The KiloMetric, Part Deux

[TheKilo]

I did this last year for the Sox and Yankees. I nailed the Sox prediction of 96 wins. The Yankees outperformed my expectations by four games (94 wins).

This season - a new team enters the fray. The Tampa Bay Rays have been a nuisance all season to the traditional powers of the American League East, and for the moment have shown no signs of slowing down. Being an inexperienced team who have never been in a pennant race before, it remains to be seen if they can handle the pressure.

How about the Yankees? Bias or not, they are the team in this stretch that improved themselves the most. Credit Cashman for getting Nady, Marte, and Rodriguez for a bunch of scrub minor leaguers and a shaky middle reliever. However, they did not improve their starting rotation. Wang is gone for the regular season and Hughes is still a few weeks away. Whether or not they can tread water with Pettitte, Mussina, Joba, and slop remains to be seen.

And finally, the Boston Red Sox. Trading away an icon, a former WS MVP, a fan favorite has left many scratching their heads. However, Manny Ramirez was not going to be the key to a potential repeat - the bullpen remains the biggest question. Their starting rotation has been solid (bumps from Buchholz notwithstanding), and they still have the postseason horse, Josh Beckett.

How will the final 50+ games play out? The best place to start would be the home/away splits the rest of the way for each team:

Team|Home Record|Away Record|Home Games Left|Away Games Left
Tampa Bay|43-16|23-28|22|30
New York|36-26|25-24|19|32
Boston|40-16|24-32|25|25

The Sox have the most home games of all of the three contending teams remaining. The Yankees have the least...but their home/away splits don't seem to affect them as much. The Rays have a lot of road games in September which will assuredly be the most important stretch of their season.

[TheKilo]

Another factor to consider is the three teams' pythagorean records, which are based off of the runs scored v. runs allowed for each team. (Courtesy BBref, as of yeaterday's games)

Team|Runs Scored|Runs Allowed|Actual Record|Pythag. Record|Difference
Tampa|488|438|65-44|60-49|+5
New York|524|474|60-50|60-50|0
Boston|552|459|63-48|65-46|-2

The strength of Tampa's resurgence has been their starting pitching. However, I have major concerns as to whether their young arms (specifically Garza and Shields) will be able to shoulder the load down the stretch. The Sox have room for improvement here but the big takeaway is the likelihood of a Tampa regression.

Lastly, we should look at the winning percentages for the opposition of these teams down the stretch. Again, these are as of the conclusion of yesterday's games:

Team|Opp. Win %
Tampa|.513
New York|.534
Boston|.517

The Yankees have the most difficult stretch remaining (most likely due to 7 more meetings with LAA). It will be interesting to see how this all plays out.

I will break down each team's schedules in subsequent posts.

[TheKilo]

THE TAMPA BAY RAYS (66-44)

Date|Opponent|Series Outcome|Record
8-4/8-6|CLE|2-1|68-45
8-7/8-10|@SEA|3-1|71-46
8/12-8/14|@OAK|2-1|73-47
8/15-8/17|@TEX|1-2|74-49
8/18-8/20|LAA|1-2|75-51
8/22-8/24|@CWS|1-2|76-53
8/26-8/28|TOR|2-1|78-54
8/29-8/31|BAL|3-0|81-54
9/2-9/4|NYY|1-2|82-56
9/5-9/7|@TOR|1-2|83-58
9/8-9/10|@BOS|1-2|84-60
9/12-9/14|@NYY|1-2|85-62
9/15-9/17|BOS|2-1|87-63
9/18-9/21|MIN|2-2|89-65
9/22-9/24|@BAL|3-1|92-66
9/25-9/28|@DET|2-2|94-68

94 wins for the Rays? A very real possibility. Like I said before, the key to their season is 9/5 to 9/14, a nine game road trip to Toronto, Boston, and New York. I have them going 3-6 during those games, which could be on the conservative side.

Basically - what I'm trying to say is this - Tampa, barring a collapse from their starting pitching and/or bullpen, will win the American League East with 94 wins.

[Gom]

Holy shit...someone who uses statistics AND logic in an objective manner to formulate a conclusion?

I didn't know this kind of intelligence existed on this board anymore. Hat's off to you.

