Catch-All Papelbon Thread

[example1]

We need a catch-all Papelbon thread (searched 3 pages, couldn't find one). I wanted to ask specifically:

Where has Papelbon's splitter gone? Can anyone fill me in about some decision not to use it anymore?

Pitch f/x doesn't have a single recorded split in 2009:

http://www.fangraphs.com/pitchfxo.aspx?playerid=5975&position=P&pitch=FS

or it says he's throwing it 10.3% of the time, exactly the same as his slider. F/X seems confused. It was his best secondary pitch and he's not using it... any ideas where it has gone?

[SCM33]

it seems hes been behind in a lot of counts and battling back. As closers go, they never want to be beat on a secondary pitch, maybe this is the reason we have not seen it much, because hes always falling behind in counts.

[TheKilo]

His mechanics are out of whack. His walk rate has more than doubled since last season.

I'm concerned about an arm injury.

[Dipre]

His mechanics are out of whack. His walk rate has more than doubled since last season.

I'm concerned about an arm injury.

I think he's just failing to repeat his delivery consistently.

It wouldn't be shocking, since his mechanics are quite high-maintenance.

[bostonule25]

it's because tek is catching him now when Cash did he threw more splitters

[Coco's Disciples]

^ Is that actually true?

[ms_sox]

There's been some articles where Pap said he's been changing his mechanics on purpose to try and ensure his long term longevity. ie, I don't think he has injury now, but he's looking to avoid potential injury by finding other ways to toss that aren't as hard on his arm.

Maybe whatever he's doing ... isn't working very well ...

[BoSox21]

yea, I saw an article about that. He said he altered his mechanics so his legs absorb more of the punishment of his delivery as opposed to his arm. Setting himself up for that big FA pay day....

[Dipre]

yea, I saw an article about that. He said he altered his mechanics so his legs absorb more of the punishment of his delivery as opposed to his arm. Setting himself up for that big FA pay day....

Or current season FAIL apparently.

[WhiskeyBreath]

His control is very sporadic. I don't know if it's injury, mechanics or what but if he doesn't get it back he can't be the insanely dominant closer that he can be.

[BSN07]

Anyone see the Sox dealing Paps in a blockbuster type deal? Hypothetically, what does everyone see the Sox getting in return?

I really like him, but we all know he's going to hit Free Agency within the next couple seasons. There could because for concern for his arm long term. Is he a great sell high candidate, or should the Sox hold onto him for 2 more years and watch him sign with the Yankees and the backlash that would ensue?

[ORS]

You have a real hard-on for trade proposal mental diarrhea, don't you?

[Rdsxmbnt]

papelbon for fielder

[BSN07]

You have a real hard-on for trade proposal mental diarrhea, don't you?

Yup I enjoy kicking around ideas. You learn a lot about what others on the board think. Or how they value certain people and why. If you don't like it, you don't have to participate.

[ORS]

But I am participating. My contribution is sharing the opinion that I think your endless trade suggestions are tiresome and stale. Or is it only participating if you play by your rules?

[example1]

It could be a godsend for the Sox that he was unwilling to get a medium sized extended payday because he wants Rivera money. He may be just stupid enough to screw himself over, unwilling to relinquish the candy bar to get his hand out of the vending machine.

[example1]

All this...


it seems hes been behind in a lot of counts and battling back. As closers go, they never want to be beat on a secondary pitch, maybe this is the reason we have not seen it much, because hes always falling behind in counts.


His mechanics are out of whack. His walk rate has more than doubled since last season.

I'm concerned about an arm injury.


I think he's just failing to repeat his delivery consistently.

It wouldn't be shocking, since his mechanics are quite high-maintenance.


it's because tek is catching him now when Cash did he threw more splitters


His control is very sporadic. I don't know if it's injury, mechanics or what but if he doesn't get it back he can't be the insanely dominant closer that he can be.


Anyone see the Sox dealing Paps in a blockbuster type deal? Hypothetically, what does everyone see the Sox getting in return?

I really like him, but we all know he's going to hit Free Agency within the next couple seasons. There could because for concern for his arm long term. Is he a great sell high candidate, or should the Sox hold onto him for 2 more years and watch him sign with the Yankees and the backlash that would ensue?

... and nobody really comments on the fact that he basically stopped throwing his splitter in the middle of 2008. That's a pretty big loss in terms of his 'stuff', as I'm sure people remember some of the games over the past few years where he was throwing splits that just fell off the table.

Did anyone think there was any reason for him to change from the FB/SPLIT combination that he had in 07 and the first part of 08? I thought, at the time, that those two pitches could be enough for him to be successful for the rest of his career (a la Rivera with the FB and the CUTTER).

Now, suddenly--and without much fanfare at all--he is throwing occasional sliders and hardly ever throwing a split.

We can talk mechanics all we want, but if Beckett suddenly stopped throwing his curve, or if Oki stopped throwing his okey-dokey changeup would we be discussing mechanics and control, or would we be discussing why he changed the pitches he offers?

I think there is something injury-related. Either the split was one of the reasons that his shoulder supposedly tired at the end of seasons, or they saw weakening and had him stop, or he decided to stop to get that big FA contract in a few years. I don't buy that it wasn't effective (I thought it was one of the best pitches in baseball), or that he was worried that Tek couldn't catch it (there is nothing to support that).

Overall, I would say that Papelbon without his splitter is a MUCH less valuable pitcher than he was with it. He is still an elite closer, but for how long none of us can be sure.

[jacksonianmarch]

The split is notoriously tough on the elbow, not the shoulder. But also, his splitter was getting batted around last season. It became an inconsistent pitch. I remember him giving up a homer to us on it and then I havent seen him throwing it again.

[BSN07]

I talked to my pitching coach yesterday. He said the the split finger is the single most damaging pitch a pitcher can throw. So maybe that could be a reason he stopped throwing it. If this is the case, then he better develop a second pitch or he falls back to the pack some as far as closers go.

[BSN07]

But I am participating. My contribution is sharing the opinion that I think your endless trade suggestions are tiresome and stale. Or is it only participating if you play by your rules?

Sorry that you feel this way. But I am who I am, and I do what I do. And if you don't know this by now, or haven't blocked me out yet, then I'm not sure what I can say.

Trade banter is one of my favorite thing to do pre TDL and off season. I'm sorry if it effects you in a negative way. I still contend that it is a great way to see how people really value players. So I'm sure I will continue to do so.

I guess I could start my post with a "spoiler" alert of sorts. A sort of "don't read this if your not into talking hypothetical trade scenario's" type of deal? Would that help? Or would it be better for you personally if I didn't post all together?

[Dojji]

I talked to my pitching coach yesterday. He said the the split finger is the single most damaging pitch a pitcher can throw. So maybe that could be a reason he stopped throwing it. If this is the case, then he better develop a second pitch or he falls back to the pack some as far as closers go.

He's got a nice little slider that he's shown a few times.

[BSN07]

He's got a nice little slider that he's shown a few times.

He needs to show it more often, or develop a change-up or something. Hitters are sitting on his FB. They don't respect his secondary pitches it seems.

[Jacoby_Ellsbury]

But I am participating. My contribution is sharing the opinion that I think your endless trade suggestions are tiresome and stale. Or is it only participating if you play by your rules?
lol come on ORS he's not hurting anyone.

[example1]

The broadcasters on YES during last night's game kept mentioning that they were "waiting for Papelbon to bring that splitter" after he threw a number of FBs.

Apparently they don't know that he doesn't throw it any more... I assume the Yankees know he doesn't.

His splitter lives on reputation alone.

[YAZMAN]

26IP, 23H, 13BB. He lives on the edge, like Righetti used to.

[BoSox21]

Papelbon threw at least one splitter last night, it was 91 MPH. I'm not positive who he threw it to though, I think it was the first pitch thrown to Posada

[Dojji]

"I felt pretty good physically," said Papelbon, who was nearly taken to the hospital for dehydration during Tuesday's game, in which he didn't pitch. "I just had to take my time between each pitch. I'm sure I got a handful of 'pacing the game' violations tonight, but it is what it is. I was just breathing a little heavy. The big thing was I made it through it. Obviously, yeah, I was sick, but I was able to bounce back and come help the ballclub."

Deserves mention that he pitched his save last night while dealing with the aftereffects of food poisoning.

[BoSox21]

amazing that he hit 98 on the gun

[a700hitter]

amazing that he hit 98 on the gunI think the gun was a little juiced last night. Wang hit 96 on a pitch. There is no way that he throws that hard at this point. The gun was fast by at least 3 mph. The gun has been juiced for Yanks-Sox games this season. In the last series at yankee Stadium, the gun showed Lester hitting 99 and 101.

[Dojji]

That's disappointing in light of Bard's three-digit cheese last night. I suppose the worst that could have been was 97 though.

[Dipre]

That's disappointing in light of Bard's three-digit cheese last night. I suppose the worst that could have been was 97 though.

Gameday.

Use it.

It's as accurate a tool in regards to velocity as you're gonna find.

According to it, Papelbon's top speed last night was 97.

According to it, Bard hit 100 three times the other night.

Speculation is no fun when you have the tools to verify the veracity of things.

[Dojji]

I've never been quite sure the Gameday gun is any more accurate than the stadium version. When they're within 1 MPH of each other it usually doesn't matter of course but when they disagree I'm not always sure which one to trust.

[Jacoby_Ellsbury]

Gameday is excruciating.

[Dipre]

I've never been quite sure the Gameday gun is any more accurate than the stadium version. When they're within 1 MPH of each other it usually doesn't matter of course but when they disagree I'm not always sure which one to trust.

FAIL.

They have the best speed-measuring system, which functions the following way:

They take about 30 high-speed shots of the ball as it leaves the pitcher's hand until it reaches the glove, recording the current speed of each point in the trajectory.

Saying the stadium and gameday guns are usually 1 MPH of each other is a flat-out lie.

[example1]

I've never been quite sure the Gameday gun is any more accurate than the stadium version. When they're within 1 MPH of each other it usually doesn't matter of course but when they disagree I'm not always sure which one to trust.

According to ORS (and the following article) Gameday doesn't use a gun per-se, they use 3 high speed cameras and triangulate the data:

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20071002&content_id=2245402&vkey=news_mlb&fext=.jsp&c_id=mlb


How did we know that data from Chamberlain? Well, for starters, it's not about radar guns anymore. They will become a thing of the past in baseball and are not used for this popular data. It's about video at 30 frames per second. It's about a tedious setup process that happens early in the day at a ballpark, very behind-the-scenes.

Before groundskeepers work on the mound and plate areas during the afternoon preceding a typical night game, a crew is on the field placing spiked and colored/numbered markers on the first- and third-base lines, as well as a marked eight-foot pole at home plate. That is called the "registration" process and is captured by three field cameras -- high home, high first base and center field -- so that the information is then stored into the truck computer software to create the "grid" that will allow the game's pitch-tracking to happen.

