welcome to the board.

[Dutchy]

The way Drew has been playing? He has a .450+ OBP in June.

Yeah, I really don't get why people dislike Drew so much. I thought he was solid, even in his down year in 2007. He had a .370 OBP and played good defense. And last year he was one of only two guys in the AL who had a .400 OBP and .500 SLG. He basically carried us last June.

[TheKilo]

i like pedroia at lead off....plus with drew at lead off with the way he has been playing it will just let him get out faster....

Are you kidding me?

[bosoxgirl34]

okay but if you are just going to go by who should lead off by OBP lets put youk there.....drew stikes out to much to be there

[bosoxgirl34]

i dont dislike drew at all....i just dont believe he belongs in the lead off

[Dutchy]

okay but if you are just going to go by who should lead off by OBP lets put youk there.....drew stikes out to much to be there

Youkilis strikes out almost as much as Drew.

[bosoxgirl34]

but his OBP is about 60 points higher and i didnt really mean it like that...you guys were just talking like OBP is all that matters and if its true youk should be there

[Coco's Disciples]

i dont dislike drew at all....i just dont believe he belongs in the lead off

So why do you think Pedroia does?

[TheKilo]

but his OBP is about 60 points higher and i didnt really mean it like that...you guys were just talking like OBP is all that matters and if its true youk should be there

Well, what's the main goal for a hitter?

To not make an out.

What statistic measures how often batters don't make outs?

[Jacoby_Ellsbury]

And thanks for the welcome. Everyone's been friendly so far!
Only because you're new, before long you'll be able to witness the epic amounts of insanity that unfold here on an almost-daily basis.

[pedroia_the_destroyah53]

is OBP the only thing we should look at for who should lead off? we should be looking at basestealing,obp,BA,and maybe extra base hits?
If drew is the perfect lead off guy why has he rarely ever hit lead off for anyone?

Ellsbury is the prototype leadoff guy

[Coco's Disciples]

is OBP the only thing we should look at for who should lead off? we should be looking at basestealing,obp,BA,and maybe extra base hits?
If drew is the perfect lead off guy why has he rarely ever hit lead off for anyone?

Ellsbury is the prototype leadoff guy

OBP is most important for a leadoff hitter, and Ellsbury lacks it.

If he's the prototype leadoff guy, why isn't he hitting leadoff?

[Dipre]

is OBP the only thing we should look at for who should lead off? we should be looking at basestealing,obp,BA,and maybe extra base hits?
If drew is the perfect lead off guy why has he rarely ever hit lead off for anyone?

Ellsbury is the prototype leadoff guy

But he struggles at the leadoff spot because he can't seem to handle the diet of strikes pitchers serve him to keep him off base.

[Dutchy]

Ellsbury is the prototype leadoff guy

The same could be said about Pedroia, but neither one has done very well as a leadoff hitter. I bet by the end of the year though we'll have Ellsbury back in the leadoff spot and Ortiz back in the 3-hole.

[pedroia_the_destroyah53]

how about nick green as a leadoff guy

[Dipre]

how about nick green as a leadoff guy

How about no?

Green has come up big in some spots, but he's a really vulnerable hitter, and you want one of your toughest outs out of the leadoff spot.

[Dutchy]

how about nick green as a leadoff guy

:stop:

[Coco's Disciples]

how about nick green as a leadoff guy

No.

[Jacoby_Ellsbury]

is OBP the only thing we should look at for who should lead off? we should be looking at basestealing,obp,BA,and maybe extra base hits?
If drew is the perfect lead off guy why has he rarely ever hit lead off for anyone?

Ellsbury is the prototype leadoff guy
Because most baseball managers (read: baseball traditionalists/wisdom fountains) actually believe that base stealing is a required skill for a leadoff man. In other words, their theories are in agreement with yours about what constitutes a leadoff man. When some old-time baseball guzzard looks at J.D. Drew, haven't seen Drew batting leadoff.

[pedroia_the_destroyah53]

Jacoby Ellsbury the other night against the nats got on 1st stole 2nd and took third on a sac fly...how many other guys on the team could do that...not drew...i think baserunning is getting very underrated here

[Jacoby_Ellsbury]

How about no?

Green has come up big in some spots, but he's a really vulnerable hitter, and you want one of your toughest outs out of the leadoff spot.