[TheKilo]

THE NEW YORK YANKEES (61-50)

Date|Opponent|Series Outcome|Record
8-4/8-7|@TEX|2-2|63-52
8-8/8-10|@LAA|1-2|64-54
8/11-8/13|@MIN|2-1|66-55
8/15-8/17|KC|3-0|69-55
8/19-8/21|@TOR|2-1|71-56
8/22-8/24|@BAL|2-1|73-57
8/26-8/28|BOS|2-1|75-58
8/29-8/31|TOR|2-1|77-59
9/1|@DET|0-1|77-60
9/2-9/4|@TB|1-2|78-62
9/5-9/7|@SEA|2-1|80-63
9/8-9/10|@LAA|1-2|81-65
9/12-9/14|TB|2-1|83-66
9/15-9/18|CWS|2-2|85-68
9/19-9/21|BAL|1-2|86-70
9/23-9/25|@TOR|2-1|88-71
9/25-9/28|@BOS|1-2|89-73

Another slow start to the season put the Yankees behind the 8-ball. The challenge for them this season was not a 14.5 game deficit, but a vastly improved division all-around. The Tampa resurgence is obvious, but Toronto has an excellent pitching staff and Baltimore is a lot better than anyone could have imagined.

Still, 89 wins is not a terrible season all things considered (the loss of Wang and the non-existence of Hughes and Kennedy in the rotation have KILLED them.

89 wins will not be enough for a playoff spot, IMO - the Yankees will be on the outside looking in come October.

[TheKilo]

THE BOSTON RED SOX (64-48)

Date|Opponent|Series Outcome|Record
8-4/8-6|@KC|2-1|66-49
8-8/8-11|@CWS|3-1|69-50
8/12-8/14|TEX|2-1|71-51
8/15-8/17|TOR|1-2|72-53
8/18-8/20|@BAL|2-1|74-54
8/22-8/24|@TOR|2-1|76-55
8/26-8/28|@NYY|1-2|77-57
8/29-8/31|CWS|1-2|78-59
9/1-9/3|BAL|3-0|81-59
9/5-9/7|@TEX|1-2|82-61
9/8-9/10|TB|2-1|84-62
9/12-9/14|TOR|1-2|85-64
9/15-9/17|@TB|1-2|86-66
9/19-9/21|@TOR|2-1|88-67
9/22-9/25|CLE|2-2|90-69
9/26-9/28|NYY|2-1|92-70

The Sox have the most home games of all teams remaining. They don't have a terrible schedule the rest of the way (I'd rather have 7 against CWS than LAA).

On an unrelated, and not statistic-related, note - the team seems like it's different now that Manny is gone. Yes, they may not be as talented on paper - but it seems to be a more complete team, without a major distraction and a reduced chance of dissension in the ranks.

It'll be interesting to see how the Central plays out. The Sox benefited in 2004 and 2005 from other divisions beating up on each other down the stretch. The Twins/White Sox could be the benefit of the Rays/Yankees/Sox series in September. I am not sure 92 wins is enough for the WC but I would say that it gives the Sox an excellent chance for October baseball.

[jacksonianmarch]

If the kilometric's history holds, the yankees will be playing in the post season and the sox will be on the outside looking in.

[TheKilo]

If the kilometric's history holds, the yankees will be playing in the post season and the sox will be on the outside looking in.

Yes, because one year tells us a lot.

It can certainly happen - why do you think it will?

[TheKilo]

Another interesting note - at +103, the Sox have the best run differential in the AL.

[jacksonianmarch]

I have no idea how it turns out. Funny thing is, our season will not depend on the Mussina's Pettitte's and Joba's. It will depend on whomever throws the other 2 turns in the rotation. If we get 50% good starts (like this past week with Ponson pitching great and Rasner sucking) then we'll be good. For you guys, the road hurts. If you guys continue your roll at home and even play .450 ball outside of the Fens, then you're in. I just think the sox cannot keep up their pace at home and are gonna need to win this division with their road play. Can they do it? We'll see. The pen has been much better of late. If that keeps up, then they're in the drivers seat

[Gom]

Guys keep in mind one thing. One three game winning streak either way, and the numbers change drastically. The Yankees win the pitching matchup in all four games against Texas. If they can pull off 3 out of 4, it's a brand new ball game.

