How to beat the Rays?

[example1]

This may come off as a rant, but I'm curious what my other intelligent posters have to contribute:

If Theo were to focus exclusively on helping this team to beat the Rays, what would he need to do? Improve the offense? Improve the Starting Pitching? Improve the Bullpen? How about improving defensively? Could that make the difference?

Let me explain further where I'm coming from:

Here's how I break down the teams currently:

Offense: Even

The Sox have built a team on OBP, professional ABs and consistency. The Rays have built their team on atheleticism, power and youth. Over the long run I would rather have TBs offense, and I might prefer it currently. At the same time, it is hard to argue with the ABs guys like Pedroia, Youkilis, Bay, Drew and Lowell will provide day in and day out. A draw in my eyes, two devistatingly good offenses.

Starting Pitching: top 3, slight edge to TB, top 5, slight edge to BOS.

This is a close one for me, and not a call I make lightly. I think both Kazmir and Beckett have #1 type electric stuff but neither has shown it consistently for the last year +. I think Lester and Shields should both be solid #2s, but Shields has been more consistent with less stellar stuff for a longer time and has the edge. If Lester can put it all together he should be the better pitcher, but just isn't right now. Garza showed that he can be a big game pitcher last year and his stuff is more overpowering than Dice-Ks. Dice can get guys out and has shown that he is not to be taken lightly. On their bad days I'd take Dice to work his way through it, but on their best days I think Garza is harder to hit (still very, very close). Sonnanstine and Niemann I think are pretty beatable, and I would rather have Wakefield and Penny, but in their 9 meetings so far this year, a pitcher other than Shields, Garza and Kazmir has only started once--the Sox don't seem to see much of those other guys... hopefully that will change and they will get a shot at the fleshy underbelly.

Bullpen: Edge Red Sox

I don't think there's much question here. The Sox pen is filthy on paper and in real life and as long as guys like Lopez don't get the ball at crunch time, they should be in good shape. With guys like Masterson (starting currently) and Bard (literally blowing guys away) as potential late-season add ons, this one seems like an easy call.

Defense: wash, lean TB

I'm not sure how to even judge this, to be honest (perhaps someone can help). I've watched a lot of both teams and both teams seem to make most of the plays. I'm sure there's stats that would lean it one way or the other, but I don't think it is obvious. TB has better speed and arms in the OF, but is younger and seems to make poor choices and some bonehead defensive plays, especially Upton in CF... again, not sold on leaning TB, just feel that way.


So what can the Sox do to make a significant impact on this rivalry? To me, it seems that if they can beat the Rays consistently, they will be the best team in baseball.

The answer that comes to my mind is obvious: adding another quality SP.

In my opinion, the Sox will continue to be a 90+ win team for the foreseeable future with their current team. They are simply better than most other teams by a pretty significant margin. They just arent significantly better than TB in the areas that matter most. Adding another top flight pitcher would be more beneficial in the Sox vs. Rays rivalry than adding another power bat--even with Papi being shitty as he currently is, even with a hole at SS and at catcher. Even with those things, either team seems capable of scoring runs against any of the other teams pitchers on any given night. That's why I think that adding a different SP--someone the Rays haven't become accustomed to yet--could change things up a bit.

What names do I think could accomplish that? Hard to tell. I think Buchholz has stuff that is as good as almost anyone, but so does Price, so they may ultimately negate each other and have a big impact on this rivalry.

If the Sox really wanted to improve their hand for the foreseeable future they would need to land someone who is electric and overpowering--otherwise they will be in this position for years and years. Perhaps a healthy John Smoltz for 2009 could be that guy temporarily. He's certainly cunning enough to keep hitters on their toes, and he doesn't hurt himself with walks... but at 40+ it would only be short term.

I've said before that I would love for them to go aggressively after a guy like Felix Hernandez from Seattle. I can think of other pitchers with stuff that is as good currently (Greinke, Lincecum, Webb, etc.,) but I can't think of many who combine it with that frame and who might be available.

Am I way off base here? Do others agree that adding a SP would be more beneficial than adding offensive production? Are there other guys who might be available next year or through trade that could change up the Sox losing ways against the Rays?

Sorry for the long post, I'm just curious if people are as fed-up with the Sox losing to the Rays as I am...

[Jacoby_Ellsbury]

Put anthrax in their lockers.