:stop:


No.

[Jacoby_Ellsbury]

Jacoby Ellsbury the other night against the nats got on 1st stole 2nd and took third on a sac fly...how many other guys on the team could do that...not drew...i think baserunning is getting very underrated here
So?

[Dipre]

Jacoby Ellsbury the other night against the nats got on 1st stole 2nd and took third on a sac fly...how many other guys on the team could do that...not drew...i think baserunning is getting very underrated here

Not underrated, but overshadowed by the importance of OBP, you can't steal first, and you can't score if you don't get there.

[Dutchy]

Not underrated, but overshadowed by the importance of OBP, you can't steal first, and you can't score if you don't get there.

This.

[pedroia_the_destroyah53]

lets figure out who the best 5 or so leadoff hitters are in the game...i think there is a reason that after over a hundred years of baseball the speedy guys are at the top of the lineup...if its JUST these traditionalists or whatever that believe that guys like drew shouldnt lead off then why dont more guys like drew lead off?

[Dutchy]

lets figure out who the best 5 or so leadoff hitters are in the game...i think there is a reason that after over a hundred years of baseball the speedy guys are at the top of the lineup...if its just these traditionalists or whatever that believe that guys like drew should lead off then why dont more guys like drew lead off?

Because Drew would be a 3-5 hitter on most teams.

[pedroia_the_destroyah53]

So?

are you being a dick for a reason or just cuzzz

[Coco's Disciples]

are you being a dick for a reason or just cuzzz

He's right. Besides the fact that your example was only one sample, you want a guy with a better chance to get on base to get the most ABs.

[Dipre]

are you being a dick for a reason or just cuzzz

This is going places.

He was just asking for a legitimate explanation, sir.

[pedroia_the_destroyah53]

He's right. Besides the fact that your example was only one sample, you want a guy with a better chance to get on base to get the most ABs.


well then i guess the conversation is over guys...cuz the guy with the best chance to get on base isnt pedroia, drew or ellsbury...


its youk

[Jacoby_Ellsbury]

are you being a dick for a reason or just cuzzz
How am I being a dick exactly?


Explain how Ellsbury stealing 2nd and taking 3rd on a sac fly is something that you could use to justify him being a leadoff hitter? He's already proven that he can't handle the way pitchers treat him in the leadoff spot, and that the way they treat him in his current spot allows him to get on base more, since his sub-par bat isn't getting molested by pitchers pounding the strike zone.


Solution: bat him 9th, best of both worlds... he can get the more Ellsbury-friendly pitch treatment, and having guys like Drew and Youk (with their OBPs) follow him up can help move him into scoring position, where his speed then, and only then, becomes a huge asset.

[Coco's Disciples]

well then i guess the conversation is over guys...cuz the guy with the best chance to get on base isnt pedroia, drew or ellsbury...


its youk

Youk is also one of the two guys with the best chances to drive runs in. Seriously, what lineup do you want?

[Jacoby_Ellsbury]

well then i guess the conversation is over guys...cuz the guy with the best chance to get on base isnt pedroia, drew or ellsbury...


its youk
Youk is also a main source of power for this team.

[Dutchy]

Youk is also one of the two guys with the best chances to drive runs in. Seriously, what lineup do you want?

I wonder what would happen if we clinched home field advantage in September and Tito decided to do an experiment and make a lineup based solely on OBP. It would look something like:

Youkilis
Bay
Drew
Pedroia
Lugo
Ellsbury
Varitek
Lowell
Ortiz

[Coco's Disciples]

^ Sick lineup right there.

[Dutchy]

I don't think Youkilis belongs in the discussion because he's a .379/.549/.672 hitter with runners in scoring position. I want to maximum the chance of hitters being on base in front of him.

[Dutchy]

^ Sick lineup right there.

If Lugo goes on a hot streak, we could even make him our 3 or 4 hitter!

[Coco's Disciples]

I don't think Youkilis belongs in the discussion because he's a .379/.549/.672 hitter with runners in scoring position. I want to maximum the chance of hitters being on base in front of him.

Agree.


If Lugo goes on a hot streak, we could even make him our 3 or 4 hitter!

Let's just go back to 2007 and hit him leadoff. He is fast.

[pedroia_the_destroyah53]

How am I being a dick exactly?