[example1]

I like that you play these out for us thekilo. It's a lot of speculation but it's fun to read and think about.

Your prediction has the Sox winning at a lower rate (.560) than they have played all year (.571). Given that this team was missing David Ortiz for nearly 2 months and were apparently unlucky (highest run differential in AL), it seems much more likely to me that they will surpass your expectations.

To wit,

To get to 100 wins: .720 (36-14)
To get to 95 wins: .620 (31-19)

Some of the extra wins could be in the two series you have them losing at home to TOR, the home series vs CWS and the 2-2 series at home 9/22-9/25 vs. Cleveland. If the Sox don't do better against these teams at home I will be very disappointed. Of course, they could counter that by going 20-5 on the road. :D That's what fun about guessing. If this team really is gelling thanks to moving Manny (which I suspect they will) then a 95 win season is in the cards. The .620 WP would be the same as their record after their FIRST 50 games (31-19) and 95 wins would be a really good season.

[yankees228]

Nicely done Kilo. As E1 said, these are fun to read and debate over.

The Yankees need two things to happen to exceed the win total you gave them, in my opinion.

They need to really go on a prolonged tear offensively like they did after the ASB last year. There have been times where it looked like that would happen, only to see them fall flat on their faces for the next week.

The lineup, for the rest of the season, should closely resemble this...

Johnny Damon DH
Derek Jeter SS
Bobby Abreu RF
Alex Rodriguez 3B
Jason Giambi 1B
Xavier Nady LF
Robinson Cano 2B
Ivan Rodriguez C
Melky Cabrera CF

For this "tear" to occur a few things need to happen differently than they have been over the course of the season. For one, Derek Jeter really needs to start hitting. So far this year Jeter is slugging .395. This is well below his career average. I understand a drop off is expected, but Jeter's really has been very extreme. It's possible that this will continue, but for the Yankees to be successful they cannot have Jeter hitting like that in the number two spot. If he starts performing better, it really transforms the entire lineup (many more RBI chances for Abreu and Jeter).

Every single year, or so it seems, Giambi goes through hot and cold stretches. But not normal hot and cold stretches, but extreme ones. Giambi's season has really broken down into three parts so far this year. Very poor at the beginning. Scorching hot. And then he has been truly awful for a little over a month. Giambi has been killing the Yankees lately, and if he can pick it up, it would be a huge lift. I'm not saying he's due to get hot, but his trends over the last few years tend to hint that he may do so. He gets tons of RBI chances and he needs to start cashing in.

Robinson Cano needs to get that hand healthy. He just really seemed to be coming around (I know he won't remain as hot as he was), and it would really hurt the Yankees for him to have to miss any more time.

Guys like Damon, Abreu, and A-Rod need to just keep doing what they're doing and remain consistent. Obviously it would really hurt if one of them stopped performing well, and that possibility always exists. However, I don't view these guys as the problem.

Also, Pudge and Melky don't need to do anything spectacular. They're not the worst 8-9 imaginable, and if they're just decent it should be more than enough (or at least one of them).

I'm not going to offer an opinion on Nady because I simply don't know him well enough.

The three through five spots in the rotation are the other key.

Pettitte needs to start pitching much more consistently. He seems to be very up and down, and they need more of a consistent trend from him. He'll get a good test tuesday against the Rangers, which I'll be attending.

The fourth and fifth starters pose the biggest problem. Rasner needs to go. That's clear. And with Ponson it really is playing with fire. He has the ability to put together some good starts, but there always seem to be a lot of base runners and some really good defensive plays need to be made behind him.

The most likely option is Ian Kennedy, who has been pitching very well in AAA. I expect to see him make the start next friday against LAA in Rasner's place. Phil Hughes is a little further down the line, but it remains to be seen if they even want to bring him to the majors this year. It is also still possible that Jarrod Washburn will become a target again if the Mariners lower their asking price.