[Dipre]

What we need is our SPs to round into form, because the reason the Rays are owning us, is because they're owning our starters, specially Lester, who has an ERA of "it's over 9,000!" against them, but i suppose that as Beckett finds his groove, Dice-K comes back and Lester starts staying low in the zone we should be able to beat them in a much more consistent basis.

[ORS]

I think defense is more than a slight edge to Tampa. Their OFs are superior at tracking down fly balls in LF and RF. Their IF defense features a GG at 1st, like ours, a 2B that is about the same as ours, a much better SS, and a 3B with superior range and arm.

However, what Theo apparently needs to do is shove shamrocks up the collective team's ass or something. Well, at least the pitching staff's. Our pitchers have suffered to a .368 BABIP against them this year, the highest by far of any team we've faced. You ever recall thinking, "Damn, everything falls in for this team against us"? Well, it kind of does. Their HRs become killers because people are on from their shit finding a hole.

DipreG is right, our pitchers could pitch a bit better, but they could use the other side of the luck coin coming up in their favor also.

[Lil D-Ped]

I would also like to see what Buccholz can do this year, and Smoltz if he can pitch at all this year, should be a nice addition to our rotation, and Dice K is coming back soon so that should be good for us.

I honestly have no idea where the Sox need to improve on the beat the Rays.. Papi-type hitter? Youk and Bay is producing like crazy. Not bullpen, defense is fine imo, do we need a shortstop? Not necessarily to beat that one team.

Funny thing is, the fact that we are talking about how to beat the Rays now states that Yankees are not the biggest foe we face in AL East now. Rays are. I find that kind of funny to see how bad the Yankees are sliding down even with their spending spree.

[Coco's Disciples]

The Yanks will be back, but since we're 5-0 against them and 3-6 against the Rays, it makes sense.

[BSN07]

The Red Sox need to get as enthusiastic about playing the Rays, as the Rays do for playing the Sox. Just like the Sox get up for playing the Yanks. They need to bring the same focus and determination. Sometimes I think the Sox still don't take TB serious.

[das11209]

Red Sox have a mental block against Tampa that they must overcome. Game 7 loss last year was a big shock and I think they have not overcome it yet. Tampa is not as good as last year - and our players need to realize that.

[chakes17]

Well if Carl Crawford and Longoria weren't on rays it would be a lot easier.

[BSN07]

Red Sox have a mental block against Tampa that they must overcome. Game 7 loss last year was a big shock and I think they have not overcome it yet. Tampa is not as good as last year - and our players need to realize that.

Their BP is the Achilles heel of TB. Everything else is pretty good IMO.

[Rdsxmbnt]

Well if Carl Crawford and Longoria weren't on rays it would be a lot easier.

You wouldn't happen to know the meaning of life would you?

[BoSox21]

It's not a mental block or anything. Tampa's SP is aware of the Sox ability to go deep into counts and wear out pitchers so their guys simply pitch aggressively. They all have great stuff so the Sox wind up whiffing more often than not.

So while their pitchers shut us down, they have a very stellar offense that hits for average, hits for power and runs the bases well so unless our pitchers keep them off the bases, they'll do damage.

[example1]

So I've seen:

-Another power hitter
-Get more excited against the Rays (like against the Yankees)
-Take the Rays more seriously
-Relief pitching
-Luck

I'm hopeful it is more of the last one than anything else. ORS makes a good point with the BABIP, but I'm not sure how to adjust for that. Having watched the games I can think of a few lucky hits that have fallen in (how about Crawford's "triple" the other day--a pop fly that bounced on the LF line, over a sliding Jason Bay and coming to rest at the base of the Monster--that's a triple for crawford, an out for other players and a foul ball with a different ump). Next hitter flies out to RF and its an easy run. Sox haven't had many runs like that against TB.

I don't buy into the "Sox don't respect the Rays enough" thing. I think they do. I think they took game 7 seriously last year and it can't be lost on them that EVERY ONE of the Sox pitchers has been systematically destroyed by the Rays at one point or another over the past few years.

One hope I have is that with the Rays newfound success they will find it much more difficult to draft the stellar crop of players they have recently. Sorry, but Evan Longoria won't be sitting at the 25th pick and neither will Upton or Price. They will still have a shot at some good players--just like the Sox do--but its much more of a crap shoot. A team with a low payroll and some missed drafts can set itself back pretty well. THey've mitigated that by signing some of their guys to longer term deals (Longoria in particular) but still, in 3 years they shouldn't have the cost-controlled All Star caliber talent pouring into the system anymore.