The center-field camera is used for two purposes, most important for "sizing" the batter. For the software to find the ball (or "blob" to the engineers who plot the application), there needs to be a different plane of location for Matt Holliday than for Kazuo Matsui, who is smaller in stature than Holliday. Then the crew in the truck sizes each player during batting practice, so that during the game each tracking plane is pre-set; it is remembered for each subsequent at-bat by that player.




"We take a series of high-speed photographs, 30 frames per second, as [the ball] moves from mound to plate. At each frame, we can identify the location of the ball. So if we take the time of that frame, we can calculate speed. [Radar guns] are the old days. It doesn't get any more accurate than this."


I challenge him to get more accurate than:

http://www.toysnjoys.com/radarball.jpg

perhaps someday... :lol:

[Dipre]

According to ORS (and the following article) Gameday doesn't use a gun per-se, they use 3 high speed cameras and triangulate the data:

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20071002&content_id=2245402&vkey=news_mlb&fext=.jsp&c_id=mlb






I challenge him to get more accurate than:

http://www.toysnjoys.com/radarball.jpg

perhaps someday... :lol:

Exactly 30 shots per pitch, iiirc,hell, they even get average speed.

[DirtDog]

He's got a nice little slider that he's shown a few times.
You're right. His slider is above average, but he rarely throws it. Does he have a curveball? I know he has like one other pitch that he rarely throws.

[Coco's Disciples]

lolol at the radar ball. I used to love that thing.

[SCM33]

In an appearance on Sirius XM Radio, Jonathan Papelbon told Jody McDonald and Bert Blyleven that he would consider playing for the Yankees once his Boston career is over:
"Oh, of course. I mean, I think if we can't come to an agreement on terms here in a Red Sox uniform, I mean I think that's pretty much the writing on the wall."
Papelbon says he'd consider joining other teams, too:
"Not only the Bronx, but anywhere. I think anywhere is a possibility. You always have to keep that in the back of your mind because you can't just be one-sided and think that, "Oh, I'm going to be in a Red Sox uniform my entire career" because nowadays that is very, very rare and hopefully we can because there's no question I would love to stay in a Boston Red Sox uniform but I have to do what's best for me and play in an atmosphere where I'm wanted."


Cya later Paps, dont let the door hit you on the ass on the way out.

[Youk Of The Nation]

In an appearance on Sirius XM Radio, Jonathan Papelbon told Jody McDonald and Bert Blyleven that he would consider playing for the Yankees once his Boston career is over:
"Oh, of course. I mean, I think if we can't come to an agreement on terms here in a Red Sox uniform, I mean I think that's pretty much the writing on the wall."
Papelbon says he'd consider joining other teams, too:
"Not only the Bronx, but anywhere. I think anywhere is a possibility. You always have to keep that in the back of your mind because you can't just be one-sided and think that, "Oh, I'm going to be in a Red Sox uniform my entire career" because nowadays that is very, very rare and hopefully we can because there's no question I would love to stay in a Boston Red Sox uniform but I have to do what's best for me and play in an atmosphere where I'm wanted."


Cya later Paps, dont let the door hit you on the ass on the way out.


So he acknowledges that it's rare for a guy to stay with one team, says he's prepared for the possibility of playing elsewhere, and then mentions he'd love to stay with the Sox.

What a douchebag. Yeah, you guys writing him off already sure got it right.

[SCM33]

Yeah, as an afterthought.

[Dojji]

Which makes it useful as a tiebreaker but not as bargaining leverage. Papelbon wants it clear that while he'd like to stay here, he isn't taking a discount for the privellege.

[SCM33]

Basically what I am reading is, all I want is the money. If the Yankees pay me more, then I am going to play for them totally dismissing any sentimental value towards the only club he has played for, and dismissing any emotion fans here have towards him.

Do I blame him for wanting the money? No, it makes it easier to say goodbye.

[BoSox21]

he's in a position to set his family up for generations, I cant fault him for that. Being the type of power pitcher he is, his career could effectively end at any time. Paps isnt some kid who grew up in the shadow of Fenway dreaming to play for this team all his life

[Mr Crunchy]

I dont think theyre overly worried about paplebon and history tells me that he doesnt have the IBM personality thats beloved by John Henrys ownership group.

[a700hitter]

I dont think theyre overly worried about paplebon and history tells me that he doesnt have the IBM personality thats beloved by John Henrys ownership group.Do they want to get rid of every off-beat colorful character on the roster? Boring doesn't sell merchandise.

[a700hitter]

Cya later Paps, dont let the door hit you on the ass on the way out.Say good bye to being a consistent playoff contender too. Those years that they make the playoffs by less than 5 games they will finish out of the money, because his replacement will be responsible for 3 - 5 more blown saves.

[Mr Crunchy]

Theyve gotten rid of every single personality on the team that they inherited and look at the guys theyve kept or traded for..
all quiet proffesionals who dont fuck off or dance on the field or have big mouths.
Its quite evident that they dont give a shit who they move or when they move them and I suspect they will use Paplebon till the time comes to give him the big bucks over the long run and then they will use their whores in the media to grease the skids for him to slide out the door just as they have with Manny Petey Damon etc...You can see the begining of it happening already.

[Dojji]

Logic fail. They drafted, developed, and have committed themselves to Dustin Pedroia, a walking contradiction to your argument.

[a700hitter]

Theyve gotten rid of every single personality on the team that they inherited and look at the guys theyve kept or traded for..
all quiet proffesionals who dont fuck off or dance on the field or have big mouths.
Its quite evident that they dont give a shit who they move or when they move them and I suspect they will use Paplebon till the time comes to give him the big bucks over the long run and then they will use their whores in the media to grease the skids for him to slide out the door just as they have with Manny Petey Damon etc...You can see the begining of it happening already.Yes, sadly, I have seen this movie before. With those other guys, they had age/injury related issues. Papelbon will be right in his prime when he becomes a FA. Hopefully, the FO will see the value in keeping him. I don't want to go back to the days of Heathcliff Slocumb et. al.

[Dojji]

Say good bye to being a consistent playoff contender too. Those years that they make the playoffs by less than 5 games they will finish out of the money, because his replacement will be responsible for 3 - 5 more blown saves.

Really? Cuz I think Dan Bard doesn't need to make very much progress to be as dominant as Papelbon. He throws harder than Pap does, and has a better secondary offering than anything Pap's had since he lost his split.

That said, of course, definitely rather have both.

[a700hitter]

Logic fail. They drafted, developed, and have committed themselves to Dustin Pedroia, a walking contradiction to your argument.While he is full of personality, he has not been controversial in the least. If he becomes controversial and he starts to complain about his contract in a couple of years, rest assured they'll run him out of town too.

[a700hitter]

Really? Cuz I think Dan Bard doesn't need to make very much progress to be as dominant as Papelbon. He throws harder than Pap does, and has a better secondary offering than anything Pap's had since he lost his split.

That said, of course, definitely rather have both.Plenty of guys throw as hard as Papelbon. Being Papelbon takes more than velocity. It takes incredible command, nerves of steel and a short memory. He also has the ability to make the adrenaline rush of a pressure situation work to his advantage. That type of adrenaline can destroy a pitcher's concentration and command. It is so much more than velocity. It is no mistake that he is the most dominating reliever that the Sox have had since Dick Radatz more than 40 years ago. They have had plenty of hard throwers throughout the years, but none have even come close. You are seriously underestimating his value.

[TheKilo]

THE FO LIKES BORING WHITE BASEBALL PLAYERZZZZ

[jacksonianmarch]

Aside from Mo, I would take Paps over damn near anyone else. I see Paps as a mini Mo if you will. Although paps is a bit more of an asshole, but who cares, right? Paps has the ability to get into trouble, bear down and say, fuck you guys, you can't hit this. Mo used to do the same thing when his cutter had about a foot of bite and had 96-98mph cheese behind it. Now, Mo relies more on location than anything else. Paps, though, can throw a 95 mph fastball that hitters react to like its 120mph. Deceptive motion + overpowering stuff + nerves of steel = dominant closer. You dont find guys like him everyday

[jacksonianmarch]

and as much as I hate the guy, I would love to see him donning pinstripes one day

[Mr Crunchy]

Logic failed? Remembering this is a business 1st for a moment consider that they locked up the reigning MVP for several years at short money just like they did with Paplebon and Nomar for that matter.
They havent had to give him the high 8 figure deal yet and when they do?
He hasnt been a big mouth in the press, he has played waay above and beyond their expectations and although hes mouthy to the opposition he hasnt been a pain in the ass and a prima donna.
23 yr olds with little MLB experience are much easier to handle than the 28-30yr old vets who are about to make their big score, this is certainly agreed upon by the panel.
As far as Bard being groomed as the next closer?
Im sure they'd love to see him succeed in his current role 1st as we also know many guys who throw hi 90s who have failed at the closers role for a variety of reasons...
Mentally its different getting the ball with the lead and 3 outs to attain for success as opposed to coming into the game in the 6th 7th innings without the game on the line.

[jacksonianmarch]

Agree completely Crunchy. Logic fail? Stupid to say the least. He'll be 30 when he hits FA and probably the most successful closer over a 6 yr span in the history of the red sox.

Here's the issue with Paps. He had that shoulder subluxation episode that seems to have resolved with strengthening. That is the only reason to go yr to yr with him is health. Otherwise, right now he possesses a fastball that nobody can hit, even when they know its coming. What I do like about Papelbon is that he's using some mopup time to try out new pitches. I've seen him throw changeups, sliders and a curveball as well as the splitter that seems hit or miss. The more pitches he develops, the better he will be as he ages and the heat starts cooling off. This is something that will make him more marketable long term

[a700hitter]

Aside from Mo, I would take Paps over damn near anyone else. I see Paps as a mini Mo if you will. Although paps is a bit more of an asshole, but who cares, right? Paps has the ability to get into trouble, bear down and say, fuck you guys, you can't hit this. Mo used to do the same thing when his cutter had about a foot of bite and had 96-98mph cheese behind it. Now, Mo relies more on location than anything else. Paps, though, can throw a 95 mph fastball that hitters react to like its 120mph. Deceptive motion + overpowering stuff + nerves of steel = dominant closer. You dont find guys like him everydayA young Mo... yes. Mini Mo ... No. I never thought Mo was an asshole. Papelbon certainly can be one, but who cares. I think the fact that he is a bit of an empty headed idiot makes him better able to cope with the stresses of closing.