Also, I know I'm going to get killed here, but another option, and one I would like to test out is Carl Pavano. It appears as if Pavano finally might be healthy (he has made two rehab appearances), and is currently building up his arm strength. During Pavano's time in the majors, albeit brief, he was pretty successful (and certainly better than what Rasner and Ponson have provided). Clearly health still, and always will be a question with him, but if he can remain healthy he can also be effective. I think he can be someone that could prove to be a difference maker for the Yankees. For what it's worth, I'm in no way counting on Carl Pavano for obvious reasons.

Of course, Chamberlain and Mussina also need to keep pitching well.

This is more of a Yankees discussion, so it can be continued in another thread, but as long as we were talking about what each team needs to do down the stretch, I figured it was appropriate to post this here.

[TheKilo]

Guys keep in mind one thing. One three game winning streak either way, and the numbers change drastically. The Yankees win the pitching matchup in all four games against Texas. If they can pull off 3 out of 4, it's a brand new ball game.

Not really - they gain one game on my projection.

[Gom]

I love your avatar.

[TheKilo]

I like that you play these out for us thekilo. It's a lot of speculation but it's fun to read and think about.

Your prediction has the Sox winning at a lower rate (.560) than they have played all year (.571). Given that this team was missing David Ortiz for nearly 2 months and were apparently unlucky (highest run differential in AL), it seems much more likely to me that they will surpass your expectations.

To wit,

To get to 100 wins: .720 (36-14)
To get to 95 wins: .620 (31-19)

Some of the extra wins could be in the two series you have them losing at home to TOR, the home series vs CWS and the 2-2 series at home 9/22-9/25 vs. Cleveland. If the Sox don't do better against these teams at home I will be very disappointed. Of course, they could counter that by going 20-5 on the road. :D That's what fun about guessing. If this team really is gelling thanks to moving Manny (which I suspect they will) then a 95 win season is in the cards. The .620 WP would be the same as their record after their FIRST 50 games (31-19) and 95 wins would be a really good season.

While I don't disagree with your overall point, a couple of things really stand out to me:

1. Last year's Red Sox team underperformed with respect to their pythag record as well. I'm beginning to wonder if JHB's criticisms of Tito are warranted and that this team simply underperforms with him at the helm.

2. The bullpen is not as good as last season - this could be a huge factor as to why they struggle in one run games.

Expanding their current WP% to the rest of the schedule:

25 home games (current home WP% of 71.4%) = 17.8 wins
25 road games (current road WP% of 42.8%) = 10.7 wins

I would venture a guess and say the Red Sox win 28 of the final 50 games....bringing their win total to 92.

[TheKilo]

Update after the last series:

Team|Predicted Record|Actual Record|Differential
Tampa|68-45|68-45|0
New York|63-52|63-52|0
Boston|66-49|66-49|0

[TheKilo]

Update after the last series:

Team|Predicted Record|Actual Record|Differential
Tampa|71-46|71-46|0
New York|64-54|63-55|-1
Boston|69-50|68-51|-1

[TheKilo]

Update after the last series:

Team|Predicted Record|Actual Record|Differential
Tampa|73-47|73-47|0
New York|66-55|64-57|-2
Boston|71-51|71-51|0

[TheKilo]

Sox look to continue their hot hitting this weekend against the Toronto Blue Jays. These Jays are pretty much the polar opposite of the Texas Rangers that just left Fenway. The Blue Jays are the #1 pitching staff in all of baseball.

Positive? Their lineup sucks. Negative? The Sox are throwing Paul Byrd and Clay Buchholz this weekend. If there was ever a weekend for Clay to get back on track, it's this weekend. 2/3 would be fantastic, especially since they are up against Halladay, Marcum, and Burnett.

Tampa goes to Texas after squeaking by in 2/3 against the worst team in baseball right now. Texas will hit, no question. Can Tampa score with them? That's the ultimate question.

As for the Yankees, anything less than a sweep is disappointing. KC is pathetically bad.

[RedSoxRooter]

RSR stat of the minute. The Sox have scored 8 runs or more 22 times this year. 6 times in the last 13 games since Manny left.

[example1]

RSR stat of the minute. The Sox have scored 8 runs or more 22 times this year. 6 times in the last 13 games since Manny left.