[Looch Ness Monster]

I really think that our biggest problem as a team at the moment is our starting pitching. Everybody knew the bullpen would be the backbone of the team but I think people also believed that the legs of the team was the starting pitching. It's been one of the most disgraceful rotations in the league. The Rays jump on us early with tremendous energy and put the game away in the 4th or 5th inning.

We need to get better efforts from Lester and Beckett first of all. Then when Dice-K is healthy, we need better efforts from him. Tim Wakefield isn't going to carry a sub-3.00 ERA for the entire season. And he isn't going to be a horse, he's going to eventually go to the DL with a shoulder or back injury.

[example1]

Well, a start is that Daniel Bard has been called up for tonights game.

http://soxblog.projo.com/2009/05/daniel-bard-cal.html

[Coco's Disciples]

Well, a start is that Daniel Bard has been called up for tonights game.

http://soxblog.projo.com/2009/05/daniel-bard-cal.html

!

[Jasonbay44]

Well, a start is that Daniel Bard has been called up for tonights game.

http://soxblog.projo.com/2009/05/daniel-bard-cal.htmlAwesome, maybe Lopez will be gone!

[BSN07]

Awesome, maybe Lopez will be gone!

One can only hope.

[Jasonbay44]

Lopez has been DFA
http://boston.redsox.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20090510&content_id=4658746&vkey=news_bos&fext=.jsp&c_id=bos


The Red Sox have purchased the contract of Bard from Triple-A Pawtucket and will activate him for Sunday's game. They cleared a spot on the 40-man roster by designating left-handed reliever Javier Lopez for assignment.

Great news

[Jacoby_Ellsbury]

Lopez has been DFA
http://boston.redsox.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20090510&content_id=4658746&vkey=news_bos&fext=.jsp&c_id=bos


Great news
FUCK YES FUCK YES FUCK YES FUCK YES IM GOING TO GO GET HAMMERED TONIGHT OH FUCK FUCK YEAH!!!@!!!!

[TheKilo]

Execute the fucking scouting report against Evan Longoria.

[example1]

Execute the fucking scouting report against Evan Longoria.

This brief comment actually highlights something I was thinking about while watching tonights game. The Sox used to really struggle with Scott Kazmir, but they seem to have figured him out much better over the past two seasons or so. I'm hopeful that the same process will happen with Garza (who seems to be the current Sox killer).

[Mr Crunchy]

Seems to me that if you keep Crawford off the bases and keep longoria in the park then we got a pop against them...Offensively you need to be real patient with Kazmir and Shields then hope we dont see Matt fukin Garza again in our lifetimes.

[Dojji]

You realize we'll never go much of anywhere unless the rotation steps it up more than a little, right?

[rhet]

Seems to me that if you keep Crawford off the bases and keep longoria in the park then we got a pop against them...Offensively you need to be real patient with Kazmir and Shields then hope we dont see Matt fukin Garza again in our lifetimes.

Play the infield half-way against Crawford. Would take away more than half his hits.

[Mr Crunchy]

Seems to me that if you keep Crawford off the bases and keep longoria in the park then we got a pop against them...

Obviously the pitching needs to be better than Saturday.

[satch9841]

What we need is our SPs to round into form, because the reason the Rays are owning us, is because they're owning our starters, specially Lester, who has an ERA of "it's over 9,000!" against them, but i suppose that as Beckett finds his groove, Dice-K comes back and Lester starts staying low in the zone we should be able to beat them in a much more consistent basis.
I agree. The starting pitching must improve and a helthy dice-k will help to that end. I purchased the last month of mlb xtra innings last year and all of this year and i am now prepared to make some observations. #1. The rays bring their A game every game vs sox. Their hitters take a lot of pitches and work the count like the sox. Their hitters tend to swing at bad pitches when NOT playing boston. Longoria does not hit pitches down in the zone well. In sox/ray games ray hitters see more mistake pitches than sox. Ray hitters tend to lay off offspeed pitches, so throwing a 1st pitch strike is a necessity vs them. Sox starters need to move the ball around more vs rays. Sox pitchers and francona must employ better defensive measures vs rays in regards to stolen bases. More and repeated throws to first AND just stepping off the rubber works well along with holding the ball. The # of stolen bases the sox are giving up is embarrassing isn't it. Crawford and upton and others will get some steals but the sox make it easy for them. The slide step is a possibility here to slow them down but not all pitchers are comfortable with it. So it is my thinking that better starting pitching along with a better plan to limit base stealing is the key. I also believe the rays have had quite a few breaks go their way, but u can't control that. Hopefully some things will go the sox way vs the rays.