Explain how Ellsbury stealing 2nd and taking 3rd on a sac fly is something that you could use to justify him being a leadoff hitter? He's already proven that he can't handle the way pitchers treat him in the leadoff spot, and that the way they treat him in his current spot allows him to get on base more, since his sub-par bat isn't getting molested by pitchers pounding the strike zone.


Solution: bat him 9th, best of both worlds... he can get the more Ellsbury-friendly pitch treatment, and having guys like Drew and Youk (with their OBPs) follow him up can help move him into scoring position, where his speed then, and only then, becomes a huge asset.


well for one i didnt understand what you were saying "so" to. i supposed you could have explained like you just did. i dont think saying so leaves anyone with much to say...

and what i described is a situation i would love to see from him IN the leadoff hole even though i agree he isnt the same hitter there as he has been lower in the lineup.

Ellsbury has shown flashes of what i would call "prototypical leadoff hitter ability" only problem is he only does it in the 7 or 8 hole. I realize that was only one sample but thats what id like to see out of a leadoff guy...oh and what if drews OBP is mostly because of our great lineup and he wouldnt be the same in the leadoff hole?similar to ellsbury thriving at the end of the lineup

[Coco's Disciples]

Drew's OBP is not because of our lineup. Look at his career stats.

[Dutchy]

In case anyone was wondering, the three guys leading the majors in OPS with RISP are Youkilis (1.221), Pujols (1.217) and Bay (1.163). So I think it's pretty safe to say that Youkilis and Bay belong somewhere in the 3-5 hitters of our lineup.

[Dutchy]

well for one i didnt understand what you were saying "so" to. i supposed you could have explained like you just did. i dont think saying so leaves anyone with much to say...

and what i described is a situation i would love to see from him IN the leadoff hole even though i agree he isnt the same hitter there as he has been lower in the lineup.

Ellsbury has shown flashes of what i would call "prototypical leadoff hitter ability" only problem is he only does it in the 7 or 8 hole. I realize that was only one sample but thats what id like to see out of a leadoff guy...oh and what if drews OBP is mostly because of our great lineup and he wouldnt be the same in the leadoff hole?similar to ellsbury thriving at the end of the lineup

I think that Ellsbury is the ideal choice to be our leadoff guy IF he can get his OBP over .370. He's doing fine where he is right now though, so I'd let him buy. Let him get his hits and stolen bases in the bottom of the order and build up his confidence. If he does well enough, promote him to leadoff. If not, he can make stuff happen with his speed at the bottom of the order where there's more of a need for small ball.

[pedroia_the_destroyah53]

johnny damons career OBP 355 ellsburys...347 how'd damon do as a leadoff hitter for us...since thats all were looking at

[Coco's Disciples]

I think that Ellsbury is the ideal choice to be our leadoff guy IF he can get his OBP over .370.

This probably isn't going to happen.

[Dutchy]

This probably isn't going to happen.

Call me crazy, but I think it will. He was always a good OBP guy in the minors (.389). When he came up in 2007, his OBP was .394. At the beginning of 2008, it was above .384 through May and then pitchers starting pitching to him differently and he went into a serious slump. I think he's made the adjustment to pitchers now and his OBP has been on the rise lately. It was .320 in April, .346 in May and now .413 in June.

[pedroia_the_destroyah53]

would you rather have a leadoff guy that goes 0-2 with 3 walks or one that goes 2-4 with one walk, a 2b, and a 3b their obp is the same but the guy with the XBH has a "better" chance to score doesnt he?

assuming they actually are on base 3 times each no fielders choices or anything like that

[Dutchy]

would you rather have a leadoff guy that goes 0-2 with 3 walks or one that goes 2-4 with one walk, a 2b, and a 3b their obp is the same but the guy with the XBH has a "better" chance to score doesnt he?

What are you trying to say, our best power hitter should be our leadoff guy?

[Jacoby_Ellsbury]

would you rather have a leadoff guy that goes 0-2 with 3 walks or one that goes 2-4 with one walk, a 2b, and a 3b their obp is the same but the guy with the XBH has a "better" chance to score doesnt he?

assuming they actually are on base 3 times each no fielders choices or anything like that
What good is it if said player is counting on Nick Green to knock him in?

[pedroia_the_destroyah53]

no because power guys dont hit alot of triples im just trying to prove something....obviously that would just be one sample so i should shoot down your opinions because of it right?