E1 random stat:

Here are expected W-L records:

Cubs: 76-46
Sox: 73-49
Rays: 68-53
Phillies: 68-54
Angels: 66-54
Mets: 66-56
Yankees: 65-57
Jays: 65-57

Interestingly, the Sox and Cubs have very similar offensive numbers this season:

Team stats:
Cubs: .281/.358/.448
Sox: .281/.358/.445

The teams are first and second in walks, and unsurprisingly, second and third in runs (behind TX). The Sox are 6th in Runs Allowed, Cubs are 5th (Rays 4th, Angels 7th)

Runs Scored
Sox: 3rd
Rays: 20th

Runs Allowed
Sox: 6th
Rays: 4th

Random numbers, but I think they bode well for the Sox over the long run. I don't know if it is safe to see the Angels as a hands-down favorite in the AL, and the Sox compare favorably with the Rays in terms of run differential (Sox: +128, Rays: +73) and combination of offense and defense overall.

[TheKilo]

Update after the last series:

Team|Predicted Record|Actual Record|Differential
Tampa|74-49|75-48|+1
New York|69-55|66-58|-3
Boston|72-53|71-53|-0.5

[Mr Crunchy]

the toronto games,halliday to be specific,are the exact type of games where manny makes a difference.
he hits all pitching consistantly and halliday has been as dominant as any pitcher ive seen since the petey days...now if they cant bop hrs they need to manufacture and in order to make this happen you need baserunners obviously...
they have trouble against the best as most teams do but we've beaten halliday before,that wasnt the worst part of the weekend,yesterday was.
of course when your starter spots them 6 in the 1st then you dont have much of a shot anyway.

[rician blast]

I wonder if Manny woulda tweaked something before the Halliday game. :dunno:

[TheKilo]

Manny v. Roy Halladay (86 PA)

.266/.314/.443/.757

3 HR, 12 RBI, 12 K

Not world-beating by any stretch. Besides, didn't Bay have two hits?

[Mr Crunchy]

he may have asked out but halliday never owned us,hes been great against us but we've managed to beat him before
manny makes every single hitter on the club better by his mere presence,lets not argue about this as its a given...kevin youkilis is now their best player and as good as he is he still doesnt bring that element to the table...nobody is pitching in fenway park with that ultra confidence with manram on the roster and as good as these guys are now,you've seen what the better pitching staffs have done to us...
im not arguing about moving manny,we had to unfortunetly.
im just explaining the facts of life without him,the offense needs to be somewhat redesigned for life after manny and its difficult to do in august..i still think they win the east or at least make the playoffs.if they do, they still have a shot at repeating but it was horrible losing him when we did and this is despite bay playing up to and better than we expected....think jd drew misses manny?

[BoSox21]

I wonder if Manny woulda tweaked something before the Halliday game. :dunno:

Halladay isnt an especially hard thrower

[jacksonianmarch]

BTW, might want to do a metric on the twins and white sox

[TheKilo]

Update after the last series:

Team|Predicted Record|Actual Record|Differential
Tampa|75-51|77-49|+2
New York|71-56|67-60|-4
Boston|74-54|73-54|-0.5

[TheKilo]

8/4 Update:

Team|Predicted Record|Actual Record|Differential
Tampa|76-53|79-50|+3
New York|73-57|70-60|-3
Boston|76-55|75-55|-0.5

Tampa gains another game in Chicago. When will they fade, if ever? Can Toronto slow them down in the Trop this week?

The Yankees finally gain a game on their projections. This is their shot to get back into the WC chase, if they take 2/3 from the Sox I'll say they're back in contention (although 4 back, with the Twins and/or White Sox out there makes catching the WC leader more difficult). The stars are aligned for them to do so as I expect them to pound Wakefield and Byrd, the question is can they beat Lester?

The Sox on the other hand can effectively bury the Yanks if they take 2/3 as they will be 6 up in the loss column.

[jacksonianmarch]

the yankees will not jump back in this. They need to take all 3 vs the sox IMO and that entails the sox not beating the living piss out of Sidney Fatson. Granted, the loss of Manny all of a sudden makes Moose a bit more effective against the sox, but the series needs to be swept. That being said, the Twins are going nowhere and are likely gonna take it to the rack as ALC champs. The White Sox are the wild card IMO. If they can play well vs some stiff competition, then the WC could come out of the central this yr.