[Mr Crunchy]

MJ,didnt you say a couple weeks ago that Paplebon didnt scare you anymore and his whip would be his eventual downfall as a premier closer?...
In any case I was thinking about you last night.
Specifically about the umps and its brutal how they seem to screw the yanks at every oppurtunity they get..Hey those Nats are good,nobody should takem lightly inspite of their .280 winning%
in 2 games they threw 17 shutout innings against that vaunted Yank lineup and now have finally won 2 in a row, thats a dynasty like performance for them...
The Yanks bats are dead and I dont get it.
they have no fucking patience at the plate,Arod is useless and Joba still has no command with men on base...At least their bullpen has improved in the last 2 months..Thank Christ for Castillo dropping that floating duck or there would be a lot of anxiety in ny after getting swept by the sox, losing 2/3 against the timid Mets and the horrid Nats at home...
Yankee stadium doesnt have the Aura and Mystique it once had ever since Curt Schilling came to Boston and this new barn they play hasnt been warm to the yanks at all...
The NY tax payer really took this one in the ass and how long will the Fredo brothers put up with such lackluster play from this paper juggernaut?
Joe Girardi must be looking over his shoulder,especially with Willie Randolph available.

[TheKilo]

THE FO IS RACIST

[Dipre]

Trying to get rid of all the colorful characters?

Correct me if i'm wrong, but the most colorful character in the game plays 2nd base for this team.

[a700hitter]

Trying to get rid of all the colorful characters?

Correct me if i'm wrong, but the most colorful character in the game plays 2nd base for this team.Give them time.

[CrespoBlows]

Give them time.

http://www.banklawyersblog.com/.a/6a00d8341c652b53ef01156f777a8a970c-800wi

[example1]

Say good bye to being a consistent playoff contender too. Those years that they make the playoffs by less than 5 games they will finish out of the money, because his replacement will be responsible for 3 - 5 more blown saves.


Yes, sadly, I have seen this movie before. With those other guys, they had age/injury related issues. Papelbon will be right in his prime when he becomes a FA. Hopefully, the FO will see the value in keeping him. I don't want to go back to the days of Heathcliff Slocumb et. al.

You still don't trust this FO to build a sustainable winning team? Plenty of teams have good closers and don't make the playoffs, and plenty of teams have mediocre closers and beat the Red Sox in the ALCS. Your pessimism and Papelboncentrism is kind of weird.

If Papelbon wants to be the highest paid closer in the history of the game then he will be doing it somewhere other than Boston and I wouldn't blame the FO one bit. If he wants to be close to the highest paid closer, make an absurd amount of money and stay with a fanbase that really likes him, then he can do it in Boston.

[example1]

Give them time.

Again, with the negativity.

You say that the last few years of being a Sox fan has been second only to Sex in terms of its enjoyability, yet you act like you're trapped in 1992.

[a700hitter]

You still don't trust this FO to build a sustainable winning team? Plenty of teams have good closers and don't make the playoffs, and plenty of teams have mediocre closers and beat the Red Sox in the ALCS. Your pessimism and Papelboncentrism is kind of weird. As usual Example, you always play amateur psychologist and make erroneous conclusions regarding the thoughts of others. Where did I say that I don't trust this FO to build a sustainable winning team? How did you get that from my posts in this thread? I don't know whether the FO will sign Papelbon long term, but apparently you do. IMO, it would be a mistake to let him walk unless there is a health concern. That's my opinion. Let me reiterate, that I don't know what the FO will do. If they let him walk and it is a mistake, they are smart and talented enough with sufficiently deep pockets to make other moves to recover. Can an issue ever be discussed with you where you don't try to turn it into some sort of referendum on whether the FO is "Good or Evil" with you trying to make me take the "Evil" side of the argument?

I differ with you regarding the importance of a "lock down" closer. I happen to think that it is very important to a team's consistent year in and year out competitiveness, e.g. the Yankees. The Rays as you pointed out don't have a good closer and they made the playoffs last year, but this year they are playing very inconsistently, and they will probably not make the playoffs. You can blame it on plenty of things, but the fact is that their late innings bullpen has been horrendous.

With regard to the FO using the press to destroy players, Crunchy listed a bunch of them. IMO, when the FO is done with a player, they will use the press to destroy the player's public image to reduce the fan backlash when the player walks. That's my opinion. Will they do that with Papelbon and/or Pedroia? If they decide to part company with those two players in a few years, I would not be surprised to see negative press about them. Would you?

[a700hitter]

Again, with the negativity.

You say that the last few years of being a Sox fan has been second only to Sex in terms of its enjoyability, yet you act like you're trapped in 1992.Example, I really don't care much if they destroy a guy in the press when they are done with him. I think it is a shitty thing to do, but I don't root for the FO or for the former players who leave on bad terms. I root for the fellas in uniform, and no press side show could dampen my enjoyment of that. So take that you... walking misery.

[example1]

IMO, it would be a mistake to let him walk unless there is a health concern. That's my opinion. Let me reiterate, that I don't know what the FO will do.

I just don't see how anyone who has watched this FO can make this statement without at least involving a discussion about the money involved. If Papelbon demands $20m a year would it be a mistake? I think so.

Furthermore, I think that you DO have a good idea of what this FO will do. They will set a value and they will stick to it. They may flex a bit here or there, but they aren't going to pay huge sums of money for a closer if they don't feel he's worth it.

Why these discussions never revolve around the ACTUAL value of a player I just don't get. It is usually something like "they can't make it without the wins that Papelbon contributes", but with no reference to the wins he contributes or even about how the FO would make that determination. Win Shares, WARP, VORP, etc., would all be reasonable ways of looking at it and might approximate what the FO would look at. We aren't stumbling blindly here a700.



I differ with you regarding the importance of a "lock down" closer. I happen to think that it is very important to a team's consistent year in and year out competitiveness, e.g. the Yankees.


I don't disagree. I think a "lock down" closer is a great thing to have. The question is, at what expense? If they offer him 17m a year and he blows out his arm in year two and can't top 91mph thereafter, they would have screwed themselves. They won't put themselves into a situation where that is the case.



With regard to the FO using the press to destroy players, Crunchy listed a bunch of them. IMO, when the FO is done with a player, they will use the press to destroy the player's public image to reduce the fan backlash when the player walks. That's my opinion. Will they do that with Papelbon and/or Pedroia? If they decide to part company with those two players in a few years, I would not be surprised to see negative press about them. Would you?

Pedroia is signed to a 6 year deal. I don't think they are interested in destroying his public image. Papelbon talking about going to the Yankees and wanting the absolute most amount of money--and presumably turning down lucrative multi-year, pre-arbitration deals in the process--is digging his own grave in Boston should he choose to exercise that right. Players have some say in how they are perceived when they leave Boston.

[a700hitter]

I just don't see how anyone who has watched this FO can make this statement without at least involving a discussion about the money involved. If Papelbon demands $20m a year would it be a mistake? I think so.

Furthermore, I think that you DO have a good idea of what this FO will do. They will set a value and they will stick to it. They may flex a bit here or there, but they aren't going to pay huge sums of money for a closer if they don't feel he's worth it..

Why these discussions never revolve around the ACTUAL value of a player I just don't get. It is usually something like "they can't make it without the wins that Papelbon contributes", but with no reference to the wins he contributes or even about how the FO would make that determination. Win Shares, WARP, VORP, etc., would all be reasonable ways of looking at it and might approximate what the FO would look at. We aren't stumbling blindly here a700.
I think I can render an opinion that losing Papelbon would be detrimental to the team's onfield performance without discussing finances. I wasn't getting into a discussion of his market value. I am not a baseball executive. I am a fan. I do know that the Red Sox are one of the wealthiest franchises in sports so they can afford to offer Papelbon the going rate for "lock down" closers. Whether or not they choose to offer him a market value contract, if he leaves it will be detrimental to the team's performance IMO.


I don't disagree. I think a "lock down" closer is a great thing to have. The question is, at what expense? If they offer him 17m a year and he blows out his arm in year two and can't top 91mph thereafter, they would have screwed themselves. They won't put themselves into a situation where that is the case. Like I said before, the Sox can pay the market rate. If the Yankees are willing to pay 25 percent more than every other team, that would not be a market rate, but the Sox could certainly afford KRod money.


Pedroia is signed to a 6 year deal. I don't think they are interested in destroying his public image. .Of course not. They don't do the hatchet job until they are ready to get rid of you. Wait until the end of year 5 and maybe it will be Nomar all over again.

[Dipre]

A700= Positive thinking FAIL.

[Jacoby_Ellsbury]

Papelbon = last closer left on the face of the earth, no way we can afford to lose him.

[example1]

I think I can render an opinion that losing Papelbon would be detrimental to the team's onfield performance without discussing finances.

Yes, and you would be saying something that everyone in the world knows. As long as he isn't producing at a replacement-level it would be detrimental.



I wasn't getting into a discussion of his market value. I am not a baseball executive. I am a fan.

But you're more than that. You are a very knowledgable fan who discusses this team A LOT. The more complicated discussion certainly isn't beyond your abilities.



I do know that the Red Sox are one of the wealthiest franchises in sports so they can afford to offer Papelbon the going rate for "lock down" closers.

Okay, this is more like it. I agree. If Papelbon is willing to take K-Rod money, and see the "going rate" as the "rate that all teams not called the Yankees are willing to pay for a player" or the "rate that is relative to the overall earning that the team is likely to get by retaining his services", then we agree.



Like I said before, the Sox can pay the market rate. If the Yankees are willing to pay 25 percent more than every other team, that would not be a market rate, but the Sox could certainly afford KRod money.

We agree that they could afford it. Whether they see him as worth that amount is a different discussion.

[Spudboy]

Isn't he signed through 2011? Or is it 2010? In any case, I don't see the Sox over spending to keep him here. If Bard continues to learn and mature as a "closer in training", who needs Paps. I'd like to keep both but not if it takes $17-$20 mil/year. That's crazy money.

[Jacoby_Ellsbury]

Isn't he signed through 2011? Or is it 2010? In any case, I don't see the Sox over spending to keep him here. If Bard continues to learn and mature as a "closer in training", who needs Paps. I'd like to keep both but not if it takes $17-$20 mil/year. That's crazy money.
Bard is not Paps, he's skinnier, doesn't have a goofy sense of humor, and doesn't go on annual deer hunts in the outbacks of Missishitti. Therefore, Bard is a n00bcake.

[a700hitter]

But you're more than that. You are a very knowledgable fan who discusses this team A LOT. The more complicated discussion certainly isn't beyond your abilities.
I just don't have the energy to engage in dueling spreadsheets every time I state an opinion about a player's performance. I didn't go anywhere near the issue of discussing his market value and the finances of the Red Sox, but thank you for trying to drag me there.

[SCM33]

Yes, sadly, I have seen this movie before. With those other guys, they had age/injury related issues. Papelbon will be right in his prime when he becomes a FA. Hopefully, the FO will see the value in keeping him. I don't want to go back to the days of Heathcliff Slocumb et. al.

Ahhh, thats going a little overboard. You honestly think the front office would replace him with the likes of a Heathcliff Slocumb?

