Let's Talk Dice-K...

[CalvnHobs6]

He is having quite the statistical anomaly of a season right now. Here are some of the more impressive ones...

Take away his one St. Louis start (1 IP, 7 ER) and he has an ERA of...2.00 even (well, 1.996).

He is only giving up 0.73 hits per inning pitched. Imagine if he had his walks under control? He is currently walking 3.53 per start.

He can't be touched on the road. Opponents are hitting just .158 against him.

He buckles down in tight situations...opponents are hitting .133 against him w/2 outs RISP.

Any other interesting ones people want to throw in?

[BoSox21]

he's having an amazing season but he can hardly ever get past 5-6 IP per start because of how much his walks elevate his pitch count, which sucks considering the state of the bullpen.

he really doesn't allow a lot of hits either but because of the walks, it elevates his WHIP a bit above the league leaders

but the bottom line is, he gets too much criticism considering the tremendous season he's having

[rician blast]

He is only giving up 0.73 hits per inning pitched. Imagine if he had his walks under control? He is currently walking 3.53 per start.



I'd argue that the low hits against are to some extent a product of his being "effectively wild." If the walks decrease dramatically, I suspect the hits against would increase a bit.

Of course 3.5 per BBs start (when he isn't going deep into games, typically) is way too high to keep getting away with.

[ORS]

I think what we are seeing is effective wildness. Actually, maybe it's not wildness because he seems to be intent on nibbling. He's throwing it roughly where he wants to, but he's batshy and not giving in. He seems to be of the mindset that he'll allow a walk, but he won't throw a meatball. Whatever the case, it's unlikely to last. His BABIP is a ridiculously low .249. History says that won't last. When the other shoe drops, he'll probably approach his FIP (3.98 - not bad, but not this good) in ERA.

EDIT: And, he might be walking 3.53 per start, but he's walking 5.64 per 9 IP. Not good.

[BoSox21]

the only problem I see with him is that he does try to nibble too often, like ORS said. he's most effective when he trusts his stuff and attacks the strikezone and forces batters to swing more, keeping them on their toes. otherwise, they just wait him out and get the free pass

[TheKilo]

DiceK has been quite good this year - but the more I think about it the more I realize he doesn't nibble.

He's wild. Absolutely. But when he misses, he misses badly. Nibbling implies he's just off the plate and looking to catch the corner as it were. He's nowhere near that.

I also heard something interesting - don't remember the source, so take it with a grain of salt - is that the Japanese pitcher prefers giving up the walk to a hitter instead of giving up a hit because of some respect issue. Not too sure where I heard that but it is another interesting wrinkle.

If he cut down the walks just a little bit he'd be a crazy effective pitcher. I think he already is - but he could be front-line starter material.

[Jayhawk Bill]

Dice-K? This is the best I expected when Boston signed him. He might well retain a sub-.300 BABIP--maybe .280--because he lives on the corners and throws such a number of differing pitches.

Three reasons Dice-K might be better this year, besides luck:

1) Tek knows him, and Tek can call pitches for him better this year.

2) Pitch f/x is in universal use. The UTexas study showed systemic bias against Asian pitchers by umps, but they can't do that repeatedly with Pitch f/x in use.

3) Tito didn't blow out Dice-K's arm in the first half.

[Cityofchampions33]

Is it me or does he not sue that change-up of his anymore? Seems to be just fastballs n sliders. Reason I ask is because I thought that was a very sharp pitch and always wondered why even last season he used it very sparingly.

[BoSox34]

I think he'll be fine. His walks are hurting him right now and driving up his pitch count but he was wonderful against Seattle. Hopefully he can give a solid 7-8 innings at least every other start the rest of the way. That'd be perfect.

[jacksonianmarch]

Lets talk DiceK.

He has power pitcher, ace type stuff. But he also has shown a regression of his control. Is it fear? Is it on purpose? The HR allowed from last yr are WAY down. So are the K's. He's 3/4 of the way to his BB total of last yr in half the starts. But his H allowed are WAY down too. He is an enigma. Effectively wild sounds like a good way to call it. But at the same time, it is draining on the pen. In 9 of his 17 starts, he did not get through 6IP. For a SP with a sub 3ERA, that is poor. Last yr his QS% was 56%, which wasnt bad (18/32) when you consider how he ended the yr. This yr, it is 47% which is very enigmatic for a player with his ERA. Last yr, even with his poor end to the yr, he average 6.4IP per start. This yr, it is 5.8IP/start. His P/IP and P/PA are up as well, but it seems Francona is pulling him earlier as he is throwing 10 less pitchers per start.

Overall, the guy is an enigma. Walks the park but doesnt give up runs. Has a 90+% WP this yr and a sub 3ERA yet doesnt give innings. Halfway through his yr (remember, DL stint) he has accounted for 10 more bullpen innings compared to where he was last yr.

[BoSox21]

ill take a spike in walks if it means a decline in homers any day. I dont think anyone here would take '07 Dice-K over '08 Dice-K

[jacksonianmarch]

08 DiceK with the 07 pen would have been better.

[BoSox21]

he's got 11 wins in 17 starts, the bullpen isn't doing that badly for him