Dojji
12-12-2008, 09:00 AM
Soxprospects.com is announcing that the Sox current plan is to start Kelly out this year as a pitcher.
His stuff is described by SP.com as low to mid 90's fastball and 2 good offspeed offerings, which is a nice start for a pitcher, but I can't help thinking that they're missing the point here.
Frankly, the maximum upsides are a wash in my eyes. Ace pitcher or 25 HR shortstop, take your pick, each one is equally rare and equally valuable.
The problem here is flameout potential, and the fact that pitchers have a lot more of it.
Kelly's a pretty decent fielder, if he picks up enough offensive skills to just get along as he develops, and improves his defense with practice and coaching he's going to have several chances to make the big leagues and let his talent come through simply by virtue of being a shortstop. Since he has some power, life as a Juan Uribe/Khalil Greene type would probably be good to him. I personally think he has much more ability than that but that seems to me to be his big league downside.
Pitchers are much more volatile. I mean, how many high-ceiling league arms did we see either flame out, fall apart, or suffer catastrophic injuries just in this organization the last year? I can think of three right off the top of my head. The risk of winding up with nothing at all is much greater, and since Kelly has stuff the universe has seen before I'm not sure what the slam dunk is that he'll even be that good as a pitcher. A skillsy teen with a 90's fastball and 2 good offspeed pitches is tempting, but a 25-HR shortstop is ALSO tempting so in my mind the tools cancel each other out and you have to go with what you think is the player's best chance to get there, and I don't honestly think Kelly's had enough time as a professional hitter to determine what that is.
Unless the organization really saw something in his hitting approach that disturbed them I think they made a mistake here by not giving Kelly a full season worth of chance at short.
His stuff is described by SP.com as low to mid 90's fastball and 2 good offspeed offerings, which is a nice start for a pitcher, but I can't help thinking that they're missing the point here.
Frankly, the maximum upsides are a wash in my eyes. Ace pitcher or 25 HR shortstop, take your pick, each one is equally rare and equally valuable.
The problem here is flameout potential, and the fact that pitchers have a lot more of it.
Kelly's a pretty decent fielder, if he picks up enough offensive skills to just get along as he develops, and improves his defense with practice and coaching he's going to have several chances to make the big leagues and let his talent come through simply by virtue of being a shortstop. Since he has some power, life as a Juan Uribe/Khalil Greene type would probably be good to him. I personally think he has much more ability than that but that seems to me to be his big league downside.
Pitchers are much more volatile. I mean, how many high-ceiling league arms did we see either flame out, fall apart, or suffer catastrophic injuries just in this organization the last year? I can think of three right off the top of my head. The risk of winding up with nothing at all is much greater, and since Kelly has stuff the universe has seen before I'm not sure what the slam dunk is that he'll even be that good as a pitcher. A skillsy teen with a 90's fastball and 2 good offspeed pitches is tempting, but a 25-HR shortstop is ALSO tempting so in my mind the tools cancel each other out and you have to go with what you think is the player's best chance to get there, and I don't honestly think Kelly's had enough time as a professional hitter to determine what that is.
Unless the organization really saw something in his hitting approach that disturbed them I think they made a mistake here by not giving Kelly a full season worth of chance at short.