In 1997, it was the end of the Slocumb debacle.
In 1998, Gordon had 46 saves.
In 1999, when Gordon fell apart, we saw the emergence of Derek Lowe
In 2000 Lowe had 42 saves.
In 2001 Lowe was a little shakier with 24 saves, but we brought in OOgie, and the team finished with 48 saves.
In 2002, Urbina saved 40 games.
In 2003 we had closer by committee, FML.
In 2004, Foulke was lights out.....the offensive clout limited his save opportunites.
In 2005, as a whole....the bullpen sucked as Foulke fizzled out.
In 2006, Papelbon emerged.

When, since Slocumb left were we ever really without a solid plan at the closer position besides the ill fated closer by committee? In 05, who would have expected Foulke to lose it that fast? The answer is that the RedSox have always had a plan moving forward since the Slocumb ordeal. Look, I dont want to get rid of the guy, but when he makes statements like that, then owell. If and when they let Papelbon go, there will be someone to replace him, and chances are, it will be a MLB ready prospect, or another superstar who wants a chance at a world series. Like the patriots starting doing long ago, I think the Sox put a value on a player, and dont go above it....like they showed with Varitek.

[a700hitter]

Ahhh, thats going a little overboard. You honestly think the front office would replace him with the likes of a Heathcliff Slocumb?

In 1997, it was the end of the Slocumb debacle.
In 1998, Gordon had 46 saves.
In 1999, when Gordon fell apart, we saw the emergence of Derek Lowe
In 2000 Lowe had 42 saves.
In 2001 Lowe was a little shakier with 24 saves, but we brought in OOgie, and the team finished with 48 saves.
In 2002, Urbina saved 40 games.
In 2003 we had closer by committee, FML.
In 2004, Foulke was lights out.....the offensive clout limited his save opportunites.
In 2005, as a whole....the bullpen sucked as Foulke fizzled out.
In 2006, Papelbon emerged.

When, since Slocumb left were we ever really without a solid plan at the closer position besides the ill fated closer by committee? In 05, who would have expected Foulke to lose it that fast? The answer is that the RedSox have always had a plan moving forward since the Slocumb ordeal. Look, I dont want to get rid of the guy, but when he makes statements like that, then owell. If and when they let Papelbon go, there will be someone to replace him, and chances are, it will be a MLB ready prospect, or another superstar who wants a chance at a world series. Like the patriots starting doing long the Sox put a value on a player, and dont go above it....like they showed with Varitek.Your post proves my point. From 1998 on, we have had a bunch of closers. There was not the consistenct excellent performance from the closer spot throughout those years that Papelbon gives us. I don't know what the blown save totals were for Derek lowe while he was closing, but there were too many of them causing him to be shifted back to starting. Urbina's BS totals I don't know, but I was not too comfortable when he had the ball in his hands either.

[jacksonianmarch]

Most people attribute the yankees consistent overachieving in regards to the Pythag to Mo. When we got to the 8th with a lead, he locked it down. Paps is in that category. Not a lot of closers share that. The day he leaves is the day the sox pen gets beatable on a regular basis

[SCM33]

Most people attribute the yankees consistent overachieving in regards to the Pythag to Mo. When we got to the 8th with a lead, he locked it down. Paps is in that category. Not a lot of closers share that. The day he leaves is the day the sox pen gets beatable on a regular basis

Whos not to say that Bard becomes the guy? 700, I see the point you are making, but hes not completely irreplacable. Clearly Bard is not ready for that role yet, but I really doubt they let Paps walk without a thought out plan. Players come and go, as do closers. The Yankees are one of the few teams who have had only 1 guy doing the job for 10 plus years, I guess you can add Hoffman to that list before this season.

If Paps leaves, I would be excited to see what Bard could do......we arent the Angels, we wouldnt let K-Rod leave to replace him with Fuentes. The Sox are not cheap, they will offer Paps a reasonable deal, and if he doesnt take it, he will move on, and we will as well.

Of all the positions in baseball, the closer role is one that players seem to lose the touch for the easiest. Not many people make a career of it these days, and especially with one team. Closers fall off the map quickly, and we know Paps is one pitch away from blowing out his shoulder.

[Jacoby_Ellsbury]

Bard's name isn't Papelbon. Therefore he's destined to be nothing but a n00bcake FAILbag. This memo went out a while ago.

[a700hitter]

Whos not to say that Bard becomes the guy? 700, I see the point you are making, but hes not completely irreplaceable. Of course, Bard has the ability, but we won't know until he has the job. We know that Papelbon is really, really good at the job. He's the best we've had in over 40 years. He was great right out of the box. Bard has gotten derailed before in the minors. If he gets the job after Papelbon, I'll be rooting for him to succeed, but I think it is risky to expect him to be the next Papelbon. You say that Papelbon is not irreplaceable, but as I have pointed out, he is the best in more than 40 years. Also, how many guys in all of baseball are as good as him? The answer is not many, if any. Replacing him would not be like changing tires on your car.

[a700hitter]

Bard's name isn't Papelbon. Therefore he's destined to be nothing but a n00bcake FAILbag. This memo went out a while ago.Oh please. Go to sleep before your mommy sees that your light is still on you little twit. I am going to sleep because I have an early drive to Boston. I'll be at Fenway on Saturday night and Sunday afternoon, so I will not have the pleasure of breaking your tiny little hairless balls until Monday, unless you are also going to the games. I guess not. BTW I don't understand all this hating on papelbon. Very negative. Some would call it pessimistic.

[Jacoby_Ellsbury]

Oh please. Go to sleep before your mommy sees that your light is still on you little twit. I am going to sleep because I have an early drive to Boston. I'll be at Fenway on Saturday night and Sunday afternoon, so I will not have the pleasure of breaking your tiny little hairless balls until Monday, unless you are also going to the games. I guess not. BTW I don't understand all this hating on papelbon. Very negative. Some would call it pessimistic.
1) My mom is dead. Jump off a cliff.

2) There is no 'hating on Papelbon' in here, its stating the fact that resigning him for asinine amounts of money when we have one of the deepest farm systems in the game. Not that you would know that, because you hate every single prospect in the system.

3) Tiny little hairless balls > purple, defunct egg sack that sags below the knees, gramps. That's assuming you really are 49, I'm more convinced that you're about 13 given your insult attempts and fairly low knowledge about the finer aspects of baseball, such as stats and the farm system.

[a700hitter]

1) My mom is dead. Jump off a cliff.

2) There is no 'hating on Papelbon' in here, its stating the fact that resigning him for asinine amounts of money when we have one of the deepest farm systems in the game. Not that you would know that, because you hate every single prospect in the system.

3) Tiny little hairless balls > purple, defunct egg sack that sags below the knees, gramps. That's assuming you really are 49, I'm more convinced that you're about 13 given your insults and apparent intellect level.Wow, touchy! Too bad about your mom. Sorry about that. But you are still a nasty little prick.

[SCM33]

Oh please. Go to sleep before your mommy sees that your light is still on you little twit. I am going to sleep because I have an early drive to Boston. I'll be at Fenway on Saturday night and Sunday afternoon, so I will not have the pleasure of breaking your tiny little hairless balls until Monday, unless you are also going to the games. I guess not. BTW I don't understand all this hating on papelbon. Very negative. Some would call it pessimistic.

I do see all of your points, and I am not hating on Papelbon.
I am just being a little realistic about the situtation when Papelbon walks away, if he does. We all love him, we all root for him, but its not all about that unfortuneately, as you know there is a business side, and I just dont see him sticking around if he expects K-Rod type money, which he will since he is better.

[Jacoby_Ellsbury]

Wow, touchy! Too bad about your mom. Sorry about that. But you are still a nasty little prick.
Pot meet kettle X 20.


Fuck off.

[Dipre]

Papelbon wants to break Rivera money, and no reliever deserves Rivera money.

No one hates Papelbon, it's just unrealistic to think he's worth more than 10 per at the most.

[a700hitter]

I do see all of your points, and I am not hating on Papelbon.
I am just being a little realistic about the situtation when Papelbon walks away, if he does. We all love him, we all root for him, but its not all about that unfortuneately, as you know there is a business side, and I just dont see him sticking around if he expects K-Rod type money, which he will since he is better.I think a lot of us think the Sox would go for KRod money. Of course, there is the possibility that the Yankees blow off everyone's doors, but if they don't, I think the FO will keep him in Boston. But I am just a pessimist.;)

[a700hitter]

Papelbon wants to break Rivera money, and no reliever deserves Rivera money.

No one hates Papelbon, it's just unrealistic to think he's worth more than 10 per at the most.Doesn't KRod get $13 million?

[Jacoby_Ellsbury]

Doesn't KRod get $13 million?
Omar Minaya.

[Dipre]

Doesn't KRod get $13 million?

But it's a 3-year contract.

Papelbon has publicly stated he wants over 14 mill a year over 5 years or more.

In a short, say, 2 or 3 year contract, going up to 15 per with him is not that bad.

But 90/5 is a no-no.

[a700hitter]

But it's a 3-year contract.

Papelbon has publicly stated he wants over 14 mill a year over 5 years or more.

In a short, say, 2 or 3 year contract, going up to 15 per with him is not that bad.

But 90/5 is a no-no.I don't think $14 million is outrageous. If that's the market, that's the market. If the Yankees blow off the doors, that would not be the market and he leaves.

[Dipre]

I don't think $14 million is outrageous. If that's the market, that's the market. If the Yankees blow off the doors, that would not be the market and he leaves.

14 mill a year for relief pitchers is not the market.

It may be for New York teams, but 14 per is outrageous sir.

[a700hitter]

14 mill a year for relief pitchers is not the market.

It may be for New York teams, but 14 per is outrageous sir.Not today, but it may be the market when he hits the market. $14 million is not such a far cry from the $13 million that KRod is getting. It's all outrageous to us, but we don't set the market.

[BSN07]

Rob Bradford at WEEI.com spoke to Red Sox closer Jonathan Papelbon about the comments he made on Sirius XM Radio yesterday regarding the possibility of joining the Yankees or other clubs when he reaches free agency.

“I just think that when people hear what I said or people read what I said sometimes they can only see certain things. I want to make that clear, I don’t want to go (expletive) for the Yankees,” Papelbon said. “Believe me, I’ve got a ring here and I’m playing for a manager and general manager who are going to protect me. I’ve been on a team in baseball who has been in first-place more than any other (expletive) team in baseball. It’s just a simple fact for me that what I was stating that guys nowadays don’t necessarily get the opportunity to be with a team for a long period of time. Do I want to be with the Red Sox for as long as I can? Of course. There is no question about because I know I’m playing a manager and general manager who are going to protect me and to me that’s all that matters.”

[Dipre]

Oh, so changing your stance now, eh, Paps?

I wonder how could the reporter make out what he was saying so clearly with his his foot so far up his own mouth.

[matt9071]

Great pitcher lose cannon for a mouth. 14 over 5 yrs doesnt sound that bad. If he can watch his mouth he is definitly worth it imo.

[Dipre]

Great pitcher lose cannon for a mouth. 14 over 5 yrs doesnt sound that bad. If he can watch his mouth he is definitly worth it imo.