[jacksonianmarch]

Saying that the sox have the edge over the Rays in terms of pitching staff is kinda overstating things, eh? Right now, the sox starters are 29th in the league in ERA, sitting at a dismal 5.90. Only last yr's champs are worse (Philly is at 6.17). Granted, TB isnt blowing the doors off teams, but they do hold a firm 0.82 edge over the sox in terms of starters ERA.

Second, I think the Rays are going to have a higher than normal BABIP mostly due to their speed. Guys like Crawford, Upton, Bartlett, Iwamura, and Navarro all can beat out the infield grounders, making them hell to get out of innings or to keep them from advancing.

Third, I would still take the sox offense over the long haul. The sox score more runs, have more power and are on base more.

Overall, I would consider the two teams pretty even when all things are considered. Defense, speed and starting pitching are in the Ray category. Bullpen, power and on base percentage are in the sox category.

[example1]

How big a difference does it make that Scott Kazmir seems to be a distant reminder of the former (fearsome) Kazmir?

Over the past year or so he just hasn't seemed like the same pitcher. This may have been predictable from a pitcher who had thrown more than 200 MLB innings by the time he was 21. His demise might be just the blessing the Sox need.

That said, the Rays were really smart to get Garza, and Shields is a good pitcher too. To me, with Kazmir of old they are the best team in the AL. With this Kazmir they are beatable 3 out of 5 nights. Big difference.

[Gom]

Some teams just play well against other teams. It's how teams matchup sometimes...plus, it's a long season. The last time the Red Sox started 5-0 against the Yankees was 1985, and that team won 97 or 98 games, if I remember correctly.

[example1]

Some teams just play well against other teams. It's how teams matchup sometimes...plus, it's a long season. The last time the Red Sox started 5-0 against the Yankees was 1985, and that team won 97 or 98 games, if I remember correctly.

You "remember" 1985? I thought you were younger than that? :dunno:

Anyway, I think Kazmir being ineffective is a huge victory for the Sox if he remains that way. He may not have owned the Yankees like he did the Sox, but he OWNED the Sox for a few years there.

[Dipre]

Saying that the sox have the edge over the Rays in terms of pitching staff is kinda overstating things, eh? Right now, the sox starters are 29th in the league in ERA, sitting at a dismal 5.90. Only last yr's champs are worse (Philly is at 6.17). Granted, TB isnt blowing the doors off teams, but they do hold a firm 0.82 edge over the sox in terms of starters ERA.

Second, I think the Rays are going to have a higher than normal BABIP mostly due to their speed. Guys like Crawford, Upton, Bartlett, Iwamura, and Navarro all can beat out the infield grounders, making them hell to get out of innings or to keep them from advancing.

Third, I would still take the sox offense over the long haul. The sox score more runs, have more power and are on base more.

Overall, I would consider the two teams pretty even when all things are considered. Defense, speed and starting pitching are in the Ray category. Bullpen, power and on base percentage are in the sox category.

Dioner Navarro is one of the slowest players in Major League Baseball, sir,

[a700hitter]

The way for the Red Sox to beat the Rays is by keeping Crawford off the bases. If you let him get on base 3 or 4 times, he will create some runs. Next, the lineup needs to work the count on the Rays starters and get them out of the game by the 6th inning to shift the pitching advantage back to Boston.

[BoSox21]

Next, the lineup needs to work the count on the Rays starters and get them out of the game by the 6th inning to shift the pitching advantage back to Boston.

Yup. The Rays starters have been very good at attacking the strike zone on Boston hitters and instead of fouling off those pitches in the zone, the hitters are putting some weak balls in play.

[Dipre]

Yup. The Rays starters have been very good at attacking the strike zone on Boston hitters and instead of fouling off those pitches in the zone, the hitters are putting some weak balls in play.

This is specially true against Matt Garza.

[SoxxyPants]

Think of the depth once smoltzie, kotsay, dice-k....everyone!!