[Dutchy]

no because power guys dont hit alot of triples im just trying to prove something....obviously that would just be one sample so i should shoot down your opinions because of it right?

I don't get what you're trying to prove though. I'd rather have the the leadoff hitter that's getting into scoring position but neither Ellbury or Pedroia were/are doing that in the leadoff spot.

I'm not saying Ellsbury doesn't belong in the leadoff spot, I just think he needs to get his OBP up in order to hit there. Ellsbury had a .332 OBP in the leadoff spot this year. Pedroia's is barely above .300 in that spot.

[pedroia_the_destroyah53]

im saying that drew is not the answer and i dont understand why he ever would be...the important thing is that we are winning, right? why switch anything

[Coco's Disciples]

would you rather have a leadoff guy that goes 0-2 with 3 walks or one that goes 2-4 with one walk, a 2b, and a 3b their obp is the same but the guy with the XBH has a "better" chance to score doesnt he?

assuming they actually are on base 3 times each no fielders choices or anything like that

Which would you rather have in the middle of the order?

[Dutchy]

im saying that drew is not the answer and i dont understand why he ever would be...the important thing is that we are winning, right? why switch anything

Did you say the same about Ortiz when he wasn't hitting in the 3-hole? In a perfect world, I wouldn't like Drew leading off either. I think he's a valuable power hitter who could bat in between Bay and Lowell. But Pedroia isn't getting the job done in the leadoff spot. His .221 AVG, .590 OPS batting leadoff is on par with Ortiz when he was struggling.

[pedroia_the_destroyah53]

i dont think leadoff is as important as the 3 hole tho is it? i mean the 3 guy can get RBI with nobody on base and typically a leadoff guy cant. and the 3 guy is counted on more for RBI then the 1 guy...OBP alone cant win you anything

[Dipre]

i dont think leadoff is as important as the 3 hole tho is it? i mean the 3 guy can get RBI with nobody on base and typically a leadoff guy cant. and the 3 guy is counted on more for RBI then the 1 guy...OBP alone cant win you anything

The entire basis of the Red Sox offense is OBP.

Just sayin'.

[Dutchy]

i dont think leadoff is as important as the 3 hole tho is it? i mean the 3 guy can get RBI with nobody on base and typically a leadoff guy cant. and the 3 guy is counted on more for RBI then the 1 guy...OBP alone cant win you anything

Most of the time the leadoff guy needs someone to drive them in, just like most of the time the middle of the order guys need someone to drive in. We can't count on solo home runs as the only source of offense for the team. The more people we can get on base for Youkilis and Bay (statistically the best hitters in the AL with runners in scoring position) the more runs we'll theoretically score. And statistically, Drew gets on base more than Ellsbury or Pedroia (especially when those latter two are in the leadoff spot) so I think AT THIS POINT IN THE SEASON, he'd make the better leadoff hitter. I don't care if Ellsbury's fast when his OBP is .320 as a leadoff hitter compared to Drew and his potential .380 OBP at the top of the order.

[TheKilo]

The entire basis of the Red Sox offense is OBP.

Just sayin'.

What does this mean?

[cobra24]

i dont think leadoff is as important as the 3 hole tho is it? i mean the 3 guy can get RBI with nobody on base and typically a leadoff guy cant. and the 3 guy is counted on more for RBI then the 1 guy...OBP alone cant win you anything

well if your lead off doesnt get on then how do you think your number 3 hitting is going to get RBI's?

[The_Destroyah]

I agree that you want your leadoff hitter to be speedy guy but if you cant hit the tough pitches that the leadoff man is bound to get then it doesnt matter, which is why moving Ellsbury to the 9 hole is a great idea: he gets better pitches to hit and is still on base for the guys with the power which would include Drew batting next with some pop and then Papi, Bay, and Youk taking the 3-6 holes it makes perfect sense until Ellsbury sees some more pitches and can bring up that OBP to at least floating around .370.

No one said Drew was a permanent fix but the guy is a versatile hitter he will get the job done anywhere in the line up

oh btw im loving your signatur Dutchy

[BoSox21]

the entire point of the Red Sox offense isn't necessarily to set up RISP for the middle of the order, it's to keep the line moving as much as possible. taking that into account, I think Drew at the top works best