This type of humor is welcome in the site. /sarcasm.

[jacksonianmarch]

the best closer in the history of the game is making 15 mil a yr. The best young closer to hit the market in a down economical yr got 13 mil a yr. Papelbon is better than KRod IMO and on par with Mo nowadays, so I'd say Paps in better economic times will likely be getting 15 a yr.

[das11209]

Oh, so changing your stance now, eh, Paps?

I wonder how could the reporter make out what he was saying so clearly with his his foot so far up his own mouth.

Refresh my moemory - but is that similar to what Damon said in 2005?

[Dipre]

the best closer in the history of the game is making 15 mil a yr. The best young closer to hit the market in a down economical yr got 13 mil a yr. Papelbon is better than KRod IMO and on par with Mo nowadays, so I'd say Paps in better economic times will likely be getting 15 a yr.

Isn't that the whole point?

The skidding economy?

[ms_sox]

Oh, so changing your stance now, eh, Paps?

I wonder how could the reporter make out what he was saying so clearly with his his foot so far up his own mouth.
Win. :thumbsup:

I know it's hard to pick your words at-the-moment when interviewed, but he really seems to have a hyperactive-mouth/no brain filter. Which isn't necessarily bad...but when you're in the spotlight, it can be terrible publicity/image wise. Heh

[SCM33]

the best closer in the history of the game is making 15 mil a yr. The best young closer to hit the market in a down economical yr got 13 mil a yr. Papelbon is better than KRod IMO and on par with Mo nowadays, so I'd say Paps in better economic times will likely be getting 15 a yr.

I think what you meant to say is that Paps is on par with Mo in his prime, because you wouldnt realistically suggest that a 28 year old is "on par" with a 39 year old on his way out. Papelbon is better, and hes been better overall since Papelbon took over as closer in 06.

[jacksonianmarch]

Papelbon and Mo were both dominant in 2006, but Paps had a better WHIP and ERA (Mo and Paps were both below 1 in WHIP, but Paps' ERA was under 1, while Mo's was under 2)

In 2007, Mariano's WHIP climbed over 1 and his ERA over 3, while Paps kept his ERA under 2 and his WHIP under 1

In 2008, Mariano was the much better pitcher. He put up a 0.66WHIP, went 39/40 in SvOpps and had a 1.40ERA. Paps OTOH, had a WHIP of 0.93, and ERA of 2.34 and he had 5blown saves.

And this yr, Mo's ERA is much higher, but his WHIP is 0.32 lower and they both have only 1 blown save.

So, I do not agree with your point. Mariano and Papelbon are playing at similar levels right now. Granted, Mariano's 2008 was the best yr of his career.

[Dojji]

Oh, so changing your stance now, eh, Paps?



I'm not so sure he actually changed it. The initial statement got blown way the heck out of context. All he originally said is that he would listen to offers from any team, which he'd be crazy not to do. And he recognized that players don't tend to stay with one team for their entire careers anymore. Sounds like the same thing here, only with a bit more "company line" mixed in.

[Mr Crunchy]

We get a little paranoid in Boston as our rivals 200miles southeast of here look at our roster with a hard-on for anyone good...and we had that 86 year thing after our best player ever was sold for a broadway play and a handjob.
So when one of our guys says "'Sure id play for NY"" its akin to telling your wife "'Sure I'd fuck your younger sister with the bigger tits""...Most guys know enuff not to say things like that but Paps isnt known for his subtelty or high intellect.

[example1]

The Red Sox aren't without options if Papelbon leaves. They have a lot of internal options who might be ready by that time and while the Yankees take Papelbon perhaps the Red Sox take Broxton. He's not quite AS good, but he's pretty darn close with comparable stuff. Nobody wants to see that dude in late innings.

[Dipre]

The Red Sox aren't without options if Papelbon leaves. They have a lot of internal options who might be ready by that time and while the Yankees take Papelbon perhaps the Red Sox take Broxton. He's not quite AS good, but he's pretty darn close with comparable stuff. Nobody wants to see that dude in late innings.

To be honest, Broxton is the most intimidating closer i have ever seen.

[a700hitter]

To be honest, Broxton is the most intimidating closer i have ever seen.He didn't intimidate an old Matt stairs who hit one of his fastballs about 500 feet to wreck the Dodgers post season in 2008.

[Dipre]

He didn't intimidate an old Matt stairs who hit one of his fastballs about 500 feet to wreck the Dodgers post season in 2008.

Intimidation and effectiveness don't go hand in hand.

Hey, you know who's intimidating? Jonathan Papelbon.

You know who handed him his only blown save this year? Omir fucking Santos.

[jacksonianmarch]

We get a little paranoid in Boston as our rivals 200miles southeast of here look at our roster with a hard-on for anyone good...and we had that 86 year thing after our best player ever was sold for a broadway play and a handjob.
So when one of our guys says "'Sure id play for NY"" its akin to telling your wife "'Sure I'd fuck your younger sister with the bigger tits""...Most guys know enuff not to say things like that but Paps isnt known for his subtelty or high intellect.

I will call a spade a spade whether he's wearing sox colors or pinstripes for the most part. Papelbon is a rare pitcher who can combine control with stuff and an iron stomach. We have one of those, but he has publicly stated that next yr is his last big league season. So, we need to look for someone to take the load. I think we have a lot of internal options that could fit the Billy Beane catergory of closer. You know, the guy who'll convert 75-80% of his save chances and be rather dependable but not great. I just think that guys like Mo or Paps are very, very rare. Being able to pitch multiple times per week with the game on the line almost every time and shut down the opposition 95% of the time is a rare, rare entity. I think a lot of people who look at Daniel Bard and say he's Paps replacement are missing that point. I could say the same thing about Mark Melancon or a few others. I like their stuff, I think they'll compete, but I dont think they are going to combine everything needed to be one of the best. We'll see,maybe they will. But dont bet on it

[a700hitter]

Intimidation and effectiveness don't go hand in hand.

Hey, you know who's intimidating? Jonathan Papelbon.

You know who handed him his only blown save this year? Omir fucking Santos.It wasn't a playoff game with the season hanging in the balance. No one has yet laid a glove on Papelbon in those situations.

[a700hitter]

I will call a spade a spade whether he's wearing sox colors or pinstripes for the most part. Papelbon is a rare pitcher who can combine control with stuff and an iron stomach. We have one of those, but he has publicly stated that next yr is his last big league season. So, we need to look for someone to take the load. I think we have a lot of internal options that could fit the Billy Beane catergory of closer. You know, the guy who'll convert 75-80% of his save chances and be rather dependable but not great. I just think that guys like Mo or Paps are very, very rare. Being able to pitch multiple times per week with the game on the line almost every time and shut down the opposition 95% of the time is a rare, rare entity. I think a lot of people who look at Daniel Bard and say he's Paps replacement are missing that point. I could say the same thing about Mark Melancon or a few others. I like their stuff, I think they'll compete, but I dont think they are going to combine everything needed to be one of the best. We'll see,maybe they will. But dont bet on itIt's rare when I completely agree with you. This is one of those times.

[Dipre]

I will call a spade a spade whether he's wearing sox colors or pinstripes for the most part. Papelbon is a rare pitcher who can combine control with stuff and an iron stomach. We have one of those, but he has publicly stated that next yr is his last big league season. So, we need to look for someone to take the load. I think we have a lot of internal options that could fit the Billy Beane catergory of closer. You know, the guy who'll convert 75-80% of his save chances and be rather dependable but not great. I just think that guys like Mo or Paps are very, very rare. Being able to pitch multiple times per week with the game on the line almost every time and shut down the opposition 95% of the time is a rare, rare entity. I think a lot of people who look at Daniel Bard and say he's Paps replacement are missing that point. I could say the same thing about Mark Melancon or a few others. I like their stuff, I think they'll compete, but I dont think they are going to combine everything needed to be one of the best. We'll see,maybe they will. But dont bet on it

Top-of the line stuff and ice watered is a rare combination indeed.

You're 100% right, the excellent closer is indeed a difficult-to-find breed, however, it would not be impossible for the Sox to find another one of those if Papelbon were to depart.

[Spudboy]

Yeah, I have to agree also. But I have concerns over Pap's recent tenancy to put people on base in all circumstances. There is talk that he has adjusted his mechanics to preserve his shoulder / arm.
I'm not sure I buy it.

Bard may not be a closer now, but I believe he will develop his skills over the next season and a half.

[TheKilo]

It wasn't a playoff game with the season hanging in the balance. No one has yet laid a glove on Papelbon in those situations.

SSS

[YAZMAN]

Yeah, I have to agree also. But I have concerns over Pap's recent tenancy to put people on base in all circumstances.

This is absolutely correct. Many looked at this morning's box score and saw the 1.80 ERA to go along with the W, but the two BB jump off the screen at me. He gave up a hit, that's going to happen a lot but when you give up freebies they will come back to haunt you more often than not.

[BoSox21]

This is absolutely correct. Many looked at this morning's box score and saw the 1.80 ERA to go along with the W, but the two BB jump off the screen at me. He gave up a hit, that's going to happen a lot but when you give up freebies they will come back to haunt you more often than not.

Considering his BB/9 this season is precisely twice his career average, minors and majors, I see his 4.8 BB/9 this season to be nothing more than a statistical anomaly and that being said, I'm impressed that he's found a way to maintain an exceptional save conversion % and ERA while he's weathering this storm.

[Spudboy]

Considering his BB/9 this season is precisely twice his career average, minors and majors, I see his 4.8 BB/9 this season to be nothing more than a statistical anomaly and that being said, I'm impressed that he's found a way to maintain an exceptional save conversion % and ERA while he's weathering this storm.

I never said I was not impressed by Pap's work this season. The aggregate has been very acceptable. I'm just worried about his putting men on base when the game is on the line. It's great that he has managed (for the most part) to wiggle out of the jams he causes. I'd just be more comfortable if he were closer to lights out. As he used to be.

[TheKilo]

Considering his BB/9 this season is precisely twice his career average, minors and majors, I see his 4.8 BB/9 this season to be nothing more than a statistical anomaly and that being said, I'm impressed that he's found a way to maintain an exceptional save conversion % and ERA while he's weathering this storm.

Anomaly, or regression? Ask CMW

[BoSox21]

Papelbon doesn't have an injury excuse to fall back on. And honestly, do you really believe Papelbon is suffering a drastic regression in control or do you believe it's an anomaly that will rectify itself?

[jacksonianmarch]

Top-of the line stuff and ice watered is a rare combination indeed.

You're 100% right, the excellent closer is indeed a difficult-to-find breed, however, it would not be impossible for the Sox to find another one of those if Papelbon were to depart.