[TheKilo]

Sidney Fatson has been surprisingly effective. I think the wild card in this whole series is Tim Wakefield. If he can give them a QS then the Sox have a real good shot at 2/3.

[jacksonianmarch]

I agree. We have hit Wakey pretty well of late (he used to dominate us) and Byrd has been hit or miss off us of late (we used to own him). To be honest with you, only one of your top 3 throws in the series, while our top two are going, so I expect 2 of 3. Anything less, and you might as well toss in the towel.

[jmcc]

I agree with the sentiments about the series coming down to the pitching of the unknown variables. If Wake succeeds and Sidney doesn't, it goes to the Sox, and vice versa.
A good August series to look forward to.

[rician blast]

while our top two are going

Pavano is pitching?

[yankees228]

I agree. We have hit Wakey pretty well of late (he used to dominate us) and Byrd has been hit or miss off us of late (we used to own him). To be honest with you, only one of your top 3 throws in the series, while our top two are going, so I expect 2 of 3. Anything less, and you might as well toss in the towel.

I thought you already tossed in the towel?

[jacksonianmarch]

I did. I am saying management and players. When our rotation includes Rasner, Ponson, and Pavano as well as a 5 game deficit with 30 or so games to play, the towel is in.

[soxfan17881]

...Granted, the loss of Manny all of a sudden makes Moose a bit more effective against the sox...

http://i248.photobucket.com/albums/gg189/rassmuss1/blog/bayvmussina.jpg

Very little data to go on, but so far so good.

[TheKilo]

8/30 Update:

Team|Predicted Record|Actual Record|Differential
Tampa|78-54|81-51|+3
New York|75-58|71-62|-4
Boston|77-57|77-56|+0.5

[Gom]

I did. I am saying management and players. When our rotation includes Rasner, Ponson, and Pavano as well as a 5 game deficit with 30 or so games to play, the towel is in.
No, but Cashman is doing a great job. Really. Like not claiming Byrd. He sucks...oh wait, he only outpitched Ponson.

Cashman for Exec of the Year.

[TheKilo]

8/31 Update:

Team|Predicted Record|Actual Record|Differential
Tampa|81-54|84-51|+3
New York|77-59|72-64|-5
Boston|78-59|79-57|+1.5

Key Takeaways from this weekend's series:

NYY - Stick a fork in this team, they are done. 7 back of the Red Sox, 5 behind the White Sox. Ponson and Rasner in the rotation. 10 game roadie coming up. All things spell the end of the Yankee postseason streak.

Coming up - Makeup game at Detroit, 3 in TB. Maybe they could help the Sox out a little bit? Not likely. Expect a 1-3 record the next 4.

BOS - The Red Sox and Yankees have one thing in common - hopes for a division title are dead. Difference is, the Sox have a tremendous chance at the postseason and have put themselves in a great position heading into September. I love the way this team is playing right now (tonight's clunker aside) - if Beckett comes back healthy, I like their chances against any team in the AL. Lots of home games in September. When Drew and Lowell come back healthy, they'll be in great shape for the stretch run.

5.5 is too much to make up, however.

Coming up - Three against the lowly O's. Byrd, Lester, DiceK. Really looking for a sweep but I'll take 2/3.

TB - The team that won't die swept a terrible O's team this weekend. No signs of slowing down, they'll get Longoria back soon. Kazmir, Shields, Garza is a fordmiable top 3 come playoff time.

Coming up - Three against the Yankees. Continue to bring pain and misery to Yankee fans!

[TheKilo]

9/6 Update:

Team|Predicted Record|Actual Record|Differential
Tampa|82-56|85-53|+3
New York|78-62|75-65|-3
Boston|81-59|82-57|+1.5

[TheKilo]

9/11 Update:

Team|Predicted Record|Actual Record|Differential
Tampa|84-60|87-57|+3
New York|81-65|77-69|-4
Boston|84-62|85-62|+2.5

[TheKilo]

9/19 Update (at conclusion of last series)

Team|Predicted Record|Actual Record|Differential
Tampa|87-63|89-61|+2
New York|85-68|82-71|-3
Boston|86-66|89-63|+3