They can find another closer. Thats my point. See, part of Billy Beane's moneyball theory is to find value where others arent looking. And one of his theories was to nix the idea of a true closer and instead go with a good reliever in that spot. That reliever would then get saves about 75-80% of the time and magically their value would climb. The basis behind his theory is that very few truly dominant closers exist and so many teams are dying for relief help come the break. So, when he takes this good reliever and backs him with the amt of saves he now has, he has improved the players value and has a chance to get much more in return for said player. Both the yankees and the sox have that truly elite closer.

Lets put it this way...

In 2006, Papelbon was good for a 85% Sv conversion rate
In 2007, Papelbon was good for a 93% Sv conversion rate
In 2008, Papelbon was good for a 89% Sv conversion rate
In 2009, Papelbon is good for a 94% Sv conversion rate

Since taking the closer's role, he has saved 129 games and blown only 15 of them for a total rate of 90%. League average in terms of Sv % is 64%. Now that includes middle relievers who give up the lead in the 7th and 8th, but you get my drift. But lets take a tally of the Sv % of the top 10 closers from 2008 not including Paps...

1. KRod- 89% in 2008, career 86%
2. Valverde- 86% in 2008, career 85%
3. Soria- 93% in 2008, career 89%
4. Lidge- 100% in 2008, career 84%
5. Wilson- 87% in 2008, career 85%
6. Rivera- 98% in 2008, career 91% (blown save stat started getting recorded in 2002)
7. Nathan- 87% in 2008, career 90%
8. Wood- 85% in 2008, career 85%
9. Cordero- 85% in 2008, career 82%
10. Ryan- 89% in 2008, career 84%

So look at this list. These are the top third in baseball in terms of closers. Only Rivera has a higher career save conversion rate and only Nathan can claim to be in the 90 percent range. If one assumes that a closer on the red sox will get 60 save opps a season, then the difference between 85% and 90% is 3 games. A 3 game swing in the standings is big. The sox lost the division by 2 games last yr, they won the division by 2 games in 2007 and the yankees had the division by 2 games in 2004. 3 games in the grand scheme of things is huge, and that is a per season difference.

[jacksonianmarch]

Anomaly, or regression? Ask CMW

I think he can attribute it to a few things. Most of the times he got beat, he was throwing the splitter. I think the inconsistency of the splitty and the fact that he is working in a couple other pitches makes me think this will eventually pass. I honestly think that he is trying to increase his marketability and long term performance by adding on a good slider. If he can add on a closer's slider, he'll age better as the heat starts to cool down. The one thing that tells me Paps is still in that elite category is what he does when he does get against the wall. He goes to the ched and nobody can hit it when he elevates it, but everyone swings because it looks like a strike coming out of his hand. As long as he has that, you dont need to worry

[Mr Crunchy]

Ya but MJ some guys close with 3 run leads say in Sandiego vs Sanfran with little pressure and then others are trying to get thru the sox or ny lineups with a 1 run lead..
A statistical problem to analyze for sure, Krod is great but he pitched in the AL West, not the AL East.
Paps is the man here. with a 1 run lead hes the man I want out there for us but what will he be commanding in the future, whats his health like and who do we have to replace him?
John Wettland closed out the 96 season for Ny and won the MVP I believe but due to riveras rise Wettland was expendable...Randy Meyers closed for the 90 reds but they had 100MPH guy rob dibble and norm charlton behind him, Myers went on and Dibble didnt fare nearly as well inspite of this gas being hotter...Its a mental game more than any other spot on the roster, some got it,some dont.

[Spudboy]

I think he can attribute it to a few things. Most of the times he got beat, he was throwing the splitter. I think the inconsistency of the splitty and the fact that he is working in a couple other pitches makes me think this will eventually pass. I honestly think that he is trying to increase his marketability and long term performance by adding on a good slider. If he can add on a closer's slider, he'll age better as the heat starts to cool down. The one thing that tells me Paps is still in that elite category is what he does when he does get against the wall. He goes to the ched and nobody can hit it when he elevates it, but everyone swings because it looks like a strike coming out of his hand. As long as he has that, you dont need to worry

I've wondered why batters swing at elevated fast balls.

Thanks.

[jacksonianmarch]

[/B]

I've wondered why batters swing at elevated fast balls.

Thanks.

I hated them. I was a righty hitter, but I was much more like a lefty in that I loved the ball low and in. I could turn on that just as well as anyone out there. There was a pitcher from U Hartford that I grew up with. He was a 5'6" lefty who threw high 80s, but every one of his fastballs seemed to rise as he was throwing them. They didnt actually rise though, it was just that his spin and motion caused the ball to not drop as much as a standard pitch would. So while it looks like its rising, it is an optical illusion because your mind is assuming the ball will drop with gravity like everything else. So when it is dropping at a slightly slower rate it looked like it was rising right out of his hand. It was amazing. Every ball he threw looked like a cockshot and every time I swung, the ball ended up at chin level. If paps has that pitch at 96mph and from batter reactions it looks like he does, then I dont know how people lay off it or hit it

[example1]

They can find another closer. Thats my point. See, part of Billy Beane's moneyball theory is to find value where others arent looking. And one of his theories was to nix the idea of a true closer and instead go with a good reliever in that spot. That reliever would then get saves about 75-80% of the time and magically their value would climb. The basis behind his theory is that very few truly dominant closers exist and so many teams are dying for relief help come the break. So, when he takes this good reliever and backs him with the amt of saves he now has, he has improved the players value and has a chance to get much more in return for said player. Both the yankees and the sox have that truly elite closer.

Lets put it this way...

In 2006, Papelbon was good for a 85% Sv conversion rate
In 2007, Papelbon was good for a 93% Sv conversion rate
In 2008, Papelbon was good for a 89% Sv conversion rate
In 2009, Papelbon is good for a 94% Sv conversion rate

Since taking the closer's role, he has saved 129 games and blown only 15 of them for a total rate of 90%. League average in terms of Sv % is 64%. Now that includes middle relievers who give up the lead in the 7th and 8th, but you get my drift. But lets take a tally of the Sv % of the top 10 closers from 2008 not including Paps...

1. KRod- 89% in 2008, career 86%
2. Valverde- 86% in 2008, career 85%
3. Soria- 93% in 2008, career 89%
4. Lidge- 100% in 2008, career 84%
5. Wilson- 87% in 2008, career 85%
6. Rivera- 98% in 2008, career 91% (blown save stat started getting recorded in 2002)
7. Nathan- 87% in 2008, career 90%
8. Wood- 85% in 2008, career 85%
9. Cordero- 85% in 2008, career 82%
10. Ryan- 89% in 2008, career 84%

So look at this list. These are the top third in baseball in terms of closers. Only Rivera has a higher career save conversion rate and only Nathan can claim to be in the 90 percent range. If one assumes that a closer on the red sox will get 60 save opps a season, then the difference between 85% and 90% is 3 games. A 3 game swing in the standings is big. The sox lost the division by 2 games last yr, they won the division by 2 games in 2007 and the yankees had the division by 2 games in 2004. 3 games in the grand scheme of things is huge, and that is a per season difference.


Good post Jacksonian. I agree that Papelbon is elite, I think everyone else does too. The problem is that he may demand a king's ransom and the Sox aren't likely to pay it. They would much prefer to do a longer, more reasonable deal a la Lester, Pedroia, Youkilis and they would have prefered to start that yesterday, or the day before. Papelbon is clearly taking a risk and in the process he's initially saving the Sox money, but will get his payday at the end if he stays healthy and productive.

I won't be one of the people jumping off a cliff if Papelbon leaves BOS for NYY, because I can see that scenario coming years in advance and am prepared for it already. I understand and support the Sox not paying over value for FAs (especially when they offer those FAs lots of money years before they would make it otherwise and offer them some very well paid job security). Until they get completely burned by the strategy of not paying above all other team's FA prices I just won't worry about it.

I could also see a team like the Cubs paying a lot of money for a guy like Papelbon if they still haven't won their WS. They have lacked that consistency at the back of their pen, they have the money...

[a700hitter]

Good post Jacksonian. I agree that Papelbon is elite, I think everyone else does too. The problem is that he may demand a king's ransom and the Sox aren't likely to pay it. They would much prefer to do a longer, more reasonable deal a la Lester, Pedroia, Youkilis and they would have prefered to start that yesterday, or the day before. Papelbon is clearly taking a risk and in the process he's initially saving the Sox money, but will get his payday at the end if he stays healthy and productive. He can demand a King's Ransom, but this is a business and he is only get the market price for an elite closer. Look at jacko's list. The salaries of those guys is the market. He may get a little more than most of them, because he has done better. There's only one team that has disregard for market values--the Yankees. The rest of the teams have no interest in reseting the market, because it would have a detrimental downstream effect of increasing the market values of their other players. Unless the Yankees blow away the market, Papelbon will get a market value contract. The Sox are in a better position than most teams to pay market value.

[example1]

He can demand a King's Ransom, but this is a business and he is only get the market price for an elite closer. Look at jacko's list. The salaries of those guys is the market. He may get a little more than most of them, because he has done better. There's only one team that has disregard for market values--the Yankees. The rest of the teams have no interest in reseting the market, because it would have a detrimental downstream effect of increasing the market values of their other players. Unless the Yankees blow away the market, Papelbon will get a market value contract. The Sox are in a better position than most teams to pay market value.

For the most part I agree with you (wow, shocker!! :lol: ) I guess I should have said "Sox Value" instead of "Market Value", because:
1) the Sox set a value for their players and tend to stick to it. I would argue that plenty of teams exceed market value all the time in order to convince a player to sign with them, even if only by $1-2m a year, and

2) Value is relative to the current quality of the team. As we've discussed so many times before, a team that is likely to make the playoffs doesn't have as much to gain financially from a big-ticket player as a team that is on the cusp of making the playoffs (playoffs is like gold, financially). The Sox may see Papelbon's wins as the difference between winning the division/cementing the WC, or they may think they can replace it elsewhere. Long story short, Papelbon's value to the Red Sox is higher than to a team like the Royals, and could be lower than to a team like, say, the Angels, Cardinals or Cubs, where his 3-6 extra wins could mean multiple years of playoff appearances.

It might therefore be in the Cubs interest to pay above whatever other teams are willing to offer to get the guy that they want. Similarily, I would argue that the Mets saw K-Rod not as a FA in a vacuum, but as a final piece to their bullpen troubles which have haunted them and kept them from reaching their potential.

The Sox are likely to see Papelbon similarily to what Jacko presented him: about 3 wins above the "average-good" closer, maybe 1-2 wins above a guy like Bobby Jenks, maybe 6-8 Wins above Replacement Closer, maybe more, maybe less.

Then they will look at those wins and see what they should spend for those wins above the cost of the average FA closer and offer that amount. Anything above that amount and, IMO, they will believe they are just throwing money down the FA toilet.

[a700hitter]

I look at it from a different perspective. I think you have to look at the total invested in team payroll. If the payroll is between $125-140 million annually and it is likely that a division or playoff spot could be decided by 3-4 games, spending an additional $2-3 million annually on a closer that is most likely to get you those wins would seem like a prudent investment. You would be increasing payroll by around 2.5% to give the team a great chance of going to the playoffs and competing for the championship.

[Dipre]

I hated them. I was a righty hitter, but I was much more like a lefty in that I loved the ball low and in. I could turn on that just as well as anyone out there. There was a pitcher from U Hartford that I grew up with. He was a 5'6" lefty who threw high 80s, but every one of his fastballs seemed to rise as he was throwing them. They didnt actually rise though, it was just that his spin and motion caused the ball to not drop as much as a standard pitch would. So while it looks like its rising, it is an optical illusion because your mind is assuming the ball will drop with gravity like everything else. So when it is dropping at a slightly slower rate it looked like it was rising right out of his hand. It was amazing. Every ball he threw looked like a cockshot and every time I swung, the ball ended up at chin level. If paps has that pitch at 96mph and from batter reactions it looks like he does, then I dont know how people lay off it or hit it

I feel you, i'm a lefty, but i like high inside fastballs, and there's this old timer who lives around my house and he throws 102 MPH in underhand softball and it always looks like it's rising, i have never once been able to make contact with that rising fastball.

In all honesty you could say he's my "daddy", in 10 ABs, he's K'ed me 9 times lol.

[a700hitter]

For the most part I agree with you (wow, shocker!! :lol: ) I guess I should have said "Sox Value" instead of "Market Value", because:
1) the Sox set a value for their players and tend to stick to it. I would argue that plenty of teams exceed market value all the time in order to convince a player to sign with them, even if only by $1-2m a year, I don't disagree, but what happened to this process when they signed Lugo (who had been benched in LA) or even when they signed Drew? They do at times spend a little foolishly.

[Rdsxmbnt]

I don't disagree, but what happened to this process when they signed Lugo (who had been benched in LA) or even when they signed Drew? They do at times spend a little foolishly.

I don't think they left the process with either of those guys. People have to remember that while Lugo had a horrible ~150 AB for the Dodgers, he also had a .870 OPS in ~270 AB for the Rays. And before that he was a pretty consistent .760 OPS SS who had already proved himself in the AL East. For all intents and purposes 9mil was not that bad for what we were expecting. The team guessed that the previous 1500 AB before his stint in LA were what we were going to get. They guessed wrong, it happens, but I dont see a breakdown in philosophy here.

Same with Drew, who has actually been pretty good when he's played. We knew he was a risk to miss some time, and he has, but that was a calculated risk as with every move this organization makes.

[example1]

Same with Drew, who has actually been pretty good when he's played. We knew he was a risk to miss some time, and he has, but that was a calculated risk as with every move this organization makes.

I think Drew flies under the radar, but I have to say that I'm really glad the Sox have him. He has produced steadily over the time that he's been with the Sox, he comes up with big hits (because he's consistent, not clutch necessarily), he plays a solid and difficult RF in Fenway, he can hit anywhere in the top 5 spots in the order, he has been able to manage a .388 OBP in BOS (in a tough league), and although his OPS of .857 is somewhat below his career averages, it is pretty good. Furthermore, in 2007 (nearly half of his BOS ABs) he had a pretty weak .796 OPS, and he managed to salvage his season with post-season performance. His 2008 (.927) and 2009 (.871) are both very good seasons.

Overall, Drew has been steady and is the type of player who doesn't seem phased by pressure, good pitchers, playoffs, etc., He's a bit injured/not tough for my tastes, but overall I wouldn't call his contract an albatross the way I would have in 2007.

[BoSox21]

I think people for the most part made up their minds about Drew the day the contract was signed and the pitiful .423 SLG he had in 2007. Boston fans above all like guys to appear to go all out and wear their hearts on their sleeve and if fans stepped back and looked at Drew's numbers during his tenure here without putting a face or name on the numbers, they'd see a pretty damn solid RFer.

[Coco's Disciples]

I think people for the most part made up their minds about Drew the day the contract was signed and the pitiful .423 SLG he had in 2007. Boston fans above all like guys to appear to go all out and wear their hearts on their sleeve and if fans stepped back and looked at Drew's numbers during his tenure here without putting a face or name on the numbers, they'd see a pretty damn solid RFer.

Unfortunately this is true for a lot of people. Others, myself included, realize that JD Drew is the man. And he most certainly is.

[schillingouttheks]

Long live JD Drew. I haven't changed my avatar in awhile.

[Dojji]

In my mind, Drew earned his entire contract with the 14 Million Dollar Grand Slam. The game was a blowout, but if Drew fails in that spot I'm not sure it is one, and Carmona was great that year. The grannie made forcing a Game 7 a snap and ultimately was a big factor in getting us to the Series.

If he keeps killing the ball in the postseason like he did in 2007 and 2008 I see no reason why Drew's tenure in Boston won't be considered at least a mixed success.

[Mr Crunchy]

As long as hes on the field hes very helpful, better than helpful.
hes allstar material but for 14M shouldnt he be allstar material?
The problem with this guy has never really been his production, its been his inability to stay on the field.
This year hes been steady on his feet but every time he runs something down you can hear the suction of an entire region holding their breath....anticipating a calamity and the strained back, neck,quad or hammy that follows...135 games is all Im asking for, if he plays that many games he will put up great #s,score a ton of runs and work pitchers deep into counts..
He is a legit #2 hitter with his big OBP#s

[YAZMAN]

He is a legit #2 hitter with his big OBP#s

And with the number of pitches he sees as well. I like him in the #2 hole although I think it's a tad bit of a waste power wise.

[BoSox21]

hes allstar material but for 14M shouldnt he be allstar material?


His production in Boston has just about been right in line with what he's done over his career. Is it Drew's fault that his salary is what it is or is it the FO's fault? They paid all-star money for a guy who isn't an all-star.

[Dipre]

JD Drew is God.

Carry on.

[Dojji]

all time Red Sox saves leader

[BSN07]

I love Papelbon. But he isn't pitching that good this year. I mentioned this earlier but I'm starting to feel more confident about it. I think there is a good chance Papelbon gets dealt this off season. And Bard assumes the Closers role.


Papelbon is an elite closer. But is getting very expensive. And the way he has pitched this year doesn't help either. He has 25 saves, but it seems he fills up the bases and then most times finds some way to get out of it. Last night was one of the nights he couldn't recover.

I say sell high on him. You could get a very good player or package for Papelbon right now. I bet there would be a few teams the Sox could get to overpay. Just a thought.

[BoSox21]

and they say Boston fans arent reactionary...

[BSN07]

and they say Boston fans arent reactionary...

Well to be fair. I mentioned him as a future trade candidate early this off season.

He wants huge money and won't sign an extension. His numbers have gone down this year. Why no try and trade him before he jumps ship and cashes in his lotto ticket in NY?:D

[SoxSport]

I heard some talk he isn't throwing his splitter. That could make a difference. Last night, the fielder's indifference hurt. That should not be in a save situation. It shows too much hubris. And then the defensive breakdown at SS. Where was Lowrie?-- in the late innings? And why wasn't LaRoche, a hot hitter, playing against the RHP? That's why they traded for him! Tito's response was he wanted to see Lowell play 3 straight games. Wonder what the FO thought about that. I've never thought game managing was Tito's strong suit--for all his other qualities.

Pap may be showing some wear and tear--natural for any top closer. He needs some help--from Bard. If you are going to throw 4 relievers out there every game for 1 inning each, you need at least 12 pitchers. Maybe 13.

[Mr Crunchy]

Nick Green says hello, what a fucking abortion last night, just plain bad baseball from the pitcher to the shortstop, does paplebon feel compelled to give us all shit pains every time he gets the ball?
This aint nessesary and Nick Green really needs to find some other place to fuck up other than in the 9th inning with men on base.

[Mr Crunchy]

Saito closed well in LA for a couple of years and Bard has been great but this is paplebons team and last night was a blown chance and a classic fuckbag of an inning.

[Jacoby_Ellsbury]

I actually agree with BSN. Closers are very replacable. Trade Papelbon to some team who reveres the closer and is willing to part with very valuable assets to acquire such a mystical force.

Just do it at season's end.

[TheKilo]

I love the people blame Nick Green for the loss last night but the fact is it was Papelbon who walked Cust after getting him down 1-2 and it was Papelbon who gave up a near HR to Tommy Boy.

He's pitched like shit and was due for one of these outings, and the thing is I don't think this will be the only one in the second half.

All I can say is I'm really glad he's decided to go year to year. His new pitching mechanics have really fucked him up.

[Looch Ness Monster]

I actually agree with BSN. Closers are very replacable. Trade Papelbon to some team who reveres the closer and is willing to part with very valuable assets to acquire such a mystical force.

Just do it at season's end.

Nobody will trade valuable assets for a closer. You think the fans of the Boston Red Sox are the only people who are noticing Papelbon's subpar performances? Other teams are watching.

[Jacoby_Ellsbury]

Nobody will trade valuable assets for a closer. You think the fans of the Boston Red Sox are the only people who are noticing Papelbon's subpar performances? Other teams are watching.
a) Closers like Papelbon don't hit the market everyday.

b) I think any team interested will look at his track record more than his current performance.

[VA Sox Fan]

I love the people blame Nick Green for the loss last night but the fact is it was Papelbon who walked Cust after getting him down 1-2 and it was Papelbon who gave up a near HR to Tommy Boy.

He's pitched like shit and was due for one of these outings, and the thing is I don't think this will be the only one in the second half.

All I can say is I'm really glad he's decided to go year to year. His new pitching mechanics have really fucked him up.


I blame Papelbon more than Green. But both of their timing sucked.

I jokingly said to my boyfriend when he was throw his warm up pitches on the mound, Paps will give up 2 runs and load the bases but will manage to get out of it. WRONG!

I never feel good when he comes in anymore. Hope he figures out the problem.

[Mr Crunchy]

I wouldnt cash in all my Paplebon chips just yet, the man is closing in THE most difficult division in the game and still has a sub 2 era with 3 blown out of what 27-28 saves?
Nick Green didnt lose the game but Christ almighty this is MLB and I expect a lot more from a ss.
If he cant throw to 1st with confidence I dont see much use for him, Jed Lowrie isnt winning the job but Green is making it easy for him

[TheKilo]

b) I think any team interested will look at his track record more than his current performance.

Why?

[Mr Crunchy]

Dont underestimate the value of a closer, Keith Foulke circa 2004 made a lot of people forget the closer by committe in 2003 and the Calvin Schiraldi/Bob Stanley duet of 1986 that sent 1000s of women to shelters statewide..
Think NY would have been so successful without Rivera?
Or the Phils last year with Lidge?..It goes on and on so I wont bore you.
We will need a healthy and effective Paplebon if we hope for October success, this is a fact of life that we should get straight now and I dont see any chance at all of anyone not named Paplebon getting the ball in the 9th with the lead. Next year maybe different and I would also expect the sox to allow him to leave on his own no matter what when this contract is up but for the time being Jon Paps is our closer and we should be grateful we got him.

[VA Sox Fan]

I love Paps. Just hope he figures out what the hell is going wrong.

[Mr Crunchy]

Perhaps one of his cousins got knocked up and hes waiting to hear from State of Louisiana about the pending paternity suit?

[VA Sox Fan]

Perhaps one of his cousins got knocked up and hes waiting to hear from State of Louisiana about the pending paternity suit?


:lol:

[Jacoby_Ellsbury]

Why?
He's having his first relatively rocky season in four years closing. Does this somehow mean he's finished?

[TheKilo]

He's having his first relatively rocky season in four years closing. Does this somehow mean he's finished?

I wouldn't call it "relatively rocky", for this reason:

Year|IP|K|BB|K/BB
2005|34|34|17|2.00
2006|68.1|75|13|5.77
2007|58.1|84|15|5.60
2008|69.1|77|8|9.63
2009|43|45|20|2.25

It's very, very troubling. I still fear he's hiding an arm injury, or he is at the very least messing up his mechanics to avoid injury with greatly reduced results.

He is not the same pitcher he was from 2006-2008. Closer's shelf lives are very short anyways, it wouldn't shock me if Papelbon is out of baseball altogether in two or three years.

[Jacoby_Ellsbury]

I wouldn't call it "relatively rocky", for this reason:

[table]Year|IP|K|BB|K/BB
2005|34|34|17|2.00
2006|68.1|75|13|5.77
2007|58.1|84|15|5.60
2008|69.1|77|8|9.63
2009|43|45|20|2.25

It's very, very troubling. I still fear he's hiding an arm injury, or he is at the very least messing up his mechanics to avoid injury with greatly reduced results.

He is not the same pitcher he was from 2006-2008. Closer's shelf lives are very short anyways, it wouldn't shock me if Papelbon is out of baseball altogether in two or three years.

Easy to misinterpret that; what I meant by relatively rocky was, this is the first season you call his performance even relatively rocky.

[TheKilo]

Fair point, it is very rocky compared to all of his other seasons.

Like I said earlier, it makes me grateful he wants to go year to year.

[Dojji]

I wouldn't call it "relatively rocky", for this reason:

Year|IP|K|BB|K/BB
2005|34|34|17|2.00
2006|68.1|75|13|5.77
2007|58.1|84|15|5.60
2008|69.1|77|8|9.63
2009|43|45|20|2.25

It's very, very troubling. I still fear he's hiding an arm injury, or he is at the very least messing up his mechanics to avoid injury with greatly reduced results.

He is not the same pitcher he was from 2006-2008. Closer's shelf lives are very short anyways, it wouldn't shock me if Papelbon is out of baseball altogether in two or three years.

Frankly, if you don't have the prior 3 years to compare, Papelbon's 2009 is still a well above average season for a relief pitcher. I'm not too worried about Paps long term, at least not yet. He's still pitching well enough to close for Boston, it's just that he's not out of this world awesome anymore.

[TheKilo]

But we do. That's the point. This team was constructed under the belief that Papelbon would be out of this world awesome and be the guy to lock down games late.

That drop in K/BB is simply startling to me.

[Dojji]

It's still more than a strikeout an inning.

[YAZMAN]

But we do. That's the point. This team was constructed under the belief that Papelbon would be out of this world awesome and be the guy to lock down games late.

That drop in K/BB is simply startling to me.

Simply put, it's because he can't throw his splitter.

[Mr Crunchy]

Simply put, it's because he can't throw his splitter.

Well not for strikes at least and when you have to throw 4 fastballs in a row to get people out its a ticking time bomb waiting for you on the 5th pitch

[Teddyballgame10]

I thought he said he stopped throwing it b.c of the stress on his arm? If thats true its pussy shit and he'll never be affective again

[jacksonianmarch]

A splitter is one of the most damaging pitches in the game on the elbow.

[Teddyballgame10]

A splitter is one of the most damaging pitches in the game on the elbow.

I know but you cant just stop throwing it when your getting smoked like this.

[TheKilo]

I know but you cant just stop throwing it when your getting smoked like this.

Papelbon owes you nothing.

[Dipre]

A splitter is one of the most damaging pitches in the game on the elbow.

Yes, we know that ,sir.

Just like we know jumping into a pool makes you wet, captain obvious.

Oh, and memo to Papelbon: We don't give a fuck about your "Elbow protection so i can make the big bucks program".

The split:

Fucking throw it, fucker.

[Teddyballgame10]

Papelbon owes you nothing.

What about the team moron.

[Dipre]

What about the team moron.

Sarcasm. Detect it.

[BoSox21]

for what it's worth, Papelbon's line in his last four appearances:

4.2 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 6 K

[a700hitter]

for what it's worth, Papelbon's line in his last four appearances:

4.2 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 6 KAnd nobody here wants to pay him what he's worth to keep him.

[Dipre]

And nobody here wants to pay him what he's worth to keep him.

I bet if they just paid the man his money he'd start throwing the split again.

Thing i've noticed, he's actually throwing the split, albeit sporadically, as a show-me pitch.

Not enough to use as an out pitch, but it's again in the hitters' mind.

[TheKilo]

And nobody here wants to pay him what he's worth to keep him.

He's the one that wants to go year to year, not the Sox.

[jacksonianmarch]

He's the one that wants to go year to year, not the Sox.

That is what comes out in the public. I am pretty sure Paps would take a long term deal if the Sox offered him one. Remember, there were discussions a yr or so back where Paps was looking for a big contract, it never came. That is when he said he is fine going yr to yr

[a700hitter]

He's the one that wants to go year to year, not the Sox.When he becomes a FA, he will want a long term contract.

[SoxSport]

I can't figure why the Sox seem to freely overspend with some FAs, often foolishly, and then become tight with their own successful players. Both Pap and Bay should be signed before they even get close to the FA market, because their price may well go sky high. Bay has slumped lately, and that has made the delay in extending him in their favor. But you know he is going to get to his career averages before the season is out. They have to realize they aren't going to get him for Youks money--it's not the same situation. As for Pap, he deserves his payday, off what he has done--for sure.

[Dipre]

I can't figure why the Sox seem to freely overspend with some FAs, often foolishly, and then become tight with their own successful players. Both Pap and Bay should be signed before they even get close to the FA market, because their price may well go sky high. Bay has slumped lately, and that has made the delay in extending him in their favor. But you know he is going to get to his career averages before the season is out. They have to realize they aren't going to get him for Youks money--it's not the same situation. As for Pap, he deserves his payday, off what he has done--for sure.

This.

[Dojji]

I can't figure why the Sox seem to freely overspend with some FAs, often foolishly, and then become tight with their own successful players. Both Pap and Bay should be signed before they even get close to the FA market, because their price may well go sky high. Bay has slumped lately, and that has made the delay in extending him in their favor. But you know he is going to get to his career averages before the season is out. They have to realize they aren't going to get him for Youks money--it's not the same situation. As for Pap, he deserves his payday, off what he has done--for sure.

Statistical myth fail.

he might very possibly hit up to his career average level or better for the remainder of the season but to expect a down season to round up into an average season simply because that's the average kind of season a player has is failthought.

[Dipre]

Statistical myth fail.

he might very possibly hit up to his career average level or better for the remainder of the season but to expect a down season to round up into an average season simply because that's the average kind of season a player has is failthought.

Gonna make juice with those cherries?

[Looch Ness Monster]

Since this is the catch all PAPELBON thread..did anybody see Jonathan making public demands for his brother Josh to be traded or promoted a few days ago? It kinda went under the radar..probably because Josh is a bum that will never make it to bigs but still..wow..



Single A Salem reliever Josh Papelbon, the younger brother of Jonathan Papelbon, is unhappy that he has not been promoted and wants an opportunity to pitch for a different organization, Jonathan said.

"We've talked to Theo [Epstein] about it,'' Jonathan said. "It's already out in the open.''

Josh, a submarine-style pitcher, is 3-1 with a 3.32 ERA this season. He is in his second year at Single A Advanced and, at 26, is the second-oldest player on the team. His frustration bubbled lately, Jonathan said, because his recent string of success has not prompted the Sox to promote him. In seven of his last 10 outings, Josh has not allowed an earned run.

"He's been throwing scoreless inning after scoreless inning, and they're not bringing him up,'' Jonathan said. "He's ready to move on.''

http://www.boston.com/sports/baseball/redsox/articles/2009/08/09/lowrie_on_dl_with_nerve_injury_in_his_wrist/?page=2

[BoSox21]

a 26 year old with a 3.32 in single A isn't that great

not allowing an ER in 7 of his last 10 outings isn't that great

therefore Josh Papelbon isn't that great. let him go.

[redsoxrules]

a 26 year old with a 3.32 in single A isn't that great

not allowing an ER in 7 of his last 10 outings isn't that great

therefore Josh Papelbon isn't that great. let him go.

LOL well said

[BSN07]

Latest from Frodo,


Rosenthal's source describes a Jonathan Papelbon trade as "pretty unrealistic

Frodo's "Reverse lock" is on Papelbon is gone the winter lol

[ORS]

The Scribe from the Shire's reverse lock is weaksauce compared to your trade scenario reverse lock kung fu. Papelbon retires with the Sox.

[BSN07]

The Scribe from the Shire's reverse lock is weaksauce compared to your trade scenario reverse lock kung fu. Papelbon retires with the Sox.

:lol: That one may be my favorite so far:thumbsup:

[SCM33]

a 26 year old with a 3.32 in single A isn't that great

not allowing an ER in 7 of his last 10 outings isn't that great

therefore Josh Papelbon isn't that great. let him go.

They do Jon a favor by drafting his brother just for shits and giggles, then Jon demands that his unskilled overraged, outmatched brother be promoted? Ugh, just shut up and close out ballgames....one day, just like your younger brother, will be out of the organization.

[Dojji]

In fairness, Jon never demanded anything. All he did was answer a question to a mediaman about a member of his family.

And we're not even sure Josh demanded anything. The closest we have is an unqouted, unsourced statement by one report that said that Josh was discontented with still being in Salem.

[SoxSport]

Pap seems to have become media fodder. He has to learn how to talk to the media. Teams should give lessons to their players on how to do that. If Pap wants a few tips, just ask the manager. Tito plays the media like a fiddle.

[RWTP24]

Pap seems to have become media fodder. He has to learn how to talk to the media. Teams should give lessons to their players on how to do that. If Pap wants a few tips, just ask the manager. Tito plays the media like a fiddle.

I agree 100%.. He is really saying things he should not be saying. It is going to hurt him in the long run, IMO.

[RWTP24]

a 26 year old with a 3.32 in single A isn't that great

not allowing an ER in 7 of his last 10 outings isn't that great

therefore Josh Papelbon isn't that great. let him go.

LOL, you guys